Russia’s Oil Exports Climb Despite Its Commitment To Cut Supply

Energy News Beat

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Russia’s crude oil exports by sea have been exceeding the country’s targeted export reductions as part of the OPEC+ pact for weeks, with the most recent week’s observed shipments as high as 360,000 barrels per day (bpd) above target, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday. Despite edging lower, four-week average volumes exceeded it by almost 200,000 barrels a day in the most recent period.

In the week to October 29, Russia shipped around 3.64 million bpd of crude oil from its oil export terminals, up by 110,000 compared to the week prior, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.

Higher shipments out of the port of Novorossiysk in the Black Sea contributed to most of the gains in crude flows from Russia in the last week of October and were only partially offset by a lower number of crude oil tankers that left Russia’s ports in the Baltic Sea and on the Pacific.

The four-week average crude oil shipments out of Russia were slightly lower at 3.48 million bpd in the week to October 29, a drop of around 20,000 bpd compared to the four-week average in the four weeks to October 22.

Even this slightly lower 3.48 million bpd export volume for the average of the four weeks to October 29 was nearly 200,000 bpd higher than the exports Russia would have to ideally stick to in order to fulfill its pledge to cut exports by 300,000 bpd, Bloomberg notes.

Russia has never been quite clear about what exports it is cutting and how it calculates those volumes.

Russia’s commitment to reduce its oil exports by 300,000 bpd includes oil products, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier this month in remarks that sowed further confusion about how much oil supply Russia is really withholding from the market.

Russia has pledged to reduce its oil exports by 300,000 bpd until the end of 2023, in a show of solidarity with its OPEC+ partner Saudi Arabia, which is voluntarily reducing its oil production by 1 million bpd until 2023.

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Russia poised to ‘sharply increase’ oil exports in November – Kpler

Energy News Beat

Analysts link the move to maintenance works at several refineries and higher global crude prices

Russia is likely to sharply increase oil exports in November, business daily Kommersant reported on Tuesday, citing Kpler analysts.

According to the report, the country’s seaborne shipments are set to surge by some 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month compared to October, reaching up to 3.7 million bpd – the highest levels since May.

Analysts note that the spike in exports is expected to come amid continued maintenance works at several Russian refineries, which forced companies to redirect oil for export.

However, most repairs at refineries are expected to be completed by November 15, which may cause a drop in oil exports from December onward.

Another possible reason for the increase in Russian oil exports is the surge in global crude prices, Kpler experts say. Moscow had been forced to redirect oil shipments to Asian markets amid Western sanctions and a price cap imposed on the country’s crude.

Russia also started to gradually reduce its output in order to adjust to changes and support global prices, which at the time dropped to around $72 per barrel. However, crude prices have since recovered amid reduced supplies from Saudi Arabia and, more recently, the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at roughly $88 per barrel.


READ MORE:
Russia’s oil revenues surge – IEA

The seasonal drop in domestic demand for fuel, along with Russia’s current restrictions on the export of gasoline and diesel, may also create the conditions for the redirection of crude oil for export, analysts predict.

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT’s business section

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Watch: Pro-Palestinian Activists Throw Box Of Live Rats Into British McDonald’s

Energy News Beat

Pro-Palestinian activists in the west (many of them far-leftists with no ties to Palestinians or Muslim culture) have called for boycotts and punishment directed at any major companies seen as providing aid to Israel. 

McDonald’s angered the woke mob recently with its offer of free food to members of the Israeli military (McDonald’s also gave $1 million to the Red Cross and the World Food Program providing aid to Palestinians), while Starbucks and Google have triggered their wrath as well.

Given that woke activism has been on the decline in terms of effectiveness and many in the public have taken to ignoring their demands, protesters are changing their tactics in some bizarre ways.  

Customers were waiting for meals at the McDonald’s branch at the Star City leisure complex in Birmingham as an activist threw a box of what appear to be rats into the building.

The rats were spray painted the colors of the Palestinian flag…

Actions like this might be sending a message that pro-Palestinians did not intend.

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EU looks to expand sanctions on Russia – Bloomberg

Energy News Beat

The bloc has so far imposed 11 packages of restrictions against Moscow over the Ukraine conflict

The European Union is in talks on a new round of sanctions that would impact some €5 billion ($5.3 billion) in trade with Russia, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing its sources.

According to the report, the bloc’s 12th package will tighten restrictions on Moscow’s revenue sources and industry.

People familiar with the matter told the news agency that the new measures could include export restrictions on welding machines, chemicals and technology used for military purposes. The EU is reportedly also considering software license bans and restrictive measures on imports of a small number of processed metals and aluminum products, as well as construction items, transportation-related goods, and diamonds.

The sources suggested that the newly proposed import and export measures on Russia would add up to about €2.5 billion each. The diamond ban is reportedly dependent on a G7 agreement to track and trace the precious stones across borders. The measure is expected to be finalized soon, the sources said.

“The package aims to disrupt Russia’s ability to skirt existing bans through third countries, where it gets access to components, technologies and electronics used in weapons in Ukraine or to manufacture them,” Bloomberg wrote.


READ MORE:
Anti-Russia sanctions have failed – billionaire tycoon

Brussels is looking to add more goods to an existing transit ban and list additional companies in third countries, the sources claimed.

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German Defense Chief Says Public Must Get Used To Possibility Of ‘War In Europe’

Energy News Beat

Starting last month, top Ukrainian officials began pushing an alarmist narrative that “world war 3 has already begun” – as the head Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Aleksey Danilov had claimed in early September. The words were spoken after it became clear that Ukraine’s military was losing, and now Time magazine has confirmed the military doesn’t have the manpower to fight off the Russians. Naturally, Kiev must find new ways to draw in more direct support of key European powers.

“If somebody thinks that World War III hasn’t started then it’s a huge mistake. It has already begun. It had been underway in a hybrid period for some time and has now entered an active phase,” Danilov said before the Kiev Security Forum at the time (early Sept). More than a month later, some European leaders have begun to echo the same warning.

Significantly, this week Germany Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in a media interview that German residents must start getting used to the idea of the specter of war in Europe.

“We have to get used to the idea that there may be a threat of war in Europe,” he said in the national broadcast interview. “Germany must be able to defend itself. We must be prepared for war.”

He was responding to questions related to Germany being slow to rearmament itself in the wake of the Russian war in Ukraine, and now with the prospect of the Gaza-Israel conflict spilling over into broader Mideast regional war:

He believes that the conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s war against Ukraine shall have consequences for German society. In particular, Germany must be able to defend itself, and this applies to both the Bundeswehr and society.

“We have to become capable of fighting,” Pistorius said.

“Unfortunately, everything that has been spoiled for 30 years cannot be fixed in 19 months,” Pistorius admitted in the fresh remarks. But he still pushed back against the critics:

Pistorius rejected accusations that the federal government was too slow to react to the so-called turning point. He stressed that not only had a €100 billion special fund for the Bundeswehr been set up, but that state bodies had also been changed.

Germany has meanwhile been among those western powers which see conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe as related, with Russia being a prime bad actor exacerbating tensions (the Kremlin has in turn said the same thing about the West, and the US in particular).

On Monday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg claimed that President Vladimir Putin is taking joy in the crisis in the Middle East. “We can see that the Russian president is certainly happy, given the situation in the Middle East. That is why we are looking at Ukraine even more closely than we have done in the past,” she said.

Zelensky too has expressed increased concern that world powers have taken their eye off the ball as they focus on events in Gaza. But Defense Minister Pistorius has along with Baerbock sought to assure the Ukrainians that Berlin will not lessen its support to Kiev based on the Israel-Gaza conflict.

A fresh segment on Russian TV wherein popular pundits threaten war on Germany:

Meanwhile, Germany’s new ‘turn’ toward rebuilding its military could helping drive new populist politicians’ efforts at curtailing this new expanse of Berlin’s reviving military-industrial complex:

Wagenknecht’s politics clearly resonate with the German public. A recent survey of German voters found that 14% would vote for a Wagenknecht party, putting it just one point behind the governing Social Democrats (SPD) and two points ahead of the Green party. It speaks to the breadth of Wagenknecht’s coalition that, if initial polls are to be believed, she would take votes not only from her own former political home, but also from the centre-right CDU, the left-leaning Greens and the pro-business FDP. Most of all, though, Wagenknecht is trying to appeal to a section of AfD voters. Much of the party’s success in recent elections, she claims, comes from Germans who “don’t vote for the AfD because they’re rightwing. They vote for the AfD because they’re angry.” Wagenknecht’s attempts to siphon off the AfD’s protest voters currently seems like the only viable plan to mitigate the far-right party’s electoral success.

Far left and far right movements in Germany, and broadly in Europe remain distrustful of increased military spending, especially accompanied by politicians’ pleas for society to “prepare for war” – while silencing voices which seek ceasefire and a diplomatic offramp.

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N.C. manufacturers move to abolish Duke Energy customer assistance program, dismaying advocates

Energy News Beat

A powerful consortium of pulp mills, pipe foundries and other manufacturers has moved to block an aid program for Duke Energy’s poorest residential customers — provoking dismay among the clean energy advocates who had championed it.

Set to begin early next year, the Customer Assistance Program would give a $42 discount for 12 months to customers struggling to pay their electric bills, more than offsetting coming rate hikes. Large industrial customers would help pay for the program with a $1.70 monthly fee.

The Utilities Commission this summer greenlit the initiative for Duke Energy Progress, covering eastern and parts of western North Carolina, and had been expected to do the same for Duke Energy Carolinas. Some 124,000 households were predicted to benefit.

But in a pair of Oct. 17 filings, the Carolina Industrial Group for Fair Utility Rates claimed regulators lacked authority to order the program and said it violated the principle that one class of customers shouldn’t subsidize another.

Pending an appeal to the state Supreme Court to overrule the program that could take years to resolve, the industrial group asked the Utilities Commission to delay it.

“No party to this proceeding would be prejudiced by entry of a limited stay of the Order,” the industrial group said in its motion.

In a flurry of responses filed this week, numerous parties said otherwise.

“Staying implementation of the [program] while the matter is appealed could result in irreparable harm to otherwise eligible low-income ratepayers,” wrote Robert Josey, an attorney with Public Staff, the state-sanctioned customer advocate.

And in a press release, a chorus of advocates including the state NAACP and the North Carolina Housing Coalition said it would be “shameful” if factories with monthly bills in the tens of thousands of dollars toppled the program over a fee that amounted to a rounding error.

“While large industrial and manufacturing customers are up in arms about an additional $1.70 a month, there are people all across our state struggling to keep the lights on,” said Mikaela Curry, field manager with the Sierra Club.

The notion that no one would be negatively impacted by the program’s suspension caused special alarm.

“It’s just not true,” said David Neal, senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center, in an interview. “Tens of thousands of people would be prejudiced. It would be dreadful.”

Beyond its potential harm to low-income families, Neal says the industrial group’s legal challenge doesn’t make financial sense: It could easily cost more than its members’ $1.70 monthly charges. “It’s misguided and irrational,” he said.

Manufacturing customers will already see lower rate hikes than other customer classes, advocates pointed out to the commission. While Duke requested residential increases in the 20% range, they proposed 11% for some of their largest industrial customers.

Far from representing a cross-class subsidy, the $1.70 fee is most likely a bargain for large customers, who would otherwise chip in for unpaid bills from disconnected residential accounts.

“There’s great evidence in the record that it’s going to reduce the amount of bad debt otherwise recovered from all customer classes,” Neal said. “If you didn’t have any contribution from industrial customers, they would be getting a benefit without having paid the cost.”

He also dismissed the idea that the Utilities Commission needs explicit direction from the state legislature to implement the program.

For one thing, a 2021 law allows the panel to consider whether multi-year rate increase applications — such as that submitted by Duke — reduce low-income energy burdens. What’s more, Duke Energy Carolinas has run a much smaller assistance program for older, low-income customers since 1978, and the General Assembly has never objected.

“The idea that there’s something unlawful here,” Neal said, “doesn’t fit with the commission’s broad authority to set rates that are in the public interest and fair and reasonable.”

Still, the industrial group’s appeal, which the Republican-controlled state Supreme Court must hear by law, has high stakes. “They’re saying the commission does not have the authority to ever institute a low-income bill payment assistance program,” Neal said. “That’s really aggressive.”

The members of the Carolina Industrial Group for Fair Utility Rates are not publicized, but they originated with the pulp and paper industry and are separated according to which utility serves them.

While the Duke Energy customer groups have formed alliances with clean energy and low-income advocates before, executives at the prominent member Charlotte Pipe and Foundry Company have also denied climate science and decried renewables.

Christina Cress, the attorney representing the group’s entities before the Utilities Commission, declined to comment for this story, citing the pending case for Duke Energy Carolinas.

For now, consumer and clean energy advocates are looking to regulators to save the customer assistance plan.

“This program has the support of the public staff, Duke Energy, the utility commission, and advocacy groups across the state,” said Reggie Shuford, the executive director of the North Carolina Justice Center, in a release. “It should not be derailed by a group of faceless corporate entities.”

But Neal also holds out hope that the industrial group itself will reconsider its decision and reverse course.

“I really believe that most industrial customers in North Carolina want to be good corporate citizens,” he said. “If they really looked at this, they would be happy to pay $1.70 knowing that they’re contributing to something that improves the lives of the people of this state.”

He added, “that’s why I’m hopeful that there’s a path forward.”

Clarification: This story has been updated to remove a reference to a member of the Dominion Energy customer group. The Carolina Industrial Group for Fair Utility Rates is divided into separate organizations based on utility territories, and the company named in an earlier version of this story is part of a division not involved with the challenge.

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bp interim CEO denies U.S. shale acquisition claims, defends focus on energy transition

Energy News Beat

World Oil

(Bloomberg) – bp Plc’s temporary boss gave a robust defense of the company’s strategy, batting away suggestions that he needs to follow the big oil deals done by U.S. competitors Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp.

Source: World Oil

“We’re focused really on transition” to net zero emissions, Interim Chief Executive Officer Murray Auchincloss said on Tuesday. bp’s growth engines will be clean energy “and not the oil and gas side.”

Speaking at his first earnings presentation since taking the top job after the surprise resignation of former CEO Bernard Looney, Auchincloss reiterated his commitment to his predecessor’s plan and questioned the wisdom of acquisitions when crude prices are high.

“At $90 oil, I’m not sure it makes sense for us to pursue very many oil and gas transactions given the scale of our resource base,” Auchincloss said on a call with analysts.

In the past month, Exxon and Chevron agreed a pair of takeovers together worth more than $100 billion, both of which are intended to boost oil and gas production growth. The deals threaten to widen the oil and gas industry’s trans-Atlantic valuation gap as investors reward the U.S. majors for doubling down on the superior returns from fossil fuels.

“I feel very confident that we’ll be able to continue to close that gap over time,” Auchincloss said. “We’re seeing heavy U.S. investment into the company.”

bp has adjusted its low-carbon ambitions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — pledging to keep its oil and gas output flat for the rest of this decade. In contrast, Exxon expects to more than double its production in the Permian shale formation through the takeover of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.

Auchincloss didn’t rule out bp deals altogether.

“If I can do something counter-cyclical, I will,” he said in a separate interview with Bloomberg. “If I can find barrels that are cheap, that we think fit well into our portfolio near our operations, then I will.”

However, when it comes to the U.S., Auchincloss said the company didn’t need to buy additional barrels. bp has 8 Bbbl of resources to develop in in its Paleogene reservoirs of the Gulf of Mexico and 7 Bbbl from its shale business BPX Energy.

“We don’t really feel we need more acreage,” Auchincloss said. “We’re very, very happy with our position in the U.S.”

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Commentary: The benefits of virtual power plants and solar in low-income communities

Energy News Beat

The following commentary was written by Larry Glover, a Maryland-based energy marketing & communications subject matter expert and community engagement specialist. See our commentary guidelines for more information.

We just lived through the hottest summer in recorded human history. From coast to coast, the United States set heat records, the brunt of which underserved communities felt the most

One thing we were fortunate enough not to experience this time were rolling blackouts due to energy shortfalls. But we came close. In Texas, for example, rooftop solar helped keep the state’s grid online during the hottest summer on record.

Despite its benefits, the real value of rooftop solar isn’t always acknowledged as a solution to climate change and the needs of our electricity grid. We have seen some states take the lead, but we must act quickly to leverage resources to benefit underserved communities.  

As climate disasters become more normal, our state and national grids will be tested more often. We can resolve this sad reality, however. Ensuring our nation’s clean energy movement is both inclusive and empowering has never been more important.

Here’s what I believe: Rooftop solar and batteries have a proven track record to deliver economic, community, and environmental benefits to everyone – and have the potential to positively impact our entire grid distribution for the better.

Not only are individual rooftop solar and battery systems critical for our clean energy future, but this technology can be connected and serve as a massive, distributed, power plant. Called a Virtual Power Plant (VPP), these networked systems can help bring value and grid stability and contribute to our clean air goals by reducing CO2 emissions.

For example, ConnectedSolutions has solar and battery system programs in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. The goal is to lower grid costs for all residents. Replicable programs such as these make it easier for home and small businesses to share their clean electrons when the grid needs it most, bolster climate and clean energy goals and help to mitigate unnecessary costs to grid infrastructure.

If we take the best of what we know and apply it to low-income and underserved communities, we can create energy solutions with enormous benefit to the communities that need it most. Harnessing the benefits of VPPs and connecting rooftop solar and batteries will deliver benefits with far greater impact than any of those initiatives applied individually. Bills introduced in Michigan this year (HB 4840 and HB 4839) proposed not only to create a virtual power plant, but also provide additional, targeted incentives to get batteries into the low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities that have experienced the most severe impacts of power outages.

In 2022, more than 140 million people across the US were impacted by either rolling blackouts or calls to conserve power due to extreme weather. The proven reliability of local solar and batteries is paramount to ensuring that all of our communities stay safe.

Building virtual power plants in LMI communities offers immense potential for positive change. In fact, the Department of Energy recently just released a new report about the benefits of VPPs, and they found that tripling VPP capacity from 80 gigawatts to 160 gigawatts by 2030 could save ratepayers $10 billion per year in grid costs. Earlier this year, Brattle released a report that found that VPPs could save utilities $15-$35 billion in capacity investments over the next 10 years. Regardless of which study turns out to be accurate, the opportunity before us is immense. It can provide reliable and affordable electricity access while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We should easily conclude that rooftop solar is a necessary element in the energy solution for communities.

There is a risk, however, that these innovative solutions may inadvertently exacerbate existing inequities if not implemented with careful consideration. The first step is ensuring equal access to virtual power plant programs. This means providing opportunities for participation regardless of income level or location. By doing so, we can avoid creating a situation where only certain privileged individuals or communities can benefit from these advancements in energy technology.

It is imperative that we address equity concerns to ensure that all community members can reap the benefits of virtual power plants. Ensuring equitable access is crucial in creating a sustainable and inclusive energy future for LMI communities. Virtual power plants have the potential to revolutionize our energy systems by enabling decentralized generation and distribution of electricity.

It is important to consider the specific needs and challenges faced by marginalized communities. By actively involving communities in the planning and implementation processes, we ensure that their voices are heard, and their unique circumstances are considered.

The benefits of implementing virtual power plants with rooftop solar and batteries in LMI communities is a game changer. How else can we address energy affordability, grid reliability, reduced energy costs, job creation and community empowerment all within one focused initiative. We know it comes with its challenges and obstacles. However, as we search for long term solutions that prepare all communities for the great energy transition this is surely a way to leave no community behind.

 

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U.S. crude production breaks records

Energy News Beat

Oil Price

U.S. crude oil production hit an all-time high in August, according to new data published by the Energy Information Administration on Tuesday, with production surpassing pre-covid levels. U.S. field production of crude oil reached 404.6 million barrels during the month of August, new EIA data shows, for an average of 13.05 million barrels per day–squarely breaking the previous record U.S. drillers set in July of 401.73 million barrels.

Source: Reuters

Increases in production were seen in PADDs 1, 2, 3, and 4, with the largest percentage increase in production seen in PADD 4, which comprises Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming. The largest actual increase was seen in PADD 2, which includes North Dakota, Illinois, and Kentucky, among other states.

Crude production in Texas in August—home to a large portion of the Permian Basin, rose from 173.775 million barrels to 174.562 million barrels.

Compared to this time last year, U.S. production is up by a total of 33 million barrels for the month.

The new record in crude production in the United States comes shortly after U.S. supermajor ExxonMobil spent $60B on purchasing another Permian player, Pioneer Natural Resources, although most oil companies in the United States have chosen fiscal restraint resulting in a slow and steady increase in output versus the no holds barred investment strategies during previous boom cycles.

Despite the record-breaking production levels seen in August, inventories of crude oil in the United States are estimated to be within 3 million barrels of where it began the year.

Analysts and traders have been watching drilling reports in the United States, with the latest count still 350 fewer active rigs than pre-pandemic levels.

WTI and Brent prices were trading flat to slightly up on Tuesday despite escalating tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas. At 12:40 pm ET, WTI was trading flat at $82.31—within $.50 per barrel of the price point a day before Hamas attacked Israel on October 7.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

 

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Marathon Petroleum tops profit estimates on strong fuel demand

Energy News Beat

Oil Price

Strong U.S. fuel demand helped Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) easily beat analyst estimates after reporting on Tuesday an adjusted net income of $3.2 billion for the third quarter of 2023. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $8.14, above the analyst consensus estimate of $7.75 compiled by The Wall Street Journal.

Source: Reuters

In the refining and marketing segment, adjusted EBITDA was $16.06 per barrel for the third quarter of 2023, down from $19.87 per barrel for the third quarter of 2022, due to lower market crack spreads.

The refining and marketing (R&M) margin for Marathon Petroleum was $26.16 per barrel for the third quarter of 2023, down from $30.21 per barrel for the third quarter of 2022.

Refining operating costs per barrel fell to $5.14 for the third quarter of 2023, versus $5.63 for the third quarter of 2022, primarily driven by lower energy costs, Marathon Petroleum said.

Crude capacity utilization was around 94%, resulting in total throughput of 3.0 million barrels per day (bpd) for the third quarter of 2023, the company said.

“The business generated $5 billion of net cash provided by operating activities and we returned $3.1 billion through share repurchases and dividends during the quarter,” President and CEO Michael J. Hennigan said.

“Demonstrating our commitment to return capital, we increased our quarterly dividend by 10% and increased our share repurchase authorization by $5 billion.”

Marathon Petroleum reported earnings days after Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO), the second largest U.S. refiner by capacity, opened the refiners’ earnings season, announcing last week higher-than-expected profits for the third quarter of 2023, amid continued strong product demand in America.

“Our refineries operated well and achieved 95 percent throughput capacity utilization, which is a testament to our team’s relentless focus on operational excellence,” said Lane Riggs, Valero’s CEO and president.

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), however, missed analyst expectations despite stronger refining margins compared to the second quarter.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

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