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The world is using more oil than ever and demand is outpacing expectations again this year, raising questions about how soon global consumption will peak.

The unabated thirst for crude contributed to an increasingly confident tone from executives at this year’s CERAWeek by S&P Global conference, the industry’s annual get together in Houston, America’s energy capital. Despite the rise of electric vehicles and renewable energy, many attendees who spoke in interviews or on stage at the event this week said they expect consumption to rise for many years to come, dealing a blow to meeting goals to decarbonize the global economy.

“We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas,” said Amin Nasser, the chief executive officer of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest producer. Instead we should “invest in them adequately, reflecting realistic demand assumptions, as long as essential,” he said in a speech applauded enthusiastically by attendees.

Russell Hardy, the CEO of Vitol SA, the biggest global oil trader, told the conference his firm was pushing back the estimated peak in oil consumption to the early 2030s because of downgraded expectations on the adoption of electric vehicles.

The International Energy Agency, guardian of the industrialized world’s energy security, forecasts oil demand will rise 1.3 million barrels a day in 2024. While that’s less than last year’s jump of 2.2 million barrels, when China’s emergence from Covid restrictions juiced consumption, it’s still healthy by historical standards.

The agency, which has had to raise its forecasts several times, now expects daily demand to average a record 103.2 million barrels this year. It points to the strength of the US economy and the extra distance sailed by ships avoiding the Suez Canal as drivers of demand.

But many in the industry think the IEA, which expects global demand to peak before the end of the decade, is too conservative both in the short- and medium-term.

Oil trader Gunvor Group expects an increase of 1.4 million barrels a day this year. Trafigura, another global merchant, says the consensus expectation is about 1.5 million barrels, but argues there are considerable upside risks to that forecast.

“The US economy, in particular, has surprised to the upside,” Saad Rahim, Trafigura’s chief economist, said in an interview. “Oil demand is performing better than expectations.”

The strength of consumption has helped to drive a rally in oil prices — benchmark Brent crude oil futures have risen 11% this year, at one point trading at more than $87 a barrel.

There are areas where demand is especially robust — the rerouting of ships away from the Red sea alone has added 100,000 barrels a day to global demand, according to Vitol. Jet fuel and plastics are also strong drivers.

India is also set to be a major contributor of additional usage. Its government expects the economy will expand 7% in the fiscal year beginning April, making it one of the fastest-growing major economies. The world’s third-biggest oil importer behind China and the US, India is set to be the single largest source of global demand growth between now and 2030, according to the IEA.

“Oil demand has stayed very strong, both in the US and in other countries, both developed countries and emerging markets,” said Helen Currie, chief economist at US oil producer ConocoPhillips. “We’re looking for another record high in world demand this year across the board.”

Until the link between economic growth and rising demand for gasoline, diesel and other oil products can be broken, a peak in crude consumption is likely to remain elusive.

The rise of EVs at the expense of internal combustion engines will be the biggest drag on oil demand in coming years, especially in China. But research from BloombergNEF forecasts EV sales growth will slow in coming years, while the total stock of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles continues to rise.

“We see demand increasing throughout this energy transition,” Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp., said this week, explaining why the Middle East nation plans to expand oil production capacity.

Source: Rigzone.com

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More than two years after climate negotiators first attempted to consign coal to history, the dirtiest fossil fuel is having a moment.

Thanks to a combination of China’s energy insecurity — pushing Beijing back to trusted power sources — plus rising Indian demand, the continued fallout from the war in Ukraine and faltering international programs to wean developing economies off fossil fuels, coal is proving remarkably resilient. Output hit a record last year, and producers are preparing for a future where they will be required for decades yet to balance renewable energy.

Even prices are holding up. While thermal coal is trading at just a fraction of the lofty levels reached in 2022, after Russia’s invasion of its neighbor, prices are still well above historic norms. Benchmark Newcastle coal futures are changing hands just under $130 a ton, roughly a quarter of the peak but higher than any level between 2011 and 2020.

Much of this second wind is down to Asia. In 2000, the International Energy Agency estimated advanced economies accounted for almost half of coal consumption. By 2026, China and India alone will make up more than 70%. Those two heavyweights and Indonesia started operating new coal power plants amounting to 59 gigawatts last year, and either launched or revived proposals for another 131 gigawatts — about 93% of the world’s total, according to Global Energy Monitor.

“You look at Asia, the demand and the build out of coal-fired power plants, particularly in India — coal’s not going anywhere anytime soon,” Rob Bishop, chief executive officer of Australian miner New Hope Corp., said in an interview.

The extended final act will be a vindication for fossil fuel executives, who have long argued against the feasibility of shifting swiftly out of carbon-intensive power, pointing out benefits in terms of reliability and cost. A mention of coal’s buoyancy earned Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser a round of applause at a major energy conference in Houston last week.

It’s less good news for efforts to curb carbon emissions and reach global climate goals.

For years, analysts expected coal production to plateau after it hit a then-record in 2013. Funding, after all, was drying up. Then came 2021, when power shortages in China set Beijing on a path to order more mining to ensure energy security.

In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and blackouts during heatwaves in India further bolstered coal demand. By last year, output had risen to a record 8.7 billion tons, according to the IEA.

That figure is expected to drop this year. But the agency expects it to stabilize through 2026 — in line with industry forecasts of a long goodbye.

Read more: Oil Demand Outpaces Expectations, Testing Calculus on Peak Crude

All of this is visible on the ground. In China, which produces and consumes half the world’s coal, miners are struggling to maintain growth rates after boosting output 21% over the past three years to 4.7 billion tons. Low-cost reserves have mostly been tapped, leading companies to dig deeper, more expensive mines. Fatalities have also started rising after years of declines.

China Shenhua Energy Co., the nation’s largest publicly traded miner, expects its coal output to fall 2.6% this year, while the per-unit cost of mining could rise by about 10%, according to its annual report Friday.

Record Renewables

Record amounts of new solar panels and wind turbines, along with a rebound in hydropower and steadily growing nuclear generation, mean low-carbon energy will likely exceed the growth in electricity consumption, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

But that clean energy will also be coal’s lifeline, said Zhang Hong, deputy secretary-general of the China National Coal Association. Renewable power only generates when weather permits, so even as other baseload options emerge, cheap and reliable coal will still play a role.

“The next 10 to 15 years will remain a crucial strategic window,” Zhang said.

India is the one country where the IEA forecasts coal output to grow this year, with production set to top 1 billion tons for the first time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi needs to meet growing energy demand while reducing reliance on expensive imports. Yet even after a surge in renewables, nuclear, hydropower and other baseload options have fallen short — so coal is expected to remain the dominant source of power at least until the end of this decade.

Meanwhile, Indonesia, the world’s top thermal coal exporter, expects stable production for the next two years. That’s partly to feed surging domestic demand from a booming, power-hungry nickel processing sector, even if lower prices eventually cool enthusiasm.

But it’s also evidence of the difficulty of accelerating the end of coal where economies have newer plants, rising energy demand and an urgent need to create jobs. In 2022, Jakarta agreed to a $20 billion green deal with wealthy governments and financial institutions that would, among other things, close coal power stations early. Coal phaseouts, however, have proved far more challenging than anticipated. Landmark deals remain on the negotiating table.

Coal’s days are numbered, of course. Advances in solar and wind have made those technologies far cheaper than coal power in most parts of the world, and similar gains for batteries and energy storage systems could finally make around-the-clock renewable power affordable enough to transform the energy mix.

But for now, the transition is testing years-long expectations of rapid peaks and subsequent steep declines.

“We see that the world needs more operators to mine coal and support the transition over many decades to come,” New Hope’s Bishop said.

On the Wire

China’s EVE Energy Co. is in advanced talks to invest at least £1.2 billion ($1.5 billion) to build a factory for electric vehicle batteries in the UK, according to The Times.

Sinopec’s annual profits declined 13%, after oil prices fell and Chinese refiners posted a record year for processing and imports.

China’s steel industry is young compared to Europe’s, and its transition to net zero may be slower as it takes a different path to reach government-mandated decarbonization goals, according to BHP Group Ltd.’s Chief Executive Officer Mike Henry.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang downplayed investor concerns of challenges facing the economy, saying Beijing is stepping up policy support to spur growth and systemic risks are being addressed.

The Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing unless noted.)

Monday, March 25:

Sinopec earnings briefing in HK, 15:00
Beijing international hydrogen exhibition, day 1
China Development Forum in Beijing, day 2
EARNINGS: PetroChina, Kunlun Energy, TCL Zhonghuan

Tuesday, March 26:

Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan, day 1
China clean energy expo in Beijing, day 1
Beijing international hydrogen exhibition, day 2
China Photovoltaic Industry Association solar development forum in Beijing
EARNINGS: China Oilfield, BYD, Flat Glass, Datang Renewable, WH Group

Wednesday, March 27:

China industrial profits for Jan.-Feb., 09:30
CCTD’s weekly online briefing on Chinese coal, 15:00
PetroChina earnings briefing in HK, 16:00
Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan, day 2
China clean energy expo in Beijing, day 2
Beijing international hydrogen exhibition, day 3
EARNINGS: Chalco, CGN Power, Tianqi Lithium, Longyuan

Thursday, March 28:

China copper smelters quarterly meeting in Shanghai
Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan, day 3
China clean energy expo in Beijing, day 3
EARNINGS: Maanshan Steel, Angang Steel, Metallurgical Corp., Ganfeng Lithium, Citic Ltd., Cosco Shipping, Yankuang, Goldwind, China Resources Gas

Friday, March 29:

Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan, day 4
China weekly iron ore port stockpiles
Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
EARNINGS: Jiangxi Copper, Shandong Steel

–With assistance from Rajesh Kumar Singh, Kathy Chen and Stephen Stapczynski.

Source: Finance.yahoo.com

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The EU’s recent push to encourage the private sector to step in to finance critical investment – especially through the revival of Capital Market Union (CMU) plans –  is both unrealistic and misguided, experts warned.

On Monday (11 March), European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni suggested that the funds needed for the bloc’s digital and green transitions “will mostly be coming from private resources” – and that these could, in turn, be mobilised through boosting EU CMU plans.

Gentiloni was expanding on comments from the eurozone’s 20 finance ministers that the EU’s long-debated new fiscal rules will require government spending cuts next year, thereby further amplifying European officials’ focus on the private sector as the primary source of strategic investments.

However, Philipp Lausberg, an analyst at the European Policy Centre (EPC), was highly sceptical of legislators’ newly-found enthusiasm for almost decade-old CMU plans.

“It seems like member states have discovered the Capital Markets Union now as a sort of panacea for their investment needs,” he said.

Lausberg noted that it would be a “huge effort” for the EU to agree to deepen the CMU, given the bloc’s “minuscule” progress since plans to consolidate the EU’s single market for capital were first introduced by the Commission in 2015.

Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at Bruegel think-tank, also pointed to the ECB’s assessment last week that “there are no more low-hanging fruits to pick” to further integrate capital markets.

Véron attributed the EU’s resistance to deepening the CMU over the past decade to a “mix of factors”, including “economic nationalism” and the “sheer inertia” of member states’ bureaucracies that “want to protect their existing turf”.

The role of private money

Meanwhile, other analysts criticised the broader implication of legislators’ assumption that private funds should and could replace public investments.

“Private money is different to public money,” said Sebastian Mang, a senior policy officer at London-based think tank New Economics Foundation (NEF).

“Private money needs investments to be financially profitable. And many climate solutions may not be, but have enormous social value in making sure we don’t overshoot planetary boundaries.”

“Public investment is also crucial for ‘crowding in’ private investment,” he added, referring to the theory that government funds can incentivise and trigger private investment.

Mang pointed to the fact that multiple recent studies have concluded that government spending will be crucial for Europe to meet its climate targets.

These include a report published last year by the European Central Bank (ECB) estimating that the bloc will need to allocate the equivalent of between 1 and 1.8% of total EU GDP to additional public investments over the 2021-2030 decade to reach its goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 50% relative to 1990 levels.

“We need massive public investment [for things that span] from targeted industrial policy, to making sure low-income families are able to access green and cost-saving solutions like energy efficiency, to climate adaptation and nature restoration,” Mang said.

Fiscal rules queried

Patricia Velicu, a senior policy adviser at industriALL Europe, which represents seven million employees in Europe’s manufacturing, energy, and mining sectors, expressed dismay at the fact that the fiscal rules mean that member states must financially “tie their hands for absolutely no reason”.

“We are not saying that we should not have any fiscal rules, we are just saying that the current deal […] is not fit for the challenges that our society is facing in Europe,” she said.

Meanwhile, Mang also rebuffed another argument put forward by European Commission vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis at a press conference after the meeting of the bloc’s 27 finance ministers on Tuesday (12 March).

Asked by Euractiv about the restrictive impact of the bloc’s recently-approved fiscal rules on government expenditure, Dombrovskis said that such constraints are necessary to “avoid a situation where fiscal policy would contradict [the ECB’s] monetary policy in its task to reduce inflation”.

“Fiscal stimulus would stimulate inflation more than growth and [entail] corresponding higher financing costs for governments,” he added.

Mang, however, thought the view conveyed by Dombrovskis was misplaced, as green investments will ultimately contribute to long-term price stability.

“If we are able to transition to a new energy grid that is not reliant on fossil fuels, then we will not be as dependent on international fossil fuel price fluctuations, which will help ensure price stability,” he said.

Source: Euractiv.com

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The European Commission requested information on Thursday (14 March) from nine big tech platforms on their use of targeted ads and generative artificial intelligence (AI) to gauge compliance with the Digital Services Act (DSA).

The Commission asked Bing, Google Search, Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok, YouTube and X to provide details regarding their strategies to address risks associated with generative AI, including on elections. It also asked LinkedIn to clarify how it complies with a prohibition not to target ads based on sensitive personal data.

The DSA is “now running at full speed”, Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton posted on X on Thursday.

The DSA, which came into effect on 17 February, mandates specific content moderation measures for platforms with over 10% of the EU population as monthly users. That’s roughly 45 million people. These platforms are deemed to pose a systemic risk to society, so they have to adhere to content moderation protocols, including transparency and risk management obligations.

The EU executive last year released a list of such very large online platforms (VLOPs) and very large search engines (VLOSEs), and has updated it since. All nine platforms under the microscope as of today are on that list.

Targeted ads on LinkedIn

As a VLOP, LinkedIn must ensure users can easily discern details about advertisements and prohibit the use of personal data, such as sexual orientation, political beliefs, or race, for targeted advertising purposes.

The Commission’s investigation into LinkedIn is partly due to civil society organisations, including EDRi, Global Witness, Gesellschaft für Freiheitsrechte, and Bits of Freedom, lodging a complaint with the Commission on 26 February. The organisations expressed concerns over LinkedIn’s possible violation of ad targeting restrictions outlined in the DSA.

A LinkedIn spokesperson told Euractiv that the company is compliant with the DSA, including provisions on targeted ads. “We look forward to cooperating with the Commission on this matter,” the spokesperson added.

Other platforms

The Commission is requesting details and documents from the other eight platforms and search engines on risk assessments and mitigation measures concerning generative AI’s impact on electoral processes, illegal content dissemination, fundamental rights, gender-based violence, minors’ protection, mental well-being, personal data protection, consumer protection, and intellectual property.

The inquiries pertain to both the dissemination and creation of generative AI content.

Generative AI is highlighted as a risk in the Commission’s draft guidelines on electoral process integrity as well, aiming to furnish VLOPs and VLOSEs with best practices and mitigation measures, including those specific to generative AI-related risks.

A Commission representative said at a press briefing on Thursday that the Microsoft-led pledge to combat deceptive use of AI in 2024 elections, announced at the Munich Security Conference, “is welcome, but we in Europe the privilege of having a toolbox with the new rules, in particular with the DSA that we can fully use to ensure election integrity”.

A request for information is an investigative measure and does not predetermine any subsequent actions the Commission may undertake. However, fines can be imposed for providing inaccurate, incomplete, or deceptive information in response to such requests.

The companies have until 5 April to submit data about how generative AI might affect electoral processes. Replies on other matters can be submitted by April 26.

Separately, the Commission today also launched an investigation on whether the online commerce site AliExpress violated the DSA, including for its use of recommendation algorithms.

Source: Euractiv.com

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After tabling just a small part of the promised overhaul of legislation on animal welfare, the Commission told the European Parliament plenary on Thursday (14 March) that a revision must rely on a strategic dialogue with stakeholders.

The Commission committed to a general overhaul of the animal welfare legislation in 2020, with proposals expected at the end of 2023. In the end, the bloc’s executive tabled only proposals for stricter rules on animal transport.

The proposals announced but shelved by the Commission, such as stricter rules on cages, change to slaughter rules, and animal welfare labelling, “will have to be thought through in a sustainable way for the agri-food sector,” with “consultation of stakeholders and a sufficient transition period,” European Commissioner for Cohesion and Reform Elisa Ferreira told  the Parliament’s plenary

At the debate, Ferreira replaced Commissioner Stella Kyriakides, who is in charge of the dossier.

The strategic dialogue launched at the end of January by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be “an ideal forum for these discussions”, she added.

In 2020, the Commission announced a general review of European legislation on animal welfare as part of the Farm to fork strategy.

Although the impact assessment on the proposal passed the Commission’s quality control board last summer, the executive refrained from launching a comprehensive review in the current mandate.

In recent years pressure has grown in the European Parliament and civil society, however, as illustrated by the letter from around a hundred MEPs in September 2023, calling for an urgent review of the legislation, and the European Citizens’ Initiative (ECI) ‘End the Cage Age’, which has collected more than a million signatures.

Strategic dialogue on animal welfare

During the plenary debate, MEPs were split.

“For the past four years, the Commission has been making fine promises that have not been kept […] What are we waiting for to put an end to animal suffering?” asked Niels Fuglsang (S&D/Denmark), calling for “at least a roadmap, a date, a deadline” for the new legislation.

In response to the Commission’s desire to establish a strategic dialogue, Germany’s Martin Häusling (Greens/EFA) conceded that “animal protection, like environmental protection, has a cost, but is the aim to have cheap meat, regardless of animal suffering?”

While some lawmakers called for progress before the European elections in June, others, like Caroline Roose (Greens/EFA), are already banking on the next term of office:

“I’m no longer speaking to the Commission. Citizens, vote for those who will truly defend animals,” the ecologist said.

Ferrera replied reminding MEPs that two “major pieces of legislation” had been proposed last December, one on animal transport and the other on the welfare and traceability of pets.

Romanian Christian Democrat Daniel Buda (EPP) sided with Ferreira. “We need to draft texts in cooperation with farmers and breeders in order to develop an effective and fair policy.

Beata Mazurek (ECR/Poland), warned that in recent months, farmers have taken to the streets also because of the “unrealistic” animal welfare rules.

Other MEPs, affiliated to the far-right ID group, deplored the fact that in some countries ritual slaughter is allowed.

Patricia Chagnon (ID/France) pointed the finger at products imported from third countries, reared in problematic conditions that cause causing animal suffering and unfair competition for farmers.

Harmonising existing rules

According to the Commission, the lack of harmonisation of regulations within the EU is fragmenting the single market and penalising certain farms.

A report by the European Court of Auditors (ECA) published in April 2023 showed that the current rules are applied unevenly, both among member states and regions.

“The appalling images coming out of farms would no longer exist if member states complied with current legislation! It must be enforced,” said Italian MEP Herbert Dorfmann (EPP).

Ferreira emphasided that “farmers need to be able to invest and benefit from all market opportunities, which will go hand in hand with improved animal welfare”.

For Spanish MEP Clara Aguilera (S&D), there is also a territorial injustice. Peripheral regions – such as her region of Andalusia – which have a greater need to transport animals, are more affected by European standards, she said.

The Commission told parliamentarians that it had launched work on compliance with the legislation in force.

Source: Euractiv.com

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European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen is expected to start an “intensive” EU election campaign in May with several “thematic” events across Europe, a source familiar with the matter from the European People’s Party (EPP) headquarters in Brussels told Euractiv.

“It will be an intensive campaign and its hot phase is expected in May,” the source from the conservative EPP said, adding that the Commission chief considers having “at least seven thematic events across the bloc”.

The precise content of these events, the source explained, has not been decided yet.

Euractiv understands that these thematic events will be organised in member states and will be coordinated with the national EPP members from countries where the events will take place.

Topics are likely to touch upon highly political debates and issues close to the voters’ hearts, such as regulating migration, protecting businesses, or safeguarding democracy.

May will be an important month for the incumbent Commission president because most negotiations on legislative files will have finished and von der Leyen will have the space to present her record to the voters.

Von der Leyen, a former German defence minister who was a surprise pick for the Commission chief in 2019, was named the lead candidate of her political family last week during an EPP congress in Bucharest, launching her bid for a second mandate.

Even though the announcement was widely expected, she has yet to start political campaigning across the continent, as the EPP is looking to secure votes to remain the largest political force in the hemicycle after the June’s EU elections, and form strong alliance with other right wing, liberal, and left-wing parties.

Asked if the campaign was being launched late, given that it will leave only a few weeks before the elections on 6-9 June, the source replied that some legal budgetary requirements could not be sorted out before von der Leyen was officially elected as the EPP’s lead candidate on 7 March.

“Von der Leyen wants this campaign to be open to media and have interaction with journalists,” the source added.

The official announcements about people who will lead the campaign will be made in early April, the EPP source said, stressing that it was not yet known who the spokesperson would be.

However, the rumour mill in Brussels points to Jens-Alexander Flosdorff, currently the executive communication adviser in von der Leyen’s cabinet.

The source said von der Leyen’s team will be “multinational” and comprise both people from her inner circle as well as members from the EPP headquarters in Brussels.

Source: Euractiv.com

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Airdrops and a maritime corridor will not be enough to substitute humanitarian aid transported by trucks into Gaza, where people are on the verge of famine, European Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenarčič said on Thursday (14 March).

Land routes remain the “quickest, easiest and most efficient” way to get supplies into Gaza, Lenarčič told a group of reporters, including Euractiv, in Brussels.

“There is no meaningful substitute for land access (…) we call on Israel to open additional land crossings,” he said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Cyprus last week to launch the maritime corridor to Gaza with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides. A number of EU member states including Germany and the Netherlands pledged their intention to support the establishment of the corridor at the time.

It took about four months of diplomatic negotiations, involving the EU, US, UK and other countries, to convince Israel to agree to the maritime corridor.

A shipment organised by US-based charity World Central Kitchen carrying 200 million tons of aid departed from Cyprus to Gaza earlier this week, while future deliveries will be distributed in collaboration with local aid agencies and the Israeli military.

“This corridor, although a welcome addition, can only complement the land routes,” Lenarčič stressed, adding that the sea passage had been set up “exclusively because Israel is not opening more land routes”.

“You cannot in current circumstances provide sufficient supplies by maritime routes or airdrops because there is no real port [in the Gaza Strip],” he said.

The Pentagon this week sent military vessels to the Mediterranean Sea, where US troops will help build a temporary pier and dock to enable the delivery of more aid by sea.

The pier will be an upgrade of the jetty that is currently under construction by World Central Kitchen, a US charity run by the famous Spanish-American chef Jose Andres, Lenarčič said.

Ships using the new route are expected to carry “thousands of tonnes of supplies” a week, Lenarčič said.

But the aid sent by sea is incomparably lower in number than by land, he added, saying that nearly 500 trucks of aid – the equivalent of roughly 10,000 tonnes – are needed in Gaza each day.

Lenarčič also said he “noted with considerable hope” that the UN had declared one of its convoys had reached northern Gaza by land for the first time since 20 February.

“It is our hope and expectation that this route will be expanded to allow a surge in humanitarian aid,” he said.

‘Pockets of famine’

“There is a risk of famine,” Lenarčič, who has recently visited Israel, the Palestinian territories and Jordan, told reporters.

“We already have a very strong and credible indication that there are pockets of famine already in the Gaza Strip,” he added.

Gaza has been effectively sealed off since Israel began its war with Hamas in response to the militant group’s 7 October terrorist attack on the country.

The United Nations estimates more than half a million of Gaza’s 2.3 million people are on the brink of starvation.

Several UN agencies said earlier this month that child malnutrition levels were “particularly extreme” in the northern part of the enclave.

“What is needed is very clear: a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza and its distribution throughout Gaza,” Lenarčič said.

This would need to go hand in hand with “an end of fighting that has to last long enough for humanitarian aid organisations to get in and organise proper distribution,” Lenarčič added.

His comments come as the bloc’s leaders at their summit next week are expected to reiterate their call for an “immediate humanitarian pause leading to a sustainable cease-fire” in the Israel-Hamas war to allow for the delivery of urgent aid into Gaza, according to early draft summit conclusions, seen by Euractiv.

Work should start on a sustained peace process based on the so-called two-state solution — an outcome favoured by the US, Saudi Arabia and others that would allow Palestinians some autonomy, the draft, which is still subject to change, stated.

However, a reference to the EU’s funding of the UN’s main Palestinian relief agency (UNRWA) was met with objections by some EU ambassadors on Wednesday (13 March).

The US, along with more than a dozen countries, suspended its funding to the body in January after Israel accused 12 of the agency’s 13,000 employees in Gaza of participating in the deadly 7 October Hamas terrorist attack.

The UN agency, which runs schools, clinics and other social services in Gaza, and distributes humanitarian aid, “has a critical role to play because it has unmatched infrastructure”, the EU’s humanitarian chief said.

Earlier this month, the European Commission announced it will continue to fund the UN agency as probes continue into the allegations, with a first €50-million tranche out of a total of the €82 million payment foreseen for 2024 to be paid this month.

An independent review of the agency has been launched under former French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, and her final report is expected to be published later this month.

Source: Euractiv.com

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The EU’s Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius is touring Paraguay, Bolivia, and Ecuador this week to address concerns related to the implementation of the world’s first ban on deforestation-linked products, a measure criticised as protectionist by some of the bloc’s trade partners.

The rules, which contribute to EU efforts to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, will affect imports of cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soya, and wood, as well as many derived products like chocolate and leather.

“With the EU Deforestation Regulation entering into application at the end of this year, some of the countries affected are asking for discussions on the details, so I am answering that request,” Sinkevičius told reporters on Wednesday (13 March).

Companies seeking to place their products on the EU market will have to use geolocation data to demonstrate that these do not come from deforested or degraded land after December 2020, with businesses facing fines of up to 4% of their total annual turnover in the EU if they breach the regulation.

According to European Parliament data, the EU’s consumption is responsible for about 10% of global deforestation, of which two-thirds are accounted for by palm oil and soya.

Nevertheless, the groundbreaking legislation has faced fierce criticism from leading producers of these commodities, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brazil, who argue that the EU is leveraging trade policy to impose its green agenda on others.

Concerns have been raised about businesses’ ability to navigate Brussels-imposed bureaucracy in developing countries, as well as about the associated costs of verifying that commodities have not been sourced from deforested land.

Countries oppose “trade-distorting rules”

Sinkevičius will start his trip on 15 March in Paraguay, a country that has been particularly vocal against adopting the new EU regulation.

In an effort to ease the concerns, Sinkevičius is set to underscore the EU’s support in establishing a traceability system to facilitate compliance, partly funded with €10 million from the bloc, in addition to funding from other anti-deforestation initiatives.

“My intention is to calm down any fears about the possible consequences and underline the advantages for all the countries concerned,” Sinkevičius stated.

Paraguay was among the countries that explicitly criticised “unilateral, trade-related environmental measures” that could lead to distortions during last month’s World Trade Organisation ministerial conference in Abu Dhabi.

“As a landlocked developing country, the answer is simple: more trade and less protectionism,” Patricia Frutos, the country’s deputy minister for economy, said in Abu Dhabi.

However, the Lithuanian Commissioner voiced hope that other countries would follow suit and adopt policies similar to the EU’s.

“Right now, it’s the most ambitious piece of legislation on deforestation anywhere in the world, but we hope it doesn’t stay that way – we hope that many other countries will soon follow in its footsteps,” he emphasised.

Potential delays

Sinkevičius acknowledged that the Commission is still finalising the regulation’s details, including a traffic light system to categorise countries based on their risk level of deforestation, which will determine the level of import checks.

The Commissioner declared that they are collaborating with stakeholders on the development of a methodology for benchmarking, aiming for it to be “as objective and transparent as possible.”

“All the work is done in very close cooperation with third countries, and those efforts will continue for as long as they are needed,” Sinkevičius added.

Countries have expressed concerns about the bad reputation associated with a “high risk” label, fearing that it could lead companies to cease operations in these regions or favour large producers over small farmers, who may struggle to comply with the new regulations.

A joint letter sent last September to EU authorities, signed by Indonesia, Brazil, and 15 other countries, described the benchmarking system as “discriminatory and punitive,” with the potential to breach international trade rules.

In the face of the strong criticism, the EU executive appears to be delaying the release of the classification, leaving the decision to the next Commission, which will assume office after the summer, following June’s EU elections.

Reuters reported that the Commission is considering postponing the release of risk ratings until 2025, with all countries being designated a “medium” level of risk until the methodology is implemented.

Source: Euractiv.com

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When I think about the Russian elections, particularly the presidential one taking place this weekend, I cannot help but remember the totalitarian voting in which I participated as a youngster.

We have already argued that Vladimir Putin’s regime should no longer be described as authoritarian: After the brutal aggression against Ukraine, it has degenerated into totalitarianism akin to the Soviet Union, or worse.

I lived what should have been the best years of my life, my youth, under the totalitarian regimes of Bulgaria and Romania (I was a student in Bucharest), and I voted in successive elections in Bulgaria in the 1970s and 1980s.

Of course, these were not real elections. We knew the result in advance, just like now in Russia. The only unknown about these elections is whether Putin will receive 80% or more.

Yet, for some reason, totalitarian regimes mimic democracy by holding elections which mean nothing.

In the case of Russia, it’s Putin who will decide the result. In communist Bulgaria (The People’s Republic of Bulgaria), the leadership of the ruling Communist Party decided what the election result should be – always above 90%.

Most of the alternative votes (and there were not many) went to the Agrarian Party, an ally of the Communist Party. The same is now happening in Russia, where the three other candidates, whose names nobody will remember, are supporters of Vladimir Putin and will receive only a negligible fraction of the votes. Real contenders were not allowed to run.

In Bulgaria, I remember nobody doubting that the Communist Party would win, but the turnout was massive, and most people put on their Sunday best to go to the polling stations.

This was because the regime created an atmosphere of celebration on election day, with flags, music, and flowers all around. Everything was clean, there were no incidents, and even the police were friendly.

While I regularly attracted attention from the authorities due to my long hair, perceived as mimicking the ‘bad influences from the West’, on these occasions, they usually left me alone.

Officially, the sale of alcohol was prohibited on election day and even on the so-called “reflection day” on the eve of the poll. But I remember that despite that, alcohol was freely poured, probably to numb the electorate.

When I read reports about the Russian elections, I sense the same atmospherics created by the authorities.

Reportedly, in Siberia, raffles in which everyone was a winner were organised to motivate voters, who could win fuel wood, gasoline, vacuum cleaners, or even a washing machine – all precious commodities in the vast but poor region.

I had heard rumours that in communist Bulgaria, “enemies of the people” scribbled insults against those in power on the ballot paper (anonymously, of course). Or that some cast a blank ballot as a sign of disagreement.

This is why election committees were carefully selected to maintain utmost secrecy on the scope of this dissent.

No one had an idea how numerous those opposed to the regime were, and even today, there is no information. It was assumed that their number was rather small.

Now that we live in times when social media plays an important role, measuring the size of dissent in Russia could be more possible.

The widow of Russia’s late opposition leader Alexei Navalny has called on voters to turn up at polling stations en masse at noon on Sunday and either vote against Vladimir Putin or spoil their ballot.

The protest action, known as “Noon Against Putin”, honours Navalny’s last wishes following his death in prison in February.

Judging by the number of people who braved the authorities and queued to lay flowers at Navalny’s grave, noon on Sunday is certainly a time to watch.

Another image that illustrates the real nature of Russian elections is the footage coming from the territories illegally annexed by Russia.

Military personnel dressed like robocops bring ballot boxes to people’s houses – supposedly to keep them ‘safe’, as going out may be ‘dangerous’ – but by doing so force residents to vote, grossly violating the secrecy of their ballot.

The elections in communist Bulgaria that I remember were fake, but they weren’t ugly. In contrast, this weekend’s elections in Russia are already hideous.

The elections I remember were the original totalitarianism. Russia’s are probably Totalitarianism 2.0.

Source: Euractiv.com

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Animal welfare is one of those rare issues that is neither left nor right. Across the political spectrum and irrespective of nationality, you’ll always find politicians who care about the plight of animals; it is certainly not the exclusive domain of the Greens and the Left.

Dr. Joanna Swabe is senior director of public affairs for Humane Society International/Europe.

Over the years, I’ve encountered highly conservative right-wing MEPs for whom animal welfare is paramount given their devout religious belief in stewardship, Christian-Democrats who embrace vegetarianism out of concern for farm animal suffering and staunch liberals who pour their hearts into campaigns against wildlife trade.

In too many cases, though, the compassion of politicians towards animals is a bit more selective, in keeping with the Orwellian adage that “all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.” For example, while EPP coryphées recently trumpeted their support for legislative action to end the illegal puppy trade, they and their political group colleagues have proved far less enthusiastic about improving the lot of pigs and poultry kept on Europe’s farms.

Such a lack of willingness of politicians to stick their heads above the political parapet to campaign for better welfare conditions for farm animals is incongruous given the sheer strength of citizen support for animal welfare, not to mention the unequivocal scientific evidence on the necessity of improving the conditions under which farm animals live.

Despite what the ag lobby would have one believe, concern for animal well-being is not the sole preserve of oat-milk latte-drinking urban elites who have never set foot on a farm. Indeed, a poll carried out last year by Savanta in rural communities in ten Member States found that nearly two-thirds of respondents supported the Commission’s Farm to Fork Strategy plans to improve animal welfare during live transport, slaughter and the keeping of animals for economic purposes. Likewise, the 2023 Eurobarometer on attitudes of Europeans to animal welfare confirmed that the vast majority of Europeans (84%) believe that the welfare of farm animals should be better protected.

With so many EU citizens from so many different walks of life voicing concern for animal welfare, the question is why is this not being better translated into political action? Could it be that some political factions are more inclined to kowtow to industry interests than to acknowledge the well-founded concerns of ordinary citizens? Do they fear losing the support of rural voters to populist parties if they deign to back much-needed legislative reforms to improve farm animal welfare?

Or is it purely a matter of political prioritisation? Is this why protecting the welfare and interests of billions of animals kept for economic purposes, not to mention those used in scientific research and product testing, traded as commodities or who live in the wild, often ends up being relegated to the bottom of the pile? Are animals still viewed as a minority or trivial interest despite such pervasive citizen support?

The upcoming European Elections offer a golden opportunity for political parties and prospective MEPs across the board to demonstrate that they are truly taking heed of citizens’ concerns about animal welfare. It is a chance for them to make concrete political commitments to protecting animals and show constituents that this is a political priority.

With the European Commission having failed to fully deliver on its Farm to Fork commitments to adopt legislative proposals to revise and expand the scope of existing EU animal welfare legislation, there is a greater need than ever for politicians from across the political spectrum to rise to the occasion and lead the way toward meaningful change for animals.

Right now, the Commission’s party line is that its undelivered legislative proposals have not permanently been kicked into the long grass, and that the preparatory work for the promised proposals on the welfare of farm animals, including the phase-out of caged confinement to which it committed to in response to the End the Cage Age ECI, is ongoing.

We are told the Commission is assessing whether the transition to cage-free farming is sustainable for the agricultural sector and that further consultations on issues including the costs and length of transition periods are needed. These will apparently take place in the context of the much-hyped new strategic dialogue on the future of agriculture in the EU.

After so much time, these assurances are not really satisfactory for the millions of laying hens still confined to enriched battery cages and the millions of pigs who continue to languish in individual sow stalls for a significant proportion of their gestation and farrowing periods. They should not have to wait any longer for policy makers to take decisive action to provide them – and all the other species farmed for food – with housing systems that meet their complex welfare needs.

It is vital that political parties and electoral candidates in all 27 Member States take up the gauntlet and make the advancement of protection for animals a key priority for the 10th Parliamentary Term. This is why animal organisations throughout the Union are pushing hard to situate animal protection as an electoral issue, and developing policy asks that would meaningfully help to safeguard the welfare of animals in the EU. One such example is Humane Society International/Europe’s manifesto specifically crafted to assist policymakers in fostering a more compassionate and ethical society.

In its 2024-2029 term, the European Parliament must provide a strong political voice for voiceless animals, and exert pressure on President von der Leyen to deliver on this Commission’s unmet animal welfare commitments before the end of its mandate. At the same time, it must take steps to ensure that the successive Commission leadership pursues decisive policy action to better protect animals not just on farms, but also in laboratories and in the wild.  Action, not further deliberation, is the need of the moment, and the need of the future.

Source: Euractiv.com

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