Ukraine’s decision to block gas transit and the outgoing White House administration’s latest sanctions on Russian oil are driving Europe toward a new energy crisis, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban warned.

Orban made the remarks on Saturday in Belgrade, where he met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to discuss “the security of energy supply in the two countries” and the broader region. In a video message aired on Hungarian television, Orban described rising fuel prices as a significant threat to public well-being and the economy, calling the situation “simply outrageous.”

“In recent days, unfavorable developments have occurred in Europe’s energy supply. The Ukrainians have shut down the pipeline through which gas was supplied to Hungary, and the outgoing US administration has introduced measures that have raised energy prices in Europe as well,” Orban said.

“What is happening now at Hungarian gas stations is outrageous, perhaps even infuriating,” he added. “Europe is hurtling toward an energy crisis, and Hungary must find a way to stay out of it, which is not easy.”

Orban emphasized the importance of protecting the TurkStream pipeline, which supplies gas to Hungary via Serbia and was recently attacked by Ukrainian drones targeting a compressor station in Russia.

“Our task now is to protect the only remaining gas pipeline that brings gas from Russian territory to Hungary. This pipeline arrives in Hungary through Serbia, and it is in our shared interest to defend it together,” Orban said. He added that safeguarding the pipeline is crucial for protecting Hungarian families, households, and businesses from rising energy prices.

Ukraine refused to renew a five-year gas transit contract with Gazprom at the end of 2024, cutting off Russian pipeline gas supplies to Hungary, Romania, Poland, Slovakia, Austria, Italy, and Moldova. Hungary now relies on the TurkStream pipeline—a critical energy corridor transporting natural gas from Russia to Türkiye under the Black Sea.

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EU ‘worried’ by attempted Ukrainian attack on gas system

The pipeline consists of two sections: one serves Ankara’s domestic needs, while the other transports gas to Bulgaria. This Balkan route then extends to Serbia and Hungary, connecting other EU states to Russian natural gas supplies. Currently, it is the only route supplying Russian natural gas to southern and southeastern Europe, bypassing Ukraine.

Last weekend, Kiev targeted the compressor station in Russia’s Krasnodar Region, which supplies gas to TurkStream. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the attack involved nine kamikaze drones and was largely thwarted, but one fixed-wing drone crashed close to a gas meter and caused minor damage.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Kiev of continuing its policy of “energy terrorism.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested that the US may have been involved in an attempt to sabotage the gas facility, stating, “I have a firm belief that the US needs no competitor in any fields, starting with energy.”

Millionaires are leaving the UK in droves since the Labour Party took over last year, The Times reported on Friday. The exodus comes after the government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed plans to abolish the non-domicile tax regime, which offered significant leeway to wealthy individuals.

In the UK, non-domicile residents only pay taxes on the money they earn in the country, and generally do not have to pay taxes locally on profits they made elsewhere in the world. The regime has allowed wealthy individuals to save money while incentivizing them to stay in the UK. There were around 74,000 ‘non-doms’ in the UK as of 2023, according to official data.

However, the Labour government’s plans to replace the ‘non-dom’ system with a residence-based tax regime have apparently had an impact on their desire to live in the UK. According to data provided to The Times by analytics firm New World Wealth, the UK lost a net of 10,800 millionaires to migration in 2024, a 157% increase compared to 2023.

The outlet added that the actual number of those who left the country is higher because the figure also takes into account wealthy individuals who arrived.

The data means that one millionaire left the UK every 45 minutes after Labour won the election last July, with many moving to Italy, Switzerland, and the UAE, the article says. The UK’s wealthiest echelon was especially inclined to leave, with 78 centimillionaires and 12 billionaires leaving the country last year, according to the data.

In October, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimated that the tax reforms will result in 12-25% of non-doms leaving the country. The Times noted that if a quarter of them do so, it will be a huge blow to the economy. On average, each non-dom paid £800,000 ($970,000) in VAT last year. This category plays a major role in investment and includes typical clients of high-end businesses.

The agency predicted that the changes to the non-domiciled tax regime will raise an average of £2.5 billion a year for the UK budget. However, The Times quoted Oxford Economics as saying the reforms will cost the Treasury nearly £1 billion a year due to a reduction in tax revenue.

Labour has argued that the additional taxes will help fund free school breakfasts, hospitals, and dental care. In July, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves also said Labour inherited from the Tories a budget hole of around £22 billion.

In a letter to Congress on Friday, Yellen explained that the US will hit its roughly $36 trillion debt limit between January 14 and January 23, potentially leading to a default.

To avoid this possibility, Yellen said the Treasury Department will use a number of accounting tricks, including pausing payments into civil service retirement accounts until Congress and the president agree to raise the debt ceiling again. Yellen did not say for how long her measures will forestall a default.

The US debt ceiling was raised three times during President Joe Biden’s term in the White House. Last month, Trump pressed House Republicans to include another raise in a stopgap spending bill, but the proposal was ultimately defeated by dozens of fiscal conservatives in the GOP.

Trump has repeatedly said that the debt ceiling should be abolished altogether to avoid such near-yearly showdowns, arguing that the limit – which is intended to restrict government borrowing – is pointless when it is repeatedly raised.

”It doesn’t mean anything, except psychologically,” he told NBC News last month. “The Democrats have said they want to get rid of it. If they want to get rid of it, I would lead the charge.”

Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick to replace Yellen, has said he would work with Congress to repeal the debt ceiling if instructed by Trump.

The relationship between Russia and Iran is deeply rooted in history, dating back to the 16th century when the two nations first established contact. Despite periods of tension, pragmatism has always been at the core of their interactions. Historically, Russia and Persia (modern-day Iran) faced challenges stemming from territorial disputes, leading to several Russo-Persian wars in the 19th century. However, by the 20th century, especially after World War II, the two nations found common ground in resisting external influence from major powers.

During the Soviet era, relations between the USSR and Iran were complex but steady. In 1921, Iran signed a Treaty of Friendship with the Soviet Union, which became the foundation for resolving bilateral issues. Later, during the Cold War, Iran balanced between the West and the East. However, following the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran’s foreign policy shifted toward greater independence from Western countries, breathing new life into its relationship with the Soviet Union. Although the USSR partially supported Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, the foundation for future cooperation was laid.

With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, relations between Russia and Iran entered a new phase. In the 21st century, both nations recognized the necessity of mutually beneficial cooperation in the face of increasing Western pressure. Geographical proximity, energy significance, and shared views on the need for a multipolar world order became critical factors driving their partnership. Joint projects like the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant by Russia’s nuclear energy giant Rosatom symbolized the strengthening of bilateral ties.

A pivotal moment in their relationship came with Russia’s involvement in the Syrian counterterrorism operation, which began on September 30, 2015. Collaborative efforts in Syria marked a significant step toward closer ties. The establishment of the Astana peace talks format (in collaboration with Turkey) facilitated dialogue between conflicting parties in Syria, helping to preserve legitimate governance and achieve temporary stabilization. This coordination highlighted the ability of Russia and Iran to effectively address complex regional issues together.

Today, Russia and Iran demonstrate a high level of cooperation on numerous regional and global matters. Despite differences in approaches and priorities – inevitable for sovereign states with unique national interests – they successfully coordinate their actions. The two countries actively collaborate within frameworks such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), strengthening their positions on the international stage. These platforms provide opportunities to promote a multipolar world order, which both nations advocate. Russia and Iran oppose the destructive dominance of the West and work toward transforming the international system into one that is fairer and more inclusive of all stakeholders.

Energy policy is a vital element of their cooperation. As two of the world’s largest exporters of oil and gas, Russia and Iran are natural partners in shaping the global energy agenda. While challenges remain in their relationship, such as competition in energy markets or differing approaches to certain regional issues, these do not undermine the foundation of their partnership. On the contrary, their ability to overcome disagreements reflects the maturity of their bilateral ties.

The partnership between Russia and Iran in the 21st century underscores the importance of strategic cooperation based on mutual respect and shared goals. Joint efforts to strengthen a multipolar world, counter external pressures, and create new frameworks for interaction – such as the North-South Corridor – demonstrate their serious intentions. This partnership is expected to deepen further, fostering regional stability and creating new opportunities for both nations.

How it all happened

The signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Russia and Iran marks a significant milestone in strengthening bilateral relations, laying, as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian noted, “a solid foundation for future development.” Before the visit to Moscow, the Iranian side conducted a thorough review of previously reached agreements, identifying “minor errors and delays” that were addressed proactively. These efforts underscore the seriousness of both nations’ intentions and their readiness to resolve challenges constructively. During the meeting, ministers discussed matters that remain “on the agenda,” with Pezeshkian expressing confidence that all issues, including finalizing agreements on constructing new units of a nuclear power plant, would be successfully resolved.

After three hours of discussions, the heads of state held a signing ceremony for the agreement and delivered statements to the press. Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that strengthening relations with Iran is a priority for Russia. Recalling his meetings with Pezeshkian in 2024, including at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Putin highlighted that the agreement is aimed at deepening cooperation and creating conditions for further development of bilateral interactions.

This step not only reaffirms the mutual interest in a strategic partnership but also reflects a shared ambition to establish a sustainable model of cooperation amidst growing international pressure. Such an approach minimizes external risks and bolsters the sovereignty of both nations, solidifying their positions on the global stage.

The energy sector emerged as a central focus of the agreements. Putin announced that Rosatom is working on a project to construct two new units for the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran. This initiative not only strengthens bilateral ties but also showcases Russia’s technological capabilities on a global scale. Implementing such projects requires substantial resources and a high level of trust, highlighting the strategic importance of their collaboration.

Another key aspect is the development of the North-South International Transport Corridor. The construction of the Rasht-Astara railway line is a crucial component of this project, linking the logistics networks of Russia and Belarus with Iran’s ports in the Persian Gulf. This initiative will not only enhance trade infrastructure but also strengthen the economic independence of both countries from traditional maritime routes.

The negotiations also addressed pressing international issues, including Middle Eastern crises. According to Putin, “on most foreign policy matters, Iran and Russia share aligned positions.” Particular attention was given to the situation in Syria, where both sides advocate for a resolution based on respect for sovereignty. Additionally, they expressed hope for the stabilization of Gaza, emphasizing the importance of ending hostilities.

The Iranian side highlighted the necessity of resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine through political means. “Military action is not the solution,” Pezeshkian stressed. This stance reflects Iran’s desire to play a constructive role in global politics and promote the principles of a multipolar world.

Pezeshkian noted that the new agreement opens “a new chapter” in the partnership between the two countries, addressing issues such as customs regulation, financial settlements, and investment projects. A significant area of focus is the development of a gas pipeline from Russia to Iran. Putin stated, “We should start with modest volumes of up to 2 billion cubic meters and eventually reach 55 billion cubic meters per year.” However, this project faces challenges related to price agreements, logistics, and economic conditions.

The signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement reflects Russia and Iran’s commitment to building long-term relations in a changing global order. Cooperation in energy and infrastructure underscores the strategic nature of their partnership, while a focus on independence from external influence demonstrates the determination of both nations to safeguard their sovereignty and defend their interests.

However, the success of the agreements will depend on the ability of both sides to overcome internal and external barriers. Financial constraints, logistical challenges, and pressure from third parties could slow progress. Nevertheless, the mutual commitment to strategic partnership and shared interest in strengthening their positions on the international stage provide a solid foundation for achieving ambitious goals. Thus, the signing of this agreement represents a critical milestone in the development of Russian-Iranian relations, opening new horizons for mutually beneficial cooperation.

Not a military alliance

The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Russia and Iran, published on the Kremlin’s website, comprises a preamble and 47 articles. This document covers a broad range of areas, including trade, economy, transportation, healthcare, education, space exploration, cultural exchanges, peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and many other domains of cooperation. While a third of the document addresses bilateral military-technical collaboration and international security, it is important to emphasize that the primary focus of the agreement is on expanding trade and economic cooperation, developing infrastructure projects, and strengthening national economies and technological sovereignty.

The security-related articles outline measures such as the exchange of military delegations, port calls by naval vessels, personnel training, joint exercises, and collaboration to counter common threats. Particular attention is given to international security, including arms control, nonproliferation, and information security. A separate article (Article 12) commits both parties to promoting peace and security in the Caspian region, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the Middle East, while preventing interference and destabilizing presence by third countries in these areas.

It is crucial to note that, despite attempts by some Western analysts to portray this agreement as a defense pact, it is not. Unlike similar agreements, such as the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Russia and North Korea, the document with Iran does not include obligations for immediate military assistance in the event of an armed attack. Instead, Article 3 stipulates that in the case of aggression against one party, the other party commits not to provide military or other support to the aggressor that could enable the continuation of hostilities. This phrasing reflects a more measured and pragmatic approach to security matters.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that while the agreement includes aspects of security and defense cooperation, it does not envision the creation of a military alliance. This critical statement underscores the peaceful nature of the agreement and its focus on fostering a partnership that prioritizes national economies and sovereignty.

Thus, the agreement is primarily oriented toward promoting mutually beneficial economic cooperation, creating conditions for technological development, and building sustainable ties between the two countries. Its provisions heavily support the implementation of infrastructure projects, increased trade turnover, and enhanced collaboration in strategically significant areas such as energy, transportation, and science. This format of interaction not only reflects the pragmatic nature of Russian-Iranian relations but also serves as a foundation for long-term strategic partnership.

The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement places a clear emphasis on strengthening trade and economic relations between Moscow and Tehran, a critical priority in the current context. Both nations, under sanctions pressure, are working to develop optimal mechanisms to mitigate these restrictions and safeguard their national economies. Strengthening economic ties will be an essential step toward improving the well-being of their citizens, laying the groundwork for major infrastructure projects, and advancing technological sovereignty.

New opportunities are emerging for Moscow and Tehran to unlock the potential of their bilateral cooperation. By working together, the two countries can make a significant contribution to building a multipolar world order that promotes a fairer distribution of resources and influence on the global stage. If pragmatism continues to guide their relationship, it will help minimize the negative impact of disagreements and bolster the economic potential of both nations. This approach will provide a solid foundation for a lasting partnership capable of addressing external challenges and leveraging internal resources to achieve shared goals.