Oil forecasters predict Saudi Arabia, Russia to extend 1 MMbpd production cut into 2024

Energy News Beat

(Bloomberg) – As oil prices languish near a three-month low, forecasters are already predicting that Saudi Arabia won’t sit idle.

The OPEC+ leader is likely to extend its 1 MMbpd production cut — introduced over the summer — into next year, according to analysts at UBS Group AG, FGE, Commerzbank AG and Eurasia Group. RBC Capital Markets says it looks increasingly likely.

Extension “is now very probable, given that the oil market would otherwise risk seeing a high supply surplus in the first half of next year,” Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch said in a report on Friday.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman insisted this week that global oil demand remains healthy, blaming Brent crude’s slide to $80 a bbl on a “ploy” by speculators. World inventories are tight, and data from top consumers like the U.S., China and India appears robust.

Nonetheless, with no impact on Middle East oil exports from the conflict between Israel and Hamas, traders are shifting focus to worrying macroeconomic indicators, like the disappointing trade figures released by China this week.

Prolonged action from the Saudis, and presumably their fellow OPEC+ leader Russia, ought to limit further price downside, the analysts say. The 23-nation OPEC+ alliance is due to meet on Nov. 26.

If that doesn’t suffice, RBC’s commodities strategist Helima Croft suggests that Riyadh could squeeze supplies further to scare off short sellers. “We see no indication that the Saudi energy minister is prepared to throw in the towel,” she writes.

In fact, rising supplies from other producers like Guyana, Brazil and the U.S. may mean the kingdom’s strategy faces a very long haul: S&P Global Inc. believes the Saudis will be forced to continue the cuts all the way into 2025.

Source: Worldoil.com

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Oil and gas industry jittery as EU nears deal on methane leakage

Energy News Beat

Oil and gas producers warn the EU’s draft methane regulation will be impossible to implement in its current form as legislators near completion of draft new rules to crack down on methane leaks from fossil fuels.

Methane can leak from fossil fuel infrastructure during extraction, transport, or storage, and it has more than 80 times the global warming power of CO2 in the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere.

Tabled in December 2021, the EU’s draft regulation aims to reduce methane leaks from the energy sector and obliges the industry to detect and repair all methane-leaking components.

Representatives from the 27 EU member states and the European Parliament are meeting in Brussels on Tuesday (14 November) for a potentially decisive round of talks to finalise the methane rules.

But the International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (IOGP) said it was “extremely concerned” about the regulation, saying some requirements in the draft EU rules “rely on technologies that do not exist”.

“The EU Methane Regulation is at risk of being impossible to implement by the European oil and gas industry because of certain requirements that are disconnected from reality,” said Nareh Terzian, head of strategy and communications at IOGP Europe.

Campaigners, for their part, sing a different tune. “As the world’s largest natural gas importer, the EU can no longer outsource pollution while claiming climate leadership,” warns the European division of the Environmental Defense Fund, a US-based green advocacy group.

“Because it stays in our atmosphere for less time, reducing methane is one of the fastest and most efficient ways to slow global warming and stabilise our climate. But we must act now,” EDF said.

Remaining issues: imports and repair

The EU talks, scheduled on Tuesday evening, will focus on remaining issues, such as tackling methane from imported oil and gas and repairing infrastructure leakage.

But the proposed threshold for leak detection and repair, as suggested by the European Parliament, is “disproportionate and nonsensical,” Terzian warned.

Parliament says repairs must be undertaken as soon as methane leaks reach 1 gramme per hour, a threshold ten times stricter than the original proposal tabled by the European Commission.

EU member states, for their part, pulled in the opposite direction by diluting the Commission’s proposal ten times, resulting in proposed thresholds that range from 1 to 100.

The two diverge on underground and underwater thresholds, with Parliament three times as ambitious as EU countries.

The two sides must agree on an identical text before the law can be approved.

There are also tricky details to iron out, like the distancing of sensors from potential leaks or the specifications of leak-detection systems, which may determine the final shape of the EU’s methane regulation.

EU countries want detectors to be placed “as close as possible” to leaks on the surface, while underground leakage shall be detected once the methane hits the air. For all other set-ups, like drilling below the seabed, the “best commercially available” systems should be used, EU countries recommend.

This fits with the industry’s demands. Stricter obligations for sub-sea tracking, as put forward by the European Parliament, should be scrapped “because there are no technologies to quantify the leaks in a subsea environment in a consistent manner,” IOGP insists.

The draft EU law also cracks down on methane flaring and venting, where gas is either burned for safety reasons or simply released into the atmosphere.

EU countries are asking companies to be 99% efficient in their flaring, up from the 98% standard today.

The European Parliament wanted to make this increase in efficiency mandatory from 2026, forcing producers to replace all the relevant parts in their operations. This was rejected by EU countries, who argue that upgrading replacement parts should suffice.

According to IOGP, upping efficiency to 99% would require “the replacement of numerous flare stacks”, which would “very likely lead to a net negative environmental impact.”

Imports

A key battlefield during negotiations relates to EU rules on methane leakage from imported oil and gas, an issue commonplace in countries like Russia, Ukraine, or Azerbaijan with ageing infrastructure.

Two main issues are at stake: how best to track methane emissions associated with energy imports and when to begin cracking down on the worst offenders.

Repairing leaky infrastructure largely pays for itself, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which estimates that 260 billion cubic metres of gas were wasted in 2021 in this way – almost half of the global LNG market – at a time when the world was going through a global energy crunch.

“The bloc’s external ‘methane footprint’ is up to 8 times higher than its domestic emissions, and worse still, we know through scientific measurements that in most places, emissions are underreported,” the EDF added.

However, the 2022 energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine war is still fresh in the minds of lawmakers, who are wary of slapping sanctions on gas-exporting countries that offer an alternative to Russian gas.

Parliament wants strict reporting standards limited to the framework of the OGM 2.0 partnership – the UN’s flagship methane tracker, which counts many European companies among its members.

The industry demands this requirement be loosened, a stance similar to those adopted by countries represented in the Council of the EU.

On crackdown aspects, both the Council and Parliament agree that methane leakage thresholds should be based on previously tracked data.

But when the provisions should come into force is still debatable. Oil and gas contracts are often agreed for decades, such as those passed by Austrian companies, which are contractually obliged to receive gas deliveries from Russia until 2040.

Parliament wants the standards imposed on all oil and gas exported into the bloc from 2027. EU countries are eyeing the early 2030s for contracts agreed upon after the law enters into force, a stance similar to the demands of IOGP.

Spain, which currently holds the EU’s rotating Council presidency, tabled a compromise amendment to avoid watering down the law entirely.

In the document, seen by Euractiv, Madrid urged EU countries to give in on timing and add a special provision allowing the EU to block fossil fuel imports during “super emitting events” like pipeline explosions.

Source: Euractiv.com

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Uptick in LNG demand in Asia, Europe insufficient to drive prices

Energy News Beat

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 13 (Reuters) – Rising demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the top importing regions of Asia and Europe hasn’t been enough to spark an increase in spot prices, which continue to languish.

The price of spot LNG for delivery to north Asia slipped to $16.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week to Nov. 10, down from $17.00 the prior week.

The price has dropped for three consecutive weeks, but is still higher than the recent low of $13.50 per mmBtu for the seven days to Oct. 6.

The usual pattern for the spot price in Asia is a rally into the northern winter followed by a decline in the lower demand shoulder season ahead of summer.

However, prices have so far failed to get their usual seasonal bump as demand remains relatively subdued and supply is more than adequate, especially from the United States.

Asia’s imports of LNG are forecast to rise to 22.67 million metric tons in November from October’s 21.18 million, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

The November figure will also be a slight increase from the 21.41 million metric tons from the same month last year.

Much of the increase in Asia’s imports of the super-chilled fuel comes from China, the world’s second-biggest buyer, with Kpler estimating arrivals of 5.67 million metric tons in November, up from 5.41 million in October, but still below the 6.12 million from November 2022.

Japan, the world’s biggest LNG importer, is expected to see arrivals of 5.41 million metric tons in November, unchanged from October and slightly down from 5.65 million in November last year.

India, Asia’s fourth-biggest LNG buyer, is expected to import 1.3 million metric tons in November, down from 1.85 million in October.

India is viewed as a price-sensitive buyer and the rally in the spot price from the early October low to a high of $17.90 per mmBtu in the week to Oct. 20 most likely dulled appetite for spot cargoes.

LNG imports by Asia, Europe vs spot Asia price

EUROPE GAINS

Europe’s imports of LNG are expected to rise in November to 10.12 million metric tons, up from 9.50 million in October and the strongest month since May, according to Kpler.

However, Europe’s November arrivals are expected to be below the 11.76 million metric tons from the same month in 2022.

Europe turned to LNG in the wake of the loss of much of its pipeline supply of natural gas from Russia after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

A combination of demand destruction and high LNG imports up until May this year has resulted in Europe’s gas inventories reaching 99.6% full, meaning there is reduced need for additional LNG.

A colder-than-usual winter may drain inventories, but even in this scenario it’s unlikely Europe would have to call for additional LNG until January or February.

Europe is buying more LNG from the United States, which is able to offer lower prices than other major exporters such as Qatar because of a surplus of domestic gas output.

Europe’s imports of U.S. LNG are expected to reach 5.45 million metric tons in November, up from 3.98 million in October, and the highest since April.

More U.S. LNG is also heading to Asia, with November imports slated at 1.97 million metric tons, up from 1.83 million in October.

While there are some supply concerns such as potential new sanctions on Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 project and an electrical fault at Chevron’s Gorgon plant in Western Australia, these are not enough to alter the comfortable supply outlook.

This leaves the spot price at the mercy of demand, and while there has been some uptick in both Asia and Europe, it hasn’t been enough to drive spot prices higher.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters

Source: Reuters.com

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China LNG deals come at an environmental cost

Energy News Beat

China’s LNG deal-making has been gaining momentum, even amid international calls to pull back on gas development due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and methane leakage problems.

Chinese gas importers have increased long-term LNG contracts with both Qatar and the U.S., the world’s second and third largest LNG exporters, by nearly 50 percent since late 2022. These contracts account for some 40 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new LNG supply, according to Reuters figures. Chinese gas importers also plan to ink more long-term LNG deals with Oman, Canada and Mozambique.

China’s LNG imports also increased markedly over the past seven years, with only a brief pull back last year. Imports shot up from 72,800 million cubic metres (mcm) in 2016 to an all-time high of 162,820 mcm in 2021. In 2022, that number dropped to some 145,249 mcm.

Going forward, Chinese companies are expected to contract LNG supply of more than 100 mtpa by 2026, representing a surplus of up to 8 mtpa that year.

China’s gas importers are also starting up or expanding trading desks in London and Singapore. This is increasing China’s power as a major secondary LNG trader on the spot market in both Asia and Europe.

China goes long on LNG

China is the world’s second largest LNG importer, after conceding the top slot to Japan in 2021 due to economic contraction from the Covid-19 pandemic. It’s also the world’s third largest gas user (both LNG and pipeline gas), after the U.S. and Russia.

By 2022, gas made up 8.49 percent of China’s primary energy mix. This marks a decline from 8.67 percent in 2021, but a steady increase over the previous ten years. Gas made up only 3.75 percent of its energy mix in 2010 and 8.11 percent in 2020.

This increase comes in large part from China’s so-called coal-to-gas switching plan to try to reduce emissions, namely in its major urban centres.

The government meanwhile has been touting its ability to lower urban CO2 emissions in some 38 cities, despite growing economies and populations in these cities for the past five years. A further 21 cities have lowered emissions as their respective economies or populations have declined over the same period.

Beijing, for example, China’s capital and one of its most polluted cities, is an example. It has seen improved air quality since at least 2013, with particulate matter (PM) 2.5 levels dropping over that time period, according to an Atlantic Council report. LNG usage played a large part in emissions reductions, in addition to more pipeline gas being used.

As such, the Chinese government has also claimed that it’s on its way to reach over-all peak emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2060. State-run news agency Xinhua said recently that China is “pressing ahead on a green development path, it has made every effort to live up to its promises.”

However, these findings have to be put in context: China has 10 cities with over 10 million people, 21 cities with over five million residents, and a staggering 145 cities with over a million people. Its top three most populated cities are: Shanghai (24.5 million people), Beijing, (22.5 million) and Guangzhou, (19.8 million).

Moreover, while emissions in several Chinese cities have dropped, the country’s total emissions continued to spike over roughly the same time period, increasing from 10,011 million metric tons (MMT) in 2017 to 11,472 MMT in 2021.

“China’s CO2 emissions are still increasing and have returned to record levels,” a Carbon Brief report said. Emissions grew 10 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, rising approximately 1 percent above the record levels seen in 2021, it added. These emissions spikes come as the country opened up after more than two years of on-and-off again strict Covid-19 lockdowns over much of the country.

Climate impact

Rob Rozansky, an LNG analyst at Global Energy Monitor, told Gas Outlook that “switching from coal to gas power probably improves local air quality, but gas-fired power still produces harmful emissions linked to health impacts and premature deaths.”

The problem with gas is that it still emits at least half of the CO2 as does coal when used in power production. Moreover, methane leaks occur at every part of the gas value chain.

This includes from the well-head, during transportation along pipelines, at power plants, and also in the homes and businesses where gas is burned. Added to the fray, methane is more than 25 times as potent as CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) analysis.

Rozansky added that GHG emissions reductions from coal-to-LNG switching in China “are probably light at best, while a fleet of new LNG-fired power plants, built to operate for decades, would be out of step with international climate goals.”

Factoring in the entire LNG life cycle, and with methane gas leaks throughout the entire LNG supply chain and since methane is such a powerful GHG emitter, LNG has “an outsized climate impact,” Rozansky explained.

Moreover, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recent update to its Net Zero by 2050 scenario found that gas consumption for the power sector should begin to decline this decade, and that oil and gas consumption combined should be 20% lower by 2030 than it is today.

Source: Gasoutlook.com

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ENB # 151 Steve Reese How will we survie the energy crisis? You would be surprised.

Energy News Beat

Steve Reese is the CEO of Reese Consulting and Reese Training and has significantly impacted the natural gas market for decades. He worked on over 5% of the United States’ natural gas market through his auditing, training classes, and consulting firm.

We need training for the next generation, and his newest projects with exporting LNG to Germany is critical for energy security for both countries.

Please sit back and enjoy listening to my friend and fellow Okie. Steve, thanks for stopping by the podcast. I am looking forward to NAPE!

Also connect with Steve on his LinkedIn HERE: https://www.linkedin.com/in/steve-reese-185a86/

Reese Consulting HERE: https://www.reeseenergyconsulting.com/

00:00 – Intro

01:31 – Steve Reese, CEO of Reese Consulting and Reese Training, shares his 42-year background in the natural gas industry.

04:21 – Reese transitions to online natural gas courses with Energy Rogue, offering affordable pricing and subscriptions, prioritizing youth education, and addressing green energy trends through monthly Q&A sessions.

09:58 – Explores the energy industry’s shift to LNG, challenges in offshore wind projects, the positive role of natural gas, and Texas’ focus on diverse energy sources, highlighting pragmatic hybrid solutions.

15:46 – Launches American Gas Partners, a German-owned fund supporting U.S. shale gas export to Europe, addressing economic challenges from high electricity prices in Germany, emphasizing LNG’s environmental and economic benefits.

21:50 – Highlights American Gas Partners’ unique investment opportunity, a German-owned LNG infrastructure fund with dual benefits of returns and lower gas prices for European end-users, especially in affected sectors like fertilizer production.

24:33 – Discusses LNG ventures, emphasizing economic and environmental advantages of U.S. shale gas in Europe and noting a shift in investment perspectives within the energy industry.

27:32 – Contact information for Steve Reese.

29:06 – Outro

 

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Chevron working to resume full Gorgon LNG production after electrical incident

Energy News Beat

Chevron’s unit in Australia is working to return to full production from its Gorgon LNG plant in Western Australia following an electrical incident affecting one of the plant’s three trains.

The Gorgon LNG plant on Barrow Island has three trains and a production capacity of some 15.6 mtpa.

“The incident occurred about 1.30am AWST on Tuesday, October 31, in a substation which provides power supply,” a Chevron Australia spokesperson told LNG Prime on Thursday.

“Personnel were not in the substation at the time of the incident, and no one was harmed,” the spokesperson said.

According to Chevron’s spokesperson, the production train is currently producing at “about 80 percent capacity.”

“Domestic gas and the remaining two LNG production trains at Gorgon are unaffected and are producing at full rates,” the spokesperson said.

Chevron and its workers at the Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG terminals recently agreed on new labor agreements following lengthy negotiations between Chevron and unions representing the workers.

In September, Chevron also resumed full production at its 8.9 mtpa Wheatstone LNG terminal near Onslow after a fault reduced about 25 percent of the plant’s production.

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Inpex shipped 96 Ichthys LNG cargoes in January-September

Energy News Beat

Japan’s Inpex has shipped 96 LNG cargoes from its Ichthys export plant in Australia during the January-September period of this year, 16 cargoes more compared to the same period last year.

A spokesman for Inpex told LNG Prime on Thursday that the Ichthys project also sent 17 plant condensate cargoes, 22 offshore condensate cargoes, and 25 LPG cargoes during the first nine months of this year.

This compares to 80 LNG cargoes, 15 plant condensate cargoes, 20 offshore condensate cargoes, and 24 LPG cargoes during the January-September period in 2022.

The Ichthys LNG terminal shipped 65 LNG cargoes in the first half of this year. This means that the plant shipped 31 LNG cargoes in the third quarter of this year.

The spokesman said that Inpex has shipped 16 Ichthys LNG cargoes more in January-September this year “in part due to the shutdown maintenance we performed last year.”

“Also, we continue to work towards achieving a stable output of 9.3 mtpa,” the spokesman said.

The facility at Bladin Point near Darwin has two trains and a nameplate capacity of 8.9 mtpa but it is expected to reach a production of about 9.3 mtpa this year due to debottlenecking.

Earlier this year, the Japanese firm said that it plans to ship record 132 cargoes of LNG, or 11 per month, from the Ichthys plant in 2023.

Ichthys LNG is a joint venture between operator Inpex and major partner TotalEnergies.

Also, other partners include Australian units of CPC, Tokyo Gas, Osaka Gas, Kansai Electric Power, Jera, and Toho Gas.

Natural gas arrives to the LNG plant at Bladin Point from the giant Ichthys field offshore Western Australia via an 890 kilometers long export pipeline.

Inpex sent this year the 500th cargo of LNG from its Ichthys terminal since the start of operations in 2018.

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US LNG exports drop to 23 cargoes

Energy News Beat

US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports decreased in the week ending November 9 compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The agency said in its weekly natural gas report that 23 LNG carriers departed the US plants between November 2 and November 8, six vessels less compared to the week before.

Moreover, the total capacity of these LNG vessels is 86 Bcf, the EIA said, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance.

Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals declined by 0.7 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 13.9 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 1.7 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 8.6 Bcf/d.

The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas declined by 0.9 percent (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to 4.1 Bcf/d.

Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast increased 8.4 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 1.2 Bcf/d.

Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped eight cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent three shipments during the week under review.

The Freeport LNG terminal and Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass each shipped four cargoes, while Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal dispatched three LNG cargoes.

Also, the Cove Point plant sent one cargo during the week. The Elba Island LNG terminal did no ship cargoes during the week under review.

This report week, the Henry Hub spot price decreased 98 cents from $3.19 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.21/MMBtu this Wednesday, the agency said.

The price of the December 2023 NYMEX contract decreased 38.8 cents, from $3.494/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.106/MMBtu this Wednesday, the EIA said.

According to the agency, the price of the 12-month strip averaging December 2023 through November 2024 futures contracts declined 19.9 cents to $3.306/MMBtu.

The agency said that international natural gas futures declined this report week.

Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia decreased 36 cents to a weekly average of $17.46/MMBtu.

Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF decreased 73 cents to a weekly average of $14.63/MMBtu.

In the same week last year (week ending November 9, 2022), the prices were $27.91/MMBtu in East Asia and $33.95/MMBtu at TTF, the EIA said.

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Canada’s Pieridae ditches Goldboro LNG export plans

Energy News Beat

Canada’s Pieridae Energy said it will sell its Goldboro unit as part of its strategic pivot away from LNG.

The company has been trying to develop the Goldboro LNG export project for years, including via a floating LNG (FLNG) option.

Back in 2020, Pieridae negotiated extensions of the key deadlines under its long-term deal with Germany’s Uniper.

The firm said in August 2021 it may develop an FLNG project after it failed to make a final investment decision on the company’s $10 billion onshore LNG export development.

Pieridae had previously planned to build an onshore facility with two 5.2 mtpa trains.

The company announced on November 8 that it has initiated a process to sell its Goldboro unit and associated assets, licenses and permits, highlighted by 267 acres of undeveloped coastal industrial land in Nova Scotia.

The firm purchased this land to accommodate the onshore LNG export terminal.

This process is expected to conclude in the first half of 2024 and, once complete, will mark the conclusion of Pieridae’s strategic pivot away from east coast LNG toward an Alberta-focused natural gas production and processing business, it said.

Any cash proceeds from the sale of Goldboro will be used to repay existing indebtedness, in particular the company’s bridge term loan, the firm said.

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Glenfarne’s Texas LNG picks Baker Hughes tech, delays FID to 2024

Energy News Beat

Glenfarne Group’s Texas LNG has selected Baker Hughes to supply gas compression technology equipment, including electric motor drives, for its planned 4 mtpa LNG export terminal.

As part of the partnership between Texas LNG and Baker Hughes, the latter also has a framework agreement to make a strategic pre-FID investment in the project’s late-stage development, according to a statement by Texas LNG issued on Thursday.

The agreement with Baker Hughes facilitates Texas LNG’s “green by design” approach, which intends to use abundant sources of locally procured renewable energy to power the facility and drive the plant’s electric motors, the LNG terminal developer said.

This “green-ready” infrastructure allows Texas LNG to eliminate most CO2 emissions to less than half of a typical LNG export project, making it one of the “lowest-emitting liquefaction facilities in the world,” it said.

Texas LNG said in April that it expects to take a final investment decision to build its LNG export project this year following an order by the US FERC.

FERC issued an order on remand to the planned export terminal in the Port of Brownsville, Texas, owned by Glenfarne Energy Transition’s Texas LNG, following the completion of an additional social cost of carbon and environmental justice analysis.

Last year, the firm said it expected to take FID to build the facility in 2022 and to start commercial operations in 2026.

The developer of the plant also appointed a joint venture of Technip Energies USA and Samsung Engineering to lead the delivery of the facility.

“Texas LNG will close its project financing in 2024 with construction commencing shortly thereafter,” the firm said on Thursday.

Texas LNG said the equipment order is expected to be granted in conjunction with financial close of the project.

The first LNG exports from Texas LNG are expected to be shipped in late 2027 or early 2028, it said.

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