Energy News Beat
ENB Pub Note: This is an excellent time to talk about the fundamentals of the global oil and gas market. For years, the fundamentals were impacted by imperfect reporting from different sources, sanctions and weaponization of the US Dollar, and the response from Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and other countries. The Dark Fleet is well over 1,000 estimated ships and has spread over into the LNG market. When large countries like China or the US need money, they print currency. Countries like Iran, Venezuela, or Russia need money; they just drill for oil and sell on the gray market outside their production quotas. I have been seeing that we will see more accurate numbers, less weaponization of the US Dollar, and a positive effect on shrinking the dark fleet. The benefactor could be Saudi Arabia and the global oil markets. If India keeps growing and China remains stable through the tariff wars, we will see $75 to $85 oil again sooner than others expect.
The real questions we do not have answers to yet are in the growth in manufacturing in the United States, EU, and the UK. The EU and UK will focus on military equipment, but will they be offloading manufacturing to China like cars? This is a massive question with profound implications.
From Oil Price.com – Credit Michael Kern
Oil market fundamentals appear to have entirely given way to sentiment recently, with Trump’s tariff war with China driving prices down.
Friday, April 11th, 2025
This week, one may not have noticed that oil markets are still backwardated and that refiners are still buying oil because the general sentiment in oil markets soured to its lowest level in years. Seemingly ceaseless salvos of incremental import tariffs between the US and China frightened the oil markets to such an extent that even Trump’s 90-day delay on implementation for everyone except Beijing failed to trigger any change, leaving ICE Brent stuck around $63 per barrel.
EIA Warns of 2025 Demand Slowdown. The US Energy Information Administration lowered its global demand forecast for this and next year, expecting consumption to rise by 900,000 b/d in 2025, whilst lowering its annual Brent forecast to 68 per barrel, some 6 per barrel lower than its previous forecast.
US-China Trade War Has No End. In an escalatory spiral of import tariffs, China’s decision to mirror Trump’s tariff hike and take its tariff on US goods to 84% led to the US President lifting tariffs to an unprecedented 145%, debilitating a $585 billion trading relationship and, in turn, triggering a 125% riposte from Beijing.
Keystone Flows Shut After Dakota Oil Spill. The 622,000 b/d Keystone pipeline carrying Canadian heavy crude all the way down to Cushing was shut down after an oil spill saw the release of almost 3,500 barrels of oil in North Dakota, restricting heavy sour crude deliveries to US Midwest refiners.
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