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TotalEnergies reports lower LNG earnings, sales

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro
01:44 – TotalEnergies reports lower LNG earnings, sales
03:36 – The True Costs Of Net-Zero Are Becoming Impossible To Hide
08:13 – U.S. natural gas consumption established a new daily record in January 2024
09:22 – Analyzing The Mediterranean Corridor’s Provisionally Planned Extension To Lvov
11:35 – Oil Market Needs $14 Trillion: OPEC Secretary General
15:44 – Markets Update
19:58 – Outro

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:14] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome in to the Thursday, February 8th, 2024 edition of the Daily Energy News Beat standup. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, TotalEnergies reports lower LNG earnings and sales. Interesting one there. Next up, oil market needs $14 trillion according to the OPEC secretary general. Absolutely unbelievable. Next up, the true cost of net zero are becoming impossible to hide. Then we’ll go to analyzing the Mediterranean corridor. Provisionally planned extension to move. This is you know, we love a good Club Med story. We know that for a fact. Oh, and we’ll finish up with U.S. natural gas consumption. Establish a new daily record in January 2024. We talked about a little bit that last night on The Daily Show. Excited to do that here. Then we will switch over, cover quickly. What’s going on in the oil and gas finance markets? We’ve got oil prices currently sitting. And you know we’re we’re here live at Nape. So I’m doing everything on my phone here. But oil is trading about 7384 right now. Brant oil about $79. And then the only other thing I saw in the market today was we saw a merger. CRC California Resources Corporation is going to acquire Aera Energy in an all stock transaction valued at about $1.2 billion. On an interesting note, when we get into about who some of the beneficiaries of that is. So we’ll cover all that in the bag of chips, guys. But for Michael Tanner, Stuart Turley, we’re here live at nay. Good to see you in person again. And let’s fire this off. [00:01:41][86.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:42] Hey let’s get ready to rumble here. Total energy is Michael, as we normally call them. Reports lower LNG earnings and sales. And here’s a little bit why on that, Michael, they said Wednesday that the company’s integrated LNG business logged a decline in its adjusted net operating income due to lower prices. So it means their volumes was the same now, compared to the 134 billion in the previous quarter, their net income rose 8%, reflecting the evolutionary crisis. So what has happened was a couple things that are not listed in this article is the lesser amount of natural gas being demanded in Europe because of the killing of the, industries, IT industry, manufacturing, because of low cost energy has been shut down. It’s having a flattening effect on LNG. Yeah. Oh yeah. Second order of magnitude. [00:02:49][66.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:49] Again is what we like to talk about. You know, I mean you give you guys an idea. You know in Europe you’re still we’re still trading at over $14 per MMBtu, which is unbelievable. And what what this article points out is that a that’s a decline of over 31%. I mean, if we were getting those net backs here, everybody be drilling natural gas. We’re sitting in here at the place A deals. You’d see no oil. You’d see only gas prospects. [00:03:13][23.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:14] Oh yeah. At $2. You’re not really getting real high on that. Now, here’s the problem, Michael, is those tankers are not cheap. Those tankers, not at all. And then you got a home owner, and there are record orders for tankers around the world. Asia is going nuts for LNG. Yeah. So, anyway, I, I thought this was a great article. Let’s roll to the next one here, Michael. The true cost and here we go. It is. The true cost of net zero are becoming impossible to hide. You know, it is becoming impossible to hide because the data is now surfacing. They have been hiding the data, Michael, for so long that they’re even manipulating the data in the, article on that. It’s now the hottest summer, hottest year in history. Well, it’s because they’ve manipulated the data in order to do it, and it’s kind of cool finding out how they’re doing it. Now. Britain dumps another net zero. Gimmick. The Wall Street, reports this, they use natural gas to fuel the cabinet size broilers to provide central heating and hot water, forcing them to not electric heat pumps. Electric heat pumps don’t work nearly as efficiently in the U.S.. The British thermal kind of ironic British thermal, that, it does not work nearly as high because you have, either coal or wind and solar and it does not work. So anyway, I thought that was pretty funny. The Windex, I thought this was another one. The Biden win tax. The U.S. manufacturers have yet to stand up to. I’m not going to use the word. All right. Idiotic regulations. This is a quote out of the article. This it? Yeah, yeah, yeah, just hey, Google, this is a quote out of the article. So Biden’s games are unraveling and. And Bloomberg reports a 48% surge in cost. The Rex is much needed. Wind farm power plans 48% cost on that. And so. Oh, hey, everybody, for our folks, watching out there, we have the RT Trevino. We do. He’s the big dog over there at Peco’s Operating. And we love you, Artie. Thanks. Thanks for stopping by, baby. [00:05:41][147.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:42] Absolutely. All right. [00:05:43][1.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:44] Well, and again, the wind farms are even being canceled in new Jersey. And I think it’s a great thing because they’re killing all the right whales up there, and. [00:05:52][8.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:53] Well, it’s going to come back to the East coast. Continues to shoot themselves in the foot. [00:05:58][4.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:59] I think a little higher than that. [00:06:00][0.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:00] And they’re going to end up like we all. We keep saying they’re going back on Russian crew. Don’t you worry. They will end up on Russian crude. [00:06:07][6.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:07] Right? I’m going to have something on that here in just a minute. And I think I might as well just give my $0.02 here. Watch what happens shortly on Tucker Carlson. Tucker Carlson is going to be in. He’s already interviewed Putin. So, you know, hey, we were teasing about this. You know, a my Putin imitation. And when when Tucker Carlson releases that, there is going to be a huge backlash. They’re already trying to ban. I believe you just said that they’re trying to. [00:06:40][32.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:41] But yet the EU is putting a travel ban on him on Tucker Carlson. [00:06:44][3.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:45] Yeah, it’s because it’s. [00:06:46][0.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:46] One that you’ve got. [00:06:46][0.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:47] Right? I don’t blame them because, you know, I’m I’m going to go up to Schwab. You know, Charles Schwab and say, hey, dude, you’re a nut. Now, here’s the thing. What you’re going to find out is, I think that Tucker Carlson is going to go ahead and expose that there was a deal. There was a cease fire between Ukraine and Russia. The Biden administration and the EU. And it. [00:07:15][28.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:15] Yep. They sent Boris Johnson down there to blow the deal up. [00:07:18][2.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:18] Exactly. Now, here’s what’s going to happen. I think that people are going to say Putin’s a bad guy, but he’s not that bad guy. And so energy makes a difference. And I think you’re going to see an opening up within six months of people buying, Russian, say, and that’s not talked about. And I think you heard it here first, Michael. And I’ve got a few other things I’m working on to back that number up with. So anyway, let’s go to the natural gas consumption, establish a new daily record in, in, the US. This is from our buddies over there at the EIA. I think they finally got something right. It’s got to be a, election year. They needed some, some wins. What do you think? [00:08:04][45.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:05] No. They do. And and we touched on this a little bit on yesterday’s show, specifically, with their short term energy outlook, but really baked into those numbers as you show here was an absolute crushing, the natural gas consumption record, the the the largest. I’m trying to find it right here in, you know, on January 16th, 2024, a record high of 141 point 5,000,000,000 cubic feet of natural gas was consumed. And that’s on a per day basis. [00:08:32][26.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:33] Right? [00:08:33][0.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:33] That’s one day per day. [00:08:35][1.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:36] And we’re still down at $2, Mark. [00:08:37][1.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:38] You know, it’s pretty pretty crazy. [00:08:39][0.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:39] I don’t get it. [00:08:40][0.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:40] Well, because you also have to notice that we were we started as we talked a little bit about yesterday, we were about 13% above the five year natural gas storage average. So right as we begin to move below that, five, you know what a five week rolling average or five year, I think it’s a five year rolling average, right? You’re going to see prices, hopefully not settle out a little bit. But I mean, if we look right now, I mean, I mean, we’re we’re $2.96 right now for spot price on natural gas. And you know those net backs you know the WA has got can’t be much better. Yeah. [00:09:12][32.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:13] I had a joke, but HR does not want me to jump in. Yeah, sure. Yeah. Ixnay on the joke. Okay, let’s go to the next one. Analyzing the Mediterranean corridor is provisionally planned. Extension to Elba. Oh. Now, Michael, if we could have the, Mister producer, if you could bring up the map. That map really shows a corridor of pipelines and natural gas coming out of Russia and going through the Ukraine. And here’s where this story is going to end up. And that goes back to my Tucker Carlson story that it is, going to gain precedence again because the war in Ukraine is going to end very soon. Zelensky’s toast. He’s going to be the fall guy for this. But if you can take a look at this map, you can see that net Russian natural gas going right on through down to the Strait of Gibraltar. You know that. That is an absolute gigantic swath through swath. That’s how we say that in Oklahoma. That’s a swath all the way through there of low cost energy. And and so let’s go through some of these numbers here. And it goes through the deputy chair of the Russian Security Council, Dmitri Medvedev, drew global attention to the Mediterranean’s corridor, provisionally planned extension to LV Ovie on his tweet. Let’s see what it says here. It says the point here is that it’s not tracks in the West and, they differ with it’s that the business is a lot more, president than politicians. People want business. They want low cost food and the the farmers all across the EU. My hat’s off to you guys. We love the farmers. No farmers, no food. And I applaud you guys, man. Have you seen the stuff they’re throwing? [00:11:19][125.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:20] Yeah, they’re going crazy. It’s happening. But the hard part is it’s actually tough to find. You can’t Google it. You got to go. You got to go to new source like Energy News beat.com to find out about this stuff. It’s crazy. [00:11:31][11.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:31] It is absolutely nuts. And so let’s go to our last story here. Oil market needs 14 trillion OPEC secretary general. I trust OPEC more than the IEA. the IEA is much like the EIA and not old MacDonald’s farm. They had an E-i-e-i-o. I think okay, global market will require 14 trillion investments over the next 20 years. If oil producing nations hope to be able to fulfill global energy demands through 40, 45, that is really critical, Michael, for a couple reasons. You don’t have to print money in order to get those trillions because there is a return on investment. Now the side effect of this is Blackrock and all of the other ESG funds have now started funding oil and gas. And now they’re also allowing to fund coal. They realize around the world it’s okay to have a transition. And the transition may require a few more years or decades. People are tired. Political people lose their jobs when people don’t have low cost energy. [00:12:52][81.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:53] Michael. No, absolutely. I mean, I think it’s there’s some interesting notes in this article here. They say India’s oil demand is expected to double by 2045, up from 19 million barrels per day to over 38 million barrels per day. And that’s according to Prime Minister Modi. He said, based on this in India is going to be consistently growing its energy. We aim to increase our share of natural gas to 15% of primary energy consumption, up from 6% today. And by 2030, Modi mentions that refining capacity will be up to 100 or 450 Mtpa, which is a big number. [00:13:30][37.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:30] You hit a big, big point. Iran and Iraq are now selling huge amounts of oil. Russia is still selling huge amounts of oil. I believe the number of their increased capacity is I’m going to throw a number at a million barrels per day. Okay. Yes. What’s happening? It’s the Russia oil and the Iraq oil’s coming to India. It’s being refined and going back to Europe as diesel because Europe has hosed it down. So India is smart because their profits that they make, you’ll pay for lower energy costs for Indian. I think it’s phenomenal for them. It’s showing the West their hypocrisy that they have is actually costing the West consumers more. Go figure that one out. [00:14:23][52.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:23] Well it’s as always the consumer’s going to take it in the drive through. But as we agree when OPEC comes out with forecasts we listen. When the IEA comes out with forecasts we go let’s go. [00:14:35][12.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:35] Fact check. [00:14:36][0.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:36] Yeah absolutely. [00:14:37][0.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:38] Do you think that they would ever get banned on Twitter OPEC. [00:14:40][2.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:41] Yeah. No Hamas is still on Twitter. [00:14:44][2.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:44] So wow. Yeah. Wow. okay I’m done. I got nothing on that one. All right. [00:14:53][9.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:53] We’ll go ahead and and flip over to finance. Before we do that guys. We’ll go ahead and pay the bills here. As always, the show is sponsored by the world’s greatest website, EnergyNewsBeat.com The best place for all of your energy and oil and gas news. Steering the team do an outstanding job of making sure that website stays up to speed with everything you need to know to be the tip of. The spear when it comes to the energy business. You can check out the description below in the Five Guys to all the links to the podcast. All of the different, news sources that we went over here. You can find them, read them, skip ad, do all the timestamps, everything you need, email the show [email protected]. Check out our data news combo product dashboard.energynewsbeat.com. The best place for all your data. News combo. Really pushing that hard energy to a lot of cool stuff coming around the corner guys. So just check us out again. www.energynewsbeat.com. Well your record is about 145 so yeah you markets are still open right now. We’ve seen crude oil run a little bit. It’s up to 7383. Main reason for that just mainly has to do with with with what we saw the EIA come out and drop today. And let me go ahead and just pull this up. We did see a larger than average U.S fuel star drop. drop. Remember we were supposed to see about a 500,000 barrel drop according to the EIA. What we went ahead and saw was a 31., or, excuse me, crude oil reserves, were drawn down by 5.5 million barrels. So again the estimate yesterday 500,000 barrel draw. We now see today 5.5 million. And that only brought prices up to $73. We only seen about a percent rise on that. We did see a larger than average U.S gasoline stock pull at about 3.15 million barrels. Compared with analysts estimates about 140,000 barrels, according to our favorite people over at the EIA, distillates fell by 3.2 million barrels compared to the estimate of 1 billion barrels. That’s really what’s happening as we’re talking about prices being buried, we did see. But finally, utilization shrink point a half a percentage point to 8242. And we’re still seeing some of the effects of that deep freeze that happened about two weeks ago, U.S Gulf Coast. We saw about 15% of its refining capacity still be, offline, which is really, bringing down, utilization rates to the lowest level since September 2021. Really during the middle of Covid right there. You know, the only about the only other thing I saw that was really interesting was we did see a, merger this morning, Aera Energy and, Aera Energy goes ahead and gets acquired by CRC resources for a valuation of about $2.1 billion. And one thing I just find interesting, I guess before I get into that, both these companies are California operators, and we’ve talked here on the show at nauseam about how it’s becoming extremely hard to do business in. Yeah, in California, we saw Chevron in their earnings report write down the value of their earnings assets, by over about $5 billion from a write down due to their California stuff. But CRC California resources, the two of the big players out there, it’s an all stock transition. What’s funny is one of the biggest investors and, you know, era energy is, is, is is owned by two specific companies. I cave, which is a large international private equity company, and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Fund, owning a cool 49% of that. So interesting. What’s also interesting is that they took stock. They didn’t take cash. Now this stock gives them more liquidity because you can you you know, you can use that stock as collateral and carrying out loans against it. But it’s interesting that they didn’t go for an all star. They didn’t look for a deal specifically with cash. You know, considering what the Trudeau administration is attempting to do there, which is divest of everything from oil and gas. So it’s clear the Canada pension, but they’re still all for oil and gas. [00:18:43][229.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:44] Oh, yeah. They like money. [00:18:45][1.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:46] Exactly. [00:18:46][0.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:47] You want to survive? Wasn’t that the Terminator? If you want to leave, you come with me. [00:18:52][5.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:52] Yep. Okay. Absolutely. To give you guys an idea. Now, that’s the iccv. They’ve ICDs doing about, 31 billion of net assets. So they’re becoming they’re the 51% owner there. I think the other thing that was interesting to see is here’s the here’s, Bill Rogers, he’s the managing director and global head of sustainable energy. He went he goes ahead and says this, this transaction provides needs to be investments, an excellent opportunity to scale up our investment in California’s energy transition with Eren Energy and CRC, both lean and continue to enable new carbon management solutions, each bringing complementary strengths to the table. So they’ve got to obviously come out and say, no, no, no, no, no, we did this for renewable energy reasons. But let’s be very clear here. It’s high oil and gas is going to continue to rule the day there. [00:19:35][42.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:19:35] Yes. You gotta make money to spend money. [00:19:37][2.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:38] Absolutely. All right. Well we’re live here at Nape. It’s about 145. We’ve had an excellent day here on when we’re recording this Wednesday here. You guys are listening to this on Thursday. We’re getting there. We’re gearing up. We got to be ready to go tomorrow. It’s going to be a busy day. [00:19:49][11.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:19:49] Oh huge day. We’ve still got lots of people to interview today and it is nutty out there today. Stay safe. We’ll see you next time. [00:19:57][8.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:57] Yeah, absolutely. Anything else people should be concerned about. [00:20:00][2.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:01] Watch Tucker’s interview dropping off. And, because the second order of magnitude effects of that single interview. Third and the fourth and the third and the fourth, the Biden. Administration is trying to shut it down. The EU is already trying to shut it down. And what you’re going to hear out of that is that you’re going to see an end. Tucker. And my opinion is going to be able to end the war, because people are going to realize that. Putin I’m not going to say if he’s a good guy or not. He’s not as bad as he was because of the child trafficking that is becoming documented. The 30 plus weapons labs that the US had in Ukraine. Ukraine is a crime sim and I’m glad it’s finally coming to light. [00:20:52][51.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:52] Yeah. No. [00:20:53][0.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:53] Let’s end that, crime scene. [00:20:56][2.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:57] Yeah. No, it’s going to be very interesting to see what Tucker comes out of. That’s kind of the talk of the town right now. But with that, guys, we appreciate you checking us out. Have a great week. You will see our weekly recap drop on Friday. Or excuse me, we got interviews drop in Friday. Weekly hit caps coming on Saturday right. [00:21:10][13.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:21:11] We have lots of interviews. [00:21:12][1.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:21:12] You guys are about to be inundated with interviews, so get ready for all the people. We saw George Bush this morning who’s running for Texas Attorney general? We we talked with the TCU energy, administrators. Right. We’ve got just a host of other subjects. [00:21:24][11.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:21:25] And regions coming up. And then. Yeah, I mean, he is one cool cat. [00:21:29][3.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:21:29] Absolutely. Car Ingram everybody was here. So it’s going to be awesome. But with that guys we’ll let you go for Stuart Turley I’m Michael Tanner. We’ll see you next week guys. [00:21:29][0.0][1245.9]

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The post Daily Energy Standup Episode #304 – Lower Earnings, Record Consumption, and Geopolitical Shifts appeared first on Energy News Beat.

Energy News Beat

Energy poverty is real. But it can be cured. Sit back and enjoy a conversation with one of the world’s leading experts in ending energy poverty. NJ Ayuk is the executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber, and he is a phenomenal author and industry-leading expert on a mission to eliminate energy poverty.

I had an absolute blast, and Cyrus Brooks, RBAC, was on the panel. His passion and energy experience is phenomenal. NJ, Cyrus, and I covered the key issues in Africa but only scratched the surface of some of the solutions.

The West has not always had Africa’s best interest at heart, and it is time for Africa to put Africa first. If done correctly, the West could have great new markets for goods and services. Africa could get the manufacturing and technical knowledge transfer while shipping completed goods rather than just raw materials.

Check out NJ’s book A Just Transition: Making Energy Poverty History with an Energy Mix. It is a fantastic book about his mission leading the African Energy Chamber.

Thank you, NJ and Cyrus, for your time and industry leadership. I am looking forward to our future conversations about the problems and solutions of ending energy poverty.

Follow and connect with NJ on his LinkedIn HERE: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nj-ayuk-jd-mba-6658662/

Follow up with Cyrus on his LinkedIn HERE: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cyrus-brooks-03274713/

Energy News Beat Podcasts: https://energynewsbeat.co/industry-insights-2/

Highlights of the Podcast

02:25 – The whole idea behind the energy industry

04:07 – Energy poverty

08:02 – The geopolitical problems with the Red Sea

08:27 – The love for free markets

12:09 – African oil and gas producers should seek to maximize their own capacities

13:06 – Where they refine their crude oil

14:22 – The power of natural gas

20:53 – One of the biggest acquisitions that happened in t

The post ENB #183 Elevating Humanity: A Conversation on Ending Energy Poverty with NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber appeared first on Energy News Beat.

Energy News Beat

The case can be made that the Mediterranean Corridor’s provisionally planned extension to Lvov is a pilot project that doesn’t presage the bloc’s intent to prepare for relocating the Ukrainian capital to there like Medvedev predicted on Twitter.

Deputy Chair of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev drew global attention to the Mediterranean Corridor’s provisionally planned extension to Lvov in his tweet on Monday, which speculated that this will presage the creation of a rump Ukraine with its capital in that western city. The EU reportedly agreed to finance this rail project up until that city instead of to Kiev, including through the construction of European-compataible gauge tracks, thus giving rise to rumors of their intent.

Medvedev wryly concluded his tweet by writing that “the point here is not that the tracks in the West and Malorossiya differ in width. It’s just that business is a lot more prescient than politicians”, but the argument can just as plausibly be made that business is also more averse to political risks. It might not be that they don’t expect Kiev to remain the capital of Ukraine, which former Pentagon official Stephen Bryen reported last month could be moved to Lvov, but that this expansion is simply a pilot project.

To explain, while that corridor would nevertheless complement Lvov’s political role in the abovementioned scenario, it could very well be that Brussels feels more comfortable seeing how quickly it could be built and how profitable it’ll be for everyone before committing to extending it to Kiev. After all, it’s already unprecedented enough that the EU reportedly reached a provisional agreement to finance this route’s extension into a non-member state, so it makes sense that they’d play it cautiously.

Ukraine is still a warzone too and a lot of the bombing that Russia has carried out against military targets over this time has been in the regions east of the erstwhile Austrian-Hungarian Empire’s former lands. Committing a massive amount of funds for building a railway closer towards the areas that have been directly affected by this ongoing conflict, especially the capital itself, could rightly be criticized by some European Parliamentarians as a reckless gamble that risks wasting resources on a “white elephant”.

Proceeding cautiously by approving a pilot project for extending this corridor to Lvov, however, could reduce resistance to this initiative and possibly prove its viability, some years after which it could then be extended to Kiev once the conflict inevitably ends. The intent is almost certainly not what Medvedev assessed it to be even if it ultimately serves that role in the scenario that Bryen reported since the North Sea-Baltic Corridor would have been prioritized over the Mediterranean one in that case.

This project connects the Low Countries with Germany, Poland, and the Baltics, and the summer 2022 proposal for extending it into Ukraine could have been approved instead if the bloc envisaged it playing the aforesaid role in a much smaller rump state than the one at present. As a case in point, Poland is already slyly taking control of Western Ukraine through economic means, and the return of German-backed Donald Tusk to the premiership could see Ukraine’s wealth siphoned to Berlin via Warsaw.

Poland just subordinated itself to German hegemony by agreeing to the partial implementation of the “miliary Schengen” for optimizing the movement of troops and equipment between those two and the Netherlands in what’ll be the first time since World War II that Germany has been able to do so. One-third of a year ago, Poland’s former government also accused Germany of cutting a deal with Ukraine behind its back, so the stage is set for Germany to expand its economic influence there.

Prior to the recent report about the EU’s provisional agreement to fund the Mediterranean Corridor’s extension to Lvov, one could have therefore predicted that they’d fund the North Sea-Baltic one’s instead, but that didn’t happen despite it making the most sense for the bloc’s de facto German leader. It’s unclear what accounts for this inexplicable decision, but it nevertheless serves as a powerful counterpoint to Medvedev’s assessment of the EU’s grand strategic intentions in this case.

Putting everything the together, the case can thus compellingly be made that the Mediterranean Corridor’s provisionally planned extension to Lvov is a pilot project that doesn’t presage the bloc’s intent to prepare for relocating the Ukrainian capital to there, even though this scenario could still transpire. Medvedev’s take wasn’t wrong per se since there’s a cogent logic behind what he wrote, but considering the facts that were shared in this piece, it appears to be more akin to wishful thinking than anything else.

Source: Korybko.substack.com

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The post Analyzing The Mediterranean Corridor’s Provisionally Planned Extension To Lvov appeared first on Energy News Beat.

Energy News Beat

Britain Boiler Tax Scandal

In the latest green fiasco, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak created a quota system that would require manufacturers to sell more heat pumps to households.

Instead of meekly complying with the regulation as happens with Biden administration EPA announcements, manufacturers let consumers know they would have to pay up whether they installed the heat pumps or not.

Manufacturers correctly dubbed the scheme a “boiler tax” and consumer outrage killed the regulation.

Britain Dumps Another Net-Zero Gimmick

The Wall Street Journal reports Britain Dumps Another Net-Zero Gimmick

Most English households use natural gas to fuel the cabinet-sized boilers that provide central heating and hot water, and forcing them to adopt electric heat pumps (ultimately powered by renewable energy) is part of the government’s net-zero agenda.

An earlier proposal to ban gas-boiler sales after 2035 proved politically toxic as households balked at the cost of replacing their reliable natural-gas boilers with more expensive, untested heat pumps. So politicians resorted to subterfuge, imposing a sales quota on manufacturers. Starting in April, heat pumps would have to replace 4% of annual boiler sales or companies would pay a £3,000 fine for each “excess” natural-gas boiler they sold.

Worcester Bosch, Britain’s leading manufacturer, warned last year that the proposed quota would add up to £300 ($376) to the cost of natural-gas boilers, which retail for £1,000 and up.

A novelty is that industry fought back against the mandate. Manufacturers were transparent about passing the cost of the heat-pump fines to consumers, calling it a “boiler tax.” Mr. Sunak’s government tried to blame the companies for anticompetitive behavior. But when voters realized they’d be stuck paying for heat pumps even if they didn’t buy them, it was game over for the rule.

Biden’s Wind Tax

In the US, manufacturers have yet to stand up to idiotic Biden regulations, mostly because they have received tax incentives that hide the true costs.

But the actual costs are difficult to hide now that subsidies won’t hide the true cost. So Biden’s schemes are unraveling.

Bloomberg reports a 48% Surge in Costs Wrecks Biden’s Much-Lauded Wind-Power Plans

When President Joe Biden in 2021 laid out a target of deploying 30 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity during the next nine years, the plan was deemed bold and ambitious. Best of all, many saw it as within reach.

Two years later, the industry has another word for it: impossible.

After a cascading series of setbacks, from sobering cost revisions to billions in possible impairment charges, the US offshore wind industry’s 2030 generation goal now looks further away than ever.

Cancelled in New Jersey

Offshore wind is stumbling over costs. EnergyWire asks Can Biden Save the Industry?

The Biden administration is facing increasing pressure to take action to bolster the offshore wind industry after a major project was canceled in New Jersey on Tuesday, although options appear limited to ease financial hurdles facing developers.

Developers are taking billion-dollar losses due to the industry’s exploding costs and the dropping value of assets. Two companies in Massachusetts walked away from deals that they said did not cover costs. New York regulators rebuffed attempts to renegotiate contracts with wind companies for higher prices, casting uncertainty over the future of several wind farms off the state’s coast. Meanwhile, the supply chain of businesses to support offshore wind construction has expanded too slowly to meet the needs of proposals.

But the starkest sign of a troubled sector came Tuesday, when Ørsted, the largest offshore wind developer in the U.S. market, said it will abandon its Ocean Wind project. The two-phased wind array off the Jersey coast was one of just five major offshore wind projects approved in the U.S. — all by the Biden administration. Along with creating more uncertainty for the industry, the cancellation is raising speculation over whether other projects will follow.

Defending the administration’s record, White House spokesperson Michael Kikukawa said Biden has “used every available tool to advance the growing American offshore wind industry.”

Outright Lies Are Biden’s Biggest Tool

Without a doubt, Biden has “used every available tool to advance the growing American offshore wind industry.”

His biggest tool is a pack of lies starting with a claim that these projects are cheaper and will pay for themselves.

Downgrades and Write Offs

Fitch Ratings downgraded Eversource Energy and its NSTAR Electric utility subsidiary from stable to negative, partly on the grounds that the company may struggle to unload three offshore wind projects it had wanted to sell.
Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath, BP’s head of gas and low-carbon energy, told attendees at a London conference that the U.S. offshore wind sector was “fundamentally broken” and in need of a reset.
BP has taken a pretax impairment charge — a devaluing of an asset — of $540 million due to its New York offshore wind projects.
Norwegian oil and gas giant Equinor said last month it was taking a $300 million impairment in its U.S. offshore wind portfolio. Ørsted could take a $5 billion hit.

Even with massive subsidies, these projects are not economical. All they do is replace one form of energy with another at increasing costs that must be born by someone.

Let’s accurately label this fiasco for what it really is: A mandate to use wind, then a wind tax to support it.

Biden Backs Off Gas Stove Crackdown

Fox News reports Biden Backs Off Gas Stove Crackdown After Widespread Pushback

On Feb. 1, 2023, the DOE issued its original proposal which was set to take effect in 2027 and impact a staggering 50% of current gas stove models. The DOE argued it is required to put forth such regulations under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act which mandates energy efficiency rules while not harming consumer choice.

In response, Republicans and consumer advocacy organizations blasted the Biden administration for curbing consumer choice and pushing a regulatory regime that would lead to higher prices. They also criticized the DOE for attempting to force Americans to electrify their homes in an effort to reduce emissions and fight global warming.

“President Biden is committed to using all the tools at the Administration’s disposal to lower costs for American families and deliver healthier communities — including energy efficiency measures like the one announced today,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement [after the administration backed off the proposal].

Gas Stove Tax

Let’s label the Biden administration proposal for what it really is, a tax on gas stoves.

Biden then had the audacity to brag about lowering costs when he backed off the proposal.

Tax This, Tax That, Tax Everything

Up and down the line, we need to label the green regulations and mandates from this administration for what they really are: Across the board tax hikes.

And since these these taxes apply to everyone, not just the wealthy, they are very regressive in nature.

We have wind taxes, heat pump taxes, gasoline taxes, stove taxes, air conditioner taxes, internal combustion engine taxes, etc., all of which are mislabeled in ways to sound like they are positive things.

Cap-and-trade is nothing but a giant tax scheme in which manufacturers have to pass on the costs.

Industry is fighting back in the UK and farmers are fighting back in the EU. Republicans need to carry the regressive tax hike message into the upcoming US election.

Inflation Pressures Everywhere

Please note that all of these mandates purposely increase costs. They are all inflationary.

Nearly everything this administration does is inflationary. The same applies to every regulation in California.

Minimum Wage Hikes

On February 4, I noted Cost of Running a McDonalds Jumps $250,000 in CA Due to Minimum Wage Hikes

Impact on Joe’s Grill and Susie’s Diner

Don’t think for one second that these wage hike only hit wealthy franchise owners. For starters, many franchise owners are deep in debt to buy that franchise.

In addition, how are Joe and Susie going to get help at $16 when McDonalds is paying $20?

The answer is they won’t. Effectively, $20 is the new minimum wage in California, and not just restaurants.

Big Explosion of Government and Social Assistance Jobs

President Biden is bragging about job growth in 2023. But he doesn’t say where those jobs are.

Data from the BLS, chart and calculations by Mish.

Data from the BLS, chart and calculations by Mish.

On February 5, I noted a Big Explosion of Government and Social Assistance Jobs in 2023 to Help Migrants

A surge in immigration led to a surge in need for government and social assistance jobs at taxpayer expense. City and local governments are under financial strain.

Under Bidenomics policy, we have created hundreds of thousands of jobs that are of net negative benefit to US taxpayers. That’s what Biden is really bragging about.

Fed Chairman Tells 60 Minutes US Fiscal Path is Unsustainable

Fed Chair Jerome Powell tells 60 Minutes that it’s “urgent” the US address its “Unsustainable Fiscal Path”

Please consider Fed Chairman Tells 60 Minutes US Fiscal Path is Unsustainable

The Fed normally does not comment on fiscal policy, but Powell did. “Debt is growing faster than the economy. So, it is unsustainable. … You could say that it was urgent,” said Powell.

I list 15 key takeaways from the interview. Click on the above link for discussion.

It’s not just Democrats causing this problem. Republicans are in on the fiscal madness. For example, please see 169 Republicans Vote to Expand Welfare, Bill Heads to Senate

Inflationary Tariffs

Also consider Help for the Heartland? Trump Tariffs Failed the Mission

Since tariffs are a tax on consumers, Trump is proposing a huge tax hike. Biden is on fully on board.

China will retaliate and so will Europe. Costs will soar across the board. More inflation is on deck. Irony abounds. How can tariffs help both candidates?

Is Inflation Transitory?

Biden is bragging inflation is coming down. Economists have fully embraced the softest of softy landing. And Powell told 60 Minutes he thinks inflation is transitory.

I keep asking: Is inflation transitory or is this recent decline in the rate of inflation what’s transitory?

To help decide, please check out some of the links above.

Then factor in Biden’s regulations, the end of just in time manufacturing, a surge in immigration, and trade wars with China no matter who wins the election.

Source: Zerohedge.com

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The global oil market will require $14 trillion in investments over the next 20 years if oil-producing nations hope to be able to fulfill global energy demands through 2045, OPEC’s Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said on Tuesday.

According to the Secretary-General who spoke at India Energy Week in Goa, oil demand “will continue to rise and there is a need to ensure that supply is maintained.”

Al-Gais added that globally, energy demand would rise between now and 2045 by 23 percent.

India’s oil demand is expected to double by 2045 to 38 million bpd from its current 19 million bpd, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said early at the event. “India’s oil demand is expected to increase to 38 million barrels per day by 2045 from the current 19 million barrels. India is consistently growing its energy capacity. We aim to increase the share of natural gas to 15% of primary energy missfrom 6 % now. By 2030, the refining capacity will be at 450 mtpa in India,” Modi said.

Al-Ghais was also vocal about oil’s place among the energy sources even as far out as 2045, saying that even as many nations around the world look to triple their renewable energy capacity, no single renewable source will be able to carry the weight of the global energy demand growth.

“We need to invest (in oil) to be able to ensure the security and reliability of the supply is maintained,” Ghais said. Energy ministers from oil-booming Guyana and natural gas-abundant Qatar have said that while there is a need to bring renewable energies into the oil and gas sector, phasing out conventional energy sources such as fossil fuels is still a long way away.

Source: Oilprice.com

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State-owned LNG giant QatarEnergy has signed a long-term contract with India’s largest LNG importer Petronet LNG.

Under the 20-year sales and purchase agreement, Petronet will buy around 7.5 mtpa of LNG from QatarEnergy.

Petronet said in a statement on Tuesday that this deal is pursuant to extension of an existing LNG SPA for supply of around 7.5 mtpa of LNG on FOB basis, signed in July 1999 for supplies until 2028.

This deal was followed in 2015 by another agreement for the supply of an additional 1 mtpa of LNG, raising the total annual long-term volumes contracted between the two sides to 8.5 mtpa.

Under the new agreement, LNG supplies will be made on delivered (DES) basis starting from 2028 until 2048.

Similar to the earlier agreement, India’s largest gas utility GAIL will offtake 60 percent of the volumes under the new SPA, while Indian Oil will offtake 30 percent, and Bharat Petroleum will offtake 10 percent of the volumes after regasification primarily from Petronet’s Dahej terminal on substantially back to back basis, it said.

GAIL, ONGC, IOCL, and BPCL each hold 12.5 percent of equity in Petronet.

Petronet said the SPA will ensure energy security of India and assure continued supplies of regasified LNG to major consuming sectors like fertilizers, CGD, refineries and petchem, power, and other industries.

Akshay Kumar Singh, Petronet’s MD and CEO, said the existing long-term agreement between the two firms today accounts for around 35 percent of India’s LNG imports.

He said renewal of this agreement will help India become a gas-based economy and increase share of natural gas in India’s primary energy basket to 15 percent by year 2030.

Petronet did not provide the pricing details of the contract.

Several reports suggest that Petronet secured a better price compared to the previous contract.

The new deal could be priced at a slope of 12 percent of the current Brent crude oil futures prices, the reports said.

QatarEnergy said in a separate statement later on Tuesday that the contracted LNG volumes from Qatar will be delivered ex-ship to terminals across India onboard QatarEnergy’s vast LNG fleet starting May 2028.

The LNG giant is significantly increasing its LNG production from the North Field.

The first phase of the North Field expansion project will increase Qatar’s LNG production capacity from 77 to 110 Mtpa, while the second phase will further boost capacity to 126 Mtpa.

QatarEnergy recently signed a 15-year deal with US FSRU player Excelerate Energy to supply Bangladesh with LNG.

This Excelerate deal is the first LNG SPA the firm announced this year after signing huge contracts in 2023.

These large deals include 27-year SPAs with China’s Sinopec, Eni, Shell, and TotalEnergies.

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Energy News Beat

On January 16, 2024, a record high of 141.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas was consumed in the U.S. Lower 48 states (L48), exceeding the previous record set on December 23, 2022, according to estimates from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Well-below-normal temperatures caused by a large mass of arctic air that covered most of the continental United States increased demand of natural gas used for residential and commercial space heating and for electric power generation. Both consumption of natural gas and withdrawals from underground storage increased to record volumes because of the higher demand.

Natural gas consumption in the L48 averaged above 130.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) from January 14 through January 21, 2024, as arctic air pushed south into the United States, causing temperatures to fall. Extreme wind chills, freezing rain, and snowy conditions persisted from the Pacific Northwest into Texas and across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Residential and commercial natural gas consumption accounted for almost 49% of L48 consumption during that period, up from 42% during the start of January, as homes and commercial buildings used more natural gas for heating. Electricity generation also increased during that time, with natural gas-fired and coal-fired electricity generation increasing to meet increased demand.

Natural gas was also withdrawn from underground storage at close to record volumes to meet the increased heating and electricity consumption during the cold snap. Weekly net withdrawals of natural gas from underground storage in the L48 for the week of Saturday, January 13, through Friday, January 19, totaled 326 Bcf, the third-most for any week on record, according to our Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.

This large natural gas storage withdrawal helped offset reduced U.S. natural gas production. Some of the decline in natural gas production was likely a result of freeze-offs—which occur when water and other liquids in the raw natural gas stream freeze at the wellhead or in gathering lines near production—as well as other issues caused by the cold weather. U.S. dry natural gas production, which had been averaging close to 104.0 Bcf/d in the beginning of January, declined about 10.0 Bcf/d to close to 94.0 Bcf/d over the week of January 13, according to estimates from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Principal contributors: Max Ober, Andrew Iraola

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It’s called the “solar coaster:” The ups and downs the industry faces as solar-friendly policies ebb and flow. And in North Carolina, rooftop installers are in the middle of one wild ride.

On the heels of cutting bill credits for residential solar panels in October, Duke Energy is now poised to offer new rebates for rooftop arrays that are paired with batteries. Combined with federal incentives, the new “PowerPair” rebates could cut the cost of solar and battery systems in half and inject new interest in rooftop solar, which many installers say waned last fall.

“We definitely saw a dip,” said Doug Ager, the CEO and co-founder of Sugar Hollow Solar, describing his company’s business in the last quarter of 2023. But at least in the short-term, he said, “PowerPair will change all that.”

Approved to roll out in May, the pilot program will initially serve only an estimated 6,000 to 7,000 households. But proponents say it could pave the way for a new paradigm in which Duke invests in and manages distributed renewable energy and storage the same way it might a traditional power plant.

“It’s opening the door to active load management from Duke that is going to be increasingly important,” said David Neal, the senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center who helped negotiate the program. Heralding the pilot as one of the first of its kind, he said, “it’s going to be a lot more cost effective than just building new generation to meet expected loads.”

Ultimately, advocates are also hopeful that the solar coaster can be smoothed out a little.

“The rooftop solar industry really has experienced quite a bit of ups and downs,” said Matt Abele, executive director of the North Carolina Sustainable Energy Association, which also helped devise the rebates. There’s still the question of what long-term strategies would support installers, he said. “But I would say this is not an insignificant program in the interim.”

Greenlit by regulators last month, the rebates grew out of a years-long dispute between Duke Energy, advocates, and the solar industry about how rooftop solar owners should be compensated for the electricity they produce.

About 40,000 rooftops across the state boast solar arrays, the bulk of them on homes and in Duke territory. The figure accounts for a tiny fraction of North Carolina’s roughly 5 million housing units.

Despite these small numbers, Duke, like other investor-owned utilities around the country, has long sought to lower the state’s one-to-one net metering credit, which it says unfairly burdens both the company and customers that don’t have solar panels.

Solar installers and advocates contend that rooftop arrays provide more benefits than costs, including cleaner air, fewer electrons lost in transmission, and reduced need for electricity from centralized fossil fuel power plants. Their assertion is backed up by most independent studies of rooftop solar, a 2019 analysis found.

Still, a pair of state laws, both heavily influenced by Duke, mandate a change to the current net metering scheme by 2027. To avoid the bruising battles and excessive fees on solar customers seen in California and elsewhere, some of the state’s leading clean energy advocates and solar installers forged a complicated truce with the utility.

The crux of the agreement is a move toward “time of use” billing. New residential solar owners are charged and rewarded more for electrons they add to or subtract from the grid during peak demand hours of 6 to 9 p.m. in the summer and 6 to 9 a.m. in the winter. On a monthly basis, any net solar electrons added to the grid are credited at the “avoided cost” rate — akin to a wholesale rate and currently about 3.4 cents per kilowatt hour.

Diligent solar owners can squeeze benefits out of this complex billing scheme, some installers say. But to ease the transition, they also negotiated a simpler, lower-risk “bridge rate” with Duke, in which solar customers enrolling before 2027 get a monthly credit at the wholesale rate for any electrons they add to the grid.

Regulators on the utilities commission accepted these compromises last March and ultimately ordered new rates to begin October 1. But they rejected another component of the deal, which would have given customers with electric heat an extra rebate for enrolling in Duke’s smart thermostat program, in which the utility can make temperature adjustments from afar.

“Instead, the Commission directs Duke to develop a pilot program,” their order read, “to evaluate operational impacts to the electric system, if any, of behind the meter residential solar plus energy storage.”

PowerPair is the result. “This program was in many ways a result of our negotiations around net metering,” Dave Hollister, the president of Sundance Power Systems, said over email.

Devised after months of conversations between Duke, solar installers, clean energy advocates, and others, the new rebates would be based on the size of the solar array and battery and capped at $3,600 and $5,400 respectively. Combined with a 30% federal tax credit, the cash back could cut the cost of an average $40,500 system down to less than $20,000.

For customers, the deal is “actually really, really good in terms of the economics,” one installer said. And for Duke, the rebates could prove a low-cost strategy for smoothing out spikes in demand and strengthening the resilience of the grid.

“Cost effective and dispatchable customer-sited resources are key components of our clean energy transition,” Lon Huber, a senior vice president at Duke, said in an email. “We are committed to expanding the scope and adding ways for our customers to deploy grid beneficial technology.”

Customers will be divided into two equal cohorts. Those subscribed to the simpler bridge will allow the utility to remotely control their battery up to 18 times a year and will earn an extra $37 a month on average. Enrollees in the more complicated time-of-use rate plan, on the other hand, won’t get monthly incentives but would have control of their batteries.

“It will be interesting to see how many folks will allow Duke to control their battery and who wants to have that freedom and independence to manage their customer-generated electricity themselves,” Hollister said. “ We deal with so many folks who are looking for self-reliance and the idea of ‘smart grid’ is somewhat of a third rail for them.”

Already, batteries are popular options for rooftop solar customers. Installers say between a quarter and 40% of their clients were already choosing them for a variety of reasons, from a desire to save money to a quest for energy security in the face of outages.

Sugar Hollow Solar’s Ager said residential storage fits with the western North Carolina vibe. “Being in the mountains,” he said, “people just want batteries.”

With the PowerPair, the percentage of solar arrays paired with storage will undoubtedly rise, and many installers predicted it would double.

“I fully anticipate us selling tons of systems with batteries,” said Brandon Pendry, communications and outreach specialist with Southern Energy Management, one of the state’s oldest installers and a negotiator for both the bridge rate and the PowerPair scheme.

To avoid the problem installers and their clients faced with the last round of rooftop solar rebates — when demand far exceeded supply each year and available grants disappeared in minutes — the architects of the program gave it an overall cap of 60,000 kilowatts but no annual limits. That way, rooftop solar and battery owners can get the rebates on a rolling basis.

“In this case, there is only one capacity and it’s not time dependent,” said Pendry. “It’s just: when it runs out, it runs out.”

If customers choose the maximum allowable size of a 10 kilowatt solar array, a total of 6,000 households could benefit. But no one really knows when the capacity will be reached, with some predicting 18 months from May and others estimating as few as four.

Duke projects it will connect 11,400 residential rooftop systems this year. But a spokesperson said it was simply too early to tell when PowerPair rebates would dry up.

Once they do, the hope is that data gathered during the pilot will inform whatever comes next.

“It may possibly be a win-win for everyone,” Hollister said, “especially if it can be extended or transformed into a more permanent program.”

Since half of the PowerPair cohorts will be using the bridge rate, there’s some chance a permanent program would extend that rate’s life — a key priority for some in the industry.

No matter what, while most installers contacted for this article eagerly await the pilot, they’re also clear-eyed about their business plan for the future.

“We have been installing solar in [the state] for over a decade and have certainly seen lots of incentives come and go, said Jesse Solomon, vice president and director of sales for N.C Solar Now, in an email. “But we have always been able to design the investment to make sense for our clients.”

Solar installers also focus on the overall trends buoying their industry: Fossil fuels are becoming more expensive, while the materials designed to harness and store forever-free sunlight are getting cheaper.

Every year Duke raises rates, said Pendry of Southern Energy Management, “solar becomes a better and better investment.”

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