Argentina announces that it will not join BRICS bloc

Energy News Beat

Argentina has announced that it will not join the BRICS bloc of developing economies, fulfilling a campaign promise by newly elected far-right President Javier Milei who has pledged to pursue closer ties with the West.

In a letter dated December 22 but released on Friday, Milei told the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa that the timing for Argentina’s membership in the bloc was not opportune.

Milei said in his letter that his approach to foreign affairs “differs in many aspects from that of the previous government. In this sense, some decisions made by the previous administration will be reviewed.”

Argentina’s new president, a self-described anarcho-libertarian who has pushed forward a series of radical economic reforms since taking office in December, has said that he will pursue a foreign policy that aligns with Western countries, moving away from the previous administration’s efforts to build ties with other developing countries.

Former centre-left President Alberto Fernandez had promoted Argentina’s inclusion in BRICS as a way to foster economic relations with the bloc, whose members account for about 25 percent of world GDP. Argentina had been set to join on January 1, 2024.

Reporting from the capital city of Buenos Aires, Al Jazeera correspondent Monica Yanakiew said that Milei has already issued sweeping changes during his three weeks in office.

“He has already made dramatic changes in all walks of life, from expediting divorce procedures to deregulating prices to eliminating subsidies, everything is changing here now,” she said.

During his campaign, Milei railed against countries ruled “by communism” such as China and neighbouring economic power Brazil and said he would pursue greater alignment with “free nations of the West” such as Israel and the US in his economic and foreign policy.

However, in his letter to the BRICS leaders, Milei said that Argentina would seek to “intensify bilateral ties” in order to increase “trade and investment flows” without joining the group.

Domestically, Milei is also facing substantial pushback from the country’s powerful organised labour groups as he embarks on a programme of economic “shock therapy” and deregulation as Argentina reels from sky-high inflation.

 The move is the latest shift in economic and foreign policy by newly elected hard-right President Javier Milei. 

     

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Oil prices to end year 10% lower as demand concerns snap winning streak

Energy News Beat

CNBC

Oil prices are set to end 2023 about 10% lower, the first annual decline in two years, after geopolitical concerns, production cuts and global measures to rein in inflation triggered wild fluctuations in prices.

Source: CNBC

Brent crude futures were up 44 cents, or 0.6%, at $77.59 a barrel on Friday, the last trading day of 2023, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading 27 cents, or 0.4% higher, at $72.04.

On Friday, oil prices stabilised after falling 3% the previous day as more shipping firms prepared to transit the Red Sea route. Major firms had stopped using Red Sea routes after Yemen’s Houthi militant group began targeting vessels.

Still, both benchmarks are on track to close at the lowest year-end levels since 2020, when the pandemic battered demand and sent prices nosediving.

Production cuts by the OPEC+ have proved insufficient to prop up prices, with the benchmarks declining nearly 20% from their highest level this year.

Oil’s weak year-end performance contrasts with global equities, which are on track to end 2023 higher.

The MSCI equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, is up about 20% from the beginning of the year, as investors ramp up bets on rapid-fire rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve next year.

In the currency market, the dollar was rooted on the back foot and headed for a 2% decline this year after two years of strong gains.

The expected interest rate cuts, which could reduce consumer borrowing costs in major consuming regions, and a weaker dollar, which makes oil less expensive for foreign purchasers, could boost demand in 2024, industry officials say.

A Reuters survey of 30 economists and analysts forecasts Brent crude to average $84.43 a barrel in 2024, compared with an average of around $80 a barrel this year and the highs of over $100 in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

 

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QatarEnergy to supply crude oil to Shell for five years in “first ever” contract agreement

Energy News Beat

World Oil

(WO) – QatarEnergy has announced a five-year crude oil supply agreement with Shell International Eastern Trading Company, Singapore (Shell).

Source: World Oil

The agreement stipulates the supply of up to 18 MMbbl per annum of Qatar Land and Qatar Marine crude oils to Shell starting January 2024.

QatarEnergy and Shell have a long-standing strategic partnership through several shared investments in the energy industry in Qatar and globally, including QatarEnergy LNG projects, the Pearl GTL Plant, and several other joint investments.

His Excellency Mr. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of QatarEnergy, said, “We are delighted to sign our first ever five-year crude sales agreement. This agreement further strengthens QatarEnergy’s relationship with Shell, which is not only a reliable crude oil off-taker, but also a major customer and a strategic partner of QatarEnergy. We look forward to building on our historic relationship and hope we achieve greater success with Shell.”

 

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Reuters claims OPEC facing significant market share loss

Energy News Beat

Oil Price

OPEC could potentially face further loss of market share in early 2024 following the recent departure of  Angola, weakening demand and rising output by non-OPEC producers, Reuters claims, based on its own calculations.

Source: Reuters

Reuters reports that OPEC’s production is set to slip below 27 million barrels per day (bpd) without Angola, good for less than 27% of the total global supply of 102 million bpd. The last time the cartel saw its market share fall to that level was at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic when global oil demand fell by nearly 20%.

Earlier in December, Angola officially announced its exit from OPEC over disagreements regarding its oil production quotas. Angola’s crude output clocked in at 1.15 million barrels per day in November, a sharp decline from 1.88 million barrels per day in 2017, one year after it joined OPEC thanks in large part to under-investments in its aging, deepwater oil fields.

OPEC has managed to maintain a market share in the 30-40% range, according to Reuters. However, record shale production by the United States has cut into that deeply. U.S. oil output hit an all-time high of 13.1 million barrels per day in the current year mainly due to efficiency and productivity gains by drillers in a bid to combat low oil prices.

Some analysts have forecast a slackening of U.S. oil output increase will slacken in the New Year, but many others view the estimates from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) as too conservative for 2024.

OPEC believes the market share loss might only be temporary. The group has predicted that the group’s global market share will come in at 40% in 2045 largely due to non-OPEC output declining from the early 2030s.

OPEC has forecast global oil demand will hit 116 million barrels a day (bpd) by 2045, 6 million bpd higher than expected in last year’s report, driven by growth demand by India, China, India, Africa and the Middle East.

India has been tipped to replace China as the main driver of global oil demand growth thanks mainly to a rapidly expanding population. Further, the country’s transition to renewable energy is expected to be much slower than China’s with the country recently backing coal-fired electricity generation.

 

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EU aspirant admits it could import more Russian gas

Energy News Beat

Gazprom may once again become the only gas supplier to Moldova if the latter can secure a better price from the Russian energy giant than it can on supplies from the EU, Moldovan Energy Minister Victor Parlicov said on Friday in an interview with Publika TV.

The minister also said that the territory controlled by Chisinau switched to imports of gas from the EU in 2022, after Gazprom slashed supplies to the country by about 30%. Up to 5.7 million cubic meters per day are sent to the breakaway self-governing region of Transnistria.

The Russian company attributed the reduction to the refusal of Ukrainian state energy company Naftogaz to provide gas delivery services through the Sokhranovka entry point. 

“A pragmatic decision will be made: either we will buy gas from Gazprom, because it is at a very competitive price, or we will find a cheaper alternative,” Parlikov said, adding that the purchases could be resumed as soon as in May.

He added that the daily volumes of 5.7 million cubic meters will be enough for generating electric power on both the left and right banks of the Dniester River. Moldova still purchases electricity generated in a Transnistrian power plant using Gazprom’s gas.

The territory on the left bank of the Dniester, called Transnistria, proclaimed independence from Moldova in the early 1990s, shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Around 1,100 Russian soldiers are stationed there as peacekeepers in order to monitor a 1992 ceasefire between Moldovan and local forces.

Moldova has been subject to a state of emergency that is renewed every 60 days since the launch of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. Since last December, Moldovagaz has been receiving the fuel from both the country’s state-run enterprise Energocom and Gazprom.

Earlier this year, Parlicov said that much of Moldova would no longer purchase Russian gas, adding that it had managed to procure gas from EU suppliers at a better price.

In December, Russian gas has been sold to Moldova for $831 per thousand cubic meter, Meanwhile, the same volume from the EU has cost the nation some $610.

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT’s business section

 

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Russia and Iran step up de-dollarization drive with pact to shun the greenback in bilateral trade, report says

Energy News Beat
Russia and Iran have reportedly agreed to avoid the dollar in bilateral trade and use their own currencies instead.
The move is seen as part of the de-dollarization trend among nations to shift away from using the greenback in trade and investment.
Russia and Iran, both facing US economic sanctions, have been stepping up their cooperation.

Russia and Iran have entered into an agreement to avoid using the dollar in bilateral trade, relying instead on their own currencies, a new report says.

The central bank governors of the two nations sealed the pact at a recent meeting, Iran’s state media reported.

Russian and Iranian banks and companies can now use non-SWIFT messaging platforms and bilateral brokerage links to facilitate transactions in the ruble and rial.

Both Russia and Iran have been working to shift away from the dollar, after the US leveraged the greenback’s global dominance to slap economic sanctions on the two countries in recent years.

The move is also part of a wider drive among nations to reduce their reliance on the dollar in international payments and investments.

Countries from China to Brazil have been pushing to increase the global usage of their own currencies, while the BRICS group of nations has been weighing the possibility of a shared tender. More countries have joined the trend this year — Indonesia recently set up a task force to widen the use of its currency, the rupiah.

Russia and Iran, both facing US economic sanctions, have been steeping up economic cooperation.

Earlier this week, the Eurasian Economic Union — made up of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan — signed a new trade deal with Iran, Reuters reported.

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Ellipsis U.S. Onshore acquires oil, gas assets in U.S. Permian, DJ, Salt basins

Energy News Beat

(WO) – Ellipsis U.S. Onshore Holdings LLC has acquired additional assets located in multiple basins onshore the U.S. Ellipsis acquired non-operated oil and gas assets with current production of more than 6,000 boed (2-stream) and significant operational upside associated with approximately 550 gross remaining locations. The assets are in the Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico, the Denver-Julesburg basin of Colorado, and the Texas-Louisiana Salt basin of Louisiana. Pro forma, Ellipsis anticipates 2024 production to average over 13,000 boed (2-stream) with more than 1,900 remaining gross locations in inventory.

Matt Gentry, Managing Director of Ellipsis U.S. Onshore

Managing Directors Matt Gentry and Adam Howard of Ellipsis commented, “Closing 2023 with our third significant acquisition marks a major milestone for our company. We are excited to advance our non-operated asset strategy in 2024 with a continued focus on both marketed and off-market opportunities.  We would encourage potential operating partners and those with non-operated assets to reach out to our team as we continue to deploy significant capital with Westlawn’s support and financial backing.”

Formed in 2023, Ellipsis is a Dallas-based private energy company focused on the acquisition and development of large, producing oil and gas assets in the United States. Ellipsis’ initial strategy will be focused on acquiring non-operated working interests, as well as mineral and royalty interests, via acquisitions exceeding $100 million throughout the major onshore U.S. basins.

Founded in 2021, Westlawn is a Houston-based private investment firm focused on long-term investment in the global oil and gas industry. Westlawn acquires operated and non-operated interests in producing, development and exploration assets, as well as technologies that improve production. Westlawn is focused on investments across the United States (Lower 48, Gulf of Mexico and Alaska), as well as in Canada, Latin America, the Caribbean and the Middle East.

Lead image source: Ellipsis U.S. Onshore Holdings

Source: World Oil

 

 

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More than 20 states challenging FHWA’s new emission rule

Energy News Beat

A coalition of state attorneys general has filed a lawsuit against the Biden administration’s emission performance measures for state Departments of Transportation and metropolitan planning organizations.

On Dec. 21, attorneys general for 21 states filed a federal lawsuit against the Federal Highway Administration, FHWA Administrator Shailen Bhatt, the U.S. Department of Transportation, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and President Joe Biden. The lawsuit is challenging a recently finalized rule that establishes performance measures that provide a national framework for state DOTs and metropolitan planning organizations to track transportation-related greenhouse gas emission.

The coalition of states argues that the federal agencies do not have the authority to issue the emission performance measures.

FHWA’s emission performance measures

The final rule adds a new greenhouse gas performance measure to the existing FHWA national performance measures to be used by states to assess performance of the National Highway System.

State DOTs and metropolitan planning organizations are required to establish declining targets for reducing CO2 emissions generated by vehicles. Targets for the first four-year period must be established and reported to FHWA no later than Feb. 1.

FHWA’s rule does not mandate how low targets must be. Rather, state DOTs and metropolitan planning organizations have the flexibility to set targets that are appropriate for their communities and that work for their respective climate change and other policy priorities, as long as the targets aim to reduce emissions over time. FHWA will assess whether state DOTs have made significant progress toward achieving their targets.

FHWA’s final rule on emission performance measures goes into effect on Jan. 8.

FHWA not authorized to regulate greenhouse gas emissions

In the complaint, the states point to a similar rule that was repealed.

In January 2017, FHWA issued a rule that required states to establish targets for greenhouse gas emissions. At the time, the Obama administration justified the rule by pointing to a federal law that requires the DOT secretary to establish and implement a national highway performance program. The purposes of that program include:

To provide support for the condition and performance of the National Highway System
To construct new facilities on the National Highway System
To increase the resiliency of the National Highway System to mitigate the cost of damages from sea level rise, extreme weather events, flooding, wildfires or other natural disasters
To ensure that investments of federal-aid funds in highway construction are directed to support progress toward the achievement of performance targets established

However, the Trump administration argued that nothing in the above law gives FHWA or the U.S. DOT the authority to mandate that states reduce certain emissions.

In May 2018, the agencies found that interpreting the term “performance” to include “environmental performance” was “a strained reading of the statutory language.” Consequently, the rule was repealed.

“President Biden is unconstitutionally ramming his radical climate agenda through administrative agencies that lack Congressional authority to implement such actions,” Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron said in a statement. “We will not stand by while this administration attempts to circumvent the legislative process.”

The lawsuit also claims that the emission performance measures will disproportionately affect states with more rural areas. According to the complaint, states with higher average annual miles per driver tend to be more rural. On average, rural residents drive 10 miles more per day than urban residents.

Cameron is joined in the lawsuit by the attorneys general of Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, South Carolina, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming. LL

Source: Landline

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ENB #170 Irina Slav, – How can one brilliant woman make energy hypocriscy, historic geopolitical disasters and impending doom funny?

Energy News Beat

I am absolutely having a blast interviewing global energy, political, and thought leaders on my podcast. But one of my favorite friends and thought leaders is Irina Slav. Her Substack (https://irinaslav.substack.com/) is a mandatory subscription for any human person. And on her substack, she reads the article, and I can get my “Irina” fix for the day. Her humor is something that we need to make it through the horrific anti-human decisions being made by world leaders.

We will only elevate humanity from poverty through low-cost, abundant, sustainable energy. It seems that discussions from the “Greener” side do not want to happen, making open dialogue with facts, economics, and physics tough.

Please sit back and enjoy our conversation, and subscribe to her Substack. Thanks, Irina, for your time. – Stu

 

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

01:09 – Discuss COP 28 and express skepticism about its outcomes.

04:09 – Directed at the large number of attendees and the lavishness of the COPW28 event.

05:51 – Delves into climate policies, including the push for electric vehicles (EVs) and challenges faced by the automotive industry.

10:19 – The limited adoption of electric vehicles in Bulgaria, mentioning occasional sightings of Tesla’s, attributing the slow uptake to the country’s robust secondhand car market and expressing nostalgic sentiments about classic cars.

13:42 – Insights are shared on Bulgaria’s energy landscape, including the dominance of nuclear and coal, potential plans for a second nuclear power plant, and the presence of solar energy.

16:33 – The importance of self-sufficiency and potential backlash against carbon taxes.

17:40 – How’s the grid stability in Bulgaria?

19:01 – What’s coming around the corner for Bulgaria?

22:26 – Irina promotes her Substack, mentioning a special promotion for subscribers with a 20% discount until the end of January.

23:51 – Outro

Stuart Turley [00:00:03] Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Energy News Meat podcast. My name’s Stu Turley. There’s been a lot of rumblings going on around this week about COP 28 and now we are able to get rid of all the fossil fuels and have low cost renewable energy. I am so proud of everybody. I’ve got somebody that has a little inside baseball on energy. I’ve got Irina Slav from Bulgaria, stopping by the podcast this morning. Good morning, Irene. How are you?

 

Irina Slav [00:00:35] Good morning, Stu. I’m great, thank you.

 

Stuart Turley [00:00:38] Okay. It is 7 a.m. in Dallas here. What time is it? Bulgaria?

 

Irina Slav [00:00:44] It’s 3 p.m..

 

Stuart Turley [00:00:46] 3 p.m.. You know, that’s not as bad. I interviewed Grace Stanky. She was in Dubai last week, and it was midnight here in the U.S. and it was 9 a.m. in Dubai. So, you know. Yeah.

 

Irina Slav [00:01:06] It’s a that crazy.

 

Stuart Turley [00:01:09] It is. And you kind of lose sleep on that. But I saw everybody, the cop president and everything else. And this cop was just kind of funny because Saudi Aramco showed up the that it’s being held in Dubai, you know, in the UAE, in the UAE, oil, they’ve got nuclear. 22 countries signed on to a nuclear deal and saying, hey, we want to really increase nuclear energy. And then all of the climate folks were saying we still have to have a deal. And as of yesterday, there was still no deal. Now, I this morning I’m seeing that. Oh, there’s a deal. Yeah, I’m like, you got to be kidding me. What kind of deal can they make when ESG investing is failing? BlackRock has now said that. I’m kind of teeing this discussion. A Bill Gates came out and said that climate change is not an issue. It’s not going to kill us. I saw him interviewed at COP. Oh, climate change is really bad. I guess one of the climate folks shot him in the back room there and said, Now, you shouldn’t say that. And then Larry Fink said, now from BlackRock, it’s okay to invest in ESG funds in the oil and gas. So this whole paradigm of climate, bad oil, bad, renewables, good, my head’s exploding. I have no idea which way to go.

 

Irina Slav [00:02:48] I know exactly how you feel. Actually, the nuclear deal is probably the one good thing that came out of this cop. If, of course, the countries that signed up for it, you know, stayed true to their word. Right. Which you never know. But it’s good to see nuclear getting the acknowledgment that it deserves. I mean, the IEA has been saying that we will need nuclear during the transition, but it hasn’t been amplified too much.

 

Stuart Turley [00:03:21] The IEA. Oh, my gosh. You know, if you always heard that, that one thing that says it takes a village to raise a kid or something like that, I think it takes a village to raise an idiot and call it a a. It’s just absolutely unbelievable the hypocrisy that they do. And it seems like whoever’s paying the bill, that is what their report will show.

 

Irina Slav [00:03:55] Well, and it seems there’s only one pair of the bill these days and a collective pair of the bill. But. You said hypocrisy. The whole cop 28 is blatant hypocrisy. 70,000 people attended these meetings. Do 72,000 people flew from overseas.

 

Stuart Turley [00:04:24] Right?

 

Irina Slav [00:04:26] Nearly because I guess a few thousand came from neighboring countries.

 

Stuart Turley [00:04:33] Right.

 

Irina Slav [00:04:34] And then they complained about the lavishness of the whole thing. They complained about the size of the venue and the absence of corridors where deals could be made. I am not joking. I read this in Bloomberg the other day. Attendants are complaining that it’s too big. The place where they’re meeting is too big and they can go into a corner and clinch a deal. Which has been done at other meetings, but they ended with a final deal that does not include the words phase out of rules. But what what really impressed me was that essentially the agreement is to start phasing down demands for oil and gas.

 

Stuart Turley [00:05:27] Huh?

 

Irina Slav [00:05:29] Yeah. This got my attention. Well, good. So they’re not going to produce this because they couldn’t, you know. Right. They made the stand and they won. So they’re going after consumers. That’s not good news for any of us.

 

Stuart Turley [00:05:46] Wow. Now, is that is an example of that, the forcing of the auto manufacturers to go to EVs, even though the consumers don’t want them or can’t afford them. So if they forced the E. So what we’re hearing is that they’re probably going to knuckle down, double down and triple down on EVs.

 

Irina Slav [00:06:12] Yeah, but they can’t because GM and Ford are already revising their manufacturing plans for this for next year. They’re all they’re both cutting production. Did you hear the news about this? Tesla is recalling 2 million cars.

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:28] There really isn’t a link.

 

Irina Slav [00:06:30] There recalling 2 million cars because of the, you know, these investigations of accidents with Teslas where the drivers blame the autopilot. So they’re recalling these 2 million cars to fix. They’re also pilot feature so drivers can’t misuse it. I know how it sounds.

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:54] I know.

 

Irina Slav [00:06:56] But you know what?

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:58] I think there’s more to that story that we’re not being told, Irene. And I think the security issue is there. Remote control with remote control of those cars is possible. Remote driving of those cars is possible. And we saw that with.

 

Irina Slav [00:07:20] The bulb that they should have thought about that.

 

Stuart Turley [00:07:25] Well, if I want a remote control car, I just call my wife and ask her, What do you want me to do? And she tells me exactly where that car was supposed.

 

Irina Slav [00:07:33] To be as well as remotely.

 

Stuart Turley [00:07:34] And she could draw. You know, it’s like I absolutely. I just absolutely say, Honey, what do you want? Now, if the rest of the men in the world would understand what needs to happen, I see this. There was a video. Irina, did you see this? Where? I think it was somewhere in California. All of the auto delivery, robo cars. Somebody had all the ones in the city all converge on one address. They all woke up? Yes.

 

Irina Slav [00:08:09] All the what they have.

 

Stuart Turley [00:08:12] They they just all went to one place and caused a traffic jam. Somebody hacked in to the zero driver cars and they all went to one location. I kid you not. I’ve got the video. It is a hoot.

 

Irina Slav [00:08:29] For them to prove that they are hackable and successfully hackable. Well done. That hacker, too, you know, highlighting the problem.

 

Stuart Turley [00:08:38] You bet. How would you like to be going to a wedding and having a hacker take your car and drive it off on the side of the road where I don’t trust anybody is if you have a government that says no driving for you, they’re going to I’ll send you your car, wakes up in the morning and goes, I’m going to go check myself in at the Department of Motor Vehicles. And you no longer have a car. I could see that happening.

 

Irina Slav [00:09:07] It’s a bleak scenario. Hope it doesn’t materialize. I really do.

 

Stuart Turley [00:09:13] I don’t. And so when we sit back and we think, okay, yay, comp, yay, we have. So I think. Do you think the markets will win? I mean, because there’s a big awakening of everybody saying, hey, wait a minute. I got to eat, I got to have electricity. I got to have natural gas.

 

Irina Slav [00:09:36] Exactly. How can people always win one way or another? It’s only a question of how much pain people will have to endure before market. You know, market forces snap back into place after governments give up on trying to manipulate every single aspect of, in this case, the energy commodity markets and the car markets. You can’t force people to buy these.

 

Stuart Turley [00:10:06] It’s not happening in the U.S. now. I mean, there’s all the Eves highlighting. In the used car lot. So in Bulgaria. How many EVs are driving around?

 

Irina Slav [00:10:19] I actually saw a Tesla in our village. No way. Yes. And I saw it several times, including once when I was returning from town. And the car was, you know, ahead of me. So apparently its owner lives in the village. We’re such a rich village that we have Tesla owners in it. But yeah, there’s the occasional Tesla. There’s some of those ridiculous Volkswagens. The little ones, you know, they look like boxes on wheels. There’s quite a few of these, but they’re not they’re not massively popular yet, and they probably won’t be massively popular any time soon, given that we are the one of the biggest secondhand car markets in Europe because Western Europe. Sells its cars, they sell them to us, which is great. I like all the cars, you know, they write. I’ve said it before, they don’t have. So much electronics stuck in them. So to make us safer and more reliable.

 

Stuart Turley [00:11:32] Yeah, I miss my 1943 Willys. I had a 43 Willys. It’s a World War two Jeep and I made a mistake and sold it years ago. And it’s I mean, I should have kept it because there was it was the first year they ever made four wheel drive vehicles. It was just as tough as you can imagine. And it was a great, great vehicle. But it was what’s called a four cylinder flathead and it was just tough getting parts for it. So, yeah, I just I really I regret that.

 

Irina Slav [00:12:13] Yeah, that that’s it is a treasure.

 

Stuart Turley [00:12:17] Oh. Especially because it was so.

 

Irina Slav [00:12:19] Rich by selling it now.

 

Stuart Turley [00:12:21] Oh. Well, see, the reason I would want it is because if the sun flares ever happened and an MP would knock out the power grid, that thing would have survived and I.

 

Irina Slav [00:12:34] Would have a problem. Yeah. Yeah.

 

Stuart Turley [00:12:37] So I don’t think a Tesla is going to survive a sunburst.

 

Irina Slav [00:12:42] I don’t think so either. Bad student in any other, you know.

 

Stuart Turley [00:12:47] So with this cop, everybody’s coming back at a cop. I’m going to interview some more folks that were there. And it’s I really cannot imagine being around 70,000 of my closest friends. I don’t like people. I just. I just just don’t like people. So. Now, I heard great things about Dubai. They have their new power plant that’s out. It’s a nuclear power plant. 25% of the UAE is now got nuclear.

 

Irina Slav [00:13:21] Well done.

 

Stuart Turley [00:13:22] Yeah. Hey. And it was on time, on budget. And I couldn’t be more happy for them because that is actually way cool. Yeah. Are you seeing a resurgence in the Europe about nuclear? It seems like people are.

 

Irina Slav [00:13:42] Poking about it in Bulgaria. They’re talking about finishing the second nuclear power plant. But I’m not holding my breath because it’s very political, because it was Rosatom that started building it. But then an anti Russian government came in and ordered suspension of the works. We can’t have the Russians build our second nuclear power plant. Let’s get an American company. But I think the American company wanted too much money or couldn’t be bothered to build it. I don’t remember what happened. And now it’s it has started the construction and is being frozen, which is.

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:22] Where.

 

Irina Slav [00:14:24] We are planning, you know.

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:27] That’s sad.

 

Irina Slav [00:14:28] Yeah.

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:29] And, um, you know, I. I do allow that you laughed at my Putin imitation before, and I do a lousy Putin imitation. But if they we, the U.S. Senate or the U.S. House just passed a bill to block your Russian uranium.

 

Irina Slav [00:14:52] And you’re going to get your uranium from.

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:56] 20% of our uranium comes from Russia.

 

Irina Slav [00:15:00] Yeah, I heard about that. And process. I mean, you can get uranium from Canada, I think, but you have to process it.

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:09] Right.

 

Irina Slav [00:15:10] So you’re building a supply chain to.

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:13] And those are being held up by permits. And and then President Biden shut down the new uranium mine opportunity and and won’t allow us we have some of the biggest uranium deposits in the world and he won’t allow us to mine it.

 

Irina Slav [00:15:36] Yeah well that’s that makes perfect sense. It’s very rational and logical. Great, great.

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:46] I graduate from Oklahoma State University, and I think I’m smarter than those guys.

 

Irina Slav [00:15:53] Well, you.

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:53] Are. Yeah, that’s a stretch.

 

Irina Slav [00:15:55] Well, he smiles within them and she’s well.

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:59] But you sit back and kind of go, well there’s a bunch of farmers up there, and farmers are actually pretty smart. So, yes.

 

Irina Slav [00:16:08] They are going to have to do. Well, yeah, if you think about it, they have to be smart, so the family will make it.

 

Stuart Turley [00:16:16] No, you starve. But where do we see in World War Two? The victory gardens kept the US, You know, everybody eating our vic, our garden home gardens. A big thing in Bulgaria.

 

Irina Slav [00:16:33] Oh, yeah. In villages, everybody has a home garden. Oh, man. Produce quite, quite a little bit of, uh, you know, whatever. For example, our neighbors have an orchard in their in their gardens, and they sell the apples and pears on. That’s a market in town. But yeah, and we’re trying to build a garden for us here by using considerable amounts of fertilizers because our soil is, is not really good enough. But we have big plans. Yeah. You know, I’m a big fan of self-sufficiency to whatever extent it is possible without too much pain. So if we have land and we can plant things in it and eat them, of course I’m going to do this along with my flowers and. Right. You know, pretty things.

 

Stuart Turley [00:17:27] Right. That that. Yes, I think that the more sustainable everybody can be is family on their own. How’s the state? How’s the grid stability in Bulgaria right now? Is it pretty stable?

 

Irina Slav [00:17:45] Yeah, it’s stable because most of our energy comes from nuclear and coal. Well, there’s quite a lot of solar in my part of the country. In this part of the country in the south. And some of it is specially installed to to sell into the grid. But it’s still a minuscule amount of the total power generation. So that’s okay that people with the solar rooftop installations, we’re planning to put some panels on our roads because we have know great exposure to the south. And when I think I mentioned this last time, when whatever government happens to be in power decides to deregulate the household electricity market, electricity prices will go sky high. So for us, it’s a kind of hedge, you know, because at least during the summer, we’ll have. Energy we generate ourselves. Yeah.

 

Stuart Turley [00:18:49] And it makes sense. I like solar and wind for small personal use. It just seems like it doesn’t scale very well.

 

Irina Slav [00:18:58] No, it doesn’t.

 

Stuart Turley [00:18:59] No, no. So, okay, what’s coming around the corner for Bulgaria? In the EU.

 

Irina Slav [00:19:08] No idea about Bulgaria. I mean. They’re just borrowing more money. And I don’t like this. They have big transition plans because they listen to everything that Brussels says. The last thing I read about the European Union is that they’re really determined to, you know, to hit us with carbon taxes. And that might be the last stupid move. I think the opposing parties are coming into power. And and there are European Parliament elections next year.

 

Stuart Turley [00:19:50] Right.

 

Irina Slav [00:19:50] And things may change.

 

Stuart Turley [00:19:54] I’ll tell you, I think that you just hit a home run.

 

Irina Slav [00:19:58] A very good it is.

 

Stuart Turley [00:20:00] You know, on that may be their last stupidity action that they can do. I think people there is a great awakening happening, and I really think that, uh, Ursula is really crossing the line.

 

Irina Slav [00:20:18] Just all lines she could find, she and her friends and the only one. I’m not singling her out. I mean, she’s the face of it, but she’s not alone.

 

Stuart Turley [00:20:27] Oh, no. She’s being propped up by a bunch of folks. But here’s the thing. People are done. And I think that you’re going to see more Brexit, I think. I think so.

 

Irina Slav [00:20:45] I hope so.

 

Stuart Turley [00:20:47] I think it’s done. But that’s just me. During our podcast, listeners here heard it second and heard it here second.

 

Irina Slav [00:20:58] One thing is for sure that the European Union will fall and disintegrate because I set myself about this running joke in Bulgaria that whenever Bulgaria is on your side, you’re going to lose. You’re on the losing side of history of whatever battle you’re fighting. We were with the Germans in the First World War. We were with the Germans in the Second World War, and look how they ended.

 

Stuart Turley [00:21:22] Right. And Germany’s failing again because of their energy policies.

 

Irina Slav [00:21:29] Yeah.

 

Stuart Turley [00:21:30] And I visited with George Macmillan a few times and the U.S. has not done a lot of good things around the world.

 

Irina Slav [00:21:42] And it’s great to hear an American say this.

 

Stuart Turley [00:21:46] I love my country. I don’t love my leaders.

 

Irina Slav [00:21:50] Same here.

 

Stuart Turley [00:21:51] And there are a lot of great Americans. It’s just. The leaders of worlds don’t necessarily do what the people want.

 

Irina Slav [00:22:02] So that’s the problem in Europe as well. Right now, they’re doing what they want and they are actually saying as much that they do not care about the interests of their voters, that trying to mask it. You know, they’re trying to convince us that they’re doing it for our own good. Well, no, they’re not. Now, as we all know, it’s obvious.

 

Stuart Turley [00:22:26] Well, your Substack is Iryna Slav at Substack dot com. And I love your substack. And I’m going to encourage everybody to follow support and make sure that they get all of your opinions. Because, Irina, I truly love your sense of humor.

 

Irina Slav [00:22:49] I’m actually running right now. I’m running a promotional campaign, a special with 20% of paid subscriptions until the end of January. It’s the first time I’m doing this.

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:03] Well, good. We’ll see how many we can drum up for you. So everybody, the 20% off, That’s pretty cool.

 

Irina Slav [00:23:13] If you want more doom and gloom than you already have in your life, please.

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:18] Doom and gloom with humor. You could save a lot of people money by if they subscribed to you rather than get married.

 

Irina Slav [00:23:27] They could sit around and get therapy.

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:33] But, you know, I just have to walk down the hall and I can get all the doom and gloom I want. And then I.

 

Irina Slav [00:23:41] Know you have a great wife.

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:42] She is a she is a saint, but you know, she is. I wouldn’t want to put up with me. Well, thank you, Irene, for stopping by that. I guess I do appreciate you. And we will see you next month.

 

Irina Slav [00:23:58] Next year. And I have great holidays.

 

The post ENB #170 Irina Slav, – How can one brilliant woman make energy hypocriscy, historic geopolitical disasters and impending doom funny? appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Transparent Waters: Why a Russian LNG “Shadow Fleet” is Improbable

Energy News Beat

The recent Bloomberg documentary “The Shadow Fleet Fueling Russia’s War” shed light on the armada of aging tankers circumventing sanctions to keep Russian oil flowing. With Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 achieving its first dropon the 21st of December, a recurring question lately among some of my connections has been: could Russia replicate the strategy used for its oil exports with Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)? The recent success of this tactic for crude might paint a concerning picture, but the reality of LNG shipping presents several major obstacles that make a similar “dark fleet” for LNG highly improbable.

Limited Export/Import Points = Enhanced Scrutiny

Russia’s LNG exports are concentrated in just four facilities, with the two first located in regions with significantly less maritime traffic compared to major oil tanker routes: Yamal LNG and the Arctic LNG 2 project in Arctic waters, Sakhalin-2 in the Far East, and Portovaya LNG near the Russia-Finland border. This geographically constrained export landscape further strengthens the case against a “shadow fleet” for several reasons. With LNG shipments originating from a limited number of points, monitoring and tracking vessel movements becomes significantly easier. Dedicated satellite surveillance can readily identify any irregular activities or deviations from expected routes. The relatively low traffic in these regions makes any unauthorized or unexplained LNG movements stand out even more. This heightened scrutiny significantly increases the risk of exposure and potential consequences for any party involved in a “shadow fleet” operation. Even if rogue operators would manage to overcome the logistical and technical hurdles of a “shadow fleet,” they would face another formidable obstacle: a near-nonexistent market for sanctioned LNG.

Going Dark: Not an Option

The vast majority of LNG vessel owners and operators are well-established, reputable companies with substantial investments in their brand image and long-term industry relationships. Engaging in a “shadow fleet” operation for sanctioned Russian LNG would jeopardize these hard-earned assets, exposing them to severe financial penalties, reputational damage, and potential blacklisting from key markets. Switching off the Automatic Identification System (AIS) on an LNG vessel would be exceptionally risky and impractical. The risks far outweigh any potential short-term gains, making participation in such a scheme highly unlikely for these established players. Even if some fringe actors were tempted, the overall LNG ecosystem would heavily disincentivize any widespread adoption of such a strategy. In the case of Yamal LNG, transportation relies exclusively on specialized Arc7 icebreakers capable of traversing the harsh Arctic waters, leased from shipping majors like Seapeak, MOL, and Dynagas. Novatek’s inability to complete the procurement and domestic construction of the 2nd generation Arc7 fleet for its flagship ALNG2 project is another reminder of the heavy impact of the sanctions.

Credit: Novatek

Limited Fleet, Diminished Flexibility

The global LNG carrier fleet, numbering close to 700 vessels (IGU, 2023), pales in comparison to the 5,700+ oil tankers operating today. This scarcity hinders a “rogue fleet” by limiting suitable vessel availability even for the aging ones, reducing adaptability due to specialized infrastructure needs, and intensifying scrutiny due to fewer vessels operating. The combination of a limited fleet and stringent terminal monitoring effectively stifles any potential for large-scale “shadow fleet” operations involving Russian LNG. Unlike oil tankers that have greater flexibility in routes and destinations, LNG carriers have specific compatibility requirements for cargo handling at the receiving terminal. This lack of adaptability makes discreet operations or diversion to clandestine markets significantly more challenging. Beyond the inherent traceability of LNG cargoes sent to given import terminals, the process of transshipment adds another layer of complexity. Transshipment involves transferring LNG between carriers at sea, a delicate operation requiring close coordination and expertise. Coordinating multiple LNG carriers for already sanctioned transshipment hubsin remote regions complicates the process. Any attempt to obfuscate transshipment activities for Russian LNG would be even more challenging.

A Shrinking Pool of Buyers

Unlike readily bought oil, the LNG continues to operate largely on long-term contracts (70%) and established relationships. Finding alternative buyers for “off-the-books” Russian LNG would be extremely difficult, and this difficulty would only intensify. Recent events illustrate this stark reality: key foreign shareholders have recently suspended their participation in Arctic LNG 2 due to sanctions. Even Chinese partners like CNPC and CNOOC, traditionally less susceptible to Western pressure, have seemingly become wary of association with sanctioned projects. With these crucial partners stepping back, long-term contracts will be disrupted, and alternative buyers remain elusive. LNG terminals across the globe would become increasingly unwilling to handle sanctioned volumes, fearing legal repercussions and reputational damage. Finding reliable and willing buyers for sanction-tainted cargoes will be an uphill battle. While the share of spot LNG sourced from Russia might technically increase, the overall outlook for future Russian projects remains bleak. Limited buyer interest, lower prices, and amplified logistical hurdles combined with the shrinking market offer no viable or lucrative pathway for a sustained “dark fleet” operation.

Arctic LNG 2 Sanctions Ripple

While the immediate impact of current sanctions on Russian LNG rests primarily on Arctic LNG 2, the uncertainty toward the next wave of projects like Murmansk LNG and Ust-Luga LNG is increasing. Beyond funding those massive facilities and the technological hurdles of developing domestic alternatives, the long-term commercial viability of these future endeavors hangs in a precarious balance. The specialized nature of LNG shipping creates a formidable obstacle for a “shadow fleet” to emerge. The combination of limited availability, reduced adaptability, and amplified risk factors make such an undertaking impractical and perilous. The ‘shadow fleet’ narrative might be dispelled, but the specter of future sanctions casts an ominous shadow over Russia’s aspirations for LNG dominance.

I invite the LNG shipping experts in my network to further explore the specific challenges mentioned above and to provide insights into the complexities of LNG transportation and the unlikelihood of a “shadow fleet” solution for Russian LNG exports. There are also broader implications to these developments, with potential ripple effects on the global energy market and the ongoing geopolitical landscape.

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