Energy News Beat
The consultancy estimates Australian LNG export revenue reached A$4.94 billion ($3.13 billion) last month.
EnergyQuest said this was lower than A$5.70 billion in January 2025. This reflects a 19 percent decrease compared to February 2024, when revenue was A$6.09 billion.
Western Australia projects earned export revenue of A$2.75 billion. Queensland projects brought in A$1.59 billion, and Northern Territory projects earned A$0.60 billion.
According to the consultancy, February 2025 shipments were 79.1 Mtpa on an annualized basis,
This compares to 82 Mt during 2024, 81.1 Mtpa for the 2023 calendar year, and 80.3 Mtpa for January 2025.
Also, February 2025 shipments represented 91.8 percent of nameplate capacity.
The consultancy noted that the LNG supply outlook has changed significantly in the last two years.
Back in 2023, the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook forecast there would soon be a “glut” of LNG supply. The agency said this glut would start in 2025 and run to 2030.
The IEA estimated the new capacity would be equivalent to 45 percent of existing global supply. Most of the increase would be seen from 2025-2027. Consequently, the increase in supply would see prices drop by almost 80 percent from 2022.
EnergyQuest said the IEA now expects global LNG supply to grow by less than 2 percent in 2025. This compares to an average growth rate of 8 percent between 2016 and 2020. Also, global gas demand reached an all-time high in 2024 and is expected to expand further in 2025.
Industry forecasts paint a similar picture over the longer term, pointing to ongoing demand growth. They indicate the need for increases in supply beyond 2030, the consultancy said.
Woodside, for example, expects LNG demand to exceed supply from the 2030s. An additional 90 Mtpa of supply will be required by 2034.
Shell’s latest LNG outlook says global demand for LNG will increase 60 percent above current levels by 2040. This increase will be driven by economic growth in Asia, the impact of artificial intelligence, and the need to cut emissions in heavy industry and transportation.
Shell expects demand will rise by between 223-311 Mtpa by 2040. Meanwhile, supply is expected to rise by 170 Mtpa by 2030, meaning more supply will be needed in the 2030s.
The latest forecasts, therefore, suggest that any supply glut may be small and transitory. This is because demand for LNG continues to grow and new supply is needed, the consultancy said.
“There is, of course, uncertainty in each of these outlooks. But for the time being the world’s appetite for natural gas shows no signs of abating. Additionally, the addition of new net global supply is facing challenges and delays (something that is not unheard of in the gas industry),” the consultancy added.
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