The battle for 5% that will shape Germany’s next government

Energy News Beat

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BERLIN/POTSDAM – The lack of spring in Christian Lindner’s step heralds the murky electoral prospects of Germany’s liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP). 

Just a few months ago, the FDP leader was Germany’s finance minister, revelling in the role as Europe’s primary austerity advocate, who had the French begging for mercy just by mentioning that he was worried about their budget deficit. 

Yet, since the FDP exited Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition government, Lindner has been relegated to the opposition benches, fighting for his party’s political survival.

Framed as the troublemaker in an unpopular coalition, the FDP is mostly polling below Germany’s electoral threshold of 5%. If it stays there, Germany’s long-standing kingmaker party would fail to enter parliament in the upcoming national elections for only the second time since 1949.

“Those who want to preserve the potential of a liberal party in Germany’s parliament must come to the flag now,” Lindner pleaded on Sunday at the FDP party conference in Potsdam.

His party is not the only influential actor caught in limbo, struggling to stay relevant. The list of those hovering around 5% includes the controversial left-populist Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and Die Linke, Germany’s main far-left party.

Who makes it to the cut remains unpredictable until before election day, given that the decisions could come down to 1% of the vote in each case and a special constitutional clause.

Should they pass the threshold, they would significantly impact the formation of Germany’s future government by shifting majorities.

One poll, published by pollster Forsa two weeks ago, predicted that all three smaller parties would miss the mark, reducing the number of groups in the Bundestag from seven to four – the lowest value since 2017.

That would be a gift for the frontrunners, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), who are polling at around 30%. That vote share translates into some 37% of the seats in parliament when shared among fewer parties, allowing the CDU/CSU to obtain a government majority with just one additional coalition partner.

Just a few days before, another pollster, YouGov, saw both FDP (5%) and BSW (7%) above the threshold, however.

If Die Linke (4%) also jumps the hurdle, the CDU/CSU’s seat share would shrink to 30% and require a three-party coalition, which many dread after Scholz’s experiment ended in infighting.

CDU’s lead candidate, Friedrich Merz, has repeatedly stressed that only an action-oriented government that isn’t constantly fighting can turn around Germany’s ailing economy.

Wagenknecht’s woes

The stakes are high and the means desperate. 

Die Linke, which emerged from the ruling party of socialist East Germany, abandoned the 5% race early on and instead launched ‘Mission Silver Hair’ – a plan to exploit a loophole in Germany’s electoral system.

Germans cast two votes in the elections, one for an MP in their local constituency and one for a party. The latter determines how many seats all parties that reach 5% get. But there is an exception: if a party that falls below 5% wins at least three constituencies, it still gets the share of seats it would get if there was no threshold.

Die Linke is not only close to winning three constituencies, for which it fielded three popular, retirement-age party grandees. Ironically, it is also enjoying momentum that could see it reach 5% in the final ballot.

It benefits from the centrist shift of the Green Party, a direct competitor, noted Jan-Philipp Thomeczek, a political scientist at the University of Potsdam.

That is also a blow to Sahra Wagenknecht, the shooting star of German politics, who had abandoned Die Linke last year to launch BSW – a socially conservative left-wing party that strikes a conciliatory tone on Russia.

Intermittently, her new party was flying high in the polls, riding a wave of concerns over an escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Some of that support, however, may have been distorted by early successes in regional elections and has waned as the war has not featured prominently in the campaign, said Thomeczek, adding that the current race was too close to call.

It could eventually become a fight to the death.

“At the national level, it will be difficult for both parties to stay above 5% at the same time because they have a larger overlap in potential voters,” Thomeczek said.

To motivate her supporters, Wagenknecht has tied the election to her political future. “Anyone who isn’t in the Bundestag is no longer relevant in German politics,” she said.

Milei with hedge clippers

Meanwhile, Lindner has embraced his new pariah status, playing to an image as the coalition’s fiscally hawkish paymaster and to revelations that his party secretly plotted the breakdown of Scholz’s dysfunctional coalition.

He has notably cited tech billionaire Elon Musk and Argentinian President Javier Milei as role models for Germany, who are both controversially cutting back on state spending and institutions. After backlash, he backpedalled and recommended using metaphorical hedge clippers for slashing regulation instead of Milei’s infamous chainsaw.

In Potsdam, Lindner promised to save Germany’s ailing economy with similarly “disruptive ideas”, slamming “new government spending, new subsidies, new constraints, new social standards, new social programmes.”

FDP officials put on a confident front, with many briefing that 5% is possible. Unlike in the CDU/CSU camp, the prospect of a three-party coalition was welcomed, as it would potentially allow the FDP to join a government with the CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats (SPD).

Europe’s profligate spenders should not cheer too soon. Paymaster Lindner might come back.

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TGS adds to 4D streamer backlog offshore Norway

Energy News Beat

EuropeOffshore

Oslo-listed surveyor and seismic data specialist TGS has won two new contracts offshore Norway.

The work scope covers 4D streamer acquisition projects, one in the North Sea and one in the Norwegian Sea, the company said Monday.

The projects are scheduled to be acquired back-to-back, starting in June this year. They are estimated to last about 80 days.

The client and financial details of the new contracts that take TGS’ 4D streamer summer backlog to six have not been disclosed.

In mid-January, the company secured four 4D streamer contracts, three in the North Sea and one in the Barents Sea, with a combined duration of about 180 days. This was followed by two offshore wind site survey contracts offshore the UK.

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Crew evacuate laden suezmax in Russia after engine room explosions

Energy News Beat

EuropeTankers

A series of explosions yesterday in the engine room of a 22-year-old suezmax at the Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga has put neighbour Finland on alert. 

The Turkish-owned Koala tanker, laden with 130,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil, was about to set off from Ust-Luga when three explosions ripped through the engine room, forcing the crew to evacuate. 

As the engine room flooded, the vessel’s stern sank to rest on the seabed.

Russian officials maintained there has been no oil spill to date, but Finland put its oil spill response capabilities on alert as a precautionary measure. 

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South Africa cracks down on polluting ships

Energy News Beat

AfricaRegulatory

Following a series of casualties off its coast, South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa has signed the Marine Pollution (Prevention of Pollution from Ships) Amendment Bill into law, strengthening South Africa’s ability to combat ship-related pollution. 

Polluting ships now face stricter laws with fines of up to R10m ($541,000) for ships in contravention of air and sewage pollution laws.

The Red Sea shipping crisis has seen marine traffic leap around the South African coastline over the past year as vessels avoid the Houthis of Yemen and opt to sail around Africa on voyages between Asia and Europe. 

Salvors spent much of last week cleaning up oil leaks from the wreck of the Ultra Galaxy general cargo vessel (pictured) that ran aground and broke apart off the western coast of South Africa in July last year.

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Poland to send abandoned Russian tanker for demolition

Energy News Beat

Poland has ordered the removal of a Russian product tanker which has been stranded in the Port of Gdynia for over seven years.

The 1987-built, 23,000 dwt Khatanga was detained in October 2017 after failing a port state inspection, with its owners, Murmansk Shipping Company, promising repairs that were never carried out. The Russian shipowner then went bankrupt in 2020, while the ship’s condition has deteriorated a great deal, and has broken from its moorings on more than one occasion. 

Arkadiusz Marchewka, Poland’s state secretary for infrastructure, posted on social media: “We are removing Russian scrap from our port.”

The Polish port is expected to sell the vessel for scrap with proceeds from the sale covering unpaid dockage fees.

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ADES seals second jackup deal in Nigeria

Energy News Beat

Saudi oil and gas driller ADES has won its second contract for one of its jackup rigs offshore Nigeria.

The company has fixed the 2013-built Admarine 501 to Nkuku Ikon Petroleum Development following the deal with Brittania-U for its Admarine 504 unit last month.

The new contract, which includes a firm scope to drill two wells plus an option for two additional wells, marks the final redeployment of ADES’ suspended rigs in Saudi Arabia.

The campaign is set to start in the second quarter of 2025 and last for 180 days if all options are exercised.

Just like the first contract in Nigeria, operations of the rig will be jointly handled by ADES and in-country partner Valiant Offshore Contractors under a charter structure where ADES will provide the rig along with its senior crew and management systems to Valiant against a charter fee.

The value of the new charter is estimated at $12m.

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Finland’s Hacklin buys into fellow shortsea operator Nordic Chartering

Energy News Beat

Finnish logistics player Hacklin Group has strengthened its business with the acquisition of a considerable stake in compatriot shortsea operator Nordic Chartering.

The move of Hacklin joining as the shareholder for an undisclosed sum will build a strong foundation for future vessel investments, the companies said in a release, adding that they will continue working under their own brands.

Family-owned Hacklin was established in Port of Pori in 1908. Since then, the group companies in Helsinki, Hamina, Kotka, Hong Kong and Shanghai have specialised in project cargo, freight forwarding, and warehousing services in Finland as well as logistics solutions in bulk handling.

Privately owned Nordic Chartering has, since its establishment in 2003, operated with its own tonnage and chartered ice-classed multipurpose vessels between the Baltic Sea and Western Europe. Since 2004, the company has been offering regular timber from the Baltic Sea to Ireland and Spain. Nordic currently shows three ships on its website, of which shipping databases list the 2009-built 3,700 dwt general cargo vessel Nordic Erika (pictured) as owned.

Hacklin also has a history of shipowning. The company’s latest shipping operation was a container feeder service between Finland and Hamburg operated by Hacklin Seatrans between 1986 and 2018.

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Melina Travlos re-elected as president of Union of Greek Shipowners

Energy News Beat

EuropeOperations

Melina Travlos has been re-elected for a second term as president of the Union of Greek Shipowners (UGS).

The head of Neptune Group of companies, which includes carrier owner and operator Neptune Lines as well as a dry bulk outfit, Neptune Dry Management, will lead the nation’s shipowner association for another three years.

Travlos became the first woman to spearhead UGS after 106 years when she was elected in 2022.

Michael Chandris and Andonis Lemos were re-elected vice presidents.

Earlier in December, Gaby Bornheim was re-elected president of the German Shipowners’ Association (VDR). The managing director of Peter Döhle Schiffahrts also became the first woman at the helm of VDR in 2021. She will hold this office until 2027.

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Navigare Capital signs for containership newbuilds

Energy News Beat

ContainersEurope

Denmark’s Navigare Capital Partners has moved to add more containerships to its portfolio through a deal for up to six newbuildings in China.

The Copenhagen-based alternative investment fund manager has signed up for four firm 4,300 teu vessels at Taizhou Sanfu Shipbuilding with options for two more, according to Clarksons.

No price has been revealed for the vessels estimated for delivery between 2027 and 2028.

Navigare was established in 2017 by Maersk chairman Robert Maersk Uggla and four well-known shipping executives.

The company currently has three funds under management with operating assets in addition to containers, including bulkers, tankers, gas carriers and offshore wind support vessels.

Its most recent involvement in boxship newbuildings included a series of six 2,700 teu feeder vessels (pictured) delivered between 2023 and 2024 through a partnership with Schoeller Holdings.

According to Clarksons, 18 boxships totalling 0.2m teu have been ordered in the year to date.

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Louis Dreyfus Armateurs JV secures French wind farm CTV deal

Energy News Beat

Louis Dreyfus Armateurs (LDA) and its joint venture partner, Tidal Transit, have been selected by wind turbine maker Siemens Gamesa to provide a crew transfer vessel for the Eoliennes en mer des îles d’Yeu et de Noirmoutier (EMYN) offshore wind farm in France.

Under the contract, the JV company LD Tide will operate a 24-passenger CTV from mid-2025.

The deal marks the second award to LD Tide by Siemens Gamesa, with the first CTV Acti’vent, operating at the Fécamp offshore wind farm since October 2023.

The new vessel is one of two CTVs ordered by LD Tide at Singapore shipbuilder Strategic Marine to cover the growing demand of the rapidly evolving French offshore wind sector.

The CTV will be manned by a French crew and will be operated under the French flag, LDA said.

The EMYN offshore wind farm will have a total installed capacity of 488 MW, generating 1,900 GWh per year, equivalent to the electricity consumption of 800,000 people. The project is owned by Ocean Winds, Sumitomo Corporation, Banque des Territoires and Vendée Energie.

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