Diamondback Boosts Midland Basin Presence With $4-Billion Acquisition

Energy News BeatDiamondback Energy - Energy News Beat

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FANG) on Tuesday announced a deal to buy Double Eagle IV Midco in an acquisition valued at about $4 billion, which gives the buyer increased presence in the Midland Basin in the top-oil producing U.S. formation, the Permian.

Diamondback Energy has signed a definitive purchase agreement to buy certain subsidiaries of Double Eagle IV Midco, LLC in exchange for approximately 6.9 million shares of Diamondback common stock and $3 billion of cash, the company said, confirming earlier reports of the acquisition.

“Double Eagle is the most attractive asset remaining in the Midland Basin,” Diamondback chairman and CEO Travis Stice said in a statement.

finviz dynamic chart for  FANG

“With 407 locations adjacent to our core position, this largely undeveloped asset adds high-quality inventory that immediately competes for capital.”

Diamondback expects to fund the cash portion of the transaction through a combination of cash on hand, borrowings under the company’s credit facility and/or proceeds from term loans and senior notes offerings.

For Diamondback, this would be the second major deal in a year, after it took over Endeavor Energy Resources in 2024 in a deal with a price tag of $28 billion.

Concurrent with the Double Eagle deal, Diamondback also announced today it is committing to sell at least $1.5 billion of non-core assets to accelerate pro forma debt reduction in order to maintain a strong balance sheet. Diamondback expects to reduce net debt to $10 billion and, long term, maintain leverage of $6 billion to $8 billion.

Last year, the shale space saw a flurry of mergers and acquisitions, with the total hitting $105 billion. That was lower than the $192 billion in deals struck in 2023 but still a substantial sum.

This year, a slowdown in M&A, due to a lack of available reasonably-priced targets, is set to continue, according to energy analytics firm Enverus. Merger activity fell in the last quarter of 2024, but natural gas opportunities could help acquisitions rebound this year, Enverus said.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

 

From David Blackmon’s Subsack – 

Andrew Dittmar, Director at Enverus, said in an email that the deal means “Diamondback has taken over the mantel of being the premier large Permian pure play with broadly comparable scale to Pioneer at the time of its sale.” Diamondback’s market capitalization with the Double Eagle value added in would amount today to roughly $50 billion as compared to the $59.5 billion value of ExxonMobil’s buyout of Pioneer.

In its release on the deal, Diamondback highlighted the fact that the deal means it now holds roughly 40,000 net acres with a long-term run rate of 27 Mboe/d, of which 69% is oil, in the central fairway of the Midland Basin. Dittmar points out that this enhanced position means Diamondback ranks as the second-largest Midland Basin acreage holder behind ExxonMobil.

The deal for Double Eagle is in keeping with the overarching “bigger is better” trend that has largely driven the rapid consolidation in the Permian region over the last half-decade. Diamondback Energy has been a leader in this process, growing via a succession of acquisitions involving highly contiguous acreage positions to enhance economies of scale and drive down overall costs.

Noting that Diamondback appears to have paid a premium for the Double Eagle acreage and production, Dittmar says that is “not surprising given demand for assets in the Permian contrasted with few opportunities.”

As the number of Permian-focused corporate producers has diminished over time, acquiring companies have increasingly sought out privately held producers for growth opportunities. But now, after several years of that trend holding dominance, Dittmar points out few similar opportunities remain.

“Buying private assets has been fundamental to Permian Basin M&A, but after three years of furious consolidation there are very few remaining opportunities,” Dittmar writes. “Remaining private companies with high-quality drilling inventory like Fasken Oil & Ranch in the Midland Basin and Mewbourne Oil in the Delaware Basin are multi-generation family companies not necessarily interested in a sale like the private equity-built E&Ps.”

Dittmar also points out that, “in the past, private equity firms would reenter the play after a sale, but with inventory increasingly locked up by big companies not interested in selling, that has become far more challenging.”

Calling Double Eagle “the most attractive asset remaining in the Midland Basin,” Diamondback Chairman and CEO Travis Stice added that his management team has “worked tirelessly over the last thirteen years to position Diamondback to have the longest duration of high quality, low-breakeven inventory; a position we are solidifying with today’s announcement.” Stice also committed to divest at least $1.5 billion of non-core assets to accelerate pro forma debt reduction as part of the transaction.

The Bottom Line

A sober assessment of remaining Permian targets indicates this may be Stice’s last chance to announce a big transaction for awhile. Unless one of the family-owned independents decides the time has come to sell, or one of the really large independents like Devon Energy or Diamondback itself becomes a takeover target, the era of “bigger is better” could entering its final stages.

As Dittmar pointed out in late January, “finding a good strategic fit between assets and getting management team alignment has gotten more challenging. The industry will continue to consolidate, but likely not at the same breakneck pace seen during the last two years.”

Still, it is important to keep in mind something a wise industry colleague told me years ago: The only thing certain in the oil and gas industry is that nothing is certain.

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West will have to reconsider Russia sanctions as part of Ukraine peace deal – Rubio

Energy News BeatRubio

Ending the conflict could open up “historic” opportunities for US-Russian relations, the US secretary of state has said

The United States and its allies would have to address the sanctions imposed on Russia in order to achieve an “enduring, sustainable” solution to the Ukraine conflict, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told journalists in Riyadh on Tuesday. Washington is interested in developing economic cooperation with Moscow after the hostilities are brought to an end, he added.

Rubio held a press conference together with National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and special envoy Steve Witkoff after meeting the Russian delegation in Saudi Arabia’s capital. Moscow was represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, presidential foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov, and Kirill Dmitriev, the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF).

The two sides discussed the ongoing conflict as well as a range of bilateral issues like restoring diplomatic contacts. Both delegations hailed the meeting as constructive and positive.

Rubio said that the issue of sanctions relief could be a part of a peace process aimed at putting an end to the Ukraine conflict.

“In order to bring an end to any conflict, there have to be concessions made by all sides,” the secretary of state said. He added that he would not elaborate on the exact parameters of such concessions, adding that the issue had not been discussed with the Russian side as of yet.

The top US diplomat maintained that the process of sanctions removal would have to involve Washington’s allies in Europe as well. “The EU is going to be at the [negotiations] table at some point because they have sanctions as well that have been imposed,” he said.

The goal pursued by US President Donald Trump’s administration is to “bring an end to the conflict in a way that is fair, enduring, sustainable and acceptable to all parties involved,” Rubio said, adding that stopping the Ukraine conflict could open up some unprecedented opportunities for economic cooperation between Moscow and Washington.

The US would need to identify “credible opportunities … to partner with the Russians geopolitically, on issues of common interest and … economically on issues that hopefully will be good for the world and also improve our relations in the long term” once the Ukraine conflict is brought to an “acceptable end,” he said, adding that those opportunities could be “pretty unique” and “potentially historic.”

Over the past three years, the US and the EU have imposed unprecedented sanctions against Moscow. This policy has cost American companies an estimated $300 billion in losses associated with leaving the Russian market, according to RDIF data.

Source: Rt.com

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Rebuilding ties, finding common ground, Ukraine peace negotiations: key takeaways from Russia-US talks in Riyadh

Energy News BeatRussia-US

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has described the meeting with the US delegation as “useful” as both sides look to re-establish contacts

Russia and the US have taken the first steps towards normalizing relations after an impasse which lasted years under the Joe Biden administration.

Delegations from Moscow and Washington met on Tuesday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to discuss the restoration of diplomatic ties, future Ukraine peace talks, and an upcoming summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Donald Trump.

The Russian team included Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, presidential aide Yury Ushakov, and Russian Direct Investment Fund CEO Kirill Dmitriev. Representing the United States were Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and special envoy Ambassador Steve Witkoff.

Here’s what the sides said following the meeting, which lasted nearly 4.5 hours:

Russia and the US will work to restore diplomatic missions

According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the talks were useful and both delegations worked “quite successfully” on improving relations.

One of the first steps agreed upon during the meeting, he explained, is to once and for all solve the issue of diplomatic missions, given that both countries had exchanged a number of diplomatic expulsions during the Biden administration, resulting in a breakdown of communications between Moscow and Washington.

As part of this, Moscow and Washington have committed to appoint ambassadors to each other’s countries as soon as possible and remove the “artificial barriers” that had been built by the Biden administration to “seriously complicate” the work of Russia’s diplomatic missions and hinder the development of normal relations, Lavrov said.

The deputy heads of the diplomatic departments of the two countries will soon meet to put an end to these issues, among which Lavrov listed the seizure of Russian real estate in the US and the restrictions on bank transfers for the Russian side.

The US has started to listen to Russia

The Russian and American delegations “not only listened, but also heard each other” during the talks, Lavrov said. The US has begun to better understand Russia’s position, which Moscow has repeatedly outlined over the years, he added.

The minister admitted that it does not mean that the national interests of the two countries would no longer be in conflict, but it is important that the two sides are working to establish a dialogue.

Lavrov said that Russia and the US have expressed an interest in resuming consultations on resolving geopolitical issues and removing barriers to economic cooperation, noting that the American side has demonstrated a “determination” to “move forward” in bilateral relations.

Russia’s position on Ukraine and NATO

The Russian side reiterated its position on the Ukraine conflict, primarily the fact that Kiev’s absorption into NATO would represent a direct threat to Moscow, Lavrov said at a press conference after the talks.

He also stressed that the deployment of troops from NATO states to Ukraine, whether under the European Union flag or national flags, would also be unacceptable for Russia.

The Russian side expressed its appreciation to Trump for becoming the first major Western leader to acknowledge that Ukraine’s NATO ambitions had been one of the primary catalysts for the conflict, Lavrov added.

Moscow and Washington have agreed to respect each other’s interests

Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said that the delegations held a “very serious conversation on all issues” that the sides wanted to address. However, he noted that it’s difficult to say whether the positions of the two countries have grown closer.

At the same time, he noted that Russia and the US have agreed to “take each other’s interests into account” while also advancing bilateral relations.

Russia and US will discuss the Ukraine conflict

Ushakov noted that while the US and Russia have outlined their positions on the Ukraine conflict, it will be up to the “teams of negotiators” from both states to make progress on this issue “in due course.”

“The Americans should appoint their representatives, we will appoint ours, and then, probably, the work will get underway,” Ushakov said.

Relations could improve in a matter of months

RDIF chief Kirill Dmitriev said that the delegations had communicated “with respect” and on equal terms, going on to suggest that the two sides could make significant progress in talks in a matter of two or three months.

He admitted it’s too early to talk about any compromises, but the meeting has laid “important grounds” for dialogue. The officials underscored the need for cooperation and economic opportunities that could contribute to both nations.

“We need to pursue joint projects, including, for example, in the Arctic and other areas,” he said.

Putin-Trump summit date still unclear

Following Tuesday’s talks, Ushakov noted that it is still difficult to name a specific date for the high-level summit, stating that it is “unlikely” that it will take place next week as had been previously suggested in the media.

US agrees to normalize relations with Russia

The US State Department announced after the talks that Marco Rubio and his team had agreed with the Russian delegation to create a “consultation mechanism” to address the irritants in bilateral relations and normalize the operations of the two countries’ diplomatic missions.

As part of this, Rubio has announced that Russia and the US had agreed to restore the previous number of diplomatic personnel at their respective embassies in Moscow and Washington following years of tit-for-tat diplomatic cuts.

Moscow and Washington will also need to examine the future geopolitical and economic cooperation that will come after the Ukraine conflict is resolved, Rubio said.

Special team to work on Ukraine solution

Washington also announced that Russia and the US have agreed to appoint high-level teams that would work on finding a path towards resolving the Ukraine conflict as soon as possible and to ensure a sustainable peace that is acceptable to all sides.

State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce stressed that “one phone call followed by one meeting” was not enough to establish an enduring peace. She stated that while Tuesday’s meeting was an “important step forward,” more still needs to be done.

Source: Rt.com

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UK Government relaunches Net Zero Council 

Energy News BeatUK Government

The UK Government has relaunched the Net Zero Council with a plan to help various sectors accelerate towards net zero targets and support thousands of jobs.

The relaunch reflects a new “mission-led approach”, ensuring government actively engages with a broad range of industry leaders and stakeholders to drive the progress towards net zero.

The announcement comes as a meeting focused on agreeing the Council’s priorities for 2025 to 2026, which will include a new focus on providing expert input to inform government strategies relating to net zero.

The Council, co-chaired by Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and Co-operative Group CEO Shirine Khoury-Haq, brings together leaders from some of the UK’s biggest businesses, charities and organisations as well as trade unions and local authorities.

New members include representatives from the Trades Union Congress and Design Council and major industry players such as Siemens, Nestlé and HSBC have returned to the Council alongside new members including the Local Government Association and Aviva Investors.

The Council will provide advice to the government to support net zero strategy development, co-ordinate action to address cross-economy challenges and maximise the economic and societal opportunities offered by the net zero transition.

Its priorities for the coming year also include supporting SMEs to decarbonise while maximising the benefits of the transition as well as informing the government’s approach to public engagement and developing products to support public participation with net zero.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said: “Businesses and leaders across our country recognise that clean power and accelerating towards net zero represents the economic opportunity of the 21st century.

“It is one which will protect bills, create jobs, and tackle the climate crisis. This Council is about mission-driven leadership, bringing government, business and civil society together to turn ambition into action.

“By working in partnership, we can drive the investment, innovation and industrial transformation needed to make the UK a clean energy superpower.”

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EU forges ahead with ‘independent’ Russia sanctions policy amid mixed US signals

Energy News BeatEU

 

EU envoys agreed on a further round of sanctions on Russia on Wednesday amid conflicting signals from the United States about the future of Washington’s own  regime of restrictive measures aimed at Moscow.

The new sanctions package – the EU’s 16th since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – includes import bans on aluminium, export restrictions on chromium and other items used to produce factory equipment, and the removal of multiple Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system.

It also includes additional measures to clamp down on Russia’s circumvention of the G7’s oil price cap, which limits the sale of Russian seaborne oil to $60 per barrel.

The move, which came the day after US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia to discuss an end to the three-year-long Ukraine war, followed a meeting of EU finance ministers on Tuesday in Brussels at which officials reaffirmed their support for the bloc’s current sanctions policy.

One European official familiar with Tuesday’s discussions said that it is “very likely” that the EU’s sanctions policy “could evolve independently” of the US over the coming months, as it remains unclear what course US President Donald Trump might steer after his initial steps toward patching up ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“I did not detect any reduction in commitment to the implementation of our sanctions package,” the official said. “And therefore I don’t see it likely that if the US was to go in a different direction we would follow.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had initially suggested after his meeting with Russian officials on Tuesday that Washington could ease sanctions on Moscow as part of any ceasefire arrangement – and hinted that the EU might be compelled to follow suit.

“Sanctions are all the result of this conflict,” Rubio said, noting that “in order to bring an end to any conflict there has to be concessions made by all sides”.

“But there are other parties that have sanctions,” he added. “The European Union is going to have to be at the table at some point because they have sanctions as well that have been imposed.”

But Bloomberg subsequently reported that Rubio had privately informed several European counterparts that Washington would maintain its raft of sanctions on Moscow until the war is over, citing people familiar with the matter.

A State Department spokesperson also confirmed on Tuesday that Rubio had briefed ministers from France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, “immediately” after the meeting in Riyadh.

“The group agreed to remain in close contact as we work to achieve a durable end to the conflict in Ukraine,” the spokesperson said.

The EU’s sanctions require unanimous support among the EU’s 27 member states and must be renewed every six months.

One EU diplomat noted that Trump’s close relationship with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán – who has repeatedly denounced the EU’s sanctions – could lead to “problems” if Washington pressured Brussels to lift sanctions on Moscow.

“If this scenario would happen [where] Trump asked EU to ease up with the sanctions, I’m pretty sure that there will be at least one head of state who will be willing to do that,” the diplomat said.

Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domański, whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU, also said on Tuesday that Warsaw is sticking with its controversial push to confiscate the €210 billion in frozen Russian assets currently held in the EU.

Such a move has been fiercely resisted by Belgium, where the vast majority of the assets are based. Belgian leaders have argued that seizing the assets is legally dubious and could threaten the financial stability of the eurozone.

Confiscation is, however, staunchly supported by many Eastern European countries and was also strongly endorsed by the previous US administration led by Joe Biden.

The profits generated by these assets are currently being used to finance a $50 billion loan to Kyiv, following an agreement last year by G7 countries.

“Of course, we do believe that these assets should be used to benefit Ukraine and not only the profits, but also the assets [themselves],” Domański said at a Bloomberg-hosted event.

“Having said that, of course, there are countries that express their position which is different,” he added. “So we are in ongoing discussions – it would be premature to say what could be the end for that.”

European Commissioner for Economy Valdis Dombrovksis, who has also repeatedly refused to rule out seizing the assets, also suggested yesterday that the EU’s sanctions policy could evolve independently of the US.

“I think it’s very clear with the moves of the current Trump administration that EU will need to take issues related to its security more [into] its own hands,” he said, adding that this “also concerns sanctions policy”.

The EU has banned €91.2 billion worth of imports from Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as €48 billion in exports, according to the European Commission.

The new sanctions package is set to be formally endorsed by EU foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday.

Source: Euractiv.com

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Japan’s January LNG imports rise

Energy News BeatLNG imports

The country’s LNG imports increased to 6.64 million tonnes last month.

LNG imports dropped slightly compared to 6.74 million tonnes of LNG in December, which was up by 5.7 percent year-on-year.

The world’s second-largest LNG importer took 65.89 million tonnes of LNG last year, down 0.4 percent year-on-year.

Japan’s coal imports for power generation increased in January compared to the last year.

The data shows that coal imports were up by 4.5 percent to 10.4 million tonnes, and Japan paid about $1.6 billion for these imports, a drop of 0.7 percent compared to last year.

The January LNG import bill, which was about $4.39 billion, rose by 7.1 percent compared to the same month last year.

JOGMEC said in a report last week that the average price of spot LNG cargoes for delivery to Japan contracted in January and scheduled to be delivered from the month onward (contract-based price) was $13.8/MMBtu.

Also, the average price of spot LNG cargoes that were delivered in Japan within the month of January regardless of the month when the contracts were made (arrival-based price) was 14.2/MMBtu.

JOGMEC previously said that the arrival-based price was at $14.1/MMBtu in December, while the contract-based was not disclosed.

METI previously announced that Japan’s LNG inventories for power generation stood at 1.87 million tonnes as of January 5, down from 2.24 million tonnes the previous week.

According to METI, inventories stood at 2.11 million tonnes on January 12, 2.31 million tonnes on January 19, 2.15 million tonnes on January 26, 2.42 million tonnes on February 2, 2.15 million tonnes on February 9, and 2.01 million tonnes on February 16.

As per LNG shipments going to Japan in January, deliveries from Asia increased by 26.7 percent to 2.03 million tonnes, the ministry’s data shows.

Middle East LNG shipments decreased by 11.1 percent to 647,000 tonnes in January.

Moreover, shipments from Russia decreased by 12.4 percent to 573,000 tonnes, while US deliveries decreased by 24.5 percent to 454,000 tonnes in January.

Source: Lngprime.com

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Construction underway on major England-Scotland power link

Energy News BeatConstruction

Construction has begun on a subsea electricity superhighway that will transport power for two million homes in the UK.

Electricity will be transported along more than 190 kilometres of predominantly undersea cable linking the south-east of Scotland with the north-east of England.

Eastern Green Link 1, a joint venture by SP Energy Networks and National Grid, is delivering the £2.5 billion project that was approved by Ofgem last year.

Onshore work is underway, with offshore construction starting this summer.

An £8 million fund to support local communities and deliver social, environmental and economic projects where the cable meets land in East Lothian and County Durham has been approved by the regulator.

Energy Minister Michael Shanks said: “Today’s announcement puts us one step closer in achieving our mission to make Britain a clean energy superpower and create a cheaper, more secure energy system.

“This new electric superhighway will help us on our way by transporting more renewable energy under the North Sea to power millions of homes and businesses, while supporting skilled jobs in our industrial heartlands and saving billpayers hundreds of millions of pounds.

“It forms part of our once in a generation upgrade to Britain’s energy infrastructure, using some of the most advanced subsea technology in the world.”

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Tokyo Gas takes stake in Batangas LNG terminal

Energy News BeatTokyo Gas

Tokyo Gas announced on Wendesday that it had subscribed a 20 percent stake in FGEN LNG, marking its first investment in a commercially operational overseas LNG terminal project.

However, the Japanese firm did not provide financial details.

Back in 2020, First Gen, controlled by the Lopez family, signed a joint cooperation deal with Tokyo Gas for the Batangas LNG import terminal in the Philippines, and this deal included Tokyo Gas buying a 20 percent stake in the project.

In May 2024, FGEN LNG and Tokyo Gas executed a shareholders’ agreement and share subscription agreement.

The agreement remained subject to a number of conditions precedent, including securing relevant government approvals.

“Tokyo Gas will leverage its extensive expertise in the optimal operation of LNG terminals, accumulated over many years in Japan, to support the operation and maintenance of the terminal,” Tokyo Gas said on Wednesday.

Last month, First Gen received a 25-year permit to operate and maintain its Batangas LNG import terminal.

Moreover, the FSRU-based LNG terminal received a new cargo of LNG in October last year.

The 162,000-cbm FSRU BW Batangas, owned by BW LNG and chartered by First Gen, received the cargo from the 174,000-cbm GasLog Greece, owned by GasLog and chartered by Shell, from Shell’s QCLNG plant in Australia.

Prior to the arrival of GasLog Greece, First Gen issued a tender in September 2024 seeking to procure a single cargo of LNG via its unit First Gen Singapore on a delivered ex-ship (DES) basis.

The firm awarded the tender to LNG giant Shell, and this was the seventh tender the company issued since 2023.

BW Batangas is berthed at the First Gen Clean Energy Complex (FGCEC) in Batangas City.

First Gen uses regasified LNG to fuel its gas-fired power plants located in the complex.

The company has a portfolio of four gas-fired power plants with a combined capacity of 2,017 MW that have been supplied for many years with gas from the Malampaya offshore gas field.

Source: Lngprime.com

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Sec. Hegseth: DOD Climate Programs Ripe For Cuts, Military Should Focus On War-Fighting

Energy News BeatHegseth

Hegseth eyes DOD climate programs for cuts, arguing the military should focus on warfighting, not solving the global thermostat.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth pinpointed climate change programs as a potential place for the Department of Government Efficiency to cut Department of Defense spending while traveling in Germany this week. [emphasis, links added]

Hegseth ultimately hopes the U.S. will increase its defense budget as he claims the Biden administration “underinvested” in the American military, but things like DOD climate change programs are ripe for cuts, according to the secretary.

“The Defense Department is not in the business of climate change, solving the global thermostat. We’re in the business of deterring and winning wars,” Hegseth told reporters Tuesday. “Things like that, we want to look for and find efficiencies.”

President Joe Biden ramped up efforts across the federal government to combat climate change.

He and his administration repeatedly framed climate change as, among other things, a military priority, considering it a threat to national security.

“The Department continues to respond to climate change in two ways: adaptation to enhance resilience and mitigation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” wrote former Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin In the department’s 2024-2027 Climate Adaptation Plan.

The military’s mitigation goals outlined in the plan include net-zero installations and leveraging technologies that reduce energy use.

Enhancing resilience includes using renewable energy and “installing microgrids to ensure power is available at all times,” Deputy Chief Sustainability Officer Rachel Ross said in 2024.

In 2023, the president’s proposed defense budget included $3.7 billion for “installation resiliency and adaptation” and $1.5 billion for research and development, operational energy, and contingency preparedness.

Read more at Just The News

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Europe’s Top Leaders Meet in Paris to Stay Relevant

Energy News BeatParis

As U.S. and Russian officials begin negotiating an end to the Ukraine war without them.

A group of European leaders convened in Paris for an emergency meeting on Monday, still reeling from a weekend during which their long-standing ability to rely on the United States for support was thrown into question and ahead of a meeting between U.S. and Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia that they were excluded from.

Monday’s emergency meeting, convened by French President Emmanuel Macron, included the leaders of the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Denmark, as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. It came close on the heels of the Munich Security Conference, where U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance gave a speech accusing European countries of straying from “democratic values” over their opposition to far-right political parties and what Vance characterized as excessive censorship.

His remarks—coupled with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s statement earlier that week that Ukraine’s membership in NATO was not a “realistic” outcome of a potential negotiated settlement to end the war and U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateral decision to start direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Ukraine war—left many European leaders feeling shocked and sidelined.

In Munich, senior European officials stuck to the central message they have been putting forward for months, despite Vance’s speech and the acknowledgment that Europe must contribute more to its own defense. “There will be no peace in Ukraine without Ukraine or Europe,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told Foreign Policy on the sidelines of the conference.

But the Trump administration doesn’t seem to be heeding that message. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, met in the Saudi capital of Riyadh on Tuesday, where the two sides agreed to begin talks to achieve peace in Ukraine and more broadly improve U.S.-Russia relations. No Ukrainian or European representatives were included, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky postponed his own visit to Saudi Arabia scheduled for Wednesday.

“There is now a sort of ideological convergence between Moscow and Washington against Europeans,” said Thomas Gomart, director of the Paris-based think tank Institut Français des Relations Internationales, describing the Trump administration’s stance as a “strategic gift, which has been given to Putin for almost nothing at this stage.”

The problem, even for Europe’s most powerful nations, is that they cannot seem to agree on how to proceed.

Macron, who skipped the Munich Security Conference, has tried to play interlocutor, speaking to Trump before and after Monday’s emergency meeting, when he also spoke to Zelensky. “We will work on this together with all Europeans, Americans, and Ukrainians,” he wrote in a post on X. “This is the key.” France is reportedly planning to host a second meeting on Wednesday with other European nations that weren’t included in Monday’s meeting, as well as North American ally Canada.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer wrote in an op-ed in the Telegraph on Sunday that he would be willing to commit British peacekeeping troops to Ukraine if a peace deal is reached. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, on the other hand, told reporters categorically on Monday that Poland will not send troops to Ukraine, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz—facing a snap election next week—said it was “inappropriate” to discuss peacekeeping troops before a peace deal is reached.

“For Europeans, there is this idea that if a cease-fire is really implemented, Ukraine should continue to be supported and maybe Europeans should be able to provide security guarantees,” Gomart said. “Having said that, there is deep division among them regarding the security guarantees, and there is also division in terms of what sort of military risk Europeans are ready to take by themselves.”

Source: Foreignpolicy.com

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