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Returning to Geneva Dry this April is Torbjorn Gjervik, who since last year’s summit has been promoted to CEO of Western Bulk Chartering, a Norwegian firm which tends to have anywhere between 100 and 150 ships on its books at any given time. While looking forward to the event, Gjervik is not overly enthused about immediate dry bulk prospects.
“We are not very optimistic for 2025, especially in the first half and especially in the sub-cape sector,” he says in frank conversation with Splash.
Supply growth will outpace demand growth by a margin, Gjervik reckons as the orderbook has grown significantly, and tonne-mile-adjusted demand lacks the support it had from a disrupted Panama Canal in the first half of 2024. A potential normalisation of the Suez Canal traffic is also weighing in as a potential negative factor later on this year, he warns.
The secondhand market is where you will find the better deals this year
The year 2025 has not got off to a strong start for the dry bulk shipping industry – it rarely does between Christmas and Chinese New Year. The industry is now speculating as to when the current plunge might bottom out.
“We believe the spot market in the coming months will trade at levels that, for many, are below cash breakeven. This could lead to financial strain for less resilient players in the industry,” the Norwegian tells Splash.
For this reason, Gjervik foresees prices for secondhand tonnage coming down, particularly for older or less efficient vessels.
Although prices for newbuildings are also likely to decline, the CEO expects this asset class to be much more resilient, and the gap between newbuildss and secondhand vessels ought to widen.
“Tight yard capacity and forward delivery schedules will support this resilience. We therefore believe the secondhand market is where you will find the better deals this year,” Gjervik advises.
The Norwegian assumed the top job at Western Bulk last September having served many roles within the company including heading up the North Atlantic as well as a seven-year stint in Singapore.
Gjervik is one of more than 100 top shipping names due to attend Geneva Dry on April 28 and 29, due on stage for the Chartering Spotlight session.
“I’m looking forward to seeing people from the industry and hear what’s on their mind—it’s a people’s business, after all,” he says.
Other confirmed shipowner speakers include the likes of 2020 Bulkers, Ariston Navigation, Cetus Maritime, CTM, d’Amico Dry, Drydel Shipping, Fednav, G2 Ocean, Himalaya Shipping, Mandarin Shipping, Marfin Management, Nova Marine Carriers, Oceanbulk Maritime, Precious Shipping, Seanergy Maritime, Star Bulk, SwissMarine, Taylor Maritime Investments, United Maritime, and Wah Kwong.
Confirmed chartering speakers for this year’s event – taking place at the Hotel President Wilson on the shore of Lake Geneva – include Anglo American, Cargill, Eramet, Fortescue, Heidelberg Materials Trading, Montfort Trading, Trafigura and Vale.
Geneva Dry brings together all elements of the commodities shipping sector to host the ultimate dry bulk shipping event.
Split into sectors, panels will bring together analysts, financiers, miners, traders and shipowners to discuss where the markets are headed. Sessions include:
– Minor Bulks
– Agri-commodities
– Coal
– Iron Ore
– Decarbonisation
The full Geneva Dry agenda can be accessed here.
Geneva Dry registration, at just $780, can be accessed here.
Special Geneva Dry hotel room rates can be found here.
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