Energy News Beat

Manufacturing is doomed due to the first-ever artificial destruction of natural gas trade, CEO Aleksey Miller says

The post EU states knowingly ‘de-industrializing’ – Gazprom appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy News Beat

US natural gas pipeline operator Williams is buying a portfolio of natural gas storage assets across Louisiana and Mississippi for $1.95 billion to serve growing demand driven by LNG exports and power generation.

Under the deal with a an affiliate of Hartree Partners, Williams will acquire six underground natural gas storage facilities with total capacity of 115 billion cubic feet (Bcf).

The deal also includes 230 miles of gas transmission pipeline and 30 pipeline interconnects to “attractive” markets, including LNG markets, and connections to Transco, the nation’s largest natural gas transmission pipeline, according to Williams.

The six natural gas storage facilities include four salt domes with combined capacity of 92 Bcf and two depleted reservoirs with combined capacity of 23 Bcf.

Moreover, fhe facilities have injection capacity of 5 Bcf/d and withdrawal capacity of 7.9 Bcf/d, among the highest of any natural gas storage platform in the US, Williams said.

Two of the facilities, Pine Prairie and Southern Pines, are directly connected with Transco and are “well positioned” for expansions.

Williams said the acquisition price “represents an approximate 10x estimated 2024 Ebitda multiple.”

The firm expects to close the transaction in January 2024, following satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

“This premier natural gas storage platform on the Gulf Coast fits squarely within our strategy to own and operate the best assets connected to the best markets to serve growing demand driven by LNG exports and power generation,” Williams president and CEO, Alan Armstrong, said.

He said these assets “better position Williams’ natural gas storage operations to serve Gulf Coast LNG demand and growing electrification loads from data centers along the Transco corridor.”

“Since 2010, US demand for natural gas has grown by 56 percent while gas storage capacity has only increased 12 percent,” Armstrong said, adding that the company expects the increasing demand for “high deliverability storage to drive significant earnings growth across these assets.”

Last year, US LNG firm Sempra Infrastructure, a unit of Sempra, entered into a heads of agreement with Williams for the offtake of LNG from two projects.

The deal contemplates negotiation and finalization of two 20-year long-term sale and purchase agreements for about three million tonnes per annum of LNG.

Sempra Infrastructure said the supplies would come from the Port Arthur LNG project in Jefferson County, Texas, and the Cameron LNG Phase 2 project under development in Hackberry, Louisiana.

The agreement also contemplates the negotiation of a separate natural gas sales agreement for about 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) to be delivered in the Gillis, Louisiana area, as feed gas supply for the LNG projects.

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post Williams targets US LNG export market with $1.95 billion gas storage deal appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy News Beat

India’s Petronet LNG is moving forward with its plans to install a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) in Gopalpur, Odisha.

The LNG importer said in a statement on Wednesday it has executed binding deals with Gopalpur Ports for its first LNG terminal on India’s east coast.

Petronet and Gopalpur Ports signed sub-concession agreement, sub-lease deed, and port service agreement for the first phase of the 4 mpta FSRU-based terminal, with provision for converting to a 5 mtpa land-based terminal at the port.

India’s largest LNG importer said the terminal would bring “augmentation in overall regasification capacity in the country thereby contributing towards gas-based economy.”

Petronet did not provide any additional information.

In November last year, the company approved the FSRU-based import facility and one month after that it signed a term sheet with Gopalpur Ports.

According to Petronet, the first phase of the project would cost about 23.06 billion rupees ($278 million).

Also, these costs include the construction of the jetty and the pipeline but not the FSRU charter.

The firm previously said that it expects to complete the Gopalpur project in three years.

Petronet is currently expanding its 17.5 mtpa Dahej LNG terminal with about 5 mtpa of new capacity and it expects to complete this expansion in 2025.

The terminal was operating at almost 100 percent capacity in October, according to Petronet.

The company also operates the 5 mtpa Kochi LNG terminal, but this facility currently operates at about 20 percent capacity due to lack of pipeline connection.

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post India’s Petronet LNG moves forward with Gopalpur FSRU plans appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy News Beat

Oil Price

A fifth of global oil trade this year was settled in currencies different from the U.S. dollar as countries such as Russia and China move away from the petrodollar.

This is according to JP Morgan’s head of global commodities strategy, Natasha Kaneva, who spoke to the Wall Street Journal and said sanctions have been a major motivator for Russia and Iran to start doing their oil business in non-dollar currencies.

“The U.S. dollar is getting some competition in commodities markets,” Kaneva said, just a day after news broke that Russia and Iran have agreed to completely stop using the U.S. dollar in bilateral trade.

Indeed, some analysts have argued that the barrage of sanctions that the U.S. leveled on Russia is causing other countries to consider ditching the dollar as a way of insulating themselves from the effect of potential sanctions.

“This is something other countries are increasingly concerned about,” William Jackson, chief emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics, told the WSJ.

“Some are seeking to reduce their risk of possible sanctions on the use of dollars in trade. China is trying to act as a geopolitical counterweight.”

Yet sanctioned oil producers are not the only ones eager to ditch the dollar. China has also been active in replacing dollars in international trade with its own currency, which it seeks to make more global.

Earlier this month Nikkei Asia reported that the Chinese yuan had become the fourth most popular currency in international settlements in November, overtaking the Japanese yen. The report explained the development with the more active trade between Russia and China.

A month earlier, in October, China also completed the first cross-border payment for oil in digital yuan. Before that, state-owned oil companies made several oil and gas purchases paying for them in the Chinese currency rather than dollars.

Per JP Morgan data, there were 12 major commodity contracts that were settled in currencies different from the greenback this year, the WSJ reported, adding that this compared with seven such deals in 2022 and two in the period between 2015 and 2021.

Among the 2023 deals were one between the UAE and India for crude oil deliveries to be paid for in rupees, and another—a currency swap line—between Saudi Arabia and China worth $7 billion.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post Fifth of global oil trade used non-dollar currencies in 2023 appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy News Beat

Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet continued their downward trend this week, while European and Asian prices also decreased compared to the previous week.

Last week, both the Spark30S Atlantic and the Spark25S Pacific dropped below $100,000 per day.

“LNG freight rates have fallen for the fourth consecutive week, with a 6 percent week-on-week decrease for Atlantic rates and a 5 percent w-o-w decrease for Pacific rates,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday.

Image: Spark

Afghan said that the Atlantic rate decreased by $6,000 to $90,500 per day, whilst the Pacific rate decreased by $4,000 to $72,500 per day.

This is the lowest Spark25S Pacific year-end rate for the last four years, according to Afghan.

Rates continue to decline despite delays at the Panama Canal, and constraints at the Suez Canal due to attacks in the Red Sea.

Kpler said last week that at least eight LNG vessels re-routed away from the Red Sea towards the Cape of Good Hope amid ongoing security risks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month also declined from the last week.

The NWE DES LNG for January delivery was assessed last week at $10.206/MMBtu and at a $0.810/MMBtu discount to the TTF.

“The SparkNWE DES LNG price for January delivery is assessed at $9.925/MMBtu and at a $0.850/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said on Friday.

Image: Spark

He said this is a $0.282/MMBtu decrease in DES LNG price, and the discount to the TTF widened by $0.04/MMBtu, when compared to last week’s January prices.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in a report this week that Europe’s delivered imports of LNG in December were at 10.36 million mt as of December 27, or around 94 percent of the November level, which was the highest since May.

The US is supplier of 53 percent of the total, with some 13 percent coming from Russia and 8 percent from Algeria. Qatar also contributed around 8 percent of the supply.

Platts said demand remains muted as inventories across Europe remain comfortable.

Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that gas storages in the EU were 86.98 percent full on December 28 and 93.94 percent in the UK.

According to Platts data, JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, also dropped from the last week.

JKM for February settled at $11.935/MMBtu on Thursday.

State-run Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) said in a report earlier this week that Asian spot LNG prices continued to decline due to low demand and ample supply.

This month, JOGMEC did not publish both the contract-based and the arrival-based monthly spot LNG price for November as there were less than two companies that imported spot LNG.

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post Spot LNG shipping rates, European prices fall further this week appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy News Beat

Oil Price

U.S. crude oil production has overwhelmingly exceeded earlier forecasts and has grown at a much faster pace this year, offsetting much of the OPEC+ efforts to push up prices by coordinated supply reductions.

U.S. production growth is expected to continue into the new year, thanks to further gains in efficiency and higher spending and production plans by the U.S. supermajors that have just announced megamerger deals.

Some analysts predict that the U.S. oil output increase will slacken in 2024.

But others, including industry officials, see the estimates of production growth by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) as too conservative for 2024, and believe that U.S. shale production could top projections again.

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post U.S. shale growth could exceed forecasts in 2024 appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy News Beat

A similar drop in mortgage rates a year ago to even lower rates didn’t turn up sales volume either – on the contrary.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The dream is, or was, that mortgage rates dropped enough in November and December to push potential home buyers out of their buyers’ strike and to sally forth and start bidding wars all over again, so that we could amuse ourselves with headlines touting the new craze, while millennials and GenZers are trampling all over each other to outbid each other and to drive up prices to make each other miserable, so that sellers could maximize their gains. The media just loves touting this kind of stuff.

And mortgage rates dropped a whole bunch, and new listings are now suddenly showing up in larger numbers than a year ago, but buyers not so much. Clearly, mortgage rates haven’t dropped to the magic level yet, folks are waiting for them to drop further, and the market remains frozen.

Pending home sales – a forward-looking indicator of sales of existing homes, based on contract signings – in November were unchanged from October, and both occupy the second-lowest historic low, after the historic low in April 2020, according to the national Association of Realtors today. So this is not exactly what people figured in their wildest dreams (data via YCharts):

The NAR defines a “pending sale” as a transaction where the contract was signed but it has not yet closed. At this point, the deal can still fall through for a variety of reasons. If all goes well, the sale usually closes “within one or two months of signing.”

The index value was set at 100 for contract signings in 2001. Today’s value of 71.6 is down 28.4% from the index average in 2001. Compared to the prior Novembers, the index value of contract signings plunged…

By 5% from the already collapsed levels of November 2022
By 40% from November 2021
By 43% from November 2020
By 34% from November 2019.

Applications for mortgages to purchase a home dipped in the latest week, after inching up a few weeks in a row, according to the latest weekly data released on December 20 by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

And these purchase mortgage applications remain at totally collapsed levels, down by 18% from the already collapsed levels in the same week in 2022, down by 48% from the same week in 2021, and down by 43% from the same week in 2019.

Mortgage rates have dropped a lot, but not nearly enough to hit that magic level that restarts the whole zoo all over again, apparently.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked down to 6.61% in the latest reporting week, from 6.67% in the prior week, according to Freddie Mac today. Today’s average is down by 118 basis points from the peak of 7.79% in the week at the end of October.

Ironically, there was a similar drop (101 basis points) a year ago, to even lower rates of just above 6%, and it didn’t turn up volume either – on the contrary.

The issue with the frozen market for existing homes isn’t the mortgage rate – it’s the price of the home that people want to buy. Prices have shot sky-high over the past few years, from already very high levels, and the solution is lower prices. A continued buyers’ strike goes a long way to making that happen. And in some markets, that’s already happening.

Homebuilders who have to sell their homes and cannot sit out this market have figured this out. They’re building smaller homes with fewer amenities to get prices down, and as their incentive to induce people to buy those smaller and cheaper homes, they’re also buying down mortgage rates which takes the place of other incentives they would normally offer.

And so sales of new houses have not collapsed to historic lows – unlike existing homes – but are at the muddling-through levels of the years before the pandemic. Homeowners who want to sell should keep an eye on the market for new houses because that’s where their competition is, and that competition is getting fairly aggressive to try to sell new homes.

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the beer and iced-tea mug to find out how:

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post Mortgage Rates Dropped a Lot but Clearly Not to the Magic Level. Buyers’ Strike Continues. Issue Is Price appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy News Beat

Quantitative tightening powers along in the euro area.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Under the ECB’s QT program, kicked off in October 2022, total assets have plunged by €1.94 trillion, or by 21.9%, to €6.90 trillion, the lowest since November 2020, according to the ECB’s weekly balance sheet released today. This includes the €88-billion drop in the latest reporting week.

In USD, the ECB has now shed roughly $2.14 trillion in assets at the current exchange rate. By comparison, the Fed has shed $1.23 trillion in assets.

During the pandemic, the ECB piled on €4.15 trillion in assets; it has now shed 47% of that pile.

The ECB engaged in QE via two categories, and both are getting unwound, but at a very different pace:

It offered loans under very favorable conditions to banks, and it was up to the banks to deploy this cash.
It purchased government bonds, corporate bonds, covered bonds, and asset-backed securities, thereby handing the financial markets this cash, under two programs: APP (asset purchase programme), starting in 2014; and PEPP (pandemic emergency purchase programme), starting in March 2020.

In October 2022, the ECB announced the first steps of QT. It made the loan terms unattractive, and it opened more windows for banks to pay back those loans, which caused the banks to pay back those loans in big waves, which removed liquidity via the banks.

In December 2022, the ECB announced the initial phase of its bond QT with a start date in March 2023. It has since then accelerated the pace of the bond-roll-off, and announced a further acceleration at its December meeting.

Loan QT: -€1.79 trillion

The ECB has always handled QE via waves of loans, starting with the Financial Crisis, then the Euro Debt Crisis, then the period of no-crisis, and finally the pandemic. The waves had names, at first: Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO), then Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO), and these waves were numbered. During the pandemic, the ECB’s lending operations were called TLTRO III.

These pandemic-era TLTRO III loans amounted to €1.6 trillion at the peak, on top of the still outstanding prior loans, to total €2.2 trillion at the peak between June 2021 and June 2022.

In the week of the current balance sheet through December 22, banks paid back €98 billion in loans. Since the peak, they paid back €1.79 trillion, with only €405 billion in loans still outstanding.

Bond QT: -€262 billion

The ECB had bought bonds under two programs: APP, starting in 2014; and PEPP, starting in March 2020.

APP bonds: The roll-off in 2023 was limited to the bonds in the APP portfolio, and for the first six months was capped. But in July, the cap was removed. Since then, APP bonds have been rolling off without replacement as they mature. So whatever matures and gets paid off, that’s the amount by which the APP portfolio declines. Current APP holdings: €3.02 trillion.

PEPP bonds have been kept steady since the end of QE. But at its December meeting, the ECB announced that its PEPP bonds will start to roll off in July 2024, capped at €7.5 billion a month. At the end of 2024, the cap will be removed, and whatever matures in the PEPP portfolio will then come off the balance sheet. Current PEPP holdings: €1.71 trillion.

Over the past four weeks, €14 billion in APP bonds rolled off (holiday periods are slow in terms of maturity dates, with the bond market shut down entirely before Christmas). For a feel for the pace of the roll-off: over the prior 4-week periods, respectively, €19 billion, €45 billion, and €30 billion rolled off.

Since the peak, €262 billion in bonds rolled off. APP bonds did all the lifting. PEPP bonds have remained steady. The entire bond portfolio is now down to €4.70 trillion, the lowest since December 2021:

QT for years to get a grip on inflation.

The December 2023 meeting has been typical since the October 2022 announcement of QT: Each step along the way, QT was accelerated, to what is now the most QT of any major central bank.

QT is a program that is expected to run for years on automatic pilot in the back ground. The ECB’s policy-rate decisions and the surrounding jabbering – same with the Fed’s policy-rate decisions and surrounding jabbering – get all the speculative attention. But QT runs without drama in the background, removing liquidity month after month from the financial system, and thereby removing some of the inflationary fuel.

The hope is that this ongoing QT will allow central banks to not lift rates as high as they would have before the arrival of huge balance sheets. In other words, the hope is that central banks can leverage QT to get a handle on inflation without having to jack up rates so high that they would break the economy.

The massive QE via loans and bond purchases, which pushed down long-term yields, and the negative interest rate policy, which pushed down short-term yields, caused asset prices to spike in Europe, including home prices in Germany. But QT and higher rates have now begun to reverse that process. Here are German home prices, which are now tanking after a huge spike, versus the ECB’s balance sheet.

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the beer and iced-tea mug to find out how:

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post ECB Balance Sheet QT: -€1.94 Trillion from Peak, down to €6.9 Trillion. Shed 47% of Pandemic QE Assets appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy News Beat

When wind turbine companies seek permission to harm sea life, reporters for The Associated Press blame The Heritage Foundation (where I work) and the Heartland Institute, instead of reporting the facts.

It was a Chico Marx moment: “Who ya gonna believe, me or your own eyes?

The misleading AP article—carried by WBTS-TV in  Boston; The Daily Star newspaper of Oneonta, N.Y.; and WTFX-TV in Philadelphia, among others—stated that “scientists say there is no credible evidence linking offshore wind farms to whale deaths” and that “offshore wind opponents are using unsupported claims about harm to whales to try to stop projects, with some of the loudest opposition centered in New Jersey.”

The article accuses opponents of causing “angst in coastal communities, where developers need to build shoreside infrastructure to operate a wind farm.”

If so, why are offshore wind farm companies asking Uncle Sam for permission to harm ocean mammals, and why are dead whales washing up on East Coast beaches?

According to AP reporters Christina Larson, Jennifer McDermott, Patrick Whittle and Wayne Parry, “One vocal opponent of offshore wind is The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank based in Washington, D.C. Diana Furchtgott-Roth, director of the foundation’s center for energy, climate and environment, wrote in November that Danish company Ørsted’s scrapped New Jersey wind project was “unsightly” and “a threat to wildlife.” (The Daily Signal is the news outlet of The Heritage Foundation.)

If the four reporters had done their homework, they would have mentioned that in required environmental-impact filings with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, companies explain that sounds generated by their activities will harm ocean mammals.

For example, Atlantic Shores and Ørsted’s Ocean Winds both requested permission to harm ocean mammals in their applications for New Jersey offshore-wind projects. And, since boats ramped up offshore surveys in May 2022, 31 dead whales have washed up on New Jersey and surrounding beaches.

Ørsted, which in November pulled out of a proposed New Jersey offshore wind farm, requested permission to harm 30 whales, 3,231 dolphins, 82 porpoises, and eight seals through sound waves generated by its surveys—although the company claims that the damage would be negligible.

The precise numbers and detailed species can be found on the website of the NOAA, in Ørsted’s Application for Incidental Harassment Authorization (Table 9).

Atlantic Shores, owned by Dutch Shell oil and French EDF, is still seeking permission to locate an offshore wind farm in New Jersey. In its Request for Incidental Harassment (Table 6-3) it stated that acoustic waves associated with the siting of the wind turbines would likely affect 10 whales, 662 dolphins, 206 porpoises, and 546 seals (also termed a negligible amount). It received permission to harm these marine animals.

Although the companies describe effects as “negligible,” the NOAA website states that it’s difficult to measure the effects of manmade sounds on mammals.

“Acoustic trauma, which could result from close exposure to loud human-produced sounds, is very challenging to assess, particularly with any amount of decomposition,” or damage to the whale’s body, states NOAA on its website.

Sean Hayes, chief of protected species for the NOAA, wrote in a letter to Brian Hooker, lead biologist at the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management: “The development of offshore wind poses risks to these species [right whales], which is magnified in southern New England waters due to species abundance and distribution … . However, unlike vessel traffic and noise, which can be mitigated to some extent, oceanographic impacts from installed and operating turbines cannot be mitigated for the 30-year life span of the project, unless they are decommissioned.”

In addition, the AP article made no mention that some of the companies that would install these wind farms are owned by Denmark, the Netherlands and France—despite the fact that renewable energy tax credits in the so-called Inflation Reduction Act are aimed at stimulating domestic firms to produce renewable energy. And there was no mention that New Jersey offshore wind farms would have practically no effect on mitigating global temperatures, either now or by 2100.

Local municipalities are increasingly rejecting wind farms, according to a Renewable Rejections Database tracker maintained by environmental scholar Robert Bryce. He reports that 417 wind farms and 190 solar arrays have been rejected by local communities in 2023. More than 600 projects have been rejected in 2023, up from 489 in 2022 and 208 in 2018.

Proponents of renewable energy are trying to gloss over its harms and exaggerate its benefits in an attempt to push costly offshore wind farms. For the record, French- and Dutch-owned Atlantic Shores and Danish-owned Ørsted asked permission to hurt whales, dolphins, porpoises and seals.

Americans in New Jersey and elsewhere oppose that environmental damage.

Source: Dailysignal.com

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post Associated Press Got It Wrong: Wind Farm Contractors Acknowledge Turbines Kill Dolphins, Whales appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy News Beat

The 60th US presidential election, which will unfold in 2024, will be quite unlike any that has gone before as the US, and the rest of the world, braces for a contest amid fears of eroding democracy and the looming threat of authoritarianism.

It will be a fight marked by numerous unwanted firsts as the oldest president in the country’s history is likely to face the first former US president to stand trial on criminal charges. A once aspirational nation will continue its plunge into anxiety and divisions about crime, immigration, race, foreign wars and the cost of living.

Democrat Joe Biden, 81, is preparing for the kind of gruelling campaign he was able to avoid during coronavirus lockdowns in 2020. Republican Donald Trump will spend some of his campaign in a courtroom and has vowed authoritarian-style retribution if he wins. For voters it is a time of stark choices, unique spectacles and simmering danger.

“It feels to me as if America is sitting on a powder keg and the fuse has been lit,” said Larry Jacobs, the director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. “The protective shield that all democracies and social orders rely on – legitimacy of the governing body, some level of elite responsibility, the willingness of citizens to view their neighbors in a civic way – is in an advanced stage of decline or collapse.

“It’s quite possible that the powder keg that America’s sitting on will explode over the course of 2024.”

US politics entered a new, turbulent era with Trump’s shocking victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. The businessman and reality TV star, tapping into populist rage against the establishment, was the first president with no prior political or military experience. His chaotic four-year presidency was scarred by the Covid-19 pandemic and ended with a bitter defeat by Biden in a 2020 election that was itself billed as an unprecedented stress test of democracy.

Trump never accepted the result and his attempts to overturn it culminated in a deadly riot at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021, and his second impeachment. He has spent three years plotting revenge and describes the 5 November election as “the final battle”. But he is running for president under the shadow of 91 criminal charges in four jurisdictions, knowing that regaining the White House might be his best hope of avoiding prison – a calculus that could make him and his supporters more desperate and volatile than ever.

Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, said: “This is the most astounding election I have ever seen.

“We have never had an election where a likely major party nominee is indicted for major felony charges of the most serious nature; this is not shoplifting. He’s being charged with an attempt to destroy our democracy and subverting our national security. Both in terms of Trump’s personal morality and his incredibly serious crimes, we have never seen anything remotely like this.”

First Trump must win the Republican primary against Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, putting the electoral and legal calendars on a collision course. On 16 January, a day after the Iowa caucuses kick off the Republican nomination process, Trump faces a defamation trial brought by the writer E Jean Carroll, who has already won a $5m judgment against him after a jury found him liable for sexual abuse and defamation.

On 4 March, Trump is due in court in Washington in a federal case accusing him of plotting to overturn the 2020 election result. The following day is Super Tuesday, when more than 15 states are scheduled to hold Republican primaries, the biggest delegate haul of the campaign.

On 25 March, Trump also faces state charges in New York over hush-money payments to an adult film star, although the judge has acknowledged he may postpone that because of the federal trial. On 5 August, prosecutors have asked to start an election fraud trial in Georgia, less than three weeks after Trump is likely to have been nominated by the Republican national convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Trump is hard at work to flip his legal troubles to his political advantage, contending that he is a victim of a Democratic deep state conspiracy. He frequently tells his supporters: “In the end, they’re not coming after me. They’re coming after you – and I’m just standing in their way.” His Georgia mugshot has been slapped on T-shirts and other merchandise like a lucrative badge of honor.

Joe Biden speaks at an event to tout a new bridge over the Ohio River in Covington, Kentucky, on 4 January 2023. Despite legislative successes, including an infrastructure law, opinion polls suggest voters have given him little credit. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

It seems to be working, at least according to a series of opinion polls that show Trump leading Biden in a hypothetical matchup. A survey in early December for the Wall Street Journal newspaper showed Trump ahead by four points, 47% to 43%. When five potential third-party and independent candidates were included, Trump’s lead over Biden expanded to six points, 37% to 31%.

To Democrats, such figures are bewildering. Biden’s defenders point to his record, including the creation of 14m jobs, strong GDP growth and four major legislative victories on coronavirus relief, infrastructure, domestic production of computer chips and the biggest climate action in history. He has also led the western alliance against Russian aggression in Ukraine.

 It’s just amazing: I’ve never seen a president do so much and get so little mileage on it

Lichtman added: “He gets credit for nothing. It’s just amazing: I’ve never seen a president do so much and get so little mileage on it. He has more domestic accomplishments than any American president since the 1960s. He’s presided over an amazing economic recovery, a far better economy than was under Donald Trump even before the pandemic in terms of jobs, wages, GDP. Inflation has gone down by two-thirds.

“It was Biden who single-handedly put together the coalition of the west that stopped [Vladimir] Putin from quickly overtaking Ukraine. He seems to get no credit for any of this whatsoever and that’s partly his own fault and the fault of the Democratic party. The Democratic party has been horrible for some time now – at least 15 years. Republicans are so much better at messaging.”

The president’s approval rating has been stubbornly low since around the time of the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021. He is grappling with record numbers of migrants entering the country – an issue that increasingly aggravates states beyond the US-Mexico border. His refusal to call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza is costing him some support among progressives and young people.

The latest Democratic messaging salvo – “Bidenomics” – appears to have been a flop at a moment when many voters blame him for rising prices and a cost-of-living crisis. For all the barrage of positive economic data, Americans are lacking the feelgood factor.

Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia, said: “People feel that Biden overpromised and underdelivered and ultimately what it came down to was he didn’t make me feel good while he did it and he didn’t make it look easy.”

Abortion rights supporters in Columbus, Ohio, celebrate winning the referendum on a measure to enshrine a right to abortion in the state’s constitution on 7 November 2023. Reproductive rights could be a key vote winner for Democrats. Photograph: Megan Jelinger/AFP/Getty Images

Biden still holds a potential ace in the hole. Democrats plan to make abortion central to the 2024 campaign, with opinion polls showing most Americans do not favor strict limits on reproductive rights. The party is hoping threats to those rights will encourage millions of women and independents to vote their way next year. It is also seeking to put measures enshrining access to abortion in state constitutions on as many ballots as possible.

The issue has flummoxed Republicans, with some concerned the party has gone too far with state-level restrictions since the supreme court overturned the landmark 1973 Roe v Wade ruling last year, ending constitutional protection for abortion. Trump has taken notice and is conspicuously trying to be vague on the issue.

 They must make the contrast between a Biden America and a Trump America and ask people which America do they want to live in

The Wall Street Journal poll found Biden leading Trump on abortion and democracy by double digits. But it gave Trump a double-digit lead on the economy, inflation, crime, border security, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and physical and mental fitness for office. Biden still has time to reshape perceptions but even close allies concede that he is not an inspirational speechmaker like Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. How can he turn it around?

Tara Setmayer, a former Republican communications director on Capitol Hill, said: “My advice would be to be aggressive, go on offence and set the narrative. They must make the contrast between a Biden America and a Trump America and ask people which America do they want to live in.

“A year out, most people are not paying attention so the polls are meaningless in that they are not predictive of what will happen in a year. Where they do have value is what the trend line shows, which is that the American people are not getting the messaging clearly enough now, so it’s time to get up off their asses and activate the campaign at level 10 right now.”

Setmayer, a senior adviser to the anti-Trump group the Lincoln Project, added: “What Donald Trump is telegraphing, what he plans to do to this country, I don’t fully think most Americans understand.

“Use the power of incumbency, of the bully pulpit, of their record. Biden is surrounded by people who are experienced campaign veterans and so is he. Use it.”

Questions of Biden’s age have dogged his re-election bid. It now appears too late in this cycle to stand aside for a younger generation, such as the vice-president, Kamala Harris. Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images

Should Trump prevail, numerous critics have warned that his return would hollow out American democracy and presage a drift towards Hungarian-style authoritarianism. In a recent interview on Fox News, Trump was asked: “You are promising America tonight, you would never abuse this power as retribution against anybody?” He did not give an outright denial but replied airily: “Except for day one.”

Should Biden serve a second term, he will be 86 when he leaves office. Dean Phillips, 54, a congressman from Minnesota, mounting a Democratic primary challenge, is calling for a new generation of leadership. Some Democrats privately wish that Biden had declared mission accomplished after the 2022 midterm elections and stepped down to make way for younger contenders such as Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer. It now appears too late.

 If I were a Democratic strategist, I would have been arrested for begging him to accept four years and move on. You can’t fix age

Frank Luntz, a prominent consultant and pollster, said: “Democrats should be apoplectic. Donald Trump has been indicted in felony after felony. The economy is relatively OK and yet Biden is sinking every week and it’s because of something that no soundbite and no messaging can fix: his age. If I were a Democratic strategist, I would have been arrested in front of the White House for begging him to accept four years and move on. You can’t fix age.”

Biden’s potential for gaffes was limited during the pandemic election; this time he will be expected to travel far and wide, his every misstep amplified by rightwing media. The social media platform X, formerly Twitter, is now owned by Elon Musk and populated by extremists such as Tucker Carlson and Alex Jones. This has also been dubbed the first “AI election”, with deepfakes threatening to accelerate the spread of disinformation – a tempting target for foreign interference.

A demonstrator by the name of Cowboy Barbie, with an AR-15 rifle, protests against Biden’s inauguration, in Carson City, Nevada, on 16 January 2021. Political polarisation and the threat of violence have not abated since. Photograph: Sopa Images/LightRocket/Getty Images

It is unfolding in a febrile atmosphere of conspiracy theories, polarisation, gun violence and surging antisemitism and Islamophobia. Political opponents are increasingly framed as mortal enemies. Violence erupted on January 6 and again last year when a man broke into the home of the former House speaker Nancy Pelosi and attacked her husband with a hammer.

Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center thinktank in Washington, said: “If you have something like the last couple of elections where it’s razor thin, and people who don’t understand the American electoral process see malfeasance and misfeasance where there is none, we have a very non-trivial chance of violence.

“I wouldn’t even presume that we wouldn’t have an outbreak of sporadic violence before that. The fact is when people see each other as the enemy, and talk about each other as the enemy, people who are mentally unbalanced and have access to firearms will do mentally unbalanced things.”

Luntz does not foresee violence.

But nor is he optimistic about the future of a nation torn between hope and fear. “What I do expect is a fraying no longer at the edges but at the heart of American democracy,” he said. “I’m afraid that we are reaching the point of no return. In my conversations with senators and congressmen every day I’m on the Hill – it doesn’t matter which party – we all agree that it’s not coming, it’s here, and no one knows what to do about it.”

Source: Amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post ‘Sitting on a powder keg’: US braces for a year, and an election, like no other appeared first on Energy News Beat.