TotalEnergies CEO States “Europe Can Cope with Ban on Russian Gas”

Energy News Beat

In a bold statement that underscores Europe’s shifting energy landscape, Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of TotalEnergies SE, declared that Europe is well-positioned to withstand a proposed ban on Russian gas imports by 2028. Speaking at an energy conference, Pouyanne highlighted the rapid development of alternative liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacities, particularly from the United States and Qatar, as key to filling the gap left by Russian supplies. This assertion comes as the European Commission pushes to sever energy ties with Moscow by the end of 2027, a move driven by geopolitical tensions following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

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Europe’s Gas Needs: A Snapshot

To understand the feasibility of this transition, it’s critical to examine Europe’s natural gas consumption and the scale of the challenge. In 2024, the European Union consumed approximately 350 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, with demand varying across member states. Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, accounts for roughly 80 bcm annually, followed by Italy (65 bcm), France (40 bcm), and Spain (35 bcm). Smaller nations like the Netherlands, Poland, and Hungary each consume between 15-25 bcm, while countries like Greece and Croatia have seen rising demand, with Q1 2025 gas use up 8% year-on-year to 119 bcm across the EU.Prior to 2022, Russia supplied about 45% of the EU’s gas imports, or roughly 150 bcm annually, via pipelines like Nord Stream and TurkStream, as well as LNG. By 2024, this share had plummeted to 19%, with Russian gas deliveries totaling around 19.3 bcm in the first half of the year. The proposed ban aims to eliminate this remaining dependency, forcing Europe to source an additional 60-70 bcm annually to replace Russian supplies entirely.

Alternative Gas Sources: Can They Deliver?

Pouyanne’s confidence stems from the global LNG market’s rapid expansion. He noted that “the LNG market will be well supplied from 2027, 2028, and 2029,” pointing to new export capacities coming online. Here’s a breakdown of the primary alternative sources Europe is banking on:

United States: The U.S. has emerged as a cornerstone of Europe’s energy security, with LNG exports to the EU surging since 2022. In 2024, the U.S. supplied over 50 bcm of LNG to Europe, and projects like Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass and Freeport LNG are set to add 20-30 bcm of annual capacity by 2028. Germany, previously reliant on Russian pipelines, has built new LNG terminals, such as Wilhelmshaven, to handle U.S. imports. However, rising U.S. domestic demand and potential trade disruptions under a Trump administration could pose risks.
Qatar: Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, is ramping up production through its North Field expansion, aiming to add 40 bcm of annual capacity by 2029. Europe has secured long-term contracts with QatarEnergy, with countries like France and Italy expected to receive 10-15 bcm annually. Qatar’s reliability and proximity make it a strategic partner, though global competition for its LNG could drive prices higher.
Norway: As Europe’s largest pipeline gas supplier, Norway delivered approximately 120 bcm to the EU in 2024, close to its maximum capacity. While Norway’s fields are mature, investments in new exploration could sustain output. However, significant increases beyond current levels are unlikely, making Norway a stable but limited contributor.
Other LNG Suppliers: Australia, Canada, and emerging exporters like Mozambique are also in the mix. Australia supplied 10 bcm to Europe in 2024, but its focus on Asian markets limits its role. Canada’s LNG Canada project, set to start in 2025, could provide 5-10 bcm by 2028, while Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG may add 5 bcm by 2030. These sources, while promising, face logistical and timeline challenges.
Domestic and Renewable Alternatives: Europe is accelerating its transition to renewables, with initiatives like the Fit-for-55 plan aiming to boost green energy. Biomethane production is projected to reach 35 bcm by 2030, and hydrogen projects could offset 10-15 bcm of gas demand. However, these solutions are long-term and cannot fully bridge the gap by 2028. Energy efficiency measures and demand reduction, which cut EU gas use by 15% since 2022, will also play a role.

Challenges and Risks

While the LNG market’s growth is promising, the transition is not without hurdles. First, global LNG demand is rising, with Asia projected to absorb 60% of new supply by 2030. Europe may face stiff competition, potentially driving up prices. In 2022-2023, energy price shocks triggered inflation and economic slowdown, and a repeat could strain industries and households.

Second, infrastructure constraints persist. Germany’s new LNG terminals are operational, but countries like Hungary and Slovakia, reliant on Russian pipeline gas via TurkStream, lack access to coastal import facilities. These nations have resisted the ban, citing energy security risks and potential price spikes.

Third, legal and contractual issues loom. Companies like TotalEnergies and Spain’s Naturgy hold long-term Russian LNG contracts extending into the 2030s. The EU’s proposal includes invoking “force majeure” to terminate these agreements, but this could spark lawsuits from Russian suppliers, costing millions in legal fees.

Finally, geopolitical risks, including U.S. trade policies under a potential Trump administration, could disrupt LNG flows. Posts on X have highlighted concerns about “rising global tensions” and “Trump’s trade wars” threatening supply stability, reflecting market unease.

The Bigger Picture

Pouyanne’s optimism reflects a broader trend: Europe’s determination to achieve energy independence and align with climate goals. The EU has already slashed Russian gas imports by two-thirds since 2022, a remarkable feat given its historical reliance. The proposed ban, backed by trade and energy legislation to bypass vetoes from Hungary and Slovakia, signals political resolve.

However, the transition’s success hinges on execution. Securing 60-70 bcm of non-Russian gas by 2028 is achievable if U.S. and Qatari projects stay on track and Europe continues diversifying. Yet, price volatility, infrastructure gaps, and geopolitical wildcards could test the bloc’s resilience. As TotalEnergies’ CEO suggests, Europe is on the cusp of a new energy era—but it must navigate a complex path to get there.For now, the message is clear: Europe is ready to turn off the Russian gas tap. Whether it can do so without economic pain remains the trillion-dollar question.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, European Commission data, posts on X.