In North Carolina, Duke Energy to offer rebates for rooftop solar paired with batteries

Energy News Beat

​[[{“value”:”

It’s called the “solar coaster:” The ups and downs the industry faces as solar-friendly policies ebb and flow. And in North Carolina, rooftop installers are in the middle of one wild ride.

On the heels of cutting bill credits for residential solar panels in October, Duke Energy is now poised to offer new rebates for rooftop arrays that are paired with batteries. Combined with federal incentives, the new “PowerPair” rebates could cut the cost of solar and battery systems in half and inject new interest in rooftop solar, which many installers say waned last fall.

“We definitely saw a dip,” said Doug Ager, the CEO and co-founder of Sugar Hollow Solar, describing his company’s business in the last quarter of 2023. But at least in the short-term, he said, “PowerPair will change all that.”

Approved to roll out in May, the pilot program will initially serve only an estimated 6,000 to 7,000 households. But proponents say it could pave the way for a new paradigm in which Duke invests in and manages distributed renewable energy and storage the same way it might a traditional power plant.

“It’s opening the door to active load management from Duke that is going to be increasingly important,” said David Neal, the senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center who helped negotiate the program. Heralding the pilot as one of the first of its kind, he said, “it’s going to be a lot more cost effective than just building new generation to meet expected loads.”

Ultimately, advocates are also hopeful that the solar coaster can be smoothed out a little.

“The rooftop solar industry really has experienced quite a bit of ups and downs,” said Matt Abele, executive director of the North Carolina Sustainable Energy Association, which also helped devise the rebates. There’s still the question of what long-term strategies would support installers, he said. “But I would say this is not an insignificant program in the interim.”

Greenlit by regulators last month, the rebates grew out of a years-long dispute between Duke Energy, advocates, and the solar industry about how rooftop solar owners should be compensated for the electricity they produce. 

About 40,000 rooftops across the state boast solar arrays, the bulk of them on homes and in Duke territory. The figure accounts for a tiny fraction of North Carolina’s roughly 5 million housing units.

Despite these small numbers, Duke, like other investor-owned utilities around the country, has long sought to lower the state’s one-to-one net metering credit, which it says unfairly burdens both the company and customers that don’t have solar panels.  

Solar installers and advocates contend that rooftop arrays provide more benefits than costs, including cleaner air, fewer electrons lost in transmission, and reduced need for electricity from centralized fossil fuel power plants. Their assertion is backed up by most independent studies of rooftop solar, a 2019 analysis found.

Still, a pair of state laws, both heavily influenced by Duke, mandate a change to the current net metering scheme by 2027. To avoid the bruising battles and excessive fees on solar customers seen in California and elsewhere, some of the state’s leading clean energy advocates and solar installers forged a complicated truce with the utility. 

The crux of the agreement is a move toward “time of use” billing. New residential solar owners are charged and rewarded more for electrons they add to or subtract from the grid during peak demand hours of 6 to 9 p.m. in the summer and 6 to 9 a.m. in the winter. On a monthly basis, any net solar electrons added to the grid are credited at the “avoided cost” rate — akin to a wholesale rate and currently about 3.4 cents per kilowatt hour.

Diligent solar owners can squeeze benefits out of this complex billing scheme, some installers say. But to ease the transition, they also negotiated a simpler, lower-risk “bridge rate” with Duke, in which solar customers enrolling before 2027 get a monthly credit at the wholesale rate for any electrons they add to the grid. 

Regulators on the utilities commission accepted these compromises last March and ultimately ordered new rates to begin October 1. But they rejected another component of the deal, which would have given customers with electric heat an extra rebate for enrolling in Duke’s smart thermostat program, in which the utility can make temperature adjustments from afar.  

“Instead, the Commission directs Duke to develop a pilot program,” their order read, “to evaluate operational impacts to the electric system, if any, of behind the meter residential solar plus energy storage.” 

PowerPair is the result. “This program was in many ways a result of our negotiations around net metering,” Dave Hollister, the president of Sundance Power Systems, said over email.

Devised after months of conversations between Duke, solar installers, clean energy advocates, and others, the new rebates would be based on the size of the solar array and battery and capped at $3,600 and $5,400 respectively. Combined with a 30% federal tax credit, the cash back could cut the cost of an average $40,500 system down to less than $20,000. 

For customers, the deal is “actually really, really good in terms of the economics,” one installer said. And for Duke, the rebates could prove a low-cost strategy for smoothing out spikes in demand and strengthening the resilience of the grid.

“Cost effective and dispatchable customer-sited resources are key components of our clean energy transition,” Lon Huber, a senior vice president at Duke, said in an email. “We are committed to expanding the scope and adding ways for our customers to deploy grid beneficial technology.”

Customers will be divided into two equal cohorts. Those subscribed to the simpler bridge will allow the utility to remotely control their battery up to 18 times a year and will earn an extra $37 a month on average. Enrollees in the more complicated time-of-use rate plan, on the other hand, won’t get monthly incentives but would have control of their batteries. 

“It will be interesting to see how many folks will allow Duke to control their battery and who wants to have that freedom and independence to manage their customer-generated electricity themselves,” Hollister said. “ We deal with so many folks who are looking for self-reliance and the idea of ‘smart grid’ is somewhat of a third rail for them.”

Already, batteries are popular options for rooftop solar customers. Installers say between a quarter and 40% of their clients were already choosing them for a variety of reasons, from a desire to save money to a quest for energy security in the face of outages. 

Sugar Hollow Solar’s Ager said residential storage fits with the western North Carolina vibe. “Being in the mountains,” he said, “people just want batteries.”

With the PowerPair, the percentage of solar arrays paired with storage will undoubtedly rise, and many installers predicted it would double. 

“I fully anticipate us selling tons of systems with batteries,” said Brandon Pendry, communications and outreach specialist with Southern Energy Management, one of the state’s oldest installers and a negotiator for both the bridge rate and the PowerPair scheme. 

To avoid the problem installers and their clients faced with the last round of rooftop solar rebates — when demand far exceeded supply each year and available grants disappeared in minutes — the architects of the program gave it an overall cap of 60,000 kilowatts but no annual limits. That way, rooftop solar and battery owners can get the rebates on a rolling basis.  

“In this case, there is only one capacity and it’s not time dependent,” said Pendry. “It’s just: when it runs out, it runs out.”

If customers choose the maximum allowable size of a 10 kilowatt solar array, a total of 6,000 households could benefit. But no one really knows when the capacity will be reached, with some predicting 18 months from May and others estimating as few as four. 

Duke projects it will connect 11,400 residential rooftop systems this year. But a spokesperson said it was simply too early to tell when PowerPair rebates would dry up. 

Once they do, the hope is that data gathered during the pilot will inform whatever comes next. 

“It may possibly be a win-win for everyone,” Hollister said, “especially if it can be extended or transformed into a more permanent program.” 

Since half of the PowerPair cohorts will be using the bridge rate, there’s some chance a permanent program would extend that rate’s life — a key priority for some in the industry.  

No matter what, while most installers contacted for this article eagerly await the pilot, they’re also clear-eyed about their business plan for the future.

“We have been installing solar in [the state] for over a decade and have certainly seen lots of incentives come and go, said Jesse Solomon, vice president and director of sales for N.C Solar Now, in an email. “But we have always been able to design the investment to make sense for our clients.” 

Solar installers also focus on the overall trends buoying their industry: Fossil fuels are becoming more expensive, while the materials designed to harness and store forever-free sunlight are getting cheaper.

Every year Duke raises rates, said Pendry of Southern Energy Management, “solar becomes a better and better investment.”

“}]] 

The post In North Carolina, Duke Energy to offer rebates for rooftop solar paired with batteries appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

In North Carolina, Duke Energy to offer rebates for rooftop solar paired with batteries

Energy News Beat

​[[{“value”:”

It’s called the “solar coaster:” The ups and downs the industry faces as solar-friendly policies ebb and flow. And in North Carolina, rooftop installers are in the middle of one wild ride.

On the heels of cutting bill credits for residential solar panels in October, Duke Energy is now poised to offer new rebates for rooftop arrays that are paired with batteries. Combined with federal incentives, the new “PowerPair” rebates could cut the cost of solar and battery systems in half and inject new interest in rooftop solar, which many installers say waned last fall.

“We definitely saw a dip,” said Doug Ager, the CEO and co-founder of Sugar Hollow Solar, describing his company’s business in the last quarter of 2023. But at least in the short-term, he said, “PowerPair will change all that.”

Approved to roll out in May, the pilot program will initially serve only an estimated 6,000 to 7,000 households. But proponents say it could pave the way for a new paradigm in which Duke invests in and manages distributed renewable energy and storage the same way it might a traditional power plant.

“It’s opening the door to active load management from Duke that is going to be increasingly important,” said David Neal, the senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center who helped negotiate the program. Heralding the pilot as one of the first of its kind, he said, “it’s going to be a lot more cost effective than just building new generation to meet expected loads.”

Ultimately, advocates are also hopeful that the solar coaster can be smoothed out a little.

“The rooftop solar industry really has experienced quite a bit of ups and downs,” said Matt Abele, executive director of the North Carolina Sustainable Energy Association, which also helped devise the rebates. There’s still the question of what long-term strategies would support installers, he said. “But I would say this is not an insignificant program in the interim.”

Greenlit by regulators last month, the rebates grew out of a years-long dispute between Duke Energy, advocates, and the solar industry about how rooftop solar owners should be compensated for the electricity they produce. 

About 40,000 rooftops across the state boast solar arrays, the bulk of them on homes and in Duke territory. The figure accounts for a tiny fraction of North Carolina’s roughly 5 million housing units.

Despite these small numbers, Duke, like other investor-owned utilities around the country, has long sought to lower the state’s one-to-one net metering credit, which it says unfairly burdens both the company and customers that don’t have solar panels.  

Solar installers and advocates contend that rooftop arrays provide more benefits than costs, including cleaner air, fewer electrons lost in transmission, and reduced need for electricity from centralized fossil fuel power plants. Their assertion is backed up by most independent studies of rooftop solar, a 2019 analysis found.

Still, a pair of state laws, both heavily influenced by Duke, mandate a change to the current net metering scheme by 2027. To avoid the bruising battles and excessive fees on solar customers seen in California and elsewhere, some of the state’s leading clean energy advocates and solar installers forged a complicated truce with the utility. 

The crux of the agreement is a move toward “time of use” billing. New residential solar owners are charged and rewarded more for electrons they add to or subtract from the grid during peak demand hours of 6 to 9 p.m. in the summer and 6 to 9 a.m. in the winter. On a monthly basis, any net solar electrons added to the grid are credited at the “avoided cost” rate — akin to a wholesale rate and currently about 3.4 cents per kilowatt hour.

Diligent solar owners can squeeze benefits out of this complex billing scheme, some installers say. But to ease the transition, they also negotiated a simpler, lower-risk “bridge rate” with Duke, in which solar customers enrolling before 2027 get a monthly credit at the wholesale rate for any electrons they add to the grid. 

Regulators on the utilities commission accepted these compromises last March and ultimately ordered new rates to begin October 1. But they rejected another component of the deal, which would have given customers with electric heat an extra rebate for enrolling in Duke’s smart thermostat program, in which the utility can make temperature adjustments from afar.  

“Instead, the Commission directs Duke to develop a pilot program,” their order read, “to evaluate operational impacts to the electric system, if any, of behind the meter residential solar plus energy storage.” 

PowerPair is the result. “This program was in many ways a result of our negotiations around net metering,” Dave Hollister, the president of Sundance Power Systems, said over email.

Devised after months of conversations between Duke, solar installers, clean energy advocates, and others, the new rebates would be based on the size of the solar array and battery and capped at $3,600 and $5,400 respectively. Combined with a 30% federal tax credit, the cash back could cut the cost of an average $40,500 system down to less than $20,000. 

For customers, the deal is “actually really, really good in terms of the economics,” one installer said. And for Duke, the rebates could prove a low-cost strategy for smoothing out spikes in demand and strengthening the resilience of the grid.

“Cost effective and dispatchable customer-sited resources are key components of our clean energy transition,” Lon Huber, a senior vice president at Duke, said in an email. “We are committed to expanding the scope and adding ways for our customers to deploy grid beneficial technology.”

Customers will be divided into two equal cohorts. Those subscribed to the simpler bridge will allow the utility to remotely control their battery up to 18 times a year and will earn an extra $37 a month on average. Enrollees in the more complicated time-of-use rate plan, on the other hand, won’t get monthly incentives but would have control of their batteries. 

“It will be interesting to see how many folks will allow Duke to control their battery and who wants to have that freedom and independence to manage their customer-generated electricity themselves,” Hollister said. “ We deal with so many folks who are looking for self-reliance and the idea of ‘smart grid’ is somewhat of a third rail for them.”

Already, batteries are popular options for rooftop solar customers. Installers say between a quarter and 40% of their clients were already choosing them for a variety of reasons, from a desire to save money to a quest for energy security in the face of outages. 

Sugar Hollow Solar’s Ager said residential storage fits with the western North Carolina vibe. “Being in the mountains,” he said, “people just want batteries.”

With the PowerPair, the percentage of solar arrays paired with storage will undoubtedly rise, and many installers predicted it would double. 

“I fully anticipate us selling tons of systems with batteries,” said Brandon Pendry, communications and outreach specialist with Southern Energy Management, one of the state’s oldest installers and a negotiator for both the bridge rate and the PowerPair scheme. 

To avoid the problem installers and their clients faced with the last round of rooftop solar rebates — when demand far exceeded supply each year and available grants disappeared in minutes — the architects of the program gave it an overall cap of 60,000 kilowatts but no annual limits. That way, rooftop solar and battery owners can get the rebates on a rolling basis.  

“In this case, there is only one capacity and it’s not time dependent,” said Pendry. “It’s just: when it runs out, it runs out.”

If customers choose the maximum allowable size of a 10 kilowatt solar array, a total of 6,000 households could benefit. But no one really knows when the capacity will be reached, with some predicting 18 months from May and others estimating as few as four. 

Duke projects it will connect 11,400 residential rooftop systems this year. But a spokesperson said it was simply too early to tell when PowerPair rebates would dry up. 

Once they do, the hope is that data gathered during the pilot will inform whatever comes next. 

“It may possibly be a win-win for everyone,” Hollister said, “especially if it can be extended or transformed into a more permanent program.” 

Since half of the PowerPair cohorts will be using the bridge rate, there’s some chance a permanent program would extend that rate’s life — a key priority for some in the industry.  

No matter what, while most installers contacted for this article eagerly await the pilot, they’re also clear-eyed about their business plan for the future.

“We have been installing solar in [the state] for over a decade and have certainly seen lots of incentives come and go, said Jesse Solomon, vice president and director of sales for N.C Solar Now, in an email. “But we have always been able to design the investment to make sense for our clients.” 

Solar installers also focus on the overall trends buoying their industry: Fossil fuels are becoming more expensive, while the materials designed to harness and store forever-free sunlight are getting cheaper.

Every year Duke raises rates, said Pendry of Southern Energy Management, “solar becomes a better and better investment.”

“}]] 

The post In North Carolina, Duke Energy to offer rebates for rooftop solar paired with batteries appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

In North Carolina, Duke Energy to offer rebates for rooftop solar paired with batteries

Energy News Beat

​[[{“value”:”

It’s called the “solar coaster:” The ups and downs the industry faces as solar-friendly policies ebb and flow. And in North Carolina, rooftop installers are in the middle of one wild ride.

On the heels of cutting bill credits for residential solar panels in October, Duke Energy is now poised to offer new rebates for rooftop arrays that are paired with batteries. Combined with federal incentives, the new “PowerPair” rebates could cut the cost of solar and battery systems in half and inject new interest in rooftop solar, which many installers say waned last fall.

“We definitely saw a dip,” said Doug Ager, the CEO and co-founder of Sugar Hollow Solar, describing his company’s business in the last quarter of 2023. But at least in the short-term, he said, “PowerPair will change all that.”

Approved to roll out in May, the pilot program will initially serve only an estimated 6,000 to 7,000 households. But proponents say it could pave the way for a new paradigm in which Duke invests in and manages distributed renewable energy and storage the same way it might a traditional power plant.

“It’s opening the door to active load management from Duke that is going to be increasingly important,” said David Neal, the senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center who helped negotiate the program. Heralding the pilot as one of the first of its kind, he said, “it’s going to be a lot more cost effective than just building new generation to meet expected loads.”

Ultimately, advocates are also hopeful that the solar coaster can be smoothed out a little.

“The rooftop solar industry really has experienced quite a bit of ups and downs,” said Matt Abele, executive director of the North Carolina Sustainable Energy Association, which also helped devise the rebates. There’s still the question of what long-term strategies would support installers, he said. “But I would say this is not an insignificant program in the interim.”

Greenlit by regulators last month, the rebates grew out of a years-long dispute between Duke Energy, advocates, and the solar industry about how rooftop solar owners should be compensated for the electricity they produce. 

About 40,000 rooftops across the state boast solar arrays, the bulk of them on homes and in Duke territory. The figure accounts for a tiny fraction of North Carolina’s roughly 5 million housing units.

Despite these small numbers, Duke, like other investor-owned utilities around the country, has long sought to lower the state’s one-to-one net metering credit, which it says unfairly burdens both the company and customers that don’t have solar panels.  

Solar installers and advocates contend that rooftop arrays provide more benefits than costs, including cleaner air, fewer electrons lost in transmission, and reduced need for electricity from centralized fossil fuel power plants. Their assertion is backed up by most independent studies of rooftop solar, a 2019 analysis found.

Still, a pair of state laws, both heavily influenced by Duke, mandate a change to the current net metering scheme by 2027. To avoid the bruising battles and excessive fees on solar customers seen in California and elsewhere, some of the state’s leading clean energy advocates and solar installers forged a complicated truce with the utility. 

The crux of the agreement is a move toward “time of use” billing. New residential solar owners are charged and rewarded more for electrons they add to or subtract from the grid during peak demand hours of 6 to 9 p.m. in the summer and 6 to 9 a.m. in the winter. On a monthly basis, any net solar electrons added to the grid are credited at the “avoided cost” rate — akin to a wholesale rate and currently about 3.4 cents per kilowatt hour.

Diligent solar owners can squeeze benefits out of this complex billing scheme, some installers say. But to ease the transition, they also negotiated a simpler, lower-risk “bridge rate” with Duke, in which solar customers enrolling before 2027 get a monthly credit at the wholesale rate for any electrons they add to the grid. 

Regulators on the utilities commission accepted these compromises last March and ultimately ordered new rates to begin October 1. But they rejected another component of the deal, which would have given customers with electric heat an extra rebate for enrolling in Duke’s smart thermostat program, in which the utility can make temperature adjustments from afar.  

“Instead, the Commission directs Duke to develop a pilot program,” their order read, “to evaluate operational impacts to the electric system, if any, of behind the meter residential solar plus energy storage.” 

PowerPair is the result. “This program was in many ways a result of our negotiations around net metering,” Dave Hollister, the president of Sundance Power Systems, said over email.

Devised after months of conversations between Duke, solar installers, clean energy advocates, and others, the new rebates would be based on the size of the solar array and battery and capped at $3,600 and $5,400 respectively. Combined with a 30% federal tax credit, the cash back could cut the cost of an average $40,500 system down to less than $20,000. 

For customers, the deal is “actually really, really good in terms of the economics,” one installer said. And for Duke, the rebates could prove a low-cost strategy for smoothing out spikes in demand and strengthening the resilience of the grid.

“Cost effective and dispatchable customer-sited resources are key components of our clean energy transition,” Lon Huber, a senior vice president at Duke, said in an email. “We are committed to expanding the scope and adding ways for our customers to deploy grid beneficial technology.”

Customers will be divided into two equal cohorts. Those subscribed to the simpler bridge will allow the utility to remotely control their battery up to 18 times a year and will earn an extra $37 a month on average. Enrollees in the more complicated time-of-use rate plan, on the other hand, won’t get monthly incentives but would have control of their batteries. 

“It will be interesting to see how many folks will allow Duke to control their battery and who wants to have that freedom and independence to manage their customer-generated electricity themselves,” Hollister said. “ We deal with so many folks who are looking for self-reliance and the idea of ‘smart grid’ is somewhat of a third rail for them.”

Already, batteries are popular options for rooftop solar customers. Installers say between a quarter and 40% of their clients were already choosing them for a variety of reasons, from a desire to save money to a quest for energy security in the face of outages. 

Sugar Hollow Solar’s Ager said residential storage fits with the western North Carolina vibe. “Being in the mountains,” he said, “people just want batteries.”

With the PowerPair, the percentage of solar arrays paired with storage will undoubtedly rise, and many installers predicted it would double. 

“I fully anticipate us selling tons of systems with batteries,” said Brandon Pendry, communications and outreach specialist with Southern Energy Management, one of the state’s oldest installers and a negotiator for both the bridge rate and the PowerPair scheme. 

To avoid the problem installers and their clients faced with the last round of rooftop solar rebates — when demand far exceeded supply each year and available grants disappeared in minutes — the architects of the program gave it an overall cap of 60,000 kilowatts but no annual limits. That way, rooftop solar and battery owners can get the rebates on a rolling basis.  

“In this case, there is only one capacity and it’s not time dependent,” said Pendry. “It’s just: when it runs out, it runs out.”

If customers choose the maximum allowable size of a 10 kilowatt solar array, a total of 6,000 households could benefit. But no one really knows when the capacity will be reached, with some predicting 18 months from May and others estimating as few as four. 

Duke projects it will connect 11,400 residential rooftop systems this year. But a spokesperson said it was simply too early to tell when PowerPair rebates would dry up. 

Once they do, the hope is that data gathered during the pilot will inform whatever comes next. 

“It may possibly be a win-win for everyone,” Hollister said, “especially if it can be extended or transformed into a more permanent program.” 

Since half of the PowerPair cohorts will be using the bridge rate, there’s some chance a permanent program would extend that rate’s life — a key priority for some in the industry.  

No matter what, while most installers contacted for this article eagerly await the pilot, they’re also clear-eyed about their business plan for the future.

“We have been installing solar in [the state] for over a decade and have certainly seen lots of incentives come and go, said Jesse Solomon, vice president and director of sales for N.C Solar Now, in an email. “But we have always been able to design the investment to make sense for our clients.” 

Solar installers also focus on the overall trends buoying their industry: Fossil fuels are becoming more expensive, while the materials designed to harness and store forever-free sunlight are getting cheaper.

Every year Duke raises rates, said Pendry of Southern Energy Management, “solar becomes a better and better investment.”

“}]] 

The post In North Carolina, Duke Energy to offer rebates for rooftop solar paired with batteries appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

In North Carolina, Duke Energy to offer rebates for rooftop solar paired with batteries

Energy News Beat

​[[{“value”:”

It’s called the “solar coaster:” The ups and downs the industry faces as solar-friendly policies ebb and flow. And in North Carolina, rooftop installers are in the middle of one wild ride.

On the heels of cutting bill credits for residential solar panels in October, Duke Energy is now poised to offer new rebates for rooftop arrays that are paired with batteries. Combined with federal incentives, the new “PowerPair” rebates could cut the cost of solar and battery systems in half and inject new interest in rooftop solar, which many installers say waned last fall.

“We definitely saw a dip,” said Doug Ager, the CEO and co-founder of Sugar Hollow Solar, describing his company’s business in the last quarter of 2023. But at least in the short-term, he said, “PowerPair will change all that.”

Approved to roll out in May, the pilot program will initially serve only an estimated 6,000 to 7,000 households. But proponents say it could pave the way for a new paradigm in which Duke invests in and manages distributed renewable energy and storage the same way it might a traditional power plant.

“It’s opening the door to active load management from Duke that is going to be increasingly important,” said David Neal, the senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center who helped negotiate the program. Heralding the pilot as one of the first of its kind, he said, “it’s going to be a lot more cost effective than just building new generation to meet expected loads.”

Ultimately, advocates are also hopeful that the solar coaster can be smoothed out a little.

“The rooftop solar industry really has experienced quite a bit of ups and downs,” said Matt Abele, executive director of the North Carolina Sustainable Energy Association, which also helped devise the rebates. There’s still the question of what long-term strategies would support installers, he said. “But I would say this is not an insignificant program in the interim.”

Greenlit by regulators last month, the rebates grew out of a years-long dispute between Duke Energy, advocates, and the solar industry about how rooftop solar owners should be compensated for the electricity they produce. 

About 40,000 rooftops across the state boast solar arrays, the bulk of them on homes and in Duke territory. The figure accounts for a tiny fraction of North Carolina’s roughly 5 million housing units.

Despite these small numbers, Duke, like other investor-owned utilities around the country, has long sought to lower the state’s one-to-one net metering credit, which it says unfairly burdens both the company and customers that don’t have solar panels.  

Solar installers and advocates contend that rooftop arrays provide more benefits than costs, including cleaner air, fewer electrons lost in transmission, and reduced need for electricity from centralized fossil fuel power plants. Their assertion is backed up by most independent studies of rooftop solar, a 2019 analysis found.

Still, a pair of state laws, both heavily influenced by Duke, mandate a change to the current net metering scheme by 2027. To avoid the bruising battles and excessive fees on solar customers seen in California and elsewhere, some of the state’s leading clean energy advocates and solar installers forged a complicated truce with the utility. 

The crux of the agreement is a move toward “time of use” billing. New residential solar owners are charged and rewarded more for electrons they add to or subtract from the grid during peak demand hours of 6 to 9 p.m. in the summer and 6 to 9 a.m. in the winter. On a monthly basis, any net solar electrons added to the grid are credited at the “avoided cost” rate — akin to a wholesale rate and currently about 3.4 cents per kilowatt hour.

Diligent solar owners can squeeze benefits out of this complex billing scheme, some installers say. But to ease the transition, they also negotiated a simpler, lower-risk “bridge rate” with Duke, in which solar customers enrolling before 2027 get a monthly credit at the wholesale rate for any electrons they add to the grid. 

Regulators on the utilities commission accepted these compromises last March and ultimately ordered new rates to begin October 1. But they rejected another component of the deal, which would have given customers with electric heat an extra rebate for enrolling in Duke’s smart thermostat program, in which the utility can make temperature adjustments from afar.  

“Instead, the Commission directs Duke to develop a pilot program,” their order read, “to evaluate operational impacts to the electric system, if any, of behind the meter residential solar plus energy storage.” 

PowerPair is the result. “This program was in many ways a result of our negotiations around net metering,” Dave Hollister, the president of Sundance Power Systems, said over email.

Devised after months of conversations between Duke, solar installers, clean energy advocates, and others, the new rebates would be based on the size of the solar array and battery and capped at $3,600 and $5,400 respectively. Combined with a 30% federal tax credit, the cash back could cut the cost of an average $40,500 system down to less than $20,000. 

For customers, the deal is “actually really, really good in terms of the economics,” one installer said. And for Duke, the rebates could prove a low-cost strategy for smoothing out spikes in demand and strengthening the resilience of the grid.

“Cost effective and dispatchable customer-sited resources are key components of our clean energy transition,” Lon Huber, a senior vice president at Duke, said in an email. “We are committed to expanding the scope and adding ways for our customers to deploy grid beneficial technology.”

Customers will be divided into two equal cohorts. Those subscribed to the simpler bridge will allow the utility to remotely control their battery up to 18 times a year and will earn an extra $37 a month on average. Enrollees in the more complicated time-of-use rate plan, on the other hand, won’t get monthly incentives but would have control of their batteries. 

“It will be interesting to see how many folks will allow Duke to control their battery and who wants to have that freedom and independence to manage their customer-generated electricity themselves,” Hollister said. “ We deal with so many folks who are looking for self-reliance and the idea of ‘smart grid’ is somewhat of a third rail for them.”

Already, batteries are popular options for rooftop solar customers. Installers say between a quarter and 40% of their clients were already choosing them for a variety of reasons, from a desire to save money to a quest for energy security in the face of outages. 

Sugar Hollow Solar’s Ager said residential storage fits with the western North Carolina vibe. “Being in the mountains,” he said, “people just want batteries.”

With the PowerPair, the percentage of solar arrays paired with storage will undoubtedly rise, and many installers predicted it would double. 

“I fully anticipate us selling tons of systems with batteries,” said Brandon Pendry, communications and outreach specialist with Southern Energy Management, one of the state’s oldest installers and a negotiator for both the bridge rate and the PowerPair scheme. 

To avoid the problem installers and their clients faced with the last round of rooftop solar rebates — when demand far exceeded supply each year and available grants disappeared in minutes — the architects of the program gave it an overall cap of 60,000 kilowatts but no annual limits. That way, rooftop solar and battery owners can get the rebates on a rolling basis.  

“In this case, there is only one capacity and it’s not time dependent,” said Pendry. “It’s just: when it runs out, it runs out.”

If customers choose the maximum allowable size of a 10 kilowatt solar array, a total of 6,000 households could benefit. But no one really knows when the capacity will be reached, with some predicting 18 months from May and others estimating as few as four. 

Duke projects it will connect 11,400 residential rooftop systems this year. But a spokesperson said it was simply too early to tell when PowerPair rebates would dry up. 

Once they do, the hope is that data gathered during the pilot will inform whatever comes next. 

“It may possibly be a win-win for everyone,” Hollister said, “especially if it can be extended or transformed into a more permanent program.” 

Since half of the PowerPair cohorts will be using the bridge rate, there’s some chance a permanent program would extend that rate’s life — a key priority for some in the industry.  

No matter what, while most installers contacted for this article eagerly await the pilot, they’re also clear-eyed about their business plan for the future.

“We have been installing solar in [the state] for over a decade and have certainly seen lots of incentives come and go, said Jesse Solomon, vice president and director of sales for N.C Solar Now, in an email. “But we have always been able to design the investment to make sense for our clients.” 

Solar installers also focus on the overall trends buoying their industry: Fossil fuels are becoming more expensive, while the materials designed to harness and store forever-free sunlight are getting cheaper.

Every year Duke raises rates, said Pendry of Southern Energy Management, “solar becomes a better and better investment.”

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TotalEnergies reports lower LNG earnings, sales

Energy News Beat

France’s TotalEnergies said on Wednesday that the company’s integrated LNG business logged a decline in its adjusted net operating income in the fourth quarter of 2023 due to lower prices.

The company’s integrated LNG adjusted net income reached about $1.46 billion in the fourth quarter, a drop of 40 percent compared to the fourth quarter in 2022.

Compared to $1.34 billion in the previous quarter, integrated LNG adjusted net income rose 8 percent, reflecting the evolution of prices and production volumes, TotalEnergies said.

For full-year 2023, integrated LNG adjusted net operating income was $6.2 billion, down 37 percent year-on-year, excluding Novatek, mainly due to the “exceptional environment in 2022 linked to the energy crisis in Europe resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” the firm said.

Cash flow from operations excluding working capital for integrated LNG was $1.76 billion in the fourth quarter 2023, up 7 percent quarter-to-quarter, reflecting the evolution of prices and production volumes.

Integrated LNG CFFO was down 25 percent year-on-year, mainly due to lower LNG prices that were partially offset by high margins captured in 2022 on LNG cargoes delivered in 2023, TotalEnergies said.

Last month, TotalEnergies said its average price for LNG equity sales in the fourth quarter was $10.28/MMBtu, up by 7 percent compared to $9.56/MMBtu in the previous quarter.

However, the price declined 31 percent compared to $14.83/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2022, when European demand was high as European countries worked to replace pipeline gas supplies with LNG.

Overall, TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of $5.2 billion in the fourth quarter. This compares to $6.45 billion in the prior quarter and $7.56 billion in the same quarter in 2022.

“In an uncertain environment, TotalEnergies’ balanced transition strategy, which combines growth in oil & gas, in particular in LNG, and integrated power, delivered strong results in 2023, in line with its objectives. During the fourth quarter, TotalEnergies generated adjusted net income of $5.2 billion and cash flow of $8.5 billion. IFRS net income was $5.1 billion,” chief executive Patrick Pouyanne, said.

He said that in 2023 TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of $23.2 billion and cash flow of $35.9 billion.

2023 IFRS net income was $21.4 billion, up 4 percent year-on-year.

“This year the company once again achieved top tier 20 percent return on equity and 19 percent return on average capital employed. TotalEnergies invested $16.8 billion, including 35 percent for low-carbon energies mainly in power,” Pouyanne said.

In the oil & gas business, fourth quarter production was 2.46 Mboe/d, which benefited from 7 percent LNG production growth quarter-to-quarter.

Moreover, full-year 2023 total production increased 2 percent year-on-year, excluding Novatek, driven by strong LNG production growth of 9 percent, he said.

Pouyanne said integrated LNG results “remain robust” and they rose compared to the previous quarter driven by higher production and strengthening prices.

“For full year 2023, integrated LNG generated annual adjusted net operating income of $6.2 billion and cash flow of $7.3 billion, which is lower than the exceptional results in 2022 but higher than 2021 thanks to growth in its portfolio,” the CEO added.

During the fourth quarter, TotalEnergies sold 11.8 million tonnes of LNG, down 7 percent compared to 12.7 million tonnes in the same period last year, and a rise compared to 10.5 million tonnes in the prior quarter.

In the fourth quarter, LNG sales increased 13 percent quarter-to-quarter, mainly due to higher production and higher spot volumes.

The company’s LNG sales decreased 8 percent year-on-year to 44.3 million tonnes in 2023.

TotalEnergies said LNG sales were down mainly due to lower spot volumes related to lower demand in Europe as a result of a milder winter weather and high inventories.

Hydrocarbon production for LNG, excluding Novatek, was up 7 percent quarter-to-quarter to 464 kboe/d, reflecting lower unplanned shutdowns.

For full-year 2023, hydrocarbon production for LNG, excluding Novatek, was up 9 percent to compared to 2022 due to increased supply to NLNG in Nigeria and higher availability of Ichthys LNG in Australia and Snovhit in Norway, TotalEnergies said.

Looking ahead, TotalEnergies said LNG markets “should remain in tension due to very limited LNG capacity additions expected in 2024 (2 percent) and growing demand thanks to lower LNG prices.”

TotalEnergies expects LNG sales above 40 Mt over the year.

“Given the evolution of oil and gas prices in recent months and the lag effect on price formulas, TotalEnergies anticipates that its average LNG selling price should be stable around $10/Mbtu in the first quarter 2024,” it said.

“Despite entering the winter period with high natural gas inventories in Europe, in a tense market, gas prices remain very reactive to production disruptions,” TotalEnergies said.

TotalEnergies expects hydrocarbon production to be above 2.4 Mboe/d in the first quarter of this year due to the start-up of Mero 2 in Brazil and the disposals of Canadian upstream assets, effective during fourth quarter 2023.

In 2024, the company expects net investments of $17-18 billion, of which $5 billion dedicated to integrated power.

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Venezuelan oil sanctions to return in April – Or will they be pushed out?

Energy News Beat

The US has announced the expiration of Venezuela’s oil sanctions exemption in April.

Last October, Washington issued a six-month general licence for transactions involving Venezuela’s oil and gas sector following an electoral roadmap agreement signed by Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and opposition politicians in Barbados. Since then, Maduro has not stuck to his promises for a free election.

Since the exemption was granted, the US has been importing 26% of Venezuelan crude, totalling 142,000 barrels per day, according to Vortexa. China remains the top destination for Venezuelan barrels, averaging 293,000 barrels per day in 2023.

“Oil exports have picked up in Venezuela over the last two years as the US has eased sanctions since the start of 2023,” analysts at Braemar noted.

“These developments show the potential fragility of oil sanctions relief deals as well as ongoing US commitment to upholding the other end of the deal in such a case,” tanker experts at rival broker Gibson suggested.

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Europe to give shipping priority access to greener fuels

Energy News Beat

The European Commission published on Tuesday its proposal for a 2040 climate target laying out the pathway to make the European Union climate neutral by 2050 with shipping shown its green pathway, and a noticeable rapprochement with the industry’s global regulator, the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

European shipowners welcomed the commitment of the commission to address “barriers to the deployment of low- and zero-emissions fuels including e-fuels and advanced biofuels” in shipping and to give the sector “priority access to these fuels over sectors that have access to other decarbonisation solutions”.

The commission acknowledged that the increased costs of sustainable fuels is a key factor for the competitiveness of shipping and has committed to consider regulatory measures to foster their production.

“It’s the first time we see such a strong commitment to give shipping priority access to low- and zero-emission fuels such as advanced biofuels and e-fuels. The price gap is immense, as the cost of sustainable fuels can be four times higher compared to fuels currently used in shipping. We look forward to working with the commission to translate this commitment into immediate action, and to leverage the earmarked ETS revenues through dedicated calls already under the current Innovation Fund” said Sotiris Raptis, secretary-general of the European Community Shipowners’ Associations (ECSA).

ECSA endorsed the commission’s consideration of differentiated targets for shipping in alignment with the IMO’s greenhouse gas (GHG) strategy, under the three scenarios for the decarbonisation of the European economy. The IMO GHG strategy, which was agreed in July 2023, sets up a target of net zero GHG by 2050, with objectives of at least 70% striving for 80% by 2040.

“After the historic agreement of last July, this is a strong message of support to the IMO to develop the measures necessary to reach net-zero GHG emissions from international shipping by 2050. It’s also an important step forward to ensure European shipping operates on a level playing field” said Raptis.

In previous years, the EU, frustrated by slow progress at the IMO, had gone down on its own route for creating green regulations for shipping, something that saw the industry included in the bloc’s emission trading scheme from the start of this year.

Sofie Defour, climate director at the NGO Transport&Environment, commented: “It’s time to put an end to uncontrolled growth and profit of transport’s biggest polluters and instead focus on helping them go green by 2040.”

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Twin strikes take Houthi ship attacks to the 50 mark

Energy News Beat

With more missiles yesterday the Houthis took their merchant ship strikes to the 50 mark, underlining the severity of the security situation in Middle Eastern waters where US-led counterstrikes have failed to deter the Yemenis.

In total six missiles were fired yesterday, three at the Star Nasia kamsarmax belonging to Star Bulk and three at the UK-owned Morning Tide general cargo ship. Both ships suffered minor damage but there were no injuries to crew.

What made these attacks – the 49th and 50th since the start of November – different to previous ones, as pointed out by Lars Jensen from consultancy Vespucci Maritime, is that they took place far apart – one in the Gulf of Aden and the other in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Previously attacks have been in just one location and not both.

Speaking with Splash last week, Arsenio Dominguez, the new secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), called for a “multi-faceted” solution to the ongoing Red Sea shipping crisis.

“The solution has to be multi-faceted: enhanced ship security; a cessation of hostile activity which targets innocent seafarers; and regional and international efforts to reach a peaceful resolution to the problem,” Dominguez said.

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Shadow fleet faces tricky path to the breaker’s torch

Energy News Beat

With the numbers of the so-called shadow tanker fleet peaking 10 months ago, there’s now evidence that many of the oldest vessels are being primed for scrap, though getting a good demo price for these sanctions-busting ships is proving hard.

The 25-year-old Bradley aframax is now headed on its final voyage to Pakistan to meet the breaker’s torch. The ship was first mooted for demolition last October when sold to a cash buyer for $500 per ldt, a deal that failed when it was accused of hauling Russian crude. The ship then remained anchored in the South China Sea with brokers BRS reporting recently it has now been sold for scrap at a cut price of $450 per ldt.

Shadow tankers will face challenges in the secondhand and demolition markets

“Any tanker accused of partaking in shadow fleet business will face challenges in the secondhand and demolition markets,” BRS noted in a recent tanker report.

Pareto Securities, meanwhile, has reported that the 2005-built Adisa VLCC has been sold for demolition, a ship sanctioned by the US for its involvement in Iranian and Venezuelan tanker trades.

A more infamous name in the dark fleet is also being dismantled in Southeast Asia. One of last year’s most high-profile tanker casualties has been towed to Indonesia where it is being scrapped.

The Pablo aframax exploded on May 1 in Malaysian waters, killing three crewmembers.  The charred remains of the 1997-built ship was one of the shipping images of 2023, a stark reminder of the risks associated with the dark tanker fleet. Since 2018, TankerTrackers.com evidenced this vintage ship transfer 16m barrels of Iranian oil on 29 occasions.

The Group of 7 Nations and Australia, known as the price cap coalition, agreed in 2022 to cap Russia’s oil export prices at $60 per barrel. In December, the price cap coalition also tightened compliance rules for insurance firms and shippers. This move will require service providers, including shippers and movers of Russian oil, to receive attestations from their purchasers and sellers each time they lift or load Russian oil. It will also require insurance and freight firms to share these documents upon request with entities further down the supply chain.

“Whether Russia can continue to maintain its shadow fleet remains to be seen but it is not becoming easier,” pointed out a recent report from Arctic Securities, which also noted that the US is tightening compliance on Iran and Venezuela.

Craig Kennedy, who authors the well-researched Navigating Russia substack, detailed last month how Moscow’s shadow fleet has been running into sanction headwinds.

The recent campaign by price cap coalition countries to step up pressure on intermediaries in the shadow oil trade appears to be having an effect, Kennedy argued.

“The campaign has included a series of public enforcement actions against a small sampling of market players—shipowners, ship brokers and oil traders. It has also, reportedly, involved private overtures to a range of other entities—foreign banks, flag registries, insurers and the like—urging them to show greater diligence in their price-cap compliance,” Kennedy wrote.

Analysts at Vortexa issued a recent report showing that tankers operating in opaque markets reached a record high in Q2 last year and have since declined.

The latest data from BRS suggests there are a total of 675 tankers in what it terms as the grey fleet, representing 7.4% of the total global tanker fleet.

The peaking of the shadow fleet is also reflected in the sale and purchase market in recent days with Splash reporting earlier this week that prices for vintage VLCCs are coming down.

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Ørsted to cut up to 800 jobs and exit some offshore wind markets

Energy News Beat

Danish offshore wind giant Ørsted is cutting jobs and exiting several markets after a “substantially challenging” 12 months and massive impairments and additional costs related to its US offshore projects.

Ørsted said Wednesday it would withdraw from markets in Norway, Spain, and Portugal and cut as many as 800 jobs to reduce risks and “become a leaner and more efficient organisation”.

The move follows the termination of Ocean Wind 1 and Ocean Wind 2 offshore wind projects, the decision to reposition the Skipjack Wind project, and to primarily focus its US offshore portfolio towards the North-East Atlantic.

Project development in Japan will also be deprioritised with plans for a leaner development within floating offshore wind and power-to-x, to reduce costs and create further strategic market focus, Ørsted said.

Project cancellations and phasing of capex across the portfolio is expected to result in about $5bn of relief in 2024-2026. Farm-downs and divestment programmes are also set to speed up with targeted proceeds of about $16.5bn towards 2030, of which some $10bn-$11.5bn are estimated in the next two years.

The company said it expects a reduction of between 600 and 800 positions globally. Not all reductions will result in redundancies, but about 250 people will leave Ørsted within the coming months. Chairman Thomas Thune Andersen will be stepping down at the upcoming annual general meeting in March.

Ørsted currently has a renewable installed capacity of 15.7 GW and this is expected to increase to about 23 GW by 2026. However, the challenging market over the past few years has now forced the company to downgrade its renewable capacity target from 50 GW to 35-38 GW by 2030.

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