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The global offshore wind industry is poised for a rebound in 2025, with capacity additions expected to reach 19GW and sector-wide expenditure projected to hit $80bn, a new Rystad Energy report suggests.

This recovery follows a slowdown at the end of last year when new installations dropped to approximately 8GW which is 2GW lower than the year prior.

A record wave of lease auctions is driving the resurgence, with the world’s largest offshore wind market, mainland China, accounting for 65% of new capacity. With this increase, Rystad believes that total additions will exceed the previous peak in 2021 by about 1GW, surpassing the 7.7GW added in 2024, 10.2GW in 2023, and 9.3GW in 2022.

A record 55GW of offshore wind capacity was offered in lease auctions globally in 2024, excluding mainland China. However, not all this capacity has yet been awarded, as offered capacity does not always translate into awarded capacity.

For instance, the US saw no bids for its 3GW floating wind auction in Oregon last year, while the Gulf of Maine auction awarded roughly 7GW of the approximately 13GW offered.

Despite 2024’s record offerings, Rystad claims that the lease auction openings are projected to decline in 2025, with an expected 30-40GW available. While significantly lower than 2024, this projected offered capacity is aligned with levels seen in 2021 and 2022.

The intelligence firm said in the report that the global offshore wind would have a robust year in 2025 but also sees signals that could affect its smooth upward trajectory.

Most important of which is the US federal policy which is creating significant global ripple effects hindering offshore wind development, especially where a large portion of auctioned capacity lies.

President Donald Trump’s executive order from January halting new leasing and approvals on the Outer Continental Shelf, citing environmental and safety concerns, could last throughout his term pausing new developments and creating continued uncertainty for ongoing projects,

“Project delays significantly impacted final investment decisions for new offshore wind projects in 2024, leading to a decline in project approvals. Notably, 2024 saw only a few US projects reach FID, including Empire Wind 1, Sunrise Wind, and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind. We expect to see around the same level of FIDs this year as last in Europe and Asia, and some possible upside in the US with US Wind, Southcoast Wind, and New England Wind projects obtaining offtake agreements and construction and operation approvals. The latter two just postponed signing offtake contracts until March this year,” said Petra Manuel, senior offshore wind analyst at Rystad.

Despite a slower 2024, the year saw developers advance projects like Red Rock Power and ESB’s 1.1GW Inch Cape in the UK, and Equinor’s 810MW Empire Wind 1 in the US. Other wind farms reaching FID in 2024 include Iberdrola’s 315MW Windanker in Germany, RWE and TotalEnergies’ 795MW OranjeWind in the Netherlands, and Orsted’s 924MW Sunrise Wind 1 in the US.

Rystad believes that the UK, Poland, and Germany are set to lead a surge in European FIDs in 2025, reaching 9.5GW with several projects in these countries on track for final approval. Poland is expected to see multiple major wind farms reach FID including Polenergia and Equinor’s Baltyk II and III, following the recent FID for Orsted and PGE’s Baltica 2.

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PetroVietnam Gas seals long-term LNG supply deal for Nhon Trach power plants

March 3, 2025 Mariel Alumit

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

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Stuart Turley: [00:00:09] Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Energy Newsbeat podcast. My name is Stu Turley, president of the Sandstone Group. It is nutty out there on the desk. Let’s take a look. Petro -Vietnam gas seals long term LNG supply for non -talk power plants. Pretty darn cool. You got to love LNG to power. Let’s go to David Blackmon. This came off of the Daily Caller, I believe. Trump could upend every facet of the Obama -Biden climate agenda in one fell swoop. If you just hold a breath for about five minutes, it changes again. This one’s pretty cool. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Algeria and Oman are all part of the OPEC Plus Group, and they reaffirm commitment to market stability on healthier oil market outlook. Buckle up, lower prices coming around the corner. Ukraine strikes a major Russian oil refinery for a second time in three days over the weekend. I think we’re all kind of tired of that war. Let me just take a second here. What do you think the definition of insanity is? Is it doing the same thing again and again and again expecting a different result. Well, is the EU insane? The EU unveils an ambitious plan to slash energy bills by 2 .5 trillion. Hold your breath. It is all entertainment coming around the corner on this one. Holy smokes, you cannot buy that kind of stupid. [00:01:48][98.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:49] Let’s start with Petro -Vietnam. Petro -Vietnam gas sells long -term LNG supply deal for the non -trock power plants. I like this from the standpoint that we’re seeing more and more LNG to power plants. We’re also seeing more and more LNG. bunkering facilities. We’re also seeing more and more just ships, cargo ships, ships of all kinds being made of LNG. We’re also seeing LNG trucking. I’m kind of like it because it’s going to be lower emissions for the environment. According to the PV gas statement, two units of state owned Petro Vietnam signed the LNG supply contract for Vietnam’s first two LNG power plants for 25 years. It’s pretty cool. When you take a look at that, That means that people can put in production, they can put in tankers. South Korea Samsung and CT secured a contract from PV Power to build the plants in a consortium with Vietnamese contractor Laima. I hope I pronounced that correctly. In November 21, PV Power broke ground on the Nocton three and four plants in the Southern province of Don Nai, which are about $1 .4 billion. Pretty darn cool. That came from LNGprime .com. [00:03:06][76.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:07] Let’s go to the next story here. David Blackmon, Trump could upend every faucet of the Obama -Biden climate agenda in one fell swoop. This is an amazing story from David Blackmon. The Washington Post reported Wednesday, the Environmental Protection Agency, the EPA Administrator, Lee Zeldin, has privately urged the White House to strike down a scientific ruling under my underpinning much of the federal government’s to combat climate change according to three people briefed in the matter who spoke on the condition and with anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly comment. Oh my goodness, the legality and continuing of applicability of the Administrator’s finding endangered meant and cause for contribute for findings for greenhouse gasses under section 202a of the Clean Air Act final rule. The Obama’s EPA finding was established in the 2007 5 -4 ruling by the Supreme Court in Massachusetts versus the EPA allowing the agency to regulate greenhouse gasses as pollutants in the context of the Clean Air Act. Given that the so -called greenhouse gasses or water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide are all naturally occurring elements, a ruling of classifying them as pollutants as a term intended by authors of the Clean Air Act in 1963 was absurd on its face, but that didn’t stop the five justices from imposing their political will. We are seeing a resurgence around the world and the United States is taking the lead on the return to some kind of normalcy and sanity. This was an outstanding article from David Blackmon. [00:04:54][106.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:54] Let’s roll to OPEC Plus. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed their commitment to the stability of a healthier oil market. This was out of the press release from the OPEC Plus website. Taking into account the healthy market and the positive outlook, they reaffirmed their decision in return of the 2 .2 million barrels per day a voluntary adjustment starting on 1st of April, 2025. This is not an April fool’s joke. They are gonna be pumping more oil while remaining adaptable to evolving conditions. Accordingly, this gradual increase may cause or reverse subject to market conditions. And when you take a look at the amount of oil that is being produced as in millions of barrels, there’s a lot of numbers in that chart when you take a look at it. Required production levels as per the 38th O -N -O -M -M before applying the additional voluntary announced on April 23rd, November 23rd. It’s pretty cool. So, hey, it’s gonna be lower prices. And I think that you’re gonna see, this is again, I think even with all this world turmoil right now, we are poised to see an end to the war and sanctions against Russia. I think sanctions on Iran are still going to be enforced and withheld. So that one, I don’t know that they’ll be able to do anything with. [00:06:27][92.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:27] Let’s take a look at Ukraine strikes a major Russian oil refinery for a second time in three days, an official says. Long range drones struck Russia’s biggest oil refineries for the second time in three days, a senior Kiev official said Monday. As Ukraine tries to slow the Russian army, push along the parts of the border on the third anniversary of the war. Russian authorities and acknowledged only a brief fire at the Volgograd refinery in the drone attack. The Ukrainian defenses are creaking under a manslaught. The Russian drive to occupy more land, especially in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland before the possible start of peace negotiations. So it’s going to get tough here. I hope that we can see an end to the war here. The refinery is located 480 kilometers or 300 miles behind the front line. And the plant is even further away. The Estoran plant is about 800 kilometers. The Russian military said it destroyed 70 Ukrainian drones over six Russian regions during the night. So they kind of retaliated on that. [00:07:39][71.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:39] Hey, I want to take just a real quick moment here and say thank you to Steve Reese and his staff over there at Reese Consulting for sponsoring the Energy Newsbeat podcast, working on some natural gas stories coming up around the corner for tomorrow. We’re excited about what Reese Consulting has going on. And if you’re in the natural gas space, if you’re in Europe and you want LNG, check out Reese Consulting. If you are in Asia market and you want LNG, call, if you want a power plant, call Reese Consulting. So they, if you want anything to do with natural gas, call Reese Consulting. Hats off to them. I’m looking forward to more podcasts with Steve in Oklahoma City. So let’s have some fun. [00:08:23][43.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:23] The last story for today, EU unveils ambitious plan to slash energy bills by $2 .5 trillion pounds, excuse me, or euros. When you sit back and take a look, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over. And if you take a look at what the insanity is in the European Commission, and that is bad energy policies, shoveling money after green energy. The European Commission has introduced an action plan to save 2 .5 trillion euros in energy bills over the next 15 years, addressing the rising energy poverty affecting 47 million people in the EU. This is critical. The plan focuses on bringing short -term relief to consumers. How are they gonna do that? they’re going to, despite significant growth in the renewable energy, major hurdles such as grid volatility and regulatory delays need to be addressed to ensure successful energy transition. I don’t know if anybody needs to tell them that the energy transition will not happen without lots of nuclear and it just isn’t going to happen. Three years after Russia invaded Ukraine, the European Union is still dealing with the economic fallout resulting of an energy crisis. It has continued to reverberate through the European markets, blistering high energy prices are drastically impacting consumers throughout the block. It’s estimated that approximately 47 million people in the EU countries are living in energy poverty, a 57 % increase since 2019. This is really, really sad. The action plan outline steps to bring short -term relief, but yet we’re driving down energy prices, but it’s not giving us any specifics. It’s saying we’re going to have an action plan. The action plan is not here. So you can’t buy stupid, but you can move to where stupid controls it. Anyway, this is for Haley Zimbera for oilprice .com. It was an outstanding article. [00:10:33][130.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:34] Please like, subscribe, Subscribe to our Energy Newsbeat, theenergynewsbeat .substack .com. Go to energynewsbeat .co. We have lots of people there every day watching the podcast. We have about 10 podcasts that are in the queue right now to just start rolling right on out. We’ve got a lot more coming around the corner. So thank you and have an absolutely fantastic day. Hug your pets, hug your family, and do something awesome. [00:10:34][0.0[620.1]

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According to a statement by DOE, the order modifies a prior order issued to Jax LNG under the previous administration that asserted new oversight for the use of LNG to power marine vessels, also known as LNG bunkering.

Jax LNG is a small-scale coastal LNG facility located at Dames Point near Jacksonville, Florida that provides LNG as fuel to ships, including cruise ships, car carriers, petroleum tankers, and containerships.

The facility has a capacity of 360,000 gallon per day LNG with 4 million gallons of storage.

It is a joint venture between Seaside LNG and Pivotal LNG, a subsidiary of BHE GT&S.

By issuing an order on rehearing, DOE is modifying an order originally issued in December 2024.

The modified order clarifies that DOE is withdrawing the exercise of its jurisdiction under the Natural Gas Act (NGA) for ship-to-ship transfers of LNG for marine fuel use at a US. port, in US waters, or in international waters.

The only bunkering-related activity that will continue to be considered an export is when there are ship-to-ship transfers of US LNG when the receiving ship is located in the territorial sea of a foreign country, including foreign ports, according to DOE.

DOE has left unchanged its authorization to Jax to export LNG via ISO container.

DOE said use of LNG for marine fuel has increased in recent years and is expected to continue to increase amid more stringent emissions regulations for shipping.

According to the IEA’s January 2025 quarterly gas report, based on the current order book for vessels, the number of LNG-fueled ships is expected to almost double and reach over 1,200 vessels by 2028.

DNV’s data recently showed that orders for LNG-powered vessels jumped 103 percent to 264 ships last year.

“Today’s action is a significant step in reducing regulatory burdens and helping this important segment of the LNG market continue to grow,” said Tala Goudarzi, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management.

 

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According to a PV Gas statement, the two units of state-owned PetroVietnam signed the LNG supply contract for Vietnam’s first two LNG power plants for 25 years.

This move follows a contract signed by PV Gas and PV Power for LNG supply for the commissioning of the two power plants in November last year.

PV Gas and PV Power have successfully negotiated and signed a contract to supply LNG for the entire commercial operation of these power plants from 2025 onwards, PV Gas said.

With this, PV Gas became the first and only long-term LNG supplier for power plants in Vietnam, it said.

PV Gas did not provide further details regarding the contract.

Launched in 2023, the PV Gas-operated Thia Vail LNG terminal, Vietnam’s first LNG import facility, currently has a capacity of 1 mtpa, and it consists of one 180,000-cbm LNG tank, a jetty, and a regas area.

PV Gas is also working to triple the capacity of the facility to 3 mtpa.

On the other hand, PV Power’s Nhon Trach 3 LNG power plant was recently connected to the national grid.

According to PV Power, the LNG power plant is expected to start commercial operation in July this year, after meeting technical requirements.

In November 2021, PV Power broke ground on the Nhon Trach 3 and 4 plants in the southern province of Dong Nai, which are worth about $1.4 billion.

Vietnam’s first LNG power plants will have a total capacity of 1.5 GW.

South Korea’s Samsung C&T secured a contract from PV Power to build the plants in a consortium with Vietnamese contractor Lilama.

PV Power previously said the launch of these LNG plants had been delayed due to several issues, including those related to the project’s land lease and the power purchase agreement with Vietnam’s power utility EVN, which was signed in October last year.

According to the firm, the total construction progress of Nhon Trach 3 and 4 projects had reached nearly 96 percent by the end of January 2025.

 

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In August 2024, B.Grimm LNG, a unit of B.Grimm Power, imported 65,000 tons of LNG via PTT’s Map Ta Phut LNG terminal 1 (LMPT1) in Rayong province.

The firm purchased its first LNG cargo from Japan’s Sumitomo.

With this shipment, B.Grimm Power became the first private company in Thailand to import LNG for distribution to small power producers (SPP), according to the firm.

“B.Grimm LNG Limited imported two LNG cargoes in October and December, and a total of three cargoes of 198,000 tonnes throughout 2024 to fuel our SPPs through the pool gas system,” B.Grimm Power said in its 2024 results report.

The company said that the Thai economy is expected to grow near the previous assessment, at 2.7 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025.

Moreover, key growth drivers include tourism, boosted private consumption supported by government stimulus, and a rise in exports driven by increased demand for electronics, B.Grimm Power said.

However, recovery remains uneven across sectors, with some merchandise exports, manufacturing, and SMEs facing pressures from structural challenges, the firm said.

“The SPP gas cost guideline is projected to range between THB 320-350/MMBtu, which is about the same range as it was in 2024, where the actual SPP gas cost ended up being THB 324/MMBtu,” it said.

“Up to five LNG shipments are planned for import into the pool gas system in 2025,” B.Grimm Power said.

In March 2022, B.Grimm LNG signed a terminal use deal with a unit of state-owned oil and gas firm PTT to use the latter’s Map Ta Phut LNG import terminal in Rayong province.

Prior to that, B.Grimm LNG has been authorized to import up to 1.20 million tons of LNG per year.

Thailand currently imports LNG via two import terminals operated by PTT.

These terminals include the first Map Ta Put LNG terminal (LMPT 1) with a capacity of 11.5 mtpa and the second Map Ta Phut LMPT2 LNG terminal, also known as the Nong Fab LNG terminal, with a capacity of 7.5 mtpa.

 

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The power firm and LNG trader said on Monday that the power station’s unit 3 has started commercial operation on March 1.

As a result, all of the units from 1 to 3 in Goi thermal power station have commenced commercial operations.

Jera said the new unit with a generating capacity of 780 MW uses an LNG-fired gas turbine combined cycle (GTCC) system.

The joint venture of Tokyo Electric and Chubu Electric believes the unit will contribute to a stable electricity supply and mitigate environmental impact by reducing CO2 emissions.

Jera, Eneos Power, and Kyushu Electric Power will “continue working through Goi United Generation LLC to ensure the safe operation of the Goi thermal power station, thereby contributing to the stable supply of electricity.”

The company previously said that it expects to launch the third unit in March 2025.

Jera launched the first new LNG unit in August 2024 and the second unit in November 2024.

Each of the units is able to produce 780 MW for a total of 2,340 MW.

The Goi thermal power station replacement project involved the replacement of six ageing gas-fired steam power units at the facility.

In 2023, Jera agreed to transfer a stake in the LNG power plant to compatriot Kyushu Electric Power.

Following completion of the transfer, the ownership ratio in the power plant between Jera, Eneos, and Kyushu Electric is 9:5:1.

Jera also launched commercial operations in 2023 at the third new LNG-fueled unit at its Anegasaki thermal power station in Chiba.

With this, Jera completed the project which consisted of building three new units to replace aging equipment.

Jera decommissioned in December 2021 four old LNG-fueled units at its Anegasaki power plant.

 

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Prices rose from the collapsed levels in the prior year and are back where they’d been in 1996, down by 70% from the peak in 2005.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

When it comes to US natural gas production, exports, and imports, a key element is that the price of natural gas in the US has collapsed since about 2008, a few years after US production from fracking took off majestically and reversed the years-long trend of declining production.

Currently, natural gas futures trade for about $3.76 per million Btu, after a 12-month surge, roughly the same as in some periods in 1996 and 1997. The year-ago price of around $1.90 was right back where it had been in 1995, despite 30 years of inflation in other products and services. The price collapsed as overproduction set in by 2009, with no liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals in the lower 48 states as an outlet.

A substantial part of natural gas is produced as a byproduct of fracked oil wells. Some years ago, in shale fields that lacked gas-takeaway capacity, the associated gases coming from the oil wells, including methane, were flared, a huge waste of a valuable natural resource, and also a big source of air pollution.

In North Dakota’s portion of the Bakken Formation, between 30% and 35% of the associated gases were flared in 2012 through 2014. Flaring is now down to 5%. Across the US, flaring is down to about 0.5% of total gas produced, from close to 2% in 2018, according to EIA estimates.

This concept of associated natural gas – natural gas as byproduct of oil production from fracked wells – led to overproduction of natural gas amid limited demand and was one of the factors why the price collapsed.

US natural gas production: Drill Baby Drill since the early 2000s.

Marketed production of natural gas rose by 0.6% in 2024, to a record 41.4 trillion cubic feet, according to EIA data on Friday.

Since 2006, production has surged by 113%. Since 2017, production has surged by 41%. The fracking boom in the US – including the surge in crude oil production – has rejiggered the energy landscape globally.

Some Drill-Baby-Drill milestones:

• In 2011, the US became the largest natural gas producer in the world.
• In 2016, natural gas surpassed coal as the dominant fuel for power generation in the US.
• In 2016, the first LNG export terminal in the lower 48 states came on line, and large-scale LNG exports began.
• In 2017, the US became a net exporter of natural gas, exporting more than importing.
• In 2023, the US became the largest exporter of LNG.
• In 2024, power generation from natural gas rose by 3.3% to a record of 1,864,874 GWh, with a share of 42.7% of total power generated. Coal’s share dropped to a record low of 14.9%, from 51% in 2001 (I discussed US power generation by source in 2024 here).

US natural gas exports.

The US exports natural gas via pipelines to Mexico and Canada. Since 2016, the US has been exporting natural gas as LNG to the rest of the world. As more export terminals were built, LNG exports soared, creating more demand for US production.

Total exports of natural gas via pipeline and as LNG rose by 1.3% in 2024 to a new record of 7.71 trillion cubic feet, or about 18% of US marketed production.

LNG exports rose by 0.6% to a record 4.37 trillion cubic feet.

Pipeline exports to Mexico and Canada rose by 2.3% to 3.34 trillion cubic feet:

• To Mexico: +4.6% to a record 2.35 trillion cubic feet
• To Canada: -2.8% to 1.0 trillion cubic feet.

Imports increased by 7.4% to 3.14 trillion cubic feet, of which 3.13 trillion cubic feet via pipeline from Canada, and 0.016 trillion cubic feet via LNG in the Boston area, which is still inadequately connected via pipeline to the producing areas in the US.

This chart shows imports (blue) as a negative figure and total exports as a positive figure (red). The import peak was in 2007.

Canada imports from the US and the US imports from Canada because the geographical layout of where pipelines, producing areas, and population centers are. On a net basis (exports minus imports), the US imported from Canada 2.13 trillion cubic feet in 2024.

LNG exports by region. 

LNG exports to Europe – the largest buyer of US LNG for the third year in a row – dropped by 22% from the record in 2023. They still accounted for nearly half of US LNG exports (dotted red line in the chart below). Germany started setting up LNG import terminals in 2022, and by 2024, 15% of US LNG going to Europe was unloaded in Germany, up from 0% in 2021. The other big importing countries were those with LNG import terminals that feed into the European system of pipelines, on top of which were the Netherlands, France, the UK, Spain, and Italy.

LNG exports to Asia rose by 33%, but were below the record in 2021. All major LNG importers increased their imports. The biggest importers were Japan, South Korea, China, India, and Taiwan (green).

Exports to Latin America and the Middle East & Africa rose but remained relatively low.

And in case you missed it last week: Demand for Electricity Takes Off, Driven by  Data Centers (AI, Cloud, Crypto) and EVs. US Power Generation by Source in 2024: Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear, Wind, Hydro, Solar, Geothermal, Biomass, Petroleum.

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:

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