Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough

Energy News Beat

The German boss of Britain’s biggest wind turbine maker has warned energy bills will have to keep rising to pay for the green transition as he attacked “fairytale” thinking about net zero.

Joe Kaeser, chairman of Siemens Energy, suggested higher energy bills were inevitable as turbine makers grapple with huge losses, forcing them to pass on costs to their customers.

The company is the owner of the UK’s biggest wind turbine manufacturing site, in Hull, and employs thousands of British workers.

Mr Kaeser said manufacturers had become locked in a harmful “rat race” to build ever-bigger turbines and claimed developers and governments were in denial about the costs this entailed.

He also warned that inflation is battering industry balance sheets and warned of separate growing problems with faults and breakdowns in the sector.

Mr Kaeser told The Telegraph: “Every transformation comes at a cost and every transformation is painful. And that’s something which the energy industry and the public sector – governments – don’t really want to hear.

“I believe that for a while [customers] need to accept higher pricing.

“And then there might be innovation – about the weight of the blades, other efficiency methods, technology – so the cost can then go down again.

“But the point is, if there is no profit pool in an industry, why should that industry innovate?”

His comments come after the UK Government bowed to industry pressure in November and increased the power prices offered in future renewable energy auctions, after a competition in the summer received no bids from offshore wind developers.

The earlier auction flop triggered serious doubts that the UK would be able to meet its target of 50 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr Kaeser criticised what he described as “a lot of big mouths but little action” that had gone on for years in the wind industry.

Governments and developers are failing to follow through on their own green transition promises quickly enough, he said, while many are reluctant to admit the full costs of their plans to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Wind turbine manufacturers have faced surging prices for materials such as concrete and steel as well as labour and specialist ships used to move large components such as blades and towers.

These rising costs were not factored into many contracts with wind farm developers, pushing turbine makers into the red as a result. Some, including Siemens Energy, have also had to set aside large sums to fix faulty equipment.

After crashing to a €4.6bn (£3.9bn) annual loss last year – blamed mainly on Siemens Gamesa, its offshore wind unit – bosses at the company had to go cap in hand to the German government for support. Gamesa announced 6,000 job cuts in November.

Inflation has also led to the cancellation of many offshore wind projects. 15 gigawatts’ worth of projects were cancelled or postponed last year in the UK and US alone, which would have provided enough electricity to power 12m homes.

As well as inflation, Mr Kaeser, who took over as chairman in 2021, argued that the problems are also down to foot-dragging by developers and governments.

“One of the shortcomings of the wind industry in the last five years is that there were a lot of announcements, a lot of plans,” he explained. “But they took four, five or six years sometimes to go from the order to execution.

“Now, if you have five years in between, you have a massive risk of inflation, which has hit us really, really hard. Not just Siemens Energy, but also others.

“We need to have a long-term energy plan, that this is what we’re going to do in the next three years, five years.”

Mr Kaeser, 66, also criticised a “bigger is better” mentality in the industry that has seen turbine heights more than double in the past 20 years. For example, General Electric’s Haliade-Xs stand at 853 feet each – two and a half times as tall as Big Ben – compared to a typical turbine height of around 300 feet at the turn of the century.

A dash to build bigger and bigger turbines has in some cases proved counterproductive, Mr Kaeser said, by forcing manufacturers to spend large sums of money upfront with too little time to recoup their investments.

“Industry was in quite a rat race. It was 3 gigawatts and then somebody would come out with 3.5 and then someone else 4 and on and on. They hadn’t even tested the old one yet but announced a new one.”

At the same time, flip-flopping on projects or delays caused by slow planning processes have left manufacturers without the certainty they need to invest in even bigger factories, let alone research and development that could bring costs down.

He said: “It’s up and down and up and down, and promise here and promise there and then, ‘Oh, well, renewables are too expensive’. Well, the cost of energy doesn’t go down on renewables if you don’t innovate.

“And if you’re making all the losses, why should you innovate? So you have a sort of a Catch 22, which you can only break if you have a long term energy agenda.”

Ultimately, money talks. If countries and developers are not prepared to put their money where their mouths are, they should rethink their plans for net zero altogether, he suggested.

“I think [the net zero targets] are realistic, but they come at a cost,” Mr Kaeser said. “You need to stick by the facts at some point, even though facts sometimes may not be liked.”

He added that energy supplies are governed by a triangle of “reliability, affordability and sustainability”, but “sustainability and affordability may conflict”.

“If you want to have cheap energy, you need to be gas fired. That’s the cheapest way, the most secure way if you calculate the whole thing, from the beginning to the end.

“I believe people need to become reasonable about the energy transition.

“The matter of renewables being volatile – if there is a windless night, it could get complicated if you don’t have storage. So you need to think: what is my energy agenda? How much do I want to have on renewables? How do we deal with the fact that sometimes availability and demand don’t match?

“So you say, okay, maybe we do baseload nuclear. Then maybe gas fired or even hydrogen-fired gas turbines for peaks [in demand].”

But he added: “Where does the hydrogen come from? That story of green hydrogen is another fairytale. If you believe in the next five years, in industry it’s a feasible option – it’s not.”

Mr Kaeser seemed faintly exasperated by the state of the industry.

“There’s just now, every week, every month, another debate about something. Do you bring nuclear back, or that or this? And this is what causes friction,” he sighed. “Uncertainty is great, but I have enough uncertainty already.”

Mr Kaeser is a Siemens lifer who joined the company after graduating in 1980. He was chief executive from 2013 to 2021, during which time Siemens Energy was spun-off as part of a split. Siemens retains a 25pc stake in the energy business, while the company’s pension fund owns a further 30pc.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The post Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough

Energy News Beat

The German boss of Britain’s biggest wind turbine maker has warned energy bills will have to keep rising to pay for the green transition as he attacked “fairytale” thinking about net zero.

Joe Kaeser, chairman of Siemens Energy, suggested higher energy bills were inevitable as turbine makers grapple with huge losses, forcing them to pass on costs to their customers.

The company is the owner of the UK’s biggest wind turbine manufacturing site, in Hull, and employs thousands of British workers.

Mr Kaeser said manufacturers had become locked in a harmful “rat race” to build ever-bigger turbines and claimed developers and governments were in denial about the costs this entailed.

He also warned that inflation is battering industry balance sheets and warned of separate growing problems with faults and breakdowns in the sector.

Mr Kaeser told The Telegraph: “Every transformation comes at a cost and every transformation is painful. And that’s something which the energy industry and the public sector – governments – don’t really want to hear.

“I believe that for a while [customers] need to accept higher pricing.

“And then there might be innovation – about the weight of the blades, other efficiency methods, technology – so the cost can then go down again.

“But the point is, if there is no profit pool in an industry, why should that industry innovate?”

His comments come after the UK Government bowed to industry pressure in November and increased the power prices offered in future renewable energy auctions, after a competition in the summer received no bids from offshore wind developers.

The earlier auction flop triggered serious doubts that the UK would be able to meet its target of 50 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr Kaeser criticised what he described as “a lot of big mouths but little action” that had gone on for years in the wind industry.

Governments and developers are failing to follow through on their own green transition promises quickly enough, he said, while many are reluctant to admit the full costs of their plans to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Wind turbine manufacturers have faced surging prices for materials such as concrete and steel as well as labour and specialist ships used to move large components such as blades and towers.

These rising costs were not factored into many contracts with wind farm developers, pushing turbine makers into the red as a result. Some, including Siemens Energy, have also had to set aside large sums to fix faulty equipment.

After crashing to a €4.6bn (£3.9bn) annual loss last year – blamed mainly on Siemens Gamesa, its offshore wind unit – bosses at the company had to go cap in hand to the German government for support. Gamesa announced 6,000 job cuts in November.

Inflation has also led to the cancellation of many offshore wind projects. 15 gigawatts’ worth of projects were cancelled or postponed last year in the UK and US alone, which would have provided enough electricity to power 12m homes.

As well as inflation, Mr Kaeser, who took over as chairman in 2021, argued that the problems are also down to foot-dragging by developers and governments.

“One of the shortcomings of the wind industry in the last five years is that there were a lot of announcements, a lot of plans,” he explained. “But they took four, five or six years sometimes to go from the order to execution.

“Now, if you have five years in between, you have a massive risk of inflation, which has hit us really, really hard. Not just Siemens Energy, but also others.

“We need to have a long-term energy plan, that this is what we’re going to do in the next three years, five years.”

Mr Kaeser, 66, also criticised a “bigger is better” mentality in the industry that has seen turbine heights more than double in the past 20 years. For example, General Electric’s Haliade-Xs stand at 853 feet each – two and a half times as tall as Big Ben – compared to a typical turbine height of around 300 feet at the turn of the century.

A dash to build bigger and bigger turbines has in some cases proved counterproductive, Mr Kaeser said, by forcing manufacturers to spend large sums of money upfront with too little time to recoup their investments.

“Industry was in quite a rat race. It was 3 gigawatts and then somebody would come out with 3.5 and then someone else 4 and on and on. They hadn’t even tested the old one yet but announced a new one.”

At the same time, flip-flopping on projects or delays caused by slow planning processes have left manufacturers without the certainty they need to invest in even bigger factories, let alone research and development that could bring costs down.

He said: “It’s up and down and up and down, and promise here and promise there and then, ‘Oh, well, renewables are too expensive’. Well, the cost of energy doesn’t go down on renewables if you don’t innovate.

“And if you’re making all the losses, why should you innovate? So you have a sort of a Catch 22, which you can only break if you have a long term energy agenda.”

Ultimately, money talks. If countries and developers are not prepared to put their money where their mouths are, they should rethink their plans for net zero altogether, he suggested.

“I think [the net zero targets] are realistic, but they come at a cost,” Mr Kaeser said. “You need to stick by the facts at some point, even though facts sometimes may not be liked.”

He added that energy supplies are governed by a triangle of “reliability, affordability and sustainability”, but “sustainability and affordability may conflict”.

“If you want to have cheap energy, you need to be gas fired. That’s the cheapest way, the most secure way if you calculate the whole thing, from the beginning to the end.

“I believe people need to become reasonable about the energy transition.

“The matter of renewables being volatile – if there is a windless night, it could get complicated if you don’t have storage. So you need to think: what is my energy agenda? How much do I want to have on renewables? How do we deal with the fact that sometimes availability and demand don’t match?

“So you say, okay, maybe we do baseload nuclear. Then maybe gas fired or even hydrogen-fired gas turbines for peaks [in demand].”

But he added: “Where does the hydrogen come from? That story of green hydrogen is another fairytale. If you believe in the next five years, in industry it’s a feasible option – it’s not.”

Mr Kaeser seemed faintly exasperated by the state of the industry.

“There’s just now, every week, every month, another debate about something. Do you bring nuclear back, or that or this? And this is what causes friction,” he sighed. “Uncertainty is great, but I have enough uncertainty already.”

Mr Kaeser is a Siemens lifer who joined the company after graduating in 1980. He was chief executive from 2013 to 2021, during which time Siemens Energy was spun-off as part of a split. Siemens retains a 25pc stake in the energy business, while the company’s pension fund owns a further 30pc.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The post Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough

Energy News Beat

The German boss of Britain’s biggest wind turbine maker has warned energy bills will have to keep rising to pay for the green transition as he attacked “fairytale” thinking about net zero.

Joe Kaeser, chairman of Siemens Energy, suggested higher energy bills were inevitable as turbine makers grapple with huge losses, forcing them to pass on costs to their customers.

The company is the owner of the UK’s biggest wind turbine manufacturing site, in Hull, and employs thousands of British workers.

Mr Kaeser said manufacturers had become locked in a harmful “rat race” to build ever-bigger turbines and claimed developers and governments were in denial about the costs this entailed.

He also warned that inflation is battering industry balance sheets and warned of separate growing problems with faults and breakdowns in the sector.

Mr Kaeser told The Telegraph: “Every transformation comes at a cost and every transformation is painful. And that’s something which the energy industry and the public sector – governments – don’t really want to hear.

“I believe that for a while [customers] need to accept higher pricing.

“And then there might be innovation – about the weight of the blades, other efficiency methods, technology – so the cost can then go down again.

“But the point is, if there is no profit pool in an industry, why should that industry innovate?”

His comments come after the UK Government bowed to industry pressure in November and increased the power prices offered in future renewable energy auctions, after a competition in the summer received no bids from offshore wind developers.

The earlier auction flop triggered serious doubts that the UK would be able to meet its target of 50 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr Kaeser criticised what he described as “a lot of big mouths but little action” that had gone on for years in the wind industry.

Governments and developers are failing to follow through on their own green transition promises quickly enough, he said, while many are reluctant to admit the full costs of their plans to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Wind turbine manufacturers have faced surging prices for materials such as concrete and steel as well as labour and specialist ships used to move large components such as blades and towers.

These rising costs were not factored into many contracts with wind farm developers, pushing turbine makers into the red as a result. Some, including Siemens Energy, have also had to set aside large sums to fix faulty equipment.

After crashing to a €4.6bn (£3.9bn) annual loss last year – blamed mainly on Siemens Gamesa, its offshore wind unit – bosses at the company had to go cap in hand to the German government for support. Gamesa announced 6,000 job cuts in November.

Inflation has also led to the cancellation of many offshore wind projects. 15 gigawatts’ worth of projects were cancelled or postponed last year in the UK and US alone, which would have provided enough electricity to power 12m homes.

As well as inflation, Mr Kaeser, who took over as chairman in 2021, argued that the problems are also down to foot-dragging by developers and governments.

“One of the shortcomings of the wind industry in the last five years is that there were a lot of announcements, a lot of plans,” he explained. “But they took four, five or six years sometimes to go from the order to execution.

“Now, if you have five years in between, you have a massive risk of inflation, which has hit us really, really hard. Not just Siemens Energy, but also others.

“We need to have a long-term energy plan, that this is what we’re going to do in the next three years, five years.”

Mr Kaeser, 66, also criticised a “bigger is better” mentality in the industry that has seen turbine heights more than double in the past 20 years. For example, General Electric’s Haliade-Xs stand at 853 feet each – two and a half times as tall as Big Ben – compared to a typical turbine height of around 300 feet at the turn of the century.

A dash to build bigger and bigger turbines has in some cases proved counterproductive, Mr Kaeser said, by forcing manufacturers to spend large sums of money upfront with too little time to recoup their investments.

“Industry was in quite a rat race. It was 3 gigawatts and then somebody would come out with 3.5 and then someone else 4 and on and on. They hadn’t even tested the old one yet but announced a new one.”

At the same time, flip-flopping on projects or delays caused by slow planning processes have left manufacturers without the certainty they need to invest in even bigger factories, let alone research and development that could bring costs down.

He said: “It’s up and down and up and down, and promise here and promise there and then, ‘Oh, well, renewables are too expensive’. Well, the cost of energy doesn’t go down on renewables if you don’t innovate.

“And if you’re making all the losses, why should you innovate? So you have a sort of a Catch 22, which you can only break if you have a long term energy agenda.”

Ultimately, money talks. If countries and developers are not prepared to put their money where their mouths are, they should rethink their plans for net zero altogether, he suggested.

“I think [the net zero targets] are realistic, but they come at a cost,” Mr Kaeser said. “You need to stick by the facts at some point, even though facts sometimes may not be liked.”

He added that energy supplies are governed by a triangle of “reliability, affordability and sustainability”, but “sustainability and affordability may conflict”.

“If you want to have cheap energy, you need to be gas fired. That’s the cheapest way, the most secure way if you calculate the whole thing, from the beginning to the end.

“I believe people need to become reasonable about the energy transition.

“The matter of renewables being volatile – if there is a windless night, it could get complicated if you don’t have storage. So you need to think: what is my energy agenda? How much do I want to have on renewables? How do we deal with the fact that sometimes availability and demand don’t match?

“So you say, okay, maybe we do baseload nuclear. Then maybe gas fired or even hydrogen-fired gas turbines for peaks [in demand].”

But he added: “Where does the hydrogen come from? That story of green hydrogen is another fairytale. If you believe in the next five years, in industry it’s a feasible option – it’s not.”

Mr Kaeser seemed faintly exasperated by the state of the industry.

“There’s just now, every week, every month, another debate about something. Do you bring nuclear back, or that or this? And this is what causes friction,” he sighed. “Uncertainty is great, but I have enough uncertainty already.”

Mr Kaeser is a Siemens lifer who joined the company after graduating in 1980. He was chief executive from 2013 to 2021, during which time Siemens Energy was spun-off as part of a split. Siemens retains a 25pc stake in the energy business, while the company’s pension fund owns a further 30pc.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The post Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough

Energy News Beat

The German boss of Britain’s biggest wind turbine maker has warned energy bills will have to keep rising to pay for the green transition as he attacked “fairytale” thinking about net zero.

Joe Kaeser, chairman of Siemens Energy, suggested higher energy bills were inevitable as turbine makers grapple with huge losses, forcing them to pass on costs to their customers.

The company is the owner of the UK’s biggest wind turbine manufacturing site, in Hull, and employs thousands of British workers.

Mr Kaeser said manufacturers had become locked in a harmful “rat race” to build ever-bigger turbines and claimed developers and governments were in denial about the costs this entailed.

He also warned that inflation is battering industry balance sheets and warned of separate growing problems with faults and breakdowns in the sector.

Mr Kaeser told The Telegraph: “Every transformation comes at a cost and every transformation is painful. And that’s something which the energy industry and the public sector – governments – don’t really want to hear.

“I believe that for a while [customers] need to accept higher pricing.

“And then there might be innovation – about the weight of the blades, other efficiency methods, technology – so the cost can then go down again.

“But the point is, if there is no profit pool in an industry, why should that industry innovate?”

His comments come after the UK Government bowed to industry pressure in November and increased the power prices offered in future renewable energy auctions, after a competition in the summer received no bids from offshore wind developers.

The earlier auction flop triggered serious doubts that the UK would be able to meet its target of 50 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr Kaeser criticised what he described as “a lot of big mouths but little action” that had gone on for years in the wind industry.

Governments and developers are failing to follow through on their own green transition promises quickly enough, he said, while many are reluctant to admit the full costs of their plans to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Wind turbine manufacturers have faced surging prices for materials such as concrete and steel as well as labour and specialist ships used to move large components such as blades and towers.

These rising costs were not factored into many contracts with wind farm developers, pushing turbine makers into the red as a result. Some, including Siemens Energy, have also had to set aside large sums to fix faulty equipment.

After crashing to a €4.6bn (£3.9bn) annual loss last year – blamed mainly on Siemens Gamesa, its offshore wind unit – bosses at the company had to go cap in hand to the German government for support. Gamesa announced 6,000 job cuts in November.

Inflation has also led to the cancellation of many offshore wind projects. 15 gigawatts’ worth of projects were cancelled or postponed last year in the UK and US alone, which would have provided enough electricity to power 12m homes.

As well as inflation, Mr Kaeser, who took over as chairman in 2021, argued that the problems are also down to foot-dragging by developers and governments.

“One of the shortcomings of the wind industry in the last five years is that there were a lot of announcements, a lot of plans,” he explained. “But they took four, five or six years sometimes to go from the order to execution.

“Now, if you have five years in between, you have a massive risk of inflation, which has hit us really, really hard. Not just Siemens Energy, but also others.

“We need to have a long-term energy plan, that this is what we’re going to do in the next three years, five years.”

Mr Kaeser, 66, also criticised a “bigger is better” mentality in the industry that has seen turbine heights more than double in the past 20 years. For example, General Electric’s Haliade-Xs stand at 853 feet each – two and a half times as tall as Big Ben – compared to a typical turbine height of around 300 feet at the turn of the century.

A dash to build bigger and bigger turbines has in some cases proved counterproductive, Mr Kaeser said, by forcing manufacturers to spend large sums of money upfront with too little time to recoup their investments.

“Industry was in quite a rat race. It was 3 gigawatts and then somebody would come out with 3.5 and then someone else 4 and on and on. They hadn’t even tested the old one yet but announced a new one.”

At the same time, flip-flopping on projects or delays caused by slow planning processes have left manufacturers without the certainty they need to invest in even bigger factories, let alone research and development that could bring costs down.

He said: “It’s up and down and up and down, and promise here and promise there and then, ‘Oh, well, renewables are too expensive’. Well, the cost of energy doesn’t go down on renewables if you don’t innovate.

“And if you’re making all the losses, why should you innovate? So you have a sort of a Catch 22, which you can only break if you have a long term energy agenda.”

Ultimately, money talks. If countries and developers are not prepared to put their money where their mouths are, they should rethink their plans for net zero altogether, he suggested.

“I think [the net zero targets] are realistic, but they come at a cost,” Mr Kaeser said. “You need to stick by the facts at some point, even though facts sometimes may not be liked.”

He added that energy supplies are governed by a triangle of “reliability, affordability and sustainability”, but “sustainability and affordability may conflict”.

“If you want to have cheap energy, you need to be gas fired. That’s the cheapest way, the most secure way if you calculate the whole thing, from the beginning to the end.

“I believe people need to become reasonable about the energy transition.

“The matter of renewables being volatile – if there is a windless night, it could get complicated if you don’t have storage. So you need to think: what is my energy agenda? How much do I want to have on renewables? How do we deal with the fact that sometimes availability and demand don’t match?

“So you say, okay, maybe we do baseload nuclear. Then maybe gas fired or even hydrogen-fired gas turbines for peaks [in demand].”

But he added: “Where does the hydrogen come from? That story of green hydrogen is another fairytale. If you believe in the next five years, in industry it’s a feasible option – it’s not.”

Mr Kaeser seemed faintly exasperated by the state of the industry.

“There’s just now, every week, every month, another debate about something. Do you bring nuclear back, or that or this? And this is what causes friction,” he sighed. “Uncertainty is great, but I have enough uncertainty already.”

Mr Kaeser is a Siemens lifer who joined the company after graduating in 1980. He was chief executive from 2013 to 2021, during which time Siemens Energy was spun-off as part of a split. Siemens retains a 25pc stake in the energy business, while the company’s pension fund owns a further 30pc.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The post Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough

Energy News Beat

The German boss of Britain’s biggest wind turbine maker has warned energy bills will have to keep rising to pay for the green transition as he attacked “fairytale” thinking about net zero.

Joe Kaeser, chairman of Siemens Energy, suggested higher energy bills were inevitable as turbine makers grapple with huge losses, forcing them to pass on costs to their customers.

The company is the owner of the UK’s biggest wind turbine manufacturing site, in Hull, and employs thousands of British workers.

Mr Kaeser said manufacturers had become locked in a harmful “rat race” to build ever-bigger turbines and claimed developers and governments were in denial about the costs this entailed.

He also warned that inflation is battering industry balance sheets and warned of separate growing problems with faults and breakdowns in the sector.

Mr Kaeser told The Telegraph: “Every transformation comes at a cost and every transformation is painful. And that’s something which the energy industry and the public sector – governments – don’t really want to hear.

“I believe that for a while [customers] need to accept higher pricing.

“And then there might be innovation – about the weight of the blades, other efficiency methods, technology – so the cost can then go down again.

“But the point is, if there is no profit pool in an industry, why should that industry innovate?”

His comments come after the UK Government bowed to industry pressure in November and increased the power prices offered in future renewable energy auctions, after a competition in the summer received no bids from offshore wind developers.

The earlier auction flop triggered serious doubts that the UK would be able to meet its target of 50 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr Kaeser criticised what he described as “a lot of big mouths but little action” that had gone on for years in the wind industry.

Governments and developers are failing to follow through on their own green transition promises quickly enough, he said, while many are reluctant to admit the full costs of their plans to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Wind turbine manufacturers have faced surging prices for materials such as concrete and steel as well as labour and specialist ships used to move large components such as blades and towers.

These rising costs were not factored into many contracts with wind farm developers, pushing turbine makers into the red as a result. Some, including Siemens Energy, have also had to set aside large sums to fix faulty equipment.

After crashing to a €4.6bn (£3.9bn) annual loss last year – blamed mainly on Siemens Gamesa, its offshore wind unit – bosses at the company had to go cap in hand to the German government for support. Gamesa announced 6,000 job cuts in November.

Inflation has also led to the cancellation of many offshore wind projects. 15 gigawatts’ worth of projects were cancelled or postponed last year in the UK and US alone, which would have provided enough electricity to power 12m homes.

As well as inflation, Mr Kaeser, who took over as chairman in 2021, argued that the problems are also down to foot-dragging by developers and governments.

“One of the shortcomings of the wind industry in the last five years is that there were a lot of announcements, a lot of plans,” he explained. “But they took four, five or six years sometimes to go from the order to execution.

“Now, if you have five years in between, you have a massive risk of inflation, which has hit us really, really hard. Not just Siemens Energy, but also others.

“We need to have a long-term energy plan, that this is what we’re going to do in the next three years, five years.”

Mr Kaeser, 66, also criticised a “bigger is better” mentality in the industry that has seen turbine heights more than double in the past 20 years. For example, General Electric’s Haliade-Xs stand at 853 feet each – two and a half times as tall as Big Ben – compared to a typical turbine height of around 300 feet at the turn of the century.

A dash to build bigger and bigger turbines has in some cases proved counterproductive, Mr Kaeser said, by forcing manufacturers to spend large sums of money upfront with too little time to recoup their investments.

“Industry was in quite a rat race. It was 3 gigawatts and then somebody would come out with 3.5 and then someone else 4 and on and on. They hadn’t even tested the old one yet but announced a new one.”

At the same time, flip-flopping on projects or delays caused by slow planning processes have left manufacturers without the certainty they need to invest in even bigger factories, let alone research and development that could bring costs down.

He said: “It’s up and down and up and down, and promise here and promise there and then, ‘Oh, well, renewables are too expensive’. Well, the cost of energy doesn’t go down on renewables if you don’t innovate.

“And if you’re making all the losses, why should you innovate? So you have a sort of a Catch 22, which you can only break if you have a long term energy agenda.”

Ultimately, money talks. If countries and developers are not prepared to put their money where their mouths are, they should rethink their plans for net zero altogether, he suggested.

“I think [the net zero targets] are realistic, but they come at a cost,” Mr Kaeser said. “You need to stick by the facts at some point, even though facts sometimes may not be liked.”

He added that energy supplies are governed by a triangle of “reliability, affordability and sustainability”, but “sustainability and affordability may conflict”.

“If you want to have cheap energy, you need to be gas fired. That’s the cheapest way, the most secure way if you calculate the whole thing, from the beginning to the end.

“I believe people need to become reasonable about the energy transition.

“The matter of renewables being volatile – if there is a windless night, it could get complicated if you don’t have storage. So you need to think: what is my energy agenda? How much do I want to have on renewables? How do we deal with the fact that sometimes availability and demand don’t match?

“So you say, okay, maybe we do baseload nuclear. Then maybe gas fired or even hydrogen-fired gas turbines for peaks [in demand].”

But he added: “Where does the hydrogen come from? That story of green hydrogen is another fairytale. If you believe in the next five years, in industry it’s a feasible option – it’s not.”

Mr Kaeser seemed faintly exasperated by the state of the industry.

“There’s just now, every week, every month, another debate about something. Do you bring nuclear back, or that or this? And this is what causes friction,” he sighed. “Uncertainty is great, but I have enough uncertainty already.”

Mr Kaeser is a Siemens lifer who joined the company after graduating in 1980. He was chief executive from 2013 to 2021, during which time Siemens Energy was spun-off as part of a split. Siemens retains a 25pc stake in the energy business, while the company’s pension fund owns a further 30pc.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The post Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough

Energy News Beat

The German boss of Britain’s biggest wind turbine maker has warned energy bills will have to keep rising to pay for the green transition as he attacked “fairytale” thinking about net zero.

Joe Kaeser, chairman of Siemens Energy, suggested higher energy bills were inevitable as turbine makers grapple with huge losses, forcing them to pass on costs to their customers.

The company is the owner of the UK’s biggest wind turbine manufacturing site, in Hull, and employs thousands of British workers.

Mr Kaeser said manufacturers had become locked in a harmful “rat race” to build ever-bigger turbines and claimed developers and governments were in denial about the costs this entailed.

He also warned that inflation is battering industry balance sheets and warned of separate growing problems with faults and breakdowns in the sector.

Mr Kaeser told The Telegraph: “Every transformation comes at a cost and every transformation is painful. And that’s something which the energy industry and the public sector – governments – don’t really want to hear.

“I believe that for a while [customers] need to accept higher pricing.

“And then there might be innovation – about the weight of the blades, other efficiency methods, technology – so the cost can then go down again.

“But the point is, if there is no profit pool in an industry, why should that industry innovate?”

His comments come after the UK Government bowed to industry pressure in November and increased the power prices offered in future renewable energy auctions, after a competition in the summer received no bids from offshore wind developers.

The earlier auction flop triggered serious doubts that the UK would be able to meet its target of 50 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr Kaeser criticised what he described as “a lot of big mouths but little action” that had gone on for years in the wind industry.

Governments and developers are failing to follow through on their own green transition promises quickly enough, he said, while many are reluctant to admit the full costs of their plans to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Wind turbine manufacturers have faced surging prices for materials such as concrete and steel as well as labour and specialist ships used to move large components such as blades and towers.

These rising costs were not factored into many contracts with wind farm developers, pushing turbine makers into the red as a result. Some, including Siemens Energy, have also had to set aside large sums to fix faulty equipment.

After crashing to a €4.6bn (£3.9bn) annual loss last year – blamed mainly on Siemens Gamesa, its offshore wind unit – bosses at the company had to go cap in hand to the German government for support. Gamesa announced 6,000 job cuts in November.

Inflation has also led to the cancellation of many offshore wind projects. 15 gigawatts’ worth of projects were cancelled or postponed last year in the UK and US alone, which would have provided enough electricity to power 12m homes.

As well as inflation, Mr Kaeser, who took over as chairman in 2021, argued that the problems are also down to foot-dragging by developers and governments.

“One of the shortcomings of the wind industry in the last five years is that there were a lot of announcements, a lot of plans,” he explained. “But they took four, five or six years sometimes to go from the order to execution.

“Now, if you have five years in between, you have a massive risk of inflation, which has hit us really, really hard. Not just Siemens Energy, but also others.

“We need to have a long-term energy plan, that this is what we’re going to do in the next three years, five years.”

Mr Kaeser, 66, also criticised a “bigger is better” mentality in the industry that has seen turbine heights more than double in the past 20 years. For example, General Electric’s Haliade-Xs stand at 853 feet each – two and a half times as tall as Big Ben – compared to a typical turbine height of around 300 feet at the turn of the century.

A dash to build bigger and bigger turbines has in some cases proved counterproductive, Mr Kaeser said, by forcing manufacturers to spend large sums of money upfront with too little time to recoup their investments.

“Industry was in quite a rat race. It was 3 gigawatts and then somebody would come out with 3.5 and then someone else 4 and on and on. They hadn’t even tested the old one yet but announced a new one.”

At the same time, flip-flopping on projects or delays caused by slow planning processes have left manufacturers without the certainty they need to invest in even bigger factories, let alone research and development that could bring costs down.

He said: “It’s up and down and up and down, and promise here and promise there and then, ‘Oh, well, renewables are too expensive’. Well, the cost of energy doesn’t go down on renewables if you don’t innovate.

“And if you’re making all the losses, why should you innovate? So you have a sort of a Catch 22, which you can only break if you have a long term energy agenda.”

Ultimately, money talks. If countries and developers are not prepared to put their money where their mouths are, they should rethink their plans for net zero altogether, he suggested.

“I think [the net zero targets] are realistic, but they come at a cost,” Mr Kaeser said. “You need to stick by the facts at some point, even though facts sometimes may not be liked.”

He added that energy supplies are governed by a triangle of “reliability, affordability and sustainability”, but “sustainability and affordability may conflict”.

“If you want to have cheap energy, you need to be gas fired. That’s the cheapest way, the most secure way if you calculate the whole thing, from the beginning to the end.

“I believe people need to become reasonable about the energy transition.

“The matter of renewables being volatile – if there is a windless night, it could get complicated if you don’t have storage. So you need to think: what is my energy agenda? How much do I want to have on renewables? How do we deal with the fact that sometimes availability and demand don’t match?

“So you say, okay, maybe we do baseload nuclear. Then maybe gas fired or even hydrogen-fired gas turbines for peaks [in demand].”

But he added: “Where does the hydrogen come from? That story of green hydrogen is another fairytale. If you believe in the next five years, in industry it’s a feasible option – it’s not.”

Mr Kaeser seemed faintly exasperated by the state of the industry.

“There’s just now, every week, every month, another debate about something. Do you bring nuclear back, or that or this? And this is what causes friction,” he sighed. “Uncertainty is great, but I have enough uncertainty already.”

Mr Kaeser is a Siemens lifer who joined the company after graduating in 1980. He was chief executive from 2013 to 2021, during which time Siemens Energy was spun-off as part of a split. Siemens retains a 25pc stake in the energy business, while the company’s pension fund owns a further 30pc.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The post Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough

Energy News Beat

The German boss of Britain’s biggest wind turbine maker has warned energy bills will have to keep rising to pay for the green transition as he attacked “fairytale” thinking about net zero.

Joe Kaeser, chairman of Siemens Energy, suggested higher energy bills were inevitable as turbine makers grapple with huge losses, forcing them to pass on costs to their customers.

The company is the owner of the UK’s biggest wind turbine manufacturing site, in Hull, and employs thousands of British workers.

Mr Kaeser said manufacturers had become locked in a harmful “rat race” to build ever-bigger turbines and claimed developers and governments were in denial about the costs this entailed.

He also warned that inflation is battering industry balance sheets and warned of separate growing problems with faults and breakdowns in the sector.

Mr Kaeser told The Telegraph: “Every transformation comes at a cost and every transformation is painful. And that’s something which the energy industry and the public sector – governments – don’t really want to hear.

“I believe that for a while [customers] need to accept higher pricing.

“And then there might be innovation – about the weight of the blades, other efficiency methods, technology – so the cost can then go down again.

“But the point is, if there is no profit pool in an industry, why should that industry innovate?”

His comments come after the UK Government bowed to industry pressure in November and increased the power prices offered in future renewable energy auctions, after a competition in the summer received no bids from offshore wind developers.

The earlier auction flop triggered serious doubts that the UK would be able to meet its target of 50 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr Kaeser criticised what he described as “a lot of big mouths but little action” that had gone on for years in the wind industry.

Governments and developers are failing to follow through on their own green transition promises quickly enough, he said, while many are reluctant to admit the full costs of their plans to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Wind turbine manufacturers have faced surging prices for materials such as concrete and steel as well as labour and specialist ships used to move large components such as blades and towers.

These rising costs were not factored into many contracts with wind farm developers, pushing turbine makers into the red as a result. Some, including Siemens Energy, have also had to set aside large sums to fix faulty equipment.

After crashing to a €4.6bn (£3.9bn) annual loss last year – blamed mainly on Siemens Gamesa, its offshore wind unit – bosses at the company had to go cap in hand to the German government for support. Gamesa announced 6,000 job cuts in November.

Inflation has also led to the cancellation of many offshore wind projects. 15 gigawatts’ worth of projects were cancelled or postponed last year in the UK and US alone, which would have provided enough electricity to power 12m homes.

As well as inflation, Mr Kaeser, who took over as chairman in 2021, argued that the problems are also down to foot-dragging by developers and governments.

“One of the shortcomings of the wind industry in the last five years is that there were a lot of announcements, a lot of plans,” he explained. “But they took four, five or six years sometimes to go from the order to execution.

“Now, if you have five years in between, you have a massive risk of inflation, which has hit us really, really hard. Not just Siemens Energy, but also others.

“We need to have a long-term energy plan, that this is what we’re going to do in the next three years, five years.”

Mr Kaeser, 66, also criticised a “bigger is better” mentality in the industry that has seen turbine heights more than double in the past 20 years. For example, General Electric’s Haliade-Xs stand at 853 feet each – two and a half times as tall as Big Ben – compared to a typical turbine height of around 300 feet at the turn of the century.

A dash to build bigger and bigger turbines has in some cases proved counterproductive, Mr Kaeser said, by forcing manufacturers to spend large sums of money upfront with too little time to recoup their investments.

“Industry was in quite a rat race. It was 3 gigawatts and then somebody would come out with 3.5 and then someone else 4 and on and on. They hadn’t even tested the old one yet but announced a new one.”

At the same time, flip-flopping on projects or delays caused by slow planning processes have left manufacturers without the certainty they need to invest in even bigger factories, let alone research and development that could bring costs down.

He said: “It’s up and down and up and down, and promise here and promise there and then, ‘Oh, well, renewables are too expensive’. Well, the cost of energy doesn’t go down on renewables if you don’t innovate.

“And if you’re making all the losses, why should you innovate? So you have a sort of a Catch 22, which you can only break if you have a long term energy agenda.”

Ultimately, money talks. If countries and developers are not prepared to put their money where their mouths are, they should rethink their plans for net zero altogether, he suggested.

“I think [the net zero targets] are realistic, but they come at a cost,” Mr Kaeser said. “You need to stick by the facts at some point, even though facts sometimes may not be liked.”

He added that energy supplies are governed by a triangle of “reliability, affordability and sustainability”, but “sustainability and affordability may conflict”.

“If you want to have cheap energy, you need to be gas fired. That’s the cheapest way, the most secure way if you calculate the whole thing, from the beginning to the end.

“I believe people need to become reasonable about the energy transition.

“The matter of renewables being volatile – if there is a windless night, it could get complicated if you don’t have storage. So you need to think: what is my energy agenda? How much do I want to have on renewables? How do we deal with the fact that sometimes availability and demand don’t match?

“So you say, okay, maybe we do baseload nuclear. Then maybe gas fired or even hydrogen-fired gas turbines for peaks [in demand].”

But he added: “Where does the hydrogen come from? That story of green hydrogen is another fairytale. If you believe in the next five years, in industry it’s a feasible option – it’s not.”

Mr Kaeser seemed faintly exasperated by the state of the industry.

“There’s just now, every week, every month, another debate about something. Do you bring nuclear back, or that or this? And this is what causes friction,” he sighed. “Uncertainty is great, but I have enough uncertainty already.”

Mr Kaeser is a Siemens lifer who joined the company after graduating in 1980. He was chief executive from 2013 to 2021, during which time Siemens Energy was spun-off as part of a split. Siemens retains a 25pc stake in the energy business, while the company’s pension fund owns a further 30pc.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The post Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough

Energy News Beat

The German boss of Britain’s biggest wind turbine maker has warned energy bills will have to keep rising to pay for the green transition as he attacked “fairytale” thinking about net zero.

Joe Kaeser, chairman of Siemens Energy, suggested higher energy bills were inevitable as turbine makers grapple with huge losses, forcing them to pass on costs to their customers.

The company is the owner of the UK’s biggest wind turbine manufacturing site, in Hull, and employs thousands of British workers.

Mr Kaeser said manufacturers had become locked in a harmful “rat race” to build ever-bigger turbines and claimed developers and governments were in denial about the costs this entailed.

He also warned that inflation is battering industry balance sheets and warned of separate growing problems with faults and breakdowns in the sector.

Mr Kaeser told The Telegraph: “Every transformation comes at a cost and every transformation is painful. And that’s something which the energy industry and the public sector – governments – don’t really want to hear.

“I believe that for a while [customers] need to accept higher pricing.

“And then there might be innovation – about the weight of the blades, other efficiency methods, technology – so the cost can then go down again.

“But the point is, if there is no profit pool in an industry, why should that industry innovate?”

His comments come after the UK Government bowed to industry pressure in November and increased the power prices offered in future renewable energy auctions, after a competition in the summer received no bids from offshore wind developers.

The earlier auction flop triggered serious doubts that the UK would be able to meet its target of 50 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr Kaeser criticised what he described as “a lot of big mouths but little action” that had gone on for years in the wind industry.

Governments and developers are failing to follow through on their own green transition promises quickly enough, he said, while many are reluctant to admit the full costs of their plans to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Wind turbine manufacturers have faced surging prices for materials such as concrete and steel as well as labour and specialist ships used to move large components such as blades and towers.

These rising costs were not factored into many contracts with wind farm developers, pushing turbine makers into the red as a result. Some, including Siemens Energy, have also had to set aside large sums to fix faulty equipment.

After crashing to a €4.6bn (£3.9bn) annual loss last year – blamed mainly on Siemens Gamesa, its offshore wind unit – bosses at the company had to go cap in hand to the German government for support. Gamesa announced 6,000 job cuts in November.

Inflation has also led to the cancellation of many offshore wind projects. 15 gigawatts’ worth of projects were cancelled or postponed last year in the UK and US alone, which would have provided enough electricity to power 12m homes.

As well as inflation, Mr Kaeser, who took over as chairman in 2021, argued that the problems are also down to foot-dragging by developers and governments.

“One of the shortcomings of the wind industry in the last five years is that there were a lot of announcements, a lot of plans,” he explained. “But they took four, five or six years sometimes to go from the order to execution.

“Now, if you have five years in between, you have a massive risk of inflation, which has hit us really, really hard. Not just Siemens Energy, but also others.

“We need to have a long-term energy plan, that this is what we’re going to do in the next three years, five years.”

Mr Kaeser, 66, also criticised a “bigger is better” mentality in the industry that has seen turbine heights more than double in the past 20 years. For example, General Electric’s Haliade-Xs stand at 853 feet each – two and a half times as tall as Big Ben – compared to a typical turbine height of around 300 feet at the turn of the century.

A dash to build bigger and bigger turbines has in some cases proved counterproductive, Mr Kaeser said, by forcing manufacturers to spend large sums of money upfront with too little time to recoup their investments.

“Industry was in quite a rat race. It was 3 gigawatts and then somebody would come out with 3.5 and then someone else 4 and on and on. They hadn’t even tested the old one yet but announced a new one.”

At the same time, flip-flopping on projects or delays caused by slow planning processes have left manufacturers without the certainty they need to invest in even bigger factories, let alone research and development that could bring costs down.

He said: “It’s up and down and up and down, and promise here and promise there and then, ‘Oh, well, renewables are too expensive’. Well, the cost of energy doesn’t go down on renewables if you don’t innovate.

“And if you’re making all the losses, why should you innovate? So you have a sort of a Catch 22, which you can only break if you have a long term energy agenda.”

Ultimately, money talks. If countries and developers are not prepared to put their money where their mouths are, they should rethink their plans for net zero altogether, he suggested.

“I think [the net zero targets] are realistic, but they come at a cost,” Mr Kaeser said. “You need to stick by the facts at some point, even though facts sometimes may not be liked.”

He added that energy supplies are governed by a triangle of “reliability, affordability and sustainability”, but “sustainability and affordability may conflict”.

“If you want to have cheap energy, you need to be gas fired. That’s the cheapest way, the most secure way if you calculate the whole thing, from the beginning to the end.

“I believe people need to become reasonable about the energy transition.

“The matter of renewables being volatile – if there is a windless night, it could get complicated if you don’t have storage. So you need to think: what is my energy agenda? How much do I want to have on renewables? How do we deal with the fact that sometimes availability and demand don’t match?

“So you say, okay, maybe we do baseload nuclear. Then maybe gas fired or even hydrogen-fired gas turbines for peaks [in demand].”

But he added: “Where does the hydrogen come from? That story of green hydrogen is another fairytale. If you believe in the next five years, in industry it’s a feasible option – it’s not.”

Mr Kaeser seemed faintly exasperated by the state of the industry.

“There’s just now, every week, every month, another debate about something. Do you bring nuclear back, or that or this? And this is what causes friction,” he sighed. “Uncertainty is great, but I have enough uncertainty already.”

Mr Kaeser is a Siemens lifer who joined the company after graduating in 1980. He was chief executive from 2013 to 2021, during which time Siemens Energy was spun-off as part of a split. Siemens retains a 25pc stake in the energy business, while the company’s pension fund owns a further 30pc.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The post Energy bills must rise to pay for net zero, says Siemens Energy boss – Like they have not risen enough appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Quebec court shuts down subsidized Northvolt EV plant following injunction

Energy News Beat

A Quebec court has shut down construction on a massive multi-billion dollar EV plant pending an injunction from a Montreal environmental group.

The Centre Québécois du Droit de L’environnement (CQDE), on Thursday filed the injunction request in Superior Court, calling for the work to stop to protect local wetlands near the Richelieu River in Saint-Basile-le-Grand, about 30 km east of Montreal.

Sweden-based Northvolt said it decided to suspend work on the construction site “out of respect for the ongoing legal process.” Both sides were in court Friday morning, but the hearing was suspended until next week.

In a statement, Northvolt said that its previous projects have respected some of the strictest environmental norms in the world. “And we plan to continue to abide by the environmental rules that are in effect,” it said.

As part of the construction work, Northvolt last week began felling some 10,000 trees after getting approval from Quebec’s environment minister. It says it plans to replant at least 20,000 to make up for the shortfall.

The $7 billion project was announced to much fanfare — and subsidies — last September with promises to create at least 3,000 new jobs. At the time Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called it “historic and transformative.”

According to the Parliamentary Budget Office, the governments of Canada, Ontario and Quebec have ponied up a combined $37.7 billion to support EV manufacturing through 2033, although it says the figure could easily top $50 billion when all is said and done.

Northvolt received $4.6 billion, including $3.1 billion from the federal government and $1.5 billion from the government of Quebec. No timeline has been made for a second phase that would double output.

Western Standard

 

The post Quebec court shuts down subsidized Northvolt EV plant following injunction appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

2023 – The Year The Renewables Bubble Burst

Energy News Beat

In 2023. clean energy witnessed one of the toughest years in its short history. Supply chain issues, the energy crisis post Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing ramp of interest rates and inflation hit all entities across the natural resources value chain. Clean energy bore the brunt of these global tensions more than other sectors in this space. By the end of last year clean energy stocks were down and underperforming against the overall market and their energy market peers.

Let’s take a look at what went wrong last year and the reasons for optimism going into 2024.

So, why did clean energy take the biggest hit?

Firstly, clean energy entities (wind and solar markets here) are typically more exposed to cost of capital and interest rate hikes, unlike their cash-rich energy major and mining peers with proportionally lower capital expenditure as a function of overall cost base.

Secondly, as the world has re-prioritised energy security over sustainability, large energy companies have rolled back on renewables ambitions to focus more on hydrocarbons once again. Market sentiment followed, leaving clean energy firms undervalued in comparison.

The role of technology cost increases

Renewables are characterized by high up front capital expenditure, with very low operating costs. Solar PV costs jumped up 23% from 2022 to 2023, a trend seen across the renewables space. The industry, which typically underestimates cost reductions, was not designed or prepared for these radical cost increases.

A key market driver in Europe is renewables auctions, alongside PPAs. The market response was significant under-subscription to auctions as ceiling prices were evidently too low, resulting in unprofitable economics and a lack of successful bidders.

There was also a notable slow-down of the secondary market. Between Q4 2023 and Q3 2023 we saw a 71% drop in secondary market transactions (transactions between existing investors and developers of solar projects).

 

On the horizon in 2024

Central bank interest rates are likely to get cut after two years of aggressive hikes. Investment delays has resulted in pent-up capital, with investor appetite for the power and renewables opportunities afoot across Europe. Although rates may drop slower than most onlookers wish, we expect the soft-landing outlook with resettling of interest rates to spur on investment activity once again.

Although investment sentiment has changed and fossil fuels in the meantime have become somewhat fashionable again as energy security has been reprioritised, the energy transition and investment into clean energy has not slowed down. $US 1.7 trillion was invested into clean energy in 2023 (IEA), 65% more than into fossil fuels and as the energy transition accelerates this gap will continue to widen. Wood Mackenzie expects 710 gigawatts (GW) of new wind, solar and energy storage capacity to be built across Europe by 2030 alone.

In addition, routes to market for renewables are also reopening. Government administrations are revising auction ceiling prices upwards to ensure they bring much needed wind and solar capacity to market once again. For instance, after no successful bids in 2023 the UK Government is increasing its offshore wind auction ceiling price by 66% from £44/MWh to £73/MWh to spur on the market once again.

PPA markets are also set to strengthen. Solar PPA volumes came back in 2023 after a slump in 2022, due to an uncertain market with major policy shifts such as windfall taxes and high-price pressures. On the other hand, wind PPA volumes continue to slump, with a cost premium to solar and longer development lead times. However, as these issues subside, this market should also pick up in 2024.

What opportunities are afoot across the supply chain?

Europe’s Net Zero Industry Act offers no direct incentives but targets to meet 45% to 90% demand from local content. There are plans to loosen state aid rules to allow government investment, speed up permitting and encourage domestic content. The European Commission estimates that EUR € 89 billion of investment is required out to 2030 across the key wind, PV, battery, electrolyser and heat pump value chains.

Offshore wind has seen huge uptick in Europe and further afield. As the market ramps up and technology gets bigger and better, Wood Mackenzie sees an investment gap open up. Globally, offshore wind needs $22 billion in supply chain investments by 2030 across installation vessels and key component manufacturing alone. This figure increases when taking investment needs for port infrastructure, R&D and facility upgrades into consideration.

More generally, entities right across the wind value chain have struggled. Large entities across component and turbine supply have been hit hard, with negative EBIT margins and record low valuations. This culminated at the end of 2023 in Siemens Energy requiring a €15 billion loan (backed by a €7.5 billion German state guarantee) to shore up its balance sheet after being dragged down by its wind business.

Putting this alongside strong longer term market fundamentals, we see opportunities for investing in distressed assets across the wind space. With depressed valuations but continuation of typical lucrative return margins, this could be an attractive space in 2024, particularly deals involving entities in O&M, services and asset ownership.

Hydrogen and energy storage

Hydrogen projects are maturing very slowly, faced with high-costs and project complexity. Actual project costs are higher than expected limiting volumes that governments can subsidize. The UK’s first funding round auction at the end of 2023 supported just 125 MW of a 250 MW pot but a business case did finally emerge with 15-year strike prices for operation targets in 2025.

Meanwhile recycling electrons to enable renewables is now a strong growth market across Europe. Battery energy storage, a technology often underestimated and misunderstood, finally takes off. Solar hybridization ramps up and as the market matures primary applications move to trading and arbitrage, the largest value pools in power markets. Wood Mackenzie forecasts the 34 gigawatt hour (GWh) installed base in 2023 to grow ten-fold by 2032.

What are the risks to this optimistic view?

All eyes are hoping for an acceleration of interest rate reductions. If reductions do not materialize this will push the market back. Renewable power markets in Europe continue to be agonizingly coupled with gas prices; setting the underlying power price. Another unsettling event on wider global geopolitics could have detrimental consequences on energy prices for this sector and slow down this much needed upturn.

Wood Mackenzie

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