An approval in principle (AiP) certificate has been granted for an ammonia fuelled ammonia bunkering vessel. The project has been led by Japanese shipowner Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK) along with Singaporean shipyard group Seatrium and its design subsidiary LMG Marin. The design will now be submitted to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) for evaluation.
This vessel, if brought to fruition, will be the first bunkering vessel of its kind, and comes at a time when many shipowners are looking towards ammonia as their preferred fuel of the future to meet green targets.
“By enhancing the feasibility of ammonia as a future fuel, this project positions the consortium at the forefront of the maritime energy transition,” NYK stated in a release.
Among its many novel design features, the bunkering boom of the planned vessel features a unique technology called the High Speed Ammonia Purging Emergency Release System (ERS), which enables a reliable and efficient disconnection between vessels in an emergency.
Shipmanagers have expressed concerns in connection with the International Maritime Organization’s future net-zero framework and have suggested changes which they believe would make the proposals more effective.
Acting on behalf of the global shipmanagement sector, InterManager, the international association for shipmanagers, has submitted a proposal to the next meeting of the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC83) to suggest changes.
The submission warns that, in its current form, the greenhouse gas (GHG) proposal doesn’t properly account for the involvement of a third-party International Safety Management (ISM) Manager.
Highlighting that roughly 20% of the global fleet is operated by a third-party technical shipmanager as the ISM Manager, the submission asserts the need for further refining to make it applicable in practice and to avoid future national implementing acts being open to inevitable and avoidable litigation by shipmanagers.
“In comparison to the charterer and shipowner, the shipmanager has no material influence over the GHG intensity of a ship. Shipmanagers have no say regarding the type of engine powering the managed ship, nor whether sails, solar, fuel cells or other installations are installed onboard. Such choices are decided exclusively by the shipowner,” InterManager explained in a release.
“Ship managers are not consulted and, in addition, have no influence as to which fuels are procured and supplied to any of the managed ships, neither contractually nor in practice. The matter is negotiated between the shipowner and the charterer and agreed in the charter party agreement for the ship, together with speed and consumption, the remaining significant parameters impacting on its GHG intensity,” the submission states.
However, the current proposed draft amendments to MARPOL Annex VI on the IMO net-zero framework suggest making shipmanagers the sole responsible entity for penalties related to GHG emissions. InterManager maintains this clearly misidentifies the shipmanager as the polluter to be held responsible and penalised which could lead to legal challenges.
Further, by assigning liability for compliance fees to the shipmanager, they in turn, are forced to ask shipowners to provide upfront financial security to cover potential risks of insolvency or defaults. This forces significant amounts of equity to be tied up in security, limiting cash flow available for growth or investment in new ships.
InterManager president Sebastian von Hardenberg (pictured) commented: “We shipmanagers are fully committed to playing our part in shipping’s journey to net zero. However, when it comes to the GHG intensity of a ship, ship managers have no say whatsoever in any of the decisions that result in material impact; they are not even consulted. In shore terms, we are the facility managers, not the factory owners.”
The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has imposed sanctions on more than 30 persons and vessels in multiple jurisdictions for their role in brokering the sale and transportation of Iranian petroleum-related products, the latest in a series of measures the new Donald Trump administration is taking in its so-called maximum pressure campaign against the Middle East nation.
Among those sanctioned yesterday are oil brokers in the United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong, tanker operators and mangers in India and China, the head of Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company, and the Iranian Oil Terminals Company, as well as 13 vessels.
“Iran continues to rely on a shadowy network of vessels, shippers, and brokers to facilitate its oil sales and fund its destabilising activities,” said secretary of the treasury Scott Bessent. “The United States will use all our available tools to target all aspects of Iran’s oil supply chain, and anyone who deals in Iranian oil exposes themselves to significant sanctions risk.”
Yesterday’s action is the second round of sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales since Trump returned to power last month.
“Individuals and entities in or adjacent to the shipping industry should ensure that their sanctions and export control policies and procedures are robust and ready to react and adapt to the invigorated enforcement environment,” law firm Seward & Kissel advised in a recent Iran advisory to clients.
Increased sanctions on tankers used to move Iranian oil should boost demand for compliant VLCCs, possibly at the same time as VLCCs return to moving Atlantic basin crude into India to replace lost Russian barrels, analysts at broker Braemar suggested. This could ease competition for suezmax cargoes, Braemar said, thereby softening the blow of any potential loss of long-haul Russian business.
Natural gas prices have jumped in recent weeks in all major consuming markets, including in the United States, where prices have soared by more than 160% from this time last year. Colder winters in North […]
The UK is imposing a new wave of sanctions against the Russian oil trade, targeting an additional 40 ships. The biggest sanctions package against Russia’s shadow fleet brings the total number of oil tankers sanctioned […]
The Trump administration imposed a new round of sanctions on oil brokers, ships and people it said were linked to illicit shipments of Iranian crude, framing the move as a return to a “maximum pressure” […]
Natural gas prices have jumped in recent weeks in all major consuming markets, including in the United States, where prices have soared by more than 160% from this time last year. Colder winters in North […]
Why hasn’t the messianic urge for “efficiency” hit the tech industry? The most powerful people in the United States are obsessed with spending more on artificial intelligence (AI). Besides Greenland and Gaza, President Donald Trump […]
Cheniere’s Sabine Pass facility currently has a capacity of about 30 mtpa following the launch of the sixth train in February 2022. In December 2023, Cheniere said it plans to build two instead of three liquefaction trains […]
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
01:42 – Natural Gas Prices Surged 160%—And They’re Not Coming Down Soon
03:25 – UK blacklists 40 shadow fleet ships
04:07 – US Imposes Fresh Sanctions Targeting Iran Shadow Fleet
05:00 – AGDC: market interest in Alaska LNG continues to rise
07:06 – American AI Is High on Its Own Supply
08:56 – Cheniere targets Sabine Pass LNG expansion FID in 2026 or 2027
Stuart Turley: [00:05:00] Let’s go to the next article here. AGDC market interest in Alaska LNG continues to rise. This is really, really pretty cool because they stated, AGDC stated that this via social media after the Philippine ambassador to the U .S. Jose Manuel Romandas said that the Philippines plans to procure LNG from Alaska to meet its growing needs to develop the country sector. As I talked a little bit about that in the Energy Realities podcast with Irina Slav, David Blackmon, and the Tammy Nemeth this morning, the LNG export is a Trump’s ace in his back pocket when you start to try to take a look at trade imbalances. People are gonna pay a little bit more for LNG to buy it from the United States. It’s a pretty cool thing, especially when you consider that that may wipe out a trade tariff from the United States. I think people are gonna go, me, but on X today, I don’t know if this is true or not. I saw President Putin saying, President Trump, I would even enter into a negotiation with you for critical minerals. So President Trump is onto something. If this is true and President Putin is going, hey, I don’t mind trading with you for critical minerals. It’s about business. And I think it’s pretty funny that we’re gonna get into this kind of thing that President Trump’s deal making is going to have a very significant wide range. Let’s go to this next story here. And as I bring up this next story with AI and data centers, I wanna give a shout out to Steve Reese and Reese Consulting. They are absolutely at the tip of the spear in natural gas trading, LNG exports. And if you’re in buying, selling oil or training, they are such a phenomenal group of people. I love Steve Reese and the whole gang. Looking forward to a regular series now with Steve. They are sponsoring the Daily Podcast, but I’m gonna be interviewing him live and in person at his place every once in a while. And so we’re gonna have some fun there. [00:07:05][125.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:10:16] All right, well with that, like, subscribe, share, read this to your pets, read this to your family. I’m looking forward to all the great interviews that we’ve got coming up. Got a couple of great interviews with Doug Sandridge and we’re gonna be talking about a few wild kind of things going on there. But anyway, have a great day. We’ll talk to you all soon. [00:10:16][0.0][602.6]
Natural gas prices have jumped in recent weeks in all major consuming markets, including in the United States, where prices have soared by more than 160% from this time last year.
Colder winters in North America and Europe have erased all the surplus inventories stockpiled after the previous two milder winters.
In Europe, the end of the Russian gas transit flows via Ukraine stopped on January 1, prompting the continent to buy more LNG and prepare for a more intense refill season between April and October, as inventories are currently about 35% lower compared to February 2024.
In the United States, cold snaps in both January and February boosted demand for heating and power generation. Higher consumption combined with lower output of the past few months when natural gas firms were curtailing production in response to multi-year low prices early last year. Record-high levels of gas flows to LNG export plants and above-average withdrawals from storage also fueled the natural gas price rally.
Going forward, prices in both the U.S. and Europe are set to remain high even after the end of the heating season in the northern hemisphere, as Europe will need to stock up much larger volumes of gas ahead of the next winter. And most of this will come from LNG imports, mostly from the U.S.
Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, have eased in the past week, but they hit a two-year high earlier this month. The first proper winter in Europe with prolonged periods of cold snaps since the 2022 energy crisis is depleting the EU stockpiles of natural gas, which have dropped to the lowest level since the crisis for this time of the year.
Europe’s gas prices remain high despite the pullback in the most recent week amid speculation about the end of the war in Ukraine. Prices in the forward curve for the summer months are also much higher than in the past two years, as depleted stocks mean more efforts are needed to refill storage levels ahead of the 2025/2026 winter.
As of February 22, gas storage levels across the EU were 40% full, per data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. That’s much lower than about 60% full storage capacity at the same time last year.
Stronger than usual demand in Europe to refill inventories ahead of November 1, 2025, is expected to support prices throughout the summer and extend the current tightness in global natural gas markets.
“Meeting EU targets for filling storage before the start of next winter will require much bigger inflows of gas than in the previous two years, increasing Europe’s call on global LNG markets and tightening market fundamentals,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a commentary last week.
In the United States, natural gas prices have been surging this year on Arctic cold snaps and bigger-than-normal withdrawals from storage. Extremely cold temperatures have also led to freeze-offs in some gas-producing areas, further tightening the supply-demand balance. Add to this record-high exports of LNG, and natural gas prices have become the hottest commodity in the U.S. so far this year. Over the past year, natural gas prices have surged by 160% since February 2024, with most of the gains in the past three winter months.
Net withdrawals from storage have been above-average for the past few weeks, and by the week ending February 19, working natural gas stocks were 5% lower than the five-year average and 16% lower than last year at this time, the latest weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed.
Due to increased consumption and relatively flat production in the remainder of the first quarter of 2025, the EIA expects natural gas inventories at the end of the withdrawal season on March 31 to be 4% below the five-year average.
That would lend further support to natural gas prices, which would be welcome news for gas producers to boost output after a year of curtailments in response to the 2024 multi-year low price levels.
US driller has oil sector on track to grow 17% in 2025
License a ‘challenging card to play’ in talks with Maduro
One of the key reasons Venezuela’s economy is slowly recovering from the worst collapse in modern history is an oil giant 2,200 miles away: Chevron Corp.
The Houston-based company, which has a US waiver to operate in Venezuela despite sanctions against Nicolás Maduro’s authoritarian regime, has helped lift the Andean nation’s crude production back above 1 million barrels per day, stoking an economy that lives and breathes oil.
Now Donald Trump is poised to leverage Chevron’s presence in Venezuela to get what he wants from Maduro.
A decorative oil pump jack in Caracas, Venezuela.Photographer: Matias Delacroix/Bloomberg
The 2022 license that’s seen Chevron ratchet up exports from Venezuela to a seven-year high is the most powerful tool the president has to advance his agenda in Caracas, which includes following through on his campaign pledge to halt irregular migration into the US. Cancelling the waiver would sever a vital financial lifeline for Venezuela’s economy as it begins to perk up — and generate more corruption by handing the government full control of oil trading again.
Chevron has been operating in Venezuela for more than a century. But the company has only recently begun to exert an outsized influence on the nation’s economy.
There are two main reasons. First, as Venezuela’s state oil company deteriorated from chronic underinvestment, Chevron became the driving force behind any growth in oil production. Second, after Venezuela’s living standards collapsed amid Maduro’s failed policies and US sanctions, that output from Chevron became a much bigger slice of the nation’s shrunken economy.
Ventures run jointly with Petroleos de Venezuela SA are estimated to have contributed some $4 billion in tax payments over the past two years, representing about a quarter of the regime’s total revenue over the same period, according to Ecoanalítica, a Caracas-based consultancy. Venezuela’s economy, meanwhile, is on track to grow 9% this year.
Chevron Output Bouncing Back in Venezuela
US company’s joint ventures with PDVSA are pumping and exporting more oil under a special Treasury license
“Chevron’s activity has introduced a crucial element for the country’s macroeconomic stabilization,” Asdrúbal Oliveros, one of Ecoanalítica’s directors, said by phone. “It has jump-started the economy by adding jobs and new service contracts for the recovery of wells, and by sales of foreign currency to the domestic market.”
The revenue Chevron generates in dollars from rising oil production stays in the country and mostly gets reinvested in local currency through private banks, which can lend to companies that help boost the economy — all out of the clutches of the government. Some trickles down to consumers, helping fuel an incipient recovery that’s seen luxury stores, retail chains and car dealerships open in the capital even as a majority of Venezuelans remains impoverished.
It hasn’t, however, come with free and fair elections as former President Joe Biden hoped when he carved out a loophole in Trump’s first-term sanctions for Maduro.
But in a bold step, Trump started fresh with the socialist strongman after sending a top adviser to Caracas at the end of January. The move resulted in the release of six American prisoners and the restart of deportation flights, another of which arrived Thursday carrying about 180 people who’d been expelled from the US to Guantanamo Bay.
While it’s unclear if energy issues were discussed during special envoy Ric Grenell’s talks with Maduro, Chevron’s license was left untouched. It renewed automatically for six months the next day, as it does the first of every month.
In a photo released by Venezuela’s presidential press office, Richard Grenell greets Nicolas Maduro at Miraflores palace in Caracas on Jan. 31.Photographer: Venezuela Presidential Press Office/AP Photo
“The license is a very challenging card to play,” David Goldwyn, head of the energy advisory group at the Atlantic Council, said by phone. “Chevron’s activity in Venezuela is in both country’s interests, as it’s having an efficient player helping the Venezuela economy from falling back and preventing migrants from coming back.”
Trump is keeping his options open. The US company’s operations in the sanctioned nation are currently under review, the president told reporters on Feb. 18 at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida. Asked whether he would be inclined to continue to allow oil exports through Chevron, Trump said: “Maybe not.”
White House officials didn’t respond to emailed requests for comment on Friday.
The million-barrel mark is a substantial milestone for Venezuela, which saw output tank to as low as 365,000 barrels per day from a high of about 3.2 million in the mid-1990s. The oil sector is projected to grow 17% by the end of 2025, about the same as last year and up from a 13% expansion in 2023, according to Sintesis Financiera. The increase is being led by Chevron’s “steady” activity, said Tamara Herrera, head of the Caracas-based financial analysis firm, who described the US company’s work with PDVSA as professional and efficient.
“Chevron has been a constructive presence in Venezuela,” company spokesman Bill Turenne said by email. All business, he added, is conducted “in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations.” Representatives of PDVSA and Venezuela’s government didn’t respond to requests for comment for this story.
Contractors hired by Chevron have seen a surge in work, with subsequent increases in revenue and hiring, mainly in the eastern Venezuelan state of Anzoátegui, where two of the ventures with PDVSA are located.
New and more liberal contracts offered by the Maduro regime after the waiver was issued allowed the company to gain greater control over finances and trading at the ventures, undoing years of erratic PDVSA management.
Since 2023, Chevron offered more contracts for bids to companies it had already vetted, according to a person familiar with the operations, who asked not to be named because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly. The company also directed more of its cash flow to maintenance, procurement and human-resources issues. “This has had a multiplying effect in the economy in Anzoátegui, and the country,” Herrera said.
Chevron sells dollars into the private financing system to buy bolivars that it uses to pay for its operations. The steady flow of foreign currency has helped private importers buy dollars for their purchases, keeping supplies of goods coming and inflation in check. “In a highly import-dependent country like Venezuela, this is very important for domestic consumption,” Herrera said.
Migrants trying to reach the US board a bus traveling to Nicaragua in Los Chiles, Costa Rica, on Nov. 26, 2024.Photographer: Glorianna Ximendaz/Bloomberg
Annual inflation has slowed to 8% from a six-digit peak. And the bolivar has stabilized after steep devaluations. To be sure, the recovery Maduro is presiding over has also been helped by a smaller economy — the result of a mass exodus of people and broad private-sector destruction under his autocratic rule.
On the trading side, oil sales are now more transparent and fetch better prices, a departure from previous years when PDVSA’s total control led to corruption and huge discounts in the Asian market. Chevron’s increased oversight has also helped alleviate Venezuela’s perennial fuel crisis because it doesn’t rely on PDVSA’s dwindling production of diluent and instead ships its own from the US
Chevron, the only US oil producer left in Venezuela, is currently pumping about 240,000 barrels a day, or nearly 23% of the country’s overall production, representing around $6 billion in revenue. That level of output is similar to what the company produced in 2018, before Trump first hit Maduro with sanctions.
So while the US president’s team is sending mixed signals this time around, the Atlantic Council’s Goldwyn is cautiously optimistic Chevron will be allowed to keep pumping crude given how essential it’s become to keep Venezuela’s economy from cratering again.
“The Trump administration realizes the ‘maximum pressure’ policy caused economic stress that led to migration into neighboring countries and didn’t result in political change,” he said. “We’re in the early days of the Trump administration and we still need to see if Maduro is cooperative.”
The Trump administration imposed a new round of sanctions on oil brokers, ships and people it said were linked to illicit shipments of Iranian crude, framing the move as a return to a “maximum pressure” strategy to squeeze the country’s economy.
Twenty-two people and 13 vessels were targeted in the latest sanctions, the State and Treasury Departments said in statements Monday. The agencies said they were targeting a network linked to the shipment of tens of millions of barrels of crude oil, and that the sanctioned entities are located in Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, India and China.
“Iran continues to rely on a shadowy network of vessels, shippers, and brokers to facilitate its oil sales and fund its destabilizing activities,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement. “The United States will use all our available tools to target all aspects of Iran’s oil supply chain, and anyone who deals in Iranian oil exposes themselves to significant sanctions risk.”
Pulitzer-nominated author Ronald Stein stimulates conversations to enhance everyone’s energy literacy.
Two decades after the term microplastics was first coined, scientists and environmental advocates are sounding the alarm on the urgent need for global action. The continued use of their by-products has led to a great accumulation of waste in the environment, with devastating consequences for marine life, human health, and ecosystems.
Ronald Stein
Microplastics infiltrate the ocean through multiple pathways and are ingested by fish, birds, and marine mammals, which leads to suffocation, starvation, and genetic alterations. These same particles make their way into human bodies, absorbed through the skin, inhaled through the air, and consumed via contaminated food and water. Disturbingly, scientists have even detected microplastics in human organs and newborn placentas.
The broader context of the plastic crisis is equally dire. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) reports that over 430 million tons of plastic are produced annually, with two-thirds discarded after just one use. The report also shows that 11 million metric tons of plastic enter the ocean each year, and, if this trajectory continues, plastic waste will triple by 2060, choking marine environments and threatening biodiversity.
Ronald Stein, P.E., a Pulitzer Prize-nominated author, energy policy advisor, and the one who established PTS Advance, has researched, written about, and spoke on various topics related to environmental and social costs and their relation to green energy. His insights enlighten others to rethink several interrelated themes of energy.
He observes that apart from its penetration into the marine and human ecosystems, plastic is also an energy-intensive product. Manufacturing virgin PET plastic that is used in packaging requires a lot of energy. Given that plastic production is set to triple in the coming decades, this also means a massive increase in the consumption of energy.
Interestingly, emerging technologies suggest that microplastics might not just be a waste problem but an energy opportunity. Researchers have demonstrated that heating a mix of microplastics and microalgae to 300°C can decompose organic matter into carbon-rich materials. This breakthrough suggests a potential dual benefit of removing harmful microplastics from oceans while repurposing them as an energy source.
Different recycling methods, however, come with their own energy costs and environmental trade-offs. Pyrolysis, for example, produces emissions, though these often come from byproducts rather than the core process. The challenge remains in balancing environmental impact with energy efficiency to create truly sustainable plastic solutions. Recognizing this, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) even allocated $13.4 million to develop next-generation plastic recycling technologies to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions from single-use plastics.
While the world works on transitioning to renewable energy, one has to understand the indispensable role of the one component that compounds 98% of plastic produced: petrochemicals. Ronald points out that energy policies, such as banning plastics completely, result in global disparities. These energy policies don’t just affect corporations; they can also lead to homelessness, hunger, and economic insecurity. The challenge, therefore, is not just to eliminate plastics but to rethink their lifecycle, production, and disposal.
According to him, petrochemicals can power more than just fuel pumps. They are the building blocks of many products, from medical equipment and telecommunications to heating, transportation, and everyday household appliances. Even renewable energy infrastructure—wind turbines, solar panels, and EV batteries—relies on petrochemical-based materials for production.
“One thing I wish people would speak about more, even if it seems initially obvious,” says Ronald, “is this: while wind turbines and solar panels might provide electricity, they’re incapable of making plastics. Plastics come from petrochemicals.”
Electricity came about AFTER the discovery of oil. ALL six methods for the generation of electricity from hydro, coal, natural gas, nuclear, wind, and solar are built with the products, components, and equipment that are made from the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil. Without oil, there would be no electricity!
Everything that requires electricity to function, including iPhones, computers, data centers, and X-ray machines, is made with petrochemicals derived from crude oil. Without fossil fuels, there would be nothing that would need electricity; and understanding this is of utmost importance.
That is why Ronald strongly emphasizes that energy literacy is more critical than ever. His mission is clear: to bridge the gap between idealism and realism in energy policy. He emphasizes the need to identify the plastics we still need and improve recycling infrastructure. His books, including the 2021 Pulitzer Prize-nominated book “Clean” Energy Exploitations, Just GREEN Electricity, and Energy Made Easy, provide a balanced perspective on the same issue.
Through his weekly op-eds and public speaking engagements, Ronald continues to challenge assumptions, provoke discussions, and advocate for energy policies that balance sustainability with practicality. “Change begins with awareness,” Ronald concludes. And with every article, every book, and every public appearance, he is doing just that—one conversation at a time.
The rethink about manufacturing in highly automated US plants is one of the big changes coming out of the pandemic. Industrial robots cost the same anywhere.
Apple said today that it would invest $500 billion in the US over the next four years, part of which is centered around setting up a 250,000-square-foot manufacturing plant in Houston, Texas, to manufacture AI servers that had been “previously manufactured outside the US.” The factory is expected to open in 2026 and will create “thousands of jobs.”
“The servers bring together years of R&D by Apple engineers, and deliver the industry-leading security and performance of Apple silicon to the data center,” Apple said in the press release.
The investment also includes $5 billion for its U.S. Advanced Manufacturing Fund, doubling it to $10 billion. The fund was created in 2017 “to support world-class innovation and high-skilled manufacturing jobs across America,” Apple said. The fund has already supported manufacturing projects in 13 states “that have helped build local businesses, train workers, and create a wide range of innovative manufacturing processes and materials for Apple products,” Apple said.
That expansion “includes a multibillion-dollar commitment from Apple to produce advanced silicon in TSMC’s Fab 21 facility in Arizona,” which produces semiconductors, of which Apple is the largest customer. Mass production of Apple chips began “last month,” Apple said.
Among the other elements of the $500 billion investment is the “Apple Manufacturing Academy” that it plans to open in Detroit to “help companies transition to advanced manufacturing.” Apple engineers and experts from top universities “will consult with small- and medium-sized businesses on implementing AI and smart manufacturing techniques.” The academy will also offer free courses to teach workers “vital skills like project management and manufacturing process optimization.”
Those investments in US high-tech manufacturing would be a far better use of cash than incinerating this cash on share buybacks.
Part of the purpose of this big-kahuna announcement was obviously a publicity stunt with the Trump administration.
But the rethink about manufacturing in the US is real.
The pandemic-era supply-chain chaos and the strategic problems with China triggered a corporate rethink about offshoring manufacturing, especially with regards to China.
The Biden administration rolled out huge incentive programs for manufactures to set up plants in the US, especially semiconductor fabs with the CHIPS act. And they’re being built.
The Trump administration, instead of paying companies to build plants in the US, has threatened to tax their imports, which has a similar impact as Biden’s subsidies in that they further encourage the corporate rethink about manufacturing in the US. But tariffs don’t transfer funds from individual taxpayers to the biggest and richest companies globally, which is what Biden’s programs did.
Investments in the construction of manufacturing plants in the US in 2024 jumped by 20% from 2023, and by 184% from 2021, to a record $233 billion, according to data on construction spending from the Census Bureau.
These investments in factory construction do not include data centers (which are included in office construction), or industrial facilities, such as buildings designed for warehouses and fulfillment centers (even if they’re eventually used for manufacturing as well). This metric of factory construction spending tracks purpose-built manufacturing plants.
These amounts cover the building itself, plus equipment such as HVAC systems, but not the industrial robots and other manufacturing equipment inside the building, which can cost many times more than the building. The total cost of a big chip plant might reach $20 billion, but the construction costs might be only a small fraction of it. And only the construction costs are included here.
These facilities being built in the US are highly automated and will produce complex high-value products. Plants for the production of semiconductors, EVs, EV batteries, electrical equipment and components, etc. are on top of the list. Apple has added an AI-server plant to it.
Factory Construction doubles its share of total construction spending.
Manufacturing plants’ percentage share of total construction spending – dominated by residential construction – has doubled since 2019 and more than doubled since 2021, to a share of 10.8% for the 12 months through December. This ratio cancels out the impact of construction cost inflation.
The risks and costs of globalization and China-dependence became all too clear during the pandemic. The increasingly complicated and stressed relationship between the US and China has exposed the scary dependence by US companies on production in China as a fundamental risk, not only for the companies, but also for national security. These are strategic issues.
Trump, during this first term, was the first president who had the gumption to be a China hawk, against a revolt by Corporate America and entrenched globalization-mongering economists and media. Biden followed in his footsteps. And the new Trump administration is moving further into that direction.
But it takes years from deciding to build a huge complex automated factory to actually being able to ramp up mass-production in that factory. These are long-term moves that don’t happen from one month to the next.
Industrial robots cost the same anywhere. They’re the great equalizer. In modern highly automated manufacturing, manual labor is a much smaller cost component on a per-product basis. In addition, manufacturing in the US reduces transportation costs, the risks of loss of Intellectual Property (IP), a given in China, lead times, and other risks and costs.
Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:
With significant changes facing the world right now, what is the future of the BRICS Movement? David Blackmon, Irina Slav, Tammy Nemeth, and Stu Turley will discuss the key issues surrounding the BRICS live on X, LinkedIn, and YouTube on Monday at 8:00 Central US time. With a unique group of Energy Experts from around the world, we have a fresh perspective on energy. You will want to join the fun and ask questions along with the regular attendees.
30:56 – Turkey’s Interest in BRICS & Energy Strategy
35:13 – Energy Secretary Ed Miliband recruits Extinction Rebellion cheerleaders to government roles to help push through costly agenda
39:55 – ICYMI: Trump Cancels U.S. Participation in IPCC
42:19 – Oil Companies Urge Trump to Retain 45V the Hydrogen Credit
46:44 – Power sector trends reveal widening divide between EU and Russia
47:26 – Europe seeks to replace imported Russian fertilizers with local manure
53:19 – AGDC: market interest in Alaska LNG continues to rise
54:30 – Redrawing of global energy markets map set to heap benefits on US
1:00:50 – Closing Thoughts
Irina SlavInternational Author writing about energy, mining, and geopolitical issues. BulgariaDavid BlackmonPrincipal at DB Energy Advisors, energy author, and podcast host.Principal at DB Energy Advisors, energy author, and podcast host.Tammy NemethEnergy Consulting SpecialistStuart TurleyPresident, and CEO, Sandstone Group, Podcast Host
What is the future of BRICS?
Stuart Turley [00:00:03] And it did not play.
David Blackmon [00:00:04] Well. Here we are.
Stuart Turley [00:00:09] All right. You’re ready to rumble. Tammy. In the intro.
Tammy Nemeth [00:00:14] We’re just going to skip the intro. Got it. Okay. So welcome everyone to the Energy Realities Podcast for Monday, February 24th, 2025. And today we’re going to be talking about the BRICS with our usual crew. We have the ever witty Irina Slav. Irina, how are you doing today in Bulgaria?
Irina Slav [00:00:35] I’m great. Thank you Tammy.
Tammy Nemeth [00:00:38] That’s awesome. And we also have the irrepressible Stu Turley. Stu, how are you doing today? Where are you? Texas.
Stuart Turley [00:00:46] I’m in Oklahoma. And I finally got it. Got water back. Water. The pipes are frozen for a week. And I got to even work on my back yesterday. So life is good.
Tammy Nemeth [00:00:58] Life is good, especially with a backhoe. So many things you can do with that one.
Stuart Turley [00:01:03] Oh, absolutely.
Tammy Nemeth [00:01:05] And we also have today the master of absurdities. Mr. David Blackmon, how are you today?
David Blackmon [00:01:12] I’m great. It’s it’s it’s foggy here in North Texas, but at least it’s above freezing. So I’m all happy.
Tammy Nemeth [00:01:22] And grateful for for small things. Right. And you never know when, when it’s going to be, like, super cold and stuff. And of course, there’s myself, the realist scholar Tammy Nemeth. And it’s another gray rainy day in England. And I have to throw this little anecdote in here. My son, for one of his science classes, one of their experiments is to make at home a solar oven in February in England. It makes no sense. He can’t get it to work. And to me, it just kind of Demonstrates what a bad idea solar is in this country.
David Blackmon [00:02:00] It really does.
Tammy Nemeth [00:02:03] So onto our our topic today of the BRICS. I think first maybe to to set up this conversation, we should discuss or I’ll define what the BRICS are. So the BRICS is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. They have four new members. And those new members are Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran. They also invited Argentina and Saudi Arabia. But Argentina said, no, we don’t want to do this right now. And Saudi Arabia says we’re still thinking about this. We’re not sure. There’s also nine new partners, and those partners are Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia. Kazakhstan. Malaysia. Thailand, Uganda and Uzbekistan. Okay, so those are the members and what do they want? Well, according to one article, what they want is securing the economic interests of non-Western countries. And we saw this during the Biden administration, where there was this move to create a sort of separate trading bloc that would use something other than the dollar because of all the different sanctions and leverage that was being used for countries that use the US dollar in trade. In order to get countries to move in more alignment with what was going on with the war in Ukraine. And so I think there is a lot of resistance to what the West was doing. And you saw this kind of bifurcation in the global system between the West, G7, G20 and what became the BRICS or, you know, as a more formal trading organization. And that brings us up to now, where Trump has said any country that looks to do dollarization, that means trade not in the US dollar anymore would face up to 150% tariffs. So with that context in mind, David, what is the future of BRICS?
David Blackmon [00:04:15] Oh, that’s such an interesting question. I yeah, the whole world changed. And, you know, I’m convinced we had a split in the matrix and went into an alternative universe when Trump turned his head and Butler, Pennsylvania and only got nicked in the year by that bullet. And I think in the other universe we were in, he probably got killed by that assassin. And Kamala Harris is now the president. And BRICS will be just fine in our universe. The, the, the split universe that we went off in on July 13th of last year. I think BRICS’s future is very uncertain, and it’s uncertain for a lot of reasons, mainly having to do with Trump. I think their their ability, I think their geopolitical influence of these countries. Suffered a pretty severe setback when the U.S. election went the way it did. I think Trump is is reasserting the United States in terms of geopolitical leverage on all sorts of different issues, including the strengthening, you know, preservation of the US dollar is the currency of Mark. I don’t think Kamala Harris even knew what that means and wouldn’t have done anything, any kind of work to preserve that. And so I think that, you know, last year there was so much speculation on the last two years whether, you know, BRICS was going to have its own currency and try to try to use their own national currencies for international trades and oil trading. You know, I think that the threat of that to the US dollar is pretty much gone. But the other side of that is this Trump doesn’t have a lot of use for European leaders like Emmanuel Macron in France. Keir Starmer in the UK, whoever’s going, whatever globalist, is going to emerge out of the German elections that were held yesterday, even though the nominal, quote, Conservative Party had 29% of the votes, which was the highest vote total in Germany yesterday. It’s a total globalist. I mean, it’s about as conservative as the Tories are in the UK, which is not conservative at all. And so I don’t think Trump’s going to have a real strong relationship with Germany either. And that’s going to serve to. You know, it’s already he’s already in the process of weakening NATO because he has such strong disagreements with the proxy war in Ukraine and the way NATO has been funded, and the failure of many European members of NATO to to live up to their commitments, their funding commitments. And I think you’re going to see a similar dynamic where Trump is probably going to, you know, his his disdain for many of those leaders is going to serve to weaken the G7 and the G20, and that can only ensure to BRICS is benefit. And so I think that the jury’s still out. I mean, the bottom line here, to put it bluntly, I don’t know what the future BRICS is, and I don’t think anyone does. And what the impact from the Trump presidency is going to be on the strength of that alliance. Other than that, we’re going to see the United States a lot more assertive in international geopolitical affairs. And, you know, we’ll just have to wait and see. I mean, I think the other thing I think that’s important to note is this week, Trump is meeting with both Starmer and Macron in Washington, DC. And I think you’re going to see some very tense discussions held during those meetings. And what comes out of them, I think, is going to play a pretty significant role in how all of this shakes out in the months to come. So bottom line is, I don’t know. And I’m not sure if I said anything useful over the last week.
Tammy Nemeth [00:08:35] Well, Irina what do you think? I mean, that the BRICS just had their sort of first meeting this year in Brazil, and Brazil had set out five main issues that they wanted to focus on. Number one was facilitating trade and investment, which, you know, I think that was one of the main reasons why BRICS got together in the first place. It’s not a form, right. Some kind of trading thing. And then the other points are kind of funny. Number two is regulating AI. Three is of course tackling climate change. Got it. Put that one in there. Like is if you know Russia and China care. And for cooperating in the field of public health. And then five is institutional development which is strengthening the internal framework of the BRICS for effective governance and decision making and so on, which sounds like they’re trying to maybe have it be more of a sort of political organization rather than an economic one. What do you think is going on there, and what’s the future?
Irina Slav [00:09:38] Well, it sounds like they had to have an agenda with more than one item on it, so that that’s why they had all these items. Well, for starters, I was great with with David that Trump really changed the game. The reason he changed the game is that he’s opting for tariffs, which I would call the soft sanctions. It’s not just harsh direct sanctions, because really, the impetus that BRICS got in the past three years was because of the sanctions against Russia. Yeah. When every other country outside the Western bloc started asking, what if we’re next? What if we just do something that the US does and like we need to protect ourselves against this? This is why they had so many new partners and candidates and members. So from this perspective, I think with Trump. This momentum that the war in the Ukraine gave BRICS is going to to weaken the would not have so much reason to rush to get even closer together and accept more members and centralize whatever organization they’re trying to build. They are, in essence, the BRICS are trade organization, and there’s nothing wrong with that. I don’t think they were ever seriously considering a common currency. To me, this was trolling, trolling the Biden administration and the G7, including those, you know, banknotes with the super ugly design and all that. Creating a common currency, currency, Euro style was require a lot of effort, a lot of work and a lot of money. Nobody needs this. So I don’t think they’re going this way. And I think however Briggs develops, it will be happening much more slowly over the next four years or eight years if Trump gets a second term. But I think it’s not going to go away because of Trump and because of his threats of tariffs, the threat of tariffs will do its job. But you can’t, you know, prevent, for example, Russia and China from trading between themselves in yuan so rudely. And I think Trump Trump shouldn’t try to do this. You know they’re getting along just just nicely right now. And that’s a good thing for the whole world. So I think the immediate future, the way I see it with Trump is that BRICS is growth and development will slow down, which is a good thing. No need to rush into anything, but it will be more of a European Union than a NATO. To put it this way.
Tammy Nemeth [00:12:48] Okay, that’s really interesting because the European Union started out as a sort of economic bloc and then eventually evolved into this more political type of formation.
Irina Slav [00:13:01] Actually Italian superstate.
Tammy Nemeth [00:13:03] Yeah, right. Which is where we’re at now, which I got to be careful. Maybe I shouldn’t say that.
Irina Slav [00:13:09] Yeah, I think this is going. Sorry, I don’t think this is going to happen to Greece because as comments are said, they wouldn’t say they don’t have anything in common. The BRICS countries, they have a lot in common. They have common interests, common economic and trade interests. But they’re a lot more diverse culturally, historically and politically than the members of the European Union. The original members of the European Union. I don’t mean Eastern Europe, but even with Eastern Europe, a lot more homogenous than the BRICS countries. So I don’t think there is a threat of the BRICS, you know, evolving into this sort of. It’s also literally information that the EU has become, at least in the next decade or so. But who knows?
Tammy Nemeth [00:13:59] Who knows these days for sure. Stu, what do you think of this idea about it? It’s them focusing more on the sort of economic side than all the political stuff that they’ve been kind of drifting towards over the past 4 or 5 years.
Stuart Turley [00:14:16] A great questions, and I love the responses already. You did a great intro. Yay! Great responses from David Blackmon and Irina. And I think that this is going to bring up about 15 different major issues. And that is the President Trump is changing the tariffs. Let’s hold that for just an issue over here. But let me share the screen here. This article from Russia. Planning peaceful nuclear projects with the BRICS state is actually out of Ethiopia. And this is exactly where BRICS is going to really play in, in the negotiations like you mentioned. And that is Russia’s expertise in nuclear and projects in being able to work within trade organizations. I think this is phenomenal. And if the Biden-Harris administration had not weaponized the U.S. dollar, I don’t think BRICS would have gotten the traction that it had. I think their moronic stupidity, absolutely horrific policies, It really helped us out. I’m all in on UN Russia, helping Ethiopia and other countries exporting their nuclear power plant expertise and doing trade balance. That should set a huge goal for our energy in the United States. Why don’t we export our nuclear capabilities and help build plants? Oh, we can’t build nuclear in the United States because of our regulatory processes. The I mean, why can’t we be like the UAE when they build a nuclear reactor plant in under five years, under budget and on time? Wow.
Irina Slav [00:16:11] It’s possible.
Stuart Turley [00:16:12] It is possible. And now, like in the US, we just don’t have that.
Tammy Nemeth [00:16:19] So I really like what you showed there about the investment, because I think that’s one of the key things that’s affecting the developing nations, and that tends to be the people who are making up the, the, the BRICS sort of trading bloc. And it’s to have this investment without these strings attached. Because, you know, when you look at sort of like the IMF and the world Bank, they don’t want to fund things that could be considered bad for climate, for example. So let’s say they wanted to build reliable energy systems. They wouldn’t be able to get the financing for it. So here’s Russia, part of the BRICS saying we’ll help Ethiopia build nuclear and perhaps maybe other things.
Stuart Turley [00:17:05] Oh, absolutely. And and having that rather than the BRICS and Road Initiative, take a look at the BRICS and the road initiative around the world.
Tammy Nemeth [00:17:13] Belton Road, the Belt Road.
Stuart Turley [00:17:16] Thank you. It’s now going to be Brixton Road. Thanks for listening to this podcast. For the Belt and Road Initiative, also take a look at. Land power versus sea power. I’ve been doing all these podcasts with George Macmillan, a very knowledgeable cat, and he he really points out things like Panama. China has put in sea ports on each end of the Panama Canal and infinite infiltrated totally Panama. And you’re about to see that just heat up. There is now a war with, I believe it’s 90,000 dockworkers being funded by the Chinese down there. It’s going to get pretty entertaining down there. And if they’re not paying attention to the gentleman name President Trump, they he could like go in and buy according to the treaty, take control of the Panama Canal. So it’s going to be pretty interesting. But when you have let me show this one clip, if you don’t mind, Tammy of. Some of the regulatory issues in the United States. This is Elon Musk talking about regulatory issues in Wales.
Video Speaker Elon Musk [00:18:34] Funny, I did this. You know, we have to do this. SpaceX had to do a study to see if Starship would hit a shark. And I’m like, that’s a big ocean, you know. There’s a lot of sharks. It’s not impossible, but it’s very unlikely. We said, okay, fine. We’ll do the analysis and then we’ll. Can you give us the shark data? They’re like, no, we can’t give you the shark data. Well, okay. Well, then we’re in a bit of a quandary. How do we solve this? I got this this from shark probability issue. And that’s they said, well, well, we could give it to our Western division, but we don’t trust them. And I’m like, am I in a comedy sketch here? So eventually I think we got the data and we could, you know, run the analysis to say like, yeah, the stocks are going to be fine. But what they would have let us proceed with launch until we did this crazy short data and and then we thought, okay, we’re now we’re done. It but what about whales? I like. When you look at a picture of the Pacific, what percentage of the surface area of the Pacific do you see as well? Because I see a look at a picture. I don’t see any. It’s like you can’t. Where’s the whale? And and honestly, if the ship that hit a whale, it’s like, honestly that well had it coming because it’s like the odds are so low.
Stuart Turley [00:20:00] So when you take a look at the regulatory processes in the United States, I don’t think we’ll be exporting our nuclear capabilities, which is a shame because that builds trade and we bring in trade expertise, and then you develop electricity in the grid and those kind of things and allow Africa to do their manufacturing there and then sell finished products. Oh, you’ve got a trading partner now. And that’s where both of you get elevated. That ain’t going to happen though with us. I think it’s going to happen.
Irina Slav [00:20:37] Maybe it will at some point.
Stuart Turley [00:20:39] I hope so.
David Blackmon [00:20:42] So to me, one thing that’s going to be really interesting in all of this talk about BRICS is what happens with Saudi Arabia, because Saudi Arabia has been very interested in coming in to BRICS during the Biden years because, you know. How to put this nicely, Joe Biden did pretty much everything he could to destroy America’s relationship with Saudi Arabia over the past four years with his stupid, idiotic fist bump thing and insulting the crown prince and all of that. Now, you know you have a president who has a strong relationship with the crown prince in this and the Saudi House of Saud family, and and is going to rebuild all of that. And you wonder, you know, Saudi Arabia’s a big player, not just in oil, but, you know, economically in general. And you wonder what the what impact that will have on the kingdom’s desires to become part of BRICS. I don’t think it has any pressing need to become part of BRICS. If the US government is not going to be, you know, working at cross-purposes with it, and this administration won’t be. So I you know, I just think that that, you know, we all anticipated Saudi Arabia comes in a BRICS. That would mean BRICS controls more oil production as an entity than OPEC. And so, you know, that’s a pretty big deal. And it if you consider BRICS to be? A basically a trade alliance, which is I think it’s correct to say that’s what it is and not much else that would really enhance the strength of BRICS compared to, you know, its ability to compete with, say, the G7. And so, you know, all of this is going to be so fascinating to watch. I think by the end of this year, we’re going to have a pretty good feel about how it’s all going to shake out. But, you know, it’s it’s all changed so radically now. The geopolitical equations. The relationships with the Trump administration instead of Biden. It’s really hard to know right now how it’s all going to shake out. But it feels to me like that it’s a detriment to BRICSs just because of the strengthening of the alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia. So that for what it’s worth, and oil is such a big piece of the global trade equation. And I just forward everybody into silence.
Irina Slav [00:23:32] No you didn’t. I can’t hear Tammy Tammy saying something. But we kind of.
David Blackmon [00:23:36] Muted I guess.
Tammy Nemeth [00:23:40] Okay. Can you hear me now.
Irina Slav [00:23:42] Yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:23:43] So I, I, Irina I’m wondering what what your take is on that that idea that maybe the, the BRICS will just focus on trade won’t, you know, kind of pursue the more political stuff and that this will be a detriment to the BRICS organization. I’m kind of the opinion that actually if, if, if it’s about trade then this will, this could enhance the trade relationships. Not. Not just because of what? What the United States is doing, just because there’s a natural sort of engagement there that’s been developing. But I don’t know, maybe maybe I’m just out there.
Irina Slav [00:24:27] Yeah. I think they should stick with with the trade. Really? I don’t know what the ambitions were during the Biden administration, but now this administration is gone. And while we can’t be certain what comes after Trump. We, as David said by the end of the year, will be pretty clear about what to expect from the next three years.
David Blackmon [00:24:55] One that you have no idea.
Irina Slav [00:24:57] Yeah. And I think they if they really do this, they have no reason to to go more political than, than trade with Trump. They really have no reason for this. And that’s. That’s good. Yeah. You know, they should stick to the trade. And and David, you you write about Saudi Arabia without Saudi Arabia the the drove the expansion of Briggs will. So that’s not necessarily a bad thing. I’m not opposed to Briggs. But if they have, you know, the chance to take a little time off thanks to Trump, it would be good for them, you know, rushing into things, as we have seen with the European Union, I’m sure the BRICS leaders have seen it too, is not the smart way to go about, you know, any sort of radical change.
David Blackmon [00:25:55] That can erase one more wild card for BRICS.
Tammy Nemeth [00:25:58] Sure.
David Blackmon [00:25:58] And that is that next year there’s a presidential election in Brazil and oh, yeah, yeah, And in the CIA, which played such a big role in electing Lula government to begin with, won’t be doing that. In 2026, the Bolsonaro is going to run again. And so the US is ability. I mean, John Ratcliffe, the director of CIA, is not going to have his agency try to rig the election in Brazil. And I think it’s highly likely it makes it highly likely that the Brazilian government is going to change back to a more conservative government. And I don’t know that that necessarily does anything to really diminish the influence of BRICS globally. But what it will do, Bolsonaro, his elected president again, there is really strengthened Brazil’s relations with the United States. And so I just think that that’s, you know, something that could have a significant impact on BRICS and its cohesion as a trade alliance after 2026.
Tammy Nemeth [00:27:14] That’s an excellent point. And stew, if I could get your take on that and also to the to everybody, what about Turkey? Because Turkey is still trying to become a full member as part of the sort of well, the EU doesn’t want us, we should join BRICS and be able to have this better trading relationship or maybe a political arrangement, whatever. And so Turkey’s a very interesting piece of that puzzle. So, Stu, what’s your take on what David said about Brazil and, and maybe some comments on what what’s up with Turkey.
Stuart Turley [00:27:52] And it’s a good thing we got another six hours to go on this podcast that just opened up. Holy smokes Batman can worms. Now let’s start with David’s wonderful comment about the CIA with Pam Bondi, Kash Patel and all of the others, wrote Ratcliffe. You take a look at Tulsi Gabbard. Everybody else is rolling in under the President Trump. That ain’t going to happen. And then you have Dan Bongino. Holy smokes Batman. He is now the deputy director of the FBI. I’m over here doing zoomies. I guarantee you I’m over here going, yay! Because it is going to be eradicated. And I guarantee you, if I was Adam Schiff, I would be worried if there was a deep state member out there. These people know who they are. Now that who said, what does it have to do with Turkey? And so starting in Brazil, because I don’t think they have any, you know, impacts going on because any anybody who is breaking the law will now face the law. Regardless, Republican or Democrat anymore, I think we now have a good one. And I think that. And then when you sit back and take a look, let’s go to Turkey. The Turkstream pipeline is pumping as much gas as molecules as it can stuff in at one end, and they’re trying to stuff in more as much as they possibly can. Turkey has been wanting to become the natural gas hub of the entire Middle East. That’s their number one goal because that transit piped in. We saw this with Ukraine. Ukraine had 5% of their GDP. Was that one pipeline in Ukraine pumping that Russian natural gas? You open up a can of worms, Tammy, with this one. And that is I think that the number one thing that people are excited about and the global European natural gas market is already pricing in an end to the Ukraine war, and they’re assuming that they’re going to be able to start buying Russian cheap Russian natural gas again. So you’re going to see that come around, and that is going to delay any leadership that Turkey’s trying to do because of how it plays out. Now what you are seeing is that Russia has a new whole new train line that they’ve been working on for several years. We have Mexico putting in a new canal system putting in. And so the land power versus sea power and trade issues are coming in. And I’ve been spending a lot of time on how all this is going to be impacted.
Tammy Nemeth [00:30:56] Okay. That’s really interesting about the I know turkey with the with the natural gas hub. And that’s one of the big things with, with what was happening in Syria and whatnot. And, and so it’ll be it’ll be interesting to see how this develops over the next few years. If I could just go, can you put up messy times when I’m in 75%? Yeah. Federal Leviathan. So my sense is that with by reducing all the government interference in stuff, it allows companies to do what they do best, which is make their own trade agreement arrangements in other countries and look for ways to, to enter different access, different jurisdictions. That’s my sense of it. But David I arena, what do you think about our exports going to change significantly with the federal Leviathan being pared back?
Irina Slav [00:31:56] I wouldn’t know.
David Blackmon [00:31:59] Well, I think he’s right that we’re going to see 75% of the federal Leviathan scale back during this administration. If it isn’t apparent to everyone by now, you need to pay closer attention. This is this is going to be a lot more aggressive administration, I think, than anyone in the Democratic Party imagined it might be. And they’re going to really scale dramatically, scale back the scope and scale of the United States government domestically. And that’s going to mean the freeing up of American companies to do business overseas, but do it in a way, you know, in a way that’s going to have to be impacted by Trump’s efforts to even out the tariffs, watch all these other countries, which is going to be a hell of a big undertaking because, you know, the United States. And I’m not whining about it. I mean, it’s just the agreements we made in post-World War Two, as you know, has faced a lot of very heavy tariff situations from other countries that have not been equalized by our country. And if Trump is really going to do that, then the whole equation, global equation on trade is going to be radically changed. And that’s probably, at least in Trump’s mind, is going to free up a lot of opportunity for US companies to engage in very favorable trade. So I and, you know, and and many times who is I think most if not all of us are acquainted with Christopher Messina is involved in all this. And he he knows what he’s talking about. And he’s not just saying these things to have fun.
Tammy Nemeth [00:33:49] Yeah. That’s interesting. So many times, says my prediction. By January 2026, all of our trading partners will have zero tariffs for our exports and zero imports for them to sell into America. So yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:34:05] I want to give Christopher Mason a shout out. Here’s his book. I had a fantastic podcast with him. I don’t know if he’s still listening or not, but I want him back because I’m in. I’m setting up a whole new series of interviews for Republicans that are interviewing and trying to primary out rhinos.
David Blackmon [00:34:29] They get the title of Christopher’s book.
Stuart Turley [00:34:31] Oh yeah, Messina’s federal budget.
David Blackmon [00:34:35] Yeah, you can, you can. I think you can find it on Amazon. I’m pretty sure.
Stuart Turley [00:34:39] Yeah. Oh yeah, it’s on Amazon. But anyway, so he I want him to also help interview any Republicans that are running so that they have some really good questions and and things like that. So anyway.
Irina Slav [00:34:56] Okay.
Tammy Nemeth [00:34:57] All right. So should we move on to the headlines for today.
Stuart Turley [00:35:03] there we go.
Tammy Nemeth [00:35:04] Okay. So I guess I’m going first. So this story came out a few days ago that our illustrious Ed Miliband, who’s the secretary for Energy and climate change, whatever, who wants to put up solar panels and wind turbines all over the beautiful British countryside and throw people in jail who disagree? So he’s recruited three Extinction Rebellion cheerleaders. Now, it’s unclear whether or not they actually were members of Extinction Rebellion, but one of the people was the lawyer who led a successful court challenge against the Metropolitan Police when it tried to ban Extinction Rebellion from staging disruptive protests in London. Then another person he hired is a writer and activist who talked about how amazingly successful Extinction Rebellion was in disrupting the lives of people, and how they had been a great accelerator for activism. So she’s another cheerleader who will be writing. I assume she’ll be writing speeches or something for Mr. Miliband. And then the last person taking a page out of the American book. Keir Starmer has appointed a climate envoy, and this climate envoy is Rachel Kyte. And Rachel Kyte is a professor of practice and climate policy at the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford. And she is dean emerita of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts. And she often. Does the moderating for various World Economic Forum sessions and Bloomberg sessions and whatnot. So, you know, it’s interesting that that they chose her to be this climate envoy. And she also used to be served as the vice president and special envoy for climate change at the world Bank. So greatly connected and all the the right things to be part of Mr. Miliband department and climate envoy to go around to different international jurisdictions and flog the the concept of net zero and climate change. So yes, that’s that’s what the UK is, is up to right now.
David Blackmon [00:37:36] This is just this is the people that are being shoved out of the EPA right now in the United States. So, you know.
Tammy Nemeth [00:37:44] Great. They’ll be coming here.
David Blackmon [00:37:47] Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:37:47] I hear drum carries.
Irina Slav [00:37:50] So small, man. They didn’t hire that. The co-founder of Extinction Rebellion, Roger Hallam. Was that his surname? the man
Tammy Nemeth [00:38:03] in jail. I think he’s in jail.
Irina Slav [00:38:04] Still in jail? So that’s why they didn’t hire him? Oh I see. Well, that.
David Blackmon [00:38:11] He did, he replayed a mean tweet or something. Is that where he got put in jail?
Tammy Nemeth [00:38:16] No, I think it was for one of the. One of the disruptions. I’m not sure.
Irina Slav [00:38:26] The successful disruptions.
Tammy Nemeth [00:38:28] The successful ones.
Irina Slav [00:38:30] Yes. Yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:38:31] He gets right. He got he felt he was found guilty of conspiring to block traffic on one of the busiest motorways in England. I guess. So he got. Yeah. So that was last year. Was it last summer? I want to say I think it was in July that he was found guilty. So I’m not really sure how much time he’s got, but I thought he was still in jail. I could be wrong. I don’t know, but.
Stuart Turley [00:39:03] I was on your Nemeth Report. I highly recommend everybody go out to the Nemeth Report dot substack.com. And I love your podcast, What Women Want for the Energy Transformation. That was an excellent podcast.
Tammy Nemeth [00:39:20] And yeah, thank you for for the shout out Tracy Bodner check from Canada Powered by Women. We had a great conversation about some polling data that they’ve done about how women view the energy transformation and what what they want, which is, you know, energy security. Go figure. And affordable prices. So it was it was really great discussion. Thanks. Thanks for for plugging that.
Stuart Turley [00:39:47] Great.
Tammy Nemeth [00:39:50] Okay David.
David Blackmon [00:39:51] Oh here we go. So this one Trump cancels U.S. participation in IPCC. This happened last Friday and barely got notice in the news media. Only Reuters and one other legacy outlet bothered to even report on it. But Trump canceled U.S. participation in ongoing construction of this year’s the, the newest iteration of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report that serves as the Bible for, you know, all the climate religions, dogma every, every year. And so this this is big news. I mean, this is a big deal. United States has participated in this, led the effort in some years since its inception, which was, I think, late 80s or early 90s, maybe 1990. And and it’s a really big deal. And it’s amazing to me that there hasn’t been more of a blowback in the media about it. It is a suspension, not a complete cancellation of participation. While the Trump administration reviews whether or not the United States should participate in the future. Frankly, I think it’s going to end up becoming a final cancellation of U.S. participation since we we pulled out of the Paris climate accord. And and with any luck, it’ll also to serve as a precursor to the end of U.S. participation and funding for the United Nations as a whole. That’s my.
Stuart Turley [00:41:35] Yay. Yay! Sorry, I’m zooming
David Blackmon [00:41:42] That’ll happen. But, you know, we can always dream anyway, so.
Stuart Turley [00:41:45] I think we ought to throw the U.N. out of the United States and throw in stop funding the UN because the U.N. is a bunch of criminals.
David Blackmon [00:41:57] Well, there is that. Yes.
Stuart Turley [00:42:00] Okay. Sorry. Did I just do a zoom? I’m sorry.
David Blackmon [00:42:04] So there’s that. And then there’s another story, I think. What is this one? Oh, yes.
David Blackmon [00:42:11] So here we are in the Trump administration in the early days. And then what is the American Petroleum Institute doing. It is urging President Trump to retain the section 45, the hydrogen credit from the Orwellian and the Inflation Reduction Act. API, of course, is the big oil trade association that represents companies like Exxon Mobil, BP, shell, Chevron and the large independent producers in the United States are also there. But the companies that really direct what API advocates for are the major oil companies, the integrated oil companies. And and when you look at the reasons why AP is advocating for this, well, I mean, you know, Exxon Mobil is establishing is no secret a blue hydrogen hub in Beaumont at its sorry, at its Baytown refinery, which is one of the biggest oil refineries in the United States. And ExxonMobil is is going to be making hydrogen that’s going to be used to power the operations of the refinery, but also a big portion of it’s going to be converted into ammonia to be used in fertilizer manufacturing and shipped overseas, because Baytown Refinery is right on the Houston Ship Channel. So it’s very easy to load ships with ammonia and export it overseas and for use in fertilizers. And ExxonMobil believes that can be a profitable enterprise for their company. And, you know, BP, Shell and Chevron also were involved to varying degrees in hydrogen development and most of it blue hydrogen. I don’t think any of them are in a green hydrogen project. And so what you see here is just kind of, I think, an ironic situation where the oil and gas industry is advocating for retaining this tax credit for hydrogen 45 credit so that they can continue to pursue their hydrogen goals, and in a way that would be ultimately profitable for their shareholders. I’m not going to make a value judgment on it one way or another. But, you know, this is what big oil is doing in the Trump administration. So be that as it may.
Stuart Turley [00:44:32] What is blue hydrogen?
David Blackmon [00:44:35] Blue hydrogen is hydrogen made with natural gas instead of from electrolysis. Process powered by wind or solar.
Stuart Turley [00:44:43] I want to ask, and I don’t know the answer, but if nitrogen is pulled straight from natural gas.
David Blackmon [00:44:54] Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:44:56] I mean, ammonia and and fertilizer and fertilizer made. Sorry. I was thinking to myself, if fertilizer is made straight from night, from natural gas. Anyway, is this another step like. And I don’t know the answer to this. Is this another step in it like ethanol?
David Blackmon [00:45:20] Yeah, sure. It’s another cottage industry. This one ExxonMobil strongly believes will be profitable and wound on par with its oil and gas projects. And, you know, maybe it will be, but it’s only going to be if the 45 the credit is retained. Right. And as we see, as I’ve mentioned earlier, the Trump administration is a lot more aggressive than anyone predicted would be. And we’re seeing in real time. Yeah. And there’s going to be a strong effort to rescind most of what was in the I.R.A.. And so Big Oil is going to lobby to retain this credit. And the investment, the enhanced investment tax credit as well.
Stuart Turley [00:46:06] I have never seen this kind of a news cycle. Oh.
David Blackmon [00:46:12] It is what it is. So, yeah, there’s my Substack where you can read everything I write anywhere ends up being reposted here. And it’s a one stop shopping opportunity.
Tammy Nemeth [00:46:25] Yeah. And I like the energy meme of the day. That’s so awesome.
Stuart Turley [00:46:33] And. All right.
Irina Slav [00:46:36] Oh, both of my stories are about Russia. Oh, well, I’ll be really quick because they’re really obvious stories power sector trends reveal widening divide between EU and Russia ensure the EU is using less energy and their economies are not growing. Russia is using more energy, its emissions are up and its economy is growing despite all the thousands of sanctions. It’s just food for thought. Although the author of this story and praises Europe for being so green and so progressive on its way.
David Blackmon [00:47:13] To Bloomberg story.
Irina Slav [00:47:15] Sorry.
David Blackmon [00:47:16] Is that a Bloomberg story?
Irina Slav [00:47:18] It’s a Reuters story. Will say nothing really. Nearly same thing. Yeah, yeah. No difference. And Europe seeks to replace imported Russian fertilizers with local manure. I addressed this topic today on Substack. So suddenly what cows produce from their rear end is viable. But how this is going to help European fertilizer makers? I’m not sure, because the problem is that Russian fertilizers are cheaper than European fertilizers. Yes. Why? Because of those chimneys on the other story. And obviously European fertilizer makers are unhappy. I would be unhappy if I’m European fertilizer maker because I’m being forced to source some of my energy from so-called renewable sources, which makes my product more expensive. So obviously farmers will go to the cheaper products, Including most Polish farmers, regardless of their political opinions of Russia, and told us so to reduce reliance on Russian fertilizers instead of simply sanctioning them. Which would have been the obvious move for European food, you know, officials, which is what they’ve done with so many other things, but strangely, not with fertilizers. So they’re going to do manure and a special kind of manure called renewal.
Tammy Nemeth [00:48:55] Renewal. I know.
Irina Slav [00:48:57] Yeah. Which is reclaimed or recovered with. Nitrogen from, from renew, which will have specifically and deliberately reduced nitrogen contents.
Stuart Turley [00:49:16] Renew her. Yeah.
Irina Slav [00:49:18] You want to give farmers nitrogen fertilizer because they need it. But you’re going to reduce the nitrogen content of this fertilizer to avoid all of this recession with nitrogen. And I can feel my headache again starting.
Stuart Turley [00:49:38] Your setup is phenomenal, by the way. I absolutely love it.
Irina Slav [00:49:44] Yeah, it.
Stuart Turley [00:49:44] Probably buddy needs to subscribe to Irina Slav dot Substack.
Irina Slav [00:49:50] These people have said sorry Stu. They are absurd. They have no idea what they are doing.
Tammy Nemeth [00:49:59] Well, not just that. It’s like on the one hand they’re saying farmers have to reduce the amount of effluent coming from their livestock and they need to cull the livestock, you know, because of emissions. But now we’re going to use that manure that they’re trying to get rid of. Yep. To fertilize the fields. You know, they’ve tried using manure before. Before the the process that created our, you know, manmade fertilizer. And they would scour the, the, the earth for back guano and because the, the manure wasn’t good enough. And so this is just like you say, it’s absurd. It’s madness to want to be doing
Irina Slav [00:50:41] Manure is great. It’s really wonderful. My neighbors use just manure, no synthetic fertilizers. And the plants are they’re vegetables are great, but it’s hard work to, you know, it has to be prepared. It has to mature or whatever it’s called. It’s not as easy to use as synthetic fertilizers, which is why you have synthetic fertilizers. And there will never, ever be enough manure so entirely replace even the 30%. 80%. Yeah. Of, you know, fertilizer market that belongs to to Russian and Belarusian imports. It’s insane.
David Blackmon [00:51:25] So so this raises an even more absurd possibility in my mind. And that is, you know, Bill gates has succeeded in making artificial meat, right. So how long before we see that he’s funding a project to make artificial cow pies, to enhance the natural, the supply of natural gas.
Irina Slav [00:51:50] It really succeed with the meat? Did he?
David Blackmon [00:51:58] No. Not the United States that you. I don’t know about the results, but that stuff did not sell anyway.
Tammy Nemeth [00:52:05] Well, one of the interesting things with Renewer is that they have these different reports saying how they can promote a safe use of it. So what are they saying? It’s not safe. I mean.
David Blackmon [00:52:16] Yeah, it’s hazardous. It’s not used properly.
Tammy Nemeth [00:52:20] I wonder if they’re going to combine it with human waste. Because right now they do the math. Seriously? They permit human waste to be done.
Irina Slav [00:52:30] Yeah. Oh, waste free.
Stuart Turley [00:52:32] Yeah.
Tammy Nemeth [00:52:33] And I’m like, okay, you’re using human waste. But what kind of filtering is being done to get rid of pharmaceuticals? You know, when people are on different drugs and stuff and then that gets into the I don’t know if, but they need to be a little more.
Stuart Turley [00:52:52] Wow.
Tammy Nemeth [00:52:53] Another rabbit hole to go down. Maybe Robert Kennedy will do some research into that I don’t know.
Irina Slav [00:52:58] Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:52:59] And your Substack. I love listening to your articles. I know when you have your Substack, it is absolutely wonderful.
Irina Slav [00:53:09] Thank you.
Stuart Turley [00:53:12] All right.
Tammy Nemeth [00:53:15] Stu.
Stuart Turley [00:53:15] These are a couple great stories. And we’re seeing that LNG with Trump’s tariffs as we talked about this earlier Tammy in the show is that. Canada has a 200% tax on U.S. agriculture. There are trade. The EU has you know the European countries have I believe it’s a 10% tax on the cars. I have to go look it up. So by President Trump using tariffs and saying, hey, I’m willing to balance tariffs. Yay I’m doing a zooming I’m always doing zoomies today for some reason. If anybody doesn’t know what a zoom he is, I have an explanation for it. But what that is, is I think that you’re going to see a total Reworking in U.S. exports of energy is Trump’s ace in the hole. We saw this. I believe it last. Was it last week? I’m in such a time warp with the news cycle. With Japan. They’re already starting to try to get more U.S. LNG from Alaska. And you take a look at this map. This article, it was an outstanding article talking about how the whole LNG cutter is going to be doubling. And put it really putting it out there. We’re going to be expanding, but there’s going to be a limitation. The one thing I will say is I believe that we are going to be long term. Change is being implemented by the Trump administration. I don’t think there will be a chance for the deep state to survive this, just in my opinion. But let me show you what a zoom is. Just real quickly. Yes. I see this now. This is me when I realize that. And Bronzino is now the deputy director of the office. This is me now realizing we have a chance of getting energy passed down when Chris Wright was. Okay, this is this is me running around the house going, hey, Chris Wright. I think? Also, you’re pretending that they had a confirm, which.
Irina Slav [00:55:59] Is the cat watching the dogs right now? Tammy. Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:56:07] Like this. Okay. That’s. That’s. And here we go. So I think that we’re, we’re we’re seeing zoomies. And I get excited. And then y’all know that I’m mentally challenged. And I think that we’re going to see a LNG used as a trade incentive for energy exports. I would like to see the President Trump’s administration notch up our exports so that we export our technologies for building nuclear plants, for building these things, so that we can enable countries to do their own things and have long term trade partners. I would rather build a a nuclear facility in Africa. And then that way you have a long term trade partner and they build in Africa. I mean, it just makes sense to me. But. The most wonderful thing Dodge has done for Americans show how data scientists can simply go to the right payments data to give Americans insight to how the cash is shoveled out the door. This absolutely frightens me. I love your cats. Speaking of cats.
David Blackmon [00:57:24] They destroyed USAID in about three days doing that.
Stuart Turley [00:57:28] Oh, yeah. Again, Christopher, you are right on target and I want to the last minute here. I just want to show this one thing I want to give Italian Prime Minister. I’m.
Video Speaker PM Giorgia Meloni [00:57:41] Donald Trump leading the United States. We will never again see the disaster we saw in Afghanistan four years ago. So border security, border security, energy security, economic security, food security, defense and national security for a simple reason. If you are not secure, you are not free. And when freedom is at risk, the only thing you can do is to put it in the wiser hands. That is why conservatives keep on growing and are becoming more and more influential in European politics. And that is why the left is nervous. And with Trump’s victory, their irritation has turned into hysteria. Not only because conservatives are winning, because conservatives are now collaborating globally. When Bill Clinton and Tony Blair created the global leftist liberal network in the 90s. They were called statesmen. Today, when Trump, Meloni, Millay or maybe Modi talk, they are called a threat to democracy. This is the last double standard what we used today. We are used to it. And the good news is people no longer believe in their lies, despite all the mud they throw at us. Citizens keep voting for us because simply people are not naive as well as the last considers them. They vote for us because we defend freedom. We love our nations. We want secure borders. We preserve businesses and citizens from the green leftist insanity. We defend family life. We fight against wokeism. We protect our sacred right to our fate and our free speech. And we stand for common sense.
Stuart Turley [00:59:53] And then you see me. Okay.
David Blackmon [01:00:00] He’s magnificent. I don’t care what anybody says.
Stuart Turley [01:00:05] I think Messy Times loves her. Anyway, it was a great, great job, Tammy. And you’re on mute again.
David Blackmon [01:00:15] Oh we Muted Tammy again.
Tammy Nemeth [01:00:17] Yeah that was my cat
Stuart Turley [01:00:21] Loved my zoomies. So that is pretty funny.
Tammy Nemeth [01:00:25] Yeah. She was not sure she was putting her $0.02 in there which was kind of funny. Well thank you everyone for the for the awesome comments today. And I hope we sort of try to dissect a little bit about the future of BRICS, but who knows, time will tell. We’re not. We’re gazing into the crystal ball and who knows what will come in the next six months, 12 months, 18 months. So thank you everyone.
Stuart Turley [01:00:50] So you guys next week.
Tammy Nemeth [01:00:52] Have a great week. Bye
Sponsorships are available or get your own corporate brand produced by Sandstone Media.
