Most Americans feel poorer under Biden – FT

Energy News Beat

The majority of US voters are dissatisfied with President Joe Biden’s economic policies, the Financial Times reported on Monday, citing the latest monthly poll conducted by the Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research.

According to the findings, some 61% of respondents said they disapproved of Biden’s handling of the economy, while only 36% approved.

Nearly 70% claimed that Biden’s economic policies have either hurt the American economy or had no impact on it. Some 33% stressed that the president’s actions have “hurt the economy a lot.” Just 26% saw Biden’s policies as beneficial, while only 14% believe their finances have improved since the president took office.

Some 82% of respondents stated that they were especially worried about rising prices and the failure of the current administration to deal with the problem. US inflation has dropped from last year’s peak of 9.1%, but was still well above the 2% target at 3.7% year-on-year in September. Some 75% of those polled named inflation as the greatest threat to the US economy in the next six months.

Every group – Democrats, Republicans and independents – list rising prices as by far the biggest economic threat… and the biggest source of financial stress. That is bad news for Biden, and the more so considering how little he can do to reverse the perception of prices before election day,” Erik Gordon, a professor at Michigan’s Ross School, told the FT.


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Of the respondents, 52% said they had cut spending on food or other everyday necessities due to higher prices, while some 65% were forced to slash non-essential spending on things such as holidays or eating out.

The poll was conducted online between November 2 and 7 among 1,004 registered voters nationwide.

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT’s business section

 

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Advocates press Wisconsin regulators to reconsider natural gas plant need

Energy News Beat

When Jenny Van Sickle was elected to the Superior, Wisconsin, City Council in 2017, she joked that the first two calls she got were from her mother and representatives of the Nemadji Trail Energy Center, a proposed 625-megawatt combined-cycle gas-fired power plant planned for a site on the Nemadji River adjacent to her neighborhood, East End.

A social worker by training, she sought office to fight for things like mental health resources and accessible childcare. The nuances of a massive power plant proposal were beyond her expertise, and like other civic leaders, she was open to promises that it would provide jobs, a bridge to clean energy and grid reliability. 

Heavy industry was nothing new in the port town; an Enbridge Energy oil terminal is also located in the neighborhood. In 2019, the council unanimously passed a resolution supporting the project. 

But the more Van Sickle learned, the more she had doubts about the plant. She began asking more questions and felt like she was getting “misinformation and disinformation” from its developers — Dairyland Power Cooperative and Minnesota Power. 

She was especially concerned to learn that the proposal included the possibility of burning heavily polluting diesel if natural gas wasn’t available. 

“When you finally build up the courage to talk about it, it’s like a dam breaking,” she recounted, and other residents also began to share their fears.

Now, Van Sickle devotes much of her life to opposing the $700 million power plant, which received crucial approval from the state Public Service Commission in January 2020 and is scheduled to go online by 2027 — if it receives permits still needed from agencies including the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Construction could reportedly start next year.

Meanwhile, the Sierra Club and Clean Wisconsin are demanding the Public Service Commission reconsider and reopen the process around the crucial certificate of public convenience and necessity that was issued in January 2020.

That’s because two major factors have changed since the commission granted the certificate.

Wisconsin utilities have launched plans to install 480 MW of battery storage by 2025. That’s enough storage to work in tandem with renewables to provide reliable power, advocates argue. 

And the Inflation Reduction Act offers direct-pay incentives for renewables, replacing tax credits and making renewable development much more financially viable for nonprofit entities, including rural electric cooperatives like Dairyland, that don’t pay taxes. 

Clean Wisconsin and Sierra Club filed a lawsuit challenging the Public Service Commission’s certificate. A district court backed the commission, and they are now awaiting an appellate court decision.

Clean Wisconsin staff attorney Brett Korte noted that the Public Service Commission has the authority to reopen a case when it chooses. 

One of the three public service commissioners, Rebecca Valcq, argued against granting the certificate. Her dissent cited environmental impacts including erosion and the effect on wetlands, and she questioned the availability of water — to be drawn from an aquifer — to cool the plant. She also stated the plant was not needed for a reliable electric supply. 

Advocates are hopeful the commission would decide differently if the case is reopened.

“It’s just a shame it got approved when it did, before a lot of other opportunities were there,” Korte said. “Ultimately it’s still an opportunity for Dairyland to make a different decision. They haven’t started construction; they could still make the right call here. There are all kinds of advocates and partners who would love to talk to them about other opportunities.”

Dairyland describes the Nemadji Trail Energy Center, or NTEC, as key to its investment in renewables, to provide power when they aren’t available. 

Dairyland spokesperson Katie Thomson said Dairyland has submitted a letter of intent to apply for funding for 1,700 megawatts of wind and solar from the New ERA (Empowering Rural America) program created by the Inflation Reduction Act, which makes $9.7 billion available for rural electric cooperatives to transition to clean energy, administered by the USDA. 

Dairyland spokesperson Deb Mirasola said that the Nemadji plant would not be included in that application, but “as we have noted all along NTEC is critical to supporting the new renewable additions. The Nemadji Trail Energy Center is key to the clean energy transition, as a reliable, low-emissions natural gas power plant which will ramp up and down quickly to support renewable energy.”

Thomson said Dairyland will likely apply for funding for the Nemadji plant through the USDA’s Rural Utilities Service program.

Korte said seeking federal funding for natural gas is “ironic and sad especially now with the new federal funding for renewables. We don’t think it’s a good investment at all. They would be better off investing in renewable energy including battery storage if they feel like they need that kind of peaking capacity.” 

Van Sickle was the first person of color and Indigenous person elected to the Superior City Council. She is an Alaskan Native of Tlingit and Athabaskan descent. Meanwhile Superior sits amid ceded Indigenous lands on the edge of Lake Superior, which Ojibwe refer to as Gitchi-Gami. 

The gas plant would pose a threat to the natural ecology that tribal members hold sacred, including the St. Louis estuary, critics say. Advocates are demanding a more stringent environmental impact study than the developers have already submitted, as part of the process to secure federal funding. Almost 10,000 letters have been sent to the USDA asking the federal agency to deny loans for the gas plant in order to protect Gitchi-Gami.

Additionally, the plant would be very near a cemetery where almost 200 Ojibwe ancestors were buried, after they were disinterred from a traditional burial ground in 1918 for U.S. Steel to build ore docks, which were never actually constructed. 

The Nemadji application to the Public Service Commission acknowledges that it is within half a mile of three residential neighborhoods. Van Sickle described it as an environmental justice issue, with residents put at risk from the pollution and any accidents. Many residents still remember having to evacuate during a nearby refinery fire in 2018, and a benzene spill in 1992, at other local industrial facilities. 

“I know what it’s like for my neighbors to live amongst these giants,” she said.

Van Sickle, who is known as an ally of labor unions, said the 350 jobs promised at the plant do not compensate for all the risks and concerns.

“In the last few years we have worked so hard to invest in East End,” she said, including by raising money to revamp Carl Gullo Park named for a local World War II veteran and educator. “If a local official is not going to protect their most sacred spaces, who will? Sometimes progress is saying no.”

Along with the gas plant, the proposal calls for a new 345-kilovolt transmission line, relocation of an existing gas pipeline, and construction of a new gas pipeline to tap an existing gas supply network.

Van Sickle and other opponents argue that not only is the gas plant problematic in its own right, but it will also drive more investment in gas infrastructure and fracking, which has already had devastating environmental consequences for the larger Great Lakes region.

Dairyland says the plant could be retrofitted to run on up to 30% hydrogen, which is being promoted as an industrial energy source by the Department of Energy including with the establishment of hydrogen hubs nationwide.

The plant would be a merchant generator selling power on the open market in the MISO regional transmission organization territory.

“The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) has affirmed the need for NTEC to support additional renewable energy resources, while ensuring reliability is not compromised,” Mirasola said. “Dairyland is dedicated to providing sustainable, reliable and affordable power for our member cooperatives. NTEC will be a critical capacity resource to ensure reliable power for our members at a time when resource adequacy in the MISO region is declining significantly.”

Dairyland is made up of 24 member electric co-ops in southern Minnesota, western Wisconsin, northern Iowa, and northern Illinois, and also serves 17 municipal utilities. Rural cooperatives in theory provide their members more say in decisions than an investor-owned utility, but critics say that cooperative members that oppose more fossil fuel generation have not been heard.

Dairyland’s current power mix is about 52% natural gas and 48% coal, according to an analysis by the Sierra Club, which also found Dairyland could save members $55 million by retiring two coal plants and replacing them with renewables, without adding any new gas-fired generation. 

“There’s a lot of hesitancy around clean energy because of misinformation from fossil fuel industry and lobbyists,” said Cassie Steiner, Wisconsin Sierra Club senior campaign coordinator. “Definitely we see some cooperative members bringing up those pieces of misinformation or viewing clean energy as a very politicized dichotomy, rather than something that is accessible, affordable, reliable. The frustrations we’re hearing are the member cooperatives maybe aren’t listening to clean energy advocates who are their members.” 

One of those frustrated cooperative members is Dena Eakles, a writer and activist who runs organic Echo Valley Farm and a sustainability nonprofit in western Wisconsin. She is a member of Vernon Electric Cooperative, part of Dairyland, and she is upset that Vernon board members have not opposed the Nemadji Trail plan. 

“To me, any kind of fossil fuel energy is not clean energy,” she said. “People just see the end result, my lights go on, my stove runs — everything’s hunky dory. We need more people to understand and put pressure on their own board. We just need to help each other understand the peril of this time.”

 

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BRICS country imports record amount of Russian oil

Energy News Beat

Russia delivered a record amount of crude to Brazil in October, becoming the country’s third-largest supplier, RIA Novosti reported on Friday citing statistics.   

The Latin American country resumed crude imports from Russia in September after a two-year halt, the outlet said.   

Moscow exported 207,000 tons of crude worth $133 million in October, as it seeks to strengthen its position as a leading fuel exporter to the fellow BRICS member as part of broader efforts to build new markets.   

October shipments were the largest since at least 1997 both in terms of volume and value, as no earlier statistics are publicly available, RIA noted. Prior to this, Brazil’s record volume of Russian oil purchases came in May 2002, when it totaled 139,800 tons.    

Increased exports helped Russia become Brazil’s third-largest oil supplier last month, behind the US ($346 million) and neighboring Guyana ($187 million). The top five crude suppliers to the Latin American country also includes Algeria ($112 million) and Saudi Arabia ($98 million).  


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Along with Brazil, two other BRICS countries, India and China, have emerged as the most active buyers of Russian oil since the EU and G7 imposed an embargo accompanied by price caps on Russian oil and petroleum products.   

Analysts say that discounted Russian oil is a financial benefit for Brazil, as its government struggles to reduce the cost of transport fuels.

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT’s business section

 

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Europe Taps Record-High Natural Gas Storage As Temperatures Drop

Energy News Beat

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Traders have begun withdrawing natural gas from Europe’s record-high inventories this week as the weather turned colder and heating demand rose.

The gas storage sites in the EU were 99.57% full as of November 8, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. In the past few days, most EU countries have made consecutive small net withdrawals of gas from their storage, the data showed.

These were the first consecutive net withdrawals from Europe’s gas storage since April—the end of the previous winter heating season.  

Withdrawals may accelerate this weekend as some parts of Europe could see lower-than-normal temperatures, but next week many countries are expected to return to typical or above-normal temperatures.

LSEG analysts expect temperatures in France and Germany could be 2-5 degrees Celsius higher than normal at the beginning of next week, Reuters reported on Friday.

Continued weak demand and forecasts for higher temperatures next week sent the front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, plunging by 3.8% as of 11:25 a.m. GMT on Friday.

Despite the nearly full inventories, Europe is not out of the woods yet as a cold winter and potential supply disruptions could tip the balance into deficit and send prices soaring.

Volatility is expected to continue, also because of the threat to supply from the Eastern Mediterranean in case of a flare-up in the Hamas-Israel war.

“The (Dutch) TTF near curve will still likely carry a substantial amount of risk premium related to the typical weather risks and concerns over tension escalation in the Middle East,” Energy Aspects analysts said, as quoted by Reuters.

For now, Europe’s natural gas demand continues to be weak after last year’s energy crisis and most of the demand destruction will likely be permanent, according to France’s utility giant Engie.

But analysts and industry professionals told Bloomberg earlier this month that Europe’s gas demand could begin to rise this winter with higher electricity consumption in major markets and easing industrial demand destruction in the Eurozone.

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Shell, BP seek US and EU intervention in dispute with Venture Global LNG

Energy News Beat

Energy giants Shell and BP have asked the U.S.-EU Task Force on Energy Security to intervene in a dispute with Venture Global LNG over the launch of commercial operations at the latter’s Calcasieu Pass plant.

Calcasieu Pass produced its first LNG on January 19, 2022, moving from FID to LNG production in 29 months, and the first commissioning cargo left the facility on March 1.

Venture Global said in March this year it has shipped 128 commissioning cargoes from its Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana since the first quarter of last year, mostly to Europe.

The company also recently received approval from the US FERC to put in service liquefaction blocks 7-9 at its Calcasieu Pass plant.

All nine blocks of two liquefaction units each will now be in service at the facility.

However, the US firm has not yet declared commercial operations at the facility.

The plant has a capacity to produce 10 mtpa of LNG or 1.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).

Lon-term customers of the facility include Shell, BP, Edison, Repsol, Galp, and PGNiG.

Edison previously said it launched arbitration proceedings in May this year against Venture Global at the LCIA in London, for the failure of LNG deliveries from the Calcasieu Pass plant.

Besides Edison, BP and Shell also reportedly launched arbitration proceedings against Venture Global regarding the delay in LNG cargo deliveries.

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and US President, Joe Biden, established the US-EU Task Force on Energy Security in 2022 to boost imports of US LNG to EU and reduce reliance on Russian pipeline gas.

Shell Singapore wrote a letter to the Task Force on October 27 to “express our serious concerns regarding Venture Global’s ongoing misconduct and its impact on our ability to meet critical long-term energy supply needs in European markets,” the firm said.

“In particular, Venture Global’s refusal to place the facility into commercial operation, and begin delivering LNG to Shell and the facility’s other foundation customers pursuant to their long-term supply agreements, will have detrimental consequences on the urgent policy priorities of the US-EU Task Force on Energy Security,” Shell said in the letter signed by Steve Hill, executive VP, Shell Energy.

With long-term purchase commitments from Shell and the other foundation customers in hand, Venture Global was able to fundraise, permit, execute, and construct the project in record time, achieving first cargo in March 2022, more than 20 months ago, the company said.

“Despite Shell’s repeated requests, however, Venture Global has refused to honor the very commitments that undergirded its project in the first place, and declare the start of commercial operations at the facility,” it said.

“Even though publicly available export data confirms that the facility has for many months been reliably producing LNG at nameplate capacity, Venture Global denies that the facility is in commercial operation and refuses to sell any LNG to its foundation customers at contracted prices and volumes for onward delivery to their European buyers,” Shell said.

According to Shell, export data from the US Department of Energy and Kpler indicate that in the year between October 1 , 2022 and September 30, 2023, Venture Global exported 9.96 million of tonnes LNG from the Calcasieu Pass facility.

“Instead, Venture Global has opted to itself sell a steady and continuous flow of “commissioning” cargoes of LNG, to whatever global destinations offer the highest spot market prices, reaping undue revenues of approximately $18 billion, if not more,” Shell said.

“Indeed, the Calcasieu Pass facility’s so-called “commissioning” period defies industry standard,” the company said.

“As Eurogas recently reported in a letter to the European Commission, the nearly 600-day duration of the facility’s “commissioning” period, and the over 200 “commissioning” cargoes exported from the facility during that period, far outstrip the corresponding figures for six other comparable US LNG export facilities,” Shell said.

Shell said that, in all that time, Venture Global has “categorically refused any and all performance of its long-term supply agreements.”

“Moreover, Venture Global’s excuse for this refusal to perform does not withstand scrutiny,” the firm said.

“Although Venture Global has declared “force majeure” on grounds that the facility’s power island is in purported need of repair, regular exports from the facility have nonetheless continued unabated throughout the entire period of claimed “force majeure,” Shell said.

“Indeed, Venture Global even openly affirmed to its principal federal regulator that it will “continue to produce commissioning cargoes of LNG for export” notwithstanding the alleged issues underlying the “force majeure” claim,” Shell said.

“If Venture Global genuinely believed that technical issues prevented commercial operation at Calcasieu Pass, then it would have devoted the necessary resources to promptly rectify those issues so as to start delivering on its long-term contracts,” Shell said.

Instead, Venture Global has “apparently diverted its focus and resources to completing a separate, unrelated export project, and has demonstrated no similar sense of urgency or priority in getting Calcasieu Pass LNG cargoes, at contracted long-term prices and volumes, to gas-strapped European markets,” Shell said.

The company said that Venture Global’s conduct is “also inconsistent with industry and regulatory reports confirming that construction and commissioning work at the facility have long since been completed.”

“It was only this month, for example, that Venture Global sought permission to place the last three liquefaction blocks at the facility into service, even though it concedes that “commissioning operations” with respect to those blocks were completed in July 2022,” Shell said.

“Venture Global fails to explain why it waited over a year to place the remaining liquefaction blocks into service, all the while continuing to sell LNG wherever the spot market price is steepest, without regard to the European gas crisis or the shared policy prerogatives of the European Union and United States to address that crisis,” Shell said.

“In sum, the disparity between the long-term commitments that undergirded Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass project and Venture Global’s refusal to perform them cannot beoverstated,” Shell said.

“If the United States fails to meet its promise of serving as a reliable and affordable supplier of LNG to European buyers, then European states, industries, and ultimately consumerswill only continue to suffer the adverse impacts of constrained supply and price volatility,” Shell said.

“We urge the Task Force to call on Venture Global to cease its unjustifiable and damaging prolongation of “commissioning” at the Calcasieu Pass facility and immediately begin to perform its long-term supply agreement,” Shell concluded.

Edison also wrote a letter to the Task Force on October 26, while BP Gas Marketing sent a letter on October 30.

BP said in the letter signed by Carol Howle, executive VP, trading and shipping, that the company concurs with both Shell and Edison’s letters, which “underscore the ways in which Venture Global, by reneguing on its clear contractual commitments, is undermining the market’s confidence in the reliability of American LNG supply at a critical time for Europe.”

“As cited in Edison’s letter, 200 cargoes have been sold to the short-term market during the so-called “commissioning” period of the facility, far in excess of the norm. None of these cargoes have been delivered under the long-term contracts entered into by BP and other foundation customers,” it said.

“Venture Global’s conduct has shaken confidence in the trustworthiness of American LNG suppliers at a critical time,” BP said.

“It appears that Venture Global is attempting to avoid the regulatory framework that applies to similarly situated LNG terminals in the US exporting reliably at or near nameplate capacity by claiming that repairs scheduled to be completed while continuing in commercial operations should be classified as “commissioning,” BP said.

“BP is one of several industry participants that remains keenly interested in whether Venture Global will be permitted to continue full commercial operations, at or above nameplate capacity, under the standards applicable to facilities under construction and without beginning the time for the facility’s long-term export authorization,” the company said.

“We invite you to consider the harm that this situation is already having on the stability and growth of the LNG industry, both in the Atlantic and globally, and request your support in promoting confidence in the integrity of contractual relations and international norms of business,” BP said.

Venture Global said in a response to these letters dated November 10 that “these communications falsely claim that Venture Global is engaging in misconduct and refusing to honor its contractual commitments to its long-term customers in order to engage in profiteering.”

The firm said this request for interference in the administration of binding and confidential bilateral agreements between commercial entities is “outrageous”.

“It is nothing more than the latest in a series of unsuccessful attempts to bully an industry newcomer into waiving its contractual rights in order to increase their own profits beyond recent record-highs,” Venture Global said.

The letters imply that Venture Global is “undermining confidence” in the US LNG industry, it said.

“To the contrary, our company has been one of the few US (and global) exporters who have successfully financed, commercialized, and built our projects. In short, we have delivered where others have failed, which has been integral to supporting the important work of the Task Force to increase the supply of LNG flowing from the United States,” it said.

“As we have explained to both US and EU officials, our ability to produce LNG early while we incrementally commission the rest of our facility allowed the US to send 10 percent more LNG to Europe, a significant contribution to President Biden’s pledge to the EU,” the company said.

Calcasieu Pass accounts for about 14 bcm at its nameplate and this is nearly the entire 15 bcm that President Biden pledged, Venture Global said.

US Department of Energy data confirms that around 70 percent of all cargoes produced and exported by Venture Global have been delivered into Europe and sold to “multiple” counterparties, including three of its six long-term customers, it said.

“Conversely, while some in their letters disingenuously invoke European energy security as a justification for their complaints, their actions tell a different story,” Venture Global said.

“Motivated by the highest possible profit, the supermajors have traded several of the cargos they have received from Venture Global to places outside of Europe,” the firm said.

“For example: to date, Shell has purchased 7 commissioning cargoes from Venture Global and 3 of them were traded outside of Europe for higher profits. Similarly, BP has purchased 6 commissioning cargoes, and 2 have been traded to destinations outside of Europe,” Venture Global said.

“In addition, from publicly available data, Shell has an abysmal record of failed execution at its own LNG facilities in which they are a major shareholder or a construction leader. As a result, Shell has been and continues to be short by more than 300 cargos of LNG between 2020 and 2026,” according to Venture Global.

“This includes more than 200 cargos of future shorts (beyond November 2023) and presents Shell with a potentially unprecedented shortfall,” the firm said.

“Even though it has no contractual right to do so, we believe Shell is likely targeting Venture Global’s commissioning volumes principally because the replacement cost for its own catastrophic execution mistakes is so high. The reputational damages that Shell faces are extraordinary,” the company said.

“Venture Global is honoring its contractual obligations to its long-term customers in strict conformity with its long-term contracts. The contracts are very clear, which is why our critics are seeking to litigate this through our regulators and in the media,” the company said.

“Under those contracts, which are no different from long-term contracts utilized by other US LNG exporters, the obligations to deliver LNG to the long-term customers have not commenced due to the ongoing commissioning, repair, rectification and completion of the facility,” it said.

“These contractual provisions are unambiguous and unequivocal, and are well understood to industry participants, as well as the financial institutions and investors who lend to or participate in US LNG export projects,” the company said.

“Relying on the commissioning periods at other US LNG export terminals as their benchmark, the long-term customers conclude that the duration of the facility’s relatively longer commissioning period, and the resulting LNG production, means that Venture Global’s obligations to deliver LNG to them must have commenced,” it said.

“This is also untrue. Because it utilizes a first-of-its-kind, midscale modular design model, with eighteen liquefaction trains and independent power and pretreatment modules, Venture Global has been able to produce LNG from parts of the facility during construction, well before commissioning even commenced,” Venture Global said.

“Moreover, its actual commissioning period is demonstrably longer due to the number of components that reflect its modular design. Simply put, there are no other LNG projects in the world against which Venture Global’s commissioning or pre-commercial LNG production can be measured on a like-for-like basis,” it said.

“Even with extended commissioning and delays due to problems beyond our control, we are still producing LNG cargoes and will still take COD faster than most other LNG projects, including Shell Canada which took FID over 61 months ago,” it said.

“As is common with greenfield LNG projects, Venture Global’s facility is experiencing equipment failures and other wearing-in issues that must be resolved before it is sufficiently stable or reliable to meet the delivery obligations that it will owe to its long-term customers,” the company said.

Venture Global said it is “diligently working” toward the full completion of the facility, and the “anticipated schedule for doing so is within (or even ahead of) the typical timeframe for other LNG projects.”

“We have been fully transparent with our long-term customers, federal and state regulators and other stakeholders regarding the challenges faced thus far in reaching that important milestone,” it said.

“Finally, in addition to this letter, we are considering what further actions may be appropriate in light of this highly coordinated attack on our business and reputation by European energy industry heavyweights seeking to use their market power to modify their contracts and stifle competition in global LNG liquefaction,” the company said.

 

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Escobar: Another Snapshot Of Kiev’s Military Collapse: But It Ain’t Over Yet

Energy News Beat

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

The spectacular “success” of Kiev’s counter-offensive, which echoed throughout the geopolitical galaxy, has predictably engendered what everyone with a brain was expecting: a dogfight…

Enter the Zelensky-Zaluzhny Show – especially after the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) admitted on the record that the war has “reached a stalemate” – code for “we’re deeply in trouble”. He also referred to “positional defense” – code for “we’re gonna keep losing more and more territory.”

The dogfight comes complete with Mafioso overtones, as in 39-year-old Zaluzhny assistant Gennady Chistyakov “accidentally” detonating a grenade received as a gift, seriously injuring his daughter and duly blowing himself up.

This might be seen at face value as yet another wacky Pulp Fiction-style sketch involving the top dogs (with no Winston Wolf  to “solve problems”). But it does carry an ominous message to Zaluzhny: once again, Mafia-style, from now on he’d better beware of friends bearing gifts.

As for the “counter-offensive”, the file, for all practical purposes, seems to be closed. There won’t be another one – because there are no more weapons, assets or troops to carry it, except the odd Ukrainian elderly citizens and unsuspecting housewives chased by the “security services” as they exit the supermarket.

That brings us to yet another snapshot of what’s really happening on the frontlines.

The attached document, fully verified for authenticity, is a mid-October report to the Commander of the 10th Army Corps of the AFU.

The report states that the 116th separate mechanized brigade is “incapable of conducting offensive operations because of high losses and high numbers of soldiers that need psychological and medical assistance.”

The 116th brigade has been deeply involved in military operations in the Zaporozhye region for 5 months already. For 3 months it had been part of the 10th Army Corps, “Tavriya”.

The report details that the brigade’s losses are 94 soldiers dead; 1122 wounded; and 95 missing. That corresponds to 25% of the total number of personnel.

When it comes to the moral-psychological front, at least 153 soldiers are deemed in need of immediate psychological rehabilitation.

This brigade is a quite significant unit; what’s implied is that a moral-psychological debacle is now inbuilt as a System Error at the heart of the Ukrainian military. Consequences, short and middle term, will be dire.

All that is happening while the flow of foreign mercenaries to the AFU is drying up. No wonder: enter the Perfect Storm of brigades being thoroughly decimated; unspeakable levels of corruption; and better career opportunities in the rekindled Forever War in Israel/Palestine.

Civilians in Kharkov, for instance, confirm that foreign mercenaries speaking Polish or English are now “almost invisible”.

None of the above means that things from now on will be a cakewalk for Russia. For instance, the Russian Army still has not been able to destroy the Ukrainian bridgehead on the Dnieper in Kherson.

Further on down the road, it will be increasingly trickier to expel the Ukrainians from the eastern margin of the Dnieper.

Russian military media, at the highest level, does its best to sharply focus on serious instances of ineptitude by the Russian Army. That’s their civic duty – and involves creating a groundswell of public opinion, forcing the Russian Army to correct its mistakes and most of all refrain from underestimating the enemy.

After all, this is far from over – no matter the dogfight now raging in the corridors of power in Kiev.

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Daily Energy Standup Episode #250 – Iran-China Trade Surges, Legal Victories in Alaska, and the Growing Role of Fossil Fuels

Energy News Beat

Daily Standup Top Stories

Explainer: Iran’s expanding oil trade with top buyer China

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It’s no secret that fossil fuels are still going strong, as we discussed last month. But a new United Nations-backed report paints an alarming picture of how dramatically coal, oil and gas production is expected to grow in […]

Moody’s turns negative on US credit rating, draws Washington ire

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, Nov 10 (Reuters) – Moody’s on Friday lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to “negative” from “stable” citing large fiscal deficits and a decline in debt affordability, a move that drew […]

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro
02:26 – Explainer: Iran’s expanding oil trade with top buyer China
05:21 – Alaska Judge Sides With ConocoPhillips on New $7.5 Billion Oil Project
08:40 – TotalEnergies Nears Deal to Buy Texas Gas Power Plants
10:36 – Oil and gas ‘not the problem’ for climate, says UK’s net zero minister
12:53 – Coming Soon: More Oil, Gas and Coal
15:33 – Markets Update
18:25 – Outro

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:15] What is going on, everybody? Welcome to another edition of the Daily Energy News Beat Stand up here on this gorgeous Monday, November 30th, 2023. As always, I’m your humble correspondent, Michael Tanner, coming to you from an undisclosed location here in Dallas, Texas, joined by the executive producer of show, the purveyor of the show and the director, publisher of the world’s greatest website, Energy News Beat .com, Stuart Turley, my man, how are we doing? [00:00:38][23.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:00:38] Today is a beautiful day in a neighborhood up here in Bear country. Beautiful. [00:00:43][4.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:00:43] Absolutely. No, I’m glad you you made it up there. You’re staying safe away from any possible craziness, which is awesome. But you still managed to lineup an absolutely banger of a show. Got some titles here. Read off stuff. First one explainer. Iran is expanding oil trade with its top buyer, China in a move nobody really saw coming. It’s a joke. I think we figured China would go to these lengths to to buy as much crude oil as possible. So still dive into what’s going on with the new Iranian Chinese trade. Next up, Alaskan judge sides with ConocoPhillips on a new $7.5 billion oil project. TotalEnergies nears deal to Buy Texas gas power plants. Interesting. We made a lot of fun of them over the years. And it’s interesting and in my opinion, not a bad move to go ahead and move into the Texas gas markets. Dual coverage. Next up, oil and gas, quote, not the problem for climate change, says UK’s net zero minister. Interesting. Has he seen the light? We will cover all that. And finally coming soon, more oil, gas and coal. Interesting. This is actually out of the New York Times article, which is pretty funny to see those do dual cover and what a cover what one of our favorite newspapers is talking about. Bill Then toss it over to me. I’ll quickly cover what happened on Friday. When it comes to oil and gas finance, we did see rig counts come out, so I’ll quickly opine on that. Then we’ll let you guys get out on here and start your Monday. Before we do that, guys, again, as always, the news and analysis you brought to here is brought to you by the world’s greatest website www.energynewsbeat.com the best place for all your energy news you can check us out you can email the show dashboard.energynewsbeat.com Or [email protected] you can check out our news data platform dashboard.energynewsbeat.com. Appreciate everything that the team does they do a great job of making sure that the the show is up to speed with everything that we need to know in terms of the descriptions. You can check out the links below. Everything needs to be there. Links below. I’m out of breathe Stu. Where do you want to begin? [00:02:41][117.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:41] Hey, let’s start with our buddies over there in Iran. The title of that one is Iran’s Expanding Oil Trade with top buyer China. Michael, this one has got some stats in it that I didn’t know. And the existing sanctions, we know the Bidens have not you know, they’ve they’ve not enforce them. How much Iranian oil is China Buying is a huge thing. Tehran’s October output edged up to 3.17 million barrels per day. That’s net when Trump was in power, it was less than 500,000. Now that, you know, the Bidens have ignored it and there’s no saying no enforcement for you, 3.17 and China’s imports are 1.45 million barrels per day from Iran. That’s not you know, it’s not it’s a little bit less. Now, here’s how does Iranian oil enter China? Michael Stews Dark Fleet limps except for two cargoes. December 20, 21 and January 22. China’s customs has not recorded any direct imports from Iran since December 2020. Don’t turn, Turn. If anybody wanted to ask about how important Stu’s dark fleet is, there you go. [00:04:14][92.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:15] Well, no, in in, in. That is what again, you’ve been you’ve been on this for years now, so don’t hurt yourself. Patent yourself on the back. But it really comes down to measuring. The EIA and the IAEA aren’t looking at the dark fleet. So when they go and talk to you about demand forecast estimates. RO Something’s new data is dropping here that we need to cover. What they’re lacking. Lacking is an understanding of exactly what this article is talking about, except for two cargoes. China’s customs has not recorded direct imports from Iran since December 2020. And then there’s not. [00:04:47][32.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:48] Oh, yeah. So, you know, the the dark Fleet. And that’s why I think the energy news beat is such a great website and resources because if you look at all of the sources across the world, you can’t just go with one source. You can’t listen to the IEA or the EIA or even Biden or Republicans. You can’t listen. You know, you got to have multiple. [00:05:13][25.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:14] Let’s go to the Alaska one. This was a pretty good story, Michael. This is the Willow Project. Alaska judge sides with ConocoPhillips on the new 7.5 billion oil project. When you sit back, the ruling clan ruling by Alaska based U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason means that Conoco Phillips can continue developing the Willow Project. It should bring up Michael to 180,000 barrels per day, which is very much needed. One of the big issues was the Interior Department in the lawsuit. Now, I wanted to dress up. Can you imagine being an attorney and dressing up in the in front of the judge, as was? Who? The honeymooner. Jackie Gleason. If you showed up as Jackie Gleason in the courtroom, wouldn’t that be a hoot? Maybe. Maybe this is her, his granddaughter. You know, I don’t know. But anyway, GLEASON, let me read this part. Judge Gleason brushed apart those assertions Thursday, saying the Fish and Wildlife Service is decisions, including its conclusion that the Willow related work was unlikely to injure Non denying polar bears was reasoned and within the bounds of law. They have gone through study after study after study, and they have. And you know, Michael, the indigenous the beloved Eskimos and the tribes up there want this. It’s not like it’s the wind farms on the east Coast with the whales blowing up, killing all the whales that you like to do. This is very ecologically and friendly. [00:06:59][104.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:59] It doesn’t Alaska. Like kind of super silently. They don’t brag about this, but they have some form of universal basic income, not just not just Britain law, but it comes from the royalties that oil and gas production makes. They do. That’s what’s hilarious is this 180,000 barrels a day could be worth 80 another 500 bucks a month in the pockets of Alaska. So everybody in Alaska want this. Remember, the reason why they’re suing is because they thought it violated the conservation of this thought it violated the NEPA Act, which is the National Environmental Protection Act, which sort of governs all large project work in the mining business. You’re familiar with these huge 600 page NEPA reviews that you have to go through, you know, course of five years to do exactly what this is considered, any environmental externality. And I think what this judge did is say that this, you know, Judge Gleason, thank you very much, said the NEPA review that was done, clearly defined and and accounted for The many externalities that are going to come with this project include the Fish and Wildlife, as was sort of at the heart of this film, but also specifically talking about the climate related emissions. And I think it’s funny that he sort of brushed those brush those off to the side and said, well, that’s, you know, a blow to scope two and scope three emissions, which is really nice. [00:08:13][73.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:14] Oh, yeah. Hey, maybe Judge Gleason can transfer down and work on Ellen’s on the Starship thing we need named him some help down there. Hey, let’s go on to Total totalenergies deal. This is a really funny one to buy Texas gas power plants. Michael, how much power plants are they going to buy? This, to me is amazing. Total energy, as we say here in Texas, is nearing a deal to buy a fleet of natural gas powered plants. As it looks to expand that 2.3 gigawatt portfolio is enough to be a half a million homes on the hottest days, and it is much as a nuclear to nuclear reactors. That’s nuts. It’s pretty cool. Now, here’s here’s why this one is really important. Michael the gas plants a total were two years ago when they were making that big 90 degree turn to renewables. Only they were going to get rid of their oil and gas. The U.S., Chevron, Exxon and ConocoPhillips and everybody else that stayed their course and did both. And we see what Oxy is done now. Shell and BP and Total are going back to their roots. And this to me was significant, Michael. I mean, this is a huge implication for the European oil company. [00:09:52][98.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:52] Yeah, No, I mean, to think that Total is now jumping back into the U.S. gas businesses, it’s pretty hilarious considering their recent pivots with and recent losses, really when it comes to wind farms. So good to see them get back in there. And I mean, if the type of dispatchable energy that we need. So I’m all about it. I love this move. [00:10:09][16.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:10] Oh, it is. And when you go back in here, Texas. Also, Texas leads the world in in transitions and good transitions. They’ve also been acquiring gas fired plants in Belgium, France, Spain. About another 4 billion that they’re investing in. So anyway, I think they’re doing great. Hey, let’s go to the next one here. We’re going to fly over to the UK now. Oil and gas, not the problem for climate says the U.K. is net zero. Minister, this is pretty amazing. This falls on the grounds of the prime minister and the head cabana. What was it a month ago when he said he’s going to delay the transition to EVs and then now all these heads were going nuts. And then that started the whole that that to me was one of the I think, the catalyst. Everybody was realizing it. Now, this guy, Graham Stewart, I like his name. Graham Stewart said fossil fuel production was not driving climate change, but demand for fossil fuel was. Huh? Oil and gas are not the problem, but the carbon emission arising from them are. Now this guy is. I thought it was okay. It’s a play of words. If you really care about climate change, the last country you need to worry about is the U.K. We’re not the problem. It’s encouraging others. Here’s the thing. It’s the hypocrisy that this brings out, and that is everybody, all of the climate protesters that are out there, I would love to see them not film themselves using their iPhones that require oil and gas in order to produce those things. So what are they going to use? [00:12:00][110.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:02] Yeah, I mean, it’s it’s it would be pretty hard to protest oil and gas without using any products that come from oil and gas. So, you know, you basically stand out there naked and get a wave around a tree branch. [00:12:14][12.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:14] I don’t know. But it would be pretty funny. 80 countries call for the phase out at COP 27. Now they’re trying to make the same demand at COP 28 in a couple of weeks in Dubai. I can’t wait for the circus in a couple weeks at COP 28. I mean, you got a minister, you get everybody from Dubai coming in there, you got everybody from Saudi Arabia. And I know that Kerry is going to go in there and nobody’s going to want to talk to him because the US has lost so much global prestige. So anyway, let’s go to our last story here. I just coming more oil, gas and coal. United Nations backed report plants and an alarming picture of how dramatic coal, oil and gas production is expected to grow in the coming years. This one is absolutely got some numbers in it. They’re doubling down on the fossil fuel because, Michael, for the political leaders around the world, they’re realizing that the high cost of energy could cost them being voted out of office and voted off the island. So Brazil president has has vowed to prove once again that it’s possible to generate wealth without destroying the environment. Brazil used to be one of the most wealthy countries in the world until socialism hit. India is looking at double its production of coal they’re needing. I applaud the Indian leadership for trying to electrify everybody. Let’s get everybody in power first and and then do it in a clean way. If the US was smart. Michael, we’ve talked about this before. Why don’t we sell India clean coal burning technology to bring this in so that coal would not be as as harmful form. Canada is now on track to boost its oil output by 25% in the next 12 years. Norway has phased out most of the fossil fuel, but they export their hydro and everything else. Now they’re investing in natural gas. This was a great quote. It’s looking really dire, said Nicholas Hagel Berg, the U.N. environmental program global coordinator for climate change. We’re really on life support here. [00:14:47][152.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:49] Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey. We need. [00:14:52][3.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:53] You. Yeah. Get the mace out and clear. [00:14:56][2.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:57] I do find it funny. COP 28 Being in Dubai, there’s there’s got to be some sense of of of irony when it comes to that. [00:15:03][6.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:04] Oh, and it’s just going to be a hoot. An absolute, ever loving dude. You can’t buy this kind of entertainment. I’ve never. Seeing this energy transition hit a brick wall. I never thought I’d see it. And it’s about time. Sustainable means you can’t print money. And we’ve hit the end of the printing press. [00:15:24][19.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:24] Yeah, Now we really have. So you got anything else? [00:15:27][2.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:27] No. It was a fun day. [00:15:28][1.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:29] Now is a long weekend. Appreciate you. You staying up to speed with everything? Well, quickly come over and talk a little bit about what happened in the oil against finance side. Prices actually rose a little bit on Friday, mainly due to the fact that Iraq has sort of come in and said, hey, we’re going to try to attempt to cut more. We did cover the whole Dark Fleet aspect. Didn’t really matter what happens. But there. So I think that, you know, as again, Reuters is probably reaching for straws here. Again, I think we’re in multiple different camps here when it comes to what’s driving prices down. I think the fact that what we saw, the bump, the you know, every any time there’s some sort of international conflict, you’re going to see prices rise in the short term, if only due to the fact that there’s an unnecessary or unwillingness to to not really know where the oil and demand supply will go based on that outcome. I think now that the Strait of Hormuz is pretty much off the table, I don’t think anybody thinks that’s going that’s going anywhere unless I ran decides to really go nuclear. And I say that you’re not laughing because of that. That would be a nuclear move one way or the other. That’s really where you’ll probably see prices rise. But I think as prices have fallen, I think that 5 to $10 buffer that we had for the conflicts going on right now in the Middle East clearly has sort of slipped away. I think I think you’ve seen a little bit of a reversion back to the mean. You know, we did see breakouts do that dropped on Friday. And again, I found it interesting, you know, mainly from the fact that prices again default fell last week. But these rig count decisions don’t get made and these rig decisions don’t get made. Over a week, we lost two. Again, we’re down to 616 total, and that week ends November 10th. So they cut it off. Canada did see an increase in about three rigs internationally, saw about 22 rigs. But but here at home, rigs are getting cut in the era of and there’s a reason why mergers are happening instead of investment into drilling. It’s because the amount of Tier one acreage is shrinking. And so why would you drill up tier two acreage when you have to just go overpay or pay market for tier one? It’s again, the decision that ExxonMobil made when they went out and bought Pioneer. It wasn’t a decision, you know, it was numerous. It was a lot of different points that went into it. But that’s definitely one of the reasons, perhaps it’s why you’re continuing to see rigs drop, even though everybody talks about consolidation. Why now? Because then you just increase your likelihood of finding a Tier one rock that you’re able to make profitable. Because trust me, you know, 80, 85, even $90, that’s how you get your tier two, Tier three acreage profitable. So I think it’s again, it’s interesting, rigs continue to fall. As always, we’ll continue covering it. But it was pretty quiet this weekend still. We finished up our earnings report. I think really we’re in the quiet before the storm, before I think a host of deals happen. I think there’s a lot I was I was this weekend. I heard some pretty crazy stuff of some potential things that could happen between some big name players that we’ve actually been covering here. I think there’s a lot of potential deals in the works. As things become more substantiated, I’m sure they’ll leak out, but I think we’re in a little bit of a calm before the storm after earnings finished up. And I think you’ll see a host of deals happen, not right before Christmas. I think probably in that couple of weeks. Our are following the new year after everybody lines it up this holiday stew. But what do you think people should be worried about this week? Well. [00:18:27][178.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:28] I’m looking forward to our new series Coming around the Corner, dude, because of the M&A activity that’s out there and a lot of money coming in. We talked about Moody’s a little bit as well, preshow. And, you know, with the downgrade of the U.S. is because we printed so much money, But boy, investors are flat trying to figure out where to put their money. And I think I can’t wait to see you tear apart deal of the you know, it’s going to be a focus deal of the week or however we have this thing roll out. It’s going to be phenomenal. [00:19:03][34.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:04] It’s going to be fine. You can look for that segment to drop here and we’ll get one at least drop before the new year. But really, we’re going to hit it hard in 2024, guys. But with that, we going to let you get out of here, get back to work, start your day. Stay strong, guys. Hopefully you only have a few meetings that suck, be able to claw through them and you’ll get to the end of it. And then it’s going to be Tuesday and you’ll be fine. So Stuart Turley, I’m Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:19:04][0.0][1111.1]

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#ENB 150 Irina Slav – Why is the Energy Transition dead? And at what Cost?

Energy News Beat

Irina Slav, Energy Writer, is a great friend and inspiration to me on energy and writing. This podcast with Irina is no different; There is a significant movement in the global energy transition due to unsustainable renewable energy. The world cannot print money to go to war and support renewable energy.

Please listen and also follow Irina on her.substack at https://irinaslav.substack.com/

00:00 – Intro

02:03 – Irina Slav’s background and writing for Oil Price since 2016.

03:08 – Discussion of economic challenges in the European Union due to the energy crisis, inflation, and rising interest rates, leading to insolvencies among German firms.

05:05 – Highlighting the concept of energy poverty affecting citizens in the EU, making it harder for people to heat their homes due to rising energy costs.

06:34 – Mentioning that Germany is not on track to achieve its energy transition goals by 2030.

09:13 – Discussing the global energy transition and its impact on various industries and individuals.

10:52 – Exploring the challenges and failures associated with electric vehicle (EV) adoption, such as issues with public charging infrastructure and increasing insurance costs for EV owners.

14:00 – Mentioning the possibility of more populist leaders coming into power as a response to challenges related to energy transitions.

14:52 – Highlighting Irina’s Substack, where she shares her articles and insights on energy-related topics at [email protected].

15:42: Outro

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Dear Greta…

Energy News Beat

According to the Global Carbon Atlas, the world’s top polluters are China, India, and the U.S., which accounted for 52% of the world’s CO₂ in 2021.

Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu and Bruno Venditti use that data in the graphic below to explore which countries contribute the most to CO₂ emissions.

 

The largest polluters are also the biggest in terms of population, which means, in terms of CO₂ emissions per capita (metric tons), the U.S. is relatively high at 15.32, while China and India rank lower at 7.44 and 1.89, respectively.

Historically, the U.S. has been the largest carbon emitter, releasing 422 billion metric tons of CO₂ into the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution. This is equivalent to almost a quarter of all CO₂ produced from fossil fuels and industrial activities.

Given their massive populations and the fact that countries typically increase their emissions as they become more developed, China and India may continue to grow their shares even further.

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that India’s share of global emissions could rise to 10% by 2030.

All of these major contributors of carbon to the atmosphere have set goals to reduce emissions over the next decades.

While the U.S. targets net-zero emissions by 2050, China aims for carbon neutrality by 2060 and India recently set a target of 2070.

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Diamond industry takes radical steps to stem price decline – Bloomberg

Energy News Beat

Sales have plunged in 2023, following massive increases during the Covid-19 pandemic

The world’s biggest diamond companies have made a series of increasingly desperate moves in an effort to stop this year’s freefall in prices, Bloomberg reported on Saturday.

In 2023, prices for wholesale polished diamonds have dropped by around 20%, while uncut stones have seen a decline of around 35%.

South African diamond giant De Beers, at a sale in Botswana last month, reportedly nixed the usual obligations for buyers to make all of their contracted purchases at prices set by De Beers and removed any potential penalties. The company normally would have expected to make up to $500 million, but the total amount was just $80 million at the most recent trade.

De Beers’ major rival, Russian state-run miner Alrosa, halted all diamond sales in September for two months to prop up prices.

The industry was a major beneficiary of the Covid-19 pandemic, when sales of gemstones saw a massive increase, as shoppers stuck at home turned to jewelry and other luxury purchases. However, demand for diamonds began to decline as soon as economies opened up again, leaving buyers stuck with swelling inventories.

The drop in demand was also due to challenges in the industry’s most important markets – the US, which has been hit by inflation, and China, which has suffered from a real estate crisis that sent consumer confidence spiraling.

The drastic steps taken by industry majors have already paid off, with prices at some smaller tender sales and auctions increasing by up to 10% over the past week.

The EU previously announced plans to include a ban on imports of rough diamonds from Russia in its next round of sanctions. The issue is still being debated, with Belgium stalling efforts to restrict Russian diamonds, warning that Antwerp – through which 90% of the world’s precious stones pass – would risk losing business to Dubai if the ban passes.

The Russian Finance Ministry has warned that sanctions against one of the world’s major suppliers of diamonds would trigger “massive market distortions.”

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT’s business section

 

The post Diamond industry takes radical steps to stem price decline – Bloomberg appeared first on Energy News Beat.