BRICS candidate becomes latest African defaulter

Energy News Beat

Ethiopia had until December 25 to make a $33 million coupon payment to bondholders, but failed to do so

Ethiopia has become the latest African nation to default in recent years, failing to make a $33 million interest payment on its only international government bond after a 14-day grace period expired earlier this week.

The East African country had been scheduled to pay the bond coupon on December 11, but a two-week grace period allowed it until Monday to do so before officially defaulting.

The country’s finance ministry previously announced that Addis Ababa’s efforts to renegotiate the bond terms prior to the payment deadline had failed. The parties were said to have disagreed on how long to extend the maturity and spread out repayments on the single $1 billion international bond, which is due to mature in December 2024.

Last Thursday, Ethiopia’s finance minister Ahmed Shide said the government did not want to make the payment because it “wants to treat all creditors in the same way,” Bloomberg reported, citing state TV.

Hinjat Shamil, senior reform advisor at the Ministry of Finance, also told Bloomberg on Monday that the payment “had not and will not be made.”

The Horn of Africa country, which requested a debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework in early 2021, had been able to service interest payments on its international bond until now.

Africa’s second most populous nation has now joined a growing list of developing countries that have defaulted on Eurobonds in recent years, including Zambia, Ghana, and Sri Lanka.

Ethiopia has been under severe economic pressure as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and a two-year brutal civil war in the country’s northern Tigray region, which ended a year ago.

Last month, Addis Ababa reached an agreement in principle with its bilateral creditors, including China, on an interim debt-service suspension.

The Africa state, which will join the BRICS group, currently comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, in January, is additionally seeking a four-year loan from the International Monetary Fund.

Ethiopia’s admission to the BRICS has been described by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as a turning point for the East African country’s economy.

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Cheniere reduces Sabine Pass LNG expansion plans

Energy News Beat

US LNG exporting giant Cheniere now plans to build two instead of three liquefaction trains as part of the Sabine Pass expansion project in Louisiana.

Sabine Pass currently has a capacity of about 30 mtpa following the launch of the sixth train in February last year, while Cheniere’s three-train Corpus Christi plant in Texas can produce about 15 mtpa of LNG and is undergoing expansion.

Earlier this year, Cheniere initiated the pre-filing review process with the US FERC for the Sabine Pass Stage 5 expansion project.

The original plans included the construction of three large-scale liquefaction trains, each with a production capacity of about 6.5 mtpa of LNG, a boil-off-gas (BOG) reliquefaction unit with a production capacity of 0.75 mtpa of LNG, and also two 220,000-cbm LNG storage tanks.

However, Cheniere now aims to construct two LNG trains with a nameplate capacity of about 7 mtpa each using ConocoPhillips liquefaction technology, according to a draft resource report filed with the FERC in November.

The Houston-based firm did not say why it decided to reduce the size of the planned expansion project.

LNG Prime invited Cheniere to comment on the matter.

The proposed Sabine Pass expansion facilities will be interconnected and operated with the existing terminal, while Cheniere is also proposing an increase in the authorized maximum loading rate of LNG carriers and simultaneous loading capabilities for the three existing jetties.

Sabine Pass is proposing to increase loading to about 14,000 cbm per hour of LNG from the two new storage tanks to the existing marine berths.

To deliver about 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas to the expansion project, Cheniere’s unit Sabine Crossing proposes to build a new, 48-inch diameter natural gas pipeline of about 5.3 miles in length extending from Jefferson County, Texas, and into the LNG terminal in Cameron Parish, Louisiana.

The Sabine Pass LNG terminal is currently authorized to produce and export 1661.94 Bcf/y of LNG (33.01 mtpa).

Cheniere said the expansion project would produce an additional 843.15 Bcf/y of LNG, equivalent to about of 16.83 mtpa of LNG for export or 2,050 MMscfd.

Also, the marine berths would be able to accommodate the total project exports of 49.84 mtpa, it said.

Cheniere said that engineering for the expansion project has progressed from preliminary design and is currently in the front-end engineering and design stage.

Cheniere engaged Bechtel to complete FEED.

Detailed engineering is expected to start in the third quarter of 2025, the firm said.

According to Cheniere, the LNG exporter aims to start construction in February 2026 and to complete it in October 2030.

The commissioning and launch of the new project is expected to be completed in June 2031.

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Russian energy revenues recover to pre-Ukraine conflict level – Deputy PM

Energy News Beat

The sanctions-hit nation earned nearly $100 billion through sales of oil and gas, Alexander Novak says

The proceeds from Russia’s export of oil and gas contributed about $100 billion (nine trillion rubles) to the budget this year, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has revealed, close to revenue levels recorded in 2021, before the Ukraine conflict.

The senior government official told Rossiya 24 TV on Wednesday that more than half of Russia’s total export revenues came from the energy sector, emphasizing that sales of oil and gas ensured stable income to the country’s budget.

Russia’s energy sector contributed “about 27% to the gross domestic product (GDP),” according to Novak, who specified that proceeds from oil and gas accounted for “nearly 57% of the total export revenue of our entire country.”

He also said that half of Russia’s energy exports this year have gone to China, while India’s share had risen to 40% in two years. Meanwhile, Europe’s share in Russia’s crude exports has fallen 90% over the past two years, from 40-45% in 2021 to about 4-5% this year, Novak added.

Russian energy companies were forced to redirect supplies to Asia after exports to EU dwindled amid Ukraine-related sanctions and the sabotage of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines.

The G7 and EU countries last year introduced a cap on the price of Russian seaborne oil. The punitive measure bans Western companies from providing insurance and other services to shipments of Russian crude unless the cargo is purchased at or below the $60-per-barrel price cap. Similar restrictions were introduced in February for exports of Russian petroleum products. The measures were intended to substantially reduce Moscow’s profits from energy.

Asserting that the price caps are illegal, Russia opted to halt energy supplies to the nations that joined the measure.

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The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, December 2023 Update

Energy News Beat

Down from 2022 highs: San Francisco -12%, Seattle -11%, Portland -6%; Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas -5%; Dallas -4%, San Diego -2%, Los Angeles -1%. But new highs in 8 metros.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Today’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for “October” is a three-month moving average of home prices whose sales were entered into public records in August, September, and October. That’s the time frame here. It uses the “sales-pairs method,” comparing the sales price of the same house over time, thereby eliminating the issues associated with median prices and average prices (see “Methodology” toward the end of the article). But it lags.

The story here is about the individual metros of the 20 metros covered by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index where home prices soared to ridiculous levels, multiplying by factors of three and four since 2000.

The “most splendid Housing bubbles,” we started calling them since about 2017 to track their astounding surge – and what their fate is now.

Nine of the 20 metros in the Case-Shiller Index were below their peaks in mid-2022. Nine metros had month-to-month declines (Seattle, Denver, Tampa, Washington DC, Portland, San Francisco, San Diego, Dallas, Minneapolis). And 8 of the 20 metros set new highs.

Prices below their 2022 peaks in 9 of the 20 metros in the Case-Shiller index (% from their respective peak, Case-Shiller month of peak):

San Francisco Bay Area: -11.7% (May 2022)
Seattle: -10.9% (May 2022)
Portland:  -5.8% (May 2022)
Las Vegas: -5.3% (July 2022)
Denver:  -5.2% (May 2022)
Phoenix:  -5.1% (June 2022)
Dallas: -4.4% (June 2022)
San Diego: -2.1% (May 2022)
Los Angeles: -0.8% (May 2022)

Prices set new highs in 8 of the 20 metros in the index (% year-over-year):

New York metro: +7.1%
Detroit: +8.1%
Chicago: +6.9%
Boston: +6.6%
Miami: +6.7%
Cleveland: +6.4%
Charlotte: +6.0%
Atlanta: +5.3%

The most splendid housing bubbles by metro.

San Francisco Bay Area: 

Month to month: -0.6%
Year over year: +1.6%
From the peak in May 2022: -11.7%.

The closeup of San Francisco:

And here is the long view:

Seattle metro:

Month to month: -0.5%.
Year over year: +1.5%.
From the peak in May 2022: -10.9%.

The closeup of Seattle:

And the long view:

Portland metro:

Month to month: -0.9%.
Year over year: -0.6%.
From the peak in May 2022: -5.8%.

The closeup of Portland:

And the long view:

Las Vegas metro:

Month to month: +0.3%.
Year over year: +0.1%.
From the peak in July 2022: -5.3%.

Denver metro:

Month to month: -0.6%.
Year over year: +1.6%.
From the peak in May 2022: -5.2%.

The closeup of Denver:

And the long view:

Phoenix metro:

Month to month: +0.6%.
Year over year: +0.9%.
From the peak in June 2022: -5.1%.

Dallas metro:

Month to month: -0.3%.
Year over year: +1.2%.
From the peak in June 2022: -4.4%.

The closeup of Dallas:

The long view:

San Diego metro:

Month to month: 0.1%.
Year over year: +7.2%.
From the peak in May 2022: -2.1%.

The closeup of San Diego:

The long view:

Los Angeles metro

Month to month: +0.4%.
Year over year: +6.1%.
From the peak in May 2022: -0.8%.

Tampa metro: 

Month to month: -0.02%.
Year over year: +2.3%.
October and September were just a hair above the previous high of July 2022.

Here is the closeup:

And the long view:

Washington D.C. metro:

Month to month: -0.3%.
Year over year: +4.7%.
The prior month had been a new high.

Closeup of Washington DC:

Long view:

Boston metro:

Month to month: +0.3%.
Year over year: +6.6%.
Set new high.

Miami metro:

Month to month: +0.6%
Year over year: +6.7%.
Set new high.

New York metro:

Month to month: +0.5%.
Year over year: +7.1%.
Set new high.

To be included in this list of the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles, the metro must have experienced a home price inflation since 2000 of at least 180%. The indices were set at 100 for the year 2000. So today’s index values of 427 for Miami, 420 for Los Angeles, and 419 for San Diego are up respectively by 327%, 320%, and 319% since 2000.

The remaining 6 of the 20 metros in the Case-Shiller index (Chicago, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit, and Cleveland) had far less home price inflation than 180% since 2000, and don’t qualify for this list of the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles. But in 2022 and 2023, these metros had big home price increases in percentage terms, and the month-to-month increases continued in October, except for Minneapolis, where the index has now fallen for the third month in a row.

Chicago, with an index value of 198 is up by “only” 98% from 2000, and is therefore among the six Case-Shiller metros that don’t qualify for this list. But it saw a massive surge since May 2020 – thank you, halleluiah Fed money-printing – so here it is anyway:

Month to month: +0.2%
Year over year: +6.9%.
Set new high.

Methodology. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to when the same houses sold previously. The price changes are weighted based on how long ago the prior sale occurred, and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors. This “sales pairs” method makes the Case-Shiller index a more reliable indicator than median price indices (37-page methodology).

Home-Price Inflation. By measuring how many dollars it takes to buy the same house over time, the Case-Shiller index is a measure of home price inflation. So Miami, for example, had 327% home price inflation since 2000. To be included in the “Most Splendid Housing Bubbles,” metros had to have home price inflation of at least 180% since 2000. By comparison, the Consumer-Price Index (CPI), which tracks price changes of goods and services that are consumed by consumers, was 82% over the same period (my discussion: Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, November).

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Will The War On Coal Leave America In The Dark?

Energy News Beat

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said on Dec. 2 at the U.N. COP 28 global warming summit that the Biden administration “will be working to accelerate unabated coal phase-out across the world, building stronger economies and more resilient communities.”

President Joe Biden said recently of coal plants, “We’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America and having wind and solar power.”

To achieve its net-zero goals, the Biden administration has leveraged the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and its authority under the 1970 Clean Air Act to launch a fundamental restructuring of the U.S. electricity infrastructure.

In May, the EPA proposed new rules that set much stricter limits on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from coal and natural gas plants.

“EPA projects these proposals would cut 617 million metric tons of CO2 through 2042 along with tens of thousands of tons of … harmful air pollutants that are known to endanger public health,” the EPA stated.

Despite the unambiguous statements from the Biden administration that it’s ending coal production in the United States, supporters of the EPA’s new rules insist that coal plants will be able to comply and continue to operate.

Rep. Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.) said at a House Committee on Energy and Commerce hearing in June that the EPA’s new emission rules are “reasonable” and “a far cry from a government takeover of our power sector.”

This is ultimately a modest rule that builds upon the Inflation Reduction Act, which will further support cost-effective compliance with the proposed standards,” he said. “This proposal provides ample flexibility to entities [to comply].”

However, critics of the EPA’s new rules say limits are set so tight that coal plants will be forced to close.

“It’s death by a thousand paper cuts,” Michael Nasi, an environmental attorney who provided testimony at the congressional hearing, told The Epoch Times. “They’re putting out a slew of regs that are intended to basically eviscerate the remaining coal fleet.

A turbine from the Roth Rock wind farm spins over the ridge of Backbone Mountain behind the Mettiki Coal processing plant in Oakland, Md., on Aug. 23, 2022. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

This rule is not happening in isolation. We have three or four other major environmental rules that EPA is chasing.

They include the EPA’s ozone transport or “good neighbor” rule, a Mercury and Air Toxics Standards rule, Regional Haze programs, and others.

The net result is that many coal plants are simply surrendering and shutting down well before the end of their productive life. This includes the newer plants, which are among the cleanest-burning coal plants in the world.

“Everything that’s left in the U.S. fleet is not a bunch of dirty old coal plants; these are the plants that made the retrofits necessary to extend their lives,” Mr. Nasi said. “They are the newer plants, the ones that actually were so vital that more investment was made.”

A 2020 report by the U.S. Department of Energy states that “coal-fired electricity generation is cleaner than ever.”

The report cites research by the National Energy Technology Laboratory that shows “a new coal plant with pollution controls reduces nitrogen oxides by 83 percent, sulfur dioxide by 98 percent, and particulate matter by 99.8 percent compared to plants without controls.”

A man works in the control room of the East Kentucky Power Cooperative’s John Sherman Cooper power station near Somerset, Ky., on April 19, 2017. (Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images)

Mr. Nasi said that’s what makes the EPA’s added regulations “even more offensive.”

“These units all made investments on the assumption that the EPA would stay within the Clear Air Act and that once they made those changes, they would be deemed to be in compliance,” he said.

These coal plants acted in good faith … and now they’re being told that’s not good enough, and here’s some new regulations that you will not be able to comply with.

“What the EPA is doing is going well beyond the letter and intent of the law on several different pollutants, and carbon is, of course, the biggest of them all.”

Despite the coal industry’s progress in reducing pollution, the only solution that global warming activists appear willing to accept is the abolition of coal.

report by ODI, a proponent of wind and solar energy formerly known as the Overseas Development Institute, concedes that the thermal efficiency of burning coal to make electricity has increased to 50 percent from 30 percent, with the result being that 40 percent less CO2 is produced.

“This is impressive, but it’s not enough,” the ODI stated. “Even the most advanced coal plant produces around 30 times more CO2 than wind and hydro, 20 times more than solar and geothermal, and 50 percent more than natural gas.”

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, speaks at a roundtable discussion titled “Financing the New Climate Economy,” during which he described the urgent need for a “new financial landscape” for funding investments into the global energy transition at the United Nations COP 28 Climate Conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Dec. 4, 2023. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

‘Largely Uninvestable’

Global banks and asset managers have joined the fight against coal, working within the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) movement to cut off financing for the coal industry.

According to a report by InfluenceMap, a data analytics firm, more than 500 investment managers, with $1.4 trillion in assets under management, pledged to divest from coal, making coal plants “largely uninvestable.”

report in May by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis listed more than 200 international banks, insurance companies, export credit agencies, and development banks that are divesting from coal. The companies include global powerhouses such as AIG, Allianz, AXA, Bank of America, Barclays, BlackRock, Citibank, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and UBS.

Caught between the Biden administration and Wall Street, the U.S. coal industry is withering.

Nearly 13 gigawatts of coal generation capacity was shut down in 2022—double the amount of production that was shuttered in 2021, according to the American Public Power Association.

An additional 41 gigawatts of coal capacity is scheduled to be shut down by 2027.

Overall, 83 gigawatts of coal, gas, and nuclear power generation are scheduled to be shut down over the next decade as the United States embarks on what President Biden calls the “incredible transition” to wind and solar energy.

The United States currently has approximately 1.3 terawatts of electricity generation capacity in total.

Shutting Down Faster Than Replacing

Energy experts are sounding the alarm about the dangers of this transition, warning that the U.S. electric grid is becoming increasingly unstable as a result.

The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC), an organization charged with monitoring the reliability of the U.S. grid, stated in its December report that there’s “clear evidence of growing resource adequacy concerns over the next 10 years,” because coal and gas plants are being eliminated faster than new capacity is being added.

The NERC’s risk assessment identifies a broad segment of the central United States, from Minnesota to Louisiana, as “high risk,” meaning that blackouts can occur under normal conditions.

All of the states to the west of this area, as well as all of the northeastern U.S. states, are identified as “elevated risk,” meaning that electricity shortages can occur during times of very high or low temperatures.

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Taliban’s Energy Project Threatens Pakistan’s Water Supply

Energy News Beat
The proposed dam on the Kunar River, a crucial water source for Pakistan, lacks a bilateral water-sharing agreement between the two nations.
Pakistani officials have expressed strong opposition to the project, considering it a hostile act with potential for escalating tensions and conflict.
Despite expert opinions suggesting a minimal impact on water flow to Pakistan, the project underscores the delicate balance of regional water resources and political relations.

Plans by the Afghan Taliban to build a hydroelectric dam on a major river in eastern Afghanistan has raised concerns in neighboring Pakistan.

A spokesman for the Taliban’s Water and Energy Ministry said on December 18 that the “survey and design of the project are complete.” Matiullah Abid told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi that construction of the dam on the Kunar River would begin when “funds are available.”

A Pakistani provincial minister said the unilateral decision by the Taliban to build the dam “will be considered a hostile act against Pakistan.”

Jan Achakzai, the provincial information minister in the southwestern province of Balochistan, warned of “severe consequences,” including “escalating tensions and potential conflict.”

The 480-kilometer-long Kunar River originates in the Hindu Kush mountains in northeastern Afghanistan and merges with the Kabul River before flowing downstream into Pakistan.

Why It’s Important: Afghanistan’s rivers are a significant source of fresh water for Pakistan. But the two neighbors have never signed a bilateral water-sharing agreement.

Disputes over Kabul’s plans to build dams on major rivers, which would reduce the flow of water to Pakistan, threaten to be a source of tension and conflict between the two countries.

The planned hydroelectric dam on the Kunar River is the latest ambitious infrastructure project undertaken by the cash-strapped Taliban government, which remains internationally unrecognized.

Experts said the extremist group lacks the expertise and finances to fund the project. “Constructing dams requires technical know-how, a robust supply chain, and a lot of money,” said Najib Aqa Fahim, an Afghan water-management expert.

Najibullah Sadid, another Afghan water expert, said the dam on the Kunar River is relatively small and will not threaten water flows to Pakistan.

“Pakistani officials are exaggerating the dam’s impact,” he told Radio Azadi. “It will be a small dam aimed at generating electricity, which will store little water.”

What’s Next: The Taliban’s hydropower plans could exacerbate tensions between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan.

The longtime allies have fallen out over the Afghan extremist group’s alleged sheltering of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant group, which has waged a yearslong insurgency against Islamabad.

Pakistan has been accused of using pressure tactics to force the Taliban to sever ties with the TTP, including by expelling hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees from Pakistan, shutting key border crossings, and blocking Afghan transit goods in recent months.

What To Keep An Eye On

It has been one year since the Taliban banned women from attending all public and private universities in Afghanistan, in a move that attracted widespread condemnation.

Afghan women, speaking to Radio Azadi, described the toll of the ban. “When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl,” said Spozhmai, who was a medical student in Kabul.

Saira, a medical student in the western city of Herat, said she cannot bear seeing her male classmates graduate, while she was largely confined to staying at home.

 

Why It’s Important: Despite growing international pressure, the Taliban appears unlikely to reverse its severe restrictions on female education.

The extremist group has also banned girls above the sixth grade from attending school.

Without lifting the restrictions, the Taliban is unlikely to gain international recognition or legitimacy among Afghans.

By RFE/RL

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Net zero will hamper West and boost China, warns CEBR

Energy News Beat

Net zero will impose significant costs on the rich world over the next two decades, speeding up the economic power shift away from advanced economies.

Rapidly growing Asian countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam will continue to grow their share of world GDP to 2050, as ageing populations and rising debt in western economies drag on their growth, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

It warned that US debt was becoming “unsustainable” as President Biden spends huge sums on net zero policies under his $500bn Inflation Reduction Act.

Douglas McWilliams, deputy chairman of the CEBR, said: “There is a cost in green investment. And there is the cost of having to restrain various things that otherwise would happen naturally in the economy.”

He also warned that there was unlikely to be a green jobs boom in Britain.

“As you transition, there will be new jobs created. The problem for the UK is a lot of these new jobs are likely to be in places like China that dominate the market for electric vehicles.

“Other than Australia, we have the lowest proportion of our GDP coming from manufacturing and the idea that from such a small base, you will suddenly make the UK into a manufacturing powerhouse I think is pretty unlikely.”

However, the consultancy warned that China’s demographic decline and the scars of its zero-tolerance Covid policy mean the Asian powerhouse may never overtake the US as the world’s largest economy on a sustainable basis. India is expected to become the world’s largest economy by 2080.

The CEBR also predicted that the UK economy will be a fifth larger than France by 2038 in cash terms as the Gallic nation faces ongoing difficulties implementing pension reforms.

However, Nina Skero, chief executive of the CEBR, urged politicians to focus on policies that boost growth.

She said: “Given that we forecast growth will be close to zero in the near term, there needs to be more of a focus on what needs to change to get growth rates closer to those we see in the US.”

She added: “There needs to be a reassessment of the UK’s tax system, with a plan to lower corporation tax in the future that could boost growth. There’s also been a lot of talk but not a lot of action in the public sector to increase productivity, but so far nobody has been able to achieve anything tangible.”

The CEBR’s annual world economic league table highlights the seismic shifts facing the world over the next 15 years.

India is expected to overtake Japan and Germany to become the world’s third largest economy after pulling ahead of the UK last year to become the fifth largest.

Mr McWilliams said: “One of the driving factors behind the changing positions in the league table this year is likely to be the differential pace of implementing net zero policies. The EU is in the lead on this.

“By contrast Asian economies are likely to move less rapidly in the same direction, at a pace where the economic costs are smaller, and countries like India, Korea, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam and the Philippines are forecast to move sharply up the league table.”

Economists are increasingly warning about the costs of decarbonising the economy. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development recently warned that net zero will leave Britain’s economy £60bn smaller and cost the world as much as $3.6 trillion (£2.8 trillion).

The Paris-based organisation added that the cost of eliminating coal and cutting back sharply on oil and gas will take 0.2 percentage points off global GDP growth in the coming years.

The CEBR also predicted that China’s property crisis and slow recovery from Covid meant it would overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in 2037, not 2036 as predicted last year.

However, it said Beijing’s time at the top will be “unusually short” with an ageing population allowing the US to overtake it again in the 2050s.

The CEBR said: “Looking beyond our normal time horizon, as demographic pressures start to bear we see the US overtaking China again at some time in the 2050s and India becoming the world’s largest economy in the 2080s. This means that China’s period as the world’s largest economy is expected to be unusually short. This would also have implications for global geopolitics, with potentially three superpowers instead of the current two.”

Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, said: “Those who talk down the UK are wrong. We have grown faster than any other major European economy since 2010 and the CEBR forecast us to grow faster than France and Germany in the longer term.”

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France and Sweden plan nuclear cooperation

Energy News Beat

BRUSSELS — France and Sweden have signed a declaration of intent to develop long-term cooperation in the field of nuclear energy.

The declaration was signed in Brussels on Dec. 19 by Sweden’s Deputy Prime Minister and Energy & Industry Minister Ebba Busch and France’s Energy Minister Agnés Pannier-Runacher.

The declaration calls for the two countries, among other things, to exchange experiences regarding financing models for the expansion of new nuclear power and encourage increased cooperation between the Swedish and French nuclear power industries.

In addition, the countries will exchange technical experience in reactor maintenance, as well as lifetime and power upgrades of existing nuclear power reactors.

It says France and Sweden will “promote a regulatory, industrial and financial framework favorable to the realization of nuclear installation projects with a high level of safety and ensuring institutional support for nuclear energy in compliance with the principle of technological neutrality and with the objective of strengthening Europe’s sovereignty and energy security”.

In the field of the nuclear fuel cycle, the countries will seek to reinforce the security of supply of nuclear materials and fuels “by endeavoring to promote cooperation between their industries to diversify supply and reduce EU dependence on Russian nuclear materials and services”.

They will also aim to strengthen bilateral cooperation in the field of used fuel management, radioactive waste management and the associated logistics operations.

The countries noted the close relations that exist between their nuclear regulators, the French Nuclear Safety Authority and the Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety and the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority.

“Increased international cooperation on nuclear power is central to enabling a massive expansion of nuclear power in Sweden by 2045,” Busch said. “France, like Sweden, has great experience in the nuclear power field and I look forward to strengthening the Swedish-French cooperation.”

Last month, the Swedish government unveiled a road map, which envisages the construction of new nuclear generating capacity equivalent to at least two large-scale reactors by 2035, with up to ten new large-scale reactors coming online by 2045. — WNN

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ENB #167 Martin Schwartz, Vechicles for Change – Impacting lives for a positive change, and workforce training.

Energy News Beat

Marty Schwartz is the President at Vehicles for Change in Baltimore, and wow, what a conversation we had. I had an absolute blast learning about this marvelous non-profit helping people get back on their feet.

When we hit the bottom of the hole, it is not easy to dig yourself out. If you are just getting out of incarceration, you have to get a job, and how do you get to the job? If you have no money and no transportation, it is impossible to keep the requirements of your probation.

What about the single mom needing a job and no transportation? We cover what Marty has been working on with training and getting people a helping hand.

Thank you, Marty, for stopping by the podcast; I had an absolute blast!

If you can donate a car, please reach out to Marty’s LinkedIn HERE: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martin-schwartz-49b85218/

Or on the Vehicles for Change Website: https://www.vehiclesforchange.org/online-car-donation/

 

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

00:57 – Tell us about what vehicles for a change actually is.

04:17 – How did you come up with you starting this?

08:49 – How do we get you nationwide?

10:42 – What’s the right information about energy?

15:16 – How do you find the partners to help you with?

21:22 – Is there anything else they can do besides donate a card?

23:23 – Can they ship you a car and then take that shipping fee off their taxes?

26:08 – Outro

Stuart Turley [00:00:03] Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Energy News podcast. My name’s Stu Turley, president and CEO of the Sandstone Group. You know, energy poverty is a real thing. But not only that, we have to be able to get people out of poverty, period. And there are some programs around the United States as we talk about EVs, We talk about cars, internal combustion cars. We have a very special guest today. I have Martin Schwartz, and he is the president at Vehicles for Change. And I am very impressed with their not for profit. And we want to cover what they’re doing. Welcome, Martin, and thanks for stopping by the podcast.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:00:46] Absolutely. Happy to be here. Thank you for the invite.

 

Stuart Turley [00:00:49] I’ll tell you for a podcast, listeners, you’ve got a great picture for a backdrop and you got a guy working on that car. Tell us about what vehicles for a change actually is.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:01:02] Yeah, so Vehicles for Change. We launched this program back in 1999 and we really address yeah, in a couple of days we’ll be 25 years old now. So a very exciting year coming up.

 

Stuart Turley [00:01:15] Also for our podcast listeners for us, good looking guys on this podcast, we have the same hair line and we’re both peeling out glasses in order to look at this. So even though his company, his not for profit, is 25 years old, we’re not.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:01:32] You know, by a long shot.

 

Stuart Turley [00:01:35] So I didn’t mean to cut you. All right. So good.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:01:39] Yeah. So Vehicles for change really addresses two of the major issues that impact generational poverty, transportation and incarceration. So when we launched the program back in 99, our main focus was to address the transportation issue that families have in gaining a job, and that’s getting a car. And so we take donated cars and I’m like 99.9% of the organizations that take donated cars across the country. We actually the good cars, we actually repair. And then we work with organizations throughout Maryland and Northern Virginia that are domestic violence programs, job training programs, rehabilitation programs. And they identify for us the individual who needs a car to get out of poverty. And so we sell them a car. It’s not it’s a handout. Not a handout. They they pay $950 for their car, but we guarantee a loan for them. So they get a loan through a local bank. So they establish credit while they’re paying for their car and they get a six month, 6000 mile warranty with their car. So we make sure that the car stays on the road while they’re getting back on their feet. And they can bring their car back to any one of our four locations, get it repaired at our cost as long as they own the car.

 

Stuart Turley [00:03:00] Wow. How sweet is that? Because that is such a problem. I’ve had family members go. All of a sudden, they’re getting there. They’re on their feet again. And it was a problem getting the car right.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:03:13] And then the car breaks down and you’re making minimum wage. You’re trying to make ends meet.

 

Stuart Turley [00:03:19] And you’ve got childcare.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:03:20] In your car to.

 

Stuart Turley [00:03:21] Feed. You got it. You know, you got inflation. Right. I don’t want to use the word Biden nomics because it might, you know, get the show thrown off the air. But you know, if it applies. Right. Yeah.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:03:37] So then the other piece of our program is, is that in 2016, we launched what we call the full Circle Auto Repair and Training Center. So as we were developing our program, we thought, you know, why don’t we train individuals to be mechanics? We have this great facility. We could get the cars fixed at a less expensive cost because now we’re using them as training devices. So now we train individuals with multiple barriers to employment, most of whom are coming right out of incarceration to be auto mechanics.

 

Stuart Turley [00:04:07] Wow, how cool is this? This is really neat because the guy people need another break when they no matter how they are. How did you come up with you starting this? How did you get this rolling? Because this is a heavy lift. This is not something lightweight.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:04:29] Yeah. So I always tell people that I really didn’t have a choice. Somehow a power higher than myself decided this is what I was going to do. I was in athletics most of my life. I was a high school baseball and soccer coach. I coached college baseball. I was the associate athletic director for development at NBC in Maryland. I left there in 96, started my own company, which was an Internet related business, which in 1996 was a dumb idea because nobody knew what the heck the Internet was other than me. And I thought everybody should know what the Internet is. And that was an athletic related business. So in 98, I literally ran into this company called Precision Startup Pro. They were trying to figure out how to get cars in the hands of low income families. They wanted to build this nonprofit within their organization. And we had a conversation one day and they said, Why don’t you come do this? And I said, I’ve got nothing else to do right now, so let’s do it. And that’s how this whole thing got started. I mean, it was, you know, the car idea was not my idea. The way we developed it and all the pieces, the loan and the, the, the, the charging them for the car, providing them with the warranty, all of that was was what I developed for the organization. But the idea of, hey, let’s get these cars and get them to families was not my idea. The training program was my idea. And then most recently, we launched what we call VFX VR, where we’re now using virtual reality to train auto mechanics.

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:05] No way.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:06:07] Yes, it is. It is.

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:09] Incredibly cool. Okay. I am looking at your reach that you have done on this and I want to do the reach versus the need. The reach is you’ve done over 7500 cars on your Web site in as well, and then 25,000 people you’ve helped. And then you take a look at you need 81,000 homes with loan income in or in the area and a 135 33,000. Um, yeah, that’s that’s a lot of people. You can still help.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:06:45] Yeah, it’s the need transportation. When we started this program was the number one barrier to employment for families living in poverty. If you think about. That the way the US is set up and neighborhoods, right? We have these neighborhoods all over the country, whether you’re in a rural area, whether you’re in urban areas, it doesn’t make any difference. You think about people who live in poverty, they all live in the same neighborhoods, Right. And they’re locked in those neighborhoods and they’re locked in poverty by a lack of transportation. If you live in those impoverished neighborhoods, a lot of times there’s no public transportation coming to or from those neighborhoods, Right. So there’s no way that they’re getting the job. Their children are getting a job. Their children’s children aren’t getting employed because you can’t get there. So I always tell people I can go down to the most impoverished neighborhood in Baltimore City and I can give everybody a Ph.D. And guess what? None of them are going to work because they can’t get there. So the most valuable tool you can give to somebody living in poverty is a car. Before, before training, before education, before anything.

 

Stuart Turley [00:07:53] And then you tied the facilities and you encompass the entire circle on this project. So you have the training available. If that is down somebody’s road, you know, if it’s in their wheelhouse, You know, I missed my 43 willies, you know, because that was an old flathead that I actually knew how to work on. And, you know, it kind of tells you my age.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:08:24] Yeah, that technology has changed just a little bit.

 

Stuart Turley [00:08:26] Yeah. You know, the electric vehicles. Old Tesla has a recall on almost all of them. I’m wondering if we can’t get Elon on the phone and have him set up a whole branch for you to get people to donate. Wouldn’t that be fun?

 

Martin Schwartz [00:08:47] That would be amazing.

 

Stuart Turley [00:08:49] How do we get you nationwide? Is it just a money issue or is there a way to franchise out your your how do we how do we get more of these?

 

Martin Schwartz [00:09:00] It’s absolutely so our our goal actually, we’re focused on opening 20 new locations in the next five years now. So we are and and the virtual reality that we developed we are putting into prisons, high schools, you know, because there’s a big push right now in high schools to have more CTE programs.

 

Stuart Turley [00:09:20] How cool is that?

 

Martin Schwartz [00:09:22] Yeah. So think about if you wanted to put an automotive training program, a typical automotive training program in a high school, if first year cost alone is over a half a million dollars, and that’s if you have a building with a 20 foot ceiling. I can put a virtual reality training program in a high school for $30,000 and train 60 to 80 people a year. And they don’t need a teach. They don’t need an instructor. They don’t need equipment. They don’t need any cars. They don’t need oil. They don’t have gas smell. They don’t have any of those issues. And I can train people using virtually and I have employers, you know, saying that this is great training. So we’ve got it. You know, we’ve got to come in from a variety of dealerships and and, you know, garage owners that say, hey, this is great training and I’ll hire somebody that has this kind of training.

 

Stuart Turley [00:10:19] So the certification means something. Yes, it’s not. Here’s the there’s a couple of things going on. I’m sorry. I forget, you know, I’m just excited about this. And that is we’re working on getting our homeschooling for all of our podcasts and our energy because there’s so much different information out there. What’s the right information about energy? Is is it wind? Is it solar? Is it carbon? Is it this? And there’s just all kind we need to use all kinds of energy in order to get elevate out of energy poverty. Homeschooling and virtual training is even more critical now. And I’m sitting here thinking virtual and home training would be even more important if you can’t get to school somewhere or if you can, you can’t even get to a vocational school. It’s you’re still back at square one.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:11:18] That’s exactly right. That’s exactly right. And it’s difficult. I mean, you think about, you know, one of the things that we we see, particularly for individuals coming out of incarceration, right, is very often they have to go to parole and probation. Well, how are they going to get there? Right. I mean, that’s a challenge is how do I get approved probation and then part of your parole and probation a lot of times is you have to get a job. Well, how am I going to get a job if there’s no way to get there?

 

Stuart Turley [00:11:49] Wow. This is not. This is the worst part of a catch 22, isn’t it?

 

Martin Schwartz [00:11:54] It sure is. I mean, people don’t realize, you know, you and I, I’m talking for you, but I get up in the morning, I go out, I put the key in my car, I turn it and I drive to work. And when my kids were little and they had soccer practice or we’re in the area for lacrosse, there’s lacrosse practice. We do having to practice. So when you think about, you know, even if a single mom and a lot of the folks who get cars from us are single mothers. On average before they get their car. They’re taking the bus for 90 to 120 minutes a day to get back, to get to work and then get home. Right. That’s about the overall still the impact of that. Right. I’ve got to get my kids up number one at 4:00 in the morning so I can get them to daycare. Right. And I’m doing it on the bus. And then at night, I’ve got to take the bus all the way backward. So now I’ve got to pay extra because my kid can’t get out daycare until 630 because it took me an hour and a half to get there. And if the kids are in.

 

Stuart Turley [00:12:58] School.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:12:59] Now, we have kids at home from 3:00 in the afternoon until 7:00 at night when mom gets home. So now you hear all over the country right now, right. Of of these car thefts and carjackings and they’re being done by 12 and 13 and 14 year old kids. I’d like to know how many of those kids whose moms are trying to work, but they’re taking public transportation and they’re not getting home till 7:00 at night, so they have no idea where their kid is between them. They can’t afford to pay somebody to watch them because they’re making $15 an hour.

 

Stuart Turley [00:13:38] And it is not the time. When I grew up, mom would throw us out and we would be gone until the evening. And then parents back then would have to have that 10:00 warning. It’s 10:00. Do you know where your kids are in that kind of world anymore?

 

Martin Schwartz [00:13:56] It’s not. It’s not.

 

Stuart Turley [00:13:59] Now. I kind of enjoyed being out. I mean, we we were never home. I mean.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:14:06] I was always at the ball field one way or the other. And I mean, my parents knew where we were, but I was, you know, ten, 12, 14 blocks away from home at ball yard playing basketball or baseball or whatever season it was. And we were out not have.

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:20] Did not have cell phones. They couldn’t track you. I mean, it was and the worst part about it was I was such a klutz, Martin, that I would come home with broken arms and stitches, you know, So, you know, I felt sorry for my wife and my mom. And they’re they’re different so that she, you know, well, maybe they both can or controlling that will leave all that alone. Maybe will have they added or cut that.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:14:51] Out.

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:52] Or not. Yes. But anyway, so I tell you, this is exciting. And what are some of your you’ve got 20 that you want to do in the next five years. What are the your next steps to get that done? You’ve got to raise money. You’ve got to find the money. And I’m assuming that’s it or who. How do you find the partners to help you with? Because there is another way to do that.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:15:21] Yeah. So we have national partners on our board of directors. So the National Automobile Dealers Association is on our board. Napa Auto Parts is on our board. The American Corrections Association, the executive director of the American Corrections Association is on our board. So we have these national partners that we work with and that right now we’re working with some folks in Delaware. They’re looking at raising money. So they’re looking at raising the cost to fund the program. For the first two years. We’re working with some people in in Minnesota. We’re looking at putting some sort of a program so it doesn’t have to be a full fledged program. For instance, we’re working with some folks in Dallas to potentially put virtual reality in the prisons. So there is that that would be a Vehicles for Change program in the prisons. But it’s we don’t need to have staff. We all we have to do is get the virtual reality there. And then we would work with them, with our national partners as far as placement for individuals. So we also have other national partners that we work with, like precision to which we work with them to help them find technicians when we have training in their particular area. Napa Auto Parts has 18,000 auto care centers across the country. So for us, if we can get a virtual reality training program in an area and then we can work with that entity that’s running the training and help them with the placement. Because right now there’s more than 80,000 openings for auto technicians across this country and they pay really good money.

 

Stuart Turley [00:17:03] Oh, absolutely. There’s some people in this world you don’t want to hack off your plumber, your doctor and your auto mechanic, because if you that and you’re mean to any of those people, you’re just toast and you know, it. It just is amazing to me. This program is out there and I apologize. I never heard of you. And I just really appreciate, you know, how we got connected and everything else, because we’re going to have all of those sponsors in the show note and on your board members so that people can realize who’s taking care of you and your contact information as well. Thank you. Because this to me is an add on to getting people out of energy poverty. You got to get them to the job. You got to get them in to the low cost. I would love this. These were electric vehicles, but you and I were talking. You can’t get a charging station in the disproportionately impacted communities it in there.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:18:10] Now they’re not going to have a way to charge them. You know, they’re not going to be able to run an extension cord from their house out to a car. You know, if they’re in a high rise facility in the city, you know, that’s a challenge if they’re living in rural areas, you know, and then if you could get them a car, you start to pay 20 $500 to have a charging station put in your house. Right now, they’ve got to decide whether to put a charging station or whether they’re going to feed their kids, because 20 $500 is a pretty big nut.

 

Stuart Turley [00:18:40] Oh, absolutely. If there’s anybody listening to this podcast and you got an idea how to get an EV program in, I think that would be absolutely phenomenal. There may be places for the training because it’s kind of like a diesel mechanic, diesel mechanics. You know, I, I love diesel mechanics, so, you know, and my dad owned a truck stop. It was kind of like they were absolutely gold.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:19:11] Oh, yeah. And some of our guys have gone diesel and we have some diesel programs that we work with, diesel companies that do repairs and some of it they come in and hire our guys, you know, and they say, Well, we teach, will you train them in diesel? I said, Now what I’ll do is I’ll provide you with a great employee who’s a really good mechanic and great on how to handle how to do a diesel work. We have guys making 100, $125,000 a year, been out of prison. They were incarcerated for 20 years and four years later they’re making $125,000 a year as a diesel mechanic.

 

Stuart Turley [00:19:46] And they will always be in high demand. It’s not going to happen. Now, California or our beloved governor out in California has put a mandate out there to get rid of diesel trucks by, you know, I think 20, 20, 30 years on.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:20:03] And yeah, good luck.

 

Stuart Turley [00:20:04] Any good luck, dude? I don’t know I don’t get that. So these are mechanics are going to be around a while.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:20:10] Yeah they are. And you know, look, even with electric cars and such, people say, well, you know, but you still have brakes, you still have suspension, you still have, you know, all of those basic things that still need work. And so, you know, our guys are still going to be in high demand and there’s still there’s 300 million cars on the road and only 2% of them are electric right now. So. These guys are going to be in high demand for a long time. And we’re actually adding we’re going to be adding every repair to our virtual reality within the next probably 12 to 18 months.

 

Stuart Turley [00:20:47] You know what? I’m getting a little irritated, Martin. I keep coming up with these really, really cool ideas. And you’re already going, I got this, I got this, I got this. I’m over here going, Oh, I’m not that smart. I mean, you’ve already got a lot of this kook and how. Hey, man, I wake.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:21:04] Up at 2:00 in the morning and think of this.

 

Stuart Turley [00:21:06] Stuff. Oh, man, this is absolutely cool. So your website is Vehicles for Change dot org, and they just reach you there either on your LinkedIn or I’ll have that in the show notes. Is there anything else they can do besides donate a card? I’m assuming that’s a tax benefit.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:21:28] It is a tax benefit. If the card goes to a family, it’s actually you get to deduct the fair market value. So particularly for those families that are in the Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey area, if it’s a good car that we can we can put into the program, we do still selling a lot of cars to auction, 100% of that money that proceeds go back into supporting our program. So even if you’re in Minnesota and you have a car to donate, that money will go back to supporting the families that we serve or go back into our training program to train somebody coming out of prison. So, you know, they can do that. We also take cash donations. So if people feel so inclined to make a cash donation. You know, if you’re if you’re still concerned about the legitimacy of our program, CNN did a piece on us. You can still go in on YouTube and search CNN vehicles for change. And you can see our YouTube piece that CNN did about six months ago.

 

Stuart Turley [00:22:31] So fantastic.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:22:33] Yeah, we were very lucky this past year. We were on the Kelly Clarkson show. So Kelly Clarkson got us a little bit of national PR, which was kind of fun. So CNN and Automotive News, Voice of America Motor Week, we’ve gotten a tremendous amount of publicity in this last 12 months.

 

Stuart Turley [00:22:54] We’re in 150 countries. So I’m going to guess that somebody from Mozambique is not going to call you for a tax deduction.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:23:02] Yeah, probably not.

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:05] Hey, but I got an idea, though. I had one of my cars shipped from Alaska and it was only like $900. If you have a car and you’re in California and you want to get a tax break, because if you’re in California, you need a tax break. Or if you’re in New York, can they ship you a car and then take that shipping fee off their taxes? Is that is I don’t even begin to think of that. But it would make sense that you could.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:23:36] I’m not sure, but it certainly would make sense that they paid for that. What they could do is if they want their car shipped here and they want that as a deduction, they could they could donate the $900 and then we pay for the shipping and then they would certainly be able to take that.

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:57] Says the man that has been doing this for 25 years. Here’s another example. I’m over here thinking I’m pretty cool. You already got a solution for this man. Burn That is B, because I can see people wanting to donate their cars from all over the U.S..

 

Martin Schwartz [00:24:15] Yeah, Yeah. And if they want and shipping isn’t bad. I know that we’ve had cars shipped from as far away as Massachusetts for about $500. So I figure, you know, we can get them from, you know, out in in probably Alabama any any anywhere within an eight hour distance from Baltimore. Yeah. And then I think you’re right, you can ship a car from California for about 1100 dollars.

 

Stuart Turley [00:24:44] Well, if they’re going to go on a U-Haul coming this way, it’s about $17,000. If you’re a U-Haul going from your place to California, it’s probably three. Nobody’s going to California. And that was a joke for you. But anyway, well, thank you so much for stopping by the podcast. I really do. Outstanding. I hope I hear from you again, and if you ever have any updates, let us know and we will get the word out for you.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:25:18] Absolutely. And now, you know, we track where our donations come from. So if we start saying that, you know, donations are coming from all over the country and, you know, they say, we heard you on the podcast, we’ll certainly let you know if we get a couple of cars out of it.

 

Stuart Turley [00:25:32] Oh, that would be fabulous. And if I’m in your area, I’m going to come do a live podcast from your location because this is an important word to get out. So think would be great.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:25:42] You got an opening. Where are you still where are you located?

 

Stuart Turley [00:25:45] Well, I’ve got three places. I migrate between West Texas, Dallas and my place up in Bear country. And now my my lake house has got a overpopulation of bears in mind.

 

Martin Schwartz [00:25:59] Well, we’re we’re actually working on a program in Houston and in Dallas right now, so I might be out your way.

 

Stuart Turley [00:26:06] I hate dinner’s on me. I would love to see you. Thank you very much.

 

 

The post ENB #167 Martin Schwartz, Vechicles for Change – Impacting lives for a positive change, and workforce training. appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Biden’s migrant surge deepens America’s greenhouse gas problem

Energy News Beat

President Biden’s migrant surge is taking a toll on police, schools and a wide range of social services — and it turns out, it’s also contributing to global warming.

A Central or South American who immigrates to the U.S. could see their greenhouse gas emissions double or triple, just by becoming part of the U.S. economy. That not only raises the overall global carbon footprint, but also makes it tougher for the U.S. to achieve its own emissions reduction targets, experts said.

“It’s pretty simple,” said Michael McKenna, an energy policy expert who served as a senior legislative aide to President Trump. “When you get here, no matter what you’re doing, you’re using more electricity, you’re using more energy.”

The idea turns the usual conversation on its head.

Most people, when they talk about climate and migration, look at what are known as climate refugees — those who are pressured to leave their homes because rising temperatures and extreme weather events have flooded homes or upended the local economy.

But experts say the flow of people itself is a factor in total emissions and where they happen.

Take a Guatemalan, more than 700,000 of whom have been caught trying to reach the U.S. since the start of the Biden administration.

In Guatemala, the per capita annual footprint is slightly more than 1 ton of carbon dioxide emissions, according to the statisticians at Our World In Data. The average American accounts for nearly 15 tons.

It’s true that the Guatemalan is likely to be on the lower end of the economy — and therefore carbon emissions — in the U.S. But data from the International Energy Agency says even at those lower rungs of the economy, an American’s emissions can run to two or three tons a year.

“If all that matters is global emissions of carbon, then migration, given present realities, does tend to transfer people from the less-polluting part of the world to the more polluting part of the world, though developing countries are certainly catching up as everyone understandably wants to consume more fossil fuels,” said Steven A. Camarota, a researcher at the Center for Immigration Studies, who first explored the idea in a 2008 paper.

He said it’s also an issue for the U.S., which has set goals of reducing its emissions by 50% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels. That’s not a per-capita goal but rather a raw numerical goal, meaning that the more people here, the tougher it becomes to reach.

“How does one deal with those questions in the United States, by adding so many people, by making our population so much larger than it otherwise would be?” Mr. Camarota said.

His latest research shows the U.S. has netted 4.5 million new immigrants since Mr. Biden took office, pushing the nation’s foreign-born populace to 49.5 million. Immigrants now make up a record 15% of the U.S. population, topping the previous high of 1890.

More than half of those that have arrived under Mr. Biden came without legal permission.

The Washington Times reached out to several major climate change advocacy organizations for this story, but none replied.

Environmental groups have generally been shy about criticizing immigrants as sources of pollution, with some going so far as to say that even raising the question is “racist.”

“In fact, the vast majority of behavioral studies demonstrate that immigrants live more environmentally sustainable lifestyles than native-born Americans, so much so that immigrant density is associated with lower carbon emissions,” the liberal Center for American Progress said in a 2021 piece on the issue.

Douglas Morris, a professor at Lakehead University in Canada, found out firsthand when he wrote a paper in 2021 looking at immigration growth in the U.S. and Canada and its effects on emissions.

He said one of the referees who reviewed his paper before publication argued it should have been suppressed regardless of whether it was correct.

“The referee stated that publishing the paper would serve the interests of anti-immigrant groups,” Mr. Morris said. “So much for honest appraisal.”

Mr. Morris, in the study, calculated that if Canada nets 4 million new migrant arrivals this decade and the U.S. gets 10 million, it would mean between 700 million and 900 million tons of emissions over those 10 years. That’s a small part of the global total of 36 billion tons per year, but he said it does make the task for the two nations harder.

“Policies to meet CO2 emission targets must include the anticipated contribution associated with migrating humans,” Mr. Morris concluded.

But he said that also gets into big questions about fairness.

Poorer nations face the challenge of trying to raise their living standards without increasing emissions. And who can blame, he asked, individuals in those countries who seize an opportunity to move to a wealthier nation?

Mr. McKenna, who is also a columnist for The Washington Times, said the fundamental draw for immigrants is that they can live a more prosperous life here — and in the modern economy that means more energy use for them, and for the rest of the economy they are fueling with their productivity.

“The climate guys are swimming against it,” he said. “Almost every human on this planet is responsible for carbon emissions, and most people on this planet would like to be responsible for more. No matter where they are, people want more. The United States just happens to be better at providing more.”

“If you’re Greta [Thunberg], you cannot have a planet of 10 billion people who are all Americans,” he said. “If you were serious about all this stuff you would not let people have cars, or steaks, or cross the border, because people who cross the border want cars and steaks. And worse yet, they enable other people to get cars and steaks.”

Source: Washington Times

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