Is the UK Taxing North Sea Oil and Gas Out of Existence?

Energy News Beat
Since the previous Tory government introduced a windfall profit tax on the energy industry back in 2022, oil and gas output from the North Sea has declined by 10%.
Instead of supporting the development of the country’s own energy resources, the Keir Starmer government is prioritizing the shift away from North Sea oil and gas.
Companies are beginning to consider relocation, leaving the UK with no locally sourced oil and gas, and no fat tax revenues for an ambitious government.

There is still plenty of oil and gas left in the UK’s North Sea. However, the industry needs a more favorable legislative context to get motivated to extract these. As things are, it seems unlikely that will happen any time soon.

The update about North Sea hydrocarbon resources comes from Wood Mac amid a strong push by the new Labour government in the country to decimate local oil and gas production, recently prompting warnings that this could increase the UK’s reliance on imported hydrocarbons.

That reliance is already increasing because of unfavorable legislation. Since the previous Tory government introduced a windfall profit tax on the energy industry back in 2022, oil and gas output from the North Sea has declined by 10%, Wood Mac reported. This represents some 5 billion pounds, or $6.5 billion, in lost cash flow, the energy consultancy said. Meanwhile, another 10 billion pounds worth of oil and gas sits under the North Sea, waiting to be tapped.

Instead of supporting the development of the country’s own energy resources, however, the Keir Starmer government is prioritizing the shift away from these energy resources to wind, solar, and hydrogen as it seeks to fulfill its ambitious transition commitments, which include a zero-emission grid by 2030. In order to fund these commitments, it is raising the windfall profit tax on the energy industry further.

With the latest increase, the energy industry’s total tax burden would increase to 78%—and companies would have no other option but to pay these taxes because Labour would also be removing a so-called investment allowance that reduced the total payable amount if a company invested its profits in further production.

Yet since the current leadership of Britain does not believe the country needs more production of energy commodities, taxing it is. The problem is, that companies are beginning to consider relocation, leaving the UK with no locally sourced oil and gas, and no fat tax revenues for an ambitious government.

Wood Mackenzie analysts point out that it would be a good idea to reduce that tax burden in order to encourage more investment in local energy commodity production, adding that it would be best if this happens as soon as next year. The worst-case scenario, according to the firm, is if the government leaves the windfall profit tax in place with no changes. This, Wood Mac said, would result in a 50% decline in UK oil and gas by 2030.

From the perspective of the Starmer government and climate activists, this would be a victory over fossil fuels, perhaps. The fact is that such a decline in local production would simply increase the UK’s reliance on foreign energy, which comes at a premium price.

The UK is already a growing energy importer. In the second quarter of the year, electricity imports from continental Europe hit 20% of total supply, which was a record high that may yet be exceeded by the end of the year. Yet even higher imports are not enough to ensure supply security—so there is now talk about electricity rationing, with critics warning it would have a negative effect on both the economy and the welfare of Britons.

Taxing the oil and gas industry out of existence and opting for rationing instead of locally sourced energy certainly seems like an odd way to do energy policies. The paradoxical plan to fund the transition with oil and gas tax money while regulating oil and gas producers out of the market highlights that oddity. It looks, however, that realizing the risks of this approach and the benefits of having your own energy might come too late to make a difference.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Geopolitical Uncertainty Is Pushing Oil Prices Higher

Energy News Beat

Oil prices are set to post a weekly gain as geopolitical uncertainty remains a central focus of oil traders, but a strong dollar and a large U.S. inventory build are holding Brent and WTI back.





Friday, October 25th, 2024

The elevation of the Israel-Iran conflict into the main oil market narrative for October is by no means over, the closer we get to the US presidential elections the wilder speculation will get regarding future escalation scenarios. At the same time, Brent and WTI will only post minor week-over-week increases, trending around $75 and $71 per barrel respectively, as a stronger dollar and a larger-than-expected US inventory spike limited the upside.

ExxonMobil Gets 3-Year Extension for Golden Pass. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has granted the ExxonMobil-QatarEnergy JV a 3-year extension to finish building their Golden Pass LNG plant, signaling further delays after the project was derailed by the bankruptcy of contractor Zachry.

Chevron’s Nigeria Find Disappoints Oil Enthusiasts. According to Nigerian media, the lauded Meji discovery of US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) in Nigeria’s OML 90 block, boasting a 690-feet hydrocarbon pay, contains a disproportionately more natural gas than oil, potentially delaying its rollout.

UK’s Largest Oil Producer Eyes North Sea Exit. The largest oil producer in the UK North Sea, London-based Harbour Energy (LON:HBR) said it would seek to sell stakes in at least five UK offshore fields and has revived plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange to end its streak of undervaluation.

Offshore Drilling Firms Gear Up For Record Merger. The world’s leading offshore drilling companies, Transocean (NYSE:RIG) and Seadrill (NYSE:SDRL), are discussing a merger to improve synergies amidst a strong drilling outlook that didn’t improve their stock performance, down 35% and 26%, respectively.

Mexico Eyes Exploration Drive to Lift Reserves. According to internal Pemex communication, Mexico’s national oil firm aims to boost its hydrocarbon reserves and ensure their timely replenishment, particularly focusing on deepwater drilling, despite a recent 20% cut to its Q4 upstream budget.

Brazil to Finally Settle Brumadinho Catastrophe. Following years of litigation, Brazilian authorities signed a $30 billion compensation deal for the 2015 Mariana dam collapse with mining giants Vale (NYSE:VALE) and BHP (NYSE:BHP) on Friday, marking the end of one of iron mining’s worst catastrophes.

Industry Sees No New Permian Pipeline. Top executives of Enterprise Products (NYSE:EPD) and Plains All American (NASDAQ:PAA) stated that they will not be building any new crude oil pipelines out of the Permian shale play, believing optimization would be the next step for crude evacuation capacity.

Norway’s Largest Field to Start Declining Next Year. Norway’s largest oil field Johan Sverdrup, operated by the country’s state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) will start to come off its production plateau as early as next year, currently pumping 756,000 b/d and accounting for 7% of Europe’s total oil consumption.

Zinc Prices Soar After Fire in Teck’s Smelter. Zinc prices soared to a 20-month high after one of the leading suppliers of the metal, Canada’s Teck Resources (NYSE:TECK), shut down part of its Trail smelting plant in British Columbia, sending three-month LME prices to $3,284 per metric tonne this week.

India Mulls Scrapping Windfall Taxes on Oil. Lowering regulatory pressure on India’s upstream producers, the Indian government has declared itself ready to scrap the windfall tax ($22 per metric tonne or $3 per barrel) as the levy no longer makes sense amidst ‘softened’ oil prices.

US Refining Giant Mulls California Shutdown. Less than a week after Phillips66 announced the closure of its LA refinery, the US’ leading downstream firm Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) is reportedly considering shuttering some of its California capacity, currently operating the Benicia and Wilmington refineries.

China Expands Commodity Trade with Taliban. China will offer tariff-free access to its construction, energy, and consumer sectors to the Taliban, controlling Afghanistan since 2021, seeking to tap into the Central Asian country’s largely undeveloped copper, iron, lithium, and petroleum reserves.

Boeing Suffers Setback after Setback. US aircraft manufacturer Boeing (NYSE:BA) fell again this week after striking employees rejected a tentative labor deal negotiated by the company’s unions, promising a 35% wage increase spread over four years, with total strike-related losses already surpassing $4.5 billion.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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Arkansas might be sitting on 19 million tons of lithium

Energy News Beat

Lithium in a Smackover Formation could provide nine times the global demand for EV batteries
The lithium deposits could be the key to U.S. battery production
Lithium mining was extensive in North Carolina until the 1980s

A lithium deposit located in southwestern Arkansas could hold enough of the metal to satisfy global EV battery demand nine times over, according to a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)-led study.

The study, based on water testing and machine-learning analysis, estimates between five million and 19 million tons of lithium in the Smackover Formation. Even the low-end estimate is equivalent to more than nine times the global demand for lithium use in EV batteries in 2030, as currently estimated by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the USGS notes.

Smackover Formation identified as a potential U.S. lithium source (via USGS)

Also extending under parts of Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, the Smackover Formation is a remnant of an ancient sea that dates from the Jurassic period. It’s known for rich deposits of oil and bromine, but the USGS believes lithium can be commercially extracted from the brine (high salinity water) brought to the surface during oil and gas extraction operations.

The U.S. currently imports more than 25% of its lithium, according to the USGS. Despite having one of the largest supplies of lithium, U.S. production faltered in the 1990s due to cost issues. More than 80% of global lithium is sourced from Australia, Chile, and China, with the latter nation controlling more than half of the world’s lithium processing and refining capacity, according to a 2022 CNBC report.

BMW cylindrical battery cells

But the USGS estimates that there is enough lithium brought to the surface in oil-production brine waste streams in Arkansas to cover current estimated U.S. lithium demand. That would help achieve the Biden administration’s goal of building a domestic EV supply chain. The administration has already turned to the Defense Production Act to ramp up availability of lithium and other battery materials, and added raw-material sourcing requirements to the federal EV tax credit, in support of those goal.

Efforts have also been made to restart lithium production in areas where it once thrived. In 2019, a mining company sought permits for a new lithium mine near Charlotte, North Carolina. Lithium was mined extensively in the North Carolina foothills until the 1980s.

Source: Greencarreports.com

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Bill Ackman’s Election Insights

Energy News Beat

Daily Standup Top Stories

Bill Ackman on Squawk Box has a fantastic interview and perspective on our election.

ENB Pub Note: The following is copied from @BillAckman’s X account and the interview he just had on CNBC Squawk Box. – He articulates critical reasons for why a Democrat should vote for President Trump. […]

Korybko To Ishaan Tharoor: BRICS Members’ Political Differences Won’t Impede Financial Co-Op

All that BRICS does is gather together some of the world’s largest economies like China and India, key energy players like Russia and the UAE, and some of the world’s most promising emerging economies like […]

Aramco CEO: Global South Will Drive Oil Demand for Decades

Aramco CEO Amin Nasser is optimistic about China’s oil demand, particularly in the chemical and aviation fuel sectors. Nasser believes that the global energy transition is happening slower than anticipated and that oil demand will […]

Goldman Sachs Sees Limited Upside for Oil Prices in 2025

Goldman Sachs predicts average oil prices of $76 per barrel in 2025 due to sufficient global spare capacity. The forecast sees limited upside potential due to high spare capacity and potential trade tariffs. Despite undisrupted […]

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

01:13 – Bill Ackman on Squawk Box has a fantastic interview and perspective on our election.

06:01 – Korybko To Ishaan Tharoor: BRICS Members’ Political Differences Won’t Impede Financial Co-Op

08:05 – Aramco CEO: Global South Will Drive Oil Demand for Decades

09:24 – Goldman Sachs Sees Limited Upside for Oil Prices in 2025

11:04 – Outro

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– Get in Contact With The Show –

Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Stuart Turley: [00:00:10] Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Energy News Beat Daily. Stand up. My name’s Stu Turley President and CEO The Sandstone Group. It is a crazy day out on the news desk. Let’s start with our stories. Bill ackman on squawk box has a van tastic interview and perspective on our election. Billionaire investor bill ackman live on the countdown to 2024 presidential election. It’s pretty van tastic article. We have Korybko to Isaac Toro on the BRICs members. Political differences won’t impede Financial co-op. BRICs is something that you got to pay attention to and I hats off to Andrew agreeable co his Substack Aramco CEOs Global South will drive oil demand for decades. And finally, Goldman Sachs sees limited upside for oil prices in 2025. I’ll tell you what, this is just a barrel of fun around here. You can’t buy this kind of entertainment. [00:01:12][61.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:13] First off, I got to hand it to Bill ackman who is a billionaire stepping out on Squawk Box. I do think MSNBC has one of the best shows on squawk box for news. I’m not a particular fan of one of the individuals there who, if you watch the entire video I put in their ex post in the article and you’ll be able to watch and you’ll figure out who I’m talking about there. But let’s go through Bill’s point. Bill has been in the history giving mostly to Democrats, but he said he can’t really back Kamala Harris. And it’s because the 32 different things that the Biden-Harris administration has done and these are 33 gigantic reasons not to vote for Kamala Harris. Let me read you this line. While 33 actions I described below for the Democratic Party and the Biden-Harris administration. They are also the actions and policies. And unfortunately, our most aggressive adversaries would likely implement had they wanted to destroy America from within and had the ability to take control of our leadership. These are the 33. I’m not going to go through all 33, but I am going to go through a few of them here. This is very important. And again, my hat’s off to him, Bill. I know he probably lost a few friends and maybe even a family member over coming out like this. But a year or more than welcome to Stop on the Energy News Beat podcast, I’d love to visit with you. And again, congratulations. I really loved your article. You had pinned it to your X, your contact information or your ex post will be in the show notes. So let’s start with number one. Open the border to millions of immigrants who are not screened for their risk to the country, dumping them into communities where the new immigrants overwhelmingly existing communities and the infrastructure to support the new entrants at the expense of historic residents. I’ll tell you what, it’s not that I’m against immigration. I am all for legal immigration. And I believe that’s what exactly what he was saying as well to the withdraw from Afghanistan. We know how horrible that was introduced economic policies and massively increased spending without regard to their impact on inflation. And I’ll tell you what, I think the real eye opener here is if Manchin had not stumbled, halt stalled or halted some of this stuff, we could have seen even higher inflation on this introduced thousands and new unnecessary regulation in light of the existing regulatory regime that interfere with our businesses ability to compete. We have it has cost the U.S. consumers trillions. And we’ve talked about this before. Promote the ideologies limit or attempt to ban fracking and LNG so that US energy increased substantially and the US is losing energy independence. What this also has done is they’ve also weaponized the U.S. dollar through sanctions. And he goes on and talks about that. I believe in one of these down here as well. And when you talk about take no serious actions, when 45 American citizens are killed by terrorists and 12 taken hostages, I’ll tell you what, if President Trump was in, we would have had those hostages back already. I don’t think we would have been waiting around for a year. Why do the American people about the cognitive health of the president and accused those who provide video evidence of his decline? Cheering. Videos and being a right wing conspirator, he nails it. I mean, Kamala had to have hit that select the Democratic nominee for president and a backroom process by undisclosed party leaders not allowing Americans to choose between candidates in an open primary. Holy smokes. Litigated to make it illegal for states to require a proof of citizen citizenship and voter I.D. and resistance and reside in order to vote. At a time when Americans have lost confidence in the accuracy and trustworthy inverse voting system. Holy smokes, Bill Ackman. My hat is off to you and I would love to have you on the podcast and talk to you about your views and your impact. I’m hoping that you didn’t lose too many friends. And again, thank you very much. [00:06:01][288.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:01] Let’s go to Andrew Korybko. BRICs Members Political differences won’t Impede the Financial Coa. This is one of the biggest stories that’s really not being talked about in the mainstream right now. We have BRICs, which is the alliance of Brazil, South Africa, India, Russia and China. And when you sit back and take a look, they have all of the countries that are meeting in Russia right now. President Z has called for the end to the Russian war with Ukraine. And I believe that will happen Now. That will also happen in time so that the EU can start buying Russian natural gas again or keep buying Russian natural gas through the Ukraine pipelines. This is a big deal. Either you buy Russian gas or you’d industrialize the industrialize ice. So when you take the deindustrialization of the EU and Germany and you put in green energy policies, you’ve got to get that low cost Russian, German, low cost natural gas back into Germany and back into the EU, or you will finish the industrialization. So Andrew brings out some great points. Even though Putin previously hinted at the political role that BRICs can play amidst the global systemic transition, this can be interpreted as hindsight. Just an observation about the impact of its members coordinated policies to accelerate financial multipolarity process and not a part of the master plan. And what they’re trying to do is Putin made a very clear statement. The United States made a gigantic mistake by weaponization of the U.S. dollar and sanctions. Like the Biden-Harris administration has done. What else are they supposed to do? Well, BRICs has been around for quite a while now. It’s accelerated and we are going to pay the price. So hats off to Andrew on that. [00:08:04][123.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:05] Let’s go to Aramco. Aramco CEO Global sales will drive oil demand for decades. Amir Nasser is optimistic about China’s oil demand, particularly in the chemical and aviation fuel sectors. Nasser believes that the global energy transition is happening slower than anticipated and that oil demand will remain strong for decades, delivered by the driven by the Global South. The Global South is really the in the Asian markets in the growing area there. The South Korea is in in that area, we see demand for jet fuel and naphtha, especially for liquid to chemical projects next year said I’m on the sidelines, adding a lot of it’s happening in China, mainly because of the growth in chemical needs, especially for the transition for the electrical vehicles, for the solar panels. They need more chemicals and that’s huge growth there. You can’t make the solar panels out of a windmill. You can’t make an iPhone out of a windmill or solar panel. You need oil and gas. China is a great market and we’re investing with our partners, he said. The United States has made let me go on record. The United States has made severe geopolitical mistakes, and I hope that we all take note. [00:09:24][78.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:24] Goldman Sachs Sees Limited Upside for Oil Prices in 2025. I got mixed emotions about this article. Goldman Sachs predicts an average price of $76 per barrel in 2025 due to sufficient global spare capacity. The forecast sees limited upside potential due to high spare capacity. Now, overall, quote, we see the medium risk around our 70 to 85 barrel range is two sided, but skewed moderately to the downside. Here’s where I am. I’m going to hedge the bet just a little bit on this. There is still a lot of demand. If President Trump is put in and we do not have any democratic and for. Parties or destructive behavior going on and we have a smooth transition of power. I think you’re going to see the economy start to increase again in the United States. The UK is really going to slow down if the war in Ukraine can stop and Germany and the rest of the EU can get low cost Russian natural gas, they can start their emergence. Coming in a little bit sooner. So if that happens, you’ll see oil prices rise around the world. And if you get the sanctions under control and you get trading going on under a Trump administration, you will see prices stabilizing in that. I think they’re in the right range in there. And I think that it does go to the higher side, in my opinion. [00:11:03][99.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:04] But with that, like subscribe share and if you have any questions, we’d love to see you. And if you are a energy expert, I’d love to visit with you on the Energy News Beat Podcast. If you have investment advice on where you think the markets are going to go, do you think that BRICs is actually going to dethrone the US dollar? I don’t think it’s going to do total a dethrone, but we are seeing an erosion of the US dollar at a very significant rate. So with that hope, we have a fantastic day. Thank you all. So. [00:11:04][0.0][651.0]

– Get in Contact With The Show –

 

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‘Full-Blown Scandal’: Biden-Harris Admin Hid Documents To Justify Fossil Fuel Crackdown, Oversight Committee Says

Energy News Beat

The Biden-Harris administration is allegedly covering up an internal study conducted in 2023 that would have rendered its moratorium on natural gas projects unnecessary, according to leaders on the House Oversight and Accountability Committee.

The White House and the Department of Energy paused permitting for liquefied natural gas export projects in January—a policy critics said would cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of jobs—to allow time for a federal study on those projects’ environmental, economic, and national security impacts. That study, according to federal officials, wouldn’t be completed until early 2025, effectively throwing the brakes on dozens of major fossil fuel projects.

According to a letter that Republican leaders on the House Oversight Committee sent to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm on Wednesday, however, there is evidence the Department of Energy already conducted such a study months before announcing the policy. And, the lawmakers added, the agency has sought to stonewall information requests to obtain that study.

The saga is the latest instance of the Biden-Harris administration facing accusations of playing fast and loose with federal rules to push its anti-fossil-fuel agenda. The administration’s efforts to phase out gas-powered cars in favor of electric vehicles, limit fossil fuel leasing, and crack down on traditional power plants, for example, have all faced legal challenges from states and businesses.

The Republicans’ claim stems from a June information request filed by the government watchdog group Government Accountability & Oversight, that asked for any federal study on natural gas exports conducted last year and transmitted to the Department of Energy. The group eventually filed a lawsuit against the Department of Energy, accusing it of stalling the request.

In court filings cited by the Oversight Committee leaders and reviewed by the Washington Free Beacon, the Department of Energy acknowledged in September that it completed the information request, which yielded 97 responsive documents totaling 4,354 pages.

The Department of Energy, though, never shared those documents. On Friday, it sent its final response to the request to Government Accountability and Oversight, saying it understood the group’s request to be seeking only any “final” natural gas export study and that it did not find a “final” study in its search. The group’s information request never specified that it only sought “final” studies rather than potential draft studies.

“The clear implication is that one or more draft studies do exist, and DOE is attempting to cover that up,” Oversight Committee chairman James Comer (R., Ky.), Oversight energy subcommittee chairman Pat Fallon (R., Texas), and Rep. Clay Higgins (R., La.) wrote to Granholm on Wednesday.

“The Committee demands that DOE finally provide complete and accurate information related to the Committee’s investigation and all relevant studies or drafts thereof that may have been conducted or prepared prior to DOE’s January 26, 2024, imposition of the Biden-Harris LNG export ban,” the lawmakers added in the letter, which was first obtained by the Free Beacon.

In a statement to the Free Beacon, Government Accountability & Oversight attorney Chris Horner characterized the Department of Energy’s actions as a “full-blown scandal.”

“The Energy Department says, on second thought, it has no records at all,” said Horner“How did so many potentially responsive records vanish overnight? What happened was the Department of Energy effectively rewrote our request to engineer this reversal and a seemingly less-damning ‘no records’ response.”

“This confirms our information that the purported rationale for this reckless January 2024 ‘pause’ on further natural gas exports was a fabrication: the study was already performed in 2023 and was spiked,” he added. “This administration did not spike the study because it supported their desired strangulation of fossil energy. The information that led us to this inquiry was, in fact, that the study was spiked because it surprised the administration by once again touting the benefits of natural gas exports.”

In other words, according to Horner, the Department of Energy possessed a nonpartisan study showing the environmental, economic, and national security benefits of continued natural gas exports when it chose to block those same projects earlier this year. Horner said the agency ignored its own internal information to appease left-wing climate activists.

Major environmental nonprofits, many of whom have funneled millions of dollars to Democratic campaigns, had repeatedly called on the Biden-Harris administration to block natural gas export projects in the months before the administration announced the action. Activists argued the downstream emissions of the projects would lead to worse climate change.

The Department of Energy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The administration’s moratorium on natural gas exports, meanwhile, has faced stiff opposition from Republicans, Democrats, national security officials, and industry groups. One study commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute concluded natural gas exports could add $73 billion to the economy by 2040 and create 453,000 jobs.

FreeBeacon.com

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Bill Ackman on Squawk Box has a fantastic interview and perspective on our election.

Energy News Beat

ENB Pub Note: The following is copied from @BillAckman’s X account and the interview he just had on CNBC Squawk Box. – He articulates critical reasons for why a Democrat should vote for President Trump. Bill’s points are spot on, and the actions of the current administration, from banning LNG exports to closing down small businesses, are just a few of the things he calls out. What are your thoughts?

 

.@BillAckman outlines the reasons why he’s supporting @realDonaldTrump, ranging from foreign policy to leadership strength: pic.twitter.com/t5WV0tU7yn

— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) October 23, 2024

 

A number of my good friends and family have been surprised about my decision to support @realDonaldTrump  for president. They have been surprised because my political giving history has been mostly to Democrats, my voting registration has typically been Democrat (in NY, you must be registered to the party in order to vote in the primary, and usually the Republican candidate has no chance to win), and many of our philanthropic initiatives have supported issues that are consistent with Democratic priorities.

All of the above said, I have always considered myself to be a centrist and/or moderate, and I have voted for the candidate and supported the issues and policies that I believe are in the best interest of the country. Some have accused me of supporting Trump because doing so will somehow benefit me financially. Fortunately, I do not need any financial benefits as I and my family have well more than we need. I have also committed to give away the substantial majority of my resources at or by the time I am no longer, so I don’t consider personal financial benefits in the determination of whom I support for office. Some have suggested that I am supporting Trump because I am seeking a position in his administration. To be clear, I haven’t been offered one and I wouldn’t take a job in the administration (I love my job and it is the wrong time in my life to work in an administration). I will, however, do everything else I can to help the president succeed in helping our country and its citizens. All of the above said, I am an investor who manages funds that own some of the best, principally American, businesses in the world. In a better governed and managed America, these business will do better and increase in value faster. One might therefore argue that being ‘long’ America is somehow a conflict, so I thought to disclose this potential ‘conflict’ here.

Some of my friends and family who support @KamalaHarris  are ok with my supporting Trump, but don’t want me to attempt to convince others to support him. Because I strongly believe that a Trump administration will be better for the country and the world than a Harris administration, I think it is important to share my thinking to the extent it helps others come to the right conclusion. Three months ago, when I endorsed Trump on the day of the first assassination attempt, I promised to share my thinking about why I came to this conclusion in a future more detailed post. I intend to do so in possibly more than one post, with the first, this one, explaining the actions and policies of the Biden/Harris administration and Democratic Party that were the catalysts for my losing total confidence in the administration and the Party. To be clear, my decision to vote for Trump is not an endorsement of everything he has done or will do because he is an imperfect man. Unlike a marriage or a business partnership where there are effectively unlimited alternatives, in this election, we have only two viable choices. Of the two, I believe that Trump is by far the superior candidate despite his flaws and mistakes he has made in the past. As always, I welcome your feedback on how I could be wrong and on how the below actions and policies I outline below might actually have been good for America. I have always believed that the best way to get to the truth is to hear the best arguments on all sides of an issue.

While the 33 actions I describe below are those of the Democratic Party and the Biden/Harris administration, they are also the actions and policies that unfortunately our most aggressive adversaries would likely implement if they wanted to destroy America from within, and had the ability to take control of our leadership. These are the 33:

(1) open the borders to millions of immigrants who were not screened for their risk to the country, dumping them into communities where the new immigrants overwhelm existing communities and the infrastructure to support the new entrants, at the expense of the historic residents,

(2) introduce economic policies and massively increase spending without regard to their impact on inflation and the consequences for low-income Americans and the increase in our deficit and national debt,

(3) withdraw from Afghanistan, abandoning our local partners and the civilians who worked alongside us in an unprepared, overnight withdrawal that led to American casualties and destroyed the lives of Afghani women and girls for generations, against the strong advice of our military leadership, and thereafter not showing appropriate respect for their loss at a memorial ceremony in their honor,

(4) introduce thousands of new and unnecessary regulations in light of the existing regulatory regime that interfere with our businesses’ ability to compete, restraining the development of desperately needed housing, infrastructure, and energy production with the associated inflationary effects, (5) modify the bail system so that violent criminals are released without bail,

(6) destroy our street retailers and communities and promote lawlessness by making shoplifting (except above large thresholds) no longer a criminal offense,

(7) limit and/or attempt to limit or ban fracking and LNG so that U.S. energy costs increase substantially and the U.S. loses its energy independence,

(8) promote DEI ideologies that award jobs, awards, and university admissions on the basis of race, sexual identity and gender criteria, and teach our students and citizens that the world can only be understood as an unfair battle between oppressors and the oppressed, where the oppressors are only successful due to structural racism or a rigged system and the oppressed are simply victims of an unfair system and world,

(9) educate our elementary children that gender is fluid, something to be chosen by a child, and promote hormone blockers and gender reassignment surgeries to our youth without regard to the longer-term consequences to their mental and physical health, and allow biological boys and men to compete in girls and women’s sports, depriving girls and women of scholarships, awards, and other opportunities that they would have rightly earned otherwise,

(10) encourage and celebrate massive protests and riots that lead to the burning and destruction of local retail and business establishments while at the same time requiring schools to be shuttered because of the risk of Covid-19 spreading during large gatherings,

(11) encourage and celebrate anti-American and anti-Israel protests and flag burning on campuses around the country with no consequences for the protesters who violate laws or university codes and policies,

(12) allow antisemitism to explode with no serious efforts from the administration to quell this hatred,

(13) mandate vaccines that have not been adequately tested nor have their risks been properly considered compared with the potential benefits adjusted for the age and health of the individual, censoring the contrary advice of top scientists around the world,

(14) shut down free speech in media and on social media platforms that is inconsistent with government policies and objectives,

(15) use the U.S., state, and local legal systems to attack and attempt to jail, take off the campaign trail, and/or massively fine candidates for the presidency without regard to the merits or precedential issues of the case,

(16) seek to defund the police and promote anti-police rhetoric causing a loss of confidence in those who are charged with protecting us,

(17) use government funds to subsidize auto companies and internet providers with vastly more expensive, dated and/or lower-quality technology when greatly superior and cheaper alternatives are available from companies that are owned and/or managed by individuals not favored by the current administration,

(18) mandate in legislation and otherwise government solutions to problems when the private sector can do a vastly better, faster, and cheaper job,

(19) seek to ban gas-powered cars and stoves without regard to the economic and practical consequences of doing so,

(20) take no serious actions when 45 American citizens are killed by terrorists and 12 are taken hostage,

(21) hold back armaments and weaponry from our most important ally in the Middle East in the midst of their hostage negotiations, hostages who include American citizens who have now been held for more than one year,

(22) eliminate sanctions on one of our most dangerous enemies enabling them to generate $150 billion+ of cash reserves from oil sales, which they can then use to fund terrorist proxy organizations who attack us and our allies. Exchange five American hostages held by Iran for five Iranians plus $6 billion of cash in the worst hostage negotiation in history setting a disastrous and dangerous precedent,

(23) remove known terrorist organizations from the terrorist list so we can provide aid to their people, and allow them to shoot rockets at U.S. assets and military bases with little if any military response from us,

(24) lie to the American people about the cognitive health of the president and accuse those who provide video evidence of his decline of sharing doctored videos and being right wing conspirators,

(25) do nothing about the deteriorating health of our citizens driven by the food industrial complex, the fraudulent USDA food pyramid, and the inclusion of ingredients in our food that are banned by other countries around the world which are more protective of their citizens,

(26) do nothing about the proliferation of new vaccines that are not properly analyzed for their risk versus the potential benefit for healthy children who are mandated to receive them,

(27) do nothing about the continued exemption from liability for the pharma industry that has led to a proliferation of mandatory vaccines for children without considering the potential cumulative effects of the now mandated 72-shot regime,

(28) convince our minority youth that they are victims of a rigged system and that the American dream is not available to them,

(29) fail to provide adequate Secret Service protection for alternative presidential candidates,

(30) litigate to prevent alternative candidates from getting on the ballot, and take other anti-competitive steps including threatening political consultants who wish to work for alternative candidates for the presidency, and limit the potential media access for other candidates by threatening the networks’ future access to the administration and access to ‘scoops’ if they platform an alternative candidate,

(31) select the Democratic nominee for president in a backroom process by undisclosed party leaders without allowing Americans to choose between candidates in an open primary,

(32) choose an inferior candidate for the presidency when other much more qualified candidates are available and interested to serve,

(33) litigate to make it illegal for states to require proof of citizenship, voter ID, and/or residence in order to vote at a time when many Americans have lost confidence in the accuracy and trustworthiness of our voting system. I welcome your thoughts.

The post has had over 9 Million views and is located on X here:

A number of my good friends and family have been surprised about my decision to support @realDonaldTrump for president. They have been surprised because my political giving history has been mostly to Democrats, my voting registration has typically been Democrat (in NY, you must…

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) October 11, 2024

 

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Aramco CEO: Global South Will Drive Oil Demand for Decades

Energy News Beat
Aramco CEO Amin Nasser is optimistic about China’s oil demand, particularly in the chemical and aviation fuel sectors.
Nasser believes that the global energy transition is happening slower than anticipated and that oil demand will remain strong for decades, driven by the Global South.
He warns against relying too heavily on predictions of a sharp decline in oil demand, emphasizing the importance of energy security and affordability.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Singapore International Energy Week conference, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said he was “fairly bullish” on China’s oil demand, especially after Beijing rolled out a series of stimulus measures to revive the world’s second-largest economy.

“We see more demand for jet fuel and naphtha, especially for liquid-to-chemical projects,” Nasser said on the sidelines, adding, “A lot of it is happening in China mainly because of the growth in chemical needs. Especially for the transition, for the electric vehicles, for the solar panels, they need more chemicals. So that’s huge growth there.”

China, the world’s largest crude oil importer and second-largest oil consumer, is Aramco’s largest crude oil customer. Nasser noted that Aramco plans to increase liquids-to-chemical capacity to 4 million barrels a day, with most of the increase directed at Chinese markets.

“China is a great market. We are investing with our partners,” he said, adding his firm has increased investments in China.

He also noted that the demand for aviation fuel has been a “bright spot” in the country.

In markets, Brent crude prices were up nearly 2% to the mid-point of the $74 handle on mounting risks that Israel launches a counterattack on Iran. Last week, prices fell 7% as China’s slowdown dominated themes.

Nasser pointed out that Asia’s energy transition is occurring much slower than initially anticipated. He said that over decades, the Global South will increase oil demand as living standards rise—and this will eventually be followed by a long plateau.

“Most analysts agree that even when the growth in global oil demand stops at some point, no abrupt drop in overall demand is anticipated, and that stage is likely to be followed by a long plateau,” he said, adding, “Rather than an energy transition, we are really talking about energy addition.”

“If so, more than 100 million barrels per day would realistically still be required by 2050,” he said at the conference.

“This is a stark contrast with those predicting that oil will, or must, fall to just 25 million barrels per day by then. Being short 75 million barrels every day would be devastating for energy security and affordability,” Nasser warned.

He said countries should use a mix of energy sources that push them closer to their climate ambitions, adding, “Our main focus should be on the levers available now.”

In a recent report, the IEA wrote that crude oil demand could slide by the end of the decade because of the “Age of Electricity.”

Despite forecasts of a sharp and sudden plunge in global crude oil demand, that’s not what’s happening. In fact, fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, will continue to power the global economy for decades to come.

Source: Oilprice.com

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Goldman Sachs Sees Limited Upside for Oil Prices in 2025

Energy News Beat
Goldman Sachs predicts average oil prices of $76 per barrel in 2025 due to sufficient global spare capacity.
The forecast sees limited upside potential due to high spare capacity and potential trade tariffs.
Despite undisrupted Iranian oil production, Goldman Sachs warns a 2025 supply glut isn’t guaranteed, with geopolitical risks remaining a concern.

Oil prices are expected to average $76 per barrel next year amid sufficient supply and ample spare capacity, according to Goldman Sachs.

“Overall, we still see the medium-term risks to our $70-85/bbl range as two-sided but skewed moderately to the downside on net as downside price risks from high spare capacity and potentially broader trade tariffs outweigh upside price,” the investment bank’s analysts wrote in a note carried by Reuters.

Oil prices are currently close to Goldman’s call for next year. Early on Wednesday, Brent Crude prices were down by over 1% to $74.60. The U.S. benchmark price, WTI Crude, was holding onto the $70 a barrel handle, trading down 1.8% to $70.40, after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported late on Tuesday a crude inventory build that was larger than expected.

By the end of this year, oil prices could rise due to what Goldman’s analysts described as Brent time spreads “underpricing physical tightness somewhat.”

“Despite large global spare capacity and so far undisrupted Iran oil production, we don’t think that a 2025 supply glut is a done deal,” Goldman analysts warned.

They currently see the geopolitical risk premium as limited, but cautioned that the unresolved conflict in the Middle East could inflame the war risk premium and oil prices at any time.

Two months ago, Goldman Sachs reduced its expected range for Brent by $5 to $70-$85 per barrel, citing weaker Chinese oil demand, high inventories, and rising U.S. shale production.

Higher supply from America, and possibly from OPEC+ later this year and in 2025, has led Goldman Sachs to forecast that Brent Crude prices would average below $80 per barrel next year.

Morgan Stanley has also recently revised its oil price forecasts downward, reflecting expectations of increased supply from OPEC and non-OPEC producers amid signs of weakening global demand. The bank now anticipates that while the crude oil market will remain tight through the third quarter, it will begin to stabilize in the fourth quarter and potentially move into a surplus by 2025.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Korybko To Ishaan Tharoor: BRICS Members’ Political Differences Won’t Impede Financial Co-Op

Energy News Beat

All that BRICS does is gather together some of the world’s largest economies like China and India, key energy players like Russia and the UAE, and some of the world’s most promising emerging economies like Brazil and Ethiopia for voluntarily coordinating their efforts to reform the global financial system.

The Washington Post’s Ishaan Tharoor published a provocative piece on Wednesday about “The growing tension within the BRICS”. The gist is that members are divided amongst themselves over their respective ties with the West, which might allegedly impede financial cooperation within their group. This prediction is predicated on a false premise, however, since BRICS won’t realistically become a political actor so such differences between its members won’t adversely affect their working relations.

It was explained late last month how “BRICS Membership Or Lack Thereof Isn’t Actually That Big Of A Deal” since the group is just a voluntary association of countries that don’t surrender any sovereignty to a central authority so even non-members can coordinate their policies with its members if they want. The only benefit to BRICS membership is directly participating in the group’s discussions about various voluntary proposals while others just observe their talks or hear about the outcome sometime later.

Even though Putin previously hinted at the political role that BRICS can play amidst the global systemic transition, this can be interpreted in hindsight as just an observation about the impact of its members coordinated policies to accelerate financial multipolarity processes and not part of a master plan. The reason why the passages that Tharoor cited should be seen in this way is because of what Putin himself told top BRICS journalists during his meeting with them in the run-up to the Kazan Summit.

He explicitly channeled Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose country officially considers itself to be the “Vishwamitra” (friend of the world), to tell them that “BRICS is not an anti-Western alliance; it is simply non-Western.” This was soon followed up by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov politely correcting Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for allegedly being of the view that BRICS aspires to become an alternative to the UN. These statements debunk Tharoor’s claim about the Kremlin’s intentions.

All that BRICS does is gather together some of the world’s largest economies like China and India, key energy players like Russia and the UAE, and some of the world’s most promising emerging economies like Brazil and Ethiopia for voluntarily coordinating their efforts to reform the global financial system. The economic and political asymmetries between them limit the extent of multilateral cooperation, but they can still find some common ground, and key bilaterals and minilaterals can go even further in this regard.

The fact is that all BRICS countries have a shared interest in this despite the differences between them, including their respective ties with the West, which is why Tharoor’s prediction about these differences impeding financial cooperation won’t come to pass. The sooner that everyone corrects their misperceptions about BRICS’ intended function in the global systemic transition, the sooner that more accurate analytical and journalistic products will enter the global discourse to everyone’s benefit.

Source: Korybko.substack.com

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Climate Director’s Controversial Claims

Energy News Beat

Daily Standup Top Stories

Kamala Harris’s Far-Left ‘Climate Engagement Director’ Accuses Oil and Gas Workers of Committing ‘Ecoterrorism,’ Weaponizing ‘White Supremacy’ and ‘Toxic Patriarchy’

The Harris-Walz campaign’s climate engagement director has a long history of demonizing fossil fuels, going as far as to accuse oil and gas workers of committing “ecoterrorism” and advancing “individualism, white supremacy + toxic patriarchy,” a Washington Free […]

Overnight Success: Biden’s Climate Splurge Gives Billions to Nonprofit Newbies

Although there isn’t much public information available about the Justice Climate Fund, it appears to have been an overnight success. After gaining nonprofit status in August 2023, the organization was awarded $940 million by the Biden administration just […]

Top U.S. LNG Exports: China’s Gas Demand Is Booming

Cheniere Energy: Chinese demand for natural gas is set to jump by more than 50% by 2040. Cheniere expects China to become the world’s first market with 100 million tons of LNG demand very soon. […]

China is overtaking Europe as the top market for Russia’s pipeline gas

China is on track to become the largest market for Russia’s pipeline gas this year, overtaking Europe after the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine capped flows of the fuel to the region. Russia’s gas giant Gazprom PJSC exported 23.7 billion cubic […]

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

01:52 – Kamala Harris’s Far-Left ‘Climate Engagement Director’ Accuses Oil and Gas Workers of Committing ‘Ecoterrorism,’ Weaponizing ‘White Supremacy’ and ‘Toxic Patriarchy’

04:59 – Overnight Success: Biden’s Climate Splurge Gives Billions to Nonprofit Newbies

07:05 – Top U.S. LNG Exports: China’s Gas Demand Is Booming

08:22 – China is overtaking Europe as the top market for Russia’s pipeline gas

11:01 – Outro

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Stuart Turley: [00:00:10] Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Energy News Beat podcast. My name is Stu Turley President and CEO of the Sandstone Group. Today is October 23rd. Michael was out in Houston losing some grants. I’ll tell you what, we are busy around here. Let’s start with our stories. Kamala Harris, far left climate engagement director, accuses oil and gas workers of committing eco terrorism, weaponizing white supremacy and toxic psychiatry. Holy smokes, man, you cannot buy this kind of entertainment overnight. Success. The Next Story. Biden’s climate Surge gives billions for Nonprofit Newbies. There’s a whole lot to this story. Then I’ve got two stories with China. Top U.S. LNG Exports. China’s gas demand is booming. Follow along with this story. China is overtaking Europe as one of the top market for Russia pipeline gas. I’ll tell you what. This is just crazy. Before you started with this Kamala Harris story here. Just to let you know, I’ve got several podcasts coming out. The staff has done a great job getting them. We’ve got executives that we have been interviewing and I am one of the executives is George Mcmillan. He is the CEO over there at McMillan Geo Strategic Resources. And he and I have been talking about the geopolitical nature and what is going on with China and Taiwan. So this is going to play into our stories here. [00:01:51][100.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:52] So let’s start with the first story here. Kamala Harris, far left climate engagement director, accuses oil and gas workers of committing eco terrorism and the weaponizing white supremacy and toxic psychiatry. Kamala thorndyke called the fossil fuel industry ad deaf call that weaponized white supremacy. You can’t buy this kind of who are you? And if you went to the farm and shoveled it yourself there As Wolves campaign Climate Engagement director, it has a long history of demonizing fossil fuels, going as far as accusing oil and gas workers of committing the eco terrorism and advancing individual ism, white supremacy and toxic patriarchy. Washington Free Beacon Review found. This is actually disgusting. And when you sit back and think, here’s a quote out of the story. To have that level of money flowing so, so few people, CEOs and shareholders, there’s something evil about that. There’s something that is a system that is so unequal and unchallenged to human suffering, she said in her August 22nd interview with the Climate Journey podcast. I would challenge anyone who’s in the fossil fuel sector to consider putting their talents elsewhere else because in my mind, there’s no greater source of horror than continuing to cook the planet, which we’ve known for decades. My response to you is if you would love to come on this podcast, let’s talk facts. My challenge, Camellia, is if you would come on this podcast, let’s talk about what facts are the facts are. Over the last several years I’ve been documenting that we will the more we go to renewable wind and solar, which renewable is a funny term, we will use more fossil fuels because they are not sustainable both in physics and fiscally responsible. You are more than welcome on this podcast at any time. I would love to talk to you about not necessarily white supremacy because I believe your views are totally out to lunch, but I would love to know why you think a fiscally irresponsible plan of putting in wind and solar with our current grid situation and the current physics, Why is it that whenever there are wind and solar countries like Germany, the UK, let’s look at New York and New Jersey, California, all of them are failing financially because of the physics around the renewable wind and solar programs. It is not have anything to do with what you are talking about on this. Totally out to lunch. Interesting article. [00:04:59][186.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:59] I want to go to the next one here. Overnight success. Biden’s climate splurge gives billions to nonprofit newbies. There’s. Not much public information available about the Justice Climate Fund. The White House, $27 billion greenhouse Gas reduction fund, which aims to provide financial assistance to reduce carbon emissions and reduce pollution. This is a money grab. The Justice Climate Fund is not the only nonprofit newcomer to suddenly make it rich by the JG. RF. Within a month of gaining nonprofit status from the IRS. Holy smokes. I’ll tell you what, this is a grab for money. Let’s talk about physics. Let’s talk about the grid. Let’s talk about getting the lowest kilowatt per hour to everyone on the planet with the least amount of pollution. And that means we’ve got to use natural gas. Natural gas is great, but let’s capture the carbon. Let’s talk about having capturing the methane. Let’s work on that. This is not a one or the highway. I want to say let’s use all forms of energy, but let’s not fund $27 billion for something that is stupid. Is this. I’m sorry. This is absolutely get me worked up. Dan Mack is the critic of the Biden-Harris campaign climate agenda calls the spending splurge a slush fund. Darren, if you are out there, I’d love to have you on the podcast. Darren Back West is the director of Conservative Competitive Enterprise Institute Center for Energy and Environment, a sharp critic of the Biden administration. Climate change spending spree. It’s worse than a slush fund, a slush fund to create nonprofit slush funds. Well said there, and you are more than welcome. I would love to hear more about this story from you. [00:07:04][125.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:05] Let’s roll the next one. Your top U.S. LNG export. China’s gas demand is booming. Cheniere Energy. Chinese demand for Cheniere Energy. Chinese demand for natural gas is set to jump by more than 50% by 2040. Holy smokes, Batman. Cheniere also expects a first world market within a hundred million tons of LNG demand very soon. Shell, the world’s top LNG trader, expect the global LNG demand to surge by 50% by 2040. And I think this is a fabulous thing. I think that if we can get off of coal, it would be absolutely better for the environment to use natural gas like Vietnam. Just put in an LNG two natural gas power plant so they can take it right off the ship, put it in LNG storage and then right to the power plant. That is actually a very good use for that shell. The world’s largest trader expects global LNG demand to surged by 50%, driven by the high demand from Asia. I think it is phenomenal that they’re thinking of forward thinking on this. [00:08:21][76.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:22] Let’s now take this story and look at the next story. China is overtaking Europe as the top market for Russia’s pipeline gas. Gazprom exports natural gas to China in the first nine months of this year are up almost 40% from last year. That is huge. China is on track to become the largest market for Russia’s natural gas pipeline this year, overtaking Europe after the Kremlin’s war with Ukraine. Russia’s gas project, Gazprom, exported 23,000,000,000m³ of natural gas to China in the first nine months of this year. That is a lot. Now, this comes into my conversations with George Macmillan, and it is unbelievable, what with what’s going on. We have the war games going on in China right now, which they’re circling Taiwan. Is this about whether they’re going to invade Taiwan or my guess with George, we cover that because we also cover BRICs is going on right now with Russia meeting with President Z. He’s meeting with a lot of the African leaders. He’s meeting with the leaders from the Middle East. And BRICs is actually going to be a in a scenario where they’re moving off of the Petro dollar and also buying gas outside the U.S. dollar and they’re buying them in rubles or one in in. So this is a gigantic story. George has the opinion that this that they are not going to invade Taiwan. But this is actually doing the BRICs and taking a look at. The potential of the pipelines Japan, South Korea, Korea and the pipelines all going on to natural gas pipelines from Russia. This is what the old warmongers from the current administration do not want. They know they want everybody not to be reliant on that. That’s why the Nord Stream two pipeline got blown up as alleged by the and even forewarned by President Biden. This is a huge story, especially when you understand the back workings that is not mentioned in the story. That podcast with George there are three of them coming up and those will be coming out as well too. [00:11:01][158.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:01] So please, like subscribe, share. Tell your friends and if you are a coming up into the end of the year and you are looking for in the investments with tax advantages and you are needing a tax advantage, please reach out to us. Go to energy newsbeat.com/investments and then on the top menu bar take a look at it and it is energy newsbeat.co/investment hyper dash survey and see if this is oil and gas is an investment for you. We are currently very pleased with our investment in oil and gas and would love to share that information with you. Have a great day. Thanks, See you all soon. [00:11:01][0.0][648.0]

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