Dwindling copper supply from Panama and Peru could wipe out global surplus in 2024

Energy News Beat

Reduced supply from major copper producers Panama and Peru may flip the global copper market into a deficit from surplus in 2024 or at least tighten oversupply if the disruptions are not resolved in coming months, analysts said on Tuesday.

Panama’s top court on Tuesday ruled that Canadian miner First Quantum’s contract to operate the Cobre Panama mine there is unconstitutional, while a union representing half of the workers at Peru’s Las Bambas mine went on strike.

If the Cobre Panama mine were to be permanently shut, then the market could easily move into deficit in 2024, said Macquarie analyst Alice Fox.

However, if it is out of operation only until Panama’s May 2024 presidential election, it would mean a loss of around 40,000 tons of copper this year and 160,000 tons next year, according to her estimate.

“This could result in a small deficit this year but the market should be able to absorb the loss next year and remain in surplus, albeit a smaller one. This could provide some support to prices next year,” she added.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.4% to $8,480 a metric ton by 1721 GMT. Reuters‘ November poll of analysts forecast an oversupply at 302,500 tons of copper in 2024.

Bank of America’s 2024 base-case scenario sees the global copper market surplus at 150,000 metric tons, said analyst Michael Widmer. That includes 370,000 tons from Cobre Panama, 200,000 tons of production increase from Las Bambas and incorporates a 6% disruption allowance.

“So losing any of these tonnages might well take us closer to a deficit,” Widmer said.

Copper, used in power and construction, is widely expected to benefit from the green energy transition in coming years, however it is up just 1.2% so far in 2023 amid patchy post-pandemic recovery of top metals consumer China and concerns about economic growth elsewhere.

“Participation in the copper market has been slim. This could be the trigger for some longer-term investors to come in, especially given the deficit calls for the back half of this decade are now being brought forward,” said Al Munro at broker Marex.

Source: Mining.com

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Cold weather prompts National Grid to activate energy blackout scheme

Energy News Beat

The National Grid is to pay some households to cut their energy use after activating its blackout prevention scheme during the current cold snap.

Eligible properties with smart meters will be offered cash and other rewards in return for reducing their usage between 5pm and 6.30pm on Wednesday, it has been announced.

It marks the first time the Live Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) has been activated this autumn and winter.

A spokesperson for the National Grid ESO (electricity system operator) said: “Our forecasts show electricity supply margins are expected to be tighter than normal on Wednesday evening.

“It does not mean electricity supplies are at risk and people should not be worried.

“These are precautionary measures to maintain the buffer of spare capacity we need.”

Sky News understands the scheme has been activated partly in response to the ongoing cold weather across much of the UK.

Forecasters have warned the UK could be hit by snow and ice in places over the coming days.

The scheme started in 2022 in the wake of Europe’s gas squeeze caused by the war in Ukraine.

More than 1.6 million households and businesses have been involved so far.

The amount paid to customers varies depending on their circumstances and regular energy use.

Eligible households do not have to turn off all electricity – including their lights – during a DFS period.

Instead they are urged to shut down appliances such as washing machines which can use high quantities of energy. Participation is also optional.

The scheme is estimated to have saved more than 3,300MWh of electricity across 22 activations in 2022, which is enough to power around 10 million homes for an hour.

Source: News.sky.com

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Auto Dealers Call on Biden to Hit Brakes on Unrealistic, Unachievable Electric Vehicles Mandate

Energy News Beat

A coalition of nearly 4,000 auto dealers on Tuesday sent a letter to President Joe Biden explaining why his plans to force Americans into electric vehicles are unworkable.

The bottom line: Despite subsidies to car manufacturers to make the EVs, and tax credits for drivers to buy the cars, only 7% of new vehicle sales are electric vehicles, compared with Biden’s goal of 60% in 2030 and 66% in 2032.

The auto dealers wrote that “the supply of unsold [battery electric vehicles] is surging, as they are not selling nearly as fast as they are arriving at our dealerships—even with deep price cuts, manufacturer incentives, and generous government incentives.”

Their letter follows the announcement last month from GM and Ford that they are cutting back on projections of EV sales and lowering production targets for the cars and batteries because Americans prefer to buy other cars.

Ford Chief Financial Officer John Lawler, who postponed $12 billion in EV investments, said, “Given the dynamic EV environment, we are being judicious about our production and adjusting future capacity to better match market demand.” Similarly, GM described “evolving EV demand” as a reason for slowing production of electric pickup trucks.

Ford and GM describe EV demand as “dynamic” and “evolving,“ but in reality, it is static and devolving.

Auto dealers are getting stuck with the unwanted cars. Dealers have to pay in advance, and if the cars sit on the lots without being sold, their funds are tied up, and they don’t have room for better-selling vehicles.

Because Congress will not pass laws mandating purchases of EVs, Biden has proposed regulations from the Department of Transportation and the Environmental Protection Agency. These regulations would penalize automakers for selling gasoline-powered cars. California is going further, requiring all new-vehicle sales to be electric after 2035.

But, as the dealers say in their letter, “Some customers are in the market for electric vehicles, and we are thrilled to sell them. But the majority of customers are simply not ready to make the change.”

There are reasons that most Americans prefer to buy cars with internal combustion engines. The primary one cited is the difficulty of charging while on long trips or in homes that don’t have charging stations.

Most people who love their EVs recharge them at home overnight. But not everyone has a garage at home. Some live in apartments and homes without garages. Many of those people have to rely on charging stations for their EVs if they can’t run extension cords from their residences to the parking lot.

There are few charging stations in rural areas, where driving distances are longer.

Also, while gasoline-powered cars can be refueled in five or 10 minutes at a gas station, recharging an electric vehicle can take 45 minutes or longer for a full charge. Wait times are longer if someone else is at the charging station, and if some charging stations are out of order. Most people don’t want to let their EV battery go below 20%, and the charging rate goes down when it is charged over 80%.

In addition, batteries lose range in cold weather. A study by truck manufacturer Autocar shows that electric vehicles lose, on average, a third of their range in the winter, which reduces the typical 240-mile range to 160 miles. If a heat pump is added to the car, the loss is less, but still, the 240-mile range would shrink to 180. Only 380 North Dakota residents chose EVs in 2021, and Alaska had just 1,300.

New electric vehicles also cost more than gasoline-powered vehicles. The electric version of the base version of the Ford F-150 pickup truck, the best-selling vehicle in America, costs an additional $26,000. And Tesla’s base prices start at about $40,000 for a Model 3 and go up to almost $100,000 for a Model X.

Few Americans can afford these vehicles.

Dealers also cite lack of minerals available for EV batteries as a reason for pausing on the push for electrification. China has most of the minerals for batteries, and almost 80% of batteries are made in China. China is buying up many of the world’s mines where rare earth minerals used in batteries are found.

The forced push to EVs is making America weaker and China stronger.

Should Biden’s EV goal come to pass, America would become more dependent on China for electric batteries and associated components, rather than using abundant domestic oil and natural gas. That means sacrificing energy independence.

The Biden administration’s push for EVs is to supposedly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But in order to produce supplies of batteries for EVs and other components, China is increasing its construction of coal-fired power plants. America has 225 coal-fired power plants (which the Biden administration is trying to put out of business), and China has 1,118 (half of all the coal-fired plants in the world).

Research by Kevin Dayaratna, chief statistician and senior research fellow at The Heritage Foundation, has shown that even completely eliminating all fossil fuels from the United States would result in less than 0.2 of a degree Celsius in temperature mitigation by the year 2100. (The Daily Signal is the news outlet of The Heritage Foundation.)

Biden says that EVs will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and that regulations on tailpipe and power plant emissions reduce global warming. But that’s a fantasy. Emissions will not be reduced until the biggest producers of so-called greenhouse gases—China, India, and Russia—reduce their emissions, which they show no signs of doing.

The dealers conclude their letter: “Mr. President, it is time to tap the brakes on the unrealistic government electric vehicle mandate. Allow time for the battery technology to advance. Allow time to make [battery electric vehicles] more affordable. Allow time to develop domestic sources for the minerals to make batteries.”

They are speaking not only for themselves, but for the vast majority of American drivers.

Source: Dailysignal.com

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Royal Caribbean takes delivery of LNG-powered giant in Finland

Energy News Beat

Royal Caribbean International, a unit of Royal Caribbean, has taken delivery of its LNG-powered Icon of the Seas from Finland’s Meyer Turku.

After 900 days of design and construction by thousands of experts, Royal Caribbean International welcomed the highly anticipated Icon of the Seas to the family on November 27, it said in a statement.

Meyer Turku started building this vessel in June 2021, and laid the keel in April 2022.

The unit of Meyer Werft launched Royal Caribbean International’s 365 meters long Icon of the Seas in December last year.

In June, the vessel completed its first sea trials and recently wrapped up its second sea trials.

Royal Caribbean International and Meyer Turku claim this is the world’s largest cruise ship.

The cruise company said the vessel’s maiden voyage is scheduled to be in January 2024, when it will set sail from Miami for a week-long cruise in the Caribbean.

Icon of the Seas is also the cruise line’s first ship that can be powered by LNG.

This new Icon Class series of ships will comprise three luxury liners with a tonnage of about 250,800 GT and enough room for up to 5,610 passengers.

Meyer Turku plans to deliver the second vessel in 2025, followed by the third ship in 2026.

Besides these vessels, Royal Caribbean International has also an LNG-powered ship under construction at French shipbuilder Chantiers de l’Atlantique.

Source: Lngprime.com

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UAE officially stops using dollar for oil trades

Energy News Beat

The global financial landscape is witnessing a seismic shift as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) boldly moves away from the US dollar in its oil trade dealings.

This strategic pivot aligns with the broader ambitions of the BRICS economic alliance, of which the UAE is a recent addition.

The changeover, involving the transition to local currencies for oil transactions, marks a significant departure from the long-established dollar dominance in the global oil market.

The BRICS Influence and UAE’s Strategic Shift

The BRICS bloc, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, recently expanded its membership to include the UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and Argentina.

This expansion signifies a growing inclination towards de-dollarization among these nations, a move that challenges the traditional hegemony of the US dollar in international trade.

The UAE’s decision to prioritize local currency over the US dollar in new oil deals is a clear reflection of this sentiment. This move isn’t just a mere policy shift; it’s a strategic maneuver in the complex chess game of global economics.

By aligning with the BRICS nations, the UAE is not only diversifying its economic partnerships but also reinforcing its position as a global oil powerhouse.

This change could potentially reshuffle the cards in the international oil trade, impacting the dollar’s stronghold and introducing a new era of currency dynamics in oil transactions.

A New Era in Global Oil Trade

The UAE’s proactive search for new oil trading partners is a testament to its agility and foresight in navigating the evolving economic landscape. The significance of this move cannot be overstated.

It’s not just a matter of switching currencies; it’s about altering the very fabric of international oil trade. The potential ripple effects on the US dollar could be substantial, marking a shift in the global economic power balance.

Reports indicate that the UAE is eyeing potential oil and gas deals with up to 15 countries, including heavyweights like China, Russia, and Egypt, all of whom are members of the BRICS alliance and advocates of de-dollarization.

This isn’t just about diversifying trade; it’s about making a statement on the global stage. The UAE is not just following a trend – it’s setting one.

The move by the UAE to embrace local currencies in oil trades is not an isolated event. It’s part of a larger narrative where nations are increasingly questioning the status quo and exploring alternatives that better serve their economic interests.

This trend towards de-dollarization, particularly in crucial sectors like oil, could herald a new chapter in global economics, one where diversity in currency use in trade becomes the norm rather than the exception.

Bottomline is the UAE’s decision to transition from the US dollar to local currencies in its oil trades is a bold and strategic move that reflects the changing dynamics of the global economic landscape.

This shift, driven by the broader ambitions of the BRICS alliance, could have far-reaching implications for the dominance of the US dollar in international trade.

As the UAE forges new partnerships and navigates this evolving terrain, it positions itself not just as a key player in the oil market, but also as a trailblazer in the movement towards a more diversified and dynamic global economy.

Source: Msn.com

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Delfin seals long-term LNG supply deal with Gunvor

Energy News Beat

Delfin Midstream, the US developer of a floating LNG export project in the Gulf of Mexico, has signed a long-term liquefied natural gas supply deal with a unit of Geneva-based energy and LNG trader, Gunvor.

Delfin LNG, a unit of Delfin Midstream, and Gunvor Singapore entered into the LNG sale and purchase agreement, according to a statement by Delfin Midstream.

Under the SPA, Delfin LNG will supply between 0.5 to 1.0 million tonnes of LNG per year to Gunvor on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the planned Delfin Deepwater Port, located offthe coast of Louisiana for a minimum duration of 15 years.

Dudley Poston, CEO of Delfin, welcomed the signing of a “major” long-term LNG supply agreement with Gunvor.

This latest sale and purchase agreement “further demonstrates our attractiveness” as a long-term source of LNG, he said.

“We continue to support US LNG projects and unlock new sources to meet the growing global LNG demand while further expanding our supply portfolio,” Kalpesh Patel, co-head of LNG trading of Gunvor, said.

Delfin plans to install up to four self-propelled FLNG vessels that could produce up to 13.3 mtpa of LNG or 1.7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas as part of its Delfin LNG project.

The firm also aims to install two FLNG units under the Avocet LNG project.

“The company has secured commercial agreements for LNG sales and liquefaction services and is in the final phase towards FID on its first three FLNG vessels,” Delfin said in the statement.

In October, Delfin won more time from the US FERC to put into service the project’s onshore facilities in Louisiana.

Delfin now has time until September 28, 2027, to construct and make available for service the onshore facilities.

Image: Delfin LNG

In July, Delfin said it expects to take a final investment decision on its first FLNG in October this year.

Delfin also negotiated a binding engineering, construction, and procurement contract with South Korea’s Samsung Heavy Industries and US engineer Black & Veatch and said that it expects to sign this deal by September this year.

The firm recently also joined forces with China’s Wison Offshore & Marine to develop additional floating LNG producers.

Besides the Wison deal, Delfin sealed a supply deal in July with UK-based Centrica worth about $8 billion.

Prior to that, the firm secured an investment from Japan’s shipping giant MOL and previously signed supply deals with Hartree Partners and Vitol.

In addition to these agreements, Delfin LNG entered into a heads of agreement in September last year with US oil and gas producer Devon Energy for long-term liquefaction capacity, but also a pre-financial investment decision strategic investment.

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CoolCo says LNG newbuild duo still available for charter

Energy News Beat

LNG carrier operator CoolCo is still in talks with charterers to find work for two newbuild LNG vessels it purchased from its largest shareholder Eastern Pacific Shipping.

“CoolCo continues to be in discussions with multiple potential charterers seeking employment for the newbuilds,” the firm said in its third-quarter report on Tuesday.

CoolCo exercised its option with affiliates of EPS Ventures in June to acquire newbuild contracts for two 2-stroke LNG carriers scheduled to deliver in second half of 2024.

South Korea’s Hyundai Samho is building these 174,000-cbm ME-GA vessels and they feature GTT’s Mark III Flex membrane cargo tank system, reliquification, air-lubrication, and shaft generators.

CoolCo will pay $234 million for each of the LNG carriers.

In October, CoolCO entered into sale and leaseback financing arrangements with China’s Huaxia Financial Leasing, the leasing arm of Hua Xia Bank, for the Kool Tiger and Kool Panther vessels.

Besides these two newbuilds, CoolCo has seven TFDE LNG carriers it acquired from Golar LNG and the four LNG carriers it purchased from EPS.

The company also manages eight LNG carriers and ten FSRUs in addition to owned fleet, according to its website.

CoolCo achieved average time charter equivalent earnings (TCE) of $82,400 per day for the third quarter, compared to $81,100 per day in the prior quarter.

The company’s fleet “continued to perform well” with a Q3 fleet utilization of 97.3 percent with the remaining covered by a ballast bonus, compared to 100 percent for the first half of the 2023.

CoolCo said there are no drydocks planned for 2023, with the next drydock expected during the second quarter of 2024.

“Subsequent to the quarter, a ship management services customer has decided to transfer up to nine vessels for which CoolCo currently provides technical management to managers that solely provide ship management services over the course of 2024,” it said.

Moreover, the LNG shipping firm generated total operating revenues of $92.9 million in the third quarter, compared to $90.3 million for the second quarter of 2023.

The company reported a net income of $39.2 million in the third quarter, compared to $44.6 million in the prior quarter, and adjusted Ebitda of $62.8 million, compared to $59.9 million in the prior quarter.

CoolCo said the decrease in net income was primarily due to lower unrealized mark-to-market gains on its interest rate swaps.

The company declared a dividend for the third quarter of $0.41 per share, to be paid to shareholders of record on December 7.

CEO Richard Tyrrell said that during the third quarter the company “benefited from strong operational performance, a seasonal uplift on our variable rate contract and the fleet’s fixed-rate, medium- and long-term charter coverage.”

“Additionally, we took measured exposure to the charter market in the form of one vessel that we chose to deploy directly in the spot market while waiting for the right term opportunity,” he said.

According to Tyrrrell, the net result was a “sequentially higher TCE level” at $82,400 per day.

“While not currently reaching the levels seen in the months following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, rates in the early fourth quarter have settled in at levels above historic norms for both the industry and for the CoolCo fleet. This provides us upside on legacy contracts as they renew and scope to maintain TCE performance,” he said.

“During the second half of 2023, newbuild deliveries have been limited and overall fleet supply has remained well-balanced against demand,” Tyrrell said.

The last two newbuilds in the market from independent owners that deliver ahead of CoolCo’s 2024 deliveries have now secured long-term employment, positioning the company’s newbuilds “as both the next in line and some of the only uncommitted newbuilds currently available before 2026,” he said.

“Newbuild pricing has remained elevated relative to historical levels at about $260 million per vessel, which along with the current interest rate environment is “providing significant support to the long-term charter rates available for newbuilds while also discouraging incremental newbuild orders,” he said.

“Moving forward, a continued strength in gas prices and tightening regulations are expected to put increasing pressure on the large number of remaining steam turbine vessels in themarket, likely resulting in heavy scrapping in the coming years,” Tyrrell said.

As the weather begins to turn colder in the Northern Hemisphere, seasonal support for LNG carrier demand “typically ratchets up,” Tyrrell said.

“We have thus far seen only limited term chartering activity ahead of the 2023/24 winter market, but with the continued absence of Europe’s traditional supply backstop from Russian pipeline gas and few vessels currently employed as floating storage, the potential for weather events to produce volatility, and thus demand for LNG carriers, is heightened,” he said.

“Ultimately, energy security remains a top priority for many LNG importing nations, and we expect European demand to remain strong and Asian demand to continue its recovery,” Tyrrell said.

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Origin: Australia Pacific LNG deliveries impacted as tanker loses power at jetty

Energy News Beat

Deliveries from the ConocoPhillips-operated Australia Pacific LNG plant on Curtis Island have been delayed as a loaded LNG tanker docked at the terminal’s jetty had lost power and was unable to leave, according to shareholder Origin.

Origin, which is subject to a takeover offer from a consortium consisting of Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management and a unit of US-based energy investor EIG, said in a statement on Tuesday that downstream operator of APLNG, ConocoPhillips, “is working with all parties concerned, including the relevant maritime regulator and port authority, to resolve the situation.”

The firm, as upstream operator, has started turning down production to reduce the flow of gas to the LNG facility.

In addition, Origin is taking steps to bank its non-operated portfolio production and execute additional domestic gas sales, it said.

The company did not reveal the name of the vessel but its AIS data provided by VesselValue shows that the tanker in question is the 2017-built 174,100-cbm, Cesi Qingdao.

Cesi Qingdao is owned by a joint venture of MOL, Cosco Shipping, and Sinopec. It transports APLNG volumes for China’s Sinopec.

Origin currently owns a 22.5 percent in the APLNG project, while Sinopec owns a 25 percent share in the project.

US energy giant ConocoPhillips has a 47.5 percent share in the APLNG project and operates the 9 mtpa LNG export facility on Curtis Island near Gladstone.

However, ConocoPhillips revealed plans in March to become upstream operator of APLNG following the closing of EIG’s transaction with Origin, and it has also agreed to purchase up to an additional 2.49 percent shareholding interest in APLNG for $0.5 billion.

Origin said only one LNG vessel is able to dock at the LNG facility at a time.

As a result, no other cargoes can be loaded until the situation is resolved, it said.

According to the firm, two LNG cargoes have already been deferred out of the FY2024 delivery schedule.

“It is expected that more LNG cargos will be deferred, with Australia Pacific LNG ordinarily loading a LNG vessel for export approximately every three days,” it said.

The total number of cargoes to be deferred will depend on the timeframe for resolution, Origin said.

Origin added there is no impact to domestic gas customers and the firm “will provide further updates as appropriate.”

ConocoPhillips Australia also confirmed later on Tuesday that an LNG vessel docked at the APLNG LNG facility lost power and was unable to leave the terminal as scheduled.

The company said that there have been no injuries to personnel on the vessel or at the LNG Facility from the event.

“We have been working with the ship captain and management, local and federal regulators, and the customer to respond to this event,” it said.

The company said it has assessed and planned for scenarios to best manage the supply through the APLNG facility while the situation is being resolved—this includes deferring cargoes as required.

“We remain focused on ensuring safe operations and continue to support the ship management with their repair plans,” ConocoPhillips Australia said.

(Updated with a statement by ConocoPhillips Australia.)

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Germans Have Become Welfare Piggy-Bank For Immigrants, New Govt Data Reveals

Energy News Beat

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

Germany’s welfare system is being dragged down by the country’s growing immigrant population, with data from the country’s Federal Employment Agency showing that over six out of 10 welfare recipients deemed able to work are migrants.

The country’s welfare system, once referred to as Hartz IV, but now relabeled as citizen’s money (“Bürgergeld”), is now flowing to the country’s migrants, even though they make up a small share of Germany’s overall population. In fact, in some German states, they take in over 70 percent of all welfare money at a time when services and benefits are being cut for Germans across the country.

Overall, 62.6 percent of all welfare recipients are migrants, and within the 15 to 25 age group, this number goes up to 71.3 percent, according to German news outlet NIUS.

In the state of Hessen, which is home to Frankfurt, 76 percent of welfare recipients are migrants. In Baden-Württemberg 73.7 percent are migrants, in Hamburg the share is 72.3 percent, Bavaria features 64.4 percent, and in Berlin this figure is 67.8 percent. In the vast majority of states, the share is over 50 percent. Only the eastern German states, which have historically been far poorer and feature far fewer migrants, is the share below 50 percent. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has the lowest share of migrants at 29.2 percent, but it also has one of the lowest numbers of migrants in all of Germany.

The Alternative for Germany, which has called for mass deportations to help save Germany’s budget, is pointing to the data to show the failure of the current left-liberal government’s approach to migration.

“The migration policy of the last few decades has failed catastrophically,” said AfD MP René Springer, who also serves as policy spokesperson.

“Rigorous measures are now needed to stop further immigration into our social systems.”

He said this means Germany needs “complete border protection and rejections at our national borders, consistent deportations, and from now on only benefits in kind instead of cash for asylum seekers and refugees.”

Perhaps most troubling, most of these welfare recipients with a migration background were actually born in the country. That means they may be German citizens speaking German, but they are still unable or unwilling to work.

The data will further poke holes in arguments that migrants are needed to prop up Germany’s pension system and fill the country’s workplaces. Instead, migrants are choosing simply not to work and collect welfare in huge numbers.

In addition, almost 60 percent have remained unemployed for over a year, which bodes poorly for this segment of the population integrating into the workforce in the future.

Previous data shows that Germany is expected to spend an enormous €36 billion on migrants in 2023 alone at a time when inflation and unemployment are growing.

Read more here…

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2024 Will Be The Busiest Political Year On Record – and potentially violent

Energy News Beat

Yesterday, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid published his 2024 World Outlook titled “The race against time” (which we will discuss shortly), and which refers to the fact that funding has dried up or tightened considerably over the last couple of years for various parts of the economy as rates have risen. So can central banks loosen, and can yields fall quickly enough to avoid a funding accident that could lead to contagion? Those are some of the questions Reid and his team try to answer.

One interesting mention in the report is a point that BofA’s Michael Hartnett has repeatedly made in his Flow Show notes, namely that 2024 will see elections in countries covering around half the world’s population.

In today’s Chart of the Day by the DB strategist, he looks at this back over 220 years and shows that this is set to be the year with the biggest percentage of elections across the globe. Also interestingly, it will be the polar opposite of 2023 which was one of the lightest years in the last four decades. In fact, this time last year DB was shighlighting here how 2023 was set to be the first year of the 21st century with no major G7 election.

So 2024 will be a big change from 2023. Clearly many elections will be relatively routine affairs, but as we saw from the Dutch election last week, there can be surprises.

The mains ones to watch are:

The US Presidential Election in November. A Trump victory, assuming he is the Republican nominee, plus a Republican sweep in Congress, could bring substantive policy changes.The Taiwanese election in January 2024 could help shape US-China relations over the next few years.European Parliamentary elections in June. Given the relatively high polling numbers for the far right across parts of Europe and the recent Dutch result, this election could test the capacity of the traditional mainstream parties to maintain a majority and the Commission’s ability to push further EU integration, such as with the “open strategic autonomy” agenda.Indian elections in April/May. Political stability is behind our view that their economy will double in size out to 2030

So, to paraphrase Reid, stand by for the busiest political year ever.

 

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