Explainer: Iran’s expanding oil trade with top buyer China

Energy News Beat

Nov 10 (Reuters) – China’s oil imports from Iran have hit record highs as Iran ramps up output despite the threat of further U.S. sanctions.

Existing sanctions were implemented over Iran’s nuclear programme, and U.S. lawmakers are seeking to exert further pressure after the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas, which has long been backed by Iran, although Tehran has denied any involvement.

U.S. lawmakers are now considering legislation that could impose measures on foreign ports and refineries that process petroleum exported from Iran.

Here are key facts on Iran’s oil trade with China:

HOW MUCH IRANIAN OIL IS CHINA BUYING?

China, the world’s largest crude importer and Iran’s top customer, bought an average 1.05 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil in the first 10 months of 2023, according to shiptracking data from Vortexa. This is 60% above pre-sanction peaks recorded by Chinese customs in 2017.

Imports jumped this year after Tehran raised output and offered steep discounts.

Tehran’s October output edged up to 3.17 million bpd, a Reuters survey found, the highest since 2018, when Washington re-imposed sanctions on Iran, according to Reuters surveys and OPEC figures.

China’s October imports from Iran are estimated to have reached around 1.45 million bpd, the highest monthly level ever, Vortexa data showed.

HOW DOES IRANIAN OIL ENTER CHINA?

Except for two cargoes in December 2021 and January 2022, China’s customs has not recorded any direct imports from Iran since December 2020.

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post Explainer: Iran’s expanding oil trade with top buyer China appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

BRICS should create their own internet – MP

Energy News Beat

Russian lawmaker Dmitry Gusev says such a network would help preserve traditional values

Russia should develop an alternative internet in collaboration with the other BRICS nations, the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Control Committee, Dmitry Gusev, has proposed.

According to a document seen by RIA Novosti, the official submitted a request to work on creating “a single inclusive BRICS+ cyberspace” to Maksut Shadaev, the head of Russia’s Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media. 

The proposal to develop “an internet where traditional values and goodness prevail” could be implemented “using technical, organizational and civilizational capabilities common to the entire association.”

According to Gusev, the 5th International Municipal Forum BRICS+, which is currently underway in the Russian city of St. Petersburg, is a good opportunity to discuss a unified internet for the BRICS countries.

BRICS currently comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, but will be joined by Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in January. The expanded group, referred to as BRICS+, is projected to represent nearly half of global GDP by 2040.


READ MORE:
BRICS+ could end dollar dominance – ex-White House adviser

Earlier this week, China’s President Xi Jinping also called for changes in the way the global internet works, to benefit people of all countries.

“We advocate prioritizing development and building a more inclusive and prosperous cyberspace,” he said at the opening ceremony of the 2023 World Internet Conference Wuzhen Summit.

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT’s business section

 

The post BRICS should create their own internet – MP appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Alaska Judge Sides With ConocoPhillips on New $7.5 Billion Oil Project

Energy News Beat

A federal judge upheld the Biden administration’s approval of ConocoPhillips’ 600-million-barrel Willow oil development in Alaska, a blow to environmentalists who argued it would imperil wildlife and exacerbate climate change.

The ruling by Alaska-based US District Judge Sharon Gleason means ConocoPhillips can continue developing the $7.5 billion project in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska that promises to eventually yield some 180,000 barrels of oil per day.

While equipment is being fabricated at Gulf Coast facilities, ConocoPhillips is preparing to resume on-site work during Alaska’s short, winter-operating season that could begin as soon as next month.

At issue is the Interior Department’s March approval of the controversial Willow project following a fierce lobbying battle, an opposition campaign that went viral, and fraught deliberations inside the administration, where the issue was seen as testing President Joe Biden’s campaign commitments to combat climate change.

Environmental and indigenous groups, including the Center for Biological Diversity, the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Sovereign Inupiat for a Living Arctic, argued the government violated the National Environmental Policy Act and other laws by failing to consider the full impacts of the project on climate change and species in the region. They said the government didn’t adequately consider options to meaningfully constrain the project’s oil production — and therefore its resulting carbon dioxide emissions — even as it ignored the greenhouse gas releases that could be unleashed from future developments that could be facilitated by Willow.

Some of the project’s challengers also took aim at the Fish and Wildlife Service’s determination that Willow wouldn’t harm polar bears that have dens in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska; the opponents argued instead that industrial oil operations pose a multi-faceted threat to the animals.

Gleason brushed aside those assertions Thursday, saying the Fish and Wildlife Service’s decisions — including its conclusion that Willow-related work was unlikely to injure non-denning polar bears — were “reasoned” and within the bounds of law. Environmental groups failed to prove the agency disregarded better available scientific evidence about the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions from the project, Gleason said.

Erec Isaacson, president of ConocoPhillips Alaska, celebrated the ruling, saying it “confirms our confidence” the government review complied with all legal requirements.

“Willow underwent nearly five years of rigorous regulatory review and environmental analysis, including extensive public involvement from the communities closest to the project site,” Isaacson said in a statement. “We now want to make this project a reality and help Alaskan communities realize the extensive benefits of responsible energy development.”

Erik Grafe, deputy managing attorney of the Alaska office for Earthjustice, which represented the Center for Biological Diversity, Defenders of Wildlife and other organizations, called the ruling “disappointing” and said the challengers planned to appeal.

“Beyond the illegality of Willow’s approval, Interior’s decision to greenlight the project in the first place moved us in the opposite direction of our national climate goals in the face of the worsening climate crisis,” Grafe said.

Siqiñiq Maupin, executive director of Sovereign Inupiat for a Living Arctic, said the ruling shows “the oil and gas industry exerts incredible power over those whose health and food are most impacted and who will most experience the climate harm and disaster this project will flame.”

The project’s backers have argued the government’s review was expansive. They also emphasized that crude extracted from the site inside the 23 million-acre National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska would be produced under more stringent environmental protections than elsewhere in the world, helping to bolster US energy security and provide an alternative to supplies from Russia.

Source: Bloomberg: 

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post Alaska Judge Sides With ConocoPhillips on New $7.5 Billion Oil Project appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

TotalEnergies Nears Deal to Buy Texas Gas Power Plants

Energy News Beat

ENB Pub Note: The European Big Oil companies seem to have returned to their core business even after their 90-degree turn away from “Renewable.” 

France’s TotalEnergies is looking to expand in the US
Gas plants have become more valuable in the Texas market

TotalEnergies SE is nearing a deal to buy a fleet of natural gas-fired power plants in Texas as it looks to expand in the US market, according to people familiar with the matter.

The 2.3-gigawatt portfolio is owned by independent power producer TexGen Power LLC and provides capacity equivalent to more than two nuclear reactors. That’s enough to serve nearly half a million homes on the hottest days in the US state, based on figures from the Texas grid operator.

A transaction could be announced as soon as next week, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. While talks are advanced, they could still be delayed or fall apart, the people said. If completed, the deal could be worth several hundred million dollars, according to some of the people.

TotalEnergies, based near Paris, declined to comment on “market rumors,” while adding that the company is “interested in acquiring gas-fired power plants to complement its renewable assets in the US” and that’s currently in “discussions with several potential sellers on this subject.”

TexGen didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

TotalEnergies has pursued gas plants to complement its growing fleet of wind and solar farms that provide more sporadic generation. Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said last month that the company might make such an acquisition in Texas. The French oil major is aiming to reach 100 gigawatts of renewable power globally by 2030, up from 20.2 gigawatts at the end of the third quarter.

Gas plants have become more valuable in the last couple of years amid supply issues, the rise of intermittent wind and solar generation and higher power prices in key markets like Texas. Total, which has been acquiring gas-fired plants in France, Belgium and Spain, plans to invest about $4 billion a year on power generation on top of expanding oil and gas production.

In Texas, many generators are reaping record revenues, or close to it, after the state grid operator pushed through reforms to help avoid a repeat of widespread blackouts in a deadly 2021 winter storm.

A critical driver of those reforms has been boosting profits at thermal plants — those running on nuclear, coal and gas — and to create incentives for new generation. Developers have been reluctant to pour billions of dollars into projects because of uncertainty about ongoing reforms and concerns that the flood of solar and battery facilities will curb power prices.

The purchase of TexGen plants would complement TotalEnergies’ recent foray in the US clean power market. The French company had a gross installed capacity of 6.2 gigawatts of solar and wind power in North America and a further 3 gigawatts in construction on the continent at the end of the third quarter, thanks to recent acquisitions such as a 50% stake in Clearway Energy Group.

Last month, the French energy giant started commercial operations at a 380-megawatt solar farm located south of Houston, which the company said produces enough green electricity to cover the equivalent consumption of 70,000 homes.

Source: Bloomberg: 

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post TotalEnergies Nears Deal to Buy Texas Gas Power Plants appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Oil and gas ‘not the problem’ for climate, says UK’s net zero minister

Energy News Beat

Oil and gas are “not the problem” for the climate, but the carbon emissions arising from them are, the UK’s net zero minister has told MPs.

In words that suggested the UK could place yet more emphasis on technologies to capture and store carbon, Graham Stuart said fossil fuel production was not driving climate change, but demand for fossil fuels was.

His statements were a bullish defence of the government’s much-criticised stance.

“I don’t think supply is the key driver – it is demand we need to focus on,” said Stuart, who will attend the Cop28 UN climate summit that begins later this month, where the future of oil and gas production will be under scrutiny.

Earlier this week, in the king’s speech, the government set out plans for new oil and gas licensing in the North Sea, which opposition parties and green campaigners said ran contrary to the UK’s climate goals.

Stuart said the UK had “no problems” on climate policy and was leading the world, in response to questioning from parliament’s environmental audit committee on Wednesday.

“If you really care about climate change, the last country you need to worry about is the UK,” he told MPs. “We are not the problem, it’s encouraging others to follow us on the net zero pathway, that is the biggest challenge.”

The UK’s statutory advisers, the committee on climate change (CCC), has warned that the UK is not on a pathway to meet its net zero goals. However, Stuart said the CCC had found aspects of climate policy that were improving.

A group of more than 80 countries, including the UK, called for the phaseout of fossil fuels at the Cop27 UN climate summit in Egypt last year, and are expected to make the same demand at Cop28 in Dubai.

However, Stuart’s comments to the committee raised questions over whether the UK would take such a strong position this year.

He told MPs: “There is nothing fundamentally wrong with oil and gas, it’s emissions from oil and gas that are the problem and that we must focus on.”

Focusing on emissions rather than fossil fuels is regarded as a distraction by many campaigners, or as cover for relying on technology for carbon capture and storage, which is not yet used at scale and may never be.

Jamie Peters, climate coordinator at Friends of the Earth, said: “Thank goodness Graham Stuart has enlightened us that there are no fundamental problems with continuing to back oil and gas, because it’s only the government’s own climate advisers, the International Energy Agency and the world’s top scientists who’ve strongly stated otherwise.”

Ami McCarthy, political campaigner at Greenpeace UK, called Stuart’s remarks “laughable”.

They said: “This government is completely failing on both supply and demand. It scrapped its own energy efficiency taskforce that was established to reduce demand through schemes like insulating our heat-leaking homes and upgrading boilers.

“To put the blame on demand from consumers, who have been left unsupported by this government, is a new low for a Conservative party who are hell-bent on attempting to weaponise climate action to sow division.”

Robbie MacPherson, political lead at the campaigning group Uplift, said the government was not a world leader on the climate while it was pursuing the expansion of fossil fuels.

“Greenlighting fields like Rosebank tells the world that the UK cannot be trusted in phasing out fossil fuels at exactly the time we need the world to come together at Cop28 to make progress on this issue,” he said.

“The UK has been and can again be a world leader in reducing emissions but for that to happen the government must rapidly end its political gameplaying on oil and gas.”

I hope you appreciated this article. Before you move on, I was hoping you would consider taking the step of supporting the Guardian’s journalism.

From Elon Musk to Rupert Murdoch, a small number of billionaire owners have a powerful hold on so much of the information that reaches the public about what’s happening in the world. The Guardian is different. We have no billionaire owner or shareholders to consider. Our journalism is produced to serve the public interest – not profit motives.

And we avoid the trap that befalls much US media – the tendency, born of a desire to please all sides, to engage in false equivalence in the name of neutrality. While fairness guides everything we do, we know there is a right and a wrong position in the fight against racism and for reproductive justice. When we report on issues like the climate crisis, we’re not afraid to name who is responsible. And as a global news organization, we’re able to provide a fresh, outsider perspective on US politics – one so often missing from the insular American media bubble.

Around the world, readers can access the Guardian’s paywall-free journalism because of our unique reader-supported model. That’s because of people like you. Our readers keep us independent, beholden to no outside influence and accessible to everyone – whether they can afford to pay for news, or not.

Please support the Guardian,

Source: The Guardian

Real Estate Investor Pulse

1031 Exchange E-Book

ENB Top News 
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack

The post Oil and gas ‘not the problem’ for climate, says UK’s net zero minister appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

The EPA’s Coming Energy Catastrophe

Energy News Beat

The nation’s electric grid experts and operators now work in a constant state of emergency. There’s little if any respite in the change of seasons. Fears of soaring electricity demand overwhelming power supplies during searing summer heat are now matched by an equally unnerving fear millions will be left shivering in darkness during the coldest days of winter.

The question is no longer will there be rolling blackouts or grid emergencies but rather when or where.

This week, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is taking up the issue of grid reliability at a technical conference, pulling together some of the nation’s key stakeholders on the issue. This is an extraordinarily important opportunity to shed light on a catastrophe in the making and the policy decisions driving it.

Warnings over the threat posed by the loss of dispatchable sources of generation – namely fuel-secure coal power – have reached a crescendo over the past few months. And while the experts charged with keeping the heat and lights on have begged for policy relief, they’re getting just the opposite.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) regulatory agenda is making an alarmingly dangerous situation all but untenable.

EPA has launched a blitz of rulemakings at the U.S. coal and gas power plant fleets that threatens to dismantle 60% of the nation’s power supply nearly overnight. The U.S. coal fleet – a grid reliability backstop that regularly fills power supply gaps when other sources cannot, particularly during biting cold – is facing six rules designed to work in unison to accelerate plant closures.

Headlining this blitz is the so-called Clean Power Plan 2.0. The proposed rule would force coal and gas plant owners to make decisions almost immediately about the future of their plants and the adoption of technologies that – despite EPA’s claims otherwise – are nowhere near ready for commercial deployment. EPA’s mandate is a barely camouflaged order to close plants.

Grid operators, utilities, electric co-ops and even the nation’s federal energy regulators have made it abundantly clear that while the nation has been teetering on the edge of catastrophe, EPA’s agenda – if fully enacted – will likely be the dreaded push over the edge.

FERC Chairman Willie Phillips, handpicked by the Biden administration, recently told Congress, “I am extremely concerned about the pace of retirements we are seeing of generators which are needed for reliability.”

Jim Robb, the president and CEO of North American Electric Reliability Corporation, was asked during Congressional testimony if the generating capacity EPA’s regulatory agenda is forcing off the grid can be sufficiently replaced without incurring reliability impacts. He said, “Not in the timeframe we’re looking at. No.” He added, “Interagency coordination is absolutely needed for policies that impact generation, especially coal resources, to keep reliability at the forefront of the policy table.”

But interagency coordination – especially the robust collaborative work needed to evaluate the cumulative impact EPA’s rulemakings will have on grid reliability and resource adequacy – simply hasn’t happened. EPA has frankly rebuffed the expertise of the nation’s foremost reliability experts.

In fact, while EPA claimed it consulted FERC over the reliability impact of the proposed Clean Power Plan 2.0, commissioner James Danly submitted a blistering letter to the agency correcting the record. “The EPA did not consult the Commission,” he wrote. “I was not asked what I thought of the Proposed Rule’s effects on electric reliability, and I am not aware of my fellow commissioners having had their feedback solicited.”

Danly requested that EPA extend the comment period for the rule to wait for FERC’s reliability conference to help inform EPA’s administrative record. He wrote, “until the record of FERC’s technical conference is submitted in the docket, the EPA will lack the record evidence necessary to make an informed decision.”

Despite his letter and warning – and Congressional oversight expressing strong concerns at the lack of interagency coordination and a true cumulative impact analysis – EPA closed the comment period, only underscoring the agency’s dangerous nonchalance over the impact of its rulemakings.

FERC now has a chance to publicly hold EPA’s plans to account.

It’s past time the nation’s reliability regulators address the cumulative impact of EPA’s rulemakings and make the Biden administration answer to the danger posed by its regulatory onslaught.

The reliability of the nation’s power supply hangs in the balance. If EPA is unwilling to change course and recognize the threat posed by its rulemakings, FERC, Congress and the states must step in. The stakes are too large. It is common sense that the nation’s foremost reliability experts – not the EPA – should have the final say over the reliability and security of the nation’s supply of electricity.

Rich Nolan is president and CEO of the National Mining Association.

Source: Real Clear Energy 

The post The EPA’s Coming Energy Catastrophe appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

The Electric-Car Era Needs a Lot of Really Big Trees

Energy News Beat

VIDALIA, Ga.—Electric cars. The solar build-out. Washington’s rural-broadband initiative. Utilities bracing the grid for stronger storms. They all depend on the same thing: big trees.

The utility-pole business is booming, thanks to a flood of public and private infrastructure spending. So the hunt is on for the tallest, straightest, knot-free conifers, which are peeled, dried and pressure-treated at facilities such as

Koppers Holdings’ KOP 4.02%increase; green up pointing triangle

 pole plant in southeastern Georgia’s pinelands.

Employees cruise surrounding pine plantations, marking pole-worthy loblolly and longleaf and making offers. The bigger, the better these days, given how much more equipment and cable poles must hold in the era of fiber optics and electric cars, said Jim Healey, Koppers’ vice president of utility and industrial products.

For landowners, especially the families and individuals who grow much of the South’s pine, the pole boom means higher prices for standout trees than what sawmills pay.

Shareholders of the two firms that dominate the American pole business—as well as railroad ties—have also been winners. Over the past year, Pittsburgh’s Koppers and Montreal’s

Stella-Jones

 are up 49% and 87%, respectively, compared with a 16% rise in the S&P 500 stock index.

“Demand right now in North America for utility poles is outpacing capacity,” said

Stella-Jones

This summer Stella bought pole facilities in Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi, where it also opened a new peeling plant. Additional plants are planned for next year in British Columbia and North Carolina. Stella also installed automated drilling equipment at its Eugene, Ore., facility and is looking for other places robots can speed output.

Utility poles are most commonly made from Southern yellow pine. Jim Healey, Koppers’ vice president of utility and industrial products.

Koppers, which notched record domestic pole sales and profit during the summer quarter, is adding drying capacity to plants in Alabama, North Carolina and Virginia. A new one is under construction in Louisiana’s western woodlands to feed peeled poles to a rail-tie treating facility in a part of Texas without many pine trees.

“We see a very good peak market for the next three to five years,” Healey said.

Makers of concrete, steel and composite poles are also ramping up. Steel-pole supplier

Arcosa

 has a concrete-pole plant under way in Florida. RS Technologies raised about $270 million in debt and equity to expand factories in Utah and Ontario where it forms poles from polyurethane resin, and to build another in Houston. “It is an absolute infrastructure boom going on right now,” said RS CEO George Kirby.

Some demand may not materialize. High yields on supersafe Treasurys have drawn investors from dividend-paying utility stocks, which are on track for their worst year since the market rout of 2008. That has choked off an important way for utilities to raise money for big expenses, such as poles. Shares of renewable-energy developers have been hit even harder by high interest rates, as well as supply-chain problems, jeopardizing plans for wind and solar projects.

Still, many poles are needed no matter the financial-market conditions.

A chunk of the more than $60 billion allocated by the federal government to extend high-speed internet to rural areas will be spent on poles. So will some of the $1.2 trillion in 2021’s infrastructure bill. Meanwhile, last year’s climate, tax and healthcare law encouraged a boom in solar installations, many of which are sprouting up in remote locations and must be connected to the grid.

Plus, a lot of the more than 120 million wood poles standing in the U.S. need to be replaced. Many are decades older than they were intended to last and deteriorating, or built to outdated standards, such as the Hawaiian Electric poles toppled by hurricane-strength winds during this summer’s deadly fires. Woodpeckers are a persistent problem in the North.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Communications technology has come light years since telegraph lines were hung in the 1840s, but poles haven’t changed much. One difference is utilities and telecom companies want larger poles than before.

The most popular lately is a 45-foot Class 2 pole, said Brad Singleton, who manages Koppers’ Vidalia plant. That is taller and two sizes thicker than the 40-foot Class 4 pole that has long ruled the roadside.

“They don’t know what’s coming next,” Singleton said. “They want room to add things.”

Communications technology has come light years since telegraph lines were hung in the 1840s, but poles haven’t changed much. One difference is utilities and telecom companies want larger poles than before.

The most popular lately is a 45-foot Class 2 pole, said Brad Singleton, who manages Koppers’ Vidalia plant. That is taller and two sizes thicker than the 40-foot Class 4 pole that has long ruled the roadside.

“They don’t know what’s coming next,” Singleton said. “They want room to add things.”

Koppers’ Vidalia plant manager Brad Singleton. Quality-control workers await results from an X-ray spectrometer to see if poles have absorbed enough preservative.

The Class 4 pole owes its ubiquity to dimensions matching many mature trees, Healey said. “That’s how God grows trees,” he said. “God doesn’t grow a Class 2 pole.”

For those, Koppers must find giants and chop off their tapered tops to make a pole that meets the stouter specifications. Trees big enough could become scarce if demand for the largest poles keeps growing.

“Based on production data and current harvest schedules, there are not enough larger trees available to sustainably produce the quantity of 40-foot poles made today if the poles had to be two to four classes larger,” the North American Wood Pole Council warned in a 2020 paper. The trade group suggested utilities consider more, not larger, poles.

Koppers buys logs mostly from private landowners, who tend to grow pine trees for longer than industrial timber concerns with mills to feed, Healey said. Pole makers pay a premium over the next highest value product in each local wood market to get the top trees. Usually, that is sawlogs, which are cut into dimensional lumber. In some markets, pole mills must also outbid veneer mills.

The kilns at Koppers’ Vidalia pole plant run around the clock, shutting down only for Thanksgiving, Christmas and state inspections.

Southern pole mills have been paying roughly $20 a ton more for wood on the stump than sawmills, which paid about $26 a ton in the third quarter, said Jonathan Smith, executive director of pricing service TimberMart-South.

Except growers who planted stands specifically to produce poles, winding up with trees that make the cut is lagniappe. “If you’re growing loblolly pine plantations and you get some poles out of your stand, that’s bonus income,” Smith said.

Koppers’ Healey estimates that the average acre of planted pine yields five to seven poles.

“It takes a really, really good tree to make a pole,” said Rick Nelms, a consulting forester in Alabama who advises retirees, heirs and other nonindustrial landowners on timber sales. It is worth the trouble to comb the woods for them, he said, especially since two new pole plants opened nearby in Mississippi, boosting demand in that part of the pine belt.

Extraordinary measures are taken to fill orders for the largest wooden poles, like those along transmission lines. They are often Douglas fir or Western red cedar, prized for warding off insects, as in closets. Stella sometimes uses helicopters to pluck individual stems of cedar from Pacific Northwest forests.

Arborists climb the giants, cut the tops and limbs, affix neon flags and wedge back cuts into the butt. A helicopter with a grapple snaps off the stems and whisks them away with minimal damage to the surrounding woods.

Source: WSJ

The post The Electric-Car Era Needs a Lot of Really Big Trees appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Next month could decide Ukraine conflict – Macron

Energy News Beat

The time is not yet ripe for peace talks, but “fair and good negotiations” may be possible in the future, the French president says

The Ukraine conflict could reach a turning point by the end of this year, French President Emmanuel Macron has predicted, several months into Kiev’s counteroffensive, which has so far failed to make significant gains. However, he ruled out the possibility of Ukraine opening talks with Russia in the foreseeable future.

In an interview with the BBC released on Friday, Macron claimed that if Moscow prevails over Kiev, “you will have a new imperial power” in Europe that, he argued, would threaten many of its neighbors, including former Soviet republics.

The French leader reiterated that the West should continue to support Ukraine with military assistance, arguing that next month will be critical in the conflict. However, he did not specify how events in December could affect the eventual outcome.

Regarding a possible cessation of hostilities, Macron suggested that it is “not yet” time for Ukraine to come to the negotiating table with Russia, and that a decision on the matter should be made by Kiev independently. However, he said that at some point it might be possible to “have fair and good negotiations, and to come back to the table and find a solution with Russia”.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been underway since early June, but the frontline remains largely unchanged. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has estimated Ukrainian losses at more than 90,000 service members as well as 600 tanks and 1,900 armored vehicles since the start of the push.

US network NBC News reported last week that Western officials were engaged in “delicate” talks with Kiev to see whether it could consider some concessions to Russia to end the fighting. According to the article, the calls were driven by fears in the West that the hostilities have “reached a stalemate,” and that Ukraine is “running out of forces.”

Russia has repeatedly said it is open to talks with Kiev. Last autumn, however, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky signed a decree banning all negotiations with the current leadership in Moscow after four former Ukrainian regions overwhelmingly voted to join Russia in public referendums.

Last year, Macron suggested that any peace talks on Ukraine would have to include discussions on security guarantees for Russia, especially regarding the positioning of NATO forces in Europe. Ukrainian officials, however, rejected the idea out of hand.

 

The post Next month could decide Ukraine conflict – Macron appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Coming Soon: More Oil, Gas and Coal

Energy News Beat

It’s no secret that fossil fuels are still going strong, as we discussed last month. But a new United Nations-backed report paints an alarming picture of how dramatically coal, oil and gas production is expected to grow in the coming years.

If current projections hold, the United States will drill for more oil and gas in 2030 than at any point in its history, our colleague Hiroko Tabuchi reports. So will Russia and Saudi Arabia.

In fact, almost all of the top 20 fossil fuel-producing countries plan to produce more oil, gas and coal in 2030 than they do today. If those projections hold, the world would overshoot the amount of fossil fuels consistent with limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius — the level scientists say would result in vastly more life-threatening heat waves, drought and coastal flooding.

“Governments are literally doubling down on fossil fuel production; that spells double trouble for people and planet,” António Guterres, the United Nations secretary general, said in a statement accompanying the report. “We cannot address climate catastrophe without tackling its root cause: fossil fuel dependence.”

Country by country

Some of the increases are projected to take place in several large democracies whose leaders have pledged to stop adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

In the United States, where President Biden campaigned under a “no more drilling on public lands” slogan, the Willow project will extract 600 million barrels of oil from pristine federal land in Alaska. The U.S. is now the world’s biggest crude oil producer, and is ramping up exports of natural gas. Its two biggest oil companies are buying up smaller rivals in a bet that fossil fuels will remain profitable for decades to come.

Brazil, where President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has vowed to “prove once again that it’s possible to generate wealth without destroying the environment,” plans to increase its oil production by 63 percent and to more than double its gas output in the next decade.

India, which has promised to significantly expand renewable energy production, will more than double its production of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, by 2030.

Canada, which wrote its 2050 net-zero commitment into law, is on track to boost its oil output by 25 percent in the next 12 years.

Meanwhile, major fossil fuel producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia seem to be vying to become the last ones standing as the world transitions to cleaner energy sources.

Saudi Arabia, as Hiroko reported last year, has an “aggressive long-term strategy to keep the world hooked on oil for decades to come and remain the biggest supplier as rivals slip away.” The country plans to increase production by up to 47 percent by 2050.

Only a handful of countries among the biggest fossil fuel producers plan to reduce their total output by 2030, including the United Kingdom, Germany, Norway and China. China remains by far the world’s biggest fossil fuel emitter, largely through oil, gas and coal that it imports from other countries.

‘We need credible commitments’

As global leaders gather in Dubai for the United Nations’ climate talks known as COP28 later this month, there will once again be calls for collective action to reduce planet-warming emissions and expand renewable energy.

“COP28 must send a clear signal that the fossil fuel age is out of gas — that its end is inevitable,” Gutteres said. “We need credible commitments to ramp up renewables, phase out fossil fuels, and boost energy efficiency, while ensuring a just, equitable transition.”

But it’s far from certain that countries would reach an agreement about how — or whether — to phase out fossil fuels. This year’s talks are taking place in the United Arab Emirates, overseen by the chief executive of the state oil company, who expects production to expand “as long as the market demands it.”

In the absence of a tax on carbon, which has been politically untenable in the United States and elsewhere, there are few incentives for state-owned or private companies to cut production.

What’s more, the world still lacks examples of industrialized countries that have successfully moved away from oil and gas.

Norway has mostly phased out the use of fossil fuels for its own energy needs, but remains a major exporter of oil and gas. The country’s prime minister has said that phasing out fossil fuel “will have to come from the demand side,” not “political decisions to cut the supply side.”

Britain cut 46 percent of its emissions from 1990 levels, but in July announced that it would grant hundreds of new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea, as prime minister Rishi Sunak’s administration started to reverse earlier climate policies.

And Colombia’s government announced in January that it would ban all new oil drilling, but has faced harsh criticism and low approval ratings as it struggled to present a credible transition plan.

Until those basic dynamics change, the world is likely to face more emissions — and more intense warming — in the years ahead.

“It’s looking really dire,” said Niklas Hagelberg, the U.N. Environment Program’s global coordinator for climate change. “We’re really on life support here.

Source: The New York Times 

The post Coming Soon: More Oil, Gas and Coal appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

US credit rating downgraded to ‘negative’

Energy News Beat

International credit rating agency Moody’s has changed its outlook on the US from “stable” to “negative,” citing massive fiscal deficits and a notable decline in debt affordability as major reasons for the move on Friday.

The downgrade follows a similar announcement by fellow credit rating agency Fitch, which raised concerns over the state of US finances and the national debt burden when lowering its rating for the country earlier this year.

In its latest outlook, however, Moody’s did affirm the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the US at AAA.

“Continued political polarization within US Congress raises the risk that successive governments will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability,” the agency said in a statement seen by Reuters.

According to Moody’s analysts, in the context of higher interest rates, and without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues, US fiscal deficits will remain large, significantly weakening debt affordability.

Fitch had maintained the highest US credit rating since 1994, while S&P, another credit rating major, downgraded the country from AAA to AA+ back in 2011 amid a debt-limit crisis. Of the three main credit companies, Moody’s remains the only one with a top rating for the US.

In September, the US national debt hit an all-time high of $33 trillion. The previous record of $32 trillion had been set in June, when Washington avoided a technical default by passing a law that temporarily abolished the national debt ceiling until 2025.

“Interest rates have shifted materially and structurally higher,” William Foster, a senior credit officer at Moody’s, said in an interview with Bloomberg. 

“This is the new environment for rates. Our expectation is that these higher rates and deficits around 6% of GDP for the next several years, and possibly higher, means that debt affordability will continue to pressure the US.”

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT’s business section

 

The post US credit rating downgraded to ‘negative’ appeared first on Energy News Beat.