After U.S. Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites: Will Iran Retaliate, and What Could Happen to Oil Prices?

Energy News Beat

On June 21, 2025, the U.S. military, under President Donald Trump’s directive, struck three key Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz—escalating an already volatile conflict between Israel and Iran. These strikes, aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear ambitions, have raised global concerns about Tehran’s next move and the potential fallout for energy markets. The big questions now are: Will Iran retaliate? Could we see terrorist attacks on U.S. soil or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz? And what would these scenarios mean for oil prices? Let’s break it down.

President Donald J. Trump Delivers Address to the Nation, June 21, 2025 https://t.co/yutRDvtWv0

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 22, 2025

Background on Fordow, the Iranian nuclear site the US just bombed https://t.co/kRYXNFwgDE

— Josh Young (@Josh_Young_1) June 22, 2025

Foreign policy expert witnesses the blast in Iran firsthand and captured it on video https://t.co/d1bx5XjRJi

— HustleBitch (@HustleBitch_) June 22, 2025

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Will Iran Retaliate?

Iran’s response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes is almost certain, but the form and scale remain unclear. Tehran has a history of asymmetric warfare, leveraging proxies like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and militias in Iraq and Syria to strike U.S. and allied interests. Recent reports indicate Iran is preparing missiles for potential attacks on U.S. bases in the region, with American troops on high alert.

Suzanne Maloney from the Brookings Institution suggests Iran may resort to “small-scale terrorist attacks” or cyberattacks as escalation options, though these carry risks of provoking a stronger U.S. military response. A more extreme scenario involves Iran targeting U.S. soil with terrorist attacks, though this is less likely due to logistical challenges and the severe retaliation it would invite. Iran’s leadership, while hardline, has historically avoided direct attacks on U.S. territory, preferring to operate through proxies in the Middle East.

You are watching A scripted movie, and a master chess player who just made a massive move cornering Israel and the deep state!

We know these warmongers are not going to stop and Trump just left them with zero reason to continue what they’re doing…

Enjoy the show! God wins… pic.twitter.com/4hchfR8ydN

— Jordan Clark (@itsjordanclark) June 22, 2025

The most significant threat, however, is Iran’s repeated warnings to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade. Iranian officials, including Ali Yazdikhah and Esmail Kosari, have explicitly threatened this move if the U.S. joins Israel in further military action. Such a closure would be a high-stakes gambit, but Tehran sees it as a strategic lever to disrupt the global economy and pressure the West.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Global Energy Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, handles approximately 20-26% of the world’s oil trade—around 20 million barrels per day in 2024. Closing it, even partially, would send shockwaves through energy markets. Iran could achieve this through naval mines, drone attacks, or targeted interceptions of tankers, as it has done in the past during the 1980s Tanker War and the 2019 seizure of the British-flagged Stena Impero.

Analysts like Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets warn that Iran could lay mines to make the strait too dangerous for commercial shipping, effectively halting oil flows. While a full closure is considered unlikely due to the U.S. Navy’s presence in the region (notably the 5th Fleet in Bahrain), even temporary disruptions could cause significant price spikes. Iran’s own economy, reliant on oil exports through the strait, would also suffer, making a prolonged closure a “self-inflicted wound.”

America dropped six GBU-57 bunker buster bombs on the Fordow nuclear site pic.twitter.com/LaWrHm0c2d

— Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) June 22, 2025

Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Soil: A Low-Probability, High-Impact Risk

The possibility of Iran orchestrating terrorist attacks on U.S. soil is a graver but less probable scenario. Tehran’s proxies have focused on regional targets, such as U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria, rather than domestic American targets. A direct attack on U.S. soil would require sophisticated planning and coordination, which could overextend Iran’s capabilities and invite devastating retaliation. However, the psychological and economic impact of even a small-scale attack—say, targeting critical infrastructure like pipelines or refineries—could amplify market fears, driving oil prices higher.

Oil Price Implications

Oil markets are already jittery. Brent crude surged 15% to $90 per barrel since early May 2025, with pre-market spikes of 13% following Israeli strikes on Iranian sites. The U.S. strikes have added a “geopolitical risk premium” to prices, and further escalation could push them much higher. Here’s how different scenarios could play out:

Limited Retaliation (Regional Proxy Attacks or Cyberattacks): If Iran sticks to missile strikes on U.S. bases or cyberattacks, oil prices could see a short-term spike to $100-$110 per barrel. Markets would stabilize if disruptions to oil infrastructure are avoided, as seen when prices settled lower after U.S. sanctions signaled a diplomatic approach.
Partial Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz (Targeted Attacks or Mining): A partial blockade, such as drone attacks or limited mining, could push oil prices to $120-$130 per barrel, as predicted by JP Morgan. Deutsche Bank warns that a surge above $120 could trigger a global growth slowdown akin to past oil shocks in 1973, 1990, or 2022. Asia (China, India, South Korea) and Europe (reliant on Qatari LNG) would face severe energy inflation.
Full Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: A complete shutdown, though unlikely, would be catastrophic. Oil prices could skyrocket to $150 or higher, doubling from current levels and grinding the global economy to a halt. This scenario would likely trigger U.S. military intervention to reopen the strait, escalating the conflict further.
Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Soil: If Iran or its proxies targeted U.S. energy infrastructure, oil prices could spike to $120-$150 per barrel, depending on the scale and duration of disruptions. The psychological impact would amplify market volatility, even if physical supply losses were minimal.

Why a Full Closure Is Unlikely—But Not Impossible

While Iran has the naval assets to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a full closure would provoke a swift U.S. response, potentially involving bombardment of Iranian naval sites. The Congressional Research Service notes that an outright closure is a “low probability event” due to the risk of alienating allies like China, which relies on Iranian oil shipped through the strait. Eni’s CEO has also suggested that oil markets currently view a closure as unlikely, reflecting cautious optimism.

BREAKING: U.S Federal Authorities have upgraded monitoring of potential Iranian sleeper cells in the United States.

Stay vigilant.

— Ryan Fournier (@RyanAFournier) June 22, 2025

However, Iran’s leadership may feel cornered. With its nuclear program severely damaged and domestic pressure mounting, Tehran could opt for a dramatic gesture to assert leverage. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment describes such a move as the “strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing”—capable of massive damage but potentially fatal to Iran’s own interests.

What’s Next for Energy Markets?

Investors are already reacting, with energy ETFs like the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) and Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) gaining 12% and 9%, respectively, in June 2025. Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer at Cresset Capital, warns that a Strait of Hormuz closure “could change everything” for energy prices and inflation. For now, markets expect oil prices to spike on initial news but level off unless sustained disruptions occur.

The U.S. and its allies are pushing for diplomacy, with European-led talks in Geneva aiming to de-escalate tensions. President Trump has urged Iran to “make a deal” to avoid further conflict, but Tehran’s hardliners are calling for withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and escalation.

Conclusion

Iran’s retaliation to the U.S. strikes is likely, with options ranging from regional proxy attacks to the high-stakes threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz. While terrorist attacks on U.S. soil remain a remote possibility, their impact on oil markets would be severe. A partial disruption of the strait could push oil prices to $120-$130 per barrel, while a full closure could see prices hit $150 or more, triggering a global economic crisis. Energy markets are on edge, and the next few weeks will be critical in determining whether diplomacy or escalation prevails. Stay tuned to Energy News Beat for updates on this developing story.

Disclaimer: This article is based on current information and analysis as of June 21, 2025. Geopolitical events are fluid, and outcomes may vary. Always consult multiple sources for investment decisions.