Energy News Beat
In a timely July 20, 2026, article for City Journal, energy analyst Mark P. Mills dismantles the persistent narrative of an “energy transition” — the idea that wind, solar, and batteries will soon replace oil, natural gas, and coal.
Mills, executive director of the National Center for Energy Analytics and author of The Cloud Revolution, argues that the world is not transitioning away from hydrocarbons. Instead, it is adding energy from every source while hydrocarbons remain foundational. His analysis gains fresh urgency amid the AI-driven surge in electricity demand and the ongoing disruptions from tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
AI Boom Exposes the Limits of Intermittent Power
Mills highlights how artificial intelligence and data centers are creating an unprecedented demand shock. Large data centers already exceed 200 MW — enough to power 100,000 homes — and gigawatt-scale facilities are coming online rapidly. In just the past six years, eight such massive loads have connected to U.S. grids, with hundreds more planned.
History shows that efficiency gains rarely reduce overall energy consumption; they expand economic activity and demand. Natural gas is stepping up to meet much of this new baseload need in the near term, with nuclear and renewables playing smaller supporting roles. This is classic energy addition, not substitution.
The same logic applies globally. Oil still powers over 95% of world transportation. Per-capita oil use has remained essentially flat for two decades even as total consumption rises with population and wealth. Natural gas and coal use have also increased significantly. Renewables have grown but have not displaced hydrocarbons at scale.
Hormuz Crisis Reinforces Hydrocarbon Centrality and Supply-Line Vulnerabilities
The recent U.S.-Iran tensions and repeated disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have delivered a stark reminder of energy realities. Iran’s attempts to assert control over the waterway — through which roughly 20% of global oil and significant LNG volumes traditionally flow — created supply shocks, price volatility, and exposed dangerous chokepoints.
Nations dependent on Gulf exports are now racing to diversify routes. Iraq, which relies on the Strait for the vast majority of its crude exports, is accelerating projects to bypass it entirely.
U.S. Majors Help Iraq Build Bypass Pipelines and Reduce Iranian Leverage
In July 2026, during Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s visit to Washington, U.S. companies signed roughly $60 billion in deals with Iraq. Key players include:
- Chevron — Signed multiple agreements focused on boosting oil production and investing in new pipeline infrastructure to create alternative export routes to world markets, explicitly framed as enhancing energy security.
- ConocoPhillips — Acquired a 42% stake in BP’s giant Kirkuk oil-field complex (over 3 billion barrels of resources).
- ExxonMobil — Pursuing major upstream deals, including potential work on fields like Majnoon.
A Qatar-U.S. consortium involving Chevron, TI Capital, and Qatar’s UCC Holding is advancing studies for oil export pipelines from southern Iraq (Basra/Haditha) northward to Kirkuk and then onward to Turkey (Ceyhan) or westward through Syria to the Mediterranean port of Baniyas.
These routes would allow Iraqi oil to reach global markets without transiting the Strait of Hormuz — directly undermining Iran’s leverage. Iraq has also moved aggressively to cut its dependence on Iranian natural gas imports, which previously supplied 30-40% of its power generation. Western-backed projects, including gas capture at Kirkuk and TotalEnergies’ integrated gas developments in the south, are helping fill the gap.
Iran’s control of the Strait created the crisis that made these bypass projects politically and commercially viable. The result: stronger energy security through diversified hydrocarbon supply lines.
Europe Doubles Down on Renewables — The UK Signals Pragmatism
Mark Mills notes that Europe’s reflexive response to the Hormuz disruptions has been to “speed up the energy transition.” EU energy ministers have discussed accelerating renewables and electrification as a security measure in response to the Middle East crisis, with initiatives like AccelerateEU pushing harder on wind, solar, and grid expansion.
Yet real-world data continues to show the limits of this approach. Renewables have grown, but Europe remains exposed to fossil fuel price shocks and import dependence.
In the United Kingdom, political shifts are highlighting the tension between ideology and reality. With new leadership under consideration following recent turmoil, statements and signals point toward greater openness to North Sea oil and gas development for energy security and economic reasons — including potential new drilling or expanded tiebacks to existing fields.
However, entrenched bureaucratic resistance and climate-focused elements within government and regulatory bodies continue to slow or block full commitment, echoing patterns that have constrained previous administrations. The result is a half-hearted embrace of domestic hydrocarbons even as global events underscore their necessity.
Not a Transition — An Addition for Security and Resilience
Mark P. Mills is correct: the world is not undergoing an energy transition. It is experiencing energy addition. Hydrocarbons remain indispensable for transportation, industry, chemicals, and now the massive new loads from AI. Intermittent renewables and batteries cannot replace them at the required scale, cost, or reliability.
The Hormuz crisis and the AI boom together expose two non-negotiable priorities:
- Reliable, dispatchable energy — primarily natural gas and oil in the near-to-medium term.
- Diversified, secure supply lines that avoid single-point chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
Iraq’s pipeline deals with Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil exemplify pragmatic responses to these realities. Europe’s renewed push for wind and solar, and the UK’s internal struggle over North Sea resources, reveal the political friction between ideology and geopolitics.
The myth of transition persists because it ignores physics, economics, and human nature. Reality, as Mills reminds us, does not go away when we stop believing in it. The future belongs to those who add secure, abundant energy from all viable sources — starting with the hydrocarbons that still power the modern world.
We appreciate Mark and his work. He has been on the Energy News Beat Podcast several times, and we are reaching out to see about getting him back on.
Appendix: Sources and Links
- Mark P. Mills, “The Myth of an Energy Transition,” City Journal, July 20, 2026: https://www.city-journal.org/article/energy-transition-oil-coal-gas-ai
- Rigzone: “ConocoPhillips Joins USA Firms Vowing $60B for Iraqi Deals,” July 17, 2026: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/conocophillips_joins_usa_firms_vowing_60b_for_iraqi_deals-17-jul-2026-184157-article/
- AGBI: “Qatar-US consortium set to sign deal to build Iraq oil pipelines,” July 6, 2026: https://www.agbi.com/oil-and-gas/2026/07/qatar-us-consortium-set-to-sign-deal-to-build-iraq-oil-pipelines/
- AP/Yahoo Finance: “US oil firms sign deals with Iraq to develop alternative shipping routes,” July 17, 2026: https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/us-oil-firms-sign-deals-193623744.html
- OilPrice.com: “Iraq Pulls the Plug on Iranian Gas,” December 23, 2025: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraq-Pulls-the-Plug-on-Iranian-Gas.html
- BBC: “Burnham to announce plans for new North Sea oil and gas drilling,” July 18, 2026: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c935yx2z9d4o
- EU Energy Council results on Middle East/Hormuz impacts and post-2030 policy, June 2026 (via INSIGHT EU Monitoring).
- Additional reporting on Hormuz tensions from Reuters, New York Times, and ISW (Institute for the Study of War), June 2026.
These developments confirm that energy security in 2026 is being built the old-fashioned way: with pipelines, contracts, and hydrocarbons — not slogans about transition.
The post Mark P. Mills Covers the Myth of an Energy Transition appeared first on Energy News Beat.
