ENB #169 Anne Bradbury, CEO, American Exploration and Production Council stops by to cover COP28, LNG and even Bill Gates

Energy News Beat

Do you feel your energy bills are increasing, and no one cares? Well, Anne Bradbury, the CEO of the American Exploration and Production Council, stopped by, and we cover some of the most important energy topics in the US.

A little inside baseball: – Anne and I have over 99 connections on LinkedIn, and I have interviewed 26 of those joint connections. Quite a joint list of industry experts!!

Please reach out to Ann on her LinkedIn Here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anne-bradbury-015381147/

Thank you, Anne for stopping by, it was a blast – Stu

Anne served as Floor Director to two successive Speakers of the House of Representatives: House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH). In her capacity as Floor Director, Anne guided the House majority’s floor operations and advised the entire Republican leadership team on legislative strategy and policy development. Anne’s role as one of the Speaker’s most important advisers was expansive, from serving as the Speaker’s liaison to the House Rules Committee and Senate floor staff to advising the entire House Republican leadership team, House committees, its members and staff on the rules and procedures of the House of Representatives.

As one of the top legislative strategists and technicians in Congress, Anne was instrumental in the implementation and adoption of major rules packages and legislative initiatives ranging from reforms to national security and intelligence policy to health care, energy, transportation, trade, education, and energy policy initiatives introduced and passed by the House of Representatives.

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

01:16 – Talk about the North American Prospect Expo (NAPE) and upcoming events.

01:54 – The recent COP conference in Dubai

04:11 – Bill Gates’ changing statements on climate change and the carbon footprint of different energy sources.

06:48 – Discuss the significance of American LNG exports, especially to Europe, and its role in providing energy security.

09:13 – Are you seeing a lot more long-term contracts?

10:36 – Tell us what you do to try to help out our great American producers.

15:45 – Is there anything we can do for our great oil and gas producers in California?

17:19 – And who do you see is leading our country in energy for all type thing?

19:34 – How do you see yourself helping change the narrative or education?

23:30 – The great American American Export Europe Council, how can they help you?

25:05 – What are your thoughts for these upcoming ideas? Are anything your last words?

26:04 – Outro

 

 

Stuart Turley [00:00:03] Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Energy News Me podcast. My name’s Stu Turley. Have you ever wondered what’s going on in the oil and gas base in the United States? It’s kind of weird, but I’ll tell you what, one of the things that’s going on is talking to industry experts who actually understand what’s going on with what’s going on with the whole regulations through legislation, through regulations. I have the Anne Bradbury here. She’s the CEO at American Exploration and Production Council out of Washington, DC. Thank you so much for stopping by.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:00:43] Thanks do I’m super excited to be here. 

 

Stuart Turley [00:00:45] I’ll tell you what, I got to do a little inside baseball for our listeners. You and I have 99 connections on LinkedIn. You learn a lot of them. You’ve got a lot of good connections out there. A You’re a smart B, you’ve got a great organization out there fighting for the oil and gas industry. And I’ve interviewed 26 of our joint connections on LinkedIn. That’s bizarre. You must know.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:01:12] Bull. I talk to a lot of good people.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:01:16] Absolutely. So, hey, you and I are going to be at NAPE next year. This is really a cool thing. We’ve got four booth. How many names have you been through?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:01:27] Believe it or not, to do this is my first name.   

 

Stuart Turley [00:01:30] No way.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:01:32] Yeah, I know all about it. Exactly what it is. I’ve never been. I’m super pumped.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:01:36] Oh, well, I’ll tell you what. The podcast are way cool on the reach. And you just had David Blackmon, and you mentioned R.T. and a few others, and we kind of laughed, said this is going to the barge now set low for this podcast. But hey, tell us a little bit about what you thought about COP. There is some weird stuff coming out about co-op, right? Yeah.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:02:01] So common still. I think it goes till tomorrow technically. And right now the big news out of co-op is that there is a big push from some European countries and others to sign a joint statement saying that we are endeavoring to phase, quote unquote, phase out fossil fuels. And it seems like that they have now pushed back on that opaque is getting a lot of the credit for being the one to stop it. But I think, you know, from what I’m reading, it’s also some, you know, developing countries like African nations that are like, yes, slow down, like we need fossil fuels. And so the environmentalists and Al Gore are now saying, you know, throwing up their hands and saying, you know, this is this is the worst thing ever. But, you know, I think it’s actually a much better reflection on the reality of, you know, the state of our world today and the need for fossil fuels across the globe. And, you know, so so that’s that’s the big hullabaloo at NAPE excuse me at a at COP this week in Limits.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:03:20] And it’s pretty funny when you have it in Dubai. The UAE is kind of like oil. You have the Saudi Arabia shows up with Saudi Aramco. And you and I were chit chatting about this right before the show. Can you imagine their heads popping with all the green type folks? A pow, pow, pow, pow. It sounded like somebody doing it. What is it? The popcorn you squish. And everybody has the instinct to do that to bug your family. Oh, the popcorn. You know.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:03:53] It. It drives me nuts. But they get great joy out of it.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:03:57] So, yeah, I throw it down on the carpet and, you know, try this. Very satisfying. Oh, it is. You know, I feel good about myself. My wife is like you 12, so. Okay, so not only that, we have Bill Gates was there, and I keep telling people that the only time I met him, I drove him nuts. I mean, I have that effect on people. And, you know, I wish I drove him a little more nuts. Maybe he wouldn’t be the way he is now, but he said maybe. Did you see that interview where he said climate change is not going to kill us and it’s not a big deal? And then I saw him interviewed that cop and goes, Climate change is going to kill us.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:04:38] Yeah. Yeah.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:04:40] What’s up with that noise? And then, So you see all these knuckleheads, and it’s the elite. 1% are using more CO2 than the bottom 60%. They are 70,000 people.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:04:59] Yeah. 70,000 people. A cop, Probably a bunch who flew private jets to get there. And. And so, yeah, you know, it’s it’s, it’s interesting. And I and I think it gets back to where we started this discussion which is you’ve got to be realistic about global energy demand to ever have an honest conversation about climate because countries are not going to choose having lower emissions over the ability to provide affordable and reliable energy to a growing population, because energy is a hallmark of progress. And it’s we’re so lucky and Europe is so fortunate that we have this abundant, affordable, reliable sources of energy. But the vast majority of the world is not that fortunate. And so asking them to give that up in the name of climate change, it’s just not going to happen. Whether you think it should or shouldn’t, it is not going to happen. And I think the sooner folks can come to grips with that reality, the sooner we can have more realistic conversations.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:03] You know, when we sit back and kind of look at the great operators and you work with a lot of the big, big guys and what is it, 50% of our oil is produced by the private.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:06:17] Uh, so the stats I know is that over 80% of oil is produced by independence. Yep. And, and PC represents just over 50% of production.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:29] Oh, okay, great. Again, that’s. Oh, Ukrainian mass popping in my head there. But that’s a lot of oil.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:06:38] It’s a lot of oil. It’s like with a lot of it’s even more natural gas. Like it’s a lot.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:42] And we would be dead meat with that. Our great exporting of LNG facilities.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:06:48] That is 100% right. Even more so Europe would be dedicated to our incredible LNG exports. And you know what? I you know, I think the the story of American LNG saving Europe’s bacon over the last couple of years after the Russian invasion of of Ukraine, it’s an incredible story. It’s one we’re very proud of, couldn’t have been possible without the shale revolution. But I also want to point out that because of that, exports to Asia were the lowest that they had been in several years. So so some of that was just moving cargoes around, right, necessarily, like sort of adding to the aggregate amount of LNG in the in the world.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:07:31] And so let me ask this. Yeah, Russia was supplying a lot to Asia and then China was buying a lot of it and then reselling it. So Russia actually got around sanctions by selling it to China and then China was selling it back to the EU, talked about carbon emissions, having these things roll around the world, they’re not easily done.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:08:06] Right. Right. That’s that’s absolutely true. But it’s like the world needs more U.S. LNG, not just the ability to like move cargoes around. Right. Because, you know, Russian gas is clearly significantly dirtier and you want to sort of enable this Russian China partnership that’s emerging. And so, you know, super proud of the fact that we were able to provide so much U.S. LNG to Europe. But we need to be able to do that without moving cargoes away from other places in the world. Oh yeah, really important. And so we need more export capacity, we need more pipeline capacity for Pakistan.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:08:49] They had one of their LNG shipments stolen from somebody else. Our bid. Yeah. I was like, that’s not right.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:08:59] It’s not. And you know, it’s, you know, countries like that can’t afford to pay that premium when you know that those prices, by the way, to keep prices lower and more stable is to just put more energy in global marketplace.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:09:13] Are you seeing a lot more long term contracts? Boy, I am. I mean, it seems kind of weird that our long term contracts around the world, that’s cool. You see Cheniere and everybody else putting out long term contracts. And Sean Strawbridge just got his new company going.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:09:32] Oh, me?  

 

Stuart Turley [00:09:33] Okay, Yeah, he’s doing contracts around the world. So he’s. He’s gonna get.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:09:40] Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. For sure. Oh, that’s awesome. Yeah, that’s great. I mean, I think that’s a super important component of this business, and we need to continue to see more. And, you know, one of the things that I think would help is if DC policymakers stop talking about the fact we’re going to phase out fossil fuels. Right? Because I do think that that sort of counteracts this notion of, you know, can I make this a safe, long term 20 year investment, which, you know, I think we know it is.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:10:15] I don’t know how you do it.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:10:16] There’s this public there’s this other narrative out there that we’re you know, we’re.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:10:20] We’re.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:10:21] Going away, you know, within that time frame, which is, you know, just.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:10:24] For your organization, I feel I’d like to just say go ahead and put a memo out to your board and and give you a bigger raise for being in Washington, DC and then tell us what you do to try to help out our great American producers.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:10:41] Yeah. So still, you know, as you point out, like our main purpose, purpose of existence is to be an advocacy organization and to speak on behalf of the leading companies in Washington, to Congress, to regulators, to the White House, to educate on the importance of, you know, domestic production and to advocate on behalf of the industry. And, you know, it’s not always an easy job. But, you know, we think, you know, our mission starts with education and sort of making people understand what the impact of these policies will be. And and, you know, it goes all the way to advocacy. So we think about, you know, creative ways to to try to, you know, encourage people to really understand and put policies forward that support domestic production.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:11:33] So being a mom to your kids. Yeah. Or going to the Congress, which is you’re dealing with probably more adult behavior with your kids. Is that a fair statement?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:11:47] So I have two teenagers, you know, teenagers. So I actually think that’s still probably true. And they’ve they’ve been sort of indoctrinated for several years now in terms of, you know, just be asking talkative questions about, you know, when they come home and tell me what they learned at school that day. And so we can sort of turn that around and then they go back to to their classmates and start asking provocative questions as well, which is really fun. So so, yeah, I mean, I actually think it’s very similar. You know, it’s a lot of it’s a lot of really foundational education work on on basics.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:12:31] But, you know, and I get I’m sorry, I get excited and I think about 16 different questions for you there. But it’s about energy. It’s about elevating humanity out of poverty through low cost energy, natural gas, nuclear are critical. You can’t make a with all the teenagers and folks that are out there protesting oil and gas. Windmills don’t make.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:12:58] These right, right, right. What? RO Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And that’s really important to understand. And even, you know, issues around EV is right. I mean, you have to drive in TV for I think an average of 60,000 miles before it even breaks. Even when you look at the lifecycle analysis like a lot of miles and ad 20.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:13:21] I’ve got some numbers that are not adding up. So AD 20 you can you can say Stu Turley said oh thing no yeah just and so it’s up there because you have the resale you have insurance prices are going up and then you have the carbon footprint is getting worse because of supply chain. That number is not right. And it’s the same thing with wind farms. Wind farms are not sustainable from day one and then from day one, you know, without the tax subsidies. And then they are only sustainable with tax subsidies after up to eight years, after eight years, the maintenance is so bad that they’re all being walked away from. Why? Why, why are they not bidding on them anymore? Why now? Why did all these big boys lose all this money?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:14:19] Right. Right.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:21] How how expensive is your power in DC? Oh, I don’t.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:14:26] I don’t know. I should know that I know what my monthly bill is, but I don’t know what my. Okay, well, a unit power is still.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:33] The New York and California are two times as high as. Texas. In Texas, we have wind, solar, nuclear, coal. Well, that’s a natural gas. So let’s let’s have it all in Texas.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:14:48] And California has to import, I think, at least 30% of its power from other places because they’ve shut down production and generation within their state. Right. In the name of being green. So they’re just imported from other places.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:02] And you know what’s even worse? Buckle up, man. Are you ready for this?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:15:05] I’m ready.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:06] Okay. China has they’re putting in I believe it’s more than a million barrels capacity on their refined products. California has shut down their refined products and they’re arranging to import from China. Gasoline in. And they’re. And they think they can do that because they’re trying to get rid of gasoline and diesel.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:15:38] That does not shock me.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:41] The rule of law.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:15:44] Yeah. Yeah.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:45] Is there anything we can do for our great oil and gas producers in California? That seems to me to be a hopeless cause.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:15:54] You know, it’s interesting. You’re seeing some companies leave California because of the regulatory environment there. I mean, it’s it’s pretty brutal right now. And it’s, you know, I mean, you know, we have a ton of companies that operate in states with extremely high regulatory standards like New Mexico and Colorado.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:16:16] Right.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:16:16] At least in those states, it’s more of an effort to have very high standards without maybe driving industry out of the state right now. Intention is to drive companies out of the state.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:16:28] It seems like I’m okay with high standards because of the environment.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:16:32] Right. Right.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:16:34] And and our great ENP operators do a better job than anybody else on the planet.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:16:41] They do. And states are some of the best regulatory bodies, you know, in this country because, you know, they really they have the sort of institutional knowledge they’ve been the right for oil and gas for a long time. And they understand that, you know, what works in Pennsylvania might be different than what works in Texas, might be different than what works in North Dakota. Right. They’re very different operating regions. And so, you know, a one size fits all approach to a regulatory scheme doesn’t make sense.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:17:09] All right. Between us girls. Who’s your favorite either senator or Congress person to visit with about this? And who do you see is leading our country in a energy for all type thing? And I think I just threw on the spot.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:17:28] Yeah, it it’s hard to choose. I have. So there really are I mean Congress gets a bad.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:17:34] This is a really.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:17:38] Bad rap. That being said, there are a lot of great members of Congress and so a lot of good ones. So I’ll just off the top of my head, I’ll list a couple of my favorite ladies, Stephanie Bice from Oklahoma, Capito from West Virginia are really great energy leaders. So I’ll start there. But, you know, I think we’ve got a great like energy leadership sort of just, you know, really like if you go around, like a lot most of our producing states, you’ve got you’ve got really great, great leaders representing maybe not. Okay. There are some there are some exceptions to that, for sure. Okay.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:18:22] I answered that so greatly. I just interviewed Representative Congressman Zach, Man, he’s a who and I really, really enjoyed him. And then also Andy represented from Tennessee Bar, Andy Ogles.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:18:42] Oh, okay. Yeah.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:18:43] And he is a sharp cat. Yeah, I really enjoyed both of those. And we have about ten more lined up. Oh, good. So the Opry is in. If you are ever visiting with anybody, I would love to have a discussion with you and some of those other women, because I think that the battle is you guys need to tell us, how can we help get your story out?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:19:08] Yeah, that’s a great idea. That would be fun to do.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:19:11] And so that you don’t have to sit there and go, Hey, how do I get my story out? Hey, let’s leverage our our channels.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:19:18] Yeah. Yeah, absolutely.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:19:21] So what do you see? How do we get around? Not get around? Because I like the regulatory issues that are good. How do you see yourself in 2024? Because this is going to be a rough political year. How do you see yourself helping change the narrative or education? I don’t know how you do it again, I pull my hair out.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:19:44] Yeah, So this is a tough one. And I and I like how you framed the question because we try really hard at PC to be in favor of common sense regulations, right? So we’re not anti-regulation, right? We’re just pro common sense, effective, workable regulations. And that is a very difficult needle to thread for regulators. I will say, you know, we look at the most recent EPA regulation on methane that just came out, and you can see a lot of signs where the agency is trying to do the right thing. Directionally, I think there are some really good components of it, right? I think there are definitely some flaws in terms of workability, in terms of disincentivizing. Some of the technologies that our companies are really utilizing and employing, they’re going to be so critical. Enduring the sort of trajectory that we’re on in terms of continuing to drive down emissions. So it’s imperfect and we hope to continue to work with EPA to make it better or to reconsider some of those proposals. It does feel like some of the regulations kind of go downhill from there, right, That the you know, the methane tax we’re still waiting on. But that’s going to be, you know, a tough pill to swallow for a lot and something that will work we’re going to work really hard on because, you know, first of all, we think it’s pretty punitive against U.S. companies and, you know, should never have passed in the first place. On top of that, you layer the subpart W revisions, which is changing the underlying math, and it’s going to artificially inflate everyone’s reported emissions. And so this is that’s going to be a huge problem because it’s going to make it look like US production, you know, emit somewhere in the magnitude of like triple what it currently does. Not because we’re emitting more, but because they’re changing the underlying factors and inflating some and double counting. So. That to me is like sort of that sort of that the the regulatory issue that should be getting more attention than it is right now. So it’s only in the proposed rule phase. We haven’t seen a final rule yet, but that’s going to be a big area of focus for us. Well, next year.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:22:06] You know, getting hammered by the regulatory issues with scope on emissions. I can understand that. Scope two, Scope three with the one. Right. I mean.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:22:20] And it yeah, it’s the analogy I heard is it’s like punishing farmers because, you know, you know, there’s too much calories in this cookie year because people are eating like, you know, the king egg on the dessert menu. Right.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:22:38] I saw that same thing. And I it was a guy from the middle of he he was one of the oil leaders in the Middle East.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:22:45] He I remember where I saw it. But it.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:22:48] It’s a.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:22:48] Great analogy, right? Once we produce this product and it someone buys it and uses it for another purpose and then sold it down the road, we have no control over it, right?  

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:00] Oh, no.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:23:01] We don’t have the ability to control how the emissions are used. Where are they? So as long as there’s demand for our product, we’re going to keep making it. But to sort of punish us because then people are using it or to somehow use that to evaluate or score us is like, right. You know, it’s just kind of it’s just nonsensical.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:22] Oh, yeah. Like you have your work cut out for you. How can people help your council? You know, the great American American Export Europe Council, how can they help you? So you need help? I’m sorry, I do.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:23:41] We need all the help we can get. So if you go to our website, speak, dawg, there’s an area, there’s a link where you can sign up for our updates. And that provides information both on sort of updates out of Washington in terms of what’s happening here on the Hill, what’s happening and regulatory bodies to keep you updated, informed when it makes sense. It also says, you know write your congressmen on this issue. So we make it incredibly easy and then we send out is we’re getting in an election year. You know, we’ll also be sending out sort of don’t forget to register to vote and here’s how you can how you can vote, because just being engaged through this process is incredibly important. And individual voices, even though it might not seem impactful, collectively make a huge difference.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:24:29] And so this is this is a joke and don’t be offended. But is there any way you can start firing up a mail in ballot for anybody that likes energy? And maybe you and I can drive around and collect all those mail in ballots?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:24:43] I know it’s tempting. It’s tempting in.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:24:47] That for our podcast listeners, I think Paul in was blinded by my flesh colored bald head as the sun got in her eyes. And she actually thought that other joke was funny. So, you know, I’m sorry about that. And that again, Thank you. You got the last word coming around the corner. What are your thoughts for this upcoming ideas are anything your last words?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:25:12] Last words? You know, I would just say if you are an energy worker, like be incredibly proud of what you do because it is incredibly important. And I, for one, am very grateful. My team is very grateful. So I think we start from a place of gratitude. And then number two is get involved. And again, you know, you can go to our website. It’s an easy way to get involved. People vote both in primaries and. Make your voice heard. Any way you can think to do so.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:25:41] I love that. Vote early, vote often. But then that one guy that did say that got thrown in jail or they tried to put him in jail. Vote early. Vote early or vote when, you know, my grandparents have voted like six or seven times in the last last elections and they’ve been dead for all these years. I am getting that is a joke. Everybody I know, I guess. Thank you so much and for stopping by the podcast. I appreciate.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:26:07] You. Thanks to great to chat.  

 

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Elon Musk’s X loses court bid to block California content moderation law

Energy News Beat

Elon Musk’s X has lost a bid to block a California law that forces social media companies to publicly reveal how they carry out content moderation on their platforms.

X sued the state of California in September, arguing that the first-of-its-kind legislation violates the United States Constitution’s protections of freedom of speech.

Under the measures signed into law last year by California Governor Gavin Newsom, social media firms are required to submit twice-yearly reports on how they tackle hate speech, misinformation and other objectionable content.

US District Judge William Shubb on Thursday denied X’s motion to temporarily suspend the law, ruling that its disclosure obligations are “uncontroversial” and not “unjustified or unduly burdensome within the context of First Amendment law”.

X’s lawsuit had argued that the law “compels companies to engage in speech against their will”, “impermissibly interferes” with a firm’s editorial judgement and pressures companies to remove “constitutionally-protected speech”.

X, formerly Twitter, has seen an exodus of advertisers, including Apple, Disney, IBM and Lions Gate Entertainment, amid controversy over the levels of hate speech and misinformation on the platform and Musk’s own statements.

The social media platform is also under scrutiny by the European Union, which has opened a probe into the company over suspected breaches of the bloc’s Digital Services Act (DSA) related to content about Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel.

US District Judge William Shubb rules that legislation’s disclosure rules are not ‘unjustified or unduly burdensome’.

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EU states knowingly ‘de-industrializing’ – Gazprom

Energy News Beat

Manufacturing is doomed due to the first-ever artificial destruction of natural gas trade, CEO Aleksey Miller says

The EU is intentionally destroying demand for natural gas, Gazprom CEO Aleksey Miller stated at a company meeting to discuss the year’s preliminary results.

“We are well aware of the situation in Europe, where they have taken an unprecedented step,” the chief executive said. “There, for the first time in history demand for natural gas, a primary energy source, is being artificially destroyed.”

He insisted that the policy of eliminating one of the most environmentally friendly energy sources is forcing “some EU member states to de-industrialize.”

Global demand for gas, however, is expected to increase by 43% in the next 25 years, Miller noted, adding that the energy giant is ready, as it has been developing cooperation with nations that are interested in reliable energy supplies.

He pointed out that Gazprom has been working with Asia for a long time.

“The volume of gas supplies to China in 2023 will be over 22.5 billion cubic meters, exceeding the contractual obligations by 500 million cubic meters,” Miller stated, adding that Gazprom plans to deliver as much as 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas to East Asian nation.

Gazprom supplies natural gas under a long-term contract sealed with the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). The Power of Siberia pipeline is part of a $400 billion, 30-year agreement between Gazprom and the CNPC clinched in 2014. Russia’s gas exports to China are projected to reach 100 billion cubic meters annually, taking into account a transit pipeline through Mongolia.

Russian gas exports to the EU have dwindled due to Ukraine-related sanctions and the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines last year, previously Russia’s key gas route to the region. However, Gazprom has successfully redirected its energy trade towards Asia, with China emerging as its largest importer.

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Williams targets US LNG export market with $1.95 billion gas storage deal

Energy News Beat

US natural gas pipeline operator Williams is buying a portfolio of natural gas storage assets across Louisiana and Mississippi for $1.95 billion to serve growing demand driven by LNG exports and power generation.

Under the deal with a an affiliate of Hartree Partners, Williams will acquire six underground natural gas storage facilities with total capacity of 115 billion cubic feet (Bcf).

The deal also includes 230 miles of gas transmission pipeline and 30 pipeline interconnects to “attractive” markets, including LNG markets, and connections to Transco, the nation’s largest natural gas transmission pipeline, according to Williams.

The six natural gas storage facilities include four salt domes with combined capacity of 92 Bcf and two depleted reservoirs with combined capacity of 23 Bcf.

Moreover, fhe facilities have injection capacity of 5 Bcf/d and withdrawal capacity of 7.9 Bcf/d, among the highest of any natural gas storage platform in the US, Williams said.

Two of the facilities, Pine Prairie and Southern Pines, are directly connected with Transco and are “well positioned” for expansions.

Williams said the acquisition price “represents an approximate 10x estimated 2024 Ebitda multiple.”

The firm expects to close the transaction in January 2024, following satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

“This premier natural gas storage platform on the Gulf Coast fits squarely within our strategy to own and operate the best assets connected to the best markets to serve growing demand driven by LNG exports and power generation,” Williams president and CEO, Alan Armstrong, said.

He said these assets “better position Williams’ natural gas storage operations to serve Gulf Coast LNG demand and growing electrification loads from data centers along the Transco corridor.”

“Since 2010, US demand for natural gas has grown by 56 percent while gas storage capacity has only increased 12 percent,” Armstrong said, adding that the company expects the increasing demand for “high deliverability storage to drive significant earnings growth across these assets.”

Last year, US LNG firm Sempra Infrastructure, a unit of Sempra, entered into a heads of agreement with Williams for the offtake of LNG from two projects.

The deal contemplates negotiation and finalization of two 20-year long-term sale and purchase agreements for about three million tonnes per annum of LNG.

Sempra Infrastructure said the supplies would come from the Port Arthur LNG project in Jefferson County, Texas, and the Cameron LNG Phase 2 project under development in Hackberry, Louisiana.

The agreement also contemplates the negotiation of a separate natural gas sales agreement for about 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) to be delivered in the Gillis, Louisiana area, as feed gas supply for the LNG projects.

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India’s Petronet LNG moves forward with Gopalpur FSRU plans

Energy News Beat

India’s Petronet LNG is moving forward with its plans to install a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) in Gopalpur, Odisha.

The LNG importer said in a statement on Wednesday it has executed binding deals with Gopalpur Ports for its first LNG terminal on India’s east coast.

Petronet and Gopalpur Ports signed sub-concession agreement, sub-lease deed, and port service agreement for the first phase of the 4 mpta FSRU-based terminal, with provision for converting to a 5 mtpa land-based terminal at the port.

India’s largest LNG importer said the terminal would bring “augmentation in overall regasification capacity in the country thereby contributing towards gas-based economy.”

Petronet did not provide any additional information.

In November last year, the company approved the FSRU-based import facility and one month after that it signed a term sheet with Gopalpur Ports.

According to Petronet, the first phase of the project would cost about 23.06 billion rupees ($278 million).

Also, these costs include the construction of the jetty and the pipeline but not the FSRU charter.

The firm previously said that it expects to complete the Gopalpur project in three years.

Petronet is currently expanding its 17.5 mtpa Dahej LNG terminal with about 5 mtpa of new capacity and it expects to complete this expansion in 2025.

The terminal was operating at almost 100 percent capacity in October, according to Petronet.

The company also operates the 5 mtpa Kochi LNG terminal, but this facility currently operates at about 20 percent capacity due to lack of pipeline connection.

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Fifth of global oil trade used non-dollar currencies in 2023

Energy News Beat

Oil Price

A fifth of global oil trade this year was settled in currencies different from the U.S. dollar as countries such as Russia and China move away from the petrodollar.

This is according to JP Morgan’s head of global commodities strategy, Natasha Kaneva, who spoke to the Wall Street Journal and said sanctions have been a major motivator for Russia and Iran to start doing their oil business in non-dollar currencies.

“The U.S. dollar is getting some competition in commodities markets,” Kaneva said, just a day after news broke that Russia and Iran have agreed to completely stop using the U.S. dollar in bilateral trade.

Indeed, some analysts have argued that the barrage of sanctions that the U.S. leveled on Russia is causing other countries to consider ditching the dollar as a way of insulating themselves from the effect of potential sanctions.

“This is something other countries are increasingly concerned about,” William Jackson, chief emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics, told the WSJ.

“Some are seeking to reduce their risk of possible sanctions on the use of dollars in trade. China is trying to act as a geopolitical counterweight.”

Yet sanctioned oil producers are not the only ones eager to ditch the dollar. China has also been active in replacing dollars in international trade with its own currency, which it seeks to make more global.

Earlier this month Nikkei Asia reported that the Chinese yuan had become the fourth most popular currency in international settlements in November, overtaking the Japanese yen. The report explained the development with the more active trade between Russia and China.

A month earlier, in October, China also completed the first cross-border payment for oil in digital yuan. Before that, state-owned oil companies made several oil and gas purchases paying for them in the Chinese currency rather than dollars.

Per JP Morgan data, there were 12 major commodity contracts that were settled in currencies different from the greenback this year, the WSJ reported, adding that this compared with seven such deals in 2022 and two in the period between 2015 and 2021.

Among the 2023 deals were one between the UAE and India for crude oil deliveries to be paid for in rupees, and another—a currency swap line—between Saudi Arabia and China worth $7 billion.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Spot LNG shipping rates, European prices fall further this week

Energy News Beat

Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet continued their downward trend this week, while European and Asian prices also decreased compared to the previous week.

Last week, both the Spark30S Atlantic and the Spark25S Pacific dropped below $100,000 per day.

“LNG freight rates have fallen for the fourth consecutive week, with a 6 percent week-on-week decrease for Atlantic rates and a 5 percent w-o-w decrease for Pacific rates,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday.

Image: Spark

Afghan said that the Atlantic rate decreased by $6,000 to $90,500 per day, whilst the Pacific rate decreased by $4,000 to $72,500 per day.

This is the lowest Spark25S Pacific year-end rate for the last four years, according to Afghan.

Rates continue to decline despite delays at the Panama Canal, and constraints at the Suez Canal due to attacks in the Red Sea.

Kpler said last week that at least eight LNG vessels re-routed away from the Red Sea towards the Cape of Good Hope amid ongoing security risks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month also declined from the last week.

The NWE DES LNG for January delivery was assessed last week at $10.206/MMBtu and at a $0.810/MMBtu discount to the TTF.

“The SparkNWE DES LNG price for January delivery is assessed at $9.925/MMBtu and at a $0.850/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said on Friday.

Image: Spark

He said this is a $0.282/MMBtu decrease in DES LNG price, and the discount to the TTF widened by $0.04/MMBtu, when compared to last week’s January prices.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in a report this week that Europe’s delivered imports of LNG in December were at 10.36 million mt as of December 27, or around 94 percent of the November level, which was the highest since May.

The US is supplier of 53 percent of the total, with some 13 percent coming from Russia and 8 percent from Algeria. Qatar also contributed around 8 percent of the supply.

Platts said demand remains muted as inventories across Europe remain comfortable.

Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that gas storages in the EU were 86.98 percent full on December 28 and 93.94 percent in the UK.

According to Platts data, JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, also dropped from the last week.

JKM for February settled at $11.935/MMBtu on Thursday.

State-run Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) said in a report earlier this week that Asian spot LNG prices continued to decline due to low demand and ample supply.

This month, JOGMEC did not publish both the contract-based and the arrival-based monthly spot LNG price for November as there were less than two companies that imported spot LNG.

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U.S. shale growth could exceed forecasts in 2024

Energy News Beat

Oil Price

U.S. crude oil production has overwhelmingly exceeded earlier forecasts and has grown at a much faster pace this year, offsetting much of the OPEC+ efforts to push up prices by coordinated supply reductions.

U.S. production growth is expected to continue into the new year, thanks to further gains in efficiency and higher spending and production plans by the U.S. supermajors that have just announced megamerger deals.

Some analysts predict that the U.S. oil output increase will slacken in 2024.

But others, including industry officials, see the estimates of production growth by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) as too conservative for 2024, and believe that U.S. shale production could top projections again.

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Mortgage Rates Dropped a Lot but Clearly Not to the Magic Level. Buyers’ Strike Continues. Issue Is Price

Energy News Beat

A similar drop in mortgage rates a year ago to even lower rates didn’t turn up sales volume either – on the contrary.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The dream is, or was, that mortgage rates dropped enough in November and December to push potential home buyers out of their buyers’ strike and to sally forth and start bidding wars all over again, so that we could amuse ourselves with headlines touting the new craze, while millennials and GenZers are trampling all over each other to outbid each other and to drive up prices to make each other miserable, so that sellers could maximize their gains. The media just loves touting this kind of stuff.

And mortgage rates dropped a whole bunch, and new listings are now suddenly showing up in larger numbers than a year ago, but buyers not so much. Clearly, mortgage rates haven’t dropped to the magic level yet, folks are waiting for them to drop further, and the market remains frozen.

Pending home sales – a forward-looking indicator of sales of existing homes, based on contract signings – in November were unchanged from October, and both occupy the second-lowest historic low, after the historic low in April 2020, according to the national Association of Realtors today. So this is not exactly what people figured in their wildest dreams (data via YCharts):

The NAR defines a “pending sale” as a transaction where the contract was signed but it has not yet closed. At this point, the deal can still fall through for a variety of reasons. If all goes well, the sale usually closes “within one or two months of signing.”

The index value was set at 100 for contract signings in 2001. Today’s value of 71.6 is down 28.4% from the index average in 2001. Compared to the prior Novembers, the index value of contract signings plunged…

By 5% from the already collapsed levels of November 2022
By 40% from November 2021
By 43% from November 2020
By 34% from November 2019.

Applications for mortgages to purchase a home dipped in the latest week, after inching up a few weeks in a row, according to the latest weekly data released on December 20 by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

And these purchase mortgage applications remain at totally collapsed levels, down by 18% from the already collapsed levels in the same week in 2022, down by 48% from the same week in 2021, and down by 43% from the same week in 2019.

Mortgage rates have dropped a lot, but not nearly enough to hit that magic level that restarts the whole zoo all over again, apparently.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked down to 6.61% in the latest reporting week, from 6.67% in the prior week, according to Freddie Mac today. Today’s average is down by 118 basis points from the peak of 7.79% in the week at the end of October.

Ironically, there was a similar drop (101 basis points) a year ago, to even lower rates of just above 6%, and it didn’t turn up volume either – on the contrary.

The issue with the frozen market for existing homes isn’t the mortgage rate – it’s the price of the home that people want to buy. Prices have shot sky-high over the past few years, from already very high levels, and the solution is lower prices. A continued buyers’ strike goes a long way to making that happen. And in some markets, that’s already happening.

Homebuilders who have to sell their homes and cannot sit out this market have figured this out. They’re building smaller homes with fewer amenities to get prices down, and as their incentive to induce people to buy those smaller and cheaper homes, they’re also buying down mortgage rates which takes the place of other incentives they would normally offer.

And so sales of new houses have not collapsed to historic lows – unlike existing homes – but are at the muddling-through levels of the years before the pandemic. Homeowners who want to sell should keep an eye on the market for new houses because that’s where their competition is, and that competition is getting fairly aggressive to try to sell new homes.

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ECB Balance Sheet QT: -€1.94 Trillion from Peak, down to €6.9 Trillion. Shed 47% of Pandemic QE Assets

Energy News Beat

Quantitative tightening powers along in the euro area.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Under the ECB’s QT program, kicked off in October 2022, total assets have plunged by €1.94 trillion, or by 21.9%, to €6.90 trillion, the lowest since November 2020, according to the ECB’s weekly balance sheet released today. This includes the €88-billion drop in the latest reporting week.

In USD, the ECB has now shed roughly $2.14 trillion in assets at the current exchange rate. By comparison, the Fed has shed $1.23 trillion in assets.

During the pandemic, the ECB piled on €4.15 trillion in assets; it has now shed 47% of that pile.

The ECB engaged in QE via two categories, and both are getting unwound, but at a very different pace:

It offered loans under very favorable conditions to banks, and it was up to the banks to deploy this cash.
It purchased government bonds, corporate bonds, covered bonds, and asset-backed securities, thereby handing the financial markets this cash, under two programs: APP (asset purchase programme), starting in 2014; and PEPP (pandemic emergency purchase programme), starting in March 2020.

In October 2022, the ECB announced the first steps of QT. It made the loan terms unattractive, and it opened more windows for banks to pay back those loans, which caused the banks to pay back those loans in big waves, which removed liquidity via the banks.

In December 2022, the ECB announced the initial phase of its bond QT with a start date in March 2023. It has since then accelerated the pace of the bond-roll-off, and announced a further acceleration at its December meeting.

Loan QT: -€1.79 trillion

The ECB has always handled QE via waves of loans, starting with the Financial Crisis, then the Euro Debt Crisis, then the period of no-crisis, and finally the pandemic. The waves had names, at first: Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO), then Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO), and these waves were numbered. During the pandemic, the ECB’s lending operations were called TLTRO III.

These pandemic-era TLTRO III loans amounted to €1.6 trillion at the peak, on top of the still outstanding prior loans, to total €2.2 trillion at the peak between June 2021 and June 2022.

In the week of the current balance sheet through December 22, banks paid back €98 billion in loans. Since the peak, they paid back €1.79 trillion, with only €405 billion in loans still outstanding.

Bond QT: -€262 billion

The ECB had bought bonds under two programs: APP, starting in 2014; and PEPP, starting in March 2020.

APP bonds: The roll-off in 2023 was limited to the bonds in the APP portfolio, and for the first six months was capped. But in July, the cap was removed. Since then, APP bonds have been rolling off without replacement as they mature. So whatever matures and gets paid off, that’s the amount by which the APP portfolio declines. Current APP holdings: €3.02 trillion.

PEPP bonds have been kept steady since the end of QE. But at its December meeting, the ECB announced that its PEPP bonds will start to roll off in July 2024, capped at €7.5 billion a month. At the end of 2024, the cap will be removed, and whatever matures in the PEPP portfolio will then come off the balance sheet. Current PEPP holdings: €1.71 trillion.

Over the past four weeks, €14 billion in APP bonds rolled off (holiday periods are slow in terms of maturity dates, with the bond market shut down entirely before Christmas). For a feel for the pace of the roll-off: over the prior 4-week periods, respectively, €19 billion, €45 billion, and €30 billion rolled off.

Since the peak, €262 billion in bonds rolled off. APP bonds did all the lifting. PEPP bonds have remained steady. The entire bond portfolio is now down to €4.70 trillion, the lowest since December 2021:

QT for years to get a grip on inflation.

The December 2023 meeting has been typical since the October 2022 announcement of QT: Each step along the way, QT was accelerated, to what is now the most QT of any major central bank.

QT is a program that is expected to run for years on automatic pilot in the back ground. The ECB’s policy-rate decisions and the surrounding jabbering – same with the Fed’s policy-rate decisions and surrounding jabbering – get all the speculative attention. But QT runs without drama in the background, removing liquidity month after month from the financial system, and thereby removing some of the inflationary fuel.

The hope is that this ongoing QT will allow central banks to not lift rates as high as they would have before the arrival of huge balance sheets. In other words, the hope is that central banks can leverage QT to get a handle on inflation without having to jack up rates so high that they would break the economy.

The massive QE via loans and bond purchases, which pushed down long-term yields, and the negative interest rate policy, which pushed down short-term yields, caused asset prices to spike in Europe, including home prices in Germany. But QT and higher rates have now begun to reverse that process. Here are German home prices, which are now tanking after a huge spike, versus the ECB’s balance sheet.

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