Energy News Beat

The two energy firms signed in Cairo on Monday the host government agreement with Egypt and Cyrpus for the exploitation of Cyprus’ Cronos Block 6 resources.

Eni said in a statement this agreement is a “concrete milestone” to establish a gas hub in the Eastern Mediterranean, capitalizing on Egypt’s existing hydrocarbon infrastructure and positioning Cyprus as a gas producer and exporter.

It outlines a comprehensive framework enabling a “rapid” development of the Cronos gas discovery offshore Cyprus.

According to Eni, the gas supplies will be transported and processed in existing Zohr facilities to be then liquefied in the Damietta LNG plant for export to European markets.

Discovered in 2022 and subsequently appraised in 2024, Cronos gas in place is estimated at more than 3 trillion cubic feet (TCF), Eni said.

Additionally, Block 6 encompasses further potential resources under exploration and appraisal, including the Zeus discovery made in 2022

Block 6 is operated by Eni holding a 50 percent interest, while TotalEnergies holds a 50 percent interest as well.

Eni also operates Block 8 and has participating interests in Blocks 7 and 11.

In Egypt, Eni is currently the country’s leading producer with an equity production of approximately 280,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024.

Eni operates in Egypt through its wholly owned subsidiary IEOC and has a 50 percent share in the Damietta LNG plant.

Back in 2023, the liquefaction plant shipped its 500th LNG cargo since the start of operations in 2005.

The 5 mtpa facility located on the Mediterranean coast, about 60 km northwest of Port Said, started exporting LNG again in February 2021 following a deal between Egypt’s EGPC and EGAS, Eni, and Naturgy.

It stopped operations in 2012 due to declining domestic production, but new finds such as Eni’s giant Zohr field in the East Mediterranean allowed the partners to restart the plant and ship the first cargo in 2021.

Howevher, Egypt again shifted from being an LNG exporter to an importer early last year due to declining domestic gas production and rising demand for cooling amid multiple heatwaves.

To support its growing need for natural gas, Egypt currently hosts the 170,000-cbm Hoegh Galleon FSRU at the Sumed port in Ain Sokhna, with a second unit, the 160,000-cbm Energos Eskimo, set to arrive in June.

In addition, a recent report said that Egypt has signed a deal to deploy one of Turkiye’s operational FSRUs at Egypt’s Ain Sokhna port to cover LNG demand in June-November.

 

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Top officials from both countries are to discuss ways to end the Ukraine conflict in Riyadh

 

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The Wolfowitz Plan to Block Russian Natural Gas and Global Geopolitical Realignment has failed

The chief problem of Keitth Kellogg is that he mistook his mission as ending the Ukraine War to save the EU and NATO and mitigate the continual harassment from the mainstream media.

The reality is that the Wolfowitz plan to isolate and break up Russia and Iran as a means of capturing the Persian Gulf and Capsian Sea Petroleum fields and occupying the logistical supply routes has failed.

The Wolfowitz plan shifted the Brzezinski era regime-change destabilization program to a regime-change nation-building program as the means of placing US puppets in charge of the newly formed countries of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan to control the pipeline supply routes to Europe and this project has failed miserably. It merely turned into a continuation of the regime-change destabilization program of Brzezinski instead.

Specifically, Kellogg and his advisors, never realized the difference between the Globalist rhetoric that  “Russia is going to use natural gas as a weapon” and that “Russia is pursuing territorial expansion to revive the Soviet Empire” and the actual geostrategic reasons of super powers forming trading blocs to form a superpower-major power-vassal state hierarchy that enables superpowers to become superpowers.

Cover-for-Action Rhetoric in Contradistinction to Sea Power versus Land Power Strategies

In this context, Kellogg didn’t realize that the neoconservatives and neoliberal Gloablists in the financial and military-industrial complex sectors (a) moved the EU and NATO Eastward to extend the Super Power-Major Power-Vassal State hierarchy by including the former Yugoslavian countries and Warsaw Pact countries into new vassal states; (b) to separate Russia from the European Peninsula market place and form a superpower, major power vassal state hierarchy of their own; or (c) did not realize that the Global War on Terror rhetoric was merely the pretext for the West to move into the Middle East to secure both the Petroleum Fields and the pipeline routes to (d) thwart Russian emergence and cooperation against the Sea Powers by building overland logistical supply routes in Eurasia with China.

It is (a-d) that is achieved by (e) the underlying Sea Power Mackinder-Spykman-style Rimland strategy to encircle Russia and China as a whole. In this strategy the Afghanistan nation-building project was supposed to be a gateway into Central Asia to reinstitute the Great Game strategy of the British Empire discussed at length by Peter Hopkirk in his series of books published in the 1990s.

The “Seven Countries in Five Years” objective of the neocons discussed by General Wesley Clark during his 2007 campaign was the strategy to control the entire Middle East into Central Asia and separate Russia and China to thwart and sabotage their overland pipelines, railway, highway and port system. Brzezinski wrote about this in his 1997 book titled The Grand Chessboard.

Economic Development Strategies in Contradistinction to Geopolitical Sabotage Strategies

The Wolfowitz Plan to Block Russian Natural Gas and Global Geopolitical Realignment has failed

The chief problem of Keitth Kellogg is that he mistook his mission as ending the Ukraine War to save the EU and NATO and mitigate the continual harassment from the mainstream media.

The reality is that the Wolfowitz plan to isolate and break up Russia and Iran as a means of capturing the Persian Gulf and Capsian Sea Petroleum fields and occupying the logistical supply routes has failed.

The Wolfowitz plan shifted the Brzezinski era regime-change destabilization program to a regime-change nation-building program as the means of placing US puppets in charge of the newly formed countries of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan to control the pipeline supply routes to Europe and this project has failed miserably. It merely turned into a continuation of the regime-change destabilization program of Brzezinski instead.

Specifically, Kellogg and his advisors, never realized the difference between the Globalist rhetoric that  “Russia is going to use natural gas as a weapon” and that “Russia is pursuing territorial expansion to revive the Soviet Empire” and the actual geostrategic reasons of super powers forming trading blocs to form a superpower-major power-vassal state hierarchy that enables superpowers to become superpowers.

Cover-for-Action Rhetoric in Contradistinction to Sea Power versus Land Power Strategies

In this context, Kellogg didn’t realize that the neoconservatives and neoliberal Gloablists in the financial and military-industrial complex sectors (a) moved the EU and NATO Eastward to extend the Super Power-Major Power-Vassal State hierarchy by including the former Yugoslavian countries and Warsaw Pact countries into new vassal states; (b) to separate Russia from the European Peninsula market place and form a superpower, major power vassal state hierarchy of their own; or (c) did not realize that the Global War on Terror rhetoric was merely the pretext for the West to move into the Middle East to secure both the Petroleum Fields and the pipeline routes to (d) thwart Russian emergence and cooperation against the Sea Powers by building overland logistical supply routes in Eurasia with China.

It is (a-d) that is achieved by (e) the underlying Sea Power Mackinder-Spykman-style Rimland strategy to encircle Russia and China as a whole. In this strategy the Afghanistan nation-building project was supposed to be a gateway into Central Asia to reinstitute the Great Game strategy of the British Empire discussed at length by Peter Hopkirk in his series of books published in the 1990s.

The “Seven Countries in Five Years” objective of the neocons discussed by General Wesley Clark during his 2007 campaign was the strategy to control the entire Middle East into Central Asia and separate Russia and China to thwart and sabotage their overland pipelines, railway, highway and port system. Brzezinski wrote about this in his 1997 book titled The Grand Chessboard.

Economic Development Strategies in Contradistinction to Geopolitical Sabotage Strategies

knows nothing about it so the Western electorate, and even the Western military leaders, stays in the dark as well.

Instead of receiving any real news based on any real understanding of the Sea Power versus Land Power strategies, the journalists and the American public are fed a fake news diet crafted by the Wall Street and City of London financial class in one sense, which is amplified into mass conformity perfection by the chorus of USAID and the NED funded Operation Mockingbird alternative media Youtube channels who unwittingly broadcast even more fake news. The Western mainstream and Mockingbird alternative media outlets are a massive misinformation perpetual feedback loop.

The Fake News Cover for Action

The fake news such as “Russia invaded for no reason,” “Russia is going to invade Central Europe,” and Ukraine is winning the War” are trumpeted in the mainstream and Mockingbird alternative media outlets that obscure the underlying foreign policy of the US. This has occurred to such an extent that LTG Kellogg was massively misinformed as well.

The actual concern of the Brzezinski-Wolfowitz strategy was always to contain Russia and China. Professor John Lewis Gaddis has written several books on this topic and the Russians and Chinese have read them too. This is why the Russians, Chinese, and Iran have coordinated their overland logistical supply route counterstrategies to bolster each other economic development and political stability.

Putin and the “Do Nothing” Approach to Western Delusion

The Russian, Chinese, and Iranian counter strategy now has the effect of creating the very Eurasian integration economic and military blocs that the Brzezinski-Wolfowitz strategy was designed to stop. Now, all Putin has to do to realize the Ratzel, Haushofer, and Dugin Eurasian land power dream is simply “do nothing” and let the energy prices soar across Europe.

If the populist parties win in the Danube River Valley countries and rebuild Nordstream to buy Russian natural gas in Rubles to save their economies and societies, then they will have to abandon the petrodollar, the EU, and NATO that are enforcing the sanctions.

On the other hand, if the WEF globalist-backed politicians increase their lawfare and mass censorship of their rivals to win the upcoming 2025 elections, and stick to the Green New Deal net zero delusion, then all Putin has to do is to sit back and watch the deindustrialization policies to run their course and lead the West into a series of cascading bankruptcies that cannot fund their generous welfare states.

Putin and Xi will be fine with either outcome and all Putin has to do is nothing. The Kellogg Plan to deal with Putin from a position of strength was dead on arrival since it was first published back in April of 2024.

Let’s hope the elections in Central Europe are too big to rig and President Trump and Elon Musk go all in and support the populist movements across the UK and Europe. The 2026 midterms will arrive faster than anyone thinks and overcoming the mainstream media mendacity will be the biggest obstacle to overcome.

Part 5: Keith Kellogg Understood Neither the Role of Energy in Geopolitics Nor the Role of Trading Blocs in Geopolitics.

Part 4: Keith Kellogg Had a Layman’s Understanding of the Wolfowitz Proxy War with Russia in Ukraine – All Putin has to do is nothing

Part 3: Understanding the Catastrophic Downside Risk of the Kellogg Plan and Exploring Alternatives

Part 2: Why Keith Kellogg’s Plan is DOA: Shifting the Global Political Center of Gravity Part 2

Part 1: Why Keith Kellogg’s Plan is DOA: Avoiding the Catastrophic Downside Risk of Russo-Ukraine Negotiations

George McMillan Articles and Interviews: https://energynewsbeat.co/george-mcmillian/

 

The post Keith Kellogg Mistook the Mission to End the War in Ukraine Instead of Ending the Globalists appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

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The Role of Trading Blocs in Geopolitics

The specific purpose of moving the EU and NATO Eastward during the late 1990s, despite the promise by the Reagan administration to Mikhail Gorbachev in 1989, was to prevent affordable Russian natural gas via pipeline from going to the European market for two essential reasons. I wrote about this topic in the seven “Russian Natural Gas and Geopolitical Realignment” articles published on Energy News Beat.

First, the West wanted to prevent Russia from using the profits of the Gazprom natural gas sales to fund an export-led growth import substitution industrialization investment program that would modernize their economy and military which would make them a regional power once again.

Secondly, and most importantly, an overland logistical supply route of natural gas, oil, and railroad infrastructure would allow Russia to re-emerge as a regional power and build alliances with Central Europe, India, China, South Korea, and Japan to form a super Eurasian Economic Union trading bloc that would rival the current North American, Anglosphere Five Eyes and EU/NATO alliance system.

Under the Wolfowitz plan to prevent any near-peer superpower from emerging, a reemergence of Russo-Sino superpower alignment would likely create the scenario where they make the German-World Industrial Power center a major partner in Western Europe as well as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in the Pacific Island chain would become partners in a greater Eurasian Economic Union trading bloc as well.

Understanding the Catastrophic Downside Risk of the Kellogg Plan and Exploring Alternatives

Or what should President Trump do to end the war?

Podcast interview with George McMillan

Why is ending the war in Ukraine taking so long? There are several reasons, and one key issue… pic.twitter.com/xCs6Mt936N

— STUART TURLEY – Energy Podcast Host (@STUARTTURLEY16) February 12, 2025

The Sea Power Versus Land Power Grand Strategies

In terms of the history of Sea Power Versus Land Power Grand Strategies, such a scenario would become a Friedrich Ratzel, Karl Huashofer, and Aleksandr Dugin overland logistical supply route dream and a Mahan, Mackinder, Sykman, Brzezinski, Wolfowitz nightmare that the RAND 2019 strategic plans were designed to prevent.

The two 2019 RAND articles are titled “Overextending and Unbalancing Russia Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options” as the short 12-page overview paper that complimented a 354-page detailed strategic plan titled “Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground.”

These articles are online and can be read by anyone willing to spend the time to investigate the actual US strategic plans as opposed to the cover-for-action rhetoric that “Russia invaded for no reason” and the “Russia is going to invade Europe” trope that is broadcast non-stop by the legacy media and Operation Mockingbird USAID and NED funded alternative media channels on YouTube over the last decade.

Kellogg and the Media Need to Read the Wolfowitz and RAND Articles

One would think that a retired three-star general such as Keith Kellogg would understand the difference between the cover-for-action rhetoric in contradistinction to the actual underlying Grand Strategies, but that was obviously not the case.

So why discuss this further than already discussed in the previous articles in this series? Because the mainstream media and Mockingbird alternative media propaganda are so pervasive that the voting electorate is misled and misinformed on purpose.

Besides the general public, way too many Western leaders are misled and misinformed intentionally by the Wolfowitz and RAND Grand Strategists as well and the Western media “journalists” have become stenographers repeating what they are told with no skepticism whatsoever.

Way too many military officers, politicians, and journalists have fallen into the foreign policy misinformation trap that a democratic system cannot exist under such a propaganda campaign.

For President Trump and DOGE to succeed President Trump needs to remain in office all four years and keep control of the House and the Senate for all four years the propaganda machines of the media need to be neutralized by openly discussing the Wolfowitz and RAND foreign policy strategic plans to the general public. It is now the US that needs a glasnost and perestroika.

A Glasnost and Perestroika of the Wolfowitz Plan and the Eurasian Natural Gas Wars

To achieve this, the actual underlying strategic plans that started the war need to be widely understood and disseminated to as much of the general public as possible to keep President Trump and DOGE in office. It is imperative that Trump and the DOGE tackle the twin current account and massive yearly budget deficits that threaten the financial and economic stability of the United States and the entire Western World.

To achieve this, both the domestic and international problems need to be solved, which means displacing the current neoconservative, neoliberal, and Green New Deal Leftists that form the current WEF Globalist parties throughout the collective West and control the media.

It is these three groups that shifted the regime-change destabilization strategies of Zbigniew Brzezinski and Stanfield Turner Operation Cyclone from the late 1970s forward, to the regime-change nation-building strategy of the Global War on Terror, followed by the Big Tech-inspired color revolutions of the Arab Spring, that led to the return of the regime-change destabilization strategies across Eurasia and North Africa since the regime-change nation-building strategies failed.

It is these groups that back what Mike Benz refers to as the “dial-a-riots” where the financial class flies in and busses in professional protesters to cause street violence to overwhelm local police forces and follows Marcuse’s “repressive tolerance,” Alinky’s identity politics and Jean Sharp’s “non-violent” direct action protest protocols perfected by the Central Intelligence Agency during the 1960s protests in Europe and transferred to the National Endowment for Democracy and USAID after the Church Commission hearings in the late 1970s.

One can see that this form of political action was perfected in the 2020 election cycle George Floyd Antifa-BLM riots used to disrupt Donald Trump’s reelection effort.  A “glasnost and perestroika” effort is needed to explain how these professional protest and color revolution techniques evolved from the Frankfurt School devotees in the 1950s and have been perfected by the union of the intelligence and Big Tech communities to bully local communities that do not submit to the single-party socialist state progressive programs.

The Peaceful Protestors and the Need for a Glasnost and Perestroika in the West

The reason why this glasnost and perestroika are needed is that these professional protest methods are used to advance the “Seven P Plan of the Left” strategies to achieve a single-party bureaucratic state in the United States that also controls the EU and NATO trading bloc and military alliance institutions.

Clearly, the Globalists and Leftists are using the Cloward and Piven Plan to bring about the single-party bureaucratic state by profligate government spending on wasteful government programs that are actually money laundering schemes to fund globalist politicians.

The US federal budget deficit was approximately $5.6 trillion in 2000 after President Clinton left office and approximately doubled to $10 trillion under President G. W. Bush when he left office in 2008. The national debt nearly doubled again under President Obama rising to almost $20 trillion in 2016 after President Obama left office. Since the Trump and Biden four-year terms the national debt has risen to $36 trillion as Trump took office in 2025 for his second term. The question is can Trump and Musk stop the increase and grow the economy to balance the budget over the next four years?

The Cloward and Piven Plan to accelerate spending and significantly expand the bureaucracy to achieve the single-party social state has been accelerating over the past four decades and must be reversed by the extensive cost-cutting and department closures that Elon Musk and DOGE are performing within the first month of Trump taking office.

Taken together, the twin current account and budget deficit problems are being countered by the reciprocal tariff policy of Trump and Elon Musk’s DOGE. But only so much can be achieved in four years,  and President Trump needs all four years to make a small dent in the twin problems. Trump and Musk not only need to maintain control of both houses through the 2026 midterms but need to maintain control of all three houses (the White House and both Houses of Congress) throughout the next four-year terms as well.

 

Part 4: Keith Kellogg Had a Layman’s Understanding of the Wolfowitz Proxy War with Russia in Ukraine – All Putin has to do is nothing

Part 3: Understanding the Catastrophic Downside Risk of the Kellogg Plan and Exploring Alternatives

Part 2: Why Keith Kellogg’s Plan is DOA: Shifting the Global Political Center of Gravity Part 2

Part 1: Why Keith Kellogg’s Plan is DOA: Avoiding the Catastrophic Downside Risk of Russo-Ukraine Negotiations

George McMillan Articles and Interviews: https://energynewsbeat.co/george-mcmillian/

The post Keith Kellogg Understood Neither the Role of Energy in Geopolitics Nor the Role of Trading Blocs in Geopolitics. appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

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Biofuels, despite claims of sustainability, cause food inflation, environmental harm, and energy inefficiency, raising concerns over their true impact.

​Biofuels, despite claims of sustainability, cause food inflation, environmental harm, and energy inefficiency, raising concerns over their true impact. 

The post Biofuels: The Green Energy Hoax Driving Environmental Damage And Rising Food Costs appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

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The Belarusian president has met with a senior American diplomat for the first time in five years, the news outlet reports

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• Retirement of coal-fired power plants in the West has done nothing to reverse global coal demand.
• Global coal consumption is set to remain at these high levels—or even hit new all-time highs—for a few more years.
• Global operating coal power capacity has increased by 13% since 2015, data from Global Energy Monitor shows.

Developed economies have been reducing their use of coal in recent years, but the world isn’t ready to kick its coal addiction, not yet. Developing markets in Asia are boosting their coal-fired power generation to meet surging electricity demand.

Despite continued retirements of coal-fired power in the U.S., lower coal demand in Europe, and the end of the 142-year coal electricity in the UK, global coal demand hit another record high last year. And consumption is set to remain at these high levels—or even hit new all-time highs—for a few more years.

Emerging Asian economies, led by China and India, have been sustaining global coal demand growth this decade. They plan additional coal-fired capacity to support their respective renewables booms with 24/7 baseload power and avoid power crunches or blackouts like the ones they suffered in the early 2020s.

Global Coal Demand At Record High

Global operating coal power capacity has increased by 13% since 2015, data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM) shows. Since 2015, when the countries reached a deal on the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the world has added 259 GW of operating coal power capacity. As of the end of 2024, total operating coal power capacity hit a record high of 2,175 gigawatts (GW), while another 611 GW of capacity was under development, according to GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker.

Global coal demand surged to another record high in 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in December, expecting the world’s coal consumption to level off through 2027.

The previous record was from a year earlier. In 2023, demand hit the then-record, and the IEA then predicted flat consumption in 2024. They were wrong—demand increased last year, their own analysis showed.

Despite forecasts of plateauing, global coal consumption could continue to rise this year and the next few years, too, depending on how China’s economy and energy security policies evolve in the coming months.

A plateau in global coal demand will largely depend on China, the IEA noted in December.

“Weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori.

Electricity demand globally is set to jump in the coming years with AI advancements and data center investments.

Growth in power demand in 2024 and 2025 is forecast to be among the highest levels in the past two decades, the IEA said in the middle of 2024.

The surge in electricity consumption could slow coal retirements in developed economies and further raise coal demand in emerging markets in Asia, especially if the growth in renewable energy capacity is not enough to meet the rise in power demand.

Two Worlds of Coal Consumption

While solar power will continue to drive the growth of U.S. power generation over the next two years, coal power output will remain unchanged at around 640 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in 2025 and 2026, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last month. America’s coal electricity generation was 647 billion kWh in 2024.

U.S. coal retirements are set to accelerate this year, removing 6%, or 11 GW, of coal-generating capacity from the U.S. electricity sector. Another 2%, or 4 GW, of coal capacity would be removed in 2026, the EIA forecasts. Last year, coal retirements represented about 3 GW of electric power capacity removed from the power system, which was the lowest annual amount of coal capacity retired since 2011.

Across the Atlantic, last year saw a monumental moment in Britain’s electricity system with the switching-off of the last remaining coal power plant in the country. The plant at Ratcliffe-on-Soar was shut at the end of September, ending 142 years of coal-fired electricity generation in the UK and making Britain the first G7 country to phase out coal.

In the European Union, solar power overtook coal generation in 2024, with solar accounting for 11% of EU electricity and coal falling below 10% for the first time ever, data from clean energy think tank Ember showed.

But in China and India, the world’s biggest and second-biggest coal users, respectively, coal is still king despite the surge in renewable power installations.

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• U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia’s dark fleet and Iran are removing tankers from circulation, driving up VLCC demand.
• Jefferies: sanctions sideline about 15% of the global fleet.
• ADNOC L&S is aggressively expanding, recently acquiring 32 tankers and planning further VLCC acquisitions.

While the world watches the unhinged actions of the new Trump administration—playing Geopolitics 101 for Dummies—leaving Europe’s security in shambles and pushing risks and fear back into the market, oil and gas analysts are more concerned about oil prices. Current sentiment suggests lower oil prices as part of an expected peace dividend from a potential U.S.-Russia Ukraine deal. However, this expectation is not based on fundamentals or geopolitical-military assessments from experts.

Meanwhile, those inside the global crude oil markets anticipate a completely different scenario. Norway’s Domestic Wealth Fund, one of the country’s sovereign wealth funds, and Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC L&S have already seen positive developments in the VLCC market, with significant investments underway or planned for the near future.

U.S.-based investment bank Jefferies foresees a robust bull market developing in the VLCC sector. In a new report, Jefferies noted that the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia is increasing weekly, removing a substantial number of VLCCs from the market. At the same time, Jefferies pointed out that overall demand for VLCCs remains strong, as oil markets continue an upward demand cycle. Sanctioned volumes—particularly from Russia’s dark fleet and Iran—are being removed from circulation, leaving other producers scrambling for additional transportation capacity. The investment bank also expects non-sanctioned producers, especially non-OPEC, to increase production volumes. In the coming months, if OPEC statements hold true, additional volumes from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf producers are also expected to enter the market. Spare production capacity is expected to be utilized soon.

Currently, the global VLCC market consists of approximately 906 ships, 18 of which are already being used for floating storage. This leaves an available fleet of 888 VLCCs, of which 95 are under sanctions. Another 45 have been identified as having transported Iranian barrels, making them subject to sanctions as well. The former Biden administration had already placed 39 VLCCs on the OFAC list between October 2024 and January 2025. The current Trump administration is expected to impose additional or even maximum pressure sanctions on Iran and Russia in the coming months.

The global seaborne crude oil trade is approximately 40 million bpd, with VLCCs handling 22 million bpd. The dark fleet is believed to transport around 2 million bpd of these volumes. Jefferies predicts that overall VLCC fleet utilization will reach around 90% in 2025, with roughly 10% of ships sanctioned. If all OFAC measures are implemented, this figure could rise to 15%, removing an additional 45 VLCCs from the market.

Given this outlook, recent statements from ADNOC Logistics & Services (L&S) CFO Nick Gleeson come as no surprise. Gleeson stated that VLCCs currently represent an extremely attractive investment opportunity. ADNOC L&S has been building a strong position in the maritime logistics sector within the GCC, with ambitions to become a true global player. Over the past few months, the Abu Dhabi giant has expanded its fleet with 32 tankers following the acquisition of Navig8, a deal finalized last month. Since its listing in 2023, ADNOC L&S has launched an aggressive $6 billion expansion drive. Gleeson also stated that post-IPO spending is just the beginning. With backing from ADNOC and other key stakeholders, the company is poised to expand globally, with further acquisitions in the VLCC market expected.

In its FY2024 financial report last week, ADNOC L&S reaffirmed its capital expenditure guidance, reflecting its commitment to long-term growth and strategic expansion. The company anticipates an additional $3 billion+ in value-accretive organic investment by 2029, beyond already announced projects, applying the same investment return criteria.

At the same time, Norway’s Domestic Wealth Fund has also been highly active. Reports indicate that the smaller Norwegian SWF, which holds $36 billion, increased its shares in Frontline and Hafnia, two major tanker companies, in the second half of 2024. Folketrygdfondet, the fund manager, raised its stake in Frontline to 5.9%, up from 4.9% in June 2024. The stake is now valued at NOK 2 billion, or approximately 13 million Frontline shares.

A Bullish VLCC Market – But With Risks Ahead

The VLCC market is fundamentally bullish, driven by U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia’s dark fleet and Iran. Meanwhile, total crude oil demand remains strong, so removing sanctioned VLCCs from circulation will push freight rates even higher.

However, a black swan looms on the horizon. With around 80 new VLCCs currently on order, price pressures could emerge. The impact of these additions will depend on broader geopolitics—particularly U.S.-Russia-China dynamics—and the fact that nearly 100 VLCCs will reach 20+ years of age soon. While scrapping these aging vessels is likely, economic factors could influence the decision to keep them operational.

Given the prudent strategies of major players—especially Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia—significant shifts are expected in the market. A surge of Arab investments in VLCCs is clearly on the horizon. For other market players, the time to act is now if they want to maintain their share. Geopolitical factors must also be considered, as vessel ownership will increasingly influence which routes crude oil flows through worldwide.

By Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com

 

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