Alaskan Tribes ‘Applaud’ Interior’s Move To Restore Oil And Gas Leasing

Energy News Beat

ENB Pub Note: Alaska is very dear to my heart with all of my trips to Alaska and my Grandfather being attributed for being a major discovering geologist of the North Slope formations, it is great to see the Alaskan natives in positive support of the drilling programs. Oil and gas mean a lot of great jobs and income for the Alaskan markets, and the oil companies are the best in the world for minimizing the impact on the environment. 


Alaska Natives are celebrating the Interior Department’s decision to reinstate oil and gas leasing and expansion.

​Alaska Natives celebrated the Department of the Interior’s (DOI) decision to reinstate leasing and expansion for Alaska’s oil and gas, community leaders told the Daily Caller News Foundation. [emphasis, links added]

DOI announced Thursday that DOI Secretary Doug Burgum is “taking immediate steps to unleash Alaska’s untapped natural resource potential and support President Donald Trump’s vision of American Energy Dominance,” [by] reopening oil drilling in areas that the Biden administration had previously moved to shut down.

Native community leaders in Alaska told the DCNF that the DOI under the Trump administration has taken a step in a “favorable” direction.

“It’s cautious optimism,” Nagruk Harcharek, president of Voice of the Arctic Iñupiat (VOICE), a nonprofit organization that represents 21 different Native American corporations and communities in Alaska, told the DCNF.

“We feel like we’re going to be able to get some things done with a more favorable administration, but we’re also being careful about it because we don’t want to threaten that cultural base and lifestyle that we rely on every day.”

Drilling activity is again open for development on the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPR-A) and the Arctic Wildlife National Refuge’s (ANWR) Coastal Plain after the Biden administration moved to forward a 2023 proposed rule to shut down development in 2024.

VOICE and its members announced that they “applaud the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Actions on the North Slope,” in a March 20 press release shared with the DCNF.

“It was just a constant barrage of surprise after surprise,” Harcharek recalled the actions of the Biden administration to the DCNF.

Harcharek referenced that the previous administration claimed to be the “most tribally friendly administration in the history of the United States,” though the native communities in the North Slope of Alaska “didn’t get that sentiment whatsoever.”

Harcharek signaled that the Biden administration promised “meaningful consultation with the Indigenous communities who stand to be most affected by policy decisions,” on paper, and that they “were hopeful that it would be included in those dialogues” surrounding the National Petroleum Reserve.

He said there was “very minimal consultation,” though this impacts his communities’ “backyard.”

“Oftentimes, we were finding out policy changes in the news,” Harcharek said. “Which is not ideal when they have our phone numbers.”

Read rest at Daily Caller

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Maine’s Climate Lawfare Heats Up: New Bill Seeks To End AG’s Anti-Fossil-Fuel Lawsuit

Energy News Beat

A new Maine bill aims to end AG Frey’s climate lawsuit against big oil, prioritizing the state’s well-being over politically driven battles.

​The battle over climate lawfare in Maine is heating up.

State Representative William Tuell (R-East Machias) introduced LD 635 last month, a bill designed to put an end to Attorney General Aaron Frey’s frivolous lawsuit against major oil companies. [emphasis, links added]

The bill is as straightforward as it is necessary: it seeks to “direct the attorney general to drop the lawsuit filed against big oil companies concerning climate change.”

At its core, this legislation is about prioritizing Maine’s economic well-being over politically driven legal maneuvers.

Frey’s lawsuit is just the latest example of the climate litigation campaign targeting the fossil fuel industry – a movement that ultimately hurts consumers and businesses while achieving little in terms of real climate solutions.

Climate Lawfare Is Not the Answer

In addition to the business and economic development groups calling Frey’s suit for what it is – a political “Hail Mary” to save face amid a personnel scandal – the Maine Policy Institute (MPI) emphasized the implications it has for Mainers, which relies on oil and gas more than any other state in the country:

“Lawsuits against big oil are costly and time-consuming, and it is wholly inappropriate to initiate with such lengthy chain-of-causation support when Maine is already in dire financial straits.”

History has shown that similar lawsuits have been nothing more than prolonged courtroom spectacles.

Cases brought in states like Maryland, New Jersey, and Delaware have been either dismissed outright or severely limited due to the legal challenges of holding individual companies responsible for a global phenomenon.

Even when cases proceed, such as the ongoing pursuit in Hawaii, they often take years, if not decades, to conclude and ultimately line the pockets of trial lawyers while offering no tangible benefits to the public.

Instead of litigation, market-based solutions should be the focus, MPI emphasized. The energy industry is already transitioning toward lower-carbon technologies through private investment and innovation.

Attempting to punish energy companies through lawsuits ignores this reality and risks driving up costs for Mainers who rely on affordable and reliable energy.

AG Aaron Frey’s Politically Motivated Legal Crusade

Frey’s lawsuit is not an isolated case, it’s part of a broader trend of using the Attorney General’s office for politically charged legal action.

Over the past several months, Frey has inserted Maine into multiple high-profile legal fights alongside other blue-state attorney generals, which are all exclusively focused on opposing the other side of the aisle.

The Maine Wire reports that the Maine AG’s caseload has shifted significantly since Frey’s appointment, and in a clear political direction:

“All of these actions share a distinct ideological bent, and taken together they form an argument that Frey is using the office of the attorney general in a more politically-driven manner than at any time in recent memory.”

The timing of his actions raises serious questions, specifically regarding its correlation to the results of the 2024 Presidential Election.

Frey has faced criticism for shifting the Attorney General’s office away from traditional state-level concerns like fraud investigations and public safety, opting instead to chase high-profile lawsuits that align with a broader partisan agenda.

His involvement in climate lawfare, in particular, seems more about political posturing than the promotion of sincere and meaningful environmental policy.

Additionally, Frey’s increasing involvement in politically charged legal battles likely coincides with his efforts to rebuild credibility after facing past controversies during a contested race for the AG position.

The Maine Wire details the all-too-likely timing of Frey’s climate lawsuit:

“There is potentially more to this politicized bent than the return of the Trump administration, though. Frey joined the suit against ‘big oil,’ for instance, at a time when he was being challenged for his job by Kennebec County District Attorney Maeghan Maloney, who is seen as being even further to the left ideologically.”

While public officials often seek to shape their legacies, prioritizing high-profile litigation over Maine’s immediate concerns raises doubts about whether these actions truly serve the state’s best interests.


Top image of AG Aaron Frey via News Center Maine/YouTube screencap

Read rest at EID Climate

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Supreme Court Rejects Appeal In Youth-Led Climate Lawsuit

Energy News Beat

After multiple appeals, the Supreme Court declined to hear a youth-led lawsuit claiming the U.S. government worsened climate change.

​ The U.S. Supreme Court on March 24 declined to hear an appeal in a [2015] lawsuit led by minors that alleged the U.S. government has unconstitutionally deprived the children of rights to life and liberty by causing climate change to worsen. [emphasis, links added]

Justices in an unsigned decision denied certiorari to a petition from Kelsey Cascadia Rose Juliana and 20 other minors. No justices [explained] the decision.

Plaintiffs sued the government in 2015, alleging that the U.S. government for decades “has known that carbon dioxide (‘CO2’) pollution from burning fossil fuels was causing global warming and dangerous climate change, and that continuing to burn fossil fuels would destabilize the climate system on which present and future generations of our nation depend for their wellbeing and survival.”

Actions taken despite that knowledge, including the approval of a liquid natural gas terminal in Oregon, endangered the youth, the suit said.

In a split decision, a U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit panel decided in 2020 that the relief the plaintiffs sought, including an order mandating the government develop a plan to phase out fossil fuel emissions, “is beyond our constitutional power.”

The court instructed U.S. District Judge Ann Aiken to dismiss the case. Aiken declined, allowing plaintiffs to amend their complaint.

In 2023, she ruled in favor of the minors, finding that plaintiffs had adequately alleged that their constitutional rights were being infringed by the government’s actions.

“The judiciary is capable and duty-bound to provide redress for the irreparable harm government fossil fuel promotion has caused,” the judge said at the time.

The Ninth Circuit in 2024 again sided with the government, upholding the 2020 ruling and telling Aiken to dismiss the litigation.

Plaintiffs lodged a petition with the Supreme Court, asking justices to intervene. That led to Monday’s denial.


Top photo of young climate protesters by Ronan Furuta on Unsplash

Read rest at Epoch Times

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Petronas to supply LNG to PetroVietnam Gas

Energy News Beat

PV Gas said in a statement on Thursday that the two firms have signed an agreement for the supply of LNG for delivery in early April.

The deal is worth about 1,000 billion Vietnamese dong ($39.1 million), according to PV Gas.

This deal marks the beginning of LNG supply cooperation between the two parties in the Vietnamese market, it said.

In addition, the two sides also discussed potential cooperation opportunities in the gas and LNG value chain to meet Vietnam’s growing energy needs.

The two sides agreed to continue discussing and concretizing cooperation agreements in the upcoming period, including evaluating opportunities to purchase and sell LNG under medium and long-term contracts, PV Gas said.

PV Gas noted that Petronas is a major LNG supplier with an annual sales volume of about 33 million tonnes of LNG.

Last year, the Malaysian company’s LNG sales rose by 9 percent year-on-year to 35.7 million tonnes. This compares to 32.90 million tonnes in 2023. Sales also rose compared to 34.23 million tonnes in 2022.

In 2024, Petronas delivered 398 LNG cargoes, or 25.13 million tonnes, from the giant 30 mtpa Bintulu LNG export facility in Sarawak.

Petronas also operates two floating LNG facilities, namely the 1.2 mtpa PFLNG Satu, and the 1.5 mtpa PFLNG Dua, both located offshore Sabah.

Petronas has delivered 36 LNG cargoes, or 2.17 million tonnes, from these two floating LNG producers in 2024.

It is also building the third FLNG unit which will increase Petronas’ LNG production from floating LNG facilities from 2.7 mtpa to 4.7 mtpa.

PV Gas is boosting its LNG business, and it recently signed a memorandum of understanding with US FSRU player Excelerate Energy to collaborate on securing US LNG as early as 2026. It also signed a similar deal with US energy giant

According to PV Gas, LNG import deals from the US will help the company to contribute to the implementation of Vietnam’s LNG import plan, expected to reach 9 million tons/year by 2030, increasing to 15 million tons/year by 2035, with an estimated total value of $7.2 billion per year.

These memorandums came days after PV Gas revealed its plans to deploy an FSRU in Vietnam next year, adding to its Thi Vai LNG import terminal.

According to PV Gas, this FSRU will have a storage capacity of 135,000 – 174,000 cbm of LNG and a regasification capacity of up to 14 million Sm3/day, bringing the total regasification capacity of the entire system to about 22 million Sm3/day.

This is a strategic step, ensuring a stable and flexible LNG supply for the national power generation system during peak periods, PV Gas said.

The firm also noted that it is accelerating the upgrade of the Thi Vai LNG terminal in phase 2, with a plan to increase capacity from 1 mtpa to 3 mtpa by 2029.

PV Gas said this will not only help increase gas supply capacity for power plants but also contribute to stabilizing electricity prices.

 

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Glenfarne becomes majority owner of Alaska LNG

Energy News Beat

In January this year, Glenfarne confirmed it had entered into an exclusive agreement with AGDC for the development of the Alaska LNG project, including the Alaska export facility, pipeline, and a carbon capture facility,

AGDC and Glenfarne executed a letter of intent in June 2024 and an exclusive term sheet in December 2024 in advance of this binding agreement.

Glenfarne announced the signing of definitive agreements in a statement on Friday under which its unit Glenfarne Alaska LNG becomes the majority owner of Alaska LNG, the sole federally permitted LNG export project on the US Pacific Coast.

Alaska LNG is designed to deliver North Slope natural gas to Alaskans and Alaska utilities and export up to 20 million tonnes of LNG per year (mtpa).

Under the agreement, AGDC is divesting 75 percent of 8 Star Alaska, a subsidiary AGDC created to hold and manage all Alaska LNG project assets, to Glenfarne.

Glenfarne said it assumes the role of Alaska LNG’s lead developer and will lead all remaining development work of Alaska LNG from front-end engineering and design (FEED) through to a final investment decision (FID).

AGDC remains a 25 percent owner of 8 Star Alaska and a key partner to Glenfarne on the project, it said.

Alaska LNG’s three subprojects are an 807-mile 42-inch pipeline, the 20 mtpa LNG export terminal in Nikiski, Alaska, and a North Slope-based carbon capture plant to remove and safely store 7 million tons of carbon dioxide annually.

Glefarne is traheting a final decision on the pipeline project in 2025.

In light of steadily declining gas production from Cook Inlet, which has historically been Alaska’s primary in-state natural gas basin, phase one of the project will kick off immediately, prioritizing the development and final investment decision of the pipeline infrastructure needed to deliver North Slope gas to Alaskans as rapidly as possible, Glenfarne said.

Following a successful FID, Alaska will retain a 25 percent share in 8 Star Alaska and have the option to invest up to 25 percent in any or all of the three 8 Star Alaska subprojects, it said.

Glenfarne CEO and founder Brendan Duval said Glenfarne’s financial, project management, and commercial expertise is “well matched to lead this vital project forward.”

“Alaska LNG will provide desperately needed energy security and natural gas cost savings for Alaskans and give Glenfarne unmatched flexibility to simultaneously serve LNG markets in both Asia and Europe through our three LNG projects. Glenfarne strongly believes in the benefit of partnering with the communities where we work, and we are already building our Alaska team to bring Alaska LNG to life,” he said.

Taiwan’s CPC Corp just signed a letter of intent with AGDC to buy LNG and invest in the planned Alaska LNG project.

AGDC recently said that market interest in Alaska LNG continues to accelerate “rapidly” following the agreement with Glenfarne and President Trump’s executive order identifying Alaska LNG as a national priority.

Besides Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea may be interested in buying LNG from Alaska.

Shipping LNG from Alaska to Asian countries would take less time and effort compared to US Gulf Coast LNG export plants, as LNG carriers would not need to pass through the Panama Canal.

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Gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals flat

Energy News Beat

EIA said, citing data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, that average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals were essentially unchanged this week at 16.4 Bcf/d.

Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased 2.3 percent (0.3 Bcf/d) to 11 Bcf/d, and natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas decreased by 5.1 pecent (0.2 Bcf/d) to 4.2 Bcf/d.

EIA noted that Gulf South Pipeline Company declared a force majeure on March 24 for the Stratton Ridge location, which delivers natural gas to the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas, following a suspected lightning strike at the location.

Deliveries of natural gas resumed the next day when Gulf South lifted the force majeure after concluding the facilities had not suffered a lightning strike.

EIA said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d this week.

The agency did not provide data for the number of US LNG cargoes for the week under review, as it usually does.

During the week ending March 19, US LNG export terminals shipped 26 LNG cargoes.

This compares to 29 shipments and 110 Bcf in the week ending March 12.

EIA said that the Henry Hub spot price decreased 36 cents from $4.22 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $3.86/MMBtu this Wednesday.

The price of the April 2025 NYMEX contract decreased 39 cents, from $4.247/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.861/MMBtu this Wednesday.

EIA said the price of the 12-month strip averaging April 2025 through March 2026 futures contracts fell 35 cents to $4.450/MMBtu.

EIA said in a separate report that the US exported 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG in 2024, remaining the world’s largest LNG exporter.

LNG exports from Australia and Qatar—the world’s two next-largest LNG exporters—have remained relatively stable over the last five years (2020–24); their exports have ranged from 10.2 Bcf/d to 10.7 Bcf/d annually, according to data from Cedigaz.

Russia and Malaysia have been the fourth- and fifth-largest LNG exporters globally since 2019. In 2024, LNG exports from Russia averaged 4.4 Bcf/d, and exports from Malaysia averaged 3.7 Bcf/d.

US LNG exports remained essentially flat compared with 2023 mainly because of several unplanned outages at existing LNG export facilities, lower natural gas consumption in Europe, and very limited new LNG export capacity additions since 2022, the agency said.

In December 2024, Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 shipped its first export cargo, becoming the eighth US LNG export facility in service.

“We estimate that utilization of LNG export capacity across the other seven US LNG terminals operating in 2024 averaged 104 percent of nominal capacity and 86 percent of peak capacity, unchanged from the previous year,” EIA said.

While Europe (including Türkiye) remained the primary destination for US LNG exports in 2024, accounting for 53 percent (6.3 Bcf/d) of the total exports, the share of US LNG exports to Asia increased from 26 percent (3.1 Bcf/d) in 2023 to 33 percent (4 Bcf/d) in 2024.

US LNG exports to other regions, including the Middle East, North Africa, and Latin America, also increased last year and accounted for 14 percent (1.6 Bcf/d) of total exports, compared with 8 percent (0.9 Bcf/d) in 2023, EIA said.

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Lawsuit and petitions filed against three US offshore wind projects

Energy News Beat

Town officials filed an appeal in the US District Court for the District of Columbia, challenging the decision by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) to allow the SouthCoast Wind project to move forward despite admitting it would “tarnish Nantucket’s world-renowned views”.

Nantucket officials argue that BOEM’s approval violates both the National Historic Preservation Act and the National Environmental Policy Act, laws that ensure federal agencies mitigate harm to historic sites before clearing projects. The town has enlisted Cultural Heritage Partners as special legal counsel for the lawsuit.

The town also cited concerns that the incident at Vineyard Wind, when one of its massive turbine blades disintegrated and filled the town’s beaches with debris, could be repeated with other projects.

“Our economy depends on heritage tourism. If people stop coming to Nantucket, that hurts our small businesses, our workers, and our community,” added Matt Fee, vice chair of the select board.

Furthermore, the Nantucket-based ACK for Whales is asking the US Environmental Protection Agency to rescind permits granted to Vineyard Wind and New England Wind to construct and operate their offshore wind farms.

The group filed a petition against Vineyard Wind earlier this week, asking the EPA to revoke the permit. The permit was granted in 2021 and amended in 2022. Vineyard Wind is currently under construction. Previously, the group filed a similar petition against New England Wind.

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In the South & West, Pending Sales of Existing Homes Mark Worst February in the Data, as Inventories in Florida, Texas, California Surge

Energy News BeatPrice

Frozen sales meet ballooning inventories.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Pending home sales are a forward-looking indicator of “closed sales” of existing homes to be reported over the next couple of months. From the National Association of Realtors today, seasonally adjusted:

  • In the West, pending home sales dropped further, marking the worst February in the data going back to 2011, and just above the all-time low of October 2023.
  • In the South, pending sales in February rose from the all-time low in January and mark worst February on record.
  • In the Northeast, pending sales dipped further, mark worst February on record.
  • In the Midwest, pending sales ticked up a hair, mark worst February on record.

So overall US pending home sales ticked up a hair from the record low in January, and also marked the worst February in the data, seasonally adjusted. They’ve been hobbling along the bottom for over two years, pounded down by too-high prices that don’t work at all with the current mortgage rates. Compared to the Februarys in prior years (historic data via YCharts):

  • 2024: -3.6%
  • 2023: -11.4%
  • 2022: -31.4%%
  • 2021: -35.1%
  • 2020: -35.0%
  • 2019: -29.3%.

“Considering the Federal Reserve’s recent forecast for slower economic growth, we expect mortgage rates to slide moderately lower,” the NAR said in the report.

“But the current high national debt will prevent mortgage rates from falling drastically – and certainly not to the 4%-to-5% range seen during President Trump’s first term,” the report said.

Even the NAR has given up hopes for low mortgage rates to bail out the housing market.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.5% in the latest reporting week, and has been around 6.5% for four weeks, according to Freddie Mac today. It has been above 6% since September 2022.

Below-5% mortgage rates were brought about by QE and very low inflation. Now there’s the rebirth of the inflationary era, with higher interest rates to compensate lenders for higher inflation; and what NAR pointed out, there’s the huge national debt putting upward pressure on long-term rates, including mortgage rates.

Pending sales are based on contract signings and track deals that haven’t closed yet and could still fall apart or get canceled, for all kinds of reasons, such as buyers being unable to afford or even get homeowner’s insurance, or financing falling through. Signed contracts that eventually fall apart are included in pending sales, but not in the figures of closed sales reported later.

In the South: frozen sales, ballooning inventories.

Pending sales rose 6.2% in February from the all-time low in January, seasonally adjusted, marking the worst February in the data.

It’s precisely in the South where inventories for sale of new houses and existing homes are now piling up.

Pending sales in February compared to the Februarys in prior years (historic data via YCharts):

  • 2024: -3.4%
  • 2023: -12.1%
  • 2022: -32.2%
  • 2021: -35.3%
  • 2020: -33.5%
  • 2019: -28.7%.

Inventories of existing homes surged in Florida and Texas. In terms of transactions, Florida is the largest housing market in the US. Florida and Texas dominate the vast South (map of regions in the comments below). And that’s where inventories of existing homes are ballooning, which is a good thing because the housing market needs these inventories.

In Florida, active listings of existing homes surged by 34% year-over-year in February, to 168,717 listings, the highest in the data by Realtor.com going back to 2016.

In Texas, active listings of existing homes jumped by 25% year-over-year in February, to 105,867 listings, the highest for any February in the data by Realtor.com going back to 2016.

Active listings in Texas are highly seasonal: lows in January/February, highs in July/August. So we look at the stacked chart (big red squares = January and February 2025).

New single-family houses for sale in the South have ballooned past the Housing-Bust high since mid-2024 to a range between 290,000 to 304,000 houses for sale. In February, 296,000 new houses were for sale in the South, up by 72% from February 2019!

Massive incentives and lower prices by homebuilders have stimulated sales in the South, and in February, sales were up by 18% year-over-year. That’s what it takes to cure the issues of this housing market: lots of new inventory and lower prices.

In the West, frozen sales, ballooning inventories.

Pending sales of existing homes dropped 3.0% in February, to the second lowest levels behind only the all-time low of October 2023, marking the worst February in the data, seasonally adjusted.

Compared to the Februarys in prior years (historic data via YCharts):

  • 2024: -3.5%
  • 2023: -9.8%
  • 2022: -37.9%
  • 2021: -41.2%
  • 2020: -41.2%
  • 2019: -36.1%.

Inventory of existing homes in the West varies by area, and California may not be the most representative example of the West, but it’s by far the largest market in the West. So we’ll take a look.

Active listings of existing homes in California spiked by 43% in February from a year ago, to 52,144 homes, the highest February since 2019, and just a hair below February 2018 (big red squares = January and February 2025).

Inventory of new single-family houses surged in the West to 120,000 houses, the highest level since December 2007, and up by 60% from 2019.

Pending sales in the Northeast and Midwest.

In the Northeast, pending sales of existing homes fell by 0.9% in February from January, seasonally adjusted, the worst February in the data, and the third-worst month overall after August 2024 and Lockdown-April 2020.

Compared to the Februarys in prior years (historic data via YCharts):

  • 2024: -2.5%
  • 2023: -9.9%
  • 2022: -26.9%
  • 2021: -33.6%
  • 2020: -34.6%
  • 2019: -31.8%.

In the Midwest, pending sales rose by 0.7% in February from January, seasonally adjusted, marking the worst February in the data.

Compared to the Februarys in prior years (historic data via YCharts):

  • 2024: -4.7%
  • 2023: -12.4%
  • 2022: -27.3%
  • 2021: -30.3%
  • 2020: -32.8%
  • 2019: -21.4%.

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Global Rare Earth Market Poised for Transformation

Energy News Beat

  • A Chinese research institute predicts China’s share of rare earth materials could significantly decrease by 2035 due to new mines and emerging sources globally.
  • The United States is actively seeking alternatives to China’s rare earth supply, including exploring domestic deposits and building alliances with other refining networks.
  • New discoveries in Africa, Brazil, and the US, along with challenges to China’s dominance, are reshaping the rare earth ecosystem and potentially redistributing market power.

A rare earth metals report by none other than a state-backed research institute is not only likely to unsettle the Chinese authorities, it has also come as a bolt out of the blue for the rest of the world. A report by the Chinese Academy of Sciences released a few days ago said China’s dominance in the rare earths sector could be nearing the end.

But the disclosure does not stop there. It also outlines how the opening of new mines in Australia, South Africa and other countries, as well as Greenland’s Kvanefjeld project, may reshape the rare earths ecosystem in the coming years. This also serves to underline why the U.S. under President Donald Trump is so keen on Greenland. With the publication of this report, some experts believe that the changing scenario will favor the United States.

A Shock for the Rare Earth Metals Market

The study, which was published in the Chinese Rare Earths journal, is a rare admission of a forthcoming fundamental shift. The CAS team used advanced “agent-based” modeling to simulate demand and mining prospects globally between 2025 and 2040. Though this accurately simulated about 1,000 global deposits and over 140 viable mines, it did not factor in political influences.

Based on the results, the research team concluded that China’s roughly 62% share of raw material could drop to about 28% as early as 2035. The primary reasoning is the new emerging sources of rare earth metals. Incidentally, the research team is from the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy in Ganzhou in eastern China, one of the world’s largest critical metal production centers.

Today, China’s dominance of the supply chain for rare earths and other critical metals is near-total. The country sits on about 60% of global reserves and processes about 90% of all rare earth metals. Because of this, Beijing enjoys a near-monopoly in the supply of rare earth materials, which are essential for electric vehicles, electronics and even military equipment.

The United States, Africa, and Other Global Players

Since China produces about 2/3rd of the world’s total rare earth metals supply, the U.S. has been on the lookout for alternatives. A 2024 report by the United States Geological Survey said there were about 110 MT of deposits spread around the world. Of this, about 44 MT are in China, another 22 MT are in Brazil, followed by 21 MT in Vietnam, 10 MT in Russia and approximately 7 MT in India.

Now, it seems that Africa may also become a big player in the rare earth supply chain. Led by South Africa’s Steenkampskraal mine and other projects in Tanzania, experts predict Africa’s share may go up to from about 1% to 7% by 2040. But there is a red flag to consider, as Chinese investments fund many of the African projects, something the U.S. looks at with consternation.

The report also stated that Brazil’s Serra Verde and other projects related to heavy rare earths like dysprosium could meet about 13% of the global supply by 2040. However, there are caveats, such as environmental regulations. The CAS report adds that the neodymium-rich Mount Weld mine in Australia and the Olympic Dam mines, which produce copper and uranium as byproducts, are building U.S.-allied refining networks to bypass China.

New Discoveries by China and the U.S.

In January of this year, Beijing disclosed it had found a huge rare earth deposit in the southwestern province of Yunnan. According to reports quoting China’s Geological Survey, the 1.5 million ton deposit contains medium and heavy rare earths, including over 470,000 tons of elements like praseodymium and neodymium. At the time of the announcement, experts said that the discovery would only further consolidate China’s prominence as the global rare earth leader.

On the opposite side of the world, U.S. researchers announced in late 2024 that they had identified a domestic treasure trove of critical minerals in the country’s coal ash deposits. The report also claimed that coal ash, a byproduct from burning coal for energy typically written off as industrial waste, could hold about 11 MT of rare earth elements, or about eight times more than known domestic rare earth reserves.

This discovery, made by a team from The University of Texas at Austin, reveals a whopping US $8.4 billion worth of rare earths. The report led some experts to opine that harnessing these reserves could dramatically alter the supply chain dynamics for rare earth metals and reduce U.S. dependence on imports.

By Sohrab Darabshaw

The Metal Miner

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BP Approves Major Trinidad and Tobago Natural Gas Project

Energy News Beat

BP approved on Thursday the development of the Ginger natural gas project offshore Trinidad and Tobago, which will be one of the ten major new projects that the UK supermajor promised to start up by 2027.

In a strategy reset last month, BP said it is increasing its investment in upstream oil and gas to $10 billion per year while slashing spending on clean energy by more than $5 billion a year.

In the upstream, BP will aim for 10 new major projects to start up by the end of 2027, and a further 8–10 projects by the end of 2030. Production is also expected to grow to 2.3–2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in 2030, with capacity to increase to 2035.

The final investment decision (FID) on the Ginger project 50 miles off Trinidad’s southeast coast is one of these major projects.

Ginger will become BP Trinidad and Tobago’s fourth subsea project and will include four subsea wells and subsea trees tied back to its existing Mahogany B platform. First gas from Ginger is expected in 2027. At peak, the development is expected to have the capacity to produce an average gas production of 62,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

The Ginger development and the Cypre gas project, scheduled to start up in 2025, are part of BP’s strategy of maximizing production from existing acreage, developing capital-efficient projects that tie into existing infrastructure. The Ginger project meets BP’s expected returns from upstream projects and is fully accommodated within BP’s capital expenditure plans, the supermajor said today.

Offshore Trinidad, BP also announced on Thursday drilling success at the Frangipani exploration well, which identified multiple stacked gas reservoirs within the same geological structure. Options are currently being evaluated to move the discovery forward at pace.

At the end of last year, BP gave the green light to the Cypre gas project, where first gas is expected as early as this year. BP has two other subsea developments offshore Trinidad—Juniper and Matapal.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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