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LONDON : Oil benchmarks were on track for a seven-week decline on Friday, their first in half a decade, on worries about a supply surplus and weak Chinese demand, though prices rebounded after Saudi Arabia and Russia lobbied OPEC+ members to join output cuts.

Brent crude futures were up US$1.46, or 2per cent, at US$75.51 a barrel at 1431 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up US$1.33, or 1.9per cent, to US$70.67 a barrel. Brent had earlier risen by US$2.

Both benchmarks slid to their lowest since late June in the previous session, a sign that many traders believe the market is oversupplied. Brent and WTI are also in contango, a market structure in which front-month prices trade at a discount to prices further out.

OPEC+’s “weakening position in providing support coupled with record high US production and sluggish Chinese crude oil import figures can only mean one thing: there is an abundance of oil available, which is neatly reflected in the contangoed structure of the two pivotal crude oil benchmarks,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM in a note.

Friday’s gains, meanwhile, are a “correction and nothing else,” Varga said.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s two biggest oil exporters, on Thursday called for all OPEC+ members to join an agreement on output cuts for the good of the global economy, only days after a fractious meeting of the producers’ club.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to a combined 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in output cuts for the first quarter of next year.

“Despite OPEC+ members’ pledges, we see total production from OPEC+ countries dropping by only 350,000 bpd from December 2023 into January 2024,” said Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler.

Some members of OPEC+ may not adhere to their commitments due to muddied quota baselines and dependence on hydrocarbon revenues, Katona said.

Brent and WTI crude futures are on track to fall 4.4per cent and 4.7per cent for the week, respectively, their biggest losses in five weeks.

Fuelling the market’s downturn, Chinese customs data showed its crude oil imports in November fell 9per cent from a year earlier as high inventory levels, weak economic indicators and slowing orders from independent refiners weakened demand.

In the United States, output remained near record highs of more than 13 million bpd, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday. [EIA/S]

Stronger-than-expected U.S. job growth and a drop in the unemployment rate signalled resilience in the labor market, U.S. Labor Department data showed on Friday. That has dampened hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by early next year, and could weigh on markets.

In Nigeria, the Dangote oil refinery is set to receive its first cargo of 1 million barrels of crude oil later on Friday, the start of operations that, when fully running at 650,000 barrels a day, would turn the OPEC member into a net exporter of fuels after having been almost totally reliant on imports.

(Reporting by Paul Carsten in London and Stephanie Kelly and Muyu Xu; Editing by Tom Hogue and Mark Potter)

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The official numbers have been crunched at long last, and there is now a definitive answer to how much more Rocky Mountain Power rates will be for at least the first part of its two-part rate increase requests.

According to an email from the Wyoming Public Service Commission to Cowboy State Daily, decisions made in the case have resulted in an 8.3% rate hike instead of the requested 21.9%.

That is far less than the half that media had earlier reported, relying on calculations from unnamed sources.

The 8.3% rate increase will mean $53.9 million for Rocky Mountain Power, versus $137 million, according to the email. It’s an overall average increase over current rates, which goes into effect Jan. 1.

Rocky Mountain Power officials confirmed the figures sent to Cowboy State Daily are correct.

“Our request was based on sound effective evidence submitted of the prudent actions taken to provide service to Wyoming customers,” Rocky Mountain Power spokesman David Eskelsen told Cowboy State Daily. “We’ll review the commission’s final written order, then determine our next steps.”

The decrease was the result of 25 pages of decisions the Wyoming Public Service Commission made after a complicated rate case that included seven days of testimony from 29 witnesses, 400-some exhibits and more than 5,000 comments from an irate public.

What that rate increase is going to mean on an average consumer’s bill will be part of the PSC’s final written order, once it has been filed. That is due no later than Dec. 29, after which the rates will be effective on Jan. 1.

The Two-Part Rate Increase Continues

The 21.9% rate increase Rocky Mountain Power had sought was just part one of a two-part rate increase request.

It’s what is known as a general rate case, which happens every two or three years.

In a general rate case, the company goes before the Public Service Commission to make its case that things have changed in the energy market and base rates need to increase so that the company can keep pace and continue to provide reliable power.

The second part of Rocky Mountain’s rate increase request is for a 7.6% energy adjustment, which seeks to “true up” estimated energy costs with what actually happened out in the real world.

Wyoming Public Service Commissioners will take that up next, on Dec. 19.

Together, the two rate increases amounted to an almost a 30% hike. That led to outrage from the general public and drew five intervenors to the case, some of whom went so far as to run their own figures through Rocky Mountain’s Aurora model, in a successful effort to cast doubt on Rocky Mountain’s contention that its new base rate should rise by almost 22%.

A Door Is Still Open

While Wyoming consumers may be breathing a sigh of relief that the commission has not approved a 21.9% increase, it may be too soon to relax.

The Wyoming Public Service Commission is bound by law to ensure rates are just and reasonable, but, as an integral part of that, it cannot really reject any “prudently incurred” costs either.

That gives Rocky Mountain Power options in the future, something that Wyoming Public Service Commission Chair Mary Throne pointed out during the commission’s deliberations.

While commissioners weren’t convinced by the company’s energy software models, known as Aurora, Throne said the company could still file future requests for adjustments on any of the decisions the commission has made in the case, if it can definitively prove the commission made a mistake.

Affordability Was The Key Word

While renewables were a big bone of contention during the case, affordability was the biggest issue throughout the seven-day rate case hearing, with people from all walks of life telling the Wyoming Public Service Commission they could not afford such a drastic rate increase all at once.

Wyoming AARP Director Sam Shumway told Wyoming Public Service Commissioners that everyone in Wyoming is already dealing with hyperinflation, and a 30% rate increase at such a time would only feed a vicious upward cycle.

“Folks are dealing with how they’re going to pay for increases in gas prices, in the cost of health care, in the cost of medicine, in the cost of groceries, in the cost of property taxes, and are now being faced with a 30% increase in their power bills,” he said at the time. “And maybe more than that, depending on how this impacts businesses, who are going to have to pass that increase on to the consumer.”

Wyoming Petroleum Association President Pete Obermueller, meanwhile, talked about how the rate increase would clobber Wyoming’s oil and gas production.

As much as one-third of Wyoming’s oil production are small mom and pop producers, he told commissioners. While their production might be 2% or less individually, they number almost 400 companies, making their collective contribution to state tax revenues quite significant.

Even students got in on the act, with University of Wyoming’s Maggie Immen turning up in an eagle costume.

She had wanted to make a point about eagles and wind towers, but her main talking point was how the rate increase would wallop students like herself and make Wyoming less attractive to college students already struggling to get by.

“I have spoken to small business owners as well,” Immen said, “and they’re at a point where they can barely afford it as well. What happens when small businesses can’t afford it? What happens when electric bills and the cost of living become so high that people aren’t coming to Wyoming for college any more or the fact that it’s a more affordable life?”

Wyoming Industrial Energy Customers, meanwhile, had advocated for a much tighter $14.9 million increase, while Wyoming Office of Consumer Advocate had calculated a $60 million per annum increase, roughly 10% a year, as fair and reasonable. Both companies used Rocky Mountain Power’s Aurora model to craft their own recommendations for the rate increase.

With 8.3% , Wyoming Public Service Commissioners seem to have landed on a middle ground between those two organizations.

Source: Cowboystatedaily.com

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27 EU member ministers agreed at a meeting this week that nuclear power should be included in the list of acceptable strategic technologies.
With this new position, the number of strategic net-zero technologies available to members increases from 8 to 10.
The Net-Zero Industry Act is the foundation of the EU’s push to reduce greenhouse gases.

Nuclear power is indeed a strategic net-zero technology that the European Union should endorse on the bloc’s way toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, EU member governments agreed on Thursday.

27 EU member ministers agreed at a meeting this week that nuclear power—and sustainable alternative fuels that include e-fuels—should be included in the list of acceptable strategic technologies. The council’s position on the matter was announced on Thursday and was made to allow EU industry to compete with Chinese and U.S. competitors in its aim to achieve climate neutrality and facilitate the energy transition.

The decision—part of the Net-Zero Industry Act–was a controversial one, with some EU members shunning nuclear power, and e-fuels going against an EU law that aims to put an end to sales of CO2-emitting cars starting in 2035.

The Act lays out a benchmark for achieving 40% of production to cover the European Union’s needs in strategic tech products, like heat pumps, wind turbines, solar panels, and EV batteries. The Act also sets a target of at least 50 million tonnes of CO2 captured per year by 2030.

With this new position, the number of strategic net-zero technologies available to members increases from 8 to 10, and the two newcomers to the list will be subject to streamlined permitting procedures that are capped at 18 months and receive crowd-in investments, all while meeting EU and international requirements.

The Net-Zero Industry Act is the foundation of the EU’s push to reduce greenhouse gases and will require public authorities conducting tenders to consider sustainability criteria when awarding contracts for net-zero and must ensure that no more than 65% of EU demand is supplied from a single source.

Source: Oilprice.com

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The Fed has now shed 29% of Treasuries it had added during pandemic QE starting in March 2020.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The Fed’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) continues on track, and the unwinding of the March bank-panic measures took a leap forward as the FDIC paid off the rest of its loans from the Fed.

Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $129 billion in November, to $7.74 trillion, the lowest since April 2021, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. Since peak-QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $1.228 trillion of its total assets. The closeup view:

From crisis to crisis to raging inflation: 

During QT #1 between November 2017 and August 2019, the Fed’s total assets dropped by $688 billion, but inflation was below or at the Fed’s target (1.8% core PCE in August 2019). At the time, the Fed was just trying to “normalize” its balance sheet.

Now inflation is still doing a lot of heavy breathing in services, though energy prices have plunged and durable goods prices have ticked down. Within the Fed’s favored PCE price index, core services inflation is still burning at a rate of 4.6%. Within CPI, core services inflation is still burning at 5.5%.

QT marches on.

Treasury securities: -$60 billion in November, -$959 billion from peak in June 2022, to $4.81 trillion, the lowest since February 2021.

The Fed has shed 29.3% of the $3.27 trillion in Treasury securities that it had added since March 2020 as part of its pandemic QE.

Treasury notes (2- to 10-year securities) and bonds (20- & 30-year securities) “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month or at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value for them. The roll-off is capped at $60 billion per month, and about that much has been rolling off, minus the inflation protection the Fed earns on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) which is added to the principal of the TIPS.

What Treasury bills do for QT. These short-term securities (1 month to 1 year) are included in the $4.81 trillion of Treasury securities on the Fed’s balance sheet. But they play a different role.

The Fed lets them roll off (mature without replacement) to fill in the gap when not enough longer-term Treasury securities mature and roll off to get to the $60-billion monthly cap. As long as the Fed has T-bills, the roll-off of Treasury securities will reach the cap of $60 billion every month.

But when the Fed runs out of T-bills to fill in any gap, the Treasury roll-off will fall below the $60 billion cap. So we keep an eye on these T-bills because as long as there is still a stash of T-bills, the Treasury roll-off can proceed at a constant pace of $60 billion a month.

From March 2020 through the ramp-up of QT, the Fed held $326 billion in T-bills that it constantly replaced as they matured by buying new T-bills at auctions (the flat line in the chart). In September 2022, T-bills first started rolling off as needed to get the Treasury roll offs to $60 billion a month.

T-bills are now down to $230 billion. No T-bills rolled off in November. Less than $1 billion rolled off in December (this week). In total, $96 billion in T-bills have rolled off.

The Fed’s shrinking weight in the bond market: The US national debt has ballooned to $33.8 trillion. This debt comes in two categories:

One: $26.8 trillion of Treasury securities are “held by the public”; they are traded and are held by investors of all kinds, including by the Fed. They’re the Treasury bond market.

Two: $7.0 trillion of Treasury securities are held by entities of the US government (“held internally”), such as by US government pension funds and the Social Security Trust Fund, and they’re not part of the bond market.

The Fed’s share of Treasury securities that are in the bond market has fallen to 17.9%, down from over 24% at the peak.

The Fed’s weight in the bond market, though still massive, has diminished due to two factors: QT reduced the Treasury securities on the Fed’s balance sheet; while the government deficit is ballooning the marketable securities (the data points in the chart are quarterly, except the current data point which reflects today’s data).

Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): -$16 billion in November, -$293 billion from the peak, to $2.45 trillion, the lowest since September 2021.

The Fed only holds government-backed MBS, and taxpayers carry the credit risk. MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when mortgage payments are made.

The higher mortgage rates have caused  home sales to plunge and refis to collapse, which slowed the mortgage payoffs, and therefore the pass-through principal payments. The MBS run-off has been between $15 billion and $21 billion a month, far below the $35-billion cap.

Bank-panic measures unwind.

Repos: $0. Repos on the Fed’s balance sheet come in two flavors:

Repos with “foreign official” counterparties were paid off in April. At the peak in March 2023, they reached $60 billion, likely with the Swiss National Bank which was backstopping the take-under of Credit Suisse by UBS (the little jag in the chart below).

The repos with US counterparties faded out in July 2020, when the Fed made the terms less attractive. The Fed currently charges 5.5% on repos, as part of its policy rates, and there were no takers.

Loans to FDIC: -$47 billion in November to $0 as the FDIC paid off the remainder this week.

The FDIC has now sold enough of the assets it took on with the takedowns of Silicon Valley Bank,  Signature Bank, and First Republic to pay off the loans from the Fed.

Discount Window: dipped to $1.9 billion, compared to $153 billion in bank-panic March (red line in the chart below).

Discount Window lending to banks is the Fed’s classic liquidity supply to banks. But the Fed currently charges banks 5.5%, and banks have to post collateral at “fair market value.” This is expensive money for banks, and they avoid it.

Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): rose by $13 billion in November to $122 billion (green line in the chart below).

The BTFP, created during the bank panic, is a better deal for banks than the Discount Window. It’s more flexible; provides fixed-rate loans for up to one year; collateral is valued at purchase price rather than at market price; the rate is a little cheaper than at the Discount Window for new loans, and a lot cheaper for loans taken out in March and April when the Fed’s rates were lower. So this is a good deal for banks, and they’re using it.

But at $122 billion, this facility is small compared to the $22.8 trillion in commercial bank assets held by the 4,100 banks in the US.

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US News

MOSCOW – Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s two biggest oil exporters, on Thursday called for all OPEC+ members to join an agreement on output cuts for the good of the global economy only days after a fractious meeting of the producers’ club.

“They stressed the importance of continuing this cooperation, and the need for all participating countries to join to the OPEC+ agreement, in a way that serves the interests of producers and consumers and supports the growth of the global economy,” the statement, which was in Russian, added.

 

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Nasdaq

DUBAI – The global nuclear industry got a morale boost at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai after more than 20 nations vowed to triple capacity by 2050. But reaching that goal will require the industry to overcome regulatory hurdles, financing obstacles, fuel bottlenecks, and public safety concerns that have contributed to a long history of project delays and decades of stagnation.

It took 70 years to bring global nuclear capacity to the current level of 370 gigawatts (GW), and the industry must now select technologies, raise finance and develop the rules to build another 740 GW in half that time.

“Judging by the international nuclear industry’s performance over the past two decades, it is impossible,” said Mycle Schneider, lead author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report.

The declaration, signed by the U.S., France, Britain, South Korea, and others commits countries to mobilise investment and encourage financial institutions like the World Bank to back nuclear power.

It also promises efforts to extend the life of existing plants – with about 200 of 420 reactors around the world scheduled to be decommisioned before 2050 – and support for new technologies like small modular reactors (SMRs).

Nuclear executives at COP28 endorsed the pledge, but acknowledged the industry’s struggles.

“Nuclear is the safest source of energy,” said Patrick Fragman, chief executive of Westinghouse. “Of course, for the first of their kind reactors there were problems and cost overruns. We know: we have the scars.”

In a sign of challenges to come, some environmental groups criticised the pledge, citing public safety concerns, while academics questioned whether plants could be brought online in time to help avert a climate catastrophe.

“Why would anyone spend a single dollar on a technology that, if planned today, won’t even be available to help until 2035-2045?” said Mark Jacobson, an energy specialist at Stanford University.

There are currently 60 commercial reactors under construction in 17 countries across the world, with China accounting for 25, according to the World Nuclear Association.

Though China is one of the few countries to remain steadfast in its commitment to nuclear development over the years, its 2020 capacity target was one of the only ones it missed.

In much of the West, meanwhile, nuclear power capacity has stagnated, with huge reactor construction costs, permitting issues, and public opposition after the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan in 2011 blocking new construction.

At COP28, nuclear firms were talking up the prospects of SMRs as a better bet. Backers say they have shorter construction times than traditional plants and could in theory be brought online more quickly.

Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP) presented a simulator of its “iSMR” reactor, designed to be plugged into existing power grids and used to run desalination plants or provide urban heating.

KHNP will be able to build a plant in two years once permits are in place, chief executive Jooho Whang said, compared to 10 to 20 years for large reactors.

“Historically it is true that nuclear power plants are subject to the approval of the government and I don’t think that will change,” said Whang.

“But if SMR makes a good demonstration project, there will be exponential growth in demand across the world.”

KHNP’s iSMR is one of around 80 such models in development, but most are unlikely to get going before 2030, experts say.

NuScale SMR.N, which has the only SMR design approved by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, last month had to axe its project at a national lab, on worries about low subscription for the plant’s power. NuScale says its other projects are on track.

Rafael Grossi, executive director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told Reuters that the body was now working on harmonising approval rules worldwide to make it easier for countries to share technologies.

“The IAEA has launched a process so that regulators around the world can move faster, always by applying very strict safety measures,” he said. The current system might not work in a globalised market where SMRs made in the United States are sold in Africa, he said.

 

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World Oil

(Bloomberg) – Venezuela is in advanced talks on new deals with European energy majors Repsol SA and Eni SpA as the Andean nation seeks to reassert itself as a global oil producer after the U.S. eased sanctions.

The Spanish and Italian companies are hammering out contract terms between their oil ventures and state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela SA, according to three people familiar with the deals who aren’t authorized to speak publicly. Two of them say an agreement could be reached by the end of the year.

In return, the European majors are hoping to secure exports from a key project that has rights to the largest offshore gas field in South America. They’re also seeking more operational and finance controls from their ventures, hoping to catch up with Chevron Corp. after the U.S. driller was granted a special license to resume production in Venezuela late last year.

Last month, Etablissements Maurel & Prom SA of France became the first European company to sign a contract with PDVSA after the Biden administration suspended sanctions in exchange for electoral guarantees from the Venezuelan government ahead of next year’s presidential vote.

With markets thirsty to add more barrels from the country with the largest oil reserves in the world, Venezuela is expected to both expand its output and steer more of its existing production to refineries in the U.S. That could help contain gasoline prices stateside as President Joe Biden campaigns for reelection in 2024.

Nicolás Maduro’s regime, however, has done the bare minimum to keep up its side of the bargain with the U.S. It hasn’t yet released political prisoners, prompting Biden officials to assess the potential need to reimpose sanctions. Maduro is also ratcheting up tensions with neighboring Guyana, signaling his intent to grant exploration licenses in the disputed oil-rich Essequibo region after holding a referendum on annexation.

Repsol sent a negotiating team to Caracas in November for talks on the contracts and to explore new options to secure access to heavy crude for its oil refineries in Spain, two of the people said. Negotiations will likely hinge on compromises that boost production for both Repsol and PDVSA.

The Madrid-based company also reviewed long term debt owed by PDVSA for oil and gas sales. This includes debt accrued by PDVSA on natural gas sales from the offshore Cardon IV venture that Repsol runs in equal partnership with Rome-based Eni. The project satisfies nearly a third of Venezuela’s natural gas demand, according to Ruben Perez, director at Chemstrategy, an energy consultancy in Caracas.

Eni runs five oil ventures in Venezuela, while Repsol operates four. PDVSA has more than 40 oil partnerships with foreign and local companies, some of whom have suspended activity due to the difficult business climate.

 

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Fund Ukraine or your children will have to fight Russia, X host claims Congress was told

 

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Well, if Bill Gates and Larry Fink, the CEO of the world’s largest ESG fund, both say that climate change won’t kill us and that oil and gas investing is ok, what changed?

Let’s table that thought. ; Michael and I have been inundated with oil and gas deal evaluation requests. We also started the ENB Deal Spotlight to show investors how oil and gas deals are evaluated. Our team also has four booths at NAPE to have live podcasts and live deal evaluation tool training. Investing is getting complicated; with renewable companies losing money and projects canceled, the fund managers are turning to oil and gas and Bitcoin mining for the ESG funds.

So, we thought it was important to talk with Le’Ann Callihan, VP, and Drew Guntert, Director at NAPE, to get the skinny on the February 2024 gathering in Houston. And it is wild to hear how many investors, Bitcoin miners, ESG, offshore, E&P, and OFS companies will be there.

If you are a CEO or industry leader, don’t hesitate to get in touch with me, and we can get you interviewed before NAPE and even live at the show.

Thank you Le’Ann and Drew, for stopping by the ENB Podcast. I had a blast and look forward to talking with the executives before and at NAPE. – Stu

 

00:00 – Intro

02:05 – Nape’s Value and Evolution – Discussion on Nape’s positive impact, diversity, and evolution from 1993 to a global event with an energy business conference and technical tracks.

12:05 – Nape’s Success and Contribution – Highlighting Nape’s success, low booth costs, and contributions to not-for-profit organizations, fostering long-term industry relationships.

18:29 – Energy Industry Culture – Exploration of the energy industry’s unique and collaborative culture, emphasizing Houston’s role as an international energy hub.

23:53 – Texas as an Energy Hub – Focus on Texas’s thriving business environment, economic impact, and industry generosity, supporting charitable causes through events like Nape.

30:28 – Governors Forum and Nape Events – Promotion of the Governors Forum, inclusivity, and additional Wednesday events during Nape.

31:42 – Post-Event Activities – Explanation of the Nape team’s immediate post-event activities, including planning for future events.

33:12 – Last Thoughts – Closing remarks from Leanne.

33:39 – Last Thoughts – Closing remarks from Drew.

34:38 – Outro

Reach out to Le’Ann here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/le-ann-callihan-a4b6b87/

Reach out to Drew here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/drew-guntert-48832167/

News: https://energynewsbeat.co/

Podcasts: https://energynewsbeat.co/industry-insights-2/

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