ENB #170 Irina Slav, – How can one brilliant woman make energy hypocriscy, historic geopolitical disasters and impending doom funny?

Energy News Beat

I am absolutely having a blast interviewing global energy, political, and thought leaders on my podcast. But one of my favorite friends and thought leaders is Irina Slav. Her Substack (https://irinaslav.substack.com/) is a mandatory subscription for any human person. And on her substack, she reads the article, and I can get my “Irina” fix for the day. Her humor is something that we need to make it through the horrific anti-human decisions being made by world leaders.

We will only elevate humanity from poverty through low-cost, abundant, sustainable energy. It seems that discussions from the “Greener” side do not want to happen, making open dialogue with facts, economics, and physics tough.

Please sit back and enjoy our conversation, and subscribe to her Substack. Thanks, Irina, for your time. – Stu

 

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

01:09 – Discuss COP 28 and express skepticism about its outcomes.

04:09 – Directed at the large number of attendees and the lavishness of the COPW28 event.

05:51 – Delves into climate policies, including the push for electric vehicles (EVs) and challenges faced by the automotive industry.

10:19 – The limited adoption of electric vehicles in Bulgaria, mentioning occasional sightings of Tesla’s, attributing the slow uptake to the country’s robust secondhand car market and expressing nostalgic sentiments about classic cars.

13:42 – Insights are shared on Bulgaria’s energy landscape, including the dominance of nuclear and coal, potential plans for a second nuclear power plant, and the presence of solar energy.

16:33 – The importance of self-sufficiency and potential backlash against carbon taxes.

17:40 – How’s the grid stability in Bulgaria?

19:01 – What’s coming around the corner for Bulgaria?

22:26 – Irina promotes her Substack, mentioning a special promotion for subscribers with a 20% discount until the end of January.

23:51 – Outro

Stuart Turley [00:00:03] Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Energy News Meat podcast. My name’s Stu Turley. There’s been a lot of rumblings going on around this week about COP 28 and now we are able to get rid of all the fossil fuels and have low cost renewable energy. I am so proud of everybody. I’ve got somebody that has a little inside baseball on energy. I’ve got Irina Slav from Bulgaria, stopping by the podcast this morning. Good morning, Irene. How are you?

 

Irina Slav [00:00:35] Good morning, Stu. I’m great, thank you.

 

Stuart Turley [00:00:38] Okay. It is 7 a.m. in Dallas here. What time is it? Bulgaria?

 

Irina Slav [00:00:44] It’s 3 p.m..

 

Stuart Turley [00:00:46] 3 p.m.. You know, that’s not as bad. I interviewed Grace Stanky. She was in Dubai last week, and it was midnight here in the U.S. and it was 9 a.m. in Dubai. So, you know. Yeah.

 

Irina Slav [00:01:06] It’s a that crazy.

 

Stuart Turley [00:01:09] It is. And you kind of lose sleep on that. But I saw everybody, the cop president and everything else. And this cop was just kind of funny because Saudi Aramco showed up the that it’s being held in Dubai, you know, in the UAE, in the UAE, oil, they’ve got nuclear. 22 countries signed on to a nuclear deal and saying, hey, we want to really increase nuclear energy. And then all of the climate folks were saying we still have to have a deal. And as of yesterday, there was still no deal. Now, I this morning I’m seeing that. Oh, there’s a deal. Yeah, I’m like, you got to be kidding me. What kind of deal can they make when ESG investing is failing? BlackRock has now said that. I’m kind of teeing this discussion. A Bill Gates came out and said that climate change is not an issue. It’s not going to kill us. I saw him interviewed at COP. Oh, climate change is really bad. I guess one of the climate folks shot him in the back room there and said, Now, you shouldn’t say that. And then Larry Fink said, now from BlackRock, it’s okay to invest in ESG funds in the oil and gas. So this whole paradigm of climate, bad oil, bad, renewables, good, my head’s exploding. I have no idea which way to go.

 

Irina Slav [00:02:48] I know exactly how you feel. Actually, the nuclear deal is probably the one good thing that came out of this cop. If, of course, the countries that signed up for it, you know, stayed true to their word. Right. Which you never know. But it’s good to see nuclear getting the acknowledgment that it deserves. I mean, the IEA has been saying that we will need nuclear during the transition, but it hasn’t been amplified too much.

 

Stuart Turley [00:03:21] The IEA. Oh, my gosh. You know, if you always heard that, that one thing that says it takes a village to raise a kid or something like that, I think it takes a village to raise an idiot and call it a a. It’s just absolutely unbelievable the hypocrisy that they do. And it seems like whoever’s paying the bill, that is what their report will show.

 

Irina Slav [00:03:55] Well, and it seems there’s only one pair of the bill these days and a collective pair of the bill. But. You said hypocrisy. The whole cop 28 is blatant hypocrisy. 70,000 people attended these meetings. Do 72,000 people flew from overseas.

 

Stuart Turley [00:04:24] Right?

 

Irina Slav [00:04:26] Nearly because I guess a few thousand came from neighboring countries.

 

Stuart Turley [00:04:33] Right.

 

Irina Slav [00:04:34] And then they complained about the lavishness of the whole thing. They complained about the size of the venue and the absence of corridors where deals could be made. I am not joking. I read this in Bloomberg the other day. Attendants are complaining that it’s too big. The place where they’re meeting is too big and they can go into a corner and clinch a deal. Which has been done at other meetings, but they ended with a final deal that does not include the words phase out of rules. But what what really impressed me was that essentially the agreement is to start phasing down demands for oil and gas.

 

Stuart Turley [00:05:27] Huh?

 

Irina Slav [00:05:29] Yeah. This got my attention. Well, good. So they’re not going to produce this because they couldn’t, you know. Right. They made the stand and they won. So they’re going after consumers. That’s not good news for any of us.

 

Stuart Turley [00:05:46] Wow. Now, is that is an example of that, the forcing of the auto manufacturers to go to EVs, even though the consumers don’t want them or can’t afford them. So if they forced the E. So what we’re hearing is that they’re probably going to knuckle down, double down and triple down on EVs.

 

Irina Slav [00:06:12] Yeah, but they can’t because GM and Ford are already revising their manufacturing plans for this for next year. They’re all they’re both cutting production. Did you hear the news about this? Tesla is recalling 2 million cars.

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:28] There really isn’t a link.

 

Irina Slav [00:06:30] There recalling 2 million cars because of the, you know, these investigations of accidents with Teslas where the drivers blame the autopilot. So they’re recalling these 2 million cars to fix. They’re also pilot feature so drivers can’t misuse it. I know how it sounds.

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:54] I know.

 

Irina Slav [00:06:56] But you know what?

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:58] I think there’s more to that story that we’re not being told, Irene. And I think the security issue is there. Remote control with remote control of those cars is possible. Remote driving of those cars is possible. And we saw that with.

 

Irina Slav [00:07:20] The bulb that they should have thought about that.

 

Stuart Turley [00:07:25] Well, if I want a remote control car, I just call my wife and ask her, What do you want me to do? And she tells me exactly where that car was supposed.

 

Irina Slav [00:07:33] To be as well as remotely.

 

Stuart Turley [00:07:34] And she could draw. You know, it’s like I absolutely. I just absolutely say, Honey, what do you want? Now, if the rest of the men in the world would understand what needs to happen, I see this. There was a video. Irina, did you see this? Where? I think it was somewhere in California. All of the auto delivery, robo cars. Somebody had all the ones in the city all converge on one address. They all woke up? Yes.

 

Irina Slav [00:08:09] All the what they have.

 

Stuart Turley [00:08:12] They they just all went to one place and caused a traffic jam. Somebody hacked in to the zero driver cars and they all went to one location. I kid you not. I’ve got the video. It is a hoot.

 

Irina Slav [00:08:29] For them to prove that they are hackable and successfully hackable. Well done. That hacker, too, you know, highlighting the problem.

 

Stuart Turley [00:08:38] You bet. How would you like to be going to a wedding and having a hacker take your car and drive it off on the side of the road where I don’t trust anybody is if you have a government that says no driving for you, they’re going to I’ll send you your car, wakes up in the morning and goes, I’m going to go check myself in at the Department of Motor Vehicles. And you no longer have a car. I could see that happening.

 

Irina Slav [00:09:07] It’s a bleak scenario. Hope it doesn’t materialize. I really do.

 

Stuart Turley [00:09:13] I don’t. And so when we sit back and we think, okay, yay, comp, yay, we have. So I think. Do you think the markets will win? I mean, because there’s a big awakening of everybody saying, hey, wait a minute. I got to eat, I got to have electricity. I got to have natural gas.

 

Irina Slav [00:09:36] Exactly. How can people always win one way or another? It’s only a question of how much pain people will have to endure before market. You know, market forces snap back into place after governments give up on trying to manipulate every single aspect of, in this case, the energy commodity markets and the car markets. You can’t force people to buy these.

 

Stuart Turley [00:10:06] It’s not happening in the U.S. now. I mean, there’s all the Eves highlighting. In the used car lot. So in Bulgaria. How many EVs are driving around?

 

Irina Slav [00:10:19] I actually saw a Tesla in our village. No way. Yes. And I saw it several times, including once when I was returning from town. And the car was, you know, ahead of me. So apparently its owner lives in the village. We’re such a rich village that we have Tesla owners in it. But yeah, there’s the occasional Tesla. There’s some of those ridiculous Volkswagens. The little ones, you know, they look like boxes on wheels. There’s quite a few of these, but they’re not they’re not massively popular yet, and they probably won’t be massively popular any time soon, given that we are the one of the biggest secondhand car markets in Europe because Western Europe. Sells its cars, they sell them to us, which is great. I like all the cars, you know, they write. I’ve said it before, they don’t have. So much electronics stuck in them. So to make us safer and more reliable.

 

Stuart Turley [00:11:32] Yeah, I miss my 1943 Willys. I had a 43 Willys. It’s a World War two Jeep and I made a mistake and sold it years ago. And it’s I mean, I should have kept it because there was it was the first year they ever made four wheel drive vehicles. It was just as tough as you can imagine. And it was a great, great vehicle. But it was what’s called a four cylinder flathead and it was just tough getting parts for it. So, yeah, I just I really I regret that.

 

Irina Slav [00:12:13] Yeah, that that’s it is a treasure.

 

Stuart Turley [00:12:17] Oh. Especially because it was so.

 

Irina Slav [00:12:19] Rich by selling it now.

 

Stuart Turley [00:12:21] Oh. Well, see, the reason I would want it is because if the sun flares ever happened and an MP would knock out the power grid, that thing would have survived and I.

 

Irina Slav [00:12:34] Would have a problem. Yeah. Yeah.

 

Stuart Turley [00:12:37] So I don’t think a Tesla is going to survive a sunburst.

 

Irina Slav [00:12:42] I don’t think so either. Bad student in any other, you know.

 

Stuart Turley [00:12:47] So with this cop, everybody’s coming back at a cop. I’m going to interview some more folks that were there. And it’s I really cannot imagine being around 70,000 of my closest friends. I don’t like people. I just. I just just don’t like people. So. Now, I heard great things about Dubai. They have their new power plant that’s out. It’s a nuclear power plant. 25% of the UAE is now got nuclear.

 

Irina Slav [00:13:21] Well done.

 

Stuart Turley [00:13:22] Yeah. Hey. And it was on time, on budget. And I couldn’t be more happy for them because that is actually way cool. Yeah. Are you seeing a resurgence in the Europe about nuclear? It seems like people are.

 

Irina Slav [00:13:42] Poking about it in Bulgaria. They’re talking about finishing the second nuclear power plant. But I’m not holding my breath because it’s very political, because it was Rosatom that started building it. But then an anti Russian government came in and ordered suspension of the works. We can’t have the Russians build our second nuclear power plant. Let’s get an American company. But I think the American company wanted too much money or couldn’t be bothered to build it. I don’t remember what happened. And now it’s it has started the construction and is being frozen, which is.

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:22] Where.

 

Irina Slav [00:14:24] We are planning, you know.

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:27] That’s sad.

 

Irina Slav [00:14:28] Yeah.

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:29] And, um, you know, I. I do allow that you laughed at my Putin imitation before, and I do a lousy Putin imitation. But if they we, the U.S. Senate or the U.S. House just passed a bill to block your Russian uranium.

 

Irina Slav [00:14:52] And you’re going to get your uranium from.

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:56] 20% of our uranium comes from Russia.

 

Irina Slav [00:15:00] Yeah, I heard about that. And process. I mean, you can get uranium from Canada, I think, but you have to process it.

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:09] Right.

 

Irina Slav [00:15:10] So you’re building a supply chain to.

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:13] And those are being held up by permits. And and then President Biden shut down the new uranium mine opportunity and and won’t allow us we have some of the biggest uranium deposits in the world and he won’t allow us to mine it.

 

Irina Slav [00:15:36] Yeah well that’s that makes perfect sense. It’s very rational and logical. Great, great.

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:46] I graduate from Oklahoma State University, and I think I’m smarter than those guys.

 

Irina Slav [00:15:53] Well, you.

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:53] Are. Yeah, that’s a stretch.

 

Irina Slav [00:15:55] Well, he smiles within them and she’s well.

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:59] But you sit back and kind of go, well there’s a bunch of farmers up there, and farmers are actually pretty smart. So, yes.

 

Irina Slav [00:16:08] They are going to have to do. Well, yeah, if you think about it, they have to be smart, so the family will make it.

 

Stuart Turley [00:16:16] No, you starve. But where do we see in World War Two? The victory gardens kept the US, You know, everybody eating our vic, our garden home gardens. A big thing in Bulgaria.

 

Irina Slav [00:16:33] Oh, yeah. In villages, everybody has a home garden. Oh, man. Produce quite, quite a little bit of, uh, you know, whatever. For example, our neighbors have an orchard in their in their gardens, and they sell the apples and pears on. That’s a market in town. But yeah, and we’re trying to build a garden for us here by using considerable amounts of fertilizers because our soil is, is not really good enough. But we have big plans. Yeah. You know, I’m a big fan of self-sufficiency to whatever extent it is possible without too much pain. So if we have land and we can plant things in it and eat them, of course I’m going to do this along with my flowers and. Right. You know, pretty things.

 

Stuart Turley [00:17:27] Right. That that. Yes, I think that the more sustainable everybody can be is family on their own. How’s the state? How’s the grid stability in Bulgaria right now? Is it pretty stable?

 

Irina Slav [00:17:45] Yeah, it’s stable because most of our energy comes from nuclear and coal. Well, there’s quite a lot of solar in my part of the country. In this part of the country in the south. And some of it is specially installed to to sell into the grid. But it’s still a minuscule amount of the total power generation. So that’s okay that people with the solar rooftop installations, we’re planning to put some panels on our roads because we have know great exposure to the south. And when I think I mentioned this last time, when whatever government happens to be in power decides to deregulate the household electricity market, electricity prices will go sky high. So for us, it’s a kind of hedge, you know, because at least during the summer, we’ll have. Energy we generate ourselves. Yeah.

 

Stuart Turley [00:18:49] And it makes sense. I like solar and wind for small personal use. It just seems like it doesn’t scale very well.

 

Irina Slav [00:18:58] No, it doesn’t.

 

Stuart Turley [00:18:59] No, no. So, okay, what’s coming around the corner for Bulgaria? In the EU.

 

Irina Slav [00:19:08] No idea about Bulgaria. I mean. They’re just borrowing more money. And I don’t like this. They have big transition plans because they listen to everything that Brussels says. The last thing I read about the European Union is that they’re really determined to, you know, to hit us with carbon taxes. And that might be the last stupid move. I think the opposing parties are coming into power. And and there are European Parliament elections next year.

 

Stuart Turley [00:19:50] Right.

 

Irina Slav [00:19:50] And things may change.

 

Stuart Turley [00:19:54] I’ll tell you, I think that you just hit a home run.

 

Irina Slav [00:19:58] A very good it is.

 

Stuart Turley [00:20:00] You know, on that may be their last stupidity action that they can do. I think people there is a great awakening happening, and I really think that, uh, Ursula is really crossing the line.

 

Irina Slav [00:20:18] Just all lines she could find, she and her friends and the only one. I’m not singling her out. I mean, she’s the face of it, but she’s not alone.

 

Stuart Turley [00:20:27] Oh, no. She’s being propped up by a bunch of folks. But here’s the thing. People are done. And I think that you’re going to see more Brexit, I think. I think so.

 

Irina Slav [00:20:45] I hope so.

 

Stuart Turley [00:20:47] I think it’s done. But that’s just me. During our podcast, listeners here heard it second and heard it here second.

 

Irina Slav [00:20:58] One thing is for sure that the European Union will fall and disintegrate because I set myself about this running joke in Bulgaria that whenever Bulgaria is on your side, you’re going to lose. You’re on the losing side of history of whatever battle you’re fighting. We were with the Germans in the First World War. We were with the Germans in the Second World War, and look how they ended.

 

Stuart Turley [00:21:22] Right. And Germany’s failing again because of their energy policies.

 

Irina Slav [00:21:29] Yeah.

 

Stuart Turley [00:21:30] And I visited with George Macmillan a few times and the U.S. has not done a lot of good things around the world.

 

Irina Slav [00:21:42] And it’s great to hear an American say this.

 

Stuart Turley [00:21:46] I love my country. I don’t love my leaders.

 

Irina Slav [00:21:50] Same here.

 

Stuart Turley [00:21:51] And there are a lot of great Americans. It’s just. The leaders of worlds don’t necessarily do what the people want.

 

Irina Slav [00:22:02] So that’s the problem in Europe as well. Right now, they’re doing what they want and they are actually saying as much that they do not care about the interests of their voters, that trying to mask it. You know, they’re trying to convince us that they’re doing it for our own good. Well, no, they’re not. Now, as we all know, it’s obvious.

 

Stuart Turley [00:22:26] Well, your Substack is Iryna Slav at Substack dot com. And I love your substack. And I’m going to encourage everybody to follow support and make sure that they get all of your opinions. Because, Irina, I truly love your sense of humor.

 

Irina Slav [00:22:49] I’m actually running right now. I’m running a promotional campaign, a special with 20% of paid subscriptions until the end of January. It’s the first time I’m doing this.

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:03] Well, good. We’ll see how many we can drum up for you. So everybody, the 20% off, That’s pretty cool.

 

Irina Slav [00:23:13] If you want more doom and gloom than you already have in your life, please.

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:18] Doom and gloom with humor. You could save a lot of people money by if they subscribed to you rather than get married.

 

Irina Slav [00:23:27] They could sit around and get therapy.

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:33] But, you know, I just have to walk down the hall and I can get all the doom and gloom I want. And then I.

 

Irina Slav [00:23:41] Know you have a great wife.

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:42] She is a she is a saint, but you know, she is. I wouldn’t want to put up with me. Well, thank you, Irene, for stopping by that. I guess I do appreciate you. And we will see you next month.

 

Irina Slav [00:23:58] Next year. And I have great holidays.

 

The post ENB #170 Irina Slav, – How can one brilliant woman make energy hypocriscy, historic geopolitical disasters and impending doom funny? appeared first on Energy News Beat.

 

Transparent Waters: Why a Russian LNG “Shadow Fleet” is Improbable

Energy News Beat

The recent Bloomberg documentary “The Shadow Fleet Fueling Russia’s War” shed light on the armada of aging tankers circumventing sanctions to keep Russian oil flowing. With Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 achieving its first dropon the 21st of December, a recurring question lately among some of my connections has been: could Russia replicate the strategy used for its oil exports with Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)? The recent success of this tactic for crude might paint a concerning picture, but the reality of LNG shipping presents several major obstacles that make a similar “dark fleet” for LNG highly improbable.

Limited Export/Import Points = Enhanced Scrutiny

Russia’s LNG exports are concentrated in just four facilities, with the two first located in regions with significantly less maritime traffic compared to major oil tanker routes: Yamal LNG and the Arctic LNG 2 project in Arctic waters, Sakhalin-2 in the Far East, and Portovaya LNG near the Russia-Finland border. This geographically constrained export landscape further strengthens the case against a “shadow fleet” for several reasons. With LNG shipments originating from a limited number of points, monitoring and tracking vessel movements becomes significantly easier. Dedicated satellite surveillance can readily identify any irregular activities or deviations from expected routes. The relatively low traffic in these regions makes any unauthorized or unexplained LNG movements stand out even more. This heightened scrutiny significantly increases the risk of exposure and potential consequences for any party involved in a “shadow fleet” operation. Even if rogue operators would manage to overcome the logistical and technical hurdles of a “shadow fleet,” they would face another formidable obstacle: a near-nonexistent market for sanctioned LNG.

Going Dark: Not an Option

The vast majority of LNG vessel owners and operators are well-established, reputable companies with substantial investments in their brand image and long-term industry relationships. Engaging in a “shadow fleet” operation for sanctioned Russian LNG would jeopardize these hard-earned assets, exposing them to severe financial penalties, reputational damage, and potential blacklisting from key markets. Switching off the Automatic Identification System (AIS) on an LNG vessel would be exceptionally risky and impractical. The risks far outweigh any potential short-term gains, making participation in such a scheme highly unlikely for these established players. Even if some fringe actors were tempted, the overall LNG ecosystem would heavily disincentivize any widespread adoption of such a strategy. In the case of Yamal LNG, transportation relies exclusively on specialized Arc7 icebreakers capable of traversing the harsh Arctic waters, leased from shipping majors like Seapeak, MOL, and Dynagas. Novatek’s inability to complete the procurement and domestic construction of the 2nd generation Arc7 fleet for its flagship ALNG2 project is another reminder of the heavy impact of the sanctions.

Credit: Novatek

Limited Fleet, Diminished Flexibility

The global LNG carrier fleet, numbering close to 700 vessels (IGU, 2023), pales in comparison to the 5,700+ oil tankers operating today. This scarcity hinders a “rogue fleet” by limiting suitable vessel availability even for the aging ones, reducing adaptability due to specialized infrastructure needs, and intensifying scrutiny due to fewer vessels operating. The combination of a limited fleet and stringent terminal monitoring effectively stifles any potential for large-scale “shadow fleet” operations involving Russian LNG. Unlike oil tankers that have greater flexibility in routes and destinations, LNG carriers have specific compatibility requirements for cargo handling at the receiving terminal. This lack of adaptability makes discreet operations or diversion to clandestine markets significantly more challenging. Beyond the inherent traceability of LNG cargoes sent to given import terminals, the process of transshipment adds another layer of complexity. Transshipment involves transferring LNG between carriers at sea, a delicate operation requiring close coordination and expertise. Coordinating multiple LNG carriers for already sanctioned transshipment hubsin remote regions complicates the process. Any attempt to obfuscate transshipment activities for Russian LNG would be even more challenging.

A Shrinking Pool of Buyers

Unlike readily bought oil, the LNG continues to operate largely on long-term contracts (70%) and established relationships. Finding alternative buyers for “off-the-books” Russian LNG would be extremely difficult, and this difficulty would only intensify. Recent events illustrate this stark reality: key foreign shareholders have recently suspended their participation in Arctic LNG 2 due to sanctions. Even Chinese partners like CNPC and CNOOC, traditionally less susceptible to Western pressure, have seemingly become wary of association with sanctioned projects. With these crucial partners stepping back, long-term contracts will be disrupted, and alternative buyers remain elusive. LNG terminals across the globe would become increasingly unwilling to handle sanctioned volumes, fearing legal repercussions and reputational damage. Finding reliable and willing buyers for sanction-tainted cargoes will be an uphill battle. While the share of spot LNG sourced from Russia might technically increase, the overall outlook for future Russian projects remains bleak. Limited buyer interest, lower prices, and amplified logistical hurdles combined with the shrinking market offer no viable or lucrative pathway for a sustained “dark fleet” operation.

Arctic LNG 2 Sanctions Ripple

While the immediate impact of current sanctions on Russian LNG rests primarily on Arctic LNG 2, the uncertainty toward the next wave of projects like Murmansk LNG and Ust-Luga LNG is increasing. Beyond funding those massive facilities and the technological hurdles of developing domestic alternatives, the long-term commercial viability of these future endeavors hangs in a precarious balance. The specialized nature of LNG shipping creates a formidable obstacle for a “shadow fleet” to emerge. The combination of limited availability, reduced adaptability, and amplified risk factors make such an undertaking impractical and perilous. The ‘shadow fleet’ narrative might be dispelled, but the specter of future sanctions casts an ominous shadow over Russia’s aspirations for LNG dominance.

I invite the LNG shipping experts in my network to further explore the specific challenges mentioned above and to provide insights into the complexities of LNG transportation and the unlikelihood of a “shadow fleet” solution for Russian LNG exports. There are also broader implications to these developments, with potential ripple effects on the global energy market and the ongoing geopolitical landscape.

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ENB #169 Anne Bradbury, CEO, American Exploration and Production Council stops by to cover COP28, LNG and even Bill Gates

Energy News Beat

Do you feel your energy bills are increasing, and no one cares? Well, Anne Bradbury, the CEO of the American Exploration and Production Council, stopped by, and we cover some of the most important energy topics in the US.

A little inside baseball: – Anne and I have over 99 connections on LinkedIn, and I have interviewed 26 of those joint connections. Quite a joint list of industry experts!!

Please reach out to Ann on her LinkedIn Here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anne-bradbury-015381147/

Thank you, Anne for stopping by, it was a blast – Stu

Anne served as Floor Director to two successive Speakers of the House of Representatives: House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH). In her capacity as Floor Director, Anne guided the House majority’s floor operations and advised the entire Republican leadership team on legislative strategy and policy development. Anne’s role as one of the Speaker’s most important advisers was expansive, from serving as the Speaker’s liaison to the House Rules Committee and Senate floor staff to advising the entire House Republican leadership team, House committees, its members and staff on the rules and procedures of the House of Representatives.

As one of the top legislative strategists and technicians in Congress, Anne was instrumental in the implementation and adoption of major rules packages and legislative initiatives ranging from reforms to national security and intelligence policy to health care, energy, transportation, trade, education, and energy policy initiatives introduced and passed by the House of Representatives.

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

01:16 – Talk about the North American Prospect Expo (NAPE) and upcoming events.

01:54 – The recent COP conference in Dubai

04:11 – Bill Gates’ changing statements on climate change and the carbon footprint of different energy sources.

06:48 – Discuss the significance of American LNG exports, especially to Europe, and its role in providing energy security.

09:13 – Are you seeing a lot more long-term contracts?

10:36 – Tell us what you do to try to help out our great American producers.

15:45 – Is there anything we can do for our great oil and gas producers in California?

17:19 – And who do you see is leading our country in energy for all type thing?

19:34 – How do you see yourself helping change the narrative or education?

23:30 – The great American American Export Europe Council, how can they help you?

25:05 – What are your thoughts for these upcoming ideas? Are anything your last words?

26:04 – Outro

 

 

Stuart Turley [00:00:03] Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Energy News Me podcast. My name’s Stu Turley. Have you ever wondered what’s going on in the oil and gas base in the United States? It’s kind of weird, but I’ll tell you what, one of the things that’s going on is talking to industry experts who actually understand what’s going on with what’s going on with the whole regulations through legislation, through regulations. I have the Anne Bradbury here. She’s the CEO at American Exploration and Production Council out of Washington, DC. Thank you so much for stopping by.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:00:43] Thanks do I’m super excited to be here. 

 

Stuart Turley [00:00:45] I’ll tell you what, I got to do a little inside baseball for our listeners. You and I have 99 connections on LinkedIn. You learn a lot of them. You’ve got a lot of good connections out there. A You’re a smart B, you’ve got a great organization out there fighting for the oil and gas industry. And I’ve interviewed 26 of our joint connections on LinkedIn. That’s bizarre. You must know.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:01:12] Bull. I talk to a lot of good people.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:01:16] Absolutely. So, hey, you and I are going to be at NAPE next year. This is really a cool thing. We’ve got four booth. How many names have you been through?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:01:27] Believe it or not, to do this is my first name.   

 

Stuart Turley [00:01:30] No way.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:01:32] Yeah, I know all about it. Exactly what it is. I’ve never been. I’m super pumped.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:01:36] Oh, well, I’ll tell you what. The podcast are way cool on the reach. And you just had David Blackmon, and you mentioned R.T. and a few others, and we kind of laughed, said this is going to the barge now set low for this podcast. But hey, tell us a little bit about what you thought about COP. There is some weird stuff coming out about co-op, right? Yeah.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:02:01] So common still. I think it goes till tomorrow technically. And right now the big news out of co-op is that there is a big push from some European countries and others to sign a joint statement saying that we are endeavoring to phase, quote unquote, phase out fossil fuels. And it seems like that they have now pushed back on that opaque is getting a lot of the credit for being the one to stop it. But I think, you know, from what I’m reading, it’s also some, you know, developing countries like African nations that are like, yes, slow down, like we need fossil fuels. And so the environmentalists and Al Gore are now saying, you know, throwing up their hands and saying, you know, this is this is the worst thing ever. But, you know, I think it’s actually a much better reflection on the reality of, you know, the state of our world today and the need for fossil fuels across the globe. And, you know, so so that’s that’s the big hullabaloo at NAPE excuse me at a at COP this week in Limits.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:03:20] And it’s pretty funny when you have it in Dubai. The UAE is kind of like oil. You have the Saudi Arabia shows up with Saudi Aramco. And you and I were chit chatting about this right before the show. Can you imagine their heads popping with all the green type folks? A pow, pow, pow, pow. It sounded like somebody doing it. What is it? The popcorn you squish. And everybody has the instinct to do that to bug your family. Oh, the popcorn. You know.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:03:53] It. It drives me nuts. But they get great joy out of it.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:03:57] So, yeah, I throw it down on the carpet and, you know, try this. Very satisfying. Oh, it is. You know, I feel good about myself. My wife is like you 12, so. Okay, so not only that, we have Bill Gates was there, and I keep telling people that the only time I met him, I drove him nuts. I mean, I have that effect on people. And, you know, I wish I drove him a little more nuts. Maybe he wouldn’t be the way he is now, but he said maybe. Did you see that interview where he said climate change is not going to kill us and it’s not a big deal? And then I saw him interviewed that cop and goes, Climate change is going to kill us.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:04:38] Yeah. Yeah.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:04:40] What’s up with that noise? And then, So you see all these knuckleheads, and it’s the elite. 1% are using more CO2 than the bottom 60%. They are 70,000 people.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:04:59] Yeah. 70,000 people. A cop, Probably a bunch who flew private jets to get there. And. And so, yeah, you know, it’s it’s, it’s interesting. And I and I think it gets back to where we started this discussion which is you’ve got to be realistic about global energy demand to ever have an honest conversation about climate because countries are not going to choose having lower emissions over the ability to provide affordable and reliable energy to a growing population, because energy is a hallmark of progress. And it’s we’re so lucky and Europe is so fortunate that we have this abundant, affordable, reliable sources of energy. But the vast majority of the world is not that fortunate. And so asking them to give that up in the name of climate change, it’s just not going to happen. Whether you think it should or shouldn’t, it is not going to happen. And I think the sooner folks can come to grips with that reality, the sooner we can have more realistic conversations.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:03] You know, when we sit back and kind of look at the great operators and you work with a lot of the big, big guys and what is it, 50% of our oil is produced by the private.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:06:17] Uh, so the stats I know is that over 80% of oil is produced by independence. Yep. And, and PC represents just over 50% of production.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:29] Oh, okay, great. Again, that’s. Oh, Ukrainian mass popping in my head there. But that’s a lot of oil.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:06:38] It’s a lot of oil. It’s like with a lot of it’s even more natural gas. Like it’s a lot.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:06:42] And we would be dead meat with that. Our great exporting of LNG facilities.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:06:48] That is 100% right. Even more so Europe would be dedicated to our incredible LNG exports. And you know what? I you know, I think the the story of American LNG saving Europe’s bacon over the last couple of years after the Russian invasion of of Ukraine, it’s an incredible story. It’s one we’re very proud of, couldn’t have been possible without the shale revolution. But I also want to point out that because of that, exports to Asia were the lowest that they had been in several years. So so some of that was just moving cargoes around, right, necessarily, like sort of adding to the aggregate amount of LNG in the in the world.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:07:31] And so let me ask this. Yeah, Russia was supplying a lot to Asia and then China was buying a lot of it and then reselling it. So Russia actually got around sanctions by selling it to China and then China was selling it back to the EU, talked about carbon emissions, having these things roll around the world, they’re not easily done.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:08:06] Right. Right. That’s that’s absolutely true. But it’s like the world needs more U.S. LNG, not just the ability to like move cargoes around. Right. Because, you know, Russian gas is clearly significantly dirtier and you want to sort of enable this Russian China partnership that’s emerging. And so, you know, super proud of the fact that we were able to provide so much U.S. LNG to Europe. But we need to be able to do that without moving cargoes away from other places in the world. Oh yeah, really important. And so we need more export capacity, we need more pipeline capacity for Pakistan.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:08:49] They had one of their LNG shipments stolen from somebody else. Our bid. Yeah. I was like, that’s not right.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:08:59] It’s not. And you know, it’s, you know, countries like that can’t afford to pay that premium when you know that those prices, by the way, to keep prices lower and more stable is to just put more energy in global marketplace.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:09:13] Are you seeing a lot more long term contracts? Boy, I am. I mean, it seems kind of weird that our long term contracts around the world, that’s cool. You see Cheniere and everybody else putting out long term contracts. And Sean Strawbridge just got his new company going.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:09:32] Oh, me?  

 

Stuart Turley [00:09:33] Okay, Yeah, he’s doing contracts around the world. So he’s. He’s gonna get.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:09:40] Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. For sure. Oh, that’s awesome. Yeah, that’s great. I mean, I think that’s a super important component of this business, and we need to continue to see more. And, you know, one of the things that I think would help is if DC policymakers stop talking about the fact we’re going to phase out fossil fuels. Right? Because I do think that that sort of counteracts this notion of, you know, can I make this a safe, long term 20 year investment, which, you know, I think we know it is.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:10:15] I don’t know how you do it.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:10:16] There’s this public there’s this other narrative out there that we’re you know, we’re.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:10:20] We’re.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:10:21] Going away, you know, within that time frame, which is, you know, just.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:10:24] For your organization, I feel I’d like to just say go ahead and put a memo out to your board and and give you a bigger raise for being in Washington, DC and then tell us what you do to try to help out our great American producers.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:10:41] Yeah. So still, you know, as you point out, like our main purpose, purpose of existence is to be an advocacy organization and to speak on behalf of the leading companies in Washington, to Congress, to regulators, to the White House, to educate on the importance of, you know, domestic production and to advocate on behalf of the industry. And, you know, it’s not always an easy job. But, you know, we think, you know, our mission starts with education and sort of making people understand what the impact of these policies will be. And and, you know, it goes all the way to advocacy. So we think about, you know, creative ways to to try to, you know, encourage people to really understand and put policies forward that support domestic production.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:11:33] So being a mom to your kids. Yeah. Or going to the Congress, which is you’re dealing with probably more adult behavior with your kids. Is that a fair statement?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:11:47] So I have two teenagers, you know, teenagers. So I actually think that’s still probably true. And they’ve they’ve been sort of indoctrinated for several years now in terms of, you know, just be asking talkative questions about, you know, when they come home and tell me what they learned at school that day. And so we can sort of turn that around and then they go back to to their classmates and start asking provocative questions as well, which is really fun. So so, yeah, I mean, I actually think it’s very similar. You know, it’s a lot of it’s a lot of really foundational education work on on basics.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:12:31] But, you know, and I get I’m sorry, I get excited and I think about 16 different questions for you there. But it’s about energy. It’s about elevating humanity out of poverty through low cost energy, natural gas, nuclear are critical. You can’t make a with all the teenagers and folks that are out there protesting oil and gas. Windmills don’t make.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:12:58] These right, right, right. What? RO Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And that’s really important to understand. And even, you know, issues around EV is right. I mean, you have to drive in TV for I think an average of 60,000 miles before it even breaks. Even when you look at the lifecycle analysis like a lot of miles and ad 20.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:13:21] I’ve got some numbers that are not adding up. So AD 20 you can you can say Stu Turley said oh thing no yeah just and so it’s up there because you have the resale you have insurance prices are going up and then you have the carbon footprint is getting worse because of supply chain. That number is not right. And it’s the same thing with wind farms. Wind farms are not sustainable from day one and then from day one, you know, without the tax subsidies. And then they are only sustainable with tax subsidies after up to eight years, after eight years, the maintenance is so bad that they’re all being walked away from. Why? Why, why are they not bidding on them anymore? Why now? Why did all these big boys lose all this money?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:14:19] Right. Right.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:21] How how expensive is your power in DC? Oh, I don’t.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:14:26] I don’t know. I should know that I know what my monthly bill is, but I don’t know what my. Okay, well, a unit power is still.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:14:33] The New York and California are two times as high as. Texas. In Texas, we have wind, solar, nuclear, coal. Well, that’s a natural gas. So let’s let’s have it all in Texas.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:14:48] And California has to import, I think, at least 30% of its power from other places because they’ve shut down production and generation within their state. Right. In the name of being green. So they’re just imported from other places.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:02] And you know what’s even worse? Buckle up, man. Are you ready for this?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:15:05] I’m ready.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:06] Okay. China has they’re putting in I believe it’s more than a million barrels capacity on their refined products. California has shut down their refined products and they’re arranging to import from China. Gasoline in. And they’re. And they think they can do that because they’re trying to get rid of gasoline and diesel.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:15:38] That does not shock me.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:41] The rule of law.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:15:44] Yeah. Yeah.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:15:45] Is there anything we can do for our great oil and gas producers in California? That seems to me to be a hopeless cause.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:15:54] You know, it’s interesting. You’re seeing some companies leave California because of the regulatory environment there. I mean, it’s it’s pretty brutal right now. And it’s, you know, I mean, you know, we have a ton of companies that operate in states with extremely high regulatory standards like New Mexico and Colorado.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:16:16] Right.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:16:16] At least in those states, it’s more of an effort to have very high standards without maybe driving industry out of the state right now. Intention is to drive companies out of the state.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:16:28] It seems like I’m okay with high standards because of the environment.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:16:32] Right. Right.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:16:34] And and our great ENP operators do a better job than anybody else on the planet.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:16:41] They do. And states are some of the best regulatory bodies, you know, in this country because, you know, they really they have the sort of institutional knowledge they’ve been the right for oil and gas for a long time. And they understand that, you know, what works in Pennsylvania might be different than what works in Texas, might be different than what works in North Dakota. Right. They’re very different operating regions. And so, you know, a one size fits all approach to a regulatory scheme doesn’t make sense.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:17:09] All right. Between us girls. Who’s your favorite either senator or Congress person to visit with about this? And who do you see is leading our country in a energy for all type thing? And I think I just threw on the spot.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:17:28] Yeah, it it’s hard to choose. I have. So there really are I mean Congress gets a bad.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:17:34] This is a really.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:17:38] Bad rap. That being said, there are a lot of great members of Congress and so a lot of good ones. So I’ll just off the top of my head, I’ll list a couple of my favorite ladies, Stephanie Bice from Oklahoma, Capito from West Virginia are really great energy leaders. So I’ll start there. But, you know, I think we’ve got a great like energy leadership sort of just, you know, really like if you go around, like a lot most of our producing states, you’ve got you’ve got really great, great leaders representing maybe not. Okay. There are some there are some exceptions to that, for sure. Okay.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:18:22] I answered that so greatly. I just interviewed Representative Congressman Zach, Man, he’s a who and I really, really enjoyed him. And then also Andy represented from Tennessee Bar, Andy Ogles.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:18:42] Oh, okay. Yeah.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:18:43] And he is a sharp cat. Yeah, I really enjoyed both of those. And we have about ten more lined up. Oh, good. So the Opry is in. If you are ever visiting with anybody, I would love to have a discussion with you and some of those other women, because I think that the battle is you guys need to tell us, how can we help get your story out?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:19:08] Yeah, that’s a great idea. That would be fun to do.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:19:11] And so that you don’t have to sit there and go, Hey, how do I get my story out? Hey, let’s leverage our our channels.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:19:18] Yeah. Yeah, absolutely.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:19:21] So what do you see? How do we get around? Not get around? Because I like the regulatory issues that are good. How do you see yourself in 2024? Because this is going to be a rough political year. How do you see yourself helping change the narrative or education? I don’t know how you do it again, I pull my hair out.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:19:44] Yeah, So this is a tough one. And I and I like how you framed the question because we try really hard at PC to be in favor of common sense regulations, right? So we’re not anti-regulation, right? We’re just pro common sense, effective, workable regulations. And that is a very difficult needle to thread for regulators. I will say, you know, we look at the most recent EPA regulation on methane that just came out, and you can see a lot of signs where the agency is trying to do the right thing. Directionally, I think there are some really good components of it, right? I think there are definitely some flaws in terms of workability, in terms of disincentivizing. Some of the technologies that our companies are really utilizing and employing, they’re going to be so critical. Enduring the sort of trajectory that we’re on in terms of continuing to drive down emissions. So it’s imperfect and we hope to continue to work with EPA to make it better or to reconsider some of those proposals. It does feel like some of the regulations kind of go downhill from there, right, That the you know, the methane tax we’re still waiting on. But that’s going to be, you know, a tough pill to swallow for a lot and something that will work we’re going to work really hard on because, you know, first of all, we think it’s pretty punitive against U.S. companies and, you know, should never have passed in the first place. On top of that, you layer the subpart W revisions, which is changing the underlying math, and it’s going to artificially inflate everyone’s reported emissions. And so this is that’s going to be a huge problem because it’s going to make it look like US production, you know, emit somewhere in the magnitude of like triple what it currently does. Not because we’re emitting more, but because they’re changing the underlying factors and inflating some and double counting. So. That to me is like sort of that sort of that the the regulatory issue that should be getting more attention than it is right now. So it’s only in the proposed rule phase. We haven’t seen a final rule yet, but that’s going to be a big area of focus for us. Well, next year.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:22:06] You know, getting hammered by the regulatory issues with scope on emissions. I can understand that. Scope two, Scope three with the one. Right. I mean.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:22:20] And it yeah, it’s the analogy I heard is it’s like punishing farmers because, you know, you know, there’s too much calories in this cookie year because people are eating like, you know, the king egg on the dessert menu. Right.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:22:38] I saw that same thing. And I it was a guy from the middle of he he was one of the oil leaders in the Middle East.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:22:45] He I remember where I saw it. But it.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:22:48] It’s a.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:22:48] Great analogy, right? Once we produce this product and it someone buys it and uses it for another purpose and then sold it down the road, we have no control over it, right?  

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:00] Oh, no.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:23:01] We don’t have the ability to control how the emissions are used. Where are they? So as long as there’s demand for our product, we’re going to keep making it. But to sort of punish us because then people are using it or to somehow use that to evaluate or score us is like, right. You know, it’s just kind of it’s just nonsensical.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:23:22] Oh, yeah. Like you have your work cut out for you. How can people help your council? You know, the great American American Export Europe Council, how can they help you? So you need help? I’m sorry, I do.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:23:41] We need all the help we can get. So if you go to our website, speak, dawg, there’s an area, there’s a link where you can sign up for our updates. And that provides information both on sort of updates out of Washington in terms of what’s happening here on the Hill, what’s happening and regulatory bodies to keep you updated, informed when it makes sense. It also says, you know write your congressmen on this issue. So we make it incredibly easy and then we send out is we’re getting in an election year. You know, we’ll also be sending out sort of don’t forget to register to vote and here’s how you can how you can vote, because just being engaged through this process is incredibly important. And individual voices, even though it might not seem impactful, collectively make a huge difference.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:24:29] And so this is this is a joke and don’t be offended. But is there any way you can start firing up a mail in ballot for anybody that likes energy? And maybe you and I can drive around and collect all those mail in ballots?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:24:43] I know it’s tempting. It’s tempting in.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:24:47] That for our podcast listeners, I think Paul in was blinded by my flesh colored bald head as the sun got in her eyes. And she actually thought that other joke was funny. So, you know, I’m sorry about that. And that again, Thank you. You got the last word coming around the corner. What are your thoughts for this upcoming ideas are anything your last words?  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:25:12] Last words? You know, I would just say if you are an energy worker, like be incredibly proud of what you do because it is incredibly important. And I, for one, am very grateful. My team is very grateful. So I think we start from a place of gratitude. And then number two is get involved. And again, you know, you can go to our website. It’s an easy way to get involved. People vote both in primaries and. Make your voice heard. Any way you can think to do so.  

 

Stuart Turley [00:25:41] I love that. Vote early, vote often. But then that one guy that did say that got thrown in jail or they tried to put him in jail. Vote early. Vote early or vote when, you know, my grandparents have voted like six or seven times in the last last elections and they’ve been dead for all these years. I am getting that is a joke. Everybody I know, I guess. Thank you so much and for stopping by the podcast. I appreciate.  

 

Anne Bradbury [00:26:07] You. Thanks to great to chat.  

 

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Elon Musk’s X loses court bid to block California content moderation law

Energy News Beat

Elon Musk’s X has lost a bid to block a California law that forces social media companies to publicly reveal how they carry out content moderation on their platforms.

X sued the state of California in September, arguing that the first-of-its-kind legislation violates the United States Constitution’s protections of freedom of speech.

Under the measures signed into law last year by California Governor Gavin Newsom, social media firms are required to submit twice-yearly reports on how they tackle hate speech, misinformation and other objectionable content.

US District Judge William Shubb on Thursday denied X’s motion to temporarily suspend the law, ruling that its disclosure obligations are “uncontroversial” and not “unjustified or unduly burdensome within the context of First Amendment law”.

X’s lawsuit had argued that the law “compels companies to engage in speech against their will”, “impermissibly interferes” with a firm’s editorial judgement and pressures companies to remove “constitutionally-protected speech”.

X, formerly Twitter, has seen an exodus of advertisers, including Apple, Disney, IBM and Lions Gate Entertainment, amid controversy over the levels of hate speech and misinformation on the platform and Musk’s own statements.

The social media platform is also under scrutiny by the European Union, which has opened a probe into the company over suspected breaches of the bloc’s Digital Services Act (DSA) related to content about Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel.

US District Judge William Shubb rules that legislation’s disclosure rules are not ‘unjustified or unduly burdensome’.

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EU states knowingly ‘de-industrializing’ – Gazprom

Energy News Beat

Manufacturing is doomed due to the first-ever artificial destruction of natural gas trade, CEO Aleksey Miller says

The EU is intentionally destroying demand for natural gas, Gazprom CEO Aleksey Miller stated at a company meeting to discuss the year’s preliminary results.

“We are well aware of the situation in Europe, where they have taken an unprecedented step,” the chief executive said. “There, for the first time in history demand for natural gas, a primary energy source, is being artificially destroyed.”

He insisted that the policy of eliminating one of the most environmentally friendly energy sources is forcing “some EU member states to de-industrialize.”

Global demand for gas, however, is expected to increase by 43% in the next 25 years, Miller noted, adding that the energy giant is ready, as it has been developing cooperation with nations that are interested in reliable energy supplies.

He pointed out that Gazprom has been working with Asia for a long time.

“The volume of gas supplies to China in 2023 will be over 22.5 billion cubic meters, exceeding the contractual obligations by 500 million cubic meters,” Miller stated, adding that Gazprom plans to deliver as much as 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas to East Asian nation.

Gazprom supplies natural gas under a long-term contract sealed with the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). The Power of Siberia pipeline is part of a $400 billion, 30-year agreement between Gazprom and the CNPC clinched in 2014. Russia’s gas exports to China are projected to reach 100 billion cubic meters annually, taking into account a transit pipeline through Mongolia.

Russian gas exports to the EU have dwindled due to Ukraine-related sanctions and the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines last year, previously Russia’s key gas route to the region. However, Gazprom has successfully redirected its energy trade towards Asia, with China emerging as its largest importer.

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Williams targets US LNG export market with $1.95 billion gas storage deal

Energy News Beat

US natural gas pipeline operator Williams is buying a portfolio of natural gas storage assets across Louisiana and Mississippi for $1.95 billion to serve growing demand driven by LNG exports and power generation.

Under the deal with a an affiliate of Hartree Partners, Williams will acquire six underground natural gas storage facilities with total capacity of 115 billion cubic feet (Bcf).

The deal also includes 230 miles of gas transmission pipeline and 30 pipeline interconnects to “attractive” markets, including LNG markets, and connections to Transco, the nation’s largest natural gas transmission pipeline, according to Williams.

The six natural gas storage facilities include four salt domes with combined capacity of 92 Bcf and two depleted reservoirs with combined capacity of 23 Bcf.

Moreover, fhe facilities have injection capacity of 5 Bcf/d and withdrawal capacity of 7.9 Bcf/d, among the highest of any natural gas storage platform in the US, Williams said.

Two of the facilities, Pine Prairie and Southern Pines, are directly connected with Transco and are “well positioned” for expansions.

Williams said the acquisition price “represents an approximate 10x estimated 2024 Ebitda multiple.”

The firm expects to close the transaction in January 2024, following satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

“This premier natural gas storage platform on the Gulf Coast fits squarely within our strategy to own and operate the best assets connected to the best markets to serve growing demand driven by LNG exports and power generation,” Williams president and CEO, Alan Armstrong, said.

He said these assets “better position Williams’ natural gas storage operations to serve Gulf Coast LNG demand and growing electrification loads from data centers along the Transco corridor.”

“Since 2010, US demand for natural gas has grown by 56 percent while gas storage capacity has only increased 12 percent,” Armstrong said, adding that the company expects the increasing demand for “high deliverability storage to drive significant earnings growth across these assets.”

Last year, US LNG firm Sempra Infrastructure, a unit of Sempra, entered into a heads of agreement with Williams for the offtake of LNG from two projects.

The deal contemplates negotiation and finalization of two 20-year long-term sale and purchase agreements for about three million tonnes per annum of LNG.

Sempra Infrastructure said the supplies would come from the Port Arthur LNG project in Jefferson County, Texas, and the Cameron LNG Phase 2 project under development in Hackberry, Louisiana.

The agreement also contemplates the negotiation of a separate natural gas sales agreement for about 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) to be delivered in the Gillis, Louisiana area, as feed gas supply for the LNG projects.

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India’s Petronet LNG moves forward with Gopalpur FSRU plans

Energy News Beat

India’s Petronet LNG is moving forward with its plans to install a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) in Gopalpur, Odisha.

The LNG importer said in a statement on Wednesday it has executed binding deals with Gopalpur Ports for its first LNG terminal on India’s east coast.

Petronet and Gopalpur Ports signed sub-concession agreement, sub-lease deed, and port service agreement for the first phase of the 4 mpta FSRU-based terminal, with provision for converting to a 5 mtpa land-based terminal at the port.

India’s largest LNG importer said the terminal would bring “augmentation in overall regasification capacity in the country thereby contributing towards gas-based economy.”

Petronet did not provide any additional information.

In November last year, the company approved the FSRU-based import facility and one month after that it signed a term sheet with Gopalpur Ports.

According to Petronet, the first phase of the project would cost about 23.06 billion rupees ($278 million).

Also, these costs include the construction of the jetty and the pipeline but not the FSRU charter.

The firm previously said that it expects to complete the Gopalpur project in three years.

Petronet is currently expanding its 17.5 mtpa Dahej LNG terminal with about 5 mtpa of new capacity and it expects to complete this expansion in 2025.

The terminal was operating at almost 100 percent capacity in October, according to Petronet.

The company also operates the 5 mtpa Kochi LNG terminal, but this facility currently operates at about 20 percent capacity due to lack of pipeline connection.

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Fifth of global oil trade used non-dollar currencies in 2023

Energy News Beat

Oil Price

A fifth of global oil trade this year was settled in currencies different from the U.S. dollar as countries such as Russia and China move away from the petrodollar.

This is according to JP Morgan’s head of global commodities strategy, Natasha Kaneva, who spoke to the Wall Street Journal and said sanctions have been a major motivator for Russia and Iran to start doing their oil business in non-dollar currencies.

“The U.S. dollar is getting some competition in commodities markets,” Kaneva said, just a day after news broke that Russia and Iran have agreed to completely stop using the U.S. dollar in bilateral trade.

Indeed, some analysts have argued that the barrage of sanctions that the U.S. leveled on Russia is causing other countries to consider ditching the dollar as a way of insulating themselves from the effect of potential sanctions.

“This is something other countries are increasingly concerned about,” William Jackson, chief emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics, told the WSJ.

“Some are seeking to reduce their risk of possible sanctions on the use of dollars in trade. China is trying to act as a geopolitical counterweight.”

Yet sanctioned oil producers are not the only ones eager to ditch the dollar. China has also been active in replacing dollars in international trade with its own currency, which it seeks to make more global.

Earlier this month Nikkei Asia reported that the Chinese yuan had become the fourth most popular currency in international settlements in November, overtaking the Japanese yen. The report explained the development with the more active trade between Russia and China.

A month earlier, in October, China also completed the first cross-border payment for oil in digital yuan. Before that, state-owned oil companies made several oil and gas purchases paying for them in the Chinese currency rather than dollars.

Per JP Morgan data, there were 12 major commodity contracts that were settled in currencies different from the greenback this year, the WSJ reported, adding that this compared with seven such deals in 2022 and two in the period between 2015 and 2021.

Among the 2023 deals were one between the UAE and India for crude oil deliveries to be paid for in rupees, and another—a currency swap line—between Saudi Arabia and China worth $7 billion.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Spot LNG shipping rates, European prices fall further this week

Energy News Beat

Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet continued their downward trend this week, while European and Asian prices also decreased compared to the previous week.

Last week, both the Spark30S Atlantic and the Spark25S Pacific dropped below $100,000 per day.

“LNG freight rates have fallen for the fourth consecutive week, with a 6 percent week-on-week decrease for Atlantic rates and a 5 percent w-o-w decrease for Pacific rates,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday.

Image: Spark

Afghan said that the Atlantic rate decreased by $6,000 to $90,500 per day, whilst the Pacific rate decreased by $4,000 to $72,500 per day.

This is the lowest Spark25S Pacific year-end rate for the last four years, according to Afghan.

Rates continue to decline despite delays at the Panama Canal, and constraints at the Suez Canal due to attacks in the Red Sea.

Kpler said last week that at least eight LNG vessels re-routed away from the Red Sea towards the Cape of Good Hope amid ongoing security risks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month also declined from the last week.

The NWE DES LNG for January delivery was assessed last week at $10.206/MMBtu and at a $0.810/MMBtu discount to the TTF.

“The SparkNWE DES LNG price for January delivery is assessed at $9.925/MMBtu and at a $0.850/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said on Friday.

Image: Spark

He said this is a $0.282/MMBtu decrease in DES LNG price, and the discount to the TTF widened by $0.04/MMBtu, when compared to last week’s January prices.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in a report this week that Europe’s delivered imports of LNG in December were at 10.36 million mt as of December 27, or around 94 percent of the November level, which was the highest since May.

The US is supplier of 53 percent of the total, with some 13 percent coming from Russia and 8 percent from Algeria. Qatar also contributed around 8 percent of the supply.

Platts said demand remains muted as inventories across Europe remain comfortable.

Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that gas storages in the EU were 86.98 percent full on December 28 and 93.94 percent in the UK.

According to Platts data, JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, also dropped from the last week.

JKM for February settled at $11.935/MMBtu on Thursday.

State-run Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) said in a report earlier this week that Asian spot LNG prices continued to decline due to low demand and ample supply.

This month, JOGMEC did not publish both the contract-based and the arrival-based monthly spot LNG price for November as there were less than two companies that imported spot LNG.

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U.S. shale growth could exceed forecasts in 2024

Energy News Beat

Oil Price

U.S. crude oil production has overwhelmingly exceeded earlier forecasts and has grown at a much faster pace this year, offsetting much of the OPEC+ efforts to push up prices by coordinated supply reductions.

U.S. production growth is expected to continue into the new year, thanks to further gains in efficiency and higher spending and production plans by the U.S. supermajors that have just announced megamerger deals.

Some analysts predict that the U.S. oil output increase will slacken in 2024.

But others, including industry officials, see the estimates of production growth by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) as too conservative for 2024, and believe that U.S. shale production could top projections again.

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