BP shares jumped on Monday following weekend reports that activist investor Elliott Management has built a stake in the struggling oil major and could pressure the energy company to shift gears on its core oil and gas businesses. […]
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
01:09 – Iran Says Trump’s Maximum Pressure Will Fail to Drive Its Oil Exports to Zero
03:31 – Gov. Murphy Pulls Plug On Offshore Wind Projects Over High Costs, Supply Chain Woes
05:51 – GOP Move To Slash EV Tax Credits, Challenge Biden’s Green Subsidies
09:51 – Markets Update
11:21 – BP shares pop 7% after reports activist hedge fund Elliott has taken a stake in the struggling British oil major
13:11 – Outro
Follow Stuart On LinkedIn and Twitter
Follow Michael On LinkedIn and Twitter
ENB Top News
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack
ENB Trading Desk
Oil & Gas Investing
– Get in Contact With The Show –
Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Michael Tanner: [00:00:10] What’s going on everybody? Welcome into the Tuesday, February 11th, 2025 edition of the Daily Energy Newsbeat. Stand up. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, Iran says Trump’s maximum pressure will fail to drive its oil exports to zero. Coming back home, Governor Murphy of New Jersey pulls the plug on offshore wind projects over high cost and supply chain Talk about a flip flop there. Staying here at home, GOP moves to slash EV tax credit and challenge Biden’s green energy subsidies. We will then jump over quickly, touch what happened in the oil and gas markets and touch a little bit on BP shares up about 7 % after reports that activist investor, hedge fund manager, Elliott management, and Paul Singer has taken a stake in the struggling British oil major. We will cover all that in a bag of chips. Guys, Stu is out on assignment today. So I am rocking a solo show. Let’s go and kick this off. [00:01:08][58.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:01:09] All right. Iran says Trump’s maximum pressure will fail to drive its oil exports to zero. Pretty interesting in this war of words. Now, you know, we’re about two, three weeks into the Trump administration. Lots have happened to tariffs. Iran trying to take all this oil off the market. There’s been multiple rounds of that and Iran now seems to be, you know, openly responding and Iran’s oil minister, Moshan Pakjad has this quote, the maximum pressure policy has failed and Trump’s dream of reducing Iran’s oil exports to zero will never come true. According to the Iranian minister, as he was quoted in this article yesterday, as you know, as a quick reminder, Donald Trump last week issued a memorandum that would seek to restore maximum pressure on Iran and he directed secretary of state to modify or rescind sanction waivers, particularly those that provide Iran any degree of economic or financial relief. He also instructed the secretary of state to quote, implement a robust and continual campaign in coordination with the secretary of treasury and other relevant executive departments or agencies to drive Iran’s export of oil to zero, including Iranian crude to the people’s Republic of China for this presidential memorandum, you know, to give, you know, to go back to what the quote that Iranian oil minister said, this is a wish for them, but they will never achieve it. The more restrictions imposed on us, the more sophisticated our measures will become. This is a failed policy. It has been tested before and yielded no results. If they try again, they will fail once more. So pretty heavy words. Basically what he’s saying is go ahead and sanction us all you want, go ahead and put maximum pressure on us. All you want this will not work. You know, he’s right and wrong. We’ve definitely seen about 2 million barrels, you know, one to 2 million barrels come off the market throughout all of these different Russian sanctions. We did see Iran increase its exports under the Biden administration following the first Trump administration, where there was kind of this maximum pressure on it. And so from, from this standpoint, you know, I, I agree that, you know, I agree with the, the intent of the Trump administration is let’s drive their exports as low as possible. I do agree with the Iranian side of this, that you’re going to, they’re always going to be able to export some. The question is how much and can you cripple them financially enough? I think that remains to be seen, but we will be keeping an eye on the Iranian crude exports. Cause I think, you know, as we cover in the, in the market segment today, the markets, I think responded to this a fairly positively in light of all this tariff stuff. [00:03:31][142.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:03:31] So let’s jump to the next one. Governor Murphy pulls the plug on offshore wind projects over high costs and supply chain woes. It’s really not been a good week for the New Jersey governor Phil Murphy. You know, he, he earlier this week was talking about harboring an immigrant in his home and then basically told the feds to come and come after him. And now he’s basically thrown the towel in on offshore wind in a statement Monday, governor Murphy announced his administration would not provide financial support to new wind energy projects. Here’s a quote from the governor developing the offshore wind industry in New Jersey is a once in a generation opportunity to create tens of thousands of jobs, drive an entirely new manufacturing supply chain and secure energy independence. And now here’s the next part. However, the offshore wind industry is currently facing significant challenges and now is the time for patience and prudence. You know, I support the New Jersey board of public utilities decision on the fourth offshore wind solicitation. And I hope the Trump administration will partner with New Jersey to lower costs and manufacturing, promote energy security and create good paying jobs. He was referring as in governor Murphy was referring to the NJBPU president, Christine Sadovi statement that the board would quote, not proceed with an award in New Jersey’s fourth offshore wind solicitation. So basically they’re out of the offshore wind game. Now is the time for patience and prudence. Not, you know, what I was doing since 2018, which was trying to shove wind energy down your throat, even though it’s massively unpopular, especially with the whales. It’s, I mean, these people are coming to their senses a little bit and partially they’re being dragged. You know, again, I think if, if Kamala Harris had won the election, you would obviously would not be seeing all of this, but that’s the beautiful part about elections. They have consequences and in this, in this respect, great consequences because offshore wind is a huge, huge drag on the economy. You know, that was, you know, shared sentiment by New Jersey representative, Chris Smith, who says the Bpu’s cancelation is a sign that they have finally understood the undeniable facts. Industrializing our oceans is completely untenable, widely rejected by the public and will come at unimaginable cost to New Jersey taxpayers and rate pairs. I love that quote, industrializing our oceans. I mean, we’ve already basically decimated our oceans due to overfishing. And now the real question is, are we going to decimate them even more by throwing up all these offshore winds, at least not in New Jersey? So they go ahead and whack offshore wind for public funding. [00:05:50][138.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:05:51] Let’s jump over to the next one. GOP to slash EV tax credits challenge Biden’s green subsidies. You know, this is pretty much top of lists. If you talk about what the department of energy and a lot of congressional Republicans would like to do to give you guys an idea, there was a bunch of green subsidies that were enacted via the 2002 inflation reduction act, otherwise known as the porky bill that was signed by the former president, Joe Biden. GOP lawmakers, and I’m going to read straight from the article, will, quote, repeal a lot of the EV tax credits. This is according to representative Michael Ruley. He’s a Republican out of the state of Ohio in a quote that he told to the Washington Examiner. Here’s the full quote. Originally, when we looked at it, I think it was a really interesting way of looking at the future. And Ruley said, I think the market always dictates what’s going to be bought if the market’s not dictating EVs. We have to go back to the combustion. President Donald Trump, as we all know, has long criticized subsidies for EVs saying they will destroy the auto industry. And Republicans really argue that these tax credits do distort the market. As a quick reminder, the inflation reduction act provided about a $7 ,500 credit for purchasing new electric vehicles with some commercial EVs actually included in that tax credit. There is also a $4 ,000 credit for those who purchase qualified use electric vehicles. Here’s a quote from representative Gary Palmer, Republican out of Alabama. I’m for the federal government, not getting involved in the market. If there’s a market for EVs, it’ll work out. If not, we shouldn’t be subsidizing it. The basic libertarian and laissez -faire approach, which I tend to agree with, you know, if there’s going to be a market for EVs, let the market decide itself. It’s a pretty interesting, you know, when you look at it, you know, these, you know, clean and climate energy provisions were estimated to cost about a trillion dollars between 2022 and 2031. That’s according to a, a U Penn Wharton school of business budget estimate. The default assumption, here’s another quote, is that we are getting rid of the credits and you make a super and you better make a super compelling case to actually keep the type of credits. And I agree with that, you know, remove it. And it’s the old Elon approach. And this is, you know, he’s talked about this at his specifically when talking about the Raptor engine at SpaceX, I’d rather remove more. If you’re not taking out more parts and having to add a few back in, you’re not pulling out enough. So I think that’s what he’s doing with Doge and what they’re talking about right here. So I think in an effort to end all of these subsidies, we will, we will see where it goes, but definitely I can see on the horizon here, these will be slashed. [00:08:16][145.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:08:17] Let’s go ahead and jump over into the finance guys. But before we do that, we’ll quickly pay the bills as always. Thank you for checking us out here on the world’s greatest website, www .energynewsbeat .com. The best place for all your energy and oil and gas news. Stu and the team do a tremendous job making sure that website pays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business. You can also check us out in the description below all links to the timestamps, links to the articles. One of the best ways to support the show is go ahead and give us a subscribe over on Substack. The best way to support the show, if you are so inclined to go ahead and sign up for a paid subscription, you get a lot of custom content and more direct access to Stu and myself to answer any of your questions. Guys, we really appreciate it. That’s energynewsbeat .substack .com. Also check out reeseenergyconsulting .com guys. If you are an oil and gas operator, you are leaving money on the table by not using a marketing company to make sure that your gas contracts and your first purchasers are paying you top dollar for your product. Go check them out reeseenergyconsulting .com. And finally, if you want to be involved in the oil and gas business and specifically want to be Billy Bob Thornton from Landman, go ahead sign up investinoil .energynewsbeat .com. We will go ahead and get you all the information on how to start your oil and gas investing journey. There are great benefits to investing in oil and gas. You get nice little monthly dividends. You get some great tax benefits. And again, you get to show up parties and be Billy Bob Thornton and scream and yell and smoke cigarettes wherever you want. If you want to be Tommy from Landman, go to investinoil .energynewsbeat .com and we will show you how to do that and get you all the information. [00:09:50][92.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:09:51] Let’s quickly look guys at the markets. S &P 500 up six tenths of a percentage point. Nasdaq up 1 .2 percentage points. Two and 10 year yields. Two year yields were actually down two tenths of a percentage point. 10 year yields up 0 .18 percentage points. Bitcoin up about a percentage $97 ,400. Crude oil up 1 .8 percentage point. 72 .32 Brent oil only up about six tenths of a percentage point. 76 .05. Natural gas up about 13 cents or four percentage points to $3 .34. Really that price advance kind of goes back to what we’re talking about with the Iranian sanctions. It’s going to theoretically keep some oil off the market. The question is how much? If you listen to the Iranian oil minister, he’s going to say it’s not going to work at all. I tend to disagree slightly. It’s going to keep some. It’s not going to keep all. I think we can go back to the amount of oil that was coming out of Iran during the Trump administration to give ourselves a good gage at what exactly might be there. But yeah, it’s extremely interesting on that standpoint. I think the market is also weighing a lot of this tariff stuff. Aluminum and steel is being put under a 25 % tariff as announced today. The potential of that to enact a trade war with China makes things interesting from that standpoint. The you know, it again comes back to say, I think that $70 is that lower of the band and unless something massively comes and shifts the market, I think that’s where you’re going to see a lot of this goes. [00:11:21][90.1]
Michael Tanner: [00:11:21] Let’s jump over to our final story. BP shares up about 7 % after reports that activist investor and hedge fund manager Elliot Management has taken a stake in the struggling British oil major. These shares again were up about 6 .8 percentage points off this news while they’re to unveil fourth quarter earnings the day you listen to this and its broader strategy on the 26th. Part of the reason why Elliot I think has jumped in here is that BP has lagged relatively lower than its competitors, both in British and the US. Shares are down roughly 9 % year over year, while Shell, its closest competitor in the UK is actually up 6 percentage points. I think this comes back to part of the idea that the bigger a business gets sometimes what these activist investors see is the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. As you get so diversified as a large multinational conglomerate, there are opportunities that these hedge funds, specifically these activists see that probably make it attractive to say, we’re going to come in here, we’re either going to talk about spinning out some of your shut down some of your non -profitable businesses because as you know, if you have certain business units that aren’t doing well, that’s holding down your business units that are doing well and impacting your overall stock price. Elliot Management led by Paul Sanger has about 70 billion in assets and has been involved in all sorts of activist stuff. They’re used to doing this all the time. Their previous intervention was in Suncor, which is a Canadian energy company. Basically a note by RBC analyst says that the hedge fund could press to actually change BP’s chairperson, which would be a fascinating switch. All that’s to say is BP, I think is due for a slight change in their overall corporate structure. What that looks like, I think that remains to be seen, but we will be covering all of that guys. [00:13:11][109.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:13:11] Well, all right, I’m going to go ahead and jump out of here, guys. I appreciate you checking us out here on the World’s Greatest Podcast. Keep looking at our website, www .energynewsbeat .com. I’m Michael Tanner. I’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:13:11][0.0][777.2]
