U.S. Needs 5,000 Miles of New High-Voltage Lines Annually — It Only Built 392

Energy News Beat

The U.S. electric grid faces a critical bottleneck: explosive growth in electricity demand from AI data centers, manufacturing resurgence, and electrification is outpacing the physical expansion of the high-voltage transmission network that moves power across regions. According to energy economists Leonard Hyman and William Tilles in a new OilPrice.com analysis, the country needs roughly 5,000 miles of new high-voltage transmission lines each year to maintain reliability and support economic growth. Yet between 2022 and 2025, the U.S. added an average of just 392 miles annually — with only 402 miles added in 2025. This represents a historic low, down sharply from a peak of nearly 4,000 miles in 2013.

The Grid Is Not a Set of Pipes — It’s a Bathtub

Electricity does not flow directly from a generator to a consumer like water through a dedicated pipe. Instead, power “sloshes across the entire network seeking the path of least resistance,” the authors explain. Building new generation or large loads (such as data centers) and simply attaching them to the existing grid without expanding transmission capacity overloads the system. A power plant sited next to a data center still congests the broader network, reducing overall reliability rather than solving it. This is precisely the problem the user highlights: the grid is being “added onto” with more nameplate capacity (new generation) and new demand, but without the corresponding build-out of transmission infrastructure needed for true resilience.

Decades of siting bottlenecks, regulatory delays, and permitting hurdles have made large-scale transmission expansion extremely difficult. The result is a “constipated grid” that cannot efficiently deliver power where and when it is needed most.

Surging Demand Meets an Aging, Underbuilt System

Demand is surging. AI-driven data centers alone could require an additional ~100 GW of peak capacity by 2030, according to JPMorgan research. Manufacturing reshoring and electrification add further pressure.

JPMorgan Chase has repeatedly warned that America’s aging grid infrastructure now constitutes a national security risk. In March 2026, the bank stated that decades-old networks are vulnerable to extreme weather, cyberattacks, and other threats, making investments in grid resilience “increasingly attractive.” A follow-up note in May highlighted that delays in new generation and transmission “add further strain to a system already under stress” and that the costs “land hardest on the families least able to absorb them.”

These warnings align with broader reliability assessments. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and U.S. Department of Energy have flagged elevated risks of outages in multiple regions, with one DOE analysis projecting that blackouts could increase dramatically (up to 100 times in some scenarios) by 2030 if firm capacity retirements continue without adequate replacement and transmission support.

Recent real-world stress tests underscore the urgency. During the July 2026 heat wave, PJM Interconnection — the nation’s largest grid operator, serving 67 million people — issued “Transmission Security – Emergency Use of Back-Up Generator Warning” notifications and secured DOE emergency authority to potentially curtail large loads or activate on-site generation if needed. While no full-scale blackouts occurred, the events served as a clear warning shot of capacity and transmission constraints under peak stress.

The Core Problem: Nameplate Capacity Without Grid Resilience

As the OilPrice authors emphasize, simply adding more power plants or data centers to the existing network does not solve the problem — it often exacerbates congestion and reduces the grid’s ability to withstand contingencies (weather events, equipment failures, or sudden demand spikes). True resilience requires expanding the high-voltage backbone so power can move efficiently across regions and balance variable resources with firm generation.

Without this expansion:

• New generation and loads create localized congestion.
• Reliability margins shrink.
• The risk of rolling blackouts or emergency measures rises.
• Economic growth tied to abundant, reliable power is jeopardized.

Recommendations from Industry Analysts

Hyman and Tilles offer blunt advice: “Fix the grid or stop waiting and build off-grid.” They argue against approving ambitious data center or nuclear projects unless they include meaningful transmission upgrades, as attaching them to an already overloaded system will only make reliability worse. Regulators have tried high allowed returns and market signals for two decades with little success — it may be time for a more determined approach to overcoming siting and regulatory barriers.

Complementary recommendations from grid experts (Americans for a Clean Energy Grid and Grid Strategies) include:

• Proactive, multi-value regional transmission planning under FERC Order 1920.
• Accelerated use of reconductoring and advanced technologies on existing corridors for faster capacity gains.
• Stronger interregional transmission links to improve resilience and move power from where it is abundant to where it is needed.

JPMorgan similarly stresses the economic and security case for resilience investments, including microgrids and hardened infrastructure for critical loads.

The Path Forward

The numbers are stark: the U.S. built transmission at roughly one-tenth the pace required in recent years while demand growth has accelerated dramatically. Continuing to add nameplate capacity without expanding the transmission network is a recipe for higher costs, reduced reliability, and greater blackout risk.

Policymakers, regulators, utilities, and developers must prioritize transmission expansion alongside new generation. Faster permitting reform, streamlined siting processes, and targeted incentives for high-voltage lines are essential. In the meantime, off-grid or behind-the-meter solutions for hyperscale loads may become more common.

We highly recommend people take an assessment of their homes and plan for outages now. Those that have power backups and plans walk through emergencies with less stress. Those without preparation are stressed, and under the right conditions may face life-or-death choices.

The grid is the backbone of the modern economy and national security. Right now, it is being asked to carry far more weight than it was designed for — and it is showing the strain.

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