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Canceled offshore wind projects, imperiled solar factories, fading demand for electric vehicles.

A year after passage of the largest climate change legislation in U.S. history, meant to touch off a boom in American clean energy development, economic realities are fraying President Joe Biden’s agenda.

Soaring financing and materials costs, unreliable supply chains, delayed rulemaking in Washington and sluggish permitting have wrought havoc ranging from offshore wind developer Orsted’s project cancellations in the U.S. Northeast, to Tesla, Ford and GM’s scaled back EV manufacturing plans.

The darkening outlook for clean energy industries is tough news for Biden, whose pledge to deliver a net-zero economy by 2050 faces headwinds that the landmark Inflation Reduction Act’s billions in tax credits alone can’t resolve.

After walking into last year’s United Nations climate summit in Egypt touting the IRA as evidence of unprecedented progress in the fight against climate change, Biden is expected to skip this year’s event in Dubai amid dire warnings that the world is moving too slowly to avert the worst of global warming.

Clean energy experts interviewed by Reuters say the mounting setbacks will make the United States’ ambitious targets to decarbonize by mid-century even harder to reach.

“While we see healthy numbers being deployed each and every quarter and we’re continuing to be on a growth path, it’s certainly not at the level that is required to hit some of those targets,” said John Hensley, vice president for the clean energy trade group American Clean Power Association (ACP).

The dynamics of soaring costs and broken supply chains are also slamming projects in other regions. No major nation is on track to meet the emissions reduction goals outlined in the United Nations’ Paris accord, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to Wood Mackenzie.

A White House official said that while there have been macroeconomic setbacks and bottlenecks at the local level to renewable energy deployment, there are plenty of examples of progress, including an expanding EV market and Dominion Energy Inc making headway on the nation’s largest offshore wind farm off the coast of Virginia.

“In the face of headwinds that are macro in nature, headwinds that affect decision making across the economy, this has been a resilient trajectory,” White House National Climate Advisor Ali Zaidi said in an interview. He said the United States will achieve it’s climate goals.

TEN MILLION HOMES

More than 56 gigawatts of clean power projects, enough to power nearly 10 million homes, have been delayed since late 2021, according to an ACP analysis. Solar energy facilities account for two thirds of those delays due in part to U.S. import restrictions. Washington has been trying to combat the use of forced labor and tariff-dodging in a panel supply chain that is dominated by Chinese goods.

Issues like permitting gridlock, local fights over where to site solar and wind projects and a grid connection process that can take an average of five years are also routinely cited by developers as among the industry’s biggest challenges.

“In a number of areas investment has increased,” Prakash Sharma, vice president of scenarios and technologies at Wood Mackenzie said in an interview. “But then when it comes to some of those permitting and approvals that are required to push projects forward, or infrastructure development, that’s an issue which IRA cannot solve.”

Tight supplies and strong demand for renewables from utilities and corporations have also driven up contract prices, which could mean higher costs for consumers. Solar contract prices rose 4% to hit $50/MWh for the first time ever in the third quarter, according to tracking firm LevelTen.

Vic Abate, Chief Executive of GE Vernova’s wind business, said progress is happening more slowly than some had anticipated, but was not fundamentally off course.

“I’m not betting against the IRA,” he said in an interview. “This is more of a question of when. If last year people were thinking ’23 to ’24, it’s probably more ’24 to ’25.”

The IRA aims to shore up the U.S. clean energy supply chain by incentivizing domestic production of equipment like solar panels and wind turbines, but recently manufacturers have warned that a wave of new Asian capacity is threatening the viability of dozens of planned American factories.

Turmoil in the nascent U.S. offshore wind industry, meanwhile, is perhaps the most high profile setback. Developers like Orsted, BP and Equinor have sought to renegotiate or cancel contracts due to soaring costs, and have taken multi-billion dollar writedowns on projects. Players also largely failed to show up for a federal sale of wind leases in the Gulf of Mexico in August. The Biden administration’s target of deploying 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030 is now widely regarded as unattainable.

Meanwhile, some corporations are delaying investment decisions while awaiting the Treasury Department to craft rules on how the IRA’s tax credits can be used.

Robert Walther, director of federal affairs at ethanol maker POET, for example, says his company is waiting on the design of tax credits for sustainable aviation fuel under the IRA, to see whether the corn-based fuel can qualify as a feedstock.

“We’re not pulling the trigger on anything until we know what the value of these tax credits are,” Walther said.

Still, the U.S. can be proud of how it is tackling climate change, particularly when compared with the Trump administration’s relatively recent efforts to roll back policies that protect the climate, according to Dan Reicher, a scholar at Stanford University.

“These are the normal ups and downs of clean energy development and deployment,” Reicher said.

“I think we can go to COP with our chin held high that we’re making some real progress.”

(Reporting by Nichola Groom; Editing by Richard Valdmanis and Alistair Bell)

Source: Reuters 

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As the COP28 climate conference opens in Dubai next week, Brazil will be presenting a contradiction to the world: while promising to accelerate its energy transition, the country continues to invest massively in oil.

One of the key movers in this area is Petrobras. In April, the country’s state oil company created a new directorate to oversee its work on the energy transition and renewables. Meanwhile, in a statement about its 2024-2028 strategy, to be launched this Friday, the company says it will invest 11.5 billion reais (US$2,35 billion) in low-carbon projects, without suddenly giving up oil production.

Petrobras is also pushing for permission to drill for at the Foz do Amazonas Basin, a project still awaiting an environmental licence, and one that has proven controversial due its possible threats to a sensitive and biodiverse area of the Amazon. The company is also eyeing international expansion, having announced its intention to open a subsidiary in China in 2024, with the aim of facilitating trade and partnerships between the two countries.

There is much speculation about Petrobras’ next steps as its 2023-2027 strategic plan – launched during the administration of former president Jair Bolsonaro – deepened the company’s commitment to fossil fuels and buried renewable energy projects, according to André Luis Ferreira, executive director of the Institute for Energy and Environment (IEMA), and an environmental management professor at the University of São Paulo. Under the previous plan, Petrobras planned to spend less than 1% of its total investments on clean energies.

“With the new government [of President Lula], we’ve seen talk that [Petrobras] is going to invest in renewables again,” says Ferreira. “We need to pay attention to this movement and the new plan, to what the discourse and practice will be like.”

Various studies and organisations have highlighted the need for countries to drastically reduce and eventually phase out fossil fuels. A study published in Nature, for example, estimates that oil and gas production should be reduced by 3% a year globally by 2050 in order to limit global warming to 1.5C by the end of the century – a target accepted by Paris Agreement signatories, including Brazil, to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Contrary to that trajectory, the growth in Brazil’s oil production exceeded expectations in October, with the country setting new records for output, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency.

Petrobras finds Chinese partners

The proposal to set up a subsidiary in Asia will bring Petrobras closer to its biggest international client: China. The country is the main destination for Petrobras’ sales abroad, and accounted for 40% of its oil exports in the third quarter of this year.

The oil company’s chief executive, Jean Paul Prates, described China as “a decisive partner in Petrobras’ strategy to regain its global presence,” after the company saw its net exports fall in 2022 by 28% from the previous year. Petrobras is still recovering from a tumble in 2021, when it saw its market value plunge by more than 100 billion reais (US$19 billion) in only two days amid political interference in the state-owned company.

The proposed subsidiary is also an attempt to strengthen ties with China, according to Prates, after a friction-filled four years during the Bolsonaro government. “It’s important for them. It is an interesting signal, saying that in the same way that we have a Petrobras America, we will have a Petrobras China, because both countries are equally important to us,” he told Reuters in August, during a visit to China.

Prates’ visit saw agreements signed with state-owned firms CNOOC and Sinopec to collaborate in the energy sector, namely oil exploration. For China, such partnerships offer opportunities to secure reserves for the world’s second oil-consuming nation, behind only the United States. But despite its place as among the top oil consumers and greenhouse gas emitters, China has also invested heavily in renewable energies. Developing closer ties with companies in the country means Petrobras would have the opportunity to gain expertise in renewables, analysts say.

“Oil can be an inducement for investment in partnerships… in technologies that are not so mature today, such as green hydrogen, in which China is more advanced,” says economist Luciano Losekann, coordinator of the energy and regulation group at Fluminense Federal University.

During his China trip, Prates also signed several memoranda of understanding with the China Development Bank and the Bank of China, to advance cooperation in low-carbon business and green finance, among other initiatives, without detailing what specific actions these would involve. He also indicated an intention for Petrobras to invest in green hydrogen, lithium batteries and offshore wind energy – sectors within which China is already a leading presence.

China could be a great ally in these respects, says Losekann. Data from the China Global Investment Tracker shows that direct investments by Chinese companies in overseas renewable energy (excluding hydropower) have increased sixfold from US$140 million in 2018 to US$800 million in 2022.

The notion that Petrobras has a responsibility to finance Brazil’s energy transition has already appeared in the speeches of both President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has called on the company to invest in research into renewable fuels, and Helder Barbalho, governor of the state of Pará, the likely host of COP30 climate summit in 2025. On the eve of his departure for COP28 in Dubai, Barbalho told the Valor Econômico newspaper that he was in talks with the president of Petrobras over plans for the oil company to allocate resources to the bioeconomy and protection of the Amazon.

However, in October, the governor said that he was also in favour of carrying out oil surveys in the Equatorial Margin, a maritime region that encompasses the north of Brazil, including Pará and the Foz do Amazonas Basin, at the meeting of the Amazon and the Atlantic.

“The question is whether Brazil should maintain its appetite, opening up new frontiers of exploration, or plan a gradual transformation of this industry,” says Losekann. “The time to make oil finance the transition to zero emissions is now, not in the indefinite future.”

Oil investment to continue for Brazil

Petrobras’ not-so-green moves are in line with the Lula administration’s plans to allocate even more resources to the oil and gas sector than his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro – despite having put the environment at the centre of his election campaign. The company’s new multi-year plan – which defines the strategic objectives during the current government term, and is currently being debated in Brazil’s congress – foresees spending 479 billion reais ($97 billion) in the sector over four years, compared to 364 billion reais ($74 billion) by the previous government over the same period.

The plan was also unprecedented in its inclusion of an energy transition programme, with 937 million reais ($191 million) allocated towards such initiatives – representing just 0.2% of the resources earmarked for the oil sector, as highlighted in an analysis by the Institute for Socio-Economic Studies (INESC).

“Although it is an agenda that places Brazil as a strategic player on the global stage, when we look at the public budget proposed by the government for next year, policies for the energy transition simply disappear,” states the report, which was launched in September. Brazil also intends to continue investing in oil exploration in the pre-salt layer in the deep waters off the Brazilian coast, with Petrobras planning to install 11 new platforms by 2027.

Another project already underway is the building of a 45 billion reais ($9 billion) platform in the pre-salt of the Campos Basin, off the south-east coast of Brazil, due to be inaugurated in 2028. The consortium for the project includes Petrobras, Norway’s Equinor and the Spanish-Chinese joint venture Repsol Sinopec.

For economist Losekann, exploiting the pre-salt this decade, which he describes as one of China’s main interests in Brazil, “is inevitable”.

Brazil would have a lot to offer in terms of research and development in a partnership with China, according to Rejane Rocha, a researcher from the China-Brazil Centre for Innovative Technologies, Climate Change and Energy at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. “Brazil is one of the countries that transfers the most technology [with partners], and has expertise in deepwater exploration that is of great interest to the Chinese,” she says.

Petrobras was approached for comment but said through its press office that it would not comment on issues related to the ongoing negotiations with Chinese entities, nor its role in the national energy transition plans.

In the meantime, Petrobras is set to be present at COP28 in Dubai, with other state-owned oil companies, their goals for decarbonising the sector.

But will these goals include compensating for their outsized contribution to climate change? A new study by the Climate Analytics policy institute estimated the damage caused by greenhouse gas emissions and the earnings of 25 oil companies between 1985 and 2018, including Petrobras. According to its authors, the state-owned company – which appears in 17th place in a list topped by Saudi Aramco – could have been responsible for $500 billion in climate losses and damage. In the same period, it accumulated around $700 billion in profits.

COP28, for which Brazil will be sending around 2,400 delegates, will likely put the tensions between national priorities, climate protection and continued exploration for oil under the spotlight.

For IEMA’s Ferreira, Brazil is trying to spin multiple plates. “It seems to me that Petrobras isn’t just going for fossil fuels. It’s betting on both,” he says. “The oil industry is going to have to go into renewables, and it [Petrobras] is already doing so. There will be no energy transition if the oil money doesn’t migrate to renewables either. The question is how fast.”

Source: Dialogochino.net

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The OPEC+ group has made progress in talks with its African producers over their oil output quotas next year, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Friday, after the alliance had to postpone this weekend’s meeting over the spat.

On Wednesday, OPEC said that the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this weekend would be postponed to November 30, which sent oil prices tumbling over fears of disagreements in the group about the next move in its oil production policy.

OPEC’s African members Angola and Nigeria have reportedly asked to have a higher production ceiling next year, after taking a cut in their quotas at the June 2023 meeting of OPEC+ as they had consistently failed to pump to their quotas.

Angola, Congo and Nigeria were forced to commit to lower oil production in 2024, and the originally scheduled November 26 meeting could potentially have pressured them to make further production cuts, as the Saudis express discontent over compliance with the deal as it shoulders the bulk of the burden, according to reports this week.

Before the announcement of a delay in the meeting, which will be held online next week, most analysts had expected that OPEC’s top producer, Saudi Arabia, would extend its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) into 2024, considering the latest slide in oil prices to $80 and the typically weak period for oil demand in the first quarter of every year. Market talk was also intensifying that OPEC+ could announce a deeper cut.

OPEC+ will likely reach an agreement at the meeting next week, one of Reuters’ sources said on Friday, feeling “with 99% of confidence” there would be a deal.

Two other sources told Reuters that the group was close to reaching a compromise with the African producers on the levels of their crude oil production next year.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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When sitting down years ago to decide on how to do a podcast, it never crossed my mind that conversations like today’s would be possible. I had the pleasure of sitting down with Robert Brooks, Founder and chairman, of RBAC, to cover the global LNG and natural gas markets.

Wow we had a great talk, and you can tell from the timeline that we covered the entire global market. RBAC is the leading Energy Market Simulation System to help in M&A, risk analysis, planning, and commodity trading. In order to understand the modeling tools, you have to understand the complex supply, demand, and geopolitical issues. Their tools are critical, but how do you put a price on energy security?

Thank you Dr. Brooks for stopping by the podcast again! This was a great discussion, and I can’t wait to get another update. – Stu

00:00 – Intro

01:08 – Dr. Robert Brooks discusses his optimism for African self-empowerment, acknowledging challenges like corrupt leadership and poverty but emphasizing the potential to utilize abundant resources for development.

05:47 – Tell us a little bit about what you do and the importance of your global market.

10:29 – Dr. Brooks shares insights from his presentation at a DMG conference in China, focusing on energy security. Highlights include China’s substantial natural gas production, extensive use of LNG import terminals, challenges in massive cities, and transportation systems.

16:04 – Description of Beijing’s cleanliness, green spaces, and cultural emphasis on aesthetics. Positive experiences with considerate people are mentioned, along with the evolving nature of China’s natural gas markets despite top-down control.

21:36 – How much are they trying to put in for natural gas versus coal in their mix? Do you know?

23:14 – China’s approach to energy security, highlighting their reliance on coal for domestic production, slow development of local gas resources, and a diversified strategy involving Central Asian pipelines, Russian gas deals, and LNG imports to mitigate challenges and ensure energy stability.

26:10 – Doesn’t Egypt have spare capacity to export out?

30:20 – Mention of France’s long-term natural gas contracts with Norway and considerations of LNG storage and transportation logistics, including the strategic use of tankers as floating storage.

32:39 – The logistics and cost considerations of LNG storage and transportation, noting the strategic use of tankers as floating storage to minimize costs and maximize profits based on market conditions.

35:48 – Don’t long term contracts go to more stable geopolitical scenarios?

37:36 – Is determining the viability of contracts, especially through pricing models, a core function of RBAC’s software for companies?

39:59 – Do you factor in if the country buys in a ton of LNG tankers, does that matter?

43:09 – How does a model take into consideration the the shifting of effort may go to natural gas as the princess at the ball if you would.

46:52 – Dr. Brooks discusses liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as an energy solution, emphasizing its benefits in developing countries due to lower costs and job creation in the supply chain. The conversation touches on the humanitarian aspect of providing reliable energy sources, particularly in rural areas.

52:35 – Tell us any thoughts that you have. It can be wide open. Tell me what you’re thinking on the last thoughts here.

56:06 – Where people can find you?

5:21 – Outro

Follow Dr. Brooks on LinkedIn HERE: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-brooks-ph-d-8081231/

More information on RBAC HERE: https://rbac.com/

Dr. Robert Brooks first interview: ENB #132 Robert Brooks Ph.D, Founder & Chairman, RBAC, Inc. – Insights to the global natural gas, LNG and geopolitical impacts on the energy market.

Other RABC Interviews:

ENB #145 Africa’s response to the West’s self-serving fiscal and energy policies with the Secretary General of African Petroleum Producers Organization (APPO)

ENB #142 Why is the Climate Crisis racist where Africa is concerned? The West policies towards Africa are like environmental racism. – Alex Epstien – Video UPDATE

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ENB Pub Note: This LinkedIn article from Fei Xu has some great information about the market re-balancing of China’s reselling of LNG shipments. What she fails to cover in this article is the second-order magnitude impact. This again allows another avenue for Russia, Iran, and others to bypass Western sanctions placed on their energy exports rendering sanctions useless, and giving China even more power.

Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (China)

We believe Chinese LNG re-export activity will continue to grow this winter, as global volatility and arbitrage opportunities persist. As Chinese players become increasingly adept at LNG trading, in the aftermath of last year’s astronomical geographical arbitrage, China has grown its LNG re-exports to 14 cargos in the first ten months of 2023, from eight in the same period of 2022, according to ICIS’s LNG Edge trade flows.

Apart from monetary gains, the need to comply with Take-or-Pay (ToP) liability under strict destination clauses also supports re-export growth amid slowing domestic demand. In the longer term, the recently approved bonded LNG tanks (tax-free storage) at Ningbo and Dalian LNG terminals, and PipeChina’s latest third-party-access (TPA) service will enable more Chinese traders to reload LNG to international markets.

China LNG re-exports will eventually increase terminal utilization and flexibility in balancing Chinese demand and the wider Asia region.

Analysis

Chinese re-exports surged when lucrative arbitrage opportunities emerged in 2022.

Re-export activities in China ramped up significantly in 2022. A re-export is when traders reload an already discharged LNG cargo back onto a vessel for export to other countries. Chinese traders were facing stagnated gas demand due to COVID and economic slowdown at the time. Meanwhile, Asian spot prices soared well above the domestic sales price. As a result, the excess of contractual LNG in China became cost-competitive resources to be sold into other markets.

Prior to May 23, when spot prices fell and arbitrage narrowed, Chinese traders managed to resell 15 cargos since 2022, an equivalent to 0.9 million tonnes to the international market at an average price of $33/MMbtu. The estimated average margin for re-exports in 2022 reached as much as $62 million per cargo.

China’s muted domestic demand made it stand out as an obvious choice for LNG re-export supplier in Asia. The main buyers of Chinese re-exports were South Korea and Japan, accounting for 67% of the volume so far, followed by Thailand, Kuwait and Bangladesh.

Chinese re-exports remain profitable this winter.

In the near term, ICIS EAX, the North Asia spot index is estimated to hover around $16/MMbtu, whereas the estimated average term LNG cost into China would be $10 to $12/MMbtu. ICIS arbitrage calculator suggests that re-selling an LTC cargo to the Asian markets remains profitable at the Yangpu terminal in China, with margins varying from $1.5/MMbtu to $4/MMbtu. Thailand presents ample potential for achieving the highest profit margin, closely trailed by Singapore and Taiwan.

Strict ToP obligations with destination clause has forced Chinese players to turn to re-exports.

PetroChina International (PCI) has been the dominant player in the re-export activities so far, followed by JOVO Group, according to market comments. Both possess contracted volumes that exceed domestic demand.

PetroChina almost doubled its LNG Long-term contracts (LTC) volumes in 2019 to ensure the nation’s gas supply security. However, with the ease of the coal-to-gas switch and a slowdown of LNG demand growth, PetroChina has only imported less than 80% of its contracted volume in the same period, according to ICIS LNG Edge’s vessel tracking database. In the year 2022, we estimate PetroChina re-exported 2% of its total contracted volume. Similarly, Jovo’s Dongguan LNG terminal import peaked in 2020 and has been severely underutilized since. Since 2022, JOVO Group has been actively expanding its LNG business beyond the Southern market where the Dongguan terminal is located, including the international market.

Re-exports emerge as the ideal gateway to avoid financial losses and offset market volatility, meanwhile still in compliance with the strict ToP obligations and destination clauses.

As tax-free bonded LNG tank capacity increases so will re-export trades.

The re-export activities rely on the availability of bonded tank infrastructures. Due to its tax-free status, such facilities help to reduce the overall cost of LNG re-export.

Having experienced the substantial profit gains of arbitrage trades in 2022, the Chinese government and state enterprises swiftly expanded the nation’s bonded tank capacity by over 66% the following year. In the past few months, China has further approved another 2 bonded LNG tanks with a total capacity of 320,000 cubic meters. This will enable a bigger portion of import volumes to participate in re-export trades.

CNOOC Zhejiang Ningbo LNG terminal had its first re-export activity in September 2023, 3 months after its second bonded tank was approved. The PipeChina Dalian LNG terminal re-exported its first cargo in November 2023, delivered to Thailand in late November 2023, according to ICIS LNG Edge vessel tracking.

More market players will have access to the re-export with PipeChina’s new bonded LNG re-loading service starting in April 2024.

Between November 2023 and January 2024, PipeChina will accept requests for medium to long-term terminal usage bookings from third parties. PipeChina has also announced that the three 160,000 cubic meters bonded LNG tanks in the Dalian and Hainan Yangpu LNG terminals can provide tax-free reloading services to the public. The minimum booking for the new reloading services is three years – to a maximum of 20 years, similar to the existing TPA service.

Conclusion

Re-exports will be a new leverage for Chinese traders to optimize terminal utilization and portfolio management. It will also benefit the Asian market, in the case of global supply disruptions and market balancing. Chinese re-exports are expected to significantly increase going forward if volatility and significant arbitrage opportunities persist. We also expect a greater number of Chinese market participants in international LNG trading through re-exports following PipeChina’s latest re-loading services at the Yangpu and Dalian LNG terminals.

Fei Xu, Senior Energy Market Analyst

Source: LinkedIn

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