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France was the top destination for US liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in October as Europe continues to receive the majority of volumes produced at US liquefaction plants, according to the Department of Energy’s newest monthly report.

The DOE report shows that US terminals shipped 53.6 Bcf of LNG to France in October, 49.8 Bcf to Spain, 49.7 Bcf to the Netherlands, 28.8 Bcf to the United Kingdom, and 28.2 Bcf to South Korea.

These five countries took 54.7 percent of total US LNG exports in October.

Prior to this, the Netherlands was the top destination for US LNG supplies for five months in a row.

The Netherlands was the number one destination for US LNG supplies during January-October this year and the country is followed by France, the UK, Japan, Spain, South Korea, Germany, Italy, India, and China, the DOE data shows.

The US exported in total 384.4 Bcf of LNG in October to 28 countries, up by 24.1 percent compared to the same month last year and a rise of 10.9 percent from the prior month, the DOE report shows.

Europe received 259.7 Bcf, or 67.6 percent, of these volumes, Asia received 101.8 Bcf, or 26.5 percent, and Latin America/Caribbean received 22.9 Bcf, or 6 percent.

US terminals shipped 124 LNG cargoes in October.

Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant sent 39 cargoes and its Corpus Christi terminal shipped 19 cargoes, while the Freeport LNG terminal shipped 22 cargoes and Sempra’s Cameron LNG plant sent 21 shipments during October.

In addition, Venture Global’s Calcasieu plant sent 15 cargoes, Elba Island LNG sent 4 cargoes, and Cove Point LNG dispatched 4 shipments.

According to DOE’s report, the average price by export terminal reached 6.81/MMBtu in October and 7.36/MMBtu in the January-October period.

Moreover, the report said that in the period from February 2016 through October 2023, the US exported 5384 cargoes or 17,128 Bcf to 41 countries.

The DOE data shows that South Korea remains the top destination for US LNG with 561 cargoes, followed by Japan with 438 cargoes, France with 419 cargoes, the UK with 408 cargoes, and Spain with 412 cargoes.

Besides these five countries, the Netherlands, China, India, Turkey, and Brazil are in the top ten as well.

 

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People are becoming increasingly concerned about the mineral requirements for the energy transition and how these will be met.

In October, the International Energy Agency (“IEA”) published a report entitled Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions in which it sets out the grid-related challenges to the energy transition. It identifies regulatory reform, planning reform, increased grid investment and development of supply chains and workforce skills as the steps necessary to enable these challenges to be overcome.

“To achieve countries’ national energy and climate goals, the world’s electricity use needs to grow 20% faster in the next decade than it did in the previous one…Reaching national goals also means adding or refurbishing a total of over 80 million kilometres of grids by 2040, the equivalent of the entire existing global grid,”– IEA, Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transition

The main recommendations were as follows:

Regulatory reform: regulation needs to be reviewed and updated to both better use existing assets and the deployment of new infrastructure. Regulation needs to incentivise the investments necessary to keep pace with changes in electricity demand and supply. This requires addressing administrative barriers, rewarding high performance and reliability, and spurring innovation. Regulatory risk assessments also need to improve to enable accelerated buildout and efficient use of infrastructure.

Planning reform: grid planning processes need to be better aligned with wider long-term planning processes by governments. New grid infrastructure often takes between five and fifteen years to plan, permit and complete, compared with one to five years for new renewables projects and under two years for new EV charging infrastructure. Stakeholder and public engagement are key both to inform scenario development and to ensure public acceptance – the public needs understand the link between grids and a successful energy transition.

Increased grid investment: grid investment needs to almost double by 2030 to over US$ 600 billion per year after over a decade of stagnation: emerging and developing economies, excluding China, have seen a decline in grid investment in recent years, despite robust electricity demand growth, while advanced economies have seen steady growth in grid investment, but at too slow a pace.

Developing supply chains and workforce skills: the expansion of supply chains can be supported by creating firm and transparent project pipelines and standardising procurement and technical installations. There is also a significant need for skilled professionals across the entire supply chain, as well as at operators and regulatory institutions.

According to the IEA, the most important barriers to grid development differ by region. The financial health of utilities is a central challenge in some countries, including India, Indonesia and Korea, while access to finance and high cost of capital are key barriers in many emerging market and developing economies, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. For other jurisdictions, such as Europe, the United States, Chile and Japan, the strongest barriers relate to public acceptance of new projects and the need for regulatory reform. Here, policy makers can speed up progress on grids by enhancing planning, ensuring regulatory risk assessments allow for anticipatory investments and streamlining administrative processes.

Developed world power grids are aging at a time when expansion is necessary

Grid length has almost doubled over the past 30 years, growing at a rate of about 1 million km per year, primarily driven by expansion of distribution networks which account for about 93% of the total length. In 2021, there were almost 80 million km of overhead power lines and underground cables worldwide, which equates to about one hundred trips to the moon and back.

Some 15 million km of distribution lines have been constructed in the past decade, with emerging markets and developing nations accounting for almost 12.5 million km. India alone contributed more than 3.5 million km, while China added nearly 2.2 million km and Brazil added 1.7 million km. Advanced economies experienced a modest rise of around 9% over the past ten years. The US added around 925 000 km of new distribution lines, and EU countries added around 715 000 km. Japan’s grid only experienced a 3% increase, equivalent to fewer than 40 000 km.

In terms of transmission infrastructure, China accounts for over one-third of global expansion in the past decade, having constructed over half a million km of transmission lines. India and Brazil have also undertaken significant expansion – India has added nearly 180 000 km of transmission lines over the past decade, an increase of around 60%, while Brazil added over 92 000 km during the same period, growing by more than 50%. Advanced economies saw a more modest 9% transmission system growth.

Grids, particularly in the developed world, are aging, posing safety and reliability risks as well as a requirement for additional investment. Only around 23% of grid infrastructure in advanced economies is under 10 years old, and more than half is over 20 years old. Countries such as Japan, the US and those in Europe, have a high proportion of their grids dating back over 20 years.

Transformers, circuit breakers and other switchgear in substations typically have a design life of 30 to 40 years. Underground and subsea cables are generally designed for 40 years, although newer versions may be expected to last for 50 years, while overhead transmission lines can go for up to 60 years before requiring a major overhaul. However, expensive items such as transformers are often kept in use past their expected lifetime, due to their high cost of replacement.

The digital elements of power grids have a much shorter lifetime, but also have faster innovation cycles. Control and protection systems often have a design life of 15 to 20 years, which offers significant opportunities to introduce new functionality that increases the flexibility and reliability of grid operation, however, issues such as software life cycles and cybersecurity must also be taken into account with updated equipment.

Grid reliability varies widely by region. Issues of reliability are growing in importance with increased electrification. Reliability data are hard to come by, and few countries differentiate between interruptions originating from generators, from transmission or from distribution networks. In four countries that do provide this information – the US, Japan, Australia and Chile – over 90% of power supply interruptions originate in distribution grids. In the EU, although comprehensive data for individual outage events is not available, reliability indicators show that most outages originate in low-voltage grids.

The IEA estimates that grid-originated technical/equipment failures caused outages that amounted to a global economic loss of at least US$ 100 billion in 2021. Most direct economic losses from outages arise from lost productivity at businesses experiencing interruptions, supply chain interruptions and potential damage to equipment. More indirect economic losses, such as those from fuel consumption in back-up diesel generators, can also be significant – for example, in Nigeria 40% of electricity is produced from back-up generation.

Common sources of technical failure are power transformers, instrument transformers and cables. In regions subject to high levels of precipitation, storms, monsoons and tornadoes, weather events typically account for a higher share of the outages. Human-related factors such as accidental damage, faulty installations and vandalism remain significant in many regions, with a notable trend in some countries toward increasing theft, vandalism and cyber attacks on grids.

Power system interconnection is being used to strengthen grids to accelerate renewables integration

Until relatively recently, power systems generally operated independently, but with the increase in electricity demand, and the deployment of renewables, regional co-operation has grown, and with it, there has been growth in cross-border connectivity. This is generally seen as beneficial – countries with surplus electricity can support those with a deficit, however since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and water shortages last year in Norway, there has been an increase in energy nationalism in Europe that is likely to be indicative of sentiment more broadly in times of regional system stress.

For the most part, cross border flows work well, but have the potential to create problems in neighbouring grids. For example, Germany built a large amount of renewable generation in the north of the country but did not build the necessary transmission capacity to move that electricity to demand centres in the south, choosing instead to send this electricity south via the Polish and Czech grids. This caused problems with local overloading in those countries leading them to complain to Acer (the Agency for Co-operation of Energy Regulators in Europe) and install circuit-breakers on their borders. Germany and Austria were forced to split their single bidding zone as a result.

Electricity shortages last year in typically exporting countries (France and Norway), together with concerns over gas supplies due to the Ukraine war, prompted concerns over energy nationalism in Europe with some grid operators suggesting privately they would protect their domestic interests irrespective of market rules. Even without explicit energy nationalism, with many countries sharing both similar weather and a growing dependence on weather-based energy resources, interconnection could create risks in times of system stress since many countries could face shortages at the same time. A prolonged heatwave across much of Europe last year highlighted this risk as many countries experienced several weeks with low wind output.

It may be the case that in normal times, increased interconnection allows more efficient use of energy resources, but in times of system stress, countries display a reluctance to export unless their own market is adequately supplied, regardless of price signals.

Importance of digitisation currently focused on EV infrastructure and smart meters

The IEA asserts that digitisation is a major trend in modern power grids, but its data suggest that aside from the introduction of EV charging infrastructure and the deployment of smart meters, this trend is actually quite weak. While smart meters can provide grid operators with instantaneous information about demand, there is limited evidence that this is happening in practice, generally because the structures necessary to capture these information flows have yet to be developed.

There is a couple of challenges here. One is driven by ownership of the meter itself and the underlying customer relationships. In most countries, electricity meters are owned and operated by network operators, so they have direct access to the data, however in the UK, suppliers sit between the customer and network operator, meaning that data protection requirements must be met which may reduce the transparency with which data can be shared. Secondly, different markets have different settlement rules – in GB, many classes of consumers are still part of the old demand profiling system where demand profiles rather than actual consumption inform settlements at the supplier level and there is no half-hourly settlement for consumers who are billed on consumption during longer periods of time (weeks and months).

Increasing digitisation of both distribution and transmission networks can also be used to help network operators understand what is happening on their grids, and the health of equipment. Remote control of the grid minimises intervention times and the number of operations that need to be performed locally, making operation possible from a single control centre using dedicated supervisory control and data acquisition (“SCADA”). Advanced automation tools allow the grid to act autonomously, quickly identifying and isolating the faulty element. For example, self-healing automation of the medium- and low-voltage grid, already implemented in some countries, ensures automatic containment preventing cascading power outages. Machine learning is increasingly being used to process the growing amounts of grid data being collected, to predict demand patterns and potential grid issues.

In transmission grids, flexible alternating current transmission system components such as static VAR compensators (“SVCs”) or Static Synchronous Compensators (“STATCOMs”) enable real-time control of power flows, voltage levels and other stability characteristics. They could also modulate the generation of reactive power depending on need, further enhancing grid stability, however these devices are currently relatively rare, with higher deployment observed in Europe and Australia. The use of grid forming power electronics is expected to grow as the share of inverter based generation increases.

However, with increased digitisation comes a greater need for up-to-date cyber security measures as grids become more vulnerable to cyber attacks. Electricity transmission systems are considered to be critical national infrastructure, for example, the 2023 UK National Risk Register puts the likelihood of a cyber attack on critical infrastructure at between 5% and 25%, ranking as moderate, with a potential impact of hundreds of millions of pounds in losses.

In recent years, the number of cyber incidents has increased and there have been many cases in which cyber attacks on key infrastructure have caused major social disruption, such as the power outages that occurred in Ukraine in 2015 and 2016. The first outage in western Ukraine, including Kyiv, took up to six hours to restore and affected 225 000 people; in the second outage in Kyiv in December 2016, attackers disrupted power grid control equipment through unauthorised access, resulting in a 200 MW outage for about an hour. While the 2015 attack consisted of a multi-stage attack in which malware stole information and used it to remotely operate the control system, the 2016 attack is believed to have involved malware directly manipulating power grid equipment. This indicates a marked increase in the sophistication of attack methods even within a short period.

Another example is the military cyber attack on a satellite in February 2022, as a result of which around 5,800 wind turbines in Germany lost their internet connections, making remote monitoring and control difficult.

Congestion and connection queues holding back the energy transition

The dual trends of increased electrification and deployment of renewable generation, particularly in distribution grids, is increasing the demand on grid infrastructure leading to problems with congestion and difficulties in obtaining grid connections.

Grid congestion is a growing concern for both network operators and policy makers. Congestion arises when there is not enough network capacity to transmit all the available power from one point on the grid to another. This means that generation is not dispatched optimally as generation on one side of the constraint may need to be curtailed while potentially more expensive generation downstream of the constraint is used instead. This frequently occurs in GB where Scottish wind is curtailed in favour of gas generation in England due to a lack of north-south transmission capacity.

Congestion management data are not always reported, particularly in regions where the system operator owns and operates generators as well as the grid. In markets where system operators are required to report congestion costs, the indicators may also differ based on congestion management techniques. From those countries which do report such data, congestion costs are increasing. In Germany, congestion management costs reached more than €4 billion per year in 2022 while a recent study estimated that transmission grid congestion costs in the US more than tripled from over US$ 6 billion in 2019 to almost US$ 21 billion in 2022. In winter 2021/22 alone (November-March), Great Britain spent almost £1 billion due to balancing in response to transmission constraints.

“There is a direct link between renewable curtailment caused by grid congestion and (the lack of) progress on transmission and distribution capacity deployment. Even though some complementary solutions such as electricity storage via flexible EV charging can be beneficial, investing in grids will in many cases be essential to unlock the full potential of renewable resources,”– IEA

Issues with grid congestion also effect the ability of network operators to connect new assets or loads to the grid. The US, Spain, Brazil, Italy, Japan, the UK, Germany, Australia, Mexico, Chile, India and Colombia collectively have grid connection requests totalling almost 3,000 GW of solar PV, wind, hydropower and bioenergy capacity. According to the data presented (which conflict with the text due to what looks like a typo) of this, 500 GW relates to advanced projects with a grid connection, or one close to being agreed, 1,000 GW are projects that are currently under review, and the rest – about half of the total – are still in the early stages of the development process. A significant investment in grid infrastructure will be needed to accommodate many of these new projects.

The addition of both grid-scale transmission-connected renewable generation and distribution-connected renewables are giving rise to a requirement for more grid infrastructure. This is easier said than done – deploying additional network capacity is complex, involves multiple stakeholders and can take many years. Large transmission projects can take a decade or more to complete, often much longer than building the new wind and solar projects that connect to them.

Significantly shorter lead times for transmission lines are observed in China and India compared to advanced economies, largely as a result of more centralised decision-making. In more advanced economies there is a greater emphasis on public engagement and support – in the autumn budget, the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer announced utility bill discounts to people living close to new power lines in order to reduce the impact of public opposition to these projects.

Power grid project development typically goes through three phases: scoping, permitting and construction. Unlike local projects such as generation, power grid projects often involve multiple authorities and jurisdictions along the entire route, which all need to review and accept plans before granting approval. For example, the 340 km long Ultranet line in Germany requires around 13,500 permits. Significant delays can result from complex permitting procedures, flawed government agency review processes, subjective interpretation or insufficient review of regulations, complex land use change requirements, and estimation errors. In Europe, over a quarter of electricity projects of common interest are subject to delay, most frequently due to permitting. Similar problems are observed the US and Australia.

Lack of public support can also considerably increase lead times – according to ENTSO-E, the most discussed issues driving public opposition include the visual aspects, human and animal health, audible noise and biodiversity. As a result, it may become necessary to adjust the route, and consider burying some sections, essentially re-starting the entire design and planning process.

Tightness in supply chains holding back grid upgrades and expansion

Further delays in the delivery of new grid infrastructure relate to the availability of materials. Global supply chains of all kinds have faced bottlenecks in recent years, in part due to the effects of the covid pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prices for both energy and raw materials have soared and there have been shortages of certain critical minerals, semiconductors and other components. Grid technology supply chains were severely affected, for example 50 MVA power transformers had typical procurement times of 11 months before the pandemic, but are now over 18 months as manufacturers struggle to cope with labour and material shortages.

Building transmission lines is more complex than people think, requiring a number of different components and technologies – not just cables and lines, but transformers, substations and control systems, each requiring different materials and technologies. The material requirements depend on the voltage level – transmission capacity is the product of current and voltage: if the voltage is increased with the same current, transmission capacity increases.

Current determines the thickness of the conductor as well as its losses –  the higher the current, the greater the conductor’s thickness and the higher the losses. Voltage determines the amount of insulation needed – either air for an overhead line or insulating material such as cross-linked polyethylene, PVC, cross-linked ethylene-propylene polymer and silicone rubber in the case of cables. The higher the voltage, the higher the need for insulation. The amount of conductor material and electricity losses can be reduced by increasing transmission voltage.

Copper and aluminium are the principal raw materials for cables and lines. Historically, copper has been preferred due to its good electrical conductivity and malleability, however it is three times heavier and much more expensive than aluminium. Aluminium has approximately 60% of the conductivity of copper, so wires need to be much thicker for the same capacity, but as it has a better conductivity-to-weight ratio than copper, it is usually preferred for overhead power lines and is increasingly also used for underground and subsea transmission lines, although copper is still more commonly used for these applications. An overhead ac transmission line requires around 11 kg aluminium per MW and per km (kg/MW/km), compared with 65 kg/MW/km for an overhead distribution line operating at a much lower voltage.

Wood, steel and concrete are used for the pylons in the distribution grid, while steel is used for transmission towers. Underground cables require 101 kg/MW/km of copper for transmission and 438 kg/MW/km for distribution.

An HVDC line requires around 5 kg/MW/km of aluminium for an overhead HVDC line and 29 kg/MW/km of copper for an underground cable. Reactive power makes a big difference in the material needs of HVAC lines compared with HVDC lines of the same capacity, as a significant portion of the power capacity of an ac line is used by reactive power (MVAr). This is not the case for HVDC lines, which is entirely used for active power transmission (MW). HVDC systems usually operate at higher voltages, which further reduces the material needs relative to ac for the same transmission capacity.

In addition to access to raw materials, there are other sources of bottlenecks in the supply chain. For example, subsea cables require cable-laying vessels, of which there are only 45 in operation worldwide, which can lay a total of 4,200-7,000 km of cable per year (depending on the type of project).

Electricity grids also rely on transformers to allow electricity to move across different voltage levels. Almost half of the material (by weight) required for their manufacture is steel, of which more than 60% is grain-oriented electrical steel (“GOES”) with specific magnetic properties and high permeability, while the remainder is construction steel. GOES is almost 2.5 times more expensive than construction steel, and is also a key raw material for power generators and EV charging stations. High permeability GOES enables transformers to be smaller, have lower losses and require less oil for insulation.

The cost of GOES in the transformer core represents more than 20% of a transformer’s total cost. Other raw materials include copper, aluminium, transformer oil for insulation, insulation material, pressboard, paper, plastics, porcelain and rubber. Aluminium is mainly used in low-voltage distribution transformers, while mineral oil is used in all types of transformers to insulate and cool the transformer windings (copper coils) and core.

Transformer manufacturing varies according to the size of the transformer. The production of medium-voltage and distribution transformers (building of the core, production of the windings and the oil tank, assembly of the core and windings and final assembly of the transformer and testing) is not particularly technologically demanding, and there are many factories around the world making them. However, production of large transformers is concentrated in a few companies since special facilities are required (drying ovens for windings, high power testing laboratories, etc.). More than the 40% of the global market is accounted for by just ten companies.

The transformer industry has been facing shortages of GOES, which led to price increases of 70% in 2022 compared with 2020. Sanctions on material exports from Russia, which accounted for almost 10% of global GOES production capacity in 2020, is an important factor. In addition, demand for non-oriented electrical steel has led some steel producers to switch part of their production away from GOES, reducing capacity.

There are also challenges obtaining HVDC convertor stations. A two-year supply shortage in the semiconductors market is expected to last into next year, and many of the materials required for components such as insulated-gate bipolar transistors, capacitors, switches/breakers, resistors, inductors, power transformers, DC filters, control systems and measuring instruments all face shortages of silicon, steel, aluminium, copper, nickel, polymer and zinc. The expected increase in demand for HVDC equipment over the next ten years will put supply chains under additional pressure. This could be amplified by a lack of experienced personnel in manufacturing and areas such as engineering, construction and project management, as well as drives to improve the sustainability of power grid components with several jurisdictions considering banning the use of materials such as lead and SF6, which have few alternatives.

The next phase of the energy transition will involve massive capital expenditure and may be unaffordable

Often in industry gatherings I hear people articulate a desire to “adopt best practice”, by learning from the experiences of others doing the same thing. This sounds great in theory, but in practice risks embedding bad ideas, which are unsuitable as circumstances change. This is largely what has happened with grid management – many advanced economies have similar approaches to things like grid connection queue management, having shared best practice for a world characterised by small numbers of large generation projects connecting to transmission systems, with largely passive distribution networks. All are now scrambling to adapt to an increasingly de-centralised grid environment.

But the developed world now faces a major challenge to ensure the grid infrastructure necessary for the energy transition is in place, and the necessary expansion of power girds is coinciding with a need to upgrade and refresh existing infrastructure, presenting a major funding and resourcing challenge. There are definitely things that can be done to improve matters – managing grid queues better and streamlining permitting processes. But availability of raw materials is likely to be a serious barrier that defeats these improvements, as I will describe in a forthcoming post.

Policy-makers are proud of the de-carbonisation that has been achieved so far in electricity systems (although in some places such as Britain, this progress was largely due to a need to move from coal to gas as coal reserves declined and cheaper North Sea gas came onstream), but this has very much been the low-hanging fruit. There is complacency about the next steps with several countries adopting 2035 as a target for a net zero power grid. But this means that many countries will be chasing the same resources at the same time. The transition so far has been expensive due to the need to subsidise renewable generation and the backup power needed to manage intermittency – the next phase is likely to cost even more as the cost of grid expansion in an environment of material scarcity begins to bite.

The questions of how this will be paid for have so far been ignored. But consumers in many countries are already struggling with both energy bills and the wider cost of living, so it is far from clear that these massive investments will be affordable. Policy-makers may well find that the next phase of the transition is harder, more expensive and has less public support than what has gone before, and that risks de-railing the entire enterprise. It’s all very well to argue about phasing out fossil fuels, as at the recent COP gathering, but developing the necessary replacements will be easier said than done, and it’s far from clear that this will be achievable over the desired timeframes. The net zero train may be about to hit the buffers.

 

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China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports rose for the second month in a row in November, according to customs data.

Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that the country received about 6.80 million tonnes in November, a rise of 6.6 percent compared to the same month last year.

This is the highest monthly figure for Chinese LNG imports this year, the data shows.

LNG imports in November also rose compared to 5.17 million tonnes in October, which also marked a year-on-year rise. 

The country’s imports in September declined after rising for seven months in a row.

China imported 62.99 million tonnes of LNG during January-November, up by 10.9 percent compared to the same period last year, the data shows.

However, Chinese LNG imports fell last year due to due to very high spot LNG prices and Covid lockdowns, which affected economic activity.

LNG imports dropped compared to the January-November period in 2021 when China imported 71.36 million tonnes of LNG.

Including pipeline gas, China’s gas imports rose by 8.5 percent year-on-year to 107.39 million tonnes in January-November this year.

The country’s pipeline gas imports rose by 6.6 percent in November to 4.15 million tonnes, the data shows.

Japan was the world’s top liquefied natural gas importer in 2022, overtaking China, but both of the countries took fewer volumes when compared to the year before.

However, China has overtaken Japan this year.

During the January-October period, Japan imported some 54.3 million tonnes, down by about 1.9 million tonnes compared to China’s 56.2 million tonnes.

Japan has not yet released its official data for LNG imports in November.

 

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While in Russia, the top diplomat is expected to discuss improving connectivity to boost bilateral trade

 

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An anonymously funded group is spreading misinformation about a rural Ohio solar project, according to project backers and others who reviewed claims made at a recent event.

Knox Smart Development was incorporated last month by Jared Yost, a Mount Vernon resident and opponent of the planned 120 megawatt Frasier Solar project. Three weeks later, on Nov. 30, the group hosted a catered “town hall meeting” at a Mount Vernon theater that included speakers with ties to fossil fuel and climate denial groups.

A company official with the solar developer, Open Road Renewables, was denied entry to the event, which was attended by approximately 500 people and featured complimentary food and drinks following the program. 

It’s unclear who funded Knox Smart Development so it could pay for the event.

“There are people with concerns who are helping us, and they’ve all asked to remain anonymous,” Yost said when asked about its funding sources as people left the theater. “So we have local concerned citizens who are helping to fund this, including myself.”

A Dec. 7 filing advised developer Open Road Renewables and others that the Ohio Power Siting Board was ready to start review of the application for the Frasier Solar Project, which was filed in October. The project would be located in Clinton and Miller townships, both in Knox County. Yost and Knox Smart Development filed to participate in the case as parties on Dec. 8.

An early version of Knox Smart Development’s website included the text, “Our mission: Empowering America,” with a hyperlink to a page for an organization called The Empowerment Alliance. Research by the Energy and Policy Institute, an energy and utility watchdog group, has linked the Empowerment Alliance to the natural gas industry. 

Dave Anderson, the institute’s policy and communications director, found a National Review Ideas Summit program guide that characterized The Empowerment Alliance as a project of Karen Buchwald Wright and her husband, Tom Rastin. Wright is the board chair of Ariel Corporation, which makes compressors for the natural gas industry. Its headquarters is in Mount Vernon.

The Empowerment Alliance’s highest paid contractor for the past four years, according to Internal Revenue Service filings, has been a group called Majority Strategies. Its chief strategist, Tom Whatman, emceed the Nov. 30 event for Knox Smart Development.  Whatman is also the former executive director of the Ohio Republican Party.

Another speaker at the Nov. 30 event, Mitch Given, has appeared on behalf of The Empowerment Alliance to promote natural gas issues to county commissioners in Ashland, Madison and Logan counties. In Ashland County, Given said the alliance takes a hard line against renewables, and that Rastin, a director of Ariel Corporation, has been a major supporter.

Whatman introduced Given at the program as someone who has been traveling around the state talking to farmers and others “that don’t know where to turn to find their voice to help them organize and how to push back” against solar projects.

Steve Goreham, a featured policy expert on the website for the Heartland Institute, also spoke at the Nov. 30 event. Heartland is well known for its attacks on mainstream climate science, and Goreham has often argued against the scientific consensus that human-caused climate change is real and driven primarily by emissions from burning fossil fuels.

Separate from the meeting, various area residents received free copies of Goreham’s latest book, which claims there will be a coming renewable energy failure. 

“Given the significant misinformation surrounding solar and wind arrays, I bought you this book that really lays out the facts,” said an enclosed note signed by Wright as Ariel’s chair.

Goreham is an “old-school climate change denier,” said Deborah Kennard, a professor of environmental science and technology at Colorado Mesa University, who has heard him speak before. Stated premises may be factual. But the framing or omission of other facts can lead people to questionable conclusions.

During the Nov. 30 talk, for example, Goreham noted that California and Texas produce lots of renewable energy, yet their electricity prices have risen. In California, though, wildfire mitigation and electric grid upgrades have been big factors behind rate increases. And this summer’s heat wave drove high prices in Texas, where natural gas provides more than 40% of the electricity.

Goreham also cited Texas’s deadly power outages in February 2021 to support his view that renewables are unreliable. Although all types of power generation had problems due to a winter storm then, more than half of the state’s natural gas production was shut down at one point.

Another speaker featured via video recording at the Nov. 30 meeting, Brown County Soil and Water Conservation board member and beef farm operator Aubrey Bolender, raised concerns about taking farmland out of production and complained about topsoil being trucked away from a Brown County project — a claim the developer has said is not true. 

Craig Adair, vice president of development for Open Road Renewables, could have addressed the claim but was denied entry to the event despite registering and having a ticket. The company has released an explainer, which it says debunks the worst assertions made at the Knox Smart Development program.

“They cynically claimed the event was intended to educate the public about Frasier and utility-scale solar energy, when it fact it was merely a well-funded propaganda event during which political operatives took the stage to make false claims and spread misinformation about solar energy and my company,” Adair said.

Among other things, he said, topsoil will remain on site. The company takes flooding complaints seriously and has responded to concerns at the other project site, he added. Plans for the Frasier Solar project envision its permit would also require protection and maintenance of drainage tiles. 

“We want to be sure things are done right on the front end,” Adair said.

The project has supporters in Knox County, too.

Kathy Gamble is an area resident who started Knox County for Responsible Solar to support a neighbor and others who want to see solar projects in the area. The group is independent of Open Road Renewables, she said, adding that funding for signs and other expenses has come mainly from her and other residents.

“What I feel bad about is all the misinformation that’s put out there,” Gamble said. Among other things, she challenged fear-mongering about solar projects taking farmland out of use. “We’re not going to starve to death.” She worries about property rights as well.

Ashley Labaki, IBEW Local 1105’s business development liaison, thought it was a “laughable excuse” for speakers at the Nov. 30 program to downplay the project’s potential economic benefits by saying there would be few permanent jobs. 

“All construction jobs are temporary,” she said, noting her husband is a union member and has been working on a solar project near New Albany. “These are things that are currently paying my house payment, my water bill and things like that.”

Under Ohio law, solar projects must have at least 70% in-state workers to qualify for payments in lieu of taxes, compared to just 50% for other energy projects.

Disinformation has real victims, stressed Anderson. “Landowners and farmers who choose to lease out some land and host solar panels are being unfairly villainized and attacked, and will lose out on a new source of income they may be counting on,” he said.

The Ohio Power Siting Board could decide next year whether the Frasier Solar project gets built.

 

The post Anonymously funded group stokes local opposition to Ohio solar project appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy News Beat

Armando Cavanha is a global thought energy thought leader with years of experience with Big Oil and is now a professor with international reach. Please follow Armando on his LinkedIn here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cavanha/

Some of the unintended consequences of the weaponization of the U.S. Dollar are critically hindering the move to net zero and nullifying any effort from the Biden administration’s efforts to make a difference in Net Zero and their Climate Agenda. – Stu Turley

00:02 – How do sanctions destroy the environment – Transporting crude/refined products getting around sanctions
00:45 – The U.S. imposes economic sanctions – and weaponizes the dollar, causing its demise early.
01:42 – Russia is becoming the new growth center – Their Revenues, and their GDP is up 3.1%
05:16 – The Dark Fleet came around because the US weaponization of the US Dollar impacted Iran, Venezuela, and Russia.
10:46 – The United States and the EU are the primary ones
13:35 – The US imports 7 million barrels
16:29 – The US is getting better
21:00 – The Sherwood Forest was trying to tax everybody
22:16 – The poor folks in Pakistan need a stable grid
27:16 – The case of Nord Stream that was exploded
30:15 – The last three nuclear plants

Armando Cavanha [00:00:02] How do sanctions destroy the environment? It’s a pleasure having. Stuart Turley is the CEO and president of Sandstone Group and Energy Data and Finance Consultancy. Good afternoon, Stuart Turley.

Stuart Turley [00:00:18] Oh, hey, Good afternoon, Armando. How are you?

Armando Cavanha [00:00:23] Fantastic. We were waiting for our present. And sorry, because of the link. I forgot to send the link before.

Stuart Turley [00:00:31] I was pulling my hair out. So you know

Armando Cavanha [00:00:32] Oh my god, Stuart, please let me start with for me a very impressive point that, the U.S. has imposed economic sanctions on more than 20 countries since 1998 in more than a thousand cases of different types of sanctions promote democracy and war. This certainly has all types of consequences. What do you think about this?

Stuart Turley [00:01:08] I’ll tell you what. I have to give a shout-out to Irine Slav, whose quote, I’ve been using everywhere. Sanctions don’t work as intended. -Irina Slav

Today, Putin, I believe it was yesterday when he called the article, he just put out that Russia’s economy is I believe it’s up to 3.5. I’m running right now, Putin says, where are you? There it is. Russia is becoming the new growth center as the West rests on its laurels. It’s unbelievable. Russia has done extremely well, even with the weaponization of sanctions from the EU and the U.S. for them to be able to say. Moscow says their gross domestic product was set to grow at 3.5, rebounding from a 2.1. For somebody that’s at or in being sanctioned. Those are incredible numbers for GDP growth. Now, Ballpark, I have to fact check this. Energy export is about, I think, around the 35% of Russia’s GDP. We have to remember that Gazprom, the cost for Gazprom to get natural gas out is about $0.13. It’s not bad. So you can sit back and think how much profit is in their natural gas. So you can also look at how much profit is in their oil. They know how to deliver oil cheaper. So when we sit back and say, Do sanctions work? Armando The sanctions started with Iran. When I ran started getting their sanctions, they started figuring out ways around it. This goes in line with the Dark Fleet. When Trump was president, they were doing 400,000 barrels per day. Under the Biden administration with the sanctions that are on them, they’re now they’re going to be up I believe it’s 3.1. That’s 3.2 million barrels per day now. Sanctions don’t work.

Armando Cavanha [00:03:45] Work.

Stuart Turley [00:03:46] They have a.

Armando Cavanha [00:03:48] Technical problem. We have a little noise in the background.

Stuart Turley [00:03:54] In my comments.

Armando Cavanha [00:03:55] Yes, probably

Stuart Turley [00:03:58] In mind. Let’s take a look here.

Armando Cavanha [00:04:02] Oh, yeah. It’s better than. I’m not hearing you.

Stuart Turley [00:04:11] How about now? Can you hear me now?

Armando Cavanha [00:04:14] Yeah, but the noise is more substantial. It sometimes happened.

Stuart Turley [00:04:21] Okay, let me check my speakers. Audio. Okay. Is this any better?

Armando Cavanha [00:04:40] It is not yet all of the same.

Stuart Turley [00:04:44] Okay. Is this any better? Still the same?

Armando Cavanha [00:04:48] Still the same.

Stuart Turley [00:04:53] Okay. Is this any

Armando Cavanha [00:04:55] Yeah. Yeah. No, it’s perfect. Now it’s good. It’s good. But you’ll mention iron. That’s producing 3 million barrels a day. It’s impressive is a

Stuart Turley [00:05:05] In. And here’s where it gets into the goofy part between these two—Venezuela, as well as several others. The Dark Fleet came around because Iran was in Russia. We’re really starting to get into the sanctions. So there are 500 to 600 Dark Fleet ships out there, these dark fleets. I put out there the other day, there’s a line out of an old movie, Armando, that’s called, you know, I believe it’s up periscope in the red. The rust on this old submarine is so bad, that this guy walks up and goes, I’m going to need a tetanus shot just by looking at this rust bucket. Okay. That’s how bad these tankers are. They’re old tankers that need to be retired. They turn their transponders off. They meet either outside of Greece. There are another two or three places around the world. And they offshore ring out from a legitimate and they go from their tanker to a legitimate tanker from somewhere else, and they make the transfer. So then the transfer is also going into rubles, is now very well established. India is buying all the oil they can from Russia, in rubles. Now, here’s where it gets funny. So you have all the oil going down to India is just one of the spots. Then India is increasing their refining capacity by an estimated million barrels per day. For refining, the customer is going back to the EU. And so that estimate for the EU, China has just increased. There are another million barrels a day I’m not sure when that’s coming on. I’m trying to find out when that’s coming online. California has just shut down. Governor Newsom is canceling all of the oil and downstream refining capabilities in California. California has been talking to China to buy refined products from China to bring it over to the United States working on that story. So when you sit back and take a look, why did Governor Newsom clean up the city for President Z coming in last time? And so now you’re seeing this mix that Russia, Venezuela, anybody else that has been sanctioned is sending it to another tanker. That other tanker is then turning around and sending it over here, and then it’s being transported back. All of that CO2 is out. Let’s say there are 1800 tankers around the world, whatever the number is, a good 30% of the fleet is out,.

Armando Cavanha [00:08:47] Unnecessary,.

Stuart Turley [00:08:48] Unnecessary. And they’re older tankers that need to be shut down. Now, this is impacting the environment.

Armando Cavanha [00:08:58] Environment.

Stuart Turley [00:08:59] It is because LNG is so much less. Do you think a tanker that is not insured is going to use the better lower-sulfur diesel that they’re supposed to? I don’t think so.

Armando Cavanha [00:09:20] And sometimes dark fleets? No.

Stuart Turley [00:09:23] Yep. In oh eight 30% of the oil in this throws in another world. And I want to hear feedback from everybody. How do we price oil anymore when you have this much that’s now coming out?

Armando Cavanha [00:09:40] Sure.

Stuart Turley [00:09:41] You have China in Russia exchanging gold currency so they can sell more to each other. Oh, look at this map. Oh, Armando, you’re just one look at this.

Armando Cavanha [00:09:56] This is impressive how they exchange materials and products and everything around the world. Results sense. No sense.

Stuart Turley [00:10:05] No knows. And here’s what I was just off the phone. I am not kidding. Off the phone with some oil traders. They were looking for how to move things around, and they were wanting to, they wanted product, and they were telling me about how weird this whole thing is. So I’m I’m serious. It is an unbelievable mess that’s going on in that map is only a fraction.

Armando Cavanha [00:10:32] Yeah,.

Stuart Turley [00:10:33]: That map is cool.

Armando Cavanha [00:10:36] Yeah, but this chart of the other countries that you know, in the world that apply sanctions like the United States are all the United States are playing.

Stuart Turley [00:10:46] The United States in the EU are the primary ones. And in you know Putin sanctioned some people in our government, you know, who cares? But, you know, when you sit back and think. The sanctions our previous administration put in and the United States did good. The weaponization that this current administration has put on is damaging the entire fiscal ability of the United States to survive. What that means is that who’s going to buy the U.S. debt at $33 trillion right now? Soon to be 35 at $40 trillion seems to be the magic number I’m hearing out here that we will not be able to it will be the interest rate alone will be more than our Department of Defense. I’ve been interviewing several folks and I’ve got other pretty big interviews coming up. And George McMillan has been pointing this out about how all of the geopolitical stuff plays into energy. But it’s not only the geopolitical stuff, it’s the actual trading and physicality that is also a problem. We can take a look at the geopolitical, but we have to take a look at how OPEC’s in OPEC+ you worked at Petrobras before.

Armando Cavanha [00:12:29] Yeah.

Stuart Turley [00:12:33] Thank you very much. I mean, you know what’s going on out there. And and when you take a look at Petrobras, the new CEO is happy that Brazil joined BRICS plus that Armando, wasn’t it funny that he said, I don’t care what my quota is, I’m going to produce everything I can.

Armando Cavanha [00:12:53] But this is a very important point for us because, see, this map and this map was just two arrows. The black one’s see. See the rationale? It makes sense. The U.S. has a difficult relationship with Mexico. This is not sometimes good, sometimes not close. The Keystone XL project from Canada.

Stuart Turley [00:13:18] Yep.

Armando Cavanha [00:13:19] Imposed heavy sanctions to Venezuela, you know. No help was made. Blister for we are now in this situation. Do not consider Brazil as a partner. But sometimes I understand why Brazil is not simple. The US imports 7 million barrels per day with a 20 million consumption from a world of 100 million. So why not use the America All America Consortium for Oil Production and Consumption or not?

Stuart Turley [00:13:52] You’re asking a brilliant question, almighty, Armando. Here’s why. So when you sit back and take a look at this, if the United States, Canada, Mexico, and South America, especially Venezuela and Brazil, if we banded together, we would not need, OPEC the land, the brand. See, part of the problem is the blend. When you take a look at our refineries, they’re geared up. They’re not geared up for the heavy Russian oil, and they’re not geared up for straight. You have to blend them down into what the United States refineries are designed for. So we have to get our oil, even though we’re producing more oil now than, you know, we’re the largest oil producer in the world. But it’s the Permian sweet light that is the most. And our refineries are not geared for that. We have to blend it with other countries’ oil. Now, other countries can use our oil. And so it makes for a great trading partner in the sense that OPEC would quite honestly lose all credibility around the world if we. Hold up our big boy pants. In North in South America. And absolutely traded with each other for the betterment of humanity. Think about how many tankers you would not be traveling around.

Armando Cavanha [00:15:34] How much CO2 it can avoid emitting with this operation.

Stuart Turley [00:15:40] And, you know, Tammy loves Canada, and can I love Tammy? Such just a great, great person in Canada. If you had that pipeline, it was going to be at about 800,000 barrels per day on that 800,000 barrels per day as it was coming in. Think about how much in rail and diesel that would save on those rails. So you have again, right now that oil is coming down from oil sands. What people don’t realize is the Canadians have done a fabulous job with their regulatory issues in the sense that their reclamation projects for their oil are fantastic. The US is getting better. I have to say, though, that we’re cleaner than Saudi Arabia, Iran, and all these other places around the world. Now I have to applaud Saudi Aramco in in Saudi Arabia for taking care of Saudi first. They are taking and using all their oil and gas reserves in their make. They’re putting billions into hydrogen. They’re putting billions into renewable resources. And so they’re taking it. And guess what, Armando? They’re not printing money to go renewable. That’s part of the environmental statements that the U.S. is failing. The U.S. has reduced its carbon footprint by 22%. The EIA put out there that we did that by 22% by replacing coal plants with natural gas. They don’t want to admit that now is now politically bad for them to admit it. They said we’re better now. China, as you talked about with the Great and the Wonder, is David Blackmon. China is Korea is is got 400 more coal plants per minute. The U.S. can’t get any that we can’t even get our windmills applied, you know, permitted anymore. So, this paradigm shift is going negative against the environment because of the way green energy is trying to be shoved into the market. The environment, the wind, the solar would actually have a better chance of reducing their carbon footprint if they work with oil and gas companies like Saudi Arabia. And I think we saw that Armando in COP, we were talking about COP and how all the oil guys showed up.

Armando Cavanha [00:18:53] Yes, that’s right. That’s right. There is another point that piqued my attention is OPEC opec+, BRICS, BRICS. Plus, they have a strong position in opposition to the petrodollar. So,.

Stuart Turley [00:19:09] Oh Yes,.

Armando Cavanha [00:19:10] Long term can be complicated. No stuart.

Stuart Turley [00:19:14] Short term. I think the petrodollar was going to be challenged. I think the current administration killed the petrodollar. I think the petrodollar is going to have a demise within the next 2 to 3 years of a significant volume of people going away. I think the demise of the government is going to be it’s a fallacy to think that we can print money to go green. It’s a fallacy to think that people are going to buy the US debt. And this is all because of sanctions and the environment. We are not taking care of the environment. We’ve weaponized the dollar, and it’s backfiring on the renewable folks. And if people understand I’m a humanitarian, let’s give the lowest cost kilowatt per hour to everyone on the planet to elevate everyone out of poverty. Okay. The entire discussion is on the table.

Armando Cavanha [00:20:24] That’s right. That’s right. You mentioned 35 to $40 trillion in the U.S., but is it payable?

Stuart Turley [00:20:35] Oh, yes. There’s a significant chunk coming due next year. And so it’s going to get tough cash flow in the U.S. Why do you think they were trying to get 87,000 more IRS agents? It’s so that they could go like, do you remember Robin Hood in there trying to rob Rob.

Armando Cavanha [00:20:58] Rich?

Stuart Turley [00:20:59] Yeah. Sherwood Forest was trying to tax everybody. You know, the sheriff of Nottingham was going around taxing everybody. That’s what they’re trying to do. So you can only tax people so much before they quit work.

Armando Cavanha [00:21:16] We were talking about the CO2 and the environmental problems, but we, we have something very strange in to boost oil refining capacity.

Stuart Turley [00:21:30] Yeah, we just talked about that.

Armando Cavanha [00:21:32] Yes. 1 million barrels per day a year until 2008. So a few countries are investing in refineries. What’s the what’s the reason they are doing this?

Stuart Turley [00:21:45] Well, it’s because the EVs we are not going to go to EVs. And I like the concept of the electronic vehicle. I like the concept of wind. I like the concept of solar. But India has such a population that they need power. They need all forms of power.

Armando Cavanha [00:22:07] They need 1.5 billion people. Yeah.

Stuart Turley [00:22:10] They are. They are going to need Pakistan’s needs. Needs all of the power. The poor folks in Pakistan need a stable grid. And I guarantee you that when you sit back and look at China, India and any of those countries are doing the best they can to get the lowest kilowatt per hour to their people. Again, with coal. KING Coal is back and coal is not your friend for the environment. My the great in wonder is David Blackmon was on the podcast this morning. I believe he recorded a podcast with Hugo Kruger, his name out of South Africa. And South Africa has enough coal in order to supply the world with coal for 600 years. So coal is cheap. Mark McMillan, who is on my podcast, is discussing the geopolitical. If you can’t provide or protect low-cost energy, you’re that country is not going to be your ally. So what is the U.S. doing? They are ruining the lives of people around the world by sanctioning oil and increasing prices.

Armando Cavanha [00:23:39] But, Stuart, if India and China attack them, are investing in refining capacity, and the West is not doing the same. Very soon, they will be exporting diesel gasoline from them their countries to poorer countries. Is it true?

Stuart Turley [00:23:58] You are dead on? Right. Contracts are probably already being done. And I’m trying to get some more details on that now and a lot of that. But I can guarantee you California is already using set way. They are using 70% of the crude oil that is done in the rainforest. I believe you have heard of this thing in the rainforest. All of the Chinese drilling that is going on in the rainforest, whichever the environmentalist really would like to protect, the rainforest needs to be protected. So, let’s get the drilling out of the rainforest. But California is so hypocritical in its energy usage that they are destroying the rainforest. So there’s another piece of your puzzle on the hip hypocrisy that’s going on.

Armando Cavanha [00:25:02] What could be done to reduce CO2 in terms of logistics and crude crude movements?

Stuart Turley [00:25:09] Pipelines could eliminate heat. We wouldn’t have to worry about renewable energy. We could do more for the environment if we invested in pipelines. Trillions have been invested in renewable energy to the detriment of the environment. And if anybody, Armando, reaches out to you, my offer is I want them on my podcast. If you have any numbers, if you are a world leader, if you are a world, if you care about the environment, if you care about saving humanity, I want to talk to you. If you think that oil and gas is the only way to go, I want to talk to you. If you think that wind and solar are important, nuclear is important. But Armando, the number one way that we can help people is to quit printing money. Number two, get all the pipelines you can in as an example, in the United States, the pipelines. New York will not allow pipelines. They want to do carbon capture. They need 7000 miles of pipeline in order to do carbon capture for the requirements that the Biden administration released on their last 3:00 right before COP started. These are the dumbest regulatory requirements I have ever seen. I’m still going through them. They are. They are not going to allow them. And so what they’re going to do is make the coal electricity so expensive that the United States is going to have blackouts, rolling blackouts like Pakistan.

Armando Cavanha [00:27:13]: You mentioned pipelines. This is the case of Nord Stream, which exploded. And instead of that, we use 50 ship cargoes every week from the United States to Europe. Was that CO2 emissions something big? Huge.

Stuart Turley [00:27:32] Oh, it is. I was looking at that before the show. Let me see if I’ve got it right here. I’ve got it right here in. And millions of metric tons of oil tankers in 2020. Wow. 210 million metric tons in 2020. That’s the boarded tankers. Uh, the dirt fleet is out there. That is low by how much? I’m going to throw a rock at it and say it’s probably 25% low.

Armando Cavanha [00:28:16] Yeah.

Stuart Turley [00:28:18] Now, China just laid keel on a nuclear cargo ship. I applaud China for that. How cool is that? A cargo ship that’s nuclear, that’s about as carbon neutral as you get.

Armando Cavanha [00:28:38] And how about Nords Stream? So we should repair this pipeline to to pump from Russia.

Stuart Turley [00:28:45] If you’re an environmentalist. Yes.

Armando Cavanha [00:28:48] Oh, good, good, good. Good answer.

Stuart Turley [00:28:51] If you even. There’s even one still working. Still, there’s one. There were four nurseries, one at Nord Stream, two had four pipelines, and I went to Oklahoma State University, and so three of them were blown up. That leaves one that still could be used. That would be better than what they have now. Now. Germany has failed as a country, and their GDP is failing. They have been to for many, many years. They have killed their industrial complex, and it’s because of the loss of cheap Russian natural gas. So where the German economy goes in the EU, so goes the EU. My prediction is that we will see hard times next year in the EU to the point where there are going to be enough people who are not happy with the EU. Brexit may be the first. I believe that there will be more. And I think you’re tired of the EU.

Armando Cavanha [00:30:10] Yeah, and Germany closed the last three. The last three nuclear plants returned to coal, importing nuclear energy and electricity from France. Yes. Is these north-south decisions?

Stuart Turley [00:30:27] No. You remember the wind farm where Greta was being carried out in the photo shoot.

Armando Cavanha [00:30:38] Yeah,.

Stuart Turley [00:30:38] She was in Germany, and they were taking pictures of that because they were going to close. They wanted to close the coal mine that coal to to build the wind farm. That wind farm is being taken down so they can continue their open strip mine. Strip mining was about the worst thing you can do. I am. And coal is needed to elevate energy, just like Alex Epstein has always said. It’s about energy to reduce our people’s population. And when you sit back Chris Wright, the CEO of Liberty Frack, is also a gigantic champion of the humanitarian aspect of energy. And I mean it those two are have been the inspiration for me over the last several years is my passion for elevating humanity and being the best you can to the environment. Chris Wright stood up in front of the video on YouTube and he drank his fluid with his staff. You have, as a CEO, drinking your frack fluid and saying, I am not destroying the earth with my getting the oil out of the ground. I have all the respect in the world for that man.

Armando Cavanha [00:32:11] On Monday, next Monday, we have a new podcast with Stuart Turley, Tammy Nemeth, and David Blackmon and myself, and we are discussing the return of After SEAL COP28. But do you believe that COP 28 discussed the unnecessary logistics that are being used with so big CO2 emissions that they do not know about these issues?

Stuart Turley [00:32:38] The Kerrys of the world. The all of the climate. Fear-mongering people. Our part of the wealth transfer they’re trying to take from the rich and they’re trying to give to the rich. Know you’re trying to stab the consumers around the world in the back and they’re doing it in the name of climate change. If they were true humanitarians, they would be putting in water. We would be putting in clean water stations around the world. We would be putting pipelines so we wouldn’t have to ship these things in here. We would be helping Africa build nuclear plants. We would be training people on how to do these things. Grace Stanke, The Miss America ad of U.S.. I got to interview her while she was in Dubai. What a class act going around championing humanity through low-cost energy of nuclear. Well, we can save the world. We can get to net zero. We can do it. But it’s going to take two parties.

Armando Cavanha [00:34:06] Yes.

Stuart Turley [00:34:07] Their side doesn’t want to listen. They don’t want even to hear facts and they do not want to pay for it. They think that they have the right to demand payment.

Armando Cavanha [00:34:19] Yeah, that’s right.

Stuart Turley [00:34:20] You’re mad

Armando Cavanha [00:34:21] Stuart is going to the conclusions. Please give me many necessary logistics that could save CO2 emissions. How much is in terms of 100%. So, unnecessary logist that we could cut could be 20%, 30% or different.

Stuart Turley [00:34:43] I think if you and I were running the oil and we would be up there with the OpEx and everything else, I guarantee you we could cut 10%. The first year I’m going to throw a number out that I know that we could go to 20% or 30% total in two years if we had the authority to change things. I guarantee you. So not only could we get rid of 200 million metric tons, but we would also whittle that away and have more impact. You and I would have more impact on the world’s pollution than anyone else. I feel that strongly about it.

Armando Cavanha [00:35:28] Yeah, well,

Stuart Turley [00:35:29] I’m an ego into super maniac.

Armando Cavanha [00:35:31] Fantastic Fantastic, it was a great, great pleasure to to talk to you, Every thought saids always, always

Stuart Turley [00:35:40] Thank you Armando I do appreciate you.

Armando Cavanha [00:35:41] You are fantastic

Armando Cavanha [00:35:43] Yeah.

Stuart Turley [00:35:43] So thank you very much.

Armando Cavanha [00:35:45] Thank you. And the Monday, we will be again together to talk.

Stuart Turley [00:35:50] Absolutely.

Stuart Turley [00:35:51] We’ll see you then.

Armando Cavanha [00:35:52] Great big great weekend to.

 

The post How do sanctions negativily impact the enviornment? – A discussion with Armando Cavanha and Stu Turley appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy News Beat

For almost a decade, Tony Sanchez III was the epitome of a shale-boom CEO—furiously drilling oil wells, piling on debt and hunting quail and nilgai with fellow executives near his family’s ranch in South Texas.

Then tumbling oil prices and heavy debt helped send his company, Sanchez Energy, into bankruptcy in 2019.

The post A Shale Oil CEO’s Second Act: Going Green appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Energy News Beat

ENB Pub Note: David Blackmon’s articles on the Daily Caller, Forbes, and Substack are fantastic. We recommend subscribing to them all, and his Substack is HERE: https://blackmon.substack.com/. 

The IEA also just released their 2023 coal report which is a stark opposite of their predictions of “Peak Oil.”.  The full report on coal is available here: 

The International Energy Agency, led by climate alarm advocate Fatih Birol, apparently feels it is safe to start the process of revising its forecasts for oil consumption growth now that the COP28 conference has ended. Right on cue, the agency seen by many as allowing an ideological bias to influence its reports upped its forecast for 2024 demand growth by 130,000 barrels per day less than 24 hours after the final COP28 agreement was made public.

No one should blame Birol and his staff for wanting to get a head start on this year’s revisions. The agency has made a habit of systematically underestimating global crude demand over the past decade, missing the mark on the low side in 10 of the past 12 years. Once the initial lowball estimate is issued, the standard practice involves quietly issuing a series of revisions across the following months that enable Birol to retain a semblance of having been “accurate” by the latter months of each year.

After setting the energy media a-twitter with an extra-low estimate for 2024 along with a preposterous projection that the world would achieve “peak demand” for crude by 2030 in a report published in September, the agency apparently felt a need to get cranking on the revisions as quickly as possible. This initial revision raises IEA’s forecast for crude demand growth to 1.1 million barrels per day for 2024, a bar many still think is absurdly low.

The agency also raised its growth estimate for 2023 again, this time by 90,000 barrels per day to 2.3 million for the full year. For its own part, OPEC estimates demand for its commodity is likely to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day during 2024, little changed from the growth of 2.46 Mbod for 2023. It seems likely that IEA will find the need to raise its own projections repeatedly during 2024 to be able to reach its annual claim of accuracy.

Of course, that could all change on a dime, and efforts to project crude supply and demand are always fraught with peril. (RELATED: DAVID BLACKMON: Oil Producers Save UN Climate Confab From Al Gore And John Kerry’s Extreme Plan)

For the industry itself, all bets are now off on the direction of oil prices and the level of supply growth they might produce. This situation has become fairly critical in recent months as the OPEC+ cartel has seen its ability to heavily influence price levels fading.

Much of the cartel’s lowering influence has been due to decisions and investments made in the United States. The global market has seen substantial new supplies come online from both Iran and Venezuela thanks to the Biden administration’s decisions to ignore or revoke US sanctions, allowing more oil onto the market to help stop rising gasoline prices. Iranian oil production alone has risen by about 600,000 barrels per day during 2023.

In addition, US domestic oil production grew by 1.1 million barrels per day between December 2022 and September 2023, according to the US Energy Information Agency (EIA). That increase becomes even more impressive when one considers it happened during period in which the Enverus count of active drilling rigs fell by 22%. The industry’s ability to wring higher production from wells through advancing technology, improved drilling techniques, and more efficient processes continues to frustrate its skeptics and critics.

In its December oil market report, OPEC projects global crude supply to grow by 1.8 Mbod, with the US accounting for 70% of that expansion. This leaves little room for growth for Saudi Arabia and other key OPEC member nations, who have cut back substantially on their own national exports to maintain somewhat stable prices over the past several years. Saudi Arabia has borne the brunt of those export cuts, and is now producing several million barrels per day less than its full capacity.

It is important to note that US production, especially in the high-cost shale plays that have come to dominate domestic supply growth in recent years, is highly sensitive to shifting commodity prices. As the industry witnessed the hard way in 2014, a decision by the Saudis to end production restraint can quickly send prices crashing and throw the industry into yet another bust cycle.

Efforts to project where this risky business will go always has been and remains a fool’s game.

Source: DailyCaller – David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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Germany on Saturday effectively ended electric vehicle subsidies immediately. Tesla already is losing Model 3 subsidies in France and the U.S.

Electric vehicle subsidies are ending in Germany abruptly, the government announced Saturday, a blow for Tesla (TSLA), Volkswagen (VWAGY), BMW (BMWYY), Stellantis (STLA) and more.

German’s coalition government, facing a budget crisis, is ending the “environmental bonus” program as of Sunday, not Dec. 31 as planned. But a vehicle has to be registered before a buyer can take delivery, so the EV subsidy is effectively over.

Germany’s EV subsidy has been up to 4,500 euros ($4,909). Just a few days earlier, Berlin announced that the EV subsidy would not continue in 2024 at a reduced rate of 3,000 euros ($3,273).

As of Sept. 1, the EV subsidy expired for businesses and limited to private individuals. The business tax expiration spurred a big rush to buy EVs as well.

But with the subsidy program ending two weeks early, that cuts off a last-minute buying binge. Just on Dec. 12, Tesla offered German buyers 0.99% loans for those who ordered by Dec. 18 and took delivery by Dec. 31. Many of those ordering under that promotion won’t get the 4,500-euro subsidy now.

Tesla’s Berlina-area plant reportedly will shut production after Dec. 22 and not reopen until Jan. 2, 2024. The plant, like Tesla Shanghai, is running well below capacity.

Tesla Model 3 Subsidies Lost In France

Germany’s move comes amid tighter restrictions on EV subsidies in France.

As of Dec. 15, France effectively limited EV subsidies of up to 7,000 euros ($7,636) to electric cars made in Europe. Chinese-made vehicles, including the Tesla Model 3, are no longer eligible. The Model Y will still be eligible because Tesla makes the crossover at its Berlin-area plant.

French Model 3 sales surged in November, and presumably were strong in the first half of December, but should now fall off.

Germany and France are Tesla’s two largest markets within Europe.

IRA Credits Scaled Back

Meanwhile, the base Rear Wheel Drive and Long Range Model 3 variants, will lose $7,500 tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act as of Jan. 1 due to tougher restrictions on battery sourcing. Until a week ago, the expectation was that those Model 3 vehicles would lose half their credits.

The base RWD Model 3 uses LFP batteries from China’s CATL. The LR Model 3 uses traditional 2170 lithium-ion batteries from South Korea, but some materials and components hail from China.

Tesla presumably will try to source batteries to regain those credits, but there’s no quick fix. The Tesla-Panasonic plant outside Reno is production limited. Tesla’s 4680 battery cell production is ramping up from a low base.

The expiring or restricted EV subsidies and credits have acted as a pull-forward demand incentive for Tesla in these markets. Demand will likely weaken substantially next year in these countries barring significant further price cuts or discounts.

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock rose 4% to 253.50 last week in strong volume, clearing two early entries. TSLA has an official 278.98 buy point from a five-month double-bottom base.

Source: Investors.com

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