Energy News Beat

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz seems optimistic that his governing coalition — comprising his center-left Social Democrats, the Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats — will push ahead with the country’s energy transition. He remains optimistic despite Germany’s budget problems, despite growing bureaucratic challenges and a mood of despondency prevalent among large parts of German society.

“If we manage to achieve what we have set out to do, and I am confident that we will, then we will break with 200 years of industrial tradition and prosperity built on coal, gas and oil,” said Scholz, speaking in Potsdam last Monday.

Currently, around 30% of German electricity is still generated by burning coal and gas. Wind turbines, meanwhile, generate almost half of the country’s power. The government aims to shift to fully climate-neutral electricity production primarily by establishing large wind farms far out in the North and Baltic Sea.

The post Can Germany meet its ambitious wind energy targets? appeared first on Energy News Beat.

Energy News Beat

Given that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax is costing the average Canadian household hundreds of dollars annually when factoring in its negative impact on the economy, how much is it lowering Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions?

In response to an order paper question by Conservative MP Dan Mazier last week (hat tip to commentator Spencer Fernando for reporting it), Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said:

“The government does not measure the annual amount of emissions that are directly reduced by federal carbon pricing. Retroactively attributing specific GHG reductions to a specific action, such as carbon pricing, a discrete regulation, or a specific incentive, is difficult given the multiple interacting factors that influence emissions, including carbon pricing, tax incentives, funding programs, investor preferences and consumer demand. The National Inventory Report, which reports annually on historical GHG emissions, does not include this information.”

Given that, how can Canadians possibly know if they’re getting good value for the money they’re spending on the carbon tax?

Mazier posted on X that, “Trudeau’s radical Environment Minister admits the government DOES NOT measure how many emissions are ‘reduced’ by their costly carbon tax. Why? Because the carbon tax is not an environmental plan – it’s a tax plan.”

BREAKING NEWS

Trudeau’s radical Environment Minister admits the government DOES NOT measure how many emissions are ‘reduced’ by their costly carbon tax.

Why?

Because the carbon tax is not an environmental plan – it’s a tax plan.

Emissions have gone up since Trudeau. pic.twitter.com/y8qfDn5LJN

— Dan Mazier (@MBDan7) February 2, 2024

Parliamentary budget officer Yves Giroux reported last year that 60% of Canadian households paying the federal carbon tax (in all provinces except Quebec and B.C., which have federally-approved carbon pricing plans) are paying more in carbon tax than they receive in climate action incentive rebates, when factoring in its negative impact on the Canadian economy.

The PBO says this will increase to 80% in Nova Scotia in 2025, 80% in Ontario in 2026, 80% in Manitoba in 2029 and 80% in Alberta and P.E.I. in 2030.

Here are the PBO’s estimated net costs for people living in provinces under the federal carbon tax regime. The first figure is the estimated average household cost this year, with the carbon tax at $65 per tonne of emissions, the second in 2030 when it will be $170 per tonne:

Alberta $710, $2,773; Ontario: $478, $1,820; Saskatchewan $410, $1723; Manitoba $386, $1490; Nova Scotia $431, $1,513; P.E.I $465, $1,521; Newfoundland and Labrador $347, $1,316.

The PBO’s calculations did not include New Brunswick because it joined the federal carbon tax system after it did these estimates.

The Trudeau government says 80% of households paying the carbon tax end up better off financially because of the rebate system but, again, the PBO says that’s only true if you don’t factor in its negative impact on the economy.

Mazier’s question about emission reductions was prompted by testimony from Derek Hermanutz, director general of the economic analysis directorate of the federal environment ministry before the Commons environment committee on Nov. 9, 2023 that:

“I think we’re probably in a world where we could say with some rough analysis that up to one-third, potentially, of the emissions reductions that we’re projecting to 2030 would come from carbon pricing.”

In a Dec. 1, 2023 news release, “How pollution pricing reduces emissions,” the federal government simultaneously estimated reductions from the carbon tax as “roughly one-third” and “as much as one-third” of Canada’s emission reductions in 2030.

A chart in the release estimated the carbon tax will reduce Canada’s emissions (670 million tonnes in 2021, according to the latest available government data) by 19 million tonnes in 2022, 24 million tonnes in 2023, 32 million tonnes in 2024, 43 million tonnes in 2025, 49 million tonnes in 2026, 56 million tonnes in 2027, 62 million tonnes in 2028, 70 million tonnes in 2029 and 79 million tonnes in 2030.

Of course, the government isn’t sure because it hasn’t measured the annual amount of emissions directly reduced by the carbon tax since introducing it in 2019.

This also means most reductions the Trudeau government claims will be achieved in 2030 – at least 66% – have to come from measures other than the carbon tax.

As for the carbon tax’s effectiveness as part of what the Trudeau government says is its $200 billion plan to address climate change, Canada’s emissions in 2021 increased by 1.8% to 670 million tonnes compared to 2020.

The Trudeau government’s goal is to reduce Canada’s annual emissions by 40% to 45% compared to 2005 levels in 2030.

In 2021, they were 8.5% lower than 2005 levels.

We won’t know Canada’s 2022 emissions until April, because the government reports them two years after the fact.

The PBO says Canada’s emissions – 1.5% of the global total – are too small to materially impact climate change.

Source: The Toronto Sun

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A team of climate scientists want to launch enormous umbrellas into space to reduce the Earth’s exposure to the sun and fight climate change, The New York Times reported Friday.

The underlying idea is that large parasols could be positioned in space such that they marginally reduce the intensity of sunlight the Earth receives and thereby mitigate some global warming, the Times reported. In order to block out enough radiation, a single sunshade would need to be approximately the size of Argentina — nearly one million square miles — and would weigh about 2.5 million tons, so scientists are looking to prove the idea could work by first producing a 100-square foot prototype with the help of $10 to $20 million of funding.

Dr. Yoram Rozen, a physics professor and the Asher Space Research Institute’s director at Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, is leading the team of scientists pushing the idea, according to the Times. Because the Argentina-sized umbrella would be too large to feasibly launch into space, his team is hoping to build a set of smaller shades that would diffuse the intensity of the radiation reaching the planet.

“We can show the world, look, there is a working solution, take it, increase it to the necessary size,” Rozen told the Times.

Rozen and his team are still designing the prototype, but they anticipate that they could build it within about three years once they get the required funds, according to the Times. A full-sized product would cost trillions of dollars, and that expense would likely have to be picked up by many countries, Rozen told the Times.

“We at the Technion are not going to save the planet,” Rozen told the Times. “But we’re going to show that it can be done.”

Supporters of the ambitious sunshade idea posit that, if implemented successfully, the world would still need to stop using fossil fuels to power the global economy, according to the Times.

“I’m not saying this will be the solution, but I think everybody has to work toward every possible solution,” Istvan Szapudi, an astronomer at the Institute for Astronomy at the University of Hawaii who recently published a paper examining a similar idea, told the Times.

Source: The dailycaller

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Energy News Beat

​[[{“value”:”

The mining industry in Chile, the world’s top copper producer and second-largest lithium producer, will need more than 34,000 new workers by 2032, according to a study released this week.

The report by the CCM-Eleva Alliance, a joint initiative between the Mining Council and Fundacion Chile, analyzed workforce trends and challenges of 27 mining and supplier companies in the country, representing 96% of the sector.

“The fresh estimation of talents needed in the next decade reflects a growth of 36% compared to what was estimated in the previous study,” said Vladimir Glasinovic, director of the Eleva Program (CCM-Eleva Alliance). “It shows a mining industry that is growing robustly, generating jobs and local development.”

One of the main findings of the study was that demand for human capital will increase by more than a third over the next nine years, compared to the previous edition of the study, published two years ago. The main drivers of this demand for talent are the retirement of workers nearing the end of their careers and the development of new projects in key regions. 

The main projects fuelling demand for new talent, according to the report, are Teck’s Quebrada Blanca 2 (Q2), which produced first copper last year and is ramping up operations; Gold Fields’ Salares Norte, expected to start by April; Antofagasta’s Centinela Mining District, and Anglo American’s Los Bronces expansion, slated tentatively for early 2026.

The study also identified that 75% of the demand for professionals will be concentrated in five types of specialists, with mechanical maintainers topping the list. Mobile equipment operators and fixed equipment operators took the second and third places, respectively.

The study aims to provide relevant information for public policies and industry strategies to address the human capital needs of the mining sector, which is one of the main pillars of Chile’s economy. It also highlighted the progress and challenges in terms of gender equity, technological impact and educational offer available in the country.

Source: CCM-Eleva Alliance Report.

It concluded that female participation in the industry is at 15%, where one in every three hires within mining companies was a woman, and participation in decision-making positions reached 17%.

The figures show that Chile’s female participation percentage in the labor market is below those of developed countries or other economies in the region. However, in terms of womens’ participation in the mining industry, the country is better positioned, above Peru and at the same level than the United States.

Overall, the Chile’s mining industry currently registers the highest employment rate in 12 years, showing a 38% increase with respect to 2020 and 22% compared to 2011.

The full report, “Workforce Study of Large-scale Mining in Chile 2023-2032″ is available here.

“}]] 

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Energy News Beat

Tucker Carlson just released “Something Big Is About to Happen” and discussed the border as a migration and invasion. Dr. Bret Weinstine is Tucker’s quest, and he covers his visit to the Darien Gap and discussions with Michael Yon. Michael was able to show him all of the camps and the paths that the migrants take from all over the world.

What Tucker and Bret missed was the connection to the US Grid. The Chinese camp can only be described as a military processing camp. The Secretary of Homeland Security visited the Center, and the number of Chinese military-aged men traveling through the camp went up to 10,900 from 900 in the previous 100 days.

Why is this important? I have been talking about grid security for years, and the ability for the Chinese-purchased main grid interconnects has been documented, and now confirmed by the US. Officials. The story “US Officials Deliver Warning that Chinese Hackers are Targeting Infrastructure – Warning About The Real Question – Is Mayorkas in on it?  was posted on January 31st. It covers more of the FBI warnings and descriptions of the topics covered by Tucker, Michael Yon, and Dr. Bret Weinstine. The grid can be brought down remotely, and with 10s of thousands of military-aged men in the country – you should be aware.

Please follow Michael Yon on his Substack, Twitter, and LinkedIn. He is a national treasure that has been battle-tested and should be listened to. I appreciate his efforts in sharing his travels and his leadership. George McMillian and I have talked about Michael and George’s travels through the Panama and Darien Gap areas.

https://t.co/41KMcKIW6M Michael – here is our podcast that talks about your trip to the Darien Gap.

— STUART TURLEY – Energy Podcast Host (@STUARTTURLEY16) February 4, 2024

@Michael_Yon Twitter

@TuckerCarlson

https://youtu.be/1XhsgQ48fGs?si=rElwavSFRHQDj7I_ Tucker’s Interview

Highlights of the Podcast

01:34 – Chinese grid equipment coming

05:32 – The Panama Canal Railway

11:38 – The IOM helps the invaders get through from Colombia

29:29 – The Chinese Communist Party

33:16 – The Canadian border and increasing numbers

38:09 – The vaccine before the Palestinians

52:36 – The war in Ukraine and got into some combat stuff

1:19:57 – The factories and people are still smoking dope in America

1:24:22 – The biggest gas field in Europe

1:30:20 – The Second Amendment folks to try to bring in the U.N.

1:41:07 – The Chinese Communist Party and the World Economic Forum

1:47:56 – The structure of lies and truth

The video below is from Michael Yon on his trip to Panama and traveling with George McMillan going through the Darien Gap. I appreciate both George and Michael’s time to tell me about their trips and the connections they are seeing.

The camps not controlled by the Chinese are all funded by the UN and other NGOs. The following are from Michael on their trip. George even commented that he has also seen these same NGOs worldwide facilitating migrations of people. The UN NGO headquarters is right in the open on the Panama Canal. Michael took this shot.

Thank you, Michael Yon, for your efforts to help get the story out. The migrants are being used as pawns, and no one will have a better life. The energy sector can help solve the problems, but we need to watch who we elect and hold all of them accountable for our tax dollars. I recommend defunding the UN and electing all new leadership. If you are a current politician from any party, you have not had America first. As a humanitarian, it is sad that people are being sold into slavery and sex trafficked, and our energy security has been compromised. We can provide low-cost power to everyone if we work together and do not print money. The UN, WHO, WEF, and IMF must be tossed out. As the world awakens, it will get more interesting and hazardous.

The post ENB #182 “Something Big is About to Happen” – Tucker Carlson. But what is he missing? The connection to the distruction of the grid. appeared first on Energy News Beat.

Energy News Beat
Wind firm Orsted will present its new strategy on Wednesday
Company faces dilemma of cutting targets or raising capital
Cutting dividend, asset sales could restore confidence -analysts

The post Orsted’s strategic shake-up has investors worried appeared first on Energy News Beat.

Energy News Beat

Dozens of British wind farms run by some of Europe’s largest energy companies have routinely overestimated how much power they’ll produce, adding millions of pounds a year to consumers’ electricity bills, according to market records and interviews with power traders.

These extra costs are linked to a growing problem with Britain’s outdated electricity network: On blustery days, too much wind power risks overloading the system, and the grid operator must respond by paying some firms not to generate. This “curtailment” costs consumers hundreds of millions of pounds each year.

Adding to that expense, some wind farm operators exaggerate how much energy they say they intend to produce, which boosts the payments they receive for turning off, according to nine people — traders, academics and market experts — most of whom agreed to discuss this controversial behavior only on condition of anonymity.

In effect, they said, the grid has paid some wind farms not to generate power that they wouldn’t have produced anyway.

Bloomberg News analyzed 30 million records from 2018 through June 2023 to compare wind operators’ daily forecasts of the energy they planned to generate to their actual production when they weren’t curtailed. Out of 121 wind farms in the analysis, 40 overstated their output by 10% or more on average, and 27 of those overestimated by at least 20%.

Electricite de France SA’s Fallago Rig wind farm near the Scottish border claimed that it would generate 27.1% more power than it did during the five-and-a-half-year period. Just a few miles away, Fred. Olsen Renewables’ Crystal Rig II wind farm said it would produce 35.5% more energy than it delivered. Ventient Energy, backed by JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset management arm, overstated the output at its Farr wind farm by 28.7%.

Spokespeople for EDF and Fred. Olsen said in statements that the firms take compliance with market regulations very seriously and work with third-party firms to provide forecasts. Natural Power, a consultant that provides forecasting services to both firms, said it always followed “industry best practice methodology.” Ventient and JPMorgan declined to comment.

It’s impossible to determine precisely how much bill payers have spent due to such overstatements. But assuming a similar rate of overestimation during the times that those 40 farms were paid to stop generating, consumers would have overpaid an estimated £51 million ($65 million) since 2018.

The data analysis by itself does not demonstrate that any individual company purposely exaggerated its output estimates, and wind can be difficult to predict. But forecasting models are increasingly accurate. Indeed, more than half of the wind farms delivered within 5% of what they predicted. What’s more, about a quarter of them understated their output.

“If you are systematically overpredicting by a large margin then that is suspicious,” said Jethro Browell, a senior lecturer at the University of Glasgow and an expert in energy forecasting. “The average error should be close to zero. They should be underpredicting as often as overpredicting.”

Overstatement has declined recently, but it remains significant. Between 2018 and August 2021, the 40 wind farms that overestimated the most did so by 20%, Bloomberg’s analysis found. From September 2021 through June 2023, those same operators overstated by 13%.

UK regulations explicitly prohibit generators from “obtaining an excessive benefit” when they are paid to stop or reduce their output due to grid constraints. Other rules stipulate that firms must submit a “best estimate” of their generation plans and stick to it as closely as possible.

Former UK Energy Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg said he was shocked by the scale of the overestimation and called on the regulator, which is known as Ofgem, to act urgently. “I’d like to see Ofgem investigate to see if they can verify Bloomberg’s findings,” said Rees-Mogg, who remains a member of Parliament. “If they do, I’d like to see them pass a file to prosecutors to establish whether these firms are committing fraud. The government needs to push Ofgem to act.”

After this story was published on Thursday, an Ofgem spokesman told Bloomberg it had begun “investigating the alleged behavior.” The regulator has also asked National Grid Plc’s network operator to look into the matter, the spokesman said. “We will continue to work to protect market integrity and consumers.”

Any company found to be deliberately submitting inaccurate forecasts would face a substantial fine, Ofgem said in an earlier statement.

Source: Bloomberg

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Energy regulator Ofgem is investigating the claims that wind farms may have incorrectly added close to £51m to taxpayer bills since 2018.

A Bloomberg report found that 40 out of 121 studied projects overstated their output by ten per cent on average and one-sixth (27) wind farms were found to be overstating by at least 20 per cent.

Ofgem said it was investigating the alleged behaviour and has asked the Energy System Operator (ESO) to look into the matter.

“Ofgem will work closely with the ESO to consider all the facts and if it finds evidence of egregious action or market abuse, enforcement action will follow,” the spokesperson told City A.M.

“We will continue to work to protect market integrity and the best interests of consumers, as demonstrated by the recent cases we have concluded against generators who charged excessive prices behind transmission constraints.”

The report has reached government ears and parliamentary under-secretary of state for nuclear and networks Andrew Bowie said in response to its findings: “It is completely unacceptable to overcharge for people’s bills.

“British energy generators must operate at the highest standards,” he added.

Bloomberg caveated its report saying that while it is “impossible to determine precisely how much bill payers have had to pay due to such overstatements, but by assuming a similar rate of overestimation during the times that those 40 farms were paid to stop generating, consumers would have overpaid an estimated £51m ($65m) since 2018”.

Jethro Bowell, a senior lecturer at the University of Glasgow and expert in energy forecasting, told Bloomberg: “If you are systematically overpredicting by a large margin then that is suspicious, the average error should be close to zero and they should be underpredicting as often as overpredicting.”

The UK now stands at 13.7GW operational capacity that’s 45 per cent of the European offshore wind total and 24 per cent of the global offshore wind total.

It also boasts the current and future largest offshore wind farms in the world, the former being Dogger Bank off the coast of Yorkshire and the latter being  Hornsea 3, which Danish energy giant Ørsted is set to construct.

Source: Yahoo Finance: 

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HOUSTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) – After a year marked by oil and gas production setbacks, Chevron Corp  on Friday delivered a better-than-expected 10.7% annual gain from the Permian Basin, its top shale-producing region.

The company delivered a record 867,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter and, after a first-half dip in output, aims to pump about 900,000 bpd by year-end and reach 1 million bpd by 2025.

Chevron increased its productivity in the west Texas and New Mexico shale field by drilling faster and longer horizontal wells with the same drilling rig fleet, said Chief Executive Officer Michael Wirth on a call with analysts.

Results benefited from improved well-completions, and fewer frac hits, midstream problems and scheduled delays. Inflation in the top U.S. shale field also moderated, with room for further improvements, Wirth said.

Shale production will slip 2% to 4% in the first half of this year on January weather disruptions and as the company concentrates on rebuilding its inventory of untapped wells.

Chevron started the year running 12 drilling rigs and three hydraulic fracturing crews. It plans to add a fourth frac crew near mid-year, Wirth said.

“I don’t think we’ve seen the end of the performance improvement cycle,” Wirth said. Additional productivity gains are possible this year from sharing operating practices with employees of PDC Energy, a company Chevron acquired last year.

Analysts had lowered their earnings and share price estimates in December after setbacks in the Permian and elsewhere. However, the higher shale productivity helped Chevron recover lost ground and end 2023 within its production forecast.

“The quarterly ups and downs on some of these things can create some questions,” Wirth said, but the company “ended the year right on our guidance.

“We’re well positioned not just for 2024, but into 2025 and 2026,” he added.

The productivity gain led Bernstein & Co oil analyst Robert Brackett to question if Chevron’s 2024 production estimates are too conservative.

Reporting by Sabrina Valle; Editing by Leslie Adler

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