Work progresses on NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG export plant in Texas

Energy News Beat

US LNG firm NextDecade is moving forward with construction work on the first phase of its Rio Grande LNG export terminal in Texas.

In July last year, NextDecade took the final investment decision on the first three trains of its Rio Grande LNG project on the north embankment of the Brownsville Ship Channel in Cameron County, and completed $18.4 billion project financing.

The firm also closed a joint venture agreement for the first phase which included about $5.9 billion of financial commitments from Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), GIC, Mubadala, and TotalEnergies.

NextDecade also expects to take a final investment decision to build the fourth liquefaction train in the second half of 2024.

Phase 1, with nameplate liquefaction capacity of 17.6 mtpa, has 16.2 mtpa of long-term binding LNG sale and purchase agreements.

These include deals with TotalEnergies, Shell, ENN, Engie, ExxonMobil, Guangdong Energy Group, China Gas Hongda Energy Trading, Galp, and Itochu.

NextDecade awarded the $12 billion EPC contract to compatriot Bechtel and it officially kicked of work on the plant in October last year.

LNG tanks 1 & 2 area (Image: NextDecade)

According to Rio Grande LNG’s latest construction report sent to the US FERC, ongoing activities during the period of March 1-15, 2024 included soil stabilization via the deep mixing method in train 1 area, alongside essential site civil activities such as concrete foundation work and construction of the material offloading facility.

Simultaneously, work continued on building and improvement of onsite laydown yards and work pads to support construction; arrangement of temporary facilities; assembling of the CMT office complexes, and improving pedestrian walkways within the construction areas and temporary utilities.

Construction of the facility perimeter levee along the shoreline, and northern and eastern edges of the site, as well as improvements in temporary drainage and onsite construction roads progressed throughout this reporting period.

Also, the project continued the production pile-driving program for the LNG tank and pipe rack structures, excavation and foundation work for the LNG tanks 1 & 2 tower cranes, activities for shoreline protection, the installation of underground fire water piping, and the installation of underground feed gas and instrument air piping at road crossings.

Rio Grande LNG said that the project started installation of LNG berth 1 breasting dolphin template piles, and it maintained continuous monitoring of existing erosion control devices.

Throughout the remainder of March, Rio Grande will continue the ongoing work, it added.

Source: Lngprime.com

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Exxon Mobil Ahead of Schedule in Doubling LNG Portfolio, Executive Says

Energy News Beat

(Reuters) — Exxon Mobil is ahead of schedule with its plan to double the size of its LNG portfolio to 40 million tons per annum (mtpa) by 2030 and will focus on selling its own gas rather than trading that of third parties, the company’s LNG chief said on Thursday.

Exxon is revamping its LNG trading strategy amid growing production of the fuel and as part of a wider corporate reorganization that began in 2022.

The oil major is relatively small in LNG trading compared to TotalEnergies and Shell. Shell is one of the industry leaders and made $2.4 billion from trading LNG in the fourth quarter 2023.

Unlike Shell and Total, Exxon plans to mainly trade its own gas, said Peter Clarke, Exxon senior vice president for global LNG.

“Our portfolio is never going to look like Shell’s, it’s not going to look like Total’s, we are targeting different aspects of the value chain,” he told Reuters in an interview.

Exxon said in 2020 it planned to double its LNG portfolio to 40 mtpa by decade-year, from 20 mtpa. It is now producing just short of 30 mtpa, he said.

“We are well on track to achieve the objective we set ourselves back in 2020,” Clarke said. “And we are slightly ahead of that.”

While Exxon could widen its trading portfolio by purchasing and marketing LNG from third parties, Clarke said, it considers margins in that business are small compared to the profits it can make on its own natural gas.

For Exxon, there is more value in producing, liquefying and selling gas, he said. Long-term contracts still account for about 80% of the global LNG trade, he said.

“The big component in LNG is obviously the commercialization of the LNG itself,” Clarke said. “We want to have the leading LNG portfolio in the world in terms of its financial robustness and financial returns. I would say we’re well on the way to doing it.”

Exxon’s volumes will increase through the Golden Pass LNG project, where it has a 30% stake with QatarEnergies as a partner. That project has an estimated export capacity of around 18 mtpa and will produce its first LNG in 2025.

The company has said it expects to make a final investment decision for its PNG Papua LNG project in Papua New Guinea this year and begin engineering and design for a Mozambique project by year end.

Clarke said the projects would help Exxon supply clients in Asia, where the company sees the most potential growth.

“The market is expanding. And by 2050, 75% of global energy demand will be in Asia Pacific, so we are really focused in that area.”

Source: Pgjonline.com

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The post Exxon Mobil Ahead of Schedule in Doubling LNG Portfolio, Executive Says first appeared on Energy News Beat.

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PetroChina Books Record Profit as Natural Gas and Fuel Demand Soar

Energy News Beat

A rebound in Chinese natural gas demand and rising fuel sales pushed the earnings of state oil and gas giant PetroChina to a record high in 2023, despite the drop in international oil and gas prices.

PetroChina reported on Monday a net income of $22.3 billion (161 billion Chinese yuan) for 2023, up by 8.3% on the year, thanks to recovering domestic consumption of refined petroleum products and a surge in natural gas demand.

Last year, Chinese natural gas and LNG demand rebounded from 2022, when the world’s top LNG importer was still under COVID-related lockdowns that were weighing on household and business consumption of all energy products.

Total revenues for PetroChina, however, slumped by 7% in 2023 compared to 2022, amid lower international oil and gas prices, which affected the upstream earnings. But in terms of company net profit, the downstream business more than offset the impact of the weaker oil and gas prices.

In 2023, PetroChina’s refining and chemicals business took advantage of the domestic market recovery and boosted processing capacity, the state major said in a statement. The volumes of processed crude jumped by 15.3% year-over-year. Jet fuel output soared by 77.7%, gasoline production rose by 14.4%, and diesel output increased by 8.9%. Sales of all petroleum products except diesel jumped by double-digit numbers in 2023 compared to 2022.

PetroChina’s natural gas sales in China rose by 6.1% year-on-year, while the operating profit from the natural gas business tripled.

“Under the strict implementation of national price policies, the Group adhered to market-oriented and specialized marketing, actively explored high-end and high-profitability markets, fully utilized the function of value discovery through online trading, strived to increase sales volume and profit,” PetroChina said.

While PetroChina managed to offset weaker oil prices with higher product and natural gas sales, another Chinese state-held oil and gas giant, CNOOC, saw its net profit for 2023 slip by 12.6% from a record-high level in 2022, due to the decline in international oil prices.

Source: Oilprice.com

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The post PetroChina Books Record Profit as Natural Gas and Fuel Demand Soar first appeared on Energy News Beat.

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The world’s semiconductor industry hinges on a single quartz factory in North Carolina

Energy News Beat

A Wharton professor who studies AI, innovation, and start-ups dramatically claims that “the modern economy rests on a single road in Spruce Pine, North Carolina.” Ethan Mollick explains that this unremarkable road leads to a Sibelco North America Inc. facility where ultra-high-purity quartz is mined. This location is vitally important as it is claimed to be “the sole supplier of the quartz required to make the crucibles needed to refine silicon wafers.”

Regular readers will be well aware of several vital companies and locations that sustain the semiconductor industry as we know it. We have published numerous articles about Intel, TSMC, ASML, Samsung, and other companies. Moreover, locations such as Silicon Valley, Hsinchu Science Park, Bengaluru, and the Shenzhen SEZ have become household names due to their tech hub status. Put into this perspective, the remarkable nature of Spruce Pine is all the more eyebrow-raising.

Mollick provides an excerpt from Conway’s Material World, which discusses the probable “end of computer chip manufacture as we know it,” should something untoward happen at Spruce Pine or in the skies above it.

For further insight into why the Spruce Pine location is so unique, the official Sibelco pages do a pretty good job of encapsulating the story of this particular mine. It is the world’s leading high-purity quartz (HPQ) provider, and the firm claims it produces “the world’s highest quality quartz” at this mine.

Geologically speaking, the uniquely pure minerals at Spruce Mine were created about 380 million years ago when Africa collided with North America. This momentous collision, however slow, caused intense friction and heat miles below the Earth’s surface. According to Sibelco, the Spruce Mine minerals were created by a rich mineral-forming liquid that cooled and crystallized over time. A standout feature of these minerals is that they were made in their purest forms due to a lack of water, which caused all the friction.

In more recent history, it is claimed that the Spruce Pine site has been mined for centuries, with Native American peoples known to have mined Mica. In addition to Mica and the headlining HPQ, the mine is a rich source of kaolin and feldspar.

Spruce pine-sourced minerals were first used for electronics by Thomas Edison, who used Mica as an insulator in some of his inventions as far back as 1879.

The fused quartz from Spruce Pine HPQ offers “unparalleled optical, mechanical, and thermal properties” for semiconductors, solar photovoltaic cells, optical fiber, and quartz lighting.

(Image credit: Sibelco)

Returning to the question of Spruce Pine’s particular importance, Mollick makes it clear in his social media thread that, yes, fully synthetic techniques are available to create similarly pure quartz. However, any sudden closure or interruption of the mining at Spruce Pine would likely cause “pretty catastrophic” disruption (and extra expense) for a few years as the industry scales up manufacturing.

Source: Tomshardware.com

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The post The world’s semiconductor industry hinges on a single quartz factory in North Carolina first appeared on Energy News Beat.

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Nigeria Expects FID on Gas Pipeline with Morocco by Year-End

Energy News Beat

The final investment decision (FID) on the planned $25 billion Nigeria-Morocco pipeline linking North and West Africa could be reached by December, a senior Nigerian oil official said.

Nigerian National Petroleum Co. Ltd. (NNPC) chief executive Mele Kyari announced this at the CERAweek energy conference in Houston, Texas, where he championed the role of gas in the energy transition, according to a news release by NNPC.

“We understand the arguments towards attaining energy transition, but the cheapest way to achieve that is through gas”, Kyari was quoted as saying in the NNPC report. “We see clear opportunities that gas creates. Today we are building a number of trunklines and other gas infrastructure that will supply gas to a number of gas networks”.

The press release stated citing Kyari, “[T]here is an ongoing engagement on the Nigeria Morocco Gas Pipeline Project (NMGP), which is at an advanced stage, to create a pipeline that will pass through thirteen African countries and all the way to Europe”.

The pipeline is proposed to run from Nigeria to Morocco passing through Benin, Togo, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, The Gambia, Senegal and Mauritania, according to information from NNPC and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

The project is planned to have a gas transport capacity of three billion cubic feet per day, according to NNPC.

While the project agreement was signed 2017, a memorandum of understanding was signed September 2022 merging the West Africa gas pipeline extension project of ECOWAS and the Nigeria-Morocco pipeline.

Earlier oil and energy officials from Nigeria and Morocco met to elevate discussions toward an FID for the project.

“The project, among other things, will help drive the monetization of Nigeria’s gas resources, maintain NNPC Ltd.’s energy leadership in Africa, and promote economic and regional cooperation among African Countries”, NNPC said in a statement January 25 about the talks.

“Due to the international nature of the project, the ECOWAS Commission is saddled with the responsibility to, among other things, facilitate inter-governmental treaty and host government agreements, establishment of Pipeline Higher Authority, and alignment with AU [African Union], UN and other relevant international bodies”, it said at the time.

“The talks focused on how to drive the partnership between the two countries to accelerate the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline Project in line with the series of Memoranda of Understanding signed between the two countries in Abuja in 2022”, NNPC said.

“Both parties emphasized the strategic importance of the project to the two countries and the entire African continent and the need to drive it to completion expeditiously in line with the objective of stemming energy poverty on the African continent”.

Last year more African countries signed MOUs committing themselves to pursuing the Nigeria-Morocco pipeline project.

Four MOUs were inked June 16, 2023, by NNPC, Morocco’s National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines, Benin’s National Hydrocarbons Co., Cote d’Ivoire’s National Company for Petroleum Operations, Guinea’s National Petroleum Co. and Liberia’s National Oil Co., as announced by NNPC at the time.

While announcing the planned FID at CERAWeek, Kyari told energy executives and government officials that “before energy transition, countries must first attain security of energy supply”, as quoted by the NNPC release.

“You cannot talk about energy security when it is not even available”, the NNPC leader was quoted as saying. “In most sub-Saharan Africa, 70 percent of the population don’t have access to clean cooking fuels”.

Kyari added, “For us today, the transition must be differentiated”.

“Even if Africa decides to switch off its fossil fuels, it only accounts for just about 3 percent of the entire global emissions”, Kyari said.

Source: Rigzone.com

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Don’t let California politicians gaslight you. Higher gas prices are driven by deliberate policy choices.

Energy News Beat

Gas prices in California are the highest in the nation, and the state recently announced its policies are about to drive them even higher. 

A recent Los Angeles Times editorial completely misrepresented the root causes and attempted to cast blame in the wrong place. This is the same tactic the governor and Legislature have been using to try to displace the blame, but the facts speak for themselves. For example, it is a FACT that many factors impact California’s gas prices, but policy choices made by the governor, Legislature, and state regulators have made California’s gas and diesel prices the highest in the nation. 

As of March 11, 2024, state and local governments collected $1.24/gallon in taxes and fees—27 percent of the total cost of a gallon of gas goes to state and local agencies and another 18 cents above this goes to federal taxes. These aren’t industry talking points; these are FACTS provided by the California Energy Commission tracked and monitored over the past 20-plus years. The California government collects a 58-cent state excise tax, 12 cent per gallon low carbon fuel standard cost, 54 cents for cap and trade and other environmental fees, 10 cents for state and local sales tax, and a 2-cent state underground storage fee. 

How do the governor and editorial writers at the Times justify this? Especially because gasoline taxes are one of the most regressive taxes in the state and are directly responsible for our high cost of living and high inflation rate. To offset this fact, the governor and Legislature argue that the money goes to pay for environmental programs.  

While that may have been the Legislature and regulators’ original intent, these environmental fees are unrestricted profits to the state and can be used for whatever purpose the governor and Legislature wish, regardless of their connection to the environment. This year, the governor plans to take the profit he’s made off of all California drivers’ gasoline and diesel purchases to backfill the state’s general fund budget. 

We all agree we must address climate change, but we must balance ambition with reality, especially cost. According to a recent report for the Center for Jobs and the Economy California’s aggressive climate laws and regulations have done no better and, in some years, worse than the rest of the nation, but they are increasing the price of electricity, fuels and natural gas. Other states have produced actual emissions reductions by pursuing alternative and generally less costly approaches.

Meanwhile, regulators and the governor are doubling down on their expensive policies that are driving up the cost of living. According to the Energy Commission, currently, our unique gas adds 15 cents to every gallon sold in California. In just a few months, CARB expects that cost could increase by another 47 cents per gallon. Eventually, this program could increase by a total of  $1.83/gallon—and both are CARB estimates in constant 2021 dollars that do not account for inflation–on top of the other environmental fees and taxes that are already the highest in the nation.

At a time when Californians are paying more for electricity, housing, food, and other necessities they cannot afford a 50-cent increase per gallon, let alone nearly two dollars more.

The bottom line is that California’s policy choices are driving the high cost at the pump, and they’re continuing to do so. It might be easier to play the blame game, but the facts are the facts—the state of California makes a lot more money off a gallon of gas than oil companies do. 

These facts aren’t refuted by regulators (in fact, they’re the ones who publish them), or even politicians. 

But deflecting blame won’t lower costs, won’t bring down inflation, won’t make it easier for working families to thrive in California. We need realistic policy solutions, not scapegoats, and trying to deflect blame won’t lead to meaningful solutions anytime soon. 

Source: Ocregister-com.cdn.ampproject.org

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America’s lithium laws fail to keep pace with rapid development

Energy News Beat

March 25 (Reuters) – Washington’s drive to make the United States a major global lithium producer is being held back by a confusing mix of state regulations that are deterring developers and hampering efforts to break China’s control of the critical minerals sector.
Across Texas, Louisiana and other mineral-rich states, it’s unclear who owns the millions of metric tons of lithium locked in salty brines underneath U.S. soils, how the battery metal should be valued by regulators and who ultimately should pay to process it into a form usable by manufacturers.
These legal ambiguities are the latest impediment – alongside technical challenges and sagging commodity prices – to America’s plans to produce more of its own lithium and wean the country off foreign supplies, according to interviews with regulators from seven U.S. states, legal experts, politicians, landowners, investors, royalty firms, industry executives and consultants.
U.S. federal officials in Washington are largely powerless to force states to change regulations, leaving the Biden administration’s aggressive electrification targets beholden to the pace at which local officials update outdated statutes.
Global lithium demand is expected to outpace supply by 500,000 metric tons annually by 2030. Unless the United States boosts its own production, the country’s manufacturers will find themselves reliant on China and others for supply as the end of the decade approaches, analysts warn.
The Texas legislature, for example, last year approved a law – supported by Standard Lithium (SLI.V), opens new tab and Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab – that instructed the state’s oilfield regulator to craft regulations for lithium extraction from brines. But the regulator, known as the Railroad Commission of Texas, told Reuters is has no timeline for when it will finish that task.
“I don’t even know where to start in terms of working with the local authorities to get brine mineral rights in Texas. It’s confusing,” said Brady Murphy, CEO of Tetra Technologies (TTI.N), opens new tab, which aims to produce lithium with partner Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), opens new tab.
The Railroad Commission of Texas told Reuters it plans to release its rules for public comment once they are formulated, and then the three commissioners will vote on them.
While the 1972 U.S. Clean Water Act gives Washington regulatory power over water extraction and reinjection across the country, state officials have autonomy to govern other parts of the process.
Tetra, which also produces chemicals for water treatment and recycling, has tested more than 200 brine samples from Texas, but so far has opted not to do business in the Lone Star State due to legal uncertainty, Murphy said.
Koch Industries-backed Standard Lithium said last October it had drilled a Texas brine well with lithium concentrations nearly as high as those found in parts of Chile, which has the world’s largest lithium reserves. But Standard can’t touch that lithium until regulations are set.
“We’re taking a measured approach to Texas,” said Robert Mintak, Standard’s CEO.

REGULATORY RISKS

In Oklahoma, which has several brine deposits, the Oklahoma Corporation Commission – which oversees oil and gas development – said it has no jurisdiction over lithium production and royalties, and referred comment to the state’s Department of Mines, which said it also does not oversee lithium.
In Utah, the state legislature and governor approved a bill last year aimed at preventing water levels from dropping in the lithium-rich Great Salt Lake. That led Compass Minerals (CMP.N), opens new tab to abandon plans last month to produce lithium for Ford (F.N), opens new tab in the imperiled lake and disband its entire lithium team, saying “regulatory risks have increased significantly around this project.”
And in Louisiana, the lack of state guidelines is fueling concerns from legal experts that producers could trespass on neighboring land when they reinject brine after filtering out lithium. Reinjection is a key step to preserve underground water table levels.
“There’ll likely need to be a court fight about whether they have the right to do that,” said Keith Hall, director of the Louisiana State University’s Mineral Law Institute.
The Louisiana Department of Energy and Natural Resources told Reuters it does not have existing statutes related to lithium.
The path is even murkier for water that is extracted alongside crude oil. Oil companies for decades have paid to dispose of that produced water, which contains lithium that could be sold for a profit.
With lithium demand now on the rise, landowners, oil producers, and companies that oversee water disposal are tussling over ownership.
A Texas state appeals court last year ruled that COG Operating controls such water that it extracts alongside crude oil, but the ruling only applied to that specific case. And not all oilfield leases include clauses for who owns other minerals extracted alongside oil, sparking questions as to whether lithium is covered by existing leases or if companies need to negotiate new contracts with landowners.
“That is going to have a chilling effect on capital investments until it’s resolved,” said Jamie Rhymes, an attorney specializing in minerals contracts at the Liskow & Lewis law firm.

ARKANSAS

Legal experts told Reuters that it’s unclear how lithium will be valued for royalty payouts given the cost for equipment to filter the battery metal from brine, which unlike oil typically has no market value itself.
In Arkansas, where Tetra, Exxon, Albemarle (ALB.N), opens new tab and Standard Lithium hope to produce the battery metal within a few years, state officials have been debating a royalty structure to compensate landowners since 2018.
Shane Khoury, who oversees the body that will set the royalty rate in his role as secretary of the Arkansas Department of Energy and Environment, said the state may charge different rates depending how much lithium is in a brine deposit.
Albemarle, the world’s largest lithium producer with operations in the United States, Chile, Australia, China and elsewhere, plans to open a pilot facility in Arkansas by the end of the year and said it has chosen not to – for now – submit a royalty proposal while it watches Standard’s royalty review process.
“We’re waiting to see how (the Arkansas royalty situation) evolves,” said Netha Johnson, the Albemarle executive overseeing the company’s Arkansas lithium project. “There’s a couple of fundamental differences between the way that brine royalties could be calculated.”
Exxon also has not submitted a royalty proposal despite spending more than $100 million in Arkansas and on a Houston test facility as part of an aggressive move into lithium, but said it hopes the state’s royalty will be uniform across the state.
California, which has giant lithium reserves in its Salton Sea region east of Los Angeles, last year imposed a flat-rate tax for each metric ton of lithium. The move has pushed back development of projects slated to supply General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab and Stellantis (STLAM.MI), opens new tab. California’s governor and legislators have defended the tax as a necessary way to ensure all residents benefit from the energy transition.
Nevada, which has the only commercial U.S. lithium operation – a small mine operated by Albemarle – has taxed minerals for more than 100 years, but at a rate based on each facility’s revenue.
Industry analysts expect regulations to be eventually set in various states, but predicting when is anyone’s guess.
“The uncertainty is the scariest part,” said the owner of lithium-rich acreage across several states who declined to be named so as not to offend regulators. “How do you develop these projects and muster financial support without a regulatory structure in place?”
Source: Reuters.com

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The post America’s lithium laws fail to keep pace with rapid development first appeared on Energy News Beat.

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Oil Demand Outpaces Expectations, Testing Calculus on Peak Crude

Energy News Beat

The world is using more oil than ever and demand is outpacing expectations again this year, raising questions about how soon global consumption will peak.

The unabated thirst for crude contributed to an increasingly confident tone from executives at this year’s CERAWeek by S&P Global conference, the industry’s annual get together in Houston, America’s energy capital. Despite the rise of electric vehicles and renewable energy, many attendees who spoke in interviews or on stage at the event this week said they expect consumption to rise for many years to come, dealing a blow to meeting goals to decarbonize the global economy.

“We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas,” said Amin Nasser, the chief executive officer of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest producer. Instead we should “invest in them adequately, reflecting realistic demand assumptions, as long as essential,” he said in a speech applauded enthusiastically by attendees.

Russell Hardy, the CEO of Vitol SA, the biggest global oil trader, told the conference his firm was pushing back the estimated peak in oil consumption to the early 2030s because of downgraded expectations on the adoption of electric vehicles.

The International Energy Agency, guardian of the industrialized world’s energy security, forecasts oil demand will rise 1.3 million barrels a day in 2024. While that’s less than last year’s jump of 2.2 million barrels, when China’s emergence from Covid restrictions juiced consumption, it’s still healthy by historical standards.

The agency, which has had to raise its forecasts several times, now expects daily demand to average a record 103.2 million barrels this year. It points to the strength of the US economy and the extra distance sailed by ships avoiding the Suez Canal as drivers of demand.

But many in the industry think the IEA, which expects global demand to peak before the end of the decade, is too conservative both in the short- and medium-term.

Oil trader Gunvor Group expects an increase of 1.4 million barrels a day this year. Trafigura, another global merchant, says the consensus expectation is about 1.5 million barrels, but argues there are considerable upside risks to that forecast.

“The US economy, in particular, has surprised to the upside,” Saad Rahim, Trafigura’s chief economist, said in an interview. “Oil demand is performing better than expectations.”

The strength of consumption has helped to drive a rally in oil prices — benchmark Brent crude oil futures have risen 11% this year, at one point trading at more than $87 a barrel.

There are areas where demand is especially robust — the rerouting of ships away from the Red sea alone has added 100,000 barrels a day to global demand, according to Vitol. Jet fuel and plastics are also strong drivers.

India is also set to be a major contributor of additional usage. Its government expects the economy will expand 7% in the fiscal year beginning April, making it one of the fastest-growing major economies. The world’s third-biggest oil importer behind China and the US, India is set to be the single largest source of global demand growth between now and 2030, according to the IEA.

“Oil demand has stayed very strong, both in the US and in other countries, both developed countries and emerging markets,” said Helen Currie, chief economist at US oil producer ConocoPhillips. “We’re looking for another record high in world demand this year across the board.”

Until the link between economic growth and rising demand for gasoline, diesel and other oil products can be broken, a peak in crude consumption is likely to remain elusive.

The rise of EVs at the expense of internal combustion engines will be the biggest drag on oil demand in coming years, especially in China. But research from BloombergNEF forecasts EV sales growth will slow in coming years, while the total stock of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles continues to rise.

“We see demand increasing throughout this energy transition,” Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp., said this week, explaining why the Middle East nation plans to expand oil production capacity.

Source: Rigzone.com

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Coal, the Dirtiest Fossil Fuel, Prepares for a Long Goodbye

Energy News Beat

More than two years after climate negotiators first attempted to consign coal to history, the dirtiest fossil fuel is having a moment.

Thanks to a combination of China’s energy insecurity — pushing Beijing back to trusted power sources — plus rising Indian demand, the continued fallout from the war in Ukraine and faltering international programs to wean developing economies off fossil fuels, coal is proving remarkably resilient. Output hit a record last year, and producers are preparing for a future where they will be required for decades yet to balance renewable energy.

Even prices are holding up. While thermal coal is trading at just a fraction of the lofty levels reached in 2022, after Russia’s invasion of its neighbor, prices are still well above historic norms. Benchmark Newcastle coal futures are changing hands just under $130 a ton, roughly a quarter of the peak but higher than any level between 2011 and 2020.

Much of this second wind is down to Asia. In 2000, the International Energy Agency estimated advanced economies accounted for almost half of coal consumption. By 2026, China and India alone will make up more than 70%. Those two heavyweights and Indonesia started operating new coal power plants amounting to 59 gigawatts last year, and either launched or revived proposals for another 131 gigawatts — about 93% of the world’s total, according to Global Energy Monitor.

“You look at Asia, the demand and the build out of coal-fired power plants, particularly in India — coal’s not going anywhere anytime soon,” Rob Bishop, chief executive officer of Australian miner New Hope Corp., said in an interview.

The extended final act will be a vindication for fossil fuel executives, who have long argued against the feasibility of shifting swiftly out of carbon-intensive power, pointing out benefits in terms of reliability and cost. A mention of coal’s buoyancy earned Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser a round of applause at a major energy conference in Houston last week.

It’s less good news for efforts to curb carbon emissions and reach global climate goals.

For years, analysts expected coal production to plateau after it hit a then-record in 2013. Funding, after all, was drying up. Then came 2021, when power shortages in China set Beijing on a path to order more mining to ensure energy security.

In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and blackouts during heatwaves in India further bolstered coal demand. By last year, output had risen to a record 8.7 billion tons, according to the IEA.

That figure is expected to drop this year. But the agency expects it to stabilize through 2026 — in line with industry forecasts of a long goodbye.

Read more: Oil Demand Outpaces Expectations, Testing Calculus on Peak Crude

All of this is visible on the ground. In China, which produces and consumes half the world’s coal, miners are struggling to maintain growth rates after boosting output 21% over the past three years to 4.7 billion tons. Low-cost reserves have mostly been tapped, leading companies to dig deeper, more expensive mines. Fatalities have also started rising after years of declines.

China Shenhua Energy Co., the nation’s largest publicly traded miner, expects its coal output to fall 2.6% this year, while the per-unit cost of mining could rise by about 10%, according to its annual report Friday.

Record Renewables

Record amounts of new solar panels and wind turbines, along with a rebound in hydropower and steadily growing nuclear generation, mean low-carbon energy will likely exceed the growth in electricity consumption, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

But that clean energy will also be coal’s lifeline, said Zhang Hong, deputy secretary-general of the China National Coal Association. Renewable power only generates when weather permits, so even as other baseload options emerge, cheap and reliable coal will still play a role.

“The next 10 to 15 years will remain a crucial strategic window,” Zhang said.

India is the one country where the IEA forecasts coal output to grow this year, with production set to top 1 billion tons for the first time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi needs to meet growing energy demand while reducing reliance on expensive imports. Yet even after a surge in renewables, nuclear, hydropower and other baseload options have fallen short — so coal is expected to remain the dominant source of power at least until the end of this decade.

Meanwhile, Indonesia, the world’s top thermal coal exporter, expects stable production for the next two years. That’s partly to feed surging domestic demand from a booming, power-hungry nickel processing sector, even if lower prices eventually cool enthusiasm.

But it’s also evidence of the difficulty of accelerating the end of coal where economies have newer plants, rising energy demand and an urgent need to create jobs. In 2022, Jakarta agreed to a $20 billion green deal with wealthy governments and financial institutions that would, among other things, close coal power stations early. Coal phaseouts, however, have proved far more challenging than anticipated. Landmark deals remain on the negotiating table.

Coal’s days are numbered, of course. Advances in solar and wind have made those technologies far cheaper than coal power in most parts of the world, and similar gains for batteries and energy storage systems could finally make around-the-clock renewable power affordable enough to transform the energy mix.

But for now, the transition is testing years-long expectations of rapid peaks and subsequent steep declines.

“We see that the world needs more operators to mine coal and support the transition over many decades to come,” New Hope’s Bishop said.

On the Wire

China’s EVE Energy Co. is in advanced talks to invest at least £1.2 billion ($1.5 billion) to build a factory for electric vehicle batteries in the UK, according to The Times.

Sinopec’s annual profits declined 13%, after oil prices fell and Chinese refiners posted a record year for processing and imports.

China’s steel industry is young compared to Europe’s, and its transition to net zero may be slower as it takes a different path to reach government-mandated decarbonization goals, according to BHP Group Ltd.’s Chief Executive Officer Mike Henry.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang downplayed investor concerns of challenges facing the economy, saying Beijing is stepping up policy support to spur growth and systemic risks are being addressed.

The Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing unless noted.)

Monday, March 25:

Sinopec earnings briefing in HK, 15:00
Beijing international hydrogen exhibition, day 1
China Development Forum in Beijing, day 2
EARNINGS: PetroChina, Kunlun Energy, TCL Zhonghuan

Tuesday, March 26:

Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan, day 1
China clean energy expo in Beijing, day 1
Beijing international hydrogen exhibition, day 2
China Photovoltaic Industry Association solar development forum in Beijing
EARNINGS: China Oilfield, BYD, Flat Glass, Datang Renewable, WH Group

Wednesday, March 27:

China industrial profits for Jan.-Feb., 09:30
CCTD’s weekly online briefing on Chinese coal, 15:00
PetroChina earnings briefing in HK, 16:00
Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan, day 2
China clean energy expo in Beijing, day 2
Beijing international hydrogen exhibition, day 3
EARNINGS: Chalco, CGN Power, Tianqi Lithium, Longyuan

Thursday, March 28:

China copper smelters quarterly meeting in Shanghai
Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan, day 3
China clean energy expo in Beijing, day 3
EARNINGS: Maanshan Steel, Angang Steel, Metallurgical Corp., Ganfeng Lithium, Citic Ltd., Cosco Shipping, Yankuang, Goldwind, China Resources Gas

Friday, March 29:

Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan, day 4
China weekly iron ore port stockpiles
Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
EARNINGS: Jiangxi Copper, Shandong Steel

–With assistance from Rajesh Kumar Singh, Kathy Chen and Stephen Stapczynski.

Source: Finance.yahoo.com

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The post Coal, the Dirtiest Fossil Fuel, Prepares for a Long Goodbye first appeared on Energy News Beat.

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EU push to make private sector finance key investments is misguided, analysts warn

Energy News Beat

 

The EU’s recent push to encourage the private sector to step in to finance critical investment – especially through the revival of Capital Market Union (CMU) plans –  is both unrealistic and misguided, experts warned.

On Monday (11 March), European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni suggested that the funds needed for the bloc’s digital and green transitions “will mostly be coming from private resources” – and that these could, in turn, be mobilised through boosting EU CMU plans.

Gentiloni was expanding on comments from the eurozone’s 20 finance ministers that the EU’s long-debated new fiscal rules will require government spending cuts next year, thereby further amplifying European officials’ focus on the private sector as the primary source of strategic investments.

However, Philipp Lausberg, an analyst at the European Policy Centre (EPC), was highly sceptical of legislators’ newly-found enthusiasm for almost decade-old CMU plans.

“It seems like member states have discovered the Capital Markets Union now as a sort of panacea for their investment needs,” he said.

Lausberg noted that it would be a “huge effort” for the EU to agree to deepen the CMU, given the bloc’s “minuscule” progress since plans to consolidate the EU’s single market for capital were first introduced by the Commission in 2015.

Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at Bruegel think-tank, also pointed to the ECB’s assessment last week that “there are no more low-hanging fruits to pick” to further integrate capital markets.

Véron attributed the EU’s resistance to deepening the CMU over the past decade to a “mix of factors”, including “economic nationalism” and the “sheer inertia” of member states’ bureaucracies that “want to protect their existing turf”.

The role of private money

Meanwhile, other analysts criticised the broader implication of legislators’ assumption that private funds should and could replace public investments.

“Private money is different to public money,” said Sebastian Mang, a senior policy officer at London-based think tank New Economics Foundation (NEF).

“Private money needs investments to be financially profitable. And many climate solutions may not be, but have enormous social value in making sure we don’t overshoot planetary boundaries.”

“Public investment is also crucial for ‘crowding in’ private investment,” he added, referring to the theory that government funds can incentivise and trigger private investment.

Mang pointed to the fact that multiple recent studies have concluded that government spending will be crucial for Europe to meet its climate targets.

These include a report published last year by the European Central Bank (ECB) estimating that the bloc will need to allocate the equivalent of between 1 and 1.8% of total EU GDP to additional public investments over the 2021-2030 decade to reach its goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 50% relative to 1990 levels.

“We need massive public investment [for things that span] from targeted industrial policy, to making sure low-income families are able to access green and cost-saving solutions like energy efficiency, to climate adaptation and nature restoration,” Mang said.

Fiscal rules queried

Patricia Velicu, a senior policy adviser at industriALL Europe, which represents seven million employees in Europe’s manufacturing, energy, and mining sectors, expressed dismay at the fact that the fiscal rules mean that member states must financially “tie their hands for absolutely no reason”.

“We are not saying that we should not have any fiscal rules, we are just saying that the current deal […] is not fit for the challenges that our society is facing in Europe,” she said.

Meanwhile, Mang also rebuffed another argument put forward by European Commission vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis at a press conference after the meeting of the bloc’s 27 finance ministers on Tuesday (12 March).

Asked by Euractiv about the restrictive impact of the bloc’s recently-approved fiscal rules on government expenditure, Dombrovskis said that such constraints are necessary to “avoid a situation where fiscal policy would contradict [the ECB’s] monetary policy in its task to reduce inflation”.

“Fiscal stimulus would stimulate inflation more than growth and [entail] corresponding higher financing costs for governments,” he added.

Mang, however, thought the view conveyed by Dombrovskis was misplaced, as green investments will ultimately contribute to long-term price stability.

“If we are able to transition to a new energy grid that is not reliant on fossil fuels, then we will not be as dependent on international fossil fuel price fluctuations, which will help ensure price stability,” he said.

Source: Euractiv.com

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