USA Energy Groups Respond to COP28 Outcome

Energy News Beat

Several U.S. energy groups have responded to the outcome of the COP28 climate summit, which wrapped up earlier this week.

The COP28 website highlighted that the summit concluded “with a historic agreement by 198 Parties to deliver a new era of climate action”.

“The parties agreed a landmark text named The UAE Consensus, that sets out an ambitious climate agenda to keep 1.5°C within reach,” the site noted.

“The UAE Consensus calls on parties to transition away from fossil fuels to reach net zero, encourages them to submit economy-wide Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), includes a new specific target to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030, and builds momentum towards a new architecture for climate finance,” it added.

In response to the COP28 final agreement, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Senior Vice President of Policy, Economics and Regulatory Affairs, Dustin Meyer, said in a statement posted on the API site, “demand for affordable, reliable energy will continue to rise as global population increases, and the world will need more sources of energy, not fewer”.

“The U.S. has led the world in both production gains and emissions reductions, and our industry is focused on building on this progress by accelerating innovation, advancing smart policies and investing in low-carbon technologies,” he added.

“We’re committed to working with policymakers on solutions that keep all options on the table – from renewables to oil and natural gas – and advance our shared goal for a cleaner, more secure energy future,” he continued.

In a statement sent to Rigzone commenting on the pact signed at the conclusion of COP28, National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA) President Erik Milito said, “the goals set by COP28 underscore the pivotal role of the American offshore industry in achieving the objectives of mitigating climate change while enhancing global living conditions”.

“As global energy demand continues to rise, the reality is the necessity for all energy sources to remain into the foreseeable future in order to effectively meet the energy security needs of a growing global society. The U.S. offshore region is uniquely situated to provide the energy sources Americans rely upon for a high quality of life, while also providing a roadmap for addressing emissions,” he added.

“The U.S. Gulf of Mexico stands out for consistently demonstrating the ability to produce oil and natural gas with lower greenhouse gas emission intensity than almost all other regions. Encouraging increased production in the Gulf of Mexico is not only in the national interest but also globally advantageous, preventing a shift to higher-emission sources to meet energy demands,” Milito continued.

“Moreover, the rapid expansion of the American offshore wind sector and the advancements in offshore carbon sequestration provide potent tools to address global emissions. While the strategic benefits of U.S. offshore wind are widely acknowledged, the Gulf of Mexico presents substantial potential for offshore carbon sequestration,” he went on to state.

Widespread adoption of carbon capture and storage is a key tool for achieving global climate change ambitions, Milito said in the statement.

“The Gulf of Mexico, with its abundant geological prospects for carbon storage, well-established energy infrastructure, proximity to industrial centers for emissions capture, and a readily available engineering and energy knowledge base, stands as a key player in this effort,” he added.

Milito went on to state that an American-led energy transition “offers vast advantages”.

“It allows significant strides against climate change while ensuring global access to reliable, affordable, and responsible energy production and boosting our national security,” he noted.

In another statement sent to Rigzone on the outcome of COP28, Energy Workforce and Technology Council President Molly Determan said, “as we evaluate the agreement stemming from COP28, we must recognize that oil and gas will continue to play a significant role in energy production for years to come”.

“Despite headlines claiming the death of fossil fuel production, the oil and gas industry has long prioritized finding innovative ways to reduce emissions and implement technologies that are shaping the future of energy production,” Determan added.

“The reality is that the oil and gas industry is leading the charge towards a more sustainable future, driving the energy revolution with emerging technologies such as CCS and expanding hydrogen production,” Determan continued.

Source: Rigzone.com

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‘Energy droughts’ in wind and solar can last nearly a week, research shows

Energy News Beat

Solar and wind power may be free, renewable fuels, but they also depend on natural processes that humans cannot control. It’s one thing to acknowledge the risks that come with renewable energy: the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow, but what happens when the grid loses both of these energy sources at the same time?

This phenomenon is known as a compound energy drought. In a new paper, researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) found that in some parts of the country, these energy droughts can last nearly a week.

“When we have a completely decarbonized grid and depend heavily on solar and wind, energy droughts could have huge amounts of impact on the grid,” said Cameron Bracken, an Earth scientist at PNNL and lead author on the paper.

Grid operators need to know when energy droughts will occur so they can prepare to pull energy from different sources. On top of that, understanding where, when, and for how long energy droughts occur will help experts manage grid-level battery systems that can store enough electricity to deploy during times when energy is needed most.

The team published the findings on October 31 in the journal Renewable Energy and will be presenting at this week’s annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

Hunting for cloudy, windless days

In the past, researchers studied compound energy droughts on a state or regional scale. However not much has been studied on a nationwide scale. To find out more about the risk of energy droughts over the entire continental U.S., the researchers dug into weather data and then used historical energy demand data to understand how often an energy drought occurs when that energy is needed the most.

The team examined four decades of hourly weather data for the continental U.S. and homed in on geographical areas where actual solar and wind energy plants operate today. Weather data included wind speeds at the height of wind turbines as well as the intensity of solar energy falling on solar panels. Times when the weather data showed stagnant air and cloudy skies translated into lower energy generation from the wind and solar plants—a compound energy drought.

“We essentially took a snapshot of the infrastructure as of 2020 and ran it through the 40 years of weather data, starting in 1980,” Bracken said. “We are basically saying, ‘Here is how the current infrastructure would have performed under historical weather conditions.’”

The researchers found that energy droughts can occur in any season across the continental U.S., though they vary widely in frequency and duration. In California, for instance, cloudy and windless conditions might last several days, whereas the same conditions might last for only a few hours in Texas. Utah, Colorado, and Kansas experience frequent energy droughts both over several-hour timescales as well as several-day timescales.

The Pacific Northwest and Northeast, meanwhile, seem to experience energy droughts that last several hours more frequently than several days. The different timescales (hourly versus daily) will help inform the energy drought’s impact on the grid—will it last just a few hours or several days?

Overall, researchers found that the longest potential compound energy drought on an hourly timescale was 37 hours (in Texas), while the longest energy drought on a daily timescale was six days (in California).

Energy drought at peak demand

Simply knowing the where and how of energy droughts is just one piece of the puzzle, Bracken said. He also stressed that a drought of solar and wind power won’t necessarily cause an energy shortage. Grid operators can turn to other sources of energy like hydropower, fossil fuels, or energy transmitted from other regions in the U.S.

But as the nation aims to move away from fossil fuels and rely more on solar and wind power, grid operators must understand whether energy droughts will occur during times when the demand for electricity might exceed supply. Climate change brings hotter summers and more intense winter storms, and these are times when not only do people use more energy to stay safe (for cooling or heating), but access to electricity might mean life or death.

To understand the possible connection between energy droughts and energy demand, the team mapped their historical, hypothetical generation data onto 40 years of historical energy demand data that also covered real power plants across the continent.

The data showed that “wind and solar droughts happen during peak demand events more than you would expect due to chance,” Bracken said, meaning that more often than not, windless and cloudless periods occurred during times when demand for power was high. For now, Bracken isn’t certain that the correlation means causation.

“This could be due to well-understood meteorological phenomenon such as inversions suppressing wind and increasing temperatures, but further study is needed,” Bracken said.

Energy storage for energy droughts

Studying patterns in the frequency and duration of energy droughts will also help inform the deployment of long-duration energy storage projects, said Nathalie Voisin, an Earth scientist at PNNL and co-author of the paper. The paper is the first to provide a uniform standard of what a compound energy drought is and how long it can last in different parts of the country.

“We’re providing insight on how to adequately design and manage multi-day storage. So when you know an energy drought is going to last for five hours or five days, you can incentivize storage to be managed accordingly,” Voisin said.

Next, Bracken and the team will extrapolate weather and demand data into the future to see how climate change will affect the frequency and duration of energy droughts. The team plans to model energy droughts all the way to the end of the century combined with evolving infrastructure.

Source: Techxplore.com

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OPEC Production Falls While U.S. Oil Output Hits New High

Energy News Beat
OPEC MOMR: OPEC’s crude production fell in November for the first time in months.
OPEC: U.S. oil output continued to reach new highs.
Venezuela and Libya, which are exempted from the OPEC+ deal, saw their crude oil production rise month-on-month, as did Kuwait.

OPEC’s crude oil production fell in November for the first time in months, while U.S. oil output continued to reach new highs, OPEC said in its monthly report on Wednesday.

Total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 27.84 million barrels per day (bpd) in November 2023, down by 57,000 bpd from October, amid lower production from Iraq, Angola, and Nigeria, OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed.

Venezuela and Libya, which are exempted from the OPEC+ deal, saw their crude oil production rise month-on-month, as did Kuwait, according to the secondary sources that OPEC uses to track its supply to the market.

Saudi Arabia, the leader of the cartel, increased its production slightly, by 12,000 bpd to 8.998 million bpd—in line with the Kingdom’s pledge to pump around 9 million bpd as part of its voluntary cut of 1 million bpd, which was extended by the end of March 2024.

The official OPEC production numbers are in line with the Reuters survey from earlier this month, which showed that OPEC’s oil production dropped in November for the first monthly decline since July as Nigeria and Iraq saw lower shipments.

At the same time, OPEC noted in its report that “US crude and condensate production as well as NGL output continue to reach new highs. Total US liquids output reached a record 21.6 mb/d in September due to persistent outperformance of onshore and offshore production.”

OPEC expects U.S. liquids supply to grow by 1.3 million bpd in 2023.

The non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8 million bpd for 2023, driven by the U.S., Brazil, Kazakhstan, Norway, Guyana, Mexico, and China, the cartel said.

In a commentary on crude oil price movements in recent weeks, OPEC said that oil futures prices “experienced a significant downturn, marked by heavy selloffs amidst a highly volatile futures market.”

“The market dynamic was fuelled by exaggerated concerns about oil demand growth, which negatively impacted market sentiment,” the cartel noted.

Source: Oilprice.com

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Bulgaria Removes Gas Transit Tax to Ease Tensions with Hungary and Secure Schengen Membership

Energy News Beat

Bulgaria has announced that it will remove the tax on the transfer of Russian gas passing through its territory in transit after Hungary threatened to block its application to join the Schengen area, the British newspaper revealed The Financial Times.

Romania and Bulgaria have been waiting more than a decade to win unanimous approval from European Union countries for Schengen membership, and their efforts were recently renewed after Austria announced its willingness to lift its veto in exchange for meeting other migration-related demands.

“But on Monday, Budapest issued an ultimatum on gas at a meeting of EU officials in Brussels,” the paper said, citing three sources briefed on the progress of the discussions.

The threat is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s latest move to undermine EU consensus ahead of this week’s leaders’ summit, where he has vowed to block financial and political support for Ukraine, the paper said.

“This is our old friend Orban again,” said a diplomat with direct knowledge of the situation. “They are linking all the issues and blocking them,” added a second person.

The Hungarian leader, considered Vladimir Putin’s closest partner in the EU and NATO, has previously criticized the tax that Bulgaria introduced for transit through one of the last remaining routes for the supply of blue fuel from Russia after the start of the war in Ukraine.

Bulgaria introduced an excise tax of BGN 20 per megawatt hour of transit Russian gas in October, the revenue from which has not yet been collected. The main goal is to push the Russians out of the European market, explained the authorities in Sofia. The tax will be imposed on Gazprom, not the buyers of its gas, but Hungary and Serbia have warned that the measure threatens their imports.

Hours after Hungary’s threat, the leaders of Bulgaria’s two main government parties announced at a press briefing that they would delay the gas transit fee to avoid damaging “upstream countries” and jeopardizing Bulgaria’s Schengen hopes. .

“We should not miss this chance because of the tax,” said Boyko Borisov, former prime minister and leader of the center-right GERB party.

The Bulgarian government said it was still looking for an equivalent of the gas transit tax at the EU level in a bid to maintain pressure on member states to give up energy imports from Russia.

About half of Russian pipeline supplies to the region pass through Bulgaria, with Hungary being one of the main end customers. Budapest has successfully fought to delay and secure an exemption from EU sanctions and bans aimed at weaning the bloc’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels, with Orbán claiming he is following geopolitical and “physical reality” by refusing to seek alternative suppliers.

Hungarian government officials have not commented on the publication’s sources’ claims.

“It’s hard to understand exactly what Orbán wants from all this,” said a third EU diplomat who participated in the discussions with the Hungarians this week. “The only conclusion . . . is that he has decided that now is the time to block everything possible.”

In turn, the edition Hungary Today notes that from Budapest’s point of view the postponement of the transit fee is of particular importance, since the main route for the majority of the natural gas delivered to the country under the long-term contract with Gazprom is the Turkish Stream gas pipeline passing through Bulgaria . “Gazprom” had to pay a separate fee for this – although it did not do it and had no intention of doing it,” the editors emphasize.

The measure was also strongly criticized by Greece and North Macedonia, the publication adds.

“Criticisms from the Hungarian and Greek sides are relevant, because these two countries will also vote for Bulgaria’s entry into the Schengen area,” recalls Hungary Today.

Source: World-today-news.com

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Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024

Energy News Beat

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond.

With the inflation rate easing and the economy holding in, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%.

Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That’s less than what the market had been pricing, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated.

Markets had widely anticipated the decision to stay put, which could end a cycle that has seen 11 hikes, pushing the fed funds rate to its highest level in more than 22 years. There was uncertainty, though, about how ambitious the FOMC might be regarding policy easing. Following the release of the decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 400 points, surpassing 37,000 for the first time.

The committee’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates another four cuts in 2025, or a full percentage point. Three more reductions in 2026 would take the fed funds rate down to between 2%-2.25%, close to the long-run outlook, though there was considerable dispersion in the estimates for the final two years.

Markets, though, followed up the meeting and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference by pricing in an even more aggressive rate-cut path, anticipating 1.5 percentage points in reductions next year, double the FOMC’s indicated pace.

In a possible nod that hikes are over, the statement said that the committee would take multiple factors into account for “any” more policy tightening, a word that had not appeared previously.

“While the weather is still cold outside, the Fed has suggested a potential thawing of frozen high interest rates over the next few months,” said Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at asset management giant BlackRock.

Along with the interest rate hikes, the Fed has been allowing up to $95 billion a month in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off its balance sheet. That process has continued, and there has been no indication the Fed is willing to curtail that portion of policy tightening.

Inflation ‘eased over the past year’

The developments come amid a brightening picture for inflation that had spiked to a 40-year high in mid-2022.

“Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That’s very good news,” Chair Jerome Powell said during a news conference.

That echoed new language in the post-meeting statement. The committee added the qualifier that inflation has “eased over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as “elevated.” Fed officials see core inflation falling to 3.2% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024, then to 2.2% in 2025. Finally, it gets back to the 2% target in 2026.

Economic data released this week showed both consumer and wholesale prices were little changed in November. By some measures, though, the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target. Bank of America’s calculations indicate that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be around 3.1% year over year in November, and actually could hit a 2% six-month annualized rate, meeting the central bank’s goal.

The statement also noted that the economy “has slowed,” after saying in November that activity had “expanded at a strong pace.”

In the news conference, Powell said: “Recent indicators suggest that growth in economic activity has slowed substantially from the outsized pace seen in the third quarter. Even so, GDP is on track to expand around 2.5% for the year as a whole.”

Committee members upgraded gross domestic product to grow at a 2.6% annualized pace in 2023, a half percentage point increase from the last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, roughly unchanged from the previous outlook. Projections for the unemployment rate were largely unchanged, at 3.8% in 2023 and rising to 4.1% in subsequent years.

Officials have stressed their willingness to hike rates again if inflation flares up. However, most have said they can be patient now as they watch the impact the previous policy tightening moves are having on the U.S. economy.

Stubbornly high prices have exacted a political toll on President Joe Biden, whose approval rating has suffered in large part because of negative sentiment on how he has handled the economy. There had been some speculation that the Fed could be reluctant to make any dramatic policy actions during a presidential election year, which looms large in 2024.

However, with real rates, or the difference between the fed funds rate and inflation, running high, the Fed would be more likely to act if the inflation data continues to cooperate.

Source: Cnbc.com

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Wall Street has discovered what’s really driving U.S. stocks higher in 2023. The explanation isn’t as simple as one might expect.

Energy News Beat

As the year draws to a close, stock-market professionals can recite a litany of explanations for why the U.S. market has marched higher this year.

But a group of Wall Street strategists believe chalking up the equity market’s gains to signs that the U.S. economy is heading for a “soft landing,” or that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates next year, doesn’t tell the full story.

Those who have been trawling about for a more comprehensive explanation have found their answer by closely scrutinizing the balance sheets of the world’s largest central banks, with a particular emphasis on the Fed.

Here’s what they found: While the Fed has been paring back the size of its balance sheet, beneath the surface, central banks have boosted support for markets by allowing bank reserves to expand, increasing the amount of capital available to be deployed into markets and the economy.

Historically, when this happens, securities prices rise, even if their advance doesn’t seem justified based on the strength of the economy, or the outlook for corporate earnings, according to research from former Citigroup strategist Matt King, who now runs Satori Insights, his own independent research shop.

“It is reserve changes that correlate best with markets. They are correlated to changes in equities and changes in credit spreads, and there is just enough of a lag that it can’t be that way round,” King told MarketWatch during a phone interview.

So how is liquidity increasing?

At first brush, this explanation might seem contradictory.

Some investors might wonder how the Fed can simultaneously inject more liquidity into the financial system while reducing the size of its balance sheet.

But according to King, the fact that the Fed has reduced its bondholdings to $7.8 trillion, from $9 trillion at its peak last year, isn’t what investors should be focusing on.

Instead of the Fed’s shrinking balance sheet, what really matters is how reserves in the U.S. banking system have increased by $500 billion since January, according to King.

The Fed isn’t alone in this. Instead of withdrawing $1 trillion in liquidity after declaring war on inflation in 2022, the world’s biggest central banks instead injected roughly an equivalent amount, King’s research shows.

SATORI INSIGHTS

Rising bank reserves are being driven by a number of factors, including the continuing drain of the Fed’s reverse-repo facility. Counterparties have removed more than $1 trillion from the facility since April, according to Fed data.

SATORI INSIGHTS

The wave of liquidity support for markets began late last year, around the time the S&P 500 index bottomed in October 2022. Initially, it was driven by the Bank of Japan, People’s Bank of China and European Central Bank, King said.

Then the Fed joined the party in earnest in the spring, when it moved to support the U.S. banking system following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. More recently, the drain of money out of the Fed’s reverse-repo facility has been the main driver.

Wall Street takes notice

King is hardly alone in taking a close look at liquidity. Recently, top analysts at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group and other investment banks have discussed the impact that the RRP drain and money flowing out of the U.S. Treasury General Account has had on markets.

“The first 10 days of December continued the recent trends of expanding U.S. liquidity, driven by draws from the RRP facility and the Treasury General Account,” said a team of cross-asset analysts at Goldman Sachs in a recent report obtained by MarketWatch.

“Together with the lagged-behind effects from the U.S. policy impulse easing in the aftermath of the regional-bank funding pressures earlier in the year, the high liquidity should support risk-asset performance and tight credit spreads into year-end,” the Goldman team added.

By Goldman’s count, banking reserves expanded by roughly $50 billion on net during the first week of December alone.

GOLDMAN SACHS

Strategists at the investment bank expect this trend should continue to support stocks through January, until the Treasury releases its next update on its plans for issuing bonds and Treasury bills, which could impact the reverse-repo facility. The facility has already seen more than $1 trillion depart since April, according to the Fed’s data.

‘QE-like’ returns

If the liquidity impulse fades, stocks could run into trouble, King said.

But whatever happens early next year, King hopes to convey that if the market’s rebound in 2023 seemed “QE-like” — a reference to the Fed’s postcrisis and postpandemic bond-buying programs — then there is a reason for that.

U.S. stock indexes have now erased all of their losses from last year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA finishing Wednesday at a fresh record north of 37,000.

The S&P 500 SPX has gained 22.6% through Wednesday’s close to 4,707.09, its highest closing level since January 2022.

Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP is up more than 40% year to date.

“There is a reason why QE is so powerful,” King said. “QE creates new money in the form of reserves, but not only that, it withdraws bonds and bills from the market, so the private sector then has more money, and fewer places to invest that money.”

“When reserves change, that alters the balance between how much money private investors have got, and the amount of securities available to invest in,” he said.

“When you give investors less money, and more securities to invest in, then we see prices go down. Reserves were coming down in 2022 when everything was selling off. But this year, that has stopped.”

Source: Marketwatch-com.cdn.ampproject.org

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EU to be left holding the baby as US plans Ukraine exit

Energy News Beat

Europe must decide whether to stick with America, which is set to drop the war in Ukraine, or revert to China as continent faces social unrest and economic stagnation

Writing about the relationship between the European Union and the United States over the Ukraine war, I am reminded of a sexually suggestive hook from David Bowie’s “Suffragette City”: “Wham! Bam! Thank you, Ma’am!”

It appears Washington is about to do a David Bowie on Europe over Ukraine. Speaking of the late musical genius, there is also a memorable line from another song, “Diamond Dogs”, from the eponymous album: “This ain’t rock ‘n roll. This is genocide!” But I think I am going to take a break from writing depressing columns about Palestine today.

Lately, you may have noticed that mainstream Anglo-American media are suddenly all warning about an impending Russian victory in Ukraine. This is after two years of cheerleading by the same people who prophesied Ukraine would win totally and the Putin regime would collapse, any day now. Oh yes, and Beijing was gearing up for an invasion of Taiwan!

Here’s a useful learning moment: whenever you see a strong consensus forming that brooks no opposition by the Western media and their ruling elites, bet on the opposite. It’s not foolproof but you would have a much better shot at realising what’s really going on.

Some Western pundits and former officials now conjure up apocalyptic visions of the end of Europe or even Western civilisation itself.

“Putin’s Russia is closing in on a devastating victory.” “Europe’s foundations are trembling.” “US warns it’s running out of money for Ukraine war.” “The West wavers on Ukraine.”

The Washington Post, one of the most gung-ho pro-Ukraine news outlets in the US, admitted last week that “Ukraine has retaken only about 200 square miles of territory, at a cost of thousands of dead and wounded and billions in Western aid.”

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Cop’s pledge to move away from fossil fuels is a farce

Energy News Beat

So, a deal has been reached. The world has agreed on what Cop 28 president Sultan al-Jaber has called a ‘robust action to keep 1.5 Celsius in reach’. The world is to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels.

And meanwhile, back in the real world? If the world really had just made a meaningful commitment to end the use of fossil fuels, you might have expected shares in oil companies to have crashed this morning. But have they heck. Shell, BP, all are unmoved. It is expansionary business as usual. The UAE has invested $150 billion (£120 billion) to increase oil production by half to five million barrels a day by 2027. In the US, oil and gas production reached a new record last year. Even coal production was up 2 per cent. There is enough new gas production in the pipeline to increase output from 11.4 billion cubic feet of gas per day to over 20 billion cubic feet. We can be very thankful for that in Europe – it is us, feeling the absence of Russian gas, who are the main customers. The US agreed to spend a piffling £20 million of aid money on poor countries. The US can’t be blamed for seeking energy security, but can anyone say what was the real difference between having the Biden administration at this conference and having a Trump administration snub it?

As for China, it has built 182 new coal-fired power plants in the past two and a half years – since president Xi Jinping announced he was setting his country a target to reach Net Zero by 2060, comfortably beyond his own reign, in spite of his moves to guarantee himself lifetime presidency. Brazil, which was pressing right up until the last day for Cop 28 to agree to ‘phase out’ fossil fuels rather than simply transition away from them? It plans to expand oil production in its offshore fields to become the world’s fourth largest producer by 2030. Canada, which joined Brazil in demanding a ‘phase out’? It has increased oil production by 375,000 barrels per day over the past two years.

Never mind Cop 28 and its 98,000 gas-guzzling, private jet-using delegates – never has there been such a bonanza in fossil fuels. If this is supposed to be the ‘beginning of the end’ for fossil fuels, as the EU’s climate envoy put it, it is a mighty strange one.

Those who have been carefully watching proceedings over the past couple of weeks may have noticed a subtle difference between the language being used by different countries. While activists and numerous groups were certain they were demanding a phase out of all fossil fuels, US climate envoy John Kerry was talking only about ‘unabated’ fossil fuels. Britain, too, was using this language. The difference is that the US position allows for carbon capture and storage – which could allow for the burning of fossil fuels with no, or with very low, emissions. There is, though, a very big question over this strategy: who is going to pay for carbon capture, if indeed it can succeed as a commercial technology at all? We have had carbon capture since the 1970s – when ironically it was devised by the oil and gas industry as a means of forcing more fossil fuels out of declining wells. But if it is going to be used without that incentive, someone is going to have to pay – as well as finding the room to store all the carbon. Moreover, it is one thing to capture the carbon from the chimney of a gas-fired power stations, quite another to try to capture it from the exhaust of a jet plane.

Don’t, though, be fooled by grand words of transitioning away from fossil fuels. There is scant sign that the world intends to live up to its grand words.

Source: Spectator.co.uk

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3 Rivers Energy Partners to Transform Jim Beam Distillery Byproduct into RNG and Fertilizer

Energy News Beat

3 Rivers Energy Partners has introduced a sustainability project where its facility in Boston, Kentucky will utilize anaerobic digesters to process spent distillers grains from Beam Suntory’s adjacent Booker Noe Distillery, which produces Jim Beam, to generate renewable natural gas (RNG) to power the distillery.

The project will help the Booker Noe Distillery to replace 65% of its current conventional energy sources with RNG, thereby reducing its greenhouse gas emissions. The digesters will produce a high-quality, low-cost fertilizer for local farmers to replenish cropland.

The anaerobic digester will reduce the distillery’s greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and support regenerative agricultural practices, once completed. It is expected to produce up to 1.3 million MMBtu of RNG annually from spent grain.

“Our goal is to help Beam Suntory create a sustainable future for their company and the planet,” said John Rivers, CEO of 3 Rivers Energy Partners. “With this process, we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, create new renewable energy, and help contribute to the agriculture needed to create their products. It is truly a full circle sustainability approach.”

Source: Energytech.com

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BRICS and the Resistance Axis: a convergence of goals

Energy News Beat

MOSCOW – Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a notable pit stop in the UAE and Saudi Arabia to meet, respectively, Emirati President Mohammad bin Zayed (MbZ) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) before flying back to Moscow to meet Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.

The three key issues in all three meetings, confirmed by diplomatic sources, were Gaza, OPEC+, and BRICS expansion. They are, of course, interlinked.

The Russia-Iran strategic partnership is developing at breakneck speed, alongside Russia-Saudi Arabia (especially on OPEC+) and Russia-UAE (investments). This is already leading to stark shifts in defense interconnection across West Asia. The long-term implications for Israel, way beyond the Gaza tragedy, are stark.

Putin told Raisi something that was extraordinary on so many levels:

“When I was flying over Iran, I wanted to land in Tehran and to meet you. But I was informed that you wanted to visit Moscow. Relations between our countries are growing rapidly. Please convey my best wishes to the Supreme Leader, who supports our relations.”

Putin’s reference to “flying over Iran” directly connects with four armed Sukhoi Su-35s flying in formation, escorting the presidential plane over 4,000 km (if measured as a straight line) from Moscow to Abu Dhabi, without any landing or refueling.

As every stunned military analyst remarked, an American F-35 is capable of flying at best 2,500 km without refueling. Yet the most important element is that both MbZ and MbS authorized the Russian Su-35s escorts over their territory – which is something extremely unusual in diplomatic circles.

And that leads us to the key takeaway. With a single move on the aerial chessboard, compounded with the subsequent clincher with Raisi, Moscow accomplished four tasks:

Putin proved – graphically speaking – that this is a new West Asia where the US hegemon is a secondary actor; destroyed the neocon political myth of Russian “isolation;” demonstrated ample military supremacy; and lastly, as the start of Russia’s BRICS presidency approaches, showed that it retains all its crucial geopolitical and geoeconomic cards.

Kill them, but softly 

The original five BRICS – led by the Russia-China strategic partnership – will open their doors to three major West Asian powers Iran, Saudi Arabia, and UAE on 1, January, 2024. Their accession to the multipolar powerhouse offers these countries an exceptional platform for broader markets, and is likely to accompany a flurry of investments and tech exchanges.

The long-term, sophisticated game played by Russia-China is leading to a complete, tectonic change in the geoeconomics and geopolitics of West Asia.

BRICS 10 leadership – considering that the 11th member, Argentina, for the moment, is a wild card at best – even has the potential, under a Russian presidency, to become an effective counterpart to the toothless UN.

And that leads us to the complex interaction between BRICS and the Axis of Resistance.

At first, there were reasons to suspect that the bland condemnation of the genocide in Gaza by the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) was a sign of cowardice.

Yet a renewed appraisal may reveal everything is evolving organically when it comes to the intersection of the Big Picture designed by the late Iranian Quds Force Commander General Qassem Soleimani with the meticulous micro-planning by Gaza’s Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who knows the Israeli mentality inside out and considered in detail its devastating military response.

Arguably, the most incandescent focus of detailed discussions in Moscow these past few days is that we may be approaching the point where “a signal” will unleash a concerted Axis of Resistance response.

For the moment, what we have are sporadic attacks: Hezbollah destroying Israel’s communication towers facing the southern Lebanon border, Iraq’s resistance forces attacking US bases in Iraq and Syria, and Yemen’s Ansarallah concretely blocking the Red Sea for Israeli ships. All that does not form a concerted, coordinated offensive – yet.

And that would explain the desperation within the Biden administration in Washington, complete with rumors that it needs Israel to finish Plan Gaza between Christmas and the start of January. Not only have the global optics of the Gaza assault become horrifyingly unsustainable, but most of all, a lengthier military campaign dramatically raises the likelihood of a “signal” to the Axis of Resistance.

And that will result in the end of all the Hegemon’s elaborate plans for West Asia.

The geopolitical goals of Zionism are quite clear: re-establish its self-constructed aura of dominance in West Asia and maintain steady control over US foreign policy and the military alliance.

Depravity is a key component for accomplishing these goals. It’s so easy to bomb, shell, and burn ultra-soft civilian targets, including thousands of women and children, turning Gaza into a vast cemetery, while the White Man’s Burden Club urges Israeli occupation forces to kill them, of course, but more silently.

Cue to toxic Atlanticist and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen offering bribes, in person, to Egypt’s and Jordan’s leaders – $10 billion to Cairo and $5 billion to Amman – as confirmed with Brussels diplomats. That’s the mind-numbing EU solution to stopping the Gaza genocide.

All Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Jordanian King Abdullah bin al-Hussein would need to do is to “facilitate” the forced exodus and Final Ethnic Cleansing of Gaza to their respective territories.

Because the eschatological goal of Zionism remains an undiluted Final Solution, whatever happens in the battleground. And, of course, as the 7 October Hamas-led Al-Aqsa Flood operation suggests, to destroy Jerusalem’s Islamic Al-Aqsa Mosque and build a Jewish Third Temple on top of its ashes.

What happens when “the signal” comes 

So what we have is essentially Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Emigration-or-Annihilation plan – versus what veteran West Asia expert Alastair Crooke has memorably coined as “Sykes-Picot is dead.” That phrase means that Arab and Iranian inclusion in BRICS will eventually rewrite the rules in West Asia, to the detriment of the Zionist project.

There’s even a strong possibility this time around that Israel’s certified war crimes in Gaza will be prosecuted, as Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslim-majority nations, with full BRICS support, form a Global South-recognized commission to take Tel Aviv and its armed forces to court.

Forget the tainted ICC, servile as it remains to the Hegemon’s Rules-Based Order. The BRICS will help usher international law back to the forefront of the global scene, as intended when the UN was born in 1945 before it was castrated.

The Gaza genocide is also forcing all latitudes along the Global South to be more inclusive – as in delving into the wisdom of our common, intertwined pre-modern history. Everyone with a conscience has been forced to dig deeply into oneself to find explanations for the Inexcusable. In this sense, we are all Palestinians now.

As it stands, no power – the west because it refuses it; the BRICS and the Global South because they have not yet made their play – has been capable of stopping a Final Solution conducted by a racist, ethnocentrist ideology.

Yet that also opens the startling possibility that no power will be strong enough to stop the Axis of Resistance when the “signal” comes to pull the curtain down on the Zionist Project. By that time, the Axis will have a supreme moral imperative, recognized, even urged, by populations globally.

So that’s where we are now: evaluating the incandescent symmetry between impotence and imperative. The deadlock will be broken – perhaps sooner than we all expect.

That evokes a comparison with a previous deadlock. The current impasse between a perverse, trashy version of Hebraic “civilization” and emerging Islamic nationalism – let’s call it “civilizational Islam” – mirrors where we were in December 2021, when Russian-proposed treaties on the “indivisibility of security” were turned down by Washington. In hindsight, that was the last chance for a peaceful way out of the clash between the Heartland and the Rimland.

The Hegemon rejected it. Russia made its play – and accelerated exponentially the decline of the Hegemon.

The song remains the same, from the steppes of Donbas to the oil fields of West Asia. How can the multipolar Global South – increasingly represented by the expanded BRICS – manage a raging, fearful, out-of-control imperialist west staring into the abyss of moral, political, and financial collapse?

Source: New.thecradle.co

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