Efficiency in Capacity Markets

Energy News Beat

PJM Capacity Prices Rising Fast

Capacity prices in PJM soared in the recent capacity auction. (See my post  Ten times as expensive at PJM.)  The price rise will be reflected in higher bills for consumers. Consumer bills will not go up by a factor of ten, because capacity prices are only part of the bill. Still, there will probably be double-digit increases in people’s bills.

In the future, capacity prices are set to go even higher.

On July 29, Ethan Howland of Utility Dive looked at the probable outcome of the next capacity auction. “PJM capacity prices could jump 157% in the next auction: Morgan Stanley .“ The price rise in the recent auction started from a low base, going from $29 per MW-day to $270/MW-day.  The future rise will begin at the higher number.

As the Utility Dive article states: “almost every power plant in PJM cleared the last (capacity auction) so there was barely any excess capacity in the market.”  Lack of excess capacity means that a small increase in demand could lead to a large increase in capacity prices and consumer prices.

Looking forward, Morgan Stanley analysts say that if the same plants clear in future auctions, capacity prices could go up to $700 MW-day.  The analysts expect a modest rise (about 2%) in demand.  Demand will rise.  Supply will not increase. In consequence, prices will rise.

Will Efficiency Save PJM?

What about efficiency?  If PJM could stop that modest rise in demand, wouldn’t that solve the problem? Maybe. PJM has tried to give capacity payments to organizations that provide efficiency.  Paying for efficiency is part of a nationwide trend to encourage lower demand: virtual power plants, demand response, efficiency payments. These all provide payments for actions that could mean that less generation would be needed on the grid.

Okay. It’s time to dig a little deeper. We can start with the fact that the PJM efficiency payments may be illegal.

Bye-bye Efficiency

In July of this year, the Independent Market Monitor for PJM asked PJM to stop paying energy efficiency resources and recoup past payments. According to the Market Monitor, as reported in Utility Dive, PJM has been paying ineligible energy efficiency resources the capacity auction clearing price since 2016. Earlier in the year, group of state consumer advocates and U.S. Senators made a similar complaint about the payments.

How much money are we talking about? According to the article, PJM made capacity payments of about $120 million  to energy efficiency resources for 2024-25. As a percentage of the total capacity ($14 billion) that cleared in the last auction, this is pretty small potatoes. Still, $120 million staying in consumers’ pockets is $120 million in consumers’ pockets.

PJMs “addback” mechanism is a major part of the problem. PJM removed energy efficiency from its evaluation of available supply (capacity). But it continued to pay energy efficiency as sort-of capacity through its addback. PJM claims the addback avoids double-counting resources. The Market Monitor disagrees.

Here’s a quote from the Market Monitor’s July FERC filing.

When EE (Energy Efficiency) was added to the forecast and EE was removed from the capacity market, PJM should have simply followed the tariff, recognized that EE was not capacity, recognized EE resources do not meet the definition of EE Resources in the filed tariff, and eliminated payment to EE resources.

Instead, PJM recognized that EE resources are not capacity, stopped including EE resources in the capacity auction, and began to pay EE resources an uplift payment equal to the capacity market clearing price.…The rationale for continuing to pay EE resources as if they were a capacity resources was and is unclear. PJM never stated that rationale clearly. …..

The complete removal of EE resources from the capacity market mechanism would make it unnecessary to address the multiple outstanding issues related to the task of accurately measuring the impact of EE, determining the ownership of any imputed savings, ensuring that the same EE are not submitted by multiple participants….

Let’s move away from the Independent Market Monitor’s FERC filing and look instead at the PJM committees. On August 21, the PJM Markets and Reliability Committee voted to eliminate efficiency providers from the capacity market. The discussion and vote were carefully reported in the August 26 issue of Utility Dive. PJM Stakeholders Endorse Elimination of EE from Participation in Capacity Market.

It looks like nobody is happy with how PJM pays for efficiency.

Is Efficiency Holy?

It may come as a shock that anyone could vote against efficiency.  What could be better than investing in efficiency?

But that is the issue.  You need to invest in efficiency, and that means you need to

·      define efficiency,

·      monitor efficiency, and

·      compare it with other investments.

There can be problems with each of these steps.  I plan to give examples in a new post.

Source: Meredithangwin.substack.com

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Are Americans ready for Kamala Harris’s California cost-hiking, business-killing policies?

Energy News Beat

For years, California has received extensive press coverage for its high cost of living and the most expensive electricity and fuel prices in America.

California’s increasingly high cost of living, housing, and transportation, coupled with an increase in crime, smash-and-grab robberies, homelessness, pollution, and congestion, has caused many people and companies to relocate to more affordable cities and states.

The California Policy Institute counted more than 237 businesses that have left the state since 2005. Among these businesses were eleven Fortune 1000 companies, inclusive of AT&T, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron. California’s net move-out number of residents in 2022 alone was more than 343,000 people that left California — the highest exodus of any state in the U.S.

Kamala Harris has a long relationship with California. She became the San Francisco district attorney in 2004. She served two terms in that role from 2004 to 2010. In 2010, she succeeded Jerry Brown as California Attorney General. She was sworn into the role in January 2011 and served until 2017, when she joined the U.S. Senate after being elected in 2016.

Kamala Harris continues to support California’s tax-and-spend, overreaching, and economy-crushing policies and their threats to America’s energy, agricultural, economic, employment, living standards, and national security future.

California’s de-carceration, de-prosecution, and de-policing have led to a toxic mix that has eroded public safety in the Golden State.

The growing number of smash-and-grab robberies on small businesses has another major associated cost: turning off the desire of shoppers to return to those stores that have been attacked and receiving press coverage that gets disseminated to others, giving the impression that the safety of the area is deteriorating.

The deterioration of the California lifestyle has led to the “California exodus,” the ongoing migration of residents and businesses from California to other states or countries.

ELECTRICITY

Electricity from solar and wind is specified by the state government and supported by Harris as critical to meeting California’s ambitious requirement to switch to 90% carbon-free electricity generation by  2035 and to 100% by 2045. Shockingly, the “green” wind and solar projects primarily exist because they are financed with taxpayer money, i.e., disguised from taxpayers as “Government subsidies.”

The “green” electricity policy has resulted in the state continuously shutting down coal, natural gas, and nuclear-generating stations that provide continuous uninterruptible electricity in favor of occasionally generated electricity from renewables.

However, in spite of the policy and renewable stations built at the expense of taxpayer dollars, otherwise known as Government Subsidies, California now imports more electric power than any other US state, more than twice the amount in Virginia, the USA’s second-largest importer of electric power. California typically receives between one-fifth and one-third of its electricity supply from outside of the state.

Power prices are rocketing into the stratosphere and, even before winter drives up demand, are being deprived of electricity in a way that was unthinkable barely a decade ago. But such is life when you attempt to run on sunshine and breezes. Further, these so-called “green” electricity sources of wind and solar are not clean, green, renewable or sustainable. They also endanger wildlife.

She is incapable of having conversations about how occasionally generated electricity from wind and solar will be able to address the coming increase in electricity demand. The U.S. Department of Energy recently made a startling admission about the U.S. electricity demand that is going to double by 2050, and meeting that soaring demand is going to require the equivalent of building 300 Hoover Dams.

Kamala remains ignorant to the reality that it’s becoming increasingly obvious that these supposed “green” alternative methods of generating electricity won’t work — especially as electricity demands are projected to double by 2050 due to AI, charging of EVs, data centers, government-mandated electric heating and cooking, and charging grid-backup batteries.

In addition, those so-called renewables, such as wind and solar, cannot produce thousands of essential products that require petrochemical feedstocks. In fact, all the parts and components of wind and solar are made from the same fossil fuels that Kamala Harris wants to rid the state of.

FOSSIL FUELS

As one of the most vocal “GREEN” policymakers, she remains oblivious to humanity’s addiction to the products and fuels from fossil fuels, as she is to these two basic facts:

She cannot comprehend that no one uses crude oil in its raw form. “Big Oil” only exists because of humanity’s addiction to the products and fuels made from oil! “Renewables” only exist to generate occasional electricity, as they CANNOT make any products or fuels!

If Kamala wants to rid the world of crude oil usage, there is no need to support California’s overregulation or overtaxing of the oil industry; she just needs to promote California residents to STOP using products and fuels made from crude oil, which would send California residents back to the Stone Age!

California’s regulatory and tax landscape has led to a steady drop in the number of California refineries. In the early 1980s, when California’s population was 24 million, there were 40 operating refineries in the state, which refined over 2.5 million barrels of crude oil per day. Forty years later, with a population of 39 million, the number of refineries dropped by 14, which refines less than 2 million barrels of crude oil per day currently. The reality is that gasoline and diesel supply is decreasing while demand is increasing; it is fuel (pun intended) for continuous price increases.

Refineries are also shutting down because California has imposed a new regulation that bans the sale of gas-powered cars and light trucks by 2035, and the State requires 35 percent of new car sales to be zero-emission vehicles by 2026. It makes no economic sense to invest in a new capacity in a state that has de facto outlawed the industry’s existence in a few years.

In addition, refineries are also shutting down because there are incredibly lucrative state and federal tax incentives to produce biofuels, totaling a whopping $1 per gallon, and cease the manufacturing of gasoline and diesel. A Marathon refinery that had a crude oil refining capacity of 166,000 barrels per day is being retrofitted to produce biodiesel and is expected to be producing biofuel next year. Similarly, Global Clean Energy is converting a 66,000-barrel-per-day-capacity refinery in Bakersfield to biodiesel, and World Energy has invested $350 million to convert a 50,000-barrel-per-day-capacity refinery to biodiesel.

California regulators and legislators are getting what they want: less crude oil produced and consumed. Californians, particularly low and middle-income households, are paying a dear price for the preferences of Tesla-driving legislators and regulators as fuel demand remains against a diminishing supply of gasoline and diesel.

She cannot comprehend that STOPPING the demands of society for the products and fuels made from oil will eliminate the need for crude oil!

Simplistically: STOP making cars, trucks, aircraft, boats, ships, farming equipment, medical equipment and supplies, communications equipment, military equipment, etc., that demand crude oil for their supply chain of products.

Harris is campaigning to rid America of oil and totally supports California Governor Newsom by continually decreasing California’s in-state oil production. Harris continues to support Newsom’s energy policies to force California, the 4th largest economy in the world, to be the only state in contiguous America that imports most of its crude oil energy from foreign countries. That dependence, via maritime transportation from foreign nations for the state’s crude oil energy demands, has increased imported crude oil from 5 percent in 1992 to almost 60 percent today of total consumption.

California’s growing dependency on other nations for crude oil is a serious national security risk for America since the State is home to 9 International airports, 41 Military airports, and 3 of the largest shipping ports in America. California’s growing dependency on other nations, like Saudi Aramco, is a serious national security risk for America.

Now, with the presidential election around the corner, are the 300 million Americans not living in the West ready to duplicate California’s expensive electricity and fuel prices and increasingly high costs of living, housing, and transportation coupled with an increase in crime, smash-and-grab robberies, and homelessness?

Source: Americaoutloud.news

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The World’s 3 Biggest Oil Exporters Saw Shipments Slump in August

Energy News Beat
The combined crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States fell by nearly 700,000 barrels per day in August.
The decline was primarily driven by a drop in U.S. exports, followed by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Tightening U.S. crude supplies and rising domestic demand in Saudi Arabia contributed to the lower exports.

The world’s ‘Big 3’ crude oil exporters – Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States – saw their combined shipments slump by nearly 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August from July to a multi-year low share of global seaborne crude exports, an analysis by oil flow tracking firm Vortexa showed on Wednesday.

Total crude exports from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. fell to 12.7 million bpd last month, down by nearly 700,000 bpd month-on-month.

Despite the major drop in ‘Big-3’ exports, global exports fell by just 260,000 bpd in August from July, as other exporters raised shipments, Jay Maroo, Head of Market Intelligence & Analysis (MENA) at Vortexa, wrote in the insight.

The U.S. saw the steepest plunge in exports among the Big 3, with shipments falling by about 540,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude oil exporter, saw its exports drop by 110,000 bpd and Russia’s shipments fell by 40,000 bpd in August compared to July.

U.S. exports declined to their lowest monthly total since January 2023, Vortexa’s data showed. Shipments of 3.7 million bpd in August saw an especially slow start to the month.

“Tighter US crude supplies, as seen via sharp draws in Cushing inventories, have come partly as a result of struggling US production growth,” Vortexa’s Maroo noted.

August, however, was likely the bottom for U.S. crude exports as flows to Europe have been ramping up, according to Vortexa.

The lower Saudi crude exports weren’t surprising for the month of August, considering the higher demand for oil burn for power generation in the Kingdom, Vortexa’s analysis showed.

In the coming weeks, Saudi exports may pick up, as domestic power generation needs are expected to wane, potentially freeing up supply for exports.

Russia’s exports fell slightly in August, but they could further drop if China’s oil demand continues to deteriorate. Moscow – unlike Riyadh – doesn’t have willing buyers of its crude lining up to snap up Russian crude, Vortexa notes.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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OPEC+ Close to Delaying Oil Supply Increase, Delegates Say

Energy News Beat
Group had scheduled October production boost of 180,000 b/d
Rethink comes after downbeat economic data from China, US

OPEC+ is close to agreement on delaying a planned increase in oil production after prices plunged amid fragile demand and plentiful supplies.

Key coalition members likely won’t go ahead with the scheduled hike of 180,000 barrels a day in October, according to delegates who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. The rethink came after crude prices slumped below $73 a barrel earlier this week, reaching the lowest since late 2023, following downbeat economic data from China and the US, the biggest consumers.

Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC+ agreed in June on a road map for gradually restoring supplies halted since 2022. But it vacillated as soon as the plan was unveiled, repeatedly stressing the increases could be “paused or reversed” if necessary. A major output disruption in Libya seemed to offer the group space to go ahead, but members are now leaning toward caution.

Postponing the rise might avert the surplus that prominent market-watchers such as the International Energy Agency and trading giant Trafigura Group were expecting in the fourth quarter. Conversely, opening the taps could initiate a slump toward $50 a barrel, Citigroup Inc. warned.

“OPEC+ is facing a binary choice between delaying tapering and enduring a disorderly crude price rout,” said Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official. “It appears to be leaning toward the former, as it has always cautioned it would in this case.”

While a price retreat may offer consumers some relief after years of rampant inflation, current levels are too low for the Saudis and others in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cover their government spending.

At the start of this week, OPEC+ delegates were signaling that the scheduled boost remained on track.

Output in member Libya was slashed in half last week after authorities in the eastern region shuttered more than 500,000 barrels a day in a clash with the Tripoli-based government over control of the central bank.

The disruption came on top of the halt of Libya’s biggest oil field, Sharara, earlier in August.

But on Tuesday, Sadiq Al-Kabir — the central bank governor whose attempted ouster precipitated the crisis — said there were “strong” indications political factions are nearing an agreement to overcome the current deadlock.

Brent futures plunged 5% and OPEC+ officials shifted position, saying that discussions on delaying the group’s supply hike were in progress.

While global crude markets are currently tight amid summer driving demand, they’re set to ease significantly once the seasonal peak in consumption passes.

Data from China has shown critical engines of economic growth sputtering, with factory activity contracting for a fourth month and the value of new-home sales declining. US manufacturing activity showed a fifth consecutive month of contraction.

The OPEC+ road map outlines the gradual return of 2.2 million barrels a day through to late 2025. The group will soon need to decide whether to proceed with the next monthly supply tranche, set for November. An online meeting of its review body, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, is scheduled for Oct. 2.

— With assistance from Nayla Razzouk and Ben Bartenstein

(Updates throughout.)

Source: Bloomberg

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Invasion Of The Water Snatchers

Energy News Beat

Drought has hit Schleicher County hard. Lots of the stock tanks are dry. The only plants that appear to be thriving on this part of the Edwards Plateau are scrawny mesquite trees and the ever-present prickly pear cactus. As we turned onto County Road 339, the clouds of dust from the unpaved road were so thick that I slowed down to assure there was at least 100 yards between my vehicle and the tailgate of Ray and Sandra Pfeuffer’s pickup. It was the afternoon of August 15. The dashboard in our 4Runner showed the outside temperature was 103 F. The sun was relentless. There was almost no wind. A bare handful of clouds dotted the sky.

The Pfeuffers, who raise goats and cattle on a 3,300-acre ranch about a dozen miles southeast of Christoval, led us to a remote spot in a remote county: the Carmelite Monastery of Our Lady of Grace.

Sandra wanted me to meet the nuns at the monastery because, like the Pfeuffers and many others in Schleicher County, they were dead set against a “green” hydrogen project called Tierra Alta, that has been proposed for their neighborhood by ET Fuels, an Irish corporation that’s backed by private equity firms based in Zurich and Paris. At the monastery, we were warmly greeted by Sister Mary Grace and Sister Mary Michael. Both were quick to explain why they are opposing the project. Not only would it include dozens of wind turbines that would be visible from the monastery, it would also require lots of water. Sister Mary Grace spoke first. She told me, “We are all about prayer. We are all about justice. And we are all about people.”  She went on to say the project would completely change the region’s character.

Sister Mary Michael, who relied on a wheelchair, spoke softly but cut right to the chase: “We’re in a drought, and they want to take more water,” she said. “It’s a ridiculous amount of water.”

“Ridiculous” is the right word. But the water needs of the proposed “green” hydrogen-to-methanol projects are only one absurdity in a corral-full of absurdities propelled by the outrageous amount of federal money available to corporate subsidy miners under the Inflation Reduction Act. (That legislation, you may recall, became law by a single vote, cast by Kamala Harris.) And those subsidy miners are eagerly aiming to feed at the trough. However, to collect the maximum amount of federal money under the IRA for “green” hydrogen, they will have to pave dozens, or even hundreds, of square miles of ranchland from San Angelo to Fort Stockton with wind turbines and solar panels.

As I explained here on Substack last month, the subsidies for “green” hydrogen are 1,900 times larger than what’s given to nuclear. In that piece, I quoted the late Charlie Munger, who famously said, “Show me the incentives, and I’ll show you the outcome.” I wrote, “Under rules published earlier this year by the Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service, hydrogen producers can collect $3 per kilogram of hydrogen under the production tax credit if they use electricity from low- or no-carbon sources.” As I noted, the energy content of hydrogen is about 120 megajoules (MJ) per kilogram. When converted into Btu, that works out to a subsidy of roughly $25 per million Btu. As seen above, that means that the subsidy for green hydrogen is 11 times the current market price for natural gas.

In addition, the companies that produce “green” hydrogen may — repeat, may — also be able to collect tax credits for the energy they produce from the sun and the wind. The result, as seen in the slide above, is that for a project costing $800 million, which is the estimated cost of ET Fuels’ Tierra Alta project, the developer could collect more than half of that sum courtesy of federal taxpayers. Note that I’m hedging my statement here because the rules on the tax credits are hazy. That said, it’s clear that the 45V tax credit alone for green hydrogen could provide more than a third of the project’s cost in the first year alone.

That gobsmacking level of subsidy explains why ET Fuels, NextEra Energy, and Apex Clean Energy, are trying to develop massive “green” hydrogen projects on the Edwards Plateau. ET Fuels plans to cover 30,000 acres of ranchland in Schleicher County with 300 megawatts of wind energy capacity, 300 megawatts of solar capacity, and an unspecified amount of battery storage. That capacity will fuel a bank of electrolyzers to produce enough hydrogen for a 100,000-ton-per-year “green” methanol plant. Meanwhile, NextEra and Apex are planning projects that could dwarf what ET Fuels is proposing.

Ray, Sandra, and Jake Pfeuffer on the Pfeuffer Ranch on August 15, 2024. About the drought, Ray said, “We’ve been dry three, going on four, years now.”

When I asked the Pfeuffers why they and other leaders of The Edwards Plateau Alliance are fighting so hard to stop the hydrogen projects, they replied. “water, water, water.” Ray said, “We wouldn’t have cared if they’d built wind turbines and solar. They could’ve done whatever they wanted.” But after learning about how much water the companies wanted, Sandra said it became clear the projects “just don’t make sense.”

The ET Fuels project alone could require some 485 acre-feet of water per year or roughly 433,000 gallons per day. For perspective, that volume of water would be enough to fill more than four Olympic-size swimming pools every week. “Our aquifer can’t sustain” that much demand Ray explained. When local ranchers irrigate with center-pivot sprinkler systems, they only run their irrigation pumps for a day or two. And even that demand draws down local water wells by 15 or 20 feet until the pumping stops. The hydrogen projects will put continuous demands on the aquifer, which would be ruinous for the region’s ranchers. But that hasn’t stopped the subsidy miners.

Schleicher County, shown in red. Sign on County Road 339.

Apex Clean Energy, a subsidiary of Ares Management Corporation, a publicly traded firm based in Los Angeles that sports a market cap of $45 billion, also has big plans. In 2022, it announced it was pursuing a “green fuels hub” at the Port of Corpus Christi that would get its fuel from a massive complex of wind and solar capacity in the region near Fort Stockton. The project, known as Big Trail reportedly aims to lease 280,000 acres of land and install some 3,200 megawatts of alt-energy capacity. A map a local resident showed me indicates the company is targeting more than 700 square miles of land in Pecos County for solar and wind development. Apex, which often uses for-profit front groups to attack its opponents, has been very aggressive in its efforts to build alt-energy projects across the country. It declined to answer a list of questions that I submitted.

Florida-based NextEra Energy, the world’s biggest alt-energy producer, is planning to lease massive amounts of land in the region. The company, which has a market cap of $165 billion, is pushing a project dubbed Achilles. According to the Pfeuffers, two landmen working for NextEra told them the company aims to lease three million acres(!) of land in west Texas for alt-energy projects. Part of the land would be used for hydrogen production and the rest would be used to produce electricity for the Texas grid. The company did not respond to my emails seeking details about their project.

Sign near Eldorado. The Texas Landowners Coalition opposes wind projects in the region.

While these companies are leasing land in the region for hydrogen projects, it’s also clear that they face many hurdles. Local opposition, particularly in Schleicher County, is fierce. (For the record, I would not want to tangle with the nuns or Sandra Pfeuffer.) Local aquifers may be unable to produce the vast amounts of water the projects will need. According to the Pfeuffers, who attended a local water board meeting last Thursday, test wells recently drilled by ET Fuels were not overly productive.

There is plenty of market risk. Last month, Bloomberg ran a piece headlined, “Why almost nobody is buying green hydrogen.” It explained that while some 1,600 projects are on the drawing boards, “the vast majority of those projects don’t have a single customer stepping up to buy the fuel. Among the handful with some kind of fuel purchase agreement, most have vague, nonbinding arrangements that can be quietly discarded if the potential buyers back out. As a result, many of the projects…will likely never get built.” In addition, the projects are a long distance from potential markets. Apex may want to ship its fuel to maritime customers. But Fort Stockton is 456 miles from the beaches at Corpus Christi.

Finally, it’s evident that hydrogen production is, as I explained in May, “a thermodynamic obscenity.” I wrote:

Hydrogen is insanely expensive, in energy terms, to manufacture. It takes about three units of energy, in the form of electricity, to produce two units of hydrogen energy. In other words, the hydrogen economy requires scads of electricity (a high quality form of energy) to make a tiny molecule that’s hard to handle, difficult to store, and expensive to use.

The thermodynamic obscenity of making hydrogen, combined with the need to mix it with carbon dioxide (produced from somewhere else) to manufacture methanol, means that companies will encounter friction throughout the production process. As I explained to about 200 local ranchers and citizens at a free lecture I gave in Eldorado on August 15 at the Schleicher County Civic Center, the final energy output of ET Fuels’ proposed Tierra Alta project (100,000 tons of methanol per year) will be relatively small, only about 985 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

In the big picture, particularly in Texas — which produces more oil and gas than all but two or three countries — that’s a minuscule amount of energy. As seen above, the latest data from the Energy Information Administration shows that new oil wells in the Permian Basin, which is located about 150 northwest of Eldorado, are now producing about 1,300 barrels per day. And remember, that output doesn’t include the energy in the associated gas coming out of that well. And remember, the ET Fuels project will require covering some 47 square miles of ranch land with alt-energy stuff, and all of that alt-energy stuff will require using untold tons of steel, copper, concrete, wire, and untold tons of gravel for untold miles of new roads. And remember, in the Permian, a dozen or more wells are often drilled on a single multi-acre pad. Thus, while the surface footprint of the oil and gas industry is getting drastically smaller, the alt-energy sector is hoping to cover hundreds, or even thousands, of square miles of rural America with wind turbines and solar panels in its never-ending quest for ever-larger government handouts.

The punchline here is obvious: everything about the “green” hydrogen push is ridiculous. But billions in federal tax dollars are at stake. That much cash can purchase a heap of ridiculousness.

Source: Robertbryce.substack.com

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Yellen needs $3 Trillion for Climate Transition

Energy News Beat

Daily Standup Top Stories

Amazon claims to power all its operations with renewable energy. If only that were true.

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OPEC: Oil Is Indispensable for Global Electrification

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CapMetro stops shift to all-electric bus fleet

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Yellen says $3 trillion is needed each year to fund climate transition

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Taiwan Shuts Second-to-Last Nuclear Plant in Controversial Shift

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Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

01:25 – Amazon claims to power all its operations with renewable energy. If only that were true.

03:56 – CapMetro stops shift to all-electric bus fleet

06:54 – Yellen says $3 trillion is needed each year to fund climate transition

10:10 – Taiwan Shuts Second-to-Last Nuclear Plant in Controversial Shift

11:41 – Weak Demand in China Weighs on Middle East Oil Price Outlook

13:27 – Outro

 

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Stuart Turley: [00:00:15] Hello, everybody. Welcome. The energy news beat daily stand up. My name Stu Turley. Presidency of the sandstone Group. And it is a wild week out there. Today is July 31st. And hold on. Michael’s got the evening off, so let’s take a look at the stories for tonight. Amazon claims to power all of its operations with renewable energy only. If that were true OPEC oil is indispensable for global electrification. Cap metro stops shift to all electric bus fleet. This is in Texas. You got to love it in Austin. Yellen says $3 trillion is needed each year to fund climate transition. This is an important story for a couple hidden reasons. Hang on and I’ll tell you about it. Taiwan shuts second to last nuclear plant in controversial shift. This is just plain dumb. We demand in China ways on Middle Eastern oil price outlook. What’s going to happen with oil. Let’s find out here in a second. [00:01:24][69.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:25] So let’s get started here with Amazon. Amazon claims to power all of its operations with renewable energy. If only that were true. I’ll tell you. Amazon announced that it achieved 100% renewable energy on seven years ahead of schedule. That sounded really good for Virginia. Amazon owns more data centers there than anyone else, and data Center Energy is driving Dominion Energy. Virginia is planned to renege on its climate commitments to keep some of its coal plants online and build expensive new gas plants and transmission lines. So let’s start with the good news. The claim that it had purchased enough renewable energy to match its energy use is likely true. So they bought it from somewhere else, and then they’re still using coal and dirty other forms of energy, but they’re claiming that they’re doing it. And so the consumers that are paying for it in their areas are losing the tax benefits as well as other things. So there’s a lot to this story that’s in here. Amazon keeps its energy demand in Virginia as secret, but it’s pretty sure it’s 110 data centers. Your use more than that. 2019 Greenpeace Peace report estimated that Amazon’s Virginia data center demand at 1700MW in operation or under construction, an amount that would call for 6800MW of solar. Amazon rejected Greenpeace’s estimate. So, hey, I don’t trust people’s numbers anymore. I don’t trust that they’re they’re highlighting out and saying, oh, by the way, we have achieved this. If you say you’re going do something like this, then do it. If Virginia, the bottom line in this article is very important. If Virginia is serious about meeting the climate change, we can’t blindly accept rosy claims from corporations whose central goal is not sustainability, but growth data centers whose energy demand isn’t met on a 24 by seven from zero carbon sources located in the same grid, are not part of the climate solution, they’re part of the problem. Well said. This is from Virginia mercury.com link is in the show notes. So that one just really kind of got me worked up a little bit. Well done. [00:03:55][150.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:56] Great article OPEC oil is indispensable for global electrification. Here’s a quote right out of this story. OPEC does not believe that energy sources are locked in a zero sum game, nor can the history of energy be reduced to a succession of energy replacement events, our guys wrote in an article posted on OPEC’s website on Monday. Quote, reality tells us that oil does not operate in isolation. Cut off from other sectors and industries rather than such is the versatility of petroleum and petroleum derived products. They play an indispensable role in a host of other sectors and industries. You couldn’t have a wind farm without thousands and thousands and thousands of gallons of fuel. Of all the other kind of byproducts that come from oil and gas. So this, again, is another fantastic article due, to put it simply, calls to halt new investment in oil and gas projects jeopardizes the production of oil products essential for the smooth functioning and expansion of the electric electricity grid, OPEC secretary general wrote. He is dead on right. It’s a dangerous come to outlook when you say,. [00:05:17][80.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:17] Hey, let’s just get rid of oil today and not have a replacement for it. Technology’s not there yet. Tap Metro in Austin, Texas stops to shift all electric bus fleet. And this one. The Austin voters were promised a transit system with exclusively electric vehicles when they authorized a tax increase in 2020 to fund the project connect, the largest transit expansion in the city’s history. They were quieter. Honestly, we thought and hope this is from CEO Dottie Watkins, cap metro CEO. Honestly, we thought and hoped that technology would progress faster than us. The biggest downside of a battery electric bus today is its range. Diesel busses can run from early in the morning until past midnight. A battery bus only runs about 8 to 10 hours before it needs to be recharged, creating tough logistical, logistical hurdles and scheduling routes. You can’t be an industrial kind of system where you’ve got to go park the equipment without having 4 or 5 times the amount of equipment in order to do that. And then when you take a look at the average miles between mechanical failures, Miss Reducer, if you could bring this chart up, it’s pretty impressive. Electric cab mechanical failures. It did show that the electric busses were less likely to break down average miles, but they’re not able to do as many miles. So you have to kind of take a look at that in a little bit of a grain of salt. [00:06:53][96.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:54] So Yellen says 3 trillion is needed each year to fund climate transition. Listen to these words very carefully. Yellen says $3 trillion is needed each year to fund climate transition. What we are witnessing today is the elimination of climate crisis. In the energy transition. The energy transition is over. The energy transition is not going to happen thanks to AI. You heard that with AI with a story a little bit ago. AI is such a power hog, it is driving net zero away. And now Secretary Yellen is saying that the U.S. has to come out. Now it is saying that it has to come from investments in the business and in the government, but it affects the consumer. And it is a going to be in effect of impacting inflation and higher rates for everyone. What you’re going to see is gigantic increases in energy. What happens when that is deindustrialization and your life style changes? This article is incredibly important. Neglecting to address climate change and the loss of nature and biodiversity is not just bad environmental policy, it’s bad economic policy, Yellen said. But yet they’re willing to try to put wind farms in the Gulf of Mexico that will kill millions and millions of migratory birds, and then they’re willing to kill whales off of the coast. In the right, whales are going to be endangered. And they licensed more whales to be killed. And than we actually having right whales. So this hypocrisy is actually disgusting. Wealthy economies around the world provided a record setting $116 Billion in Climate finance for developing countries in 2022. This is a little bit of a misnomer, about 40% of it which came from multilateral development banks in D-Bus, Yellen said. The banks, which include the world Bank, which charges higher interest rates for profit, to go to renewable energy that is more expensive for the consumers than the projects actually put into place into the developing nations. So this goes to the ultimate point climate change is a scam. This is now a gigantic money grab. And this is critical. Yellen says 3 trillion is needed each year to fund the climate transition. I have not heard this before. And this frightens me that they’re now just calling it a climate transition. Buckle up. [00:10:10][195.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:10] Taiwan shed second to last nuclear plant in. Controversial shift. This one is really stupid and really frightening from this. This. It’s unbelievable. This power plant currently accounts for 5% of Taiwan’s energy use. Taiwan actually is in trouble. The China is sitting there going. We have a weak United States. If you’re going to invade, now’s the time. And you’re sitting there going. Now we’re going to look at our most stable nuclear fleet, and we’re going to cut it down so that you’re down. And, I mean, I just cannot believe that somebody is countering the narrative on nuclear, and it just does not make sense. This is Taiwan’s last reactor reactor. Mission number two is set to close in May of 2025. Both it and the reactor closing this weekend are planned for retirements after 40 years of use. They could get another 20 years out of these things very, very easily. If nuclear energy technologies can address the issues of nuclear safety and nuclear waste and accept it internationally, of course we’ll be very open to discussing the matter. Premier. I apologize if I butcher your name. Premier Chao Zhang Thai told reporters. I’m sorry. This almost is a play in political play into China’s hand. This does not seem very good for the Taiwanese people. [00:11:41][91.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:41] Let’s go to a weak demand in China. Ways on Middle Eastern oil price outlook. Here’s something that I want to give everybody shout out. And I will have his Twitter account in this article here. Give him a shout out. He is somebody you have to follow. And he is basically said there’s 2 million barrels per day that OPEC does not have in their numbers. So China’s maritime imports dropped 10 million barrels at the start of the summer. The trend of weaker demand, sluggish physical activity in China impacted Middle East oil pricing. But I still think when countries go to war, they are going to be buying everything they can in order to have their storage. I have to go look at their storage. And so when you take a look at this article, it has some great charts in here. Kuwait export blend officials selling prices in Asia compared to Arab medium doesn’t share the concerns or qualms about Saudi Arabia. After the main reason why the country exports have been slowing down. Not only is the 615,000 barrels per day refinery on all cylinders, they’re saying that Oman, the Kuwait State Oil Company, also has reached full capacity. So there’s OPEC’s got their hands full trying to herd these cats. And I truly believe that they don’t know how much is actually going out because of the dirt fleet. And I had talked to Josh young with bison interest and David Blackmon about pricing matrices and things. So when we take a look also at Iran, Iran is still has got some things rolling around in there as well Tim. [00:13:27][105.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:27] So with that please check out the Energy News Beat substack.com. Check out us. Check us out on Energy News beat not go and follow. Like subscribe share. If you are in an oil and gas trading. If you need LNG, if you need jet fuel, if you need any of that, go to energy newsbeat.com/trading desk and I will hook you up with the right folks with the right products that you need. Thanks and have an absolutely wonderful day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow. [00:13:27][0.0][789.6]

The post Yellen needs $3 Trillion for Climate Transition appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

While the west watches a game show, the rest build a new world order

Energy News Beat

Some very big and important things are happening in the world, and it seems that we’re not paying attention at all. We are becoming so fixated on the simple, the sensational, that we’re not noticing the storm clouds.

Now, to be clear, the ballistic winging of a high-level American politician is most deserving of our attention, particularly when the circumstances and outcome are frankly not just nearly apocalyptic but bizarre. The circumstances are so strange and run counter to our expectations that have been baked in from viewing a thousand shows of that very theme (Half the audience watched the shooter wandering around, ratting him out to the cops, who did nothing? Secret Service left the roof unguarded because it’s nearly flat structure was too dangerous for SWAT teams? Huh? And on and on.).

We are no longer in the age of the Zapruder Film, where a singular grainy video captured all we know about the Kennedy assassination. Trump’s shooting was so well documented from every angle that we have acoustic engineers taking to social media with impressively detailed analyses of where shots came from, and equally impressive counter arguments based on some other esoteric analysis of another aspect. Thus, we analyze all.

Sunlight is indeed the best disinfectant, so all these viewpoints are of value and will hinder any miscreants from hiding anything. And yet I can’t help but marvel at the tectonic shifts happening in the world, almost unnoticed in the west, or ignored in the west, that are rearranging the global geopolitical landscape in significant ways, for decades to come, and it’s like we’re not even paying attention. 

The biggest, quietest movement must the the rise of BRICS, the affiliation of nine countries that have formed an alliance to ‘counter western influence’ and work to chart a new direction. The founding countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – were joined by new members at the beginning of the year, including Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia (who has been coy about explicitly affirming membership but is considered member last I checked). These countries are not a chain of unpopulated tropical islands; they have a combined population of about 3.5 billion people and annual GDP of over $28 trillion. 

The BRICS group is growing quickly; earlier this year, it was reported that an additional 34 countries have expressed an interest in joining, with many applications from Africa, South America and Asia. It would not be hard to envision Russian satellite countries looking that way as well.

What makes the rise of this group so significant is that the west has charged down an economic/socioeconomic path that is reliant on at least some BRICS members/applicants (Saudi Arabia, various African countries with critical minerals, and above all China who controls the world’s metals processing capability to an alarming degree). The west is envisioning an energy transition in the next few decades that will be, to put it mildly, heavily dependent on this group’s output and capabilities.

There are two big problems arising here. One is exemplified by Europe, which is successfully reducing emissions in large part by de-industrializing and offshoring anything dirty to the developing world (then getting upset about their emissions). 

The other is the fact that the west gets apoplectic at the sight of this group frolicking in the sun without putting the west’s wishes first. For example, the west has heavily (and imo justifiably) sanctioned Russia over the attack on Ukraine, in an attempt to cripple Russia’s economy. Sanctions include a price cap on Russian oil, a tactic that was roundly mocked as having no hope of being effective by seasoned oil market analysts, but nevertheless, a sanction meant to show that the world was serious and united. 

But then a few weeks ago, India’s Prime Minister Modi paid a visit to the demon himself, Vladimir Putin, on Russian soil, and was greeted with a big hug (the hug was reciprocated; the humiliation for Putin otherwise would have been unbearable). “Why is Modi sucking up to Putin? It’s simple and cynical: China and Oil” snorted the UK’s Guardian through socialist and imperialist nostrils. The Guardian article is snide, provincial, and reeks of the arrogance of the once-relevant that won’t recognize the ‘once-‘ : “Modi knows well how to opportunistically turn someone else’s war to his advantage.” (Such pompous piffle isn’t unique; in 2023, the Economist’s editor-in-chief Manny Zinton Beddoes introduced an Economist article that explained “why the Middle East still matters to the world.” Note the complex arrogance embedded in that comment, that it is or has been a reasonable question as to whether the Middle East matters, and that you, as a dimwitted reader, will need some pedigreed ponce to explain to you the ‘why’. Go back to the 19th century.)

But anyway, step back and consider what the west is focused on, versus what the rest of the world is focused on. We follow the minutiae of sheer crap like Taylor Swift’s love life or George Clooney’s open letter about old man Biden like it is worthy of something; BRICS countries are quietly rearranging the furniture and changing the locks on the doors. We demand the world switch to ‘green initiatives’ like EVs, then slam the doors on Chinese EVs that would make them affordable to North Americans and hasten a transition. 

I’m not sweeping under the rug any of Putin’s considerable transgressions, or commenting at all on China’s strategic moves that may not align with Western ideals. They do what they do internally, and we can’t do anything about that. The point is that all of this is going on and we pretend it isn’t, because we don’t like the players or the game. 

Nowhere is this more evident than with respect to energy. Five years ago, we in the hydrocarbon sector had to listen to ignorant grandstanding blowhards explain, without a shred of energy knowledge, that hydrocarbons were so last-century, that there was no need or role for natural gas in an energy transition, that oil demand peaked in 2019 and would never recover. Every one of these dumbass claims lies trampled in the dust, and there has been not an iota of soul-searching or admission of error or recalibration; all we see is a doubling down on the same dumb thinking that went into the first cocktail of wild-eyed projections (go figure; the zealots strong-armed the International Energy Agency into an energy-transition propaganda  powerhouse, forcing them to behave as some sort of macro support dog as their leg of ‘science’. It’s no wonder they have not much to say when the results are so hopelessly far off the mark from what they were wishing for.)

Related to energy is the auto industry, where calamity now reigns supreme. Western automakers were ensured that consumers were going to switch en masse to EVs – not hybrids, but EVs – because governments were going to make them. Many countries including Canada have legislated internal combustion engines out of existence past dates in the mid 2030s. So all you SUV-spewing auto companies, get on with the transition. 

Fine, they all said, and set about building EV manufacturing facilities and battery plants. Five billion here, ten billion there, and they’re off and running, ready for governmental zero-emissions mandates. Then, a scant few years into the forced migration, a few unforeseen developments arose (not really unforeseen, more like ‘wished away’, they should have been obvious…). Consumers became lukewarm on the whole EV idea, and have decided hybrids are what they really want. Now, big players like Ford are scrambling to get more hybrids to market (wise ones like Toyota never bought into the whole idea in the first place, and now have a hybrid version of every vehicle). 

On the EV front, imagine that, China took their battery and metals processing dominance, their growing engineering prowess, and all the tricks they’ve learned from forced JVs with western companies and began a global flood of reasonably priced and well-built EVs. (China, in 2018, net imported $30 billion worth of autos. In 2023, they net exported $80 billion, and climbing rapidly. Some turnaround.) Now the west is panicking because of what those machines could do to home market manufacturers, and they’re caught between a rock and a hard place: consumers are reluctant to switch to EVs in large part because of cost, and while Chinese firms have solved the cost problem, western governments can’t allow them to decimate native industries, and are thus excluding Chinese EVs from their markets via huge tariffs. China is undeterred, and, coming back full circle to the BRICS story, is developing vast markets for their products in developing countries. 

The 3.5 billion BRICS people, plus a few billion more around the edges, are finding their feet, their strength, and their voice, and saying either overtly or via trade deals that “We think we can get along on our own, thanks anyway.”

This reworking of the global order should be front page news, as it is going to be rather cataclysmic for the golden billion. Haha. Get real. Good luck for that story to fight its way in front of the dancing bears. Another example: As mentioned, about ten days ago, Donald Trump came within an inch or two of being murdered live on national media. Kind of a big deal. And yet that story has been pushed from the front pages by what should be the most obvious and anticlimactic story imaginable, that an 81-year old with severely diminishing mental capacity stepped down from the most powerful seat in the world. Gee, who saw that coming. 

And next week will be an damning/hilarious/embarrassing/brilliant (ok scratch brilliant)/ridiculous video clip of Kamala or Donald or some grandstanding political boob, and we’ll watch it 50 million times and argue about it like our lives depend on it, and in the background China will quietly sign billions of dollars of development deals with developing countries; Russia, Iran, India and many others will continue strengthening cooperative channels that the west pretends doesn’t exist (we do see it: “Growing Cooperation Between Russia and China in Arctic, Pentagon Says” reports Reuters, and that the US, Canada, and Norway hope to sign a deal by year end to begin the process of building new icebreakers at some time in the next decade or two, at the regulatory speed these things work), and the frog will find at some point that the water is too hot to leap out of. And the North Korean flat top is going to be next year’s Gangnam Style must see. That we’d watch.

Source: Boereport.com

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The post While the west watches a game show, the rest build a new world order appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

CapMetro stops shift to all-electric bus fleet

Energy News Beat

Capital Metro is slamming the brakes on an ambitious goal of transitioning to an all-electric bus fleet, citing problems with the range of battery-electric buses.

Austin voters were promised a transit system with exclusively electric vehicles when they authorized a tax increase in 2020 to fund Project Connect, the largest transit expansion in the city’s history. Zero-emissions buses are quieter and don’t blast hot exhaust in the faces of people on the sidewalk.

Manoo Sirivelu
/
KUT News

CapMetro provides more than 24 million rides per year, including to Jude, age 6, during the ATX Kids Club Summer Camp.

“Honestly, we thought and hoped that the technology would progress a little faster than it has,” CapMetro CEO Dottie Watkins told KUT. “The biggest downside of a battery-electric bus today is its range.”

Diesel buses can run from early in the morning until past midnight. A battery bus only runs about 8 to 10 hours before it needs to be recharged, creating tough logistical hurdles in scheduling routes.

An analysis by the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) — a state-funded research agency at Texas A&M University — found battery-electric buses could only cover 36% of Capital Metro’s bus schedules.

“If [the route] is too long, it won’t make it,” said John Overman, a research scientist with TTI. “You’re going to have to charge them mid-route or wherever it is.” Austin’s hills drain batteries faster. So does trying to cool buses in the city’s oppressive heat.

Karina Lujan
/
KUT News

Keeping buses cool in the Texas heat requires extra energy that drains bus batteries faster.

But range shortcomings are only part of the problem.

Data obtained by KUT through the Texas Public Information Act revealed CapMetro’s battery-electric buses are far less reliable than their diesel counterparts. E-buses had mechanical failures on average every 1,623 miles over the last year — less than half the typical distance between failures for the fleet as a whole.

Mechanical problems, coupled with challenges in procuring parts and doing repairs, mean battery-electric buses are often unavailable for service. In 2022, almost 52% of e-buses were down, on average. In 2023, the number of vehicles out for repair improved slightly to an average of just under 50%.

“Getting the expertise up and being able to have those vehicles be as reliable as our old workhorse diesel buses have been is a challenge,” Watkins said. “It’s something that we are up to.”

On top of range and reliability issues, both companies Capital Metro hired to build its battery-electric buses faced major financial challenges. Proterra and New Flyer blamed the problems on pandemic-related supply chain issues and inflation that drove up manufacturing costs after major contracts were signed.

One of the two bus builders didn’t survive.

Proterra, a company from the San Francisco Bay area, went bankrupt last year and sold off the firm in pieces to pay back debtors. The new owner of Proterra’s e-bus business — Anaheim, California-based Phoenix Motorcar — still has no battery provider or vehicle software ready to deploy, TTI’s Overman said.

The other supplier — New Flyer — bled almost $300 million after the pandemic but appears to have staunched the wound. The Winnipeg, Canada company reported a smaller loss of $9 million in the first quarter of 2024 thanks to record-breaking order numbers.

CapMetro is operating 23 battery-electric buses among a fleet of 402 buses, not including commuter buses or shuttle buses. Another 87 e-buses already ordered are expected to be delivered by the end of the year. Some will replace aging diesel vehicles.

Once all the e-buses arrive, Watkins says, about a quarter of CapMetro’s fleet will be battery-powered. The agency will then “sit for a minute while we wait for the battery technology to catch up.”

‘Not as easy as it seems’

By most measures, CapMetro is a leader in the shift to an all-electric fleet. With 25% electric buses, the transit agency’s adoption rate would exceed that of countries with far more political and financial support for zero-emissions vehicles like Belgium, Norway and Switzerland.

“China is a leader in electric bus sales, and about a quarter of the bus fleet in China is electric today,” said Elizabeth Connelly, a transportation electrification researcher at the Paris-based International Energy Agency. “So if Austin’s reaching that same level, I think it’s nothing to scoff at. I think it’s pretty impressive.”

Nathan Bernier
/
KUT News

Capital Metro has 23 battery-electric buses in the fleet with 87 more already on order and expected to arrive by the end of the year.

Santiago, Chile — considered a world leader in electric bus adoption — has 30% of its fleet running on batteries, Connelly said.

“Reaching the 100% level can be fairly tricky,” she said. “It’s not as easy as it seems.”

New buses ordered by Capital Metro over the next two to three years will be hybrid diesel vehicles, which are electric buses powered by an on-board diesel generator. The transit agency also wants to use federal grants to buy a small number of hydrogen fuel cell buses, an even more cutting-edge and untested technology than battery-electric buses.

The hybrid and hydrogen vehicles would have a similar range to a diesel bus, Watkins said.

A big bet on young technology

Capital Metro announced the shift to an all-electric fleet in 2018 under then-CEO Randy Clarke. The next year, Clarke invited TV cameras to watch a demolition crew smash down an old mattress factory to make way for a bus charging yard in North Austin.

“This is it!” Clarke exclaimed to reporters. “We’re knocking down an old facility … to build the bus fleet facility of the future.”

Mose Buchele
/
KUT News

Workers look on after a mattress factory was torn down in 2019 at the site of what is now a bus-charging facility in North Austin.

Later that day, the CapMetro board followed suit, authorizing the agency’s largest electric bus purchase ever at the time: 10 vehicles from Proterra. Each bus cost more than a million dollars, almost twice as much as the diesel buses approved for purchase the same day.

“We’re going to be able to save money, provide a better customer service and deal with climate change issues,” Clarke pledged to the board. In 2022, Clarke left Austin to lead the transit system in the Washington, D.C. area.

Proterra
/
Capital Metro

This marketing image of a Proterra battery-electric bus was presented to CapMetro board members before they approved an $11 million contract for 10 buses and associated charging equipment in 2019.

Some were hesitant about betting big on emerging technology. Eric Stratton, a Williamson County representative then just four months into his tenure on the CapMetro board, wondered if Proterra would be able to stand by its relatively new product.

“So that five years in, six years in, eight years in, [if] things start happening, we’ve got the support behind it so we can continue to maintain it. Do you all feel comfortable this is the case?” Stratton grilled Watkins, then vice president in charge of bus services.

“Yes, that is indeed the case,” said Watkins, enthusiastic about the future of electric propulsion. “Proterra’s a very strong partner and I have no concerns at all that they won’t be able to support the bus for the full life of the bus.”

The board gave unanimous approval to the $11 million contract. But that was just the beginning.

In 2021, the board shoved its stack of chips on the table. Capital Metro would plop down up to $255 million for 197 electric buses. This time, the deal would be split between two manufacturers: Canada’s New Flyer and Proterra, the politically connected California firm that hosted President Biden for a virtual tour earlier that year.

Long before CapMetro received all its electric buses, Proterra would be in a Delaware bankruptcy court chopping up the company and selling it off in pieces. Transit agencies across North America revealed private concerns in public court fillings, alleging the buses were mechanically unreliable, lost range in adverse weather and in rare cases would burst into flames.

Capital Metro admitted at the time of the bankruptcy proceedings that the shift to an all-electric fleet was hitting speed bumps.

“The reliability of electric buses no matter the manufacturer is less than a diesel bus. I’m not going to tell you they operate as well as diesel bus,” CapMetro chief operating officer Andy Skabowski told KUT last December. “We’re going to see some vehicles that are down a little bit longer than a diesel bus.”

Back to the future

Nathan Bernier
/
KUT News

An overhead view of buses parked at CapMetro’s North Ops facility on McNeil Drive north of U.S. 183.

While the shift to an all-electric fleet might be another Project Connect promise later revealed to be unrealistic — like the plans for a downtown subway system with underground shopping and dining — CapMetro has achieved other goals in the voter-approved transit expansion, even if some are running behind schedule.

A new CapMetro Rail station opened at Q2 Stadium, an additional set of rail tracks has been installed between Lakeline and Leander to allow for increased train frequency, more Pickup zones are being added and park and rides are under construction.

Michael Minasi
/
KUT News

Construction workers putting the final touches McKalla Station at Q2 Stadium before it opened in February.

A pair of high-frequency bus lines — one from the Travis County Expo Center to downtown and another from southeast Austin to northeast Austin — are on track to begin operations in 2025, two years behind schedule.

Those CapMetro Rapid lines were promised to be run exclusively with electric buses. But end-of-line fast-chargers to top off bus batteries during the day might not be installed at park and rides in time for the routes to be all-electric on launch day.

“We likely are not going to wait until that infrastructure is complete, though, to put any service on those routes,” Watkins said, but was unable to say when the new high-frequency routes would be run exclusively with e-buses.

Capital Metro now argues that having a reliable transit service, even with diesel buses, is better for the city and the environment than less reliable public transit with an all-electric fleet.

“If nobody wants to use the services, then we’re not going to have a good system in which people will continue to use it, which gets other vehicles off the street,” Stratton, the CapMetro board member, told KUT. “If that involves a stopgap measure to still ensure that we have the reliability on our system … we’re going to continue to do that now and into the future.”

Source: Kut.org

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OPEC: Oil Is Indispensable for Global Electrification

Energy News Beat

Oil and petroleum-based products are indispensable in the process of increasing electrification and expansion of power grids globally, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Monday, noting that the energy mix is not a zero-sum game.

The head of OPEC criticized claims that there would be only one winner in the drive to “electrify everything”.

“OPEC does not believe that energy sources are locked in a zero-sum game; nor can the history of energy be reduced to a succession of ‘energy replacement events,’” Al Ghais wrote in an article posted on OPEC’s website on Monday.

“Reality tells us that oil does not operate in isolation, cut off from other sectors and industries. Rather, such is the versatility of petroleum and petroleum-derived products that they play an indispensable role in a host of other sectors and industries,” the secretary general added.

Since oil is an essential part of the production and transportation of materials needed to expand power grids so that they could accommodate growing shares of renewables, the calls for a halt to investment in oil and gas are irresponsible, according to Al Ghais.

“To put it simply: calls to halt new investments in oil projects jeopardizes the production of oil products essential for the smooth functioning and expansion of the electricity grid,” OPEC’s secretary general wrote.

OPEC and its chief have recently criticized forecasts from energy pundits and from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that oil is on track for a peak in demand this decade and that renewables will rapidly replace much of the world’s need for oil.

Last month, Haitham Al Ghais said that peak oil demand is not on the horizon, and blasted the IEA’s prediction that global oil demand would peak before 2030.

“It is a dangerous commentary, especially for consumers, and will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale,” he said.

Source: Oilprice.com

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Amazon claims to power all its operations with renewable energy. If only that were true.

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When Amazon announced this month that it had achieved 100% renewable energy seven years ahead of schedule, that sounded like really good news for Virginia. Amazon owns more data centers here than anyone else, and data center energy demand is driving Dominion Energy Virginia’s plan to renege on its climate commitments, keep dirty coal plants online and build expensive new gas plants and transmission lines.

Unfortunately, Amazon’s announcement is so full of asterisks it looks like a starry night.

Let’s start with the good news. Amazon’s claim that it has purchased enough renewable energy to “match” its energy use is likely true, though its sustainability report doesn’t reveal essential details like how much energy the company uses. Amazon also says it is the largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy in the world, an impressive achievement.

Some of that renewable energy is in Virginia, so it is reasonable to say it serves the company’s data centers here. A map on Amazon’s website shows the company has invested in 19 solar farms in Virginia, with a capacity that totals around 1,386 MW  – about a quarter of all solar installed in Virginia to date. That’s terrific. If every company operating in Virginia did as much, we’d be rolling in solar, figuratively speaking.

So what am I complaining about?

One problem is that the energy appetite of Amazon’s data centers in Virginia far outstrips the output of all of its solar farms here. The other problem is that producing renewable energy in the middle of the day can only very loosely be said to “match” energy used at other times of the day and night. Meeting energy demand on a 24/7 basis is harder, and Amazon isn’t even trying.

Let’s start with the numbers. Because the sun doesn’t shine all the time, a large solar array produces, on average, 22-25% of what it produces on a cloudless day at noon. (That percentage is known as the facility’s capacity factor.) At a 25% capacity factor, Amazon’s 1,386 MW worth of solar panels produce enough electricity to “match” about 347 MW of demand.

Amazon keeps its energy demand in Virginia a secret, but we can be pretty sure its 110 data centers here use way more than that. A 2019 Greenpeace report estimated Amazon’s Virginia data center demand at 1,700 MW in operation or under construction, an amount that would call for 6,800 MW of solar. Amazon rejected Greenpeace’s estimate at the time, but it didn’t supply a better one. More recent estimates suggest Amazon’s energy appetite in Virginia is on its way to 2,700 MW, enough to require the output of around 11,000 MW of solar.

Luckily for us, Virginia is part of PJM, a regional transmission grid that covers all or parts of 13 states plus Washington, D.C. Generation sources located anywhere in the region can serve a Virginia customer, and Amazon’s map shows it has utility solar and wind projects in several PJM states. By my count, these add up to as much as 4,000 MW of additional renewable energy that could be allocated to Virginia data centers, if Amazon had no other operations in those states that it wanted to power. (Which, however, it does.)

Adding together its solar in Virginia and elsewhere in PJM still leaves Amazon short of what it likely needs. So, if the company is correct that it has secured enough renewable energy to match all of its demand, a lot of those facilities must be in other regions or other countries. Yet the climate benefit of Amazon’s solar farms in (for example) Spain, which gets more than 50% of its electricity from renewable energy, is significantly less than the climate benefit of solar in PJM, where the percentage of wind and solar combined still hangs in the single digits.

I will – almost – give Amazon a pass on this point. PJM has been so appallingly slow to approve new generation that Amazon could well have as many projects in the “queue” as online. PJM claims it will catch up in the next year and a half, and when that happens, perhaps Amazon won’t feel the need to obfuscate.

Even if Amazon were “matching” all its energy needs with wind and solar in PJM, though, it’s the second problem that troubles me more. Building solar and wind is cheap; Amazon very likely makes a profit on it. Actually ensuring renewable energy provides all the juice for the company’s operations every hour of every day, on the other hand, would require a heck of a lot of expensive energy storage. And Amazon is not doing that.

Without energy storage, solar delivers electricity only while the sun is shining. The rest of the time, Amazon’s data centers run on whatever resource mix the local utility uses. In both Virginia and PJM’s territory, fossil fuels make up the great majority of the mix. Building more Amazon data centers in Virginia increases the burning of fossil fuels, causing more pollution and raising costs that are borne by the rest of us.

 Amazon’s HQ2 in Arlington, Virginia. (Sarah Vogelsong/Virginia Mercury)

The self-styled climate hero turns out to be a climate parasite, harming people to make itself look good.

Combining renewable energy with storage to achieve true carbon neutrality isn’t prohibitively expensive. Other leading tech companies seem to be making that extra effort, with Google notable for its commitment to meeting its energy demand with renewable energy and storage on a 24/7 basis.

Amazon’s failure to rise to this challenge explains why, in spite of its massive investments in wind and solar, the company’s carbon footprint actually rose by 34% since the launch of its Climate Pledge in 2019, when it set a target of net zero carbon emissions by 2040.

That explains why, a year ago, the Science Based Targets initiative, a U.N.-backed organization that monitors corporate net-zero plans, removed Amazon from a list of companies taking action on climate goals. According to press reports, Amazon failed “to implement its commitment to set a credible target for reducing carbon emissions.”

Among those least impressed with the company’s efforts are its own workers. Last year, Amazon Employees for Climate Justice accused the company of failing in its climate commitments, and the group released its own report this month alleging multiple climate failures, including using “creative accounting” to inflate its achievements.

If Virginia is serious about meeting the climate challenge, we can’t blindly accept rosy claims from corporations whose central goal is not sustainability, but growth. Data centers whose energy demand isn’t met on a 24/7 basis from zero-carbon sources located on the same grid are not part of the climate solution, they are part of the problem. And currently, Amazon’s data centers are making the problem worse.

Source: Virginiamercury.com

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The post Amazon claims to power all its operations with renewable energy. If only that were true. appeared first on Energy News Beat.